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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:11.2
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:1
Current Record:14-4
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-42.00.53%
26-53.34.76%
25-65.814.12%
24-78.624.99%
23-811.725.90%
22-915.118.28%
21-1018.48.20%
20-1122.42.61%
19-1225.60.48%
18-1330.90.11%
17-1440.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida Gulf Coast (98.7)ASunN80-59W100%0.0
11-13Mercer (191.2)SCN76-54W100%0.0
11-17St. Bonaventure (93.6)A10N73-66W100%0.0
11-21Belmont (84.1)OVCN78-61W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (62.2)BEN81-76W100%0.0
11-25Gonzaga (6.3)WCCN72-77L0%0.0
11-27Miami FL (60.6)ACCN65-56W100%0.0
12-1North Florida (262.6)ASunA60-91W100%0.0
12-6Duke (15.6)ACCN84-74L0%0.0
12-11Florida St. (13.2)ACCA83-78L0%0.0
12-17Charlotte (231.9)CUSAN87-46W100%0.0
12-21Little Rock (208.6)SBH94-71W100%0.0
12-29Arkansas (44.2)SECA72-81W100%0.0
1-3Mississippi (84.4)SECH70-63W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee (80.9)SECH83-70W100%0.0
1-10Alabama (87.3)SECA67-80W100%0.0
1-14Georgia (47.1)SECH80-76W100%0.0
1-18South Carolina (25.0)SECA57-53L0%0.0
1-21Vanderbilt (92.6)SECH0-087%12.6
1-25LSU (151.7)SECA0-088%13.3
1-28Oklahoma (118.6)B12A0-066%4.7
2-2Missouri (255.5)SECH0-097%20.2
2-4Kentucky (5.3)SECH0-039%-3.0
2-7Georgia (47.1)SECA0-061%3.2
2-11Texas A&M (108.1)SECH0-085%11.6
2-14Auburn (103.7)SECA0-077%8.4
2-18Mississippi St. (119.1)SECA0-076%8.0
2-21South Carolina (25.0)SECH0-073%6.8
2-25Kentucky (5.3)SECA0-020%-9.2
3-1Arkansas (44.2)SECH0-080%9.3
3-4Vanderbilt (92.6)SECA0-072%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.4526.1080.9577.6416.3714.43
VanderbiltSEC0.333.8444.4444.13-0.04-0.45
ArkansasSEC2.943.8182.3574.441.901.86
KentuckySEC0.153.8188.8988.700.122.95
South CarolinaSEC3.103.8181.2575.821.931.97
GeorgiaSEC2.943.8168.7561.331.100.86
AuburnSEC0.322.3166.6756.480.110.30
TennesseeSEC3.092.3050.0050.090.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.242.2752.9452.260.010.10
LSUSEC0.162.2552.9439.720.01-0.46
MississippiSEC3.022.2264.7156.870.890.31
AlabamaSEC2.782.2268.7559.691.040.43
Mississippi St.SEC0.162.2270.5959.440.070.42
MissouriSEC0.242.2229.4126.71-0.10-1.03
North FloridaASun2.941.8025.0032.43-1.47-0.63
Miami FLACC2.861.7575.0062.641.430.44
DukeACC2.851.7276.4772.981.510.79
Florida St.ACC2.851.7288.8978.862.220.99
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.781.6768.7572.541.040.75
Seton HallBE2.861.6770.5960.241.180.34
BelmontOVC2.781.6680.0077.451.670.91
St. BonaventureA102.861.6470.5965.031.180.49
GonzagaWCC2.861.64100.0097.232.861.55
Little RockSB2.851.6460.0052.930.570.10
MercerSC2.781.6435.2944.60-0.82-0.18
OklahomaB120.001.6447.0641.46-0.00-0.28
CharlotteCUSA2.781.6146.6745.32-0.19-0.15
ClemsonACC0.320.2961.1159.230.070.05
LipscombASun0.340.2444.4450.48-0.040.00
USC UpstateASun0.330.2052.9451.300.020.01
TexasB120.160.1938.8935.38-0.04-0.05
KansasB120.160.1994.4481.800.140.12
North CarolinaACC0.150.1884.2180.600.110.11
SyracuseACC0.250.1657.8952.520.040.01
Wake ForestACC0.240.1661.1155.580.050.02
Iowa St.B120.160.1664.7161.830.050.04
Georgia TechACC0.240.1661.1147.020.05-0.01
MarquetteBE0.240.1666.6761.530.080.04
Virginia TechACC0.230.1677.7862.530.130.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.240.1527.7832.97-0.11-0.05
StetsonASun0.160.1529.4130.28-0.07-0.06
FIUCUSA0.250.1411.7621.45-0.19-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.330.1422.2221.17-0.18-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.1458.8261.440.010.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1483.3383.150.110.09
Appalachian St.SB0.330.1428.5731.47-0.14-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1375.0074.870.080.07
George WashingtonA100.240.1352.6348.070.01-0.01
DaytonA100.160.1376.4776.940.080.07
LouisvilleACC0.080.1384.2179.280.050.08
MinnesotaB100.150.1378.9570.150.090.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.1252.9450.590.000.00
NJITASun0.080.1238.8942.49-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1247.3745.06-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.240.1262.5060.090.060.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.1164.7169.700.070.04
DavidsonA100.160.1152.9453.560.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1168.7570.270.060.04
BaylorB120.080.1194.1280.880.070.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1170.5973.700.070.05
FurmanSC0.160.1152.9458.360.010.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.170.1162.5062.710.040.03
WoffordSC0.160.1131.2540.50-0.06-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1157.8957.540.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1125.0022.32-0.08-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.170.1143.7543.71-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.160.1163.1657.700.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.1147.3745.83-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1125.0034.04-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1114.2929.27-0.12-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.240.1120.0030.55-0.14-0.04
MemphisAmer0.160.1173.6867.200.080.04
Texas TechB120.000.1177.7865.330.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.1184.2178.340.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.1147.3741.47-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1152.9450.580.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.1168.4252.190.030.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.1047.3734.50-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1084.2176.540.110.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.1040.0051.38-0.020.00
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0935.2941.48-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0931.5833.34-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0931.5832.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0920.0026.44-0.10-0.04
La SalleA100.160.0868.7564.060.060.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0861.1162.280.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.160.0864.7167.120.050.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.0822.2227.15-0.09-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0826.3232.63-0.04-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.170.0864.7165.930.050.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.5321.80-0.04-0.05
SamfordSC0.150.0864.7160.050.040.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0843.7541.41-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0889.4784.510.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.0853.3355.990.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.160.0822.2229.94-0.09-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0877.7862.260.000.02
Saint LouisA100.160.0827.7824.32-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.700.000.05
XavierBE0.000.0872.2267.680.000.03
CreightonBE0.150.0894.4484.720.140.06
MassachusettsA100.150.0863.1660.390.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0847.0646.29-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.0876.4763.630.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0860.0061.270.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0842.1143.49-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0868.4268.060.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0818.7535.73-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0863.1651.610.020.00
UCLAP120.000.0895.0089.690.000.06
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0877.7877.270.050.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0882.3576.300.050.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0652.6352.920.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0641.1846.18-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0655.5660.070.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0625.0029.15-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0658.8264.790.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0650.0055.770.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.160.0664.7156.100.050.01
SienaMAAC0.160.0640.0045.18-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.160.0647.3741.50-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0635.2941.77-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0616.6713.65-0.06-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0618.7524.05-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.150.0683.3376.940.100.03
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.710.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.0621.0528.89-0.10-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0625.0028.40-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0647.0644.32-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0636.8435.66-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0688.8987.310.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0650.0043.680.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0663.1660.550.020.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3328.99-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0647.0648.13-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0670.5964.080.030.02
VMISC0.080.0613.3315.24-0.06-0.04
ElonCAA0.160.0550.0051.340.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0561.1164.320.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.160.0556.2551.810.020.00
George MasonA100.150.0564.7156.510.050.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.0542.1141.75-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.160.0546.1546.15-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.080.0542.1130.39-0.01-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0541.1849.23-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0552.6348.210.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0550.0051.660.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0563.1658.150.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0575.0074.450.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0560.0072.810.000.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0572.2274.630.040.03
OregonP120.160.0588.8983.420.130.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0565.0055.280.020.01
RutgersB100.160.0555.5642.900.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0535.2928.97-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0535.2944.13-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0545.0038.54-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.160.0555.5648.060.02-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0522.2220.60-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0561.1169.300.020.02
VCUA100.000.0573.6870.630.000.02
VermontAE0.080.0575.0077.360.040.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0594.7489.270.070.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0578.9582.980.000.04
WisconsinB100.080.0583.3381.320.050.03
IllinoisB100.070.0561.1153.360.020.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0547.3744.51-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0570.0071.890.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0564.7166.910.020.02
High PointBSth0.000.0537.5042.27-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0540.0050.05-0.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0564.7162.600.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0562.5063.260.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0552.6347.720.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0326.3228.81-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0322.2223.82-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0331.5835.67-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0335.2937.32-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0353.3361.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0326.3236.97-0.04-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0350.0057.040.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0333.3333.28-0.03-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0361.1156.230.020.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0326.3229.57-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0388.8973.830.070.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0317.6524.51-0.06-0.01
BryantNEC0.080.0321.0533.56-0.04-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0340.0044.98-0.02-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0311.1122.97-0.06-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0316.6720.43-0.06-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0347.0640.46-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0341.1844.82-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0358.8264.380.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0355.0054.820.010.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0353.3345.980.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0358.8251.180.020.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0340.0044.67-0.02-0.00
WashingtonP120.080.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0328.5734.62-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.036.2511.88-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0327.7830.73-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0338.8942.65-0.02-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0362.5063.120.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0337.5044.96-0.02-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0337.5044.22-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.080.0368.4264.450.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0311.1116.28-0.06-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0373.6869.690.000.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0333.3330.90-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0357.8955.950.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0341.1846.85-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0338.8935.26-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0343.7546.21-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.080.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0352.9463.420.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5034.55-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0326.3227.72-0.04-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0331.2538.34-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0335.2939.22-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0342.8647.98-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0312.5013.05-0.06-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0361.1157.870.020.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0342.8650.49-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0377.7867.020.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0338.8939.92-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0388.8986.040.060.02
USCP120.000.0380.0071.930.000.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0336.8433.55-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0316.6723.07-0.05-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0361.1163.070.020.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0063.140.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0320.0020.95-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0335.0036.31-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0331.5829.24-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0350.0058.290.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0340.0038.59-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0357.8949.820.01-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0378.9576.890.000.01
TempleAmer0.070.0350.0053.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0347.3743.68-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0346.6747.54-0.01-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0375.0075.420.040.01