live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:18
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1455.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Navy (216.0)PatA41-59W100%0.0
11-16North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH104-54W100%0.0
11-21Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N63-74W100%0.0
11-22Purdue (15.0)B10N70-85L0%0.0
11-25Vermont (126.0)AEH86-62W100%0.0
11-27Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH70-50W100%0.0
12-1Richmond (121.0)A10H76-56W100%0.0
12-8Miami FL (9.0)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
12-12Michigan St. (12.0)B10A58-52L0%0.0
12-19Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12N72-70W100%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH89-65W100%0.0
12-29Florida St. (82.0)ACCH71-73L0%0.0
1-2Georgia (62.0)SECH77-63W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee (143.0)SECA83-69L0%0.0
1-9LSU (94.0)SECH68-62W100%0.0
1-12Texas A&M (18.0)SECA71-68L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi (96.0)SECA71-80W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH81-78W100%0.0
1-23Auburn (175.0)SECH95-63W100%0.0
1-26Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA60-59L0%0.0
1-30West Virginia (10.0)B12H88-71W100%0.0
2-3Arkansas (133.0)SECH87-83W100%0.0
2-6Kentucky (11.0)SECA80-61L0%0.0
2-9Mississippi (96.0)SECH77-72W100%0.0
2-13Alabama (73.0)SECH55-61L0%0.0
2-16Georgia (62.0)SECA53-57W100%0.0
2-20South Carolina (65.0)SECA73-69L0%0.0
2-23Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH74-87L0%0.0
2-27LSU (94.0)SECA96-91L0%0.0
3-1Kentucky (11.0)SECH79-88L0%0.0
3-5Missouri (222.0)SECA72-82W100%0.0
3-10Arkansas (133.0)SECN68-61W100%0.0
3-11Texas A&M (18.0)SECN72-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.1026.1056.0356.033.153.15
Texas A&MSEC3.763.7675.0075.001.881.88
KentuckySEC3.713.7175.0075.001.851.85
LSUSEC3.683.6858.0658.060.590.59
GeorgiaSEC3.673.6763.3363.330.980.98
VanderbiltSEC3.633.6356.6756.670.480.48
ArkansasSEC3.613.6153.3353.330.240.24
MississippiSEC3.603.6066.6766.671.201.20
TennesseeSEC2.272.2742.4242.42-0.34-0.34
Mississippi St.SEC2.242.2446.6746.67-0.15-0.15
AlabamaSEC2.222.2254.8454.840.210.21
AuburnSEC2.192.1936.6736.67-0.58-0.58
MissouriSEC2.172.1733.3333.33-0.72-0.72
South CarolinaSEC2.152.1573.3373.331.001.00
PurdueB101.651.6575.7675.760.850.85
JacksonvilleASun1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Florida St.ACC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6157.1457.140.230.23
Miami FLACC1.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
West VirginiaB121.591.5978.7978.790.910.91
Oklahoma St.B121.581.5838.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Michigan St.B101.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
RichmondA101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
NavyPat1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
Saint Joseph'sA101.541.5481.8281.820.980.98
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
VermontAE1.541.5462.5062.500.380.38
Kansas St.B120.280.2851.5251.520.010.01
BaylorB120.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
KansasB120.230.2387.8887.880.170.17
North FloridaASun0.230.2363.3363.330.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.2231.0331.03-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Wake ForestACC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Texas TechB120.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
TexasB120.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
StetsonASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
OklahomaB120.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
LipscombASun0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1220.8320.83-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
FordhamA100.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
NebraskaB100.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
AmericanPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
UCLAP120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02