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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:1.0
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:11
Current Record:32-2
Expected Record:32-2
Current Conf Record:21-0
Expected Conf Record:21-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
32-21.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8North Florida (189.0)ASunH77-69W100%0.0
11-12Wisconsin (6.0)B10A59-53L0%0.0
11-16Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH86-56W100%0.0
11-18Southern (171.0)SWACH67-53W100%0.0
11-21Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH79-59W100%0.0
11-25Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA60-86W100%0.0
11-29Florida St. (54.0)ACCH67-66W100%0.0
12-2Connecticut (22.0)AmerA65-64L0%0.0
12-10Kansas (3.0)B12H67-61W100%0.0
12-17Memphis (37.0)AmerN75-77W100%0.0
12-21Fresno St. (117.0)MWCN66-49W100%0.0
12-29Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH76-34W100%0.0
1-4Richmond (75.0)A10H67-58W100%0.0
1-8South Carolina (140.0)SECH74-58W100%0.0
1-11Arkansas (77.0)SECA82-84W100%0.0
1-14Georgia (74.0)SECH72-50W100%0.0
1-18Auburn (169.0)SECA61-68W100%0.0
1-23Alabama (124.0)SECA62-68W100%0.0
1-25Tennessee (42.0)SECH67-41W100%0.0
1-30Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA51-62W100%0.0
2-1Texas A&M (148.0)SECH69-36W100%0.0
2-4Missouri (49.0)SECH68-58W100%0.0
2-8Alabama (124.0)SECH78-69W100%0.0
2-11Tennessee (42.0)SECA58-67W100%0.0
2-15Kentucky (17.0)SECA59-69W100%0.0
2-19Auburn (169.0)SECH71-66W100%0.0
2-22Mississippi (94.0)SECA71-75W100%0.0
2-25Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA54-57W100%0.0
3-1LSU (83.0)SECH79-61W100%0.0
3-4South Carolina (140.0)SECA46-72W100%0.0
3-8Kentucky (17.0)SECH84-65W100%0.0
3-14Missouri (49.0)SECN72-49W100%0.0
3-15Tennessee (42.0)SECN56-49W100%0.0
3-16Kentucky (17.0)SECN61-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.2426.2496.0596.0524.1724.17
TennesseeSEC5.005.0068.9768.971.901.90
KentuckySEC4.964.9677.4277.422.722.72
South CarolinaSEC3.633.6343.7543.75-0.45-0.45
AuburnSEC3.603.6050.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC3.583.5870.9770.971.501.50
AlabamaSEC3.563.5641.3841.38-0.61-0.61
LSUSEC2.222.2261.2961.290.500.50
MississippiSEC2.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
ArkansasSEC2.202.2067.7467.740.780.78
GeorgiaSEC2.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
Mississippi St.SEC2.152.1543.7543.75-0.27-0.27
Texas A&MSEC2.152.1554.8454.840.210.21
VanderbiltSEC2.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer1.581.5873.3373.330.740.74
Arkansas Little RockSB1.571.5744.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.571.5773.3373.330.730.73
SouthernSWAC1.541.5457.1457.140.220.22
JacksonvilleASun1.541.5437.0437.04-0.40-0.40
Savannah St.MEAC1.541.5437.9337.93-0.37-0.37
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
Florida St.ACC1.501.5061.2961.290.340.34
Fresno St.MWC1.471.4750.0050.000.000.00
KansasB121.471.4775.0075.000.740.74
RichmondA101.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
WisconsinB101.471.4778.1278.120.830.83
USC UpstateASun0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
BaylorB120.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
XavierBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
LouisvilleAmer0.180.1885.2985.290.130.13
Northern KentuckyASun0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
ClemsonACC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
MercerASun0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
LipscombASun0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
IllinoisB100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
SMUAmer0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
MinnesotaB100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Michigan St.B100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Texas TechB120.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DuquesneA100.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
IowaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.040.0410.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0414.2914.29-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00