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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:52.3
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:59
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-34.00.01%
26-47.50.02%
25-59.00.19%
24-611.60.79%
23-715.82.53%
22-822.16.22%
21-928.311.16%
20-1036.515.26%
19-1146.418.51%
18-1257.317.39%
17-1370.012.93%
16-1483.28.06%
15-1597.44.28%
14-16113.21.60%
13-17128.90.76%
12-18143.70.26%
11-19156.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14William & Mary (119.8)CAAH68-45W100%0.0
11-17Miami FL (12.9)ACCH67-69L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (220.9)SBH61-56W100%0.0
11-26Georgetown (37.0)BEN66-65L0%0.0
11-27UAB (209.5)CUSAN56-47W100%0.0
12-5Kansas (20.0)B12A0-033%-5.3
12-8Yale (61.9)IvyH0-075%8.2
12-12Texas Southern (240.5)SWACH0-096%21.5
12-14Jacksonville (324.8)ASunH0-099%27.4
12-20Wake Forest (95.9)ACCN0-063%3.9
12-30Florida St. (165.0)ACCA0-067%5.4
1-3Connecticut (31.7)AmerH0-063%3.8
1-7South Carolina (85.9)SECA0-049%-0.3
1-10Mississippi St. (192.4)SECH0-090%15.2
1-15Auburn (179.7)SECH0-090%15.4
1-17Georgia (74.6)SECA0-049%-0.3
1-20LSU (91.2)SECH0-076%8.4
1-24Mississippi (100.2)SECA0-057%2.1
1-27Alabama (69.6)SECA0-050%-0.0
1-31Arkansas (23.6)SECH0-052%0.6
2-3Vanderbilt (122.7)SECA0-060%3.0
2-7Kentucky (3.6)SECH0-026%-7.7
2-12Mississippi (100.2)SECH0-078%9.2
2-14Texas A&M (47.8)SECA0-039%-3.3
2-18Vanderbilt (122.7)SECH0-080%10.2
2-21LSU (91.2)SECA0-054%1.2
2-24Missouri (156.6)SECA0-069%6.1
2-28Tennessee (138.8)SECH0-084%11.8
3-3Texas A&M (47.8)SECH0-063%3.9
3-7Kentucky (3.6)SECA0-011%-14.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC30.3326.1247.8360.10-1.325.28
LSUSEC0.003.9860.0057.720.000.61
KentuckySEC0.003.92100.0090.010.003.14
VanderbiltSEC0.003.92100.0055.490.000.43
MississippiSEC0.003.9275.0054.510.000.35
Texas A&MSEC0.003.9275.0070.050.001.57
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.39100.0046.380.00-0.17
AlabamaSEC0.002.3680.0058.840.000.42
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3660.0057.100.000.34
AuburnSEC0.002.3660.0038.670.00-0.54
TennesseeSEC0.002.3666.6747.600.00-0.11
ArkansasSEC0.002.34100.0080.750.001.44
MissouriSEC0.002.3340.0036.60-0.00-0.63
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3150.0052.290.000.11
Florida St.ACC0.001.7840.0039.18-0.00-0.38
YaleIvy0.001.7580.0072.580.000.79
UABCUSA11.251.7525.0039.31-5.62-0.37
KansasB120.001.7575.0062.470.000.44
Miami FLACC10.001.75100.0078.1810.000.98
Wake ForestACC0.001.7566.6751.910.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.720.0042.46-0.00-0.26
ConnecticutAmer0.001.7075.0070.900.000.71
GeorgetownBE10.001.7075.0062.025.000.41
JacksonvilleASun0.001.700.0026.06-0.00-0.81
Louisiana MonroeSB11.001.7033.3345.29-3.67-0.16
William & MaryCAA10.001.67100.0057.1210.000.24
ClemsonACC0.000.2460.0050.620.000.00
BaylorB120.000.23100.0075.130.000.11
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2340.0053.54-0.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.2050.0046.120.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.20100.0065.930.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1980.0074.090.000.09
Georgia TechACC0.000.1975.0044.850.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer1.000.1775.0055.470.500.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.17100.0064.840.000.05
DaytonA100.000.1775.0071.300.000.07
LouisvilleACC0.000.16100.0078.390.000.09
TroySB0.000.150.0044.27-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.140.0043.66-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1440.0051.36-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.14100.0078.730.000.08
CharlotteCUSA1.670.1460.0067.380.330.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1475.0061.130.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1475.0065.610.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1466.6751.730.000.00
TexasB120.000.14100.0079.050.000.08
Texas TechB120.000.1475.0045.180.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0068.860.000.05
DukeACC0.000.14100.0083.320.000.09
Virginia TechACC0.000.1360.0035.980.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1250.0028.400.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0057.880.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.120.0039.39-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1260.0053.140.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0061.500.000.03
PennIvy0.000.110.0023.53-0.00-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.250.1133.3363.17-0.420.03
MercerSC0.000.1150.0054.380.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.11100.0060.400.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1140.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1180.0074.880.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0050.53-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1125.0047.85-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.11100.0058.380.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC1.000.1120.0043.38-0.60-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1166.6739.850.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1125.0043.27-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0065.020.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.1150.0065.590.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1140.0038.03-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1160.0057.910.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0073.330.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0960.0068.830.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0036.05-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0940.0039.26-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0052.42-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0071.410.000.04
DrexelCAA0.830.0920.0036.57-0.50-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0980.0067.100.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0040.20-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0063.120.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0975.0057.260.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3335.99-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0025.08-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0056.430.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.090.0029.60-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0942.8641.73-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0975.0046.860.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6750.170.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0980.0070.540.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0983.3368.400.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0820.0037.69-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0825.0053.73-0.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0880.0051.710.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0840.0045.07-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0860.0050.480.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0840.0058.41-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.400.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0055.660.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0015.46-0.00-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0866.6753.030.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0866.6758.390.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.080.0063.05-0.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.08100.0057.070.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3366.830.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.110.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0840.0033.19-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0880.0067.950.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.53-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.100.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC2.250.0633.3347.83-0.75-0.00
RiceCUSA1.250.0625.0028.63-0.62-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6725.500.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0039.990.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.34-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
WisconsinB102.000.06100.0087.592.000.04
HowardMEAC2.080.0625.0045.04-1.04-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.65-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0633.3337.71-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.230.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0072.400.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0045.460.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.450.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0056.380.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0060.510.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.830.0660.0066.680.170.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0039.180.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0620.0039.02-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.290.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.660.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0067.700.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0520.0034.53-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0566.6741.780.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.17-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0033.90-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0516.6732.00-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.47-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0064.570.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0525.0039.20-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.98-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0540.0046.34-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0580.0079.440.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.050.0020.51-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0040.56-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0525.0052.78-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0056.960.000.00
Western IllinoisSum1.250.0325.0026.73-0.62-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.480.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.20-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.52-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0325.0037.88-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC1.000.030.0052.73-1.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.000.0333.3352.29-0.330.00
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.390.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.46-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0056.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0340.0043.47-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0325.0033.76-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0360.0068.620.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3364.43-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.700.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.210.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3330.52-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0064.890.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0076.220.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.72-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.02-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.51-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0042.43-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.180.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.76-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.820.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.500.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.27-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.08-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0074.350.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0052.330.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.25-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00