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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:21
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:7



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-77.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alabama St. (328.0)SWACH84-35W100%0.0
11-14Wisconsin (32.0)B10H74-56W100%0.0
11-18Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBN66-45W100%0.0
11-20Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH58-40W100%0.0
11-23Central Florida (103.0)CUSAH79-66W100%0.0
11-29Marquette (13.0)BEH82-49W100%0.0
12-5Florida St. (85.0)ACCA47-72W100%0.0
12-15Arizona (16.0)P12A65-64L0%0.0
12-19Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)SlndH82-43W100%0.0
12-22Kansas St. (19.0)B12A67-61L0%0.0
12-29Air Force (80.0)MWCN78-61W100%0.0
1-6Yale (198.0)IvyA58-79W100%0.0
1-9Georgia (140.0)SECH77-44W100%0.0
1-12Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA52-74W100%0.0
1-17Texas A&M (102.0)SECA47-68W100%0.0
1-19Missouri (36.0)SECH83-52W100%0.0
1-23Georgia (140.0)SECA47-64W100%0.0
1-26Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA47-82W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina (222.0)SECH75-36W100%0.0
2-2Mississippi (47.0)SECH78-64W100%0.0
2-5Arkansas (89.0)SECA80-69L0%0.0
2-9Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH83-58W100%0.0
2-12Kentucky (56.0)SECH69-52W100%0.0
2-16Auburn (252.0)SECA52-83W100%0.0
2-19Missouri (36.0)SECA63-60L0%0.0
2-23Arkansas (89.0)SECH71-54W100%0.0
2-26Tennessee (59.0)SECA64-58L0%0.0
3-2Alabama (60.0)SECH64-52W100%0.0
3-6Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH66-40W100%0.0
3-9Kentucky (56.0)SECA61-57L0%0.0
3-15Louisiana St. (86.0)SECN80-58W100%0.0
3-16Alabama (60.0)SECN61-51W100%0.0
3-17Mississippi (47.0)SECN63-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.1626.1683.2183.2117.3817.38
MississippiSEC3.733.7378.1278.122.102.10
Louisiana St.SEC3.733.7365.5265.521.161.16
Mississippi St.SEC3.713.7133.3333.33-1.24-1.24
MissouriSEC3.713.7170.9770.971.561.56
AlabamaSEC3.693.6966.6766.671.231.23
GeorgiaSEC3.643.6450.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC3.643.6460.0060.000.730.73
KentuckySEC3.593.5966.6766.671.201.20
VanderbiltSEC2.312.3150.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC2.292.2956.2556.250.290.29
TennesseeSEC2.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
South CarolinaSEC2.242.2445.1645.16-0.22-0.22
AuburnSEC2.242.2429.0329.03-0.94-0.94
MarquetteBE1.681.6876.6776.670.900.90
Middle TennesseeSB1.661.6687.5087.501.241.24
Savannah St.MEAC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
WisconsinB101.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
Alabama St.SWAC1.591.5930.0030.00-0.64-0.64
Central FloridaCUSA1.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Florida St.ACC1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
Air ForceMWC1.521.5255.5655.560.170.17
ArizonaP121.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
Kansas St.B121.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
YaleIvy1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1928.1228.12-0.08-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
South FloridaBE0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
LamarSlnd0.120.129.689.68-0.10-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Southern CaliforniaP120.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleBE0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
MercerASun0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Texas TechB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
OklahomaB120.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
TexasB120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1085.1985.190.070.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0914.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
LipscombASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ArmyPat0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
New Orleansind0.070.0718.1818.18-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
GramblingSWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
SyracuseBE0.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0442.3142.31-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
CharlotteA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00