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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:24.3
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:10
Current Record:16-8
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-811.44.25%
22-915.717.72%
21-1020.431.48%
20-1126.027.69%
19-1236.214.47%
18-1348.83.83%
17-1460.90.52%
16-1571.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Navy (184.8)PatA41-59W100%0.0
11-16North Carolina A&T (334.5)MEACH104-54W100%0.0
11-21Saint Joseph's (33.2)A10N63-74W100%0.0
11-22Purdue (15.3)B10N70-85L0%0.0
11-25Vermont (161.2)AEH86-62W100%0.0
11-27Florida Gulf Coast (215.7)ASunH70-50W100%0.0
12-1Richmond (109.6)A10H76-56W100%0.0
12-8Miami FL (11.4)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
12-12Michigan St. (19.0)B10A58-52L0%0.0
12-19Oklahoma St. (149.4)B12N72-70W100%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (243.7)ASunH89-65W100%0.0
12-29Florida St. (46.5)ACCH71-73L0%0.0
1-2Georgia (84.8)SECH77-63W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee (111.3)SECA83-69L0%0.0
1-9LSU (82.1)SECH68-62W100%0.0
1-12Texas A&M (22.8)SECA71-68L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi (111.4)SECA71-80W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi St. (162.8)SECH81-78W100%0.0
1-23Auburn (167.7)SECH95-63W100%0.0
1-26Vanderbilt (54.2)SECA60-59L0%0.0
1-30West Virginia (10.0)B12H88-71W100%0.0
2-3Arkansas (101.6)SECH87-83W100%0.0
2-6Kentucky (17.5)SECA80-61L0%0.0
2-9Mississippi (111.4)SECH77-72W100%0.0
2-13Alabama (80.8)SECH0-086%11.8
2-16Georgia (84.8)SECA0-065%4.2
2-20South Carolina (47.2)SECA0-051%0.3
2-23Vanderbilt (54.2)SECH0-058%2.3
2-27LSU (82.1)SECA0-057%1.9
3-1Kentucky (17.5)SECH0-054%1.0
3-5Missouri (221.1)SECA0-084%10.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.1626.0966.6766.988.728.86
KentuckySEC2.493.8173.9172.581.191.72
VanderbiltSEC2.483.8154.5559.110.230.69
MississippiSEC4.443.7868.1862.991.610.98
LSUSEC2.493.7868.1862.940.900.98
GeorgiaSEC2.443.7861.9058.100.580.61
AuburnSEC2.482.3040.9136.65-0.45-0.61
Texas A&MSEC2.452.2877.2777.121.331.23
Mississippi St.SEC2.522.2745.4545.29-0.23-0.21
MissouriSEC0.402.2534.7830.81-0.12-0.86
AlabamaSEC0.352.2559.0954.610.060.21
TennesseeSEC2.442.2547.8346.41-0.11-0.16
South CarolinaSEC0.362.2286.3680.160.261.34
ArkansasSEC2.492.2252.1754.870.110.22
PurdueB102.261.7479.1777.201.320.95
JacksonvilleASun2.271.7352.3851.740.110.06
Florida St.ACC2.221.7268.1863.680.810.47
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.221.7050.0054.130.000.14
Miami FLACC2.171.6981.8276.751.380.91
Oklahoma St.B122.171.6947.8343.67-0.09-0.21
West VirginiaB122.171.6982.6180.701.421.04
RichmondA102.171.6657.1456.350.310.21
NavyPat2.131.6465.2264.520.650.48
Saint Joseph'sA102.131.6486.3681.541.551.03
Michigan St.B102.121.6479.1780.981.241.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.121.6430.4334.27-0.83-0.52
VermontAE2.121.6454.1756.750.180.22
Kansas St.B120.310.2660.8758.300.070.04
BaylorB120.270.2472.7366.400.120.08
KansasB120.260.2382.6179.190.170.14
USC UpstateASun0.270.2322.7323.24-0.15-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.2321.7423.40-0.10-0.12
Wake ForestACC0.270.2143.4840.46-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.240.2065.2267.130.070.07
ClemsonACC0.180.1958.3358.310.030.03
Texas TechB120.220.1859.0953.180.040.01
TexasB120.180.1866.6762.200.060.04
StetsonASun0.240.1723.8127.67-0.12-0.08
NJITASun0.140.1754.1755.280.010.02
MassachusettsA100.230.1640.9139.33-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.180.1652.1751.510.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.130.1652.0048.860.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1650.0049.090.00-0.00
DaytonA100.090.1686.9682.300.070.10
George MasonA100.220.1633.3333.68-0.07-0.05
OklahomaB120.130.1686.9682.650.100.10
LipscombASun0.100.1525.0029.30-0.05-0.06
La SalleA100.190.1420.0020.46-0.11-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1431.8236.14-0.05-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.1379.1776.070.080.07
IowaB100.210.1382.6180.550.140.08
NebraskaB100.170.1354.1751.880.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1345.4547.57-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.130.1373.9170.050.060.05
Ohio St.B100.090.1360.0055.500.020.01
TCUB120.170.1345.8339.34-0.01-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.1120.0019.68-0.05-0.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1173.9169.970.060.04
Notre DameACC0.050.1170.8367.790.020.04
SyracuseACC0.090.1166.6762.530.030.03
VCUA100.140.1173.9173.970.070.05
VirginiaACC0.130.1183.3378.470.090.06
AlbanyAE0.130.1176.0076.310.070.06
AmericanPat0.090.1130.4331.91-0.03-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1154.1755.600.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1163.6460.920.040.02
DukeACC0.090.1175.0071.800.040.05
FordhamA100.140.1155.0052.190.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.130.1171.4368.940.060.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.1181.8282.630.060.07
George WashingtonA100.090.1178.2674.410.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1029.1733.74-0.05-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1017.6526.57-0.11-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.1060.8755.830.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0825.0025.08-0.02-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.0827.2731.05-0.06-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0871.4368.760.060.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0865.0063.410.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0831.8232.69-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.090.0868.0067.980.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0843.4850.65-0.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0825.0033.22-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.090.0824.0026.33-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.090.0854.1754.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0820.8324.09-0.05-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.130.0829.1726.74-0.06-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.130.0856.5256.990.020.01
DavidsonA100.050.0860.0057.940.010.01
LehighPat0.090.0836.3639.78-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0824.0024.55-0.07-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.0845.8346.64-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.130.0872.7367.630.060.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0838.1037.68-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0887.5081.810.030.05
ButlerBE0.130.0869.5767.150.050.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0822.7327.22-0.07-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0840.0038.98-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0860.8760.820.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0856.5262.790.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0839.1341.10-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.0858.3357.170.020.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0825.0023.40-0.02-0.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0854.1751.690.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0824.0025.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0852.0050.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0845.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0854.1750.940.010.00
MarylandB100.080.0887.5083.700.060.05
MichiganB100.080.0869.5766.220.030.03
MinnesotaB100.130.0826.0927.79-0.06-0.03
NorthwesternB100.040.0864.0062.060.010.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0046.740.00-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0821.7420.37-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.130.0865.2259.770.040.02
WoffordSC0.050.0843.4846.22-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.420.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0630.4332.36-0.04-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.550.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.33-0.02-0.03
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.7424.19-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0652.1754.170.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.660.030.04
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.460.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0554.5558.160.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0534.7840.91-0.03-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0543.4844.80-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0533.3334.01-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.040.0525.0026.75-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.50-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0565.2264.220.010.02
Holy CrossPat0.090.0539.1338.31-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0521.7423.00-0.02-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0557.8961.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0534.7837.17-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0533.3333.13-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0557.1453.990.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0583.3378.390.030.03
OregonP120.040.0582.6179.220.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0534.7835.65-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0523.8126.56-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0513.6418.15-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0560.8756.430.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0540.0043.44-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0536.3638.92-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0570.8369.490.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0522.7324.97-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.090.0569.5769.020.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0539.1337.81-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0558.3360.730.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0533.3335.06-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.63-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0572.2274.700.040.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0536.3633.54-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0514.2924.89-0.06-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0561.9065.300.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0547.8350.19-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.040.0565.2261.470.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0528.5732.73-0.04-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0537.5040.54-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0512.5012.90-0.07-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0557.8956.090.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0578.2676.810.050.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0569.5766.580.020.02
IndianaB100.000.0579.1774.040.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0545.4551.34-0.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0562.5056.050.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.210.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0517.6529.05-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0533.3334.22-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0513.6415.77-0.06-0.04
TroySB0.090.0523.8126.71-0.05-0.02
UCLAP120.040.0556.5253.270.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0565.2266.200.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.040.0556.5257.010.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.840.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.17-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.830.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.67-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.040.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.0912.24-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.040.0354.1754.060.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.320.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.590.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0319.0525.89-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.15-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0363.6462.150.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.020.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0336.3636.15-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0364.0064.140.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5832.01-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0360.8762.040.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.36-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.370.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.500.020.01
VMISC0.040.0315.0016.72-0.03-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5731.30-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0373.9176.720.000.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.680.020.01
AkronMAC0.040.0382.6181.140.030.02
ArizonaP120.000.0379.1778.350.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8639.22-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.590.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0359.0959.420.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.250.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0352.9452.080.000.00
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.81-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0356.5256.320.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0057.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.040.0375.0070.990.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0372.7372.110.020.01
StanfordP120.040.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0366.6762.650.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0368.1866.650.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.280.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.910.030.02