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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:46.0
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:24
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1246.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH116-74W100%0.0
11-16North Florida (218.0)ASunH108-68W100%0.0
11-19New Hampshire (312.0)AEH70-63W100%0.0
11-23Stanford (86.0)P12N87-108W100%0.0
11-24Gonzaga (21.0)WCCN105-111W100%0.0
11-26Duke (7.0)ACCN84-87L0%0.0
12-4Florida St. (54.0)ACCH66-83L0%0.0
12-6Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH59-65L0%0.0
12-9Cincinnati (6.0)AmerN60-66W100%0.0
12-16Clemson (11.0)ACCN69-71L0%0.0
12-20James Madison (272.0)CAAH72-63W100%0.0
12-22Incarnate Word (347.0)SlndH75-60W100%0.0
12-30Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH81-74W100%0.0
1-2Texas A&M (29.0)SECA66-83W100%0.0
1-6Missouri (43.0)SECA75-77W100%0.0
1-10Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH71-54W100%0.0
1-13Mississippi (141.0)SECA78-72L0%0.0
1-17Arkansas (30.0)SECH88-73W100%0.0
1-20Kentucky (10.0)SECA64-66W100%0.0
1-24South Carolina (90.0)SECH72-77L0%0.0
1-27Baylor (68.0)B12H81-60W100%0.0
1-30Georgia (79.0)SECA72-60L0%0.0
2-3Alabama (42.0)SECH50-68L0%0.0
2-7LSU (95.0)SECH73-64W100%0.0
2-10South Carolina (90.0)SECA41-65W100%0.0
2-14Georgia (79.0)SECH69-72L0%0.0
2-17Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA71-68L0%0.0
2-21Tennessee (8.0)SECA62-57L0%0.0
2-24Auburn (15.0)SECH72-66W100%0.0
2-27Alabama (42.0)SECA52-73W100%0.0
3-3Kentucky (10.0)SECH80-67W100%0.0
3-9Arkansas (30.0)SECN72-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.0726.0758.1158.114.234.23
GeorgiaSEC3.773.7751.6151.610.120.12
KentuckySEC3.773.7775.0075.001.891.89
South CarolinaSEC3.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC3.733.7368.7568.751.401.40
AlabamaSEC3.733.7356.2556.250.470.47
VanderbiltSEC3.703.7036.6736.67-0.99-0.99
TennesseeSEC2.332.3375.0075.001.161.16
Mississippi St.SEC2.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
AuburnSEC2.282.2880.6580.651.401.40
LSUSEC2.252.2556.6756.670.300.30
MissouriSEC2.232.2363.3363.330.590.59
Texas A&MSEC2.232.2364.5264.520.650.65
MississippiSEC2.192.1935.4835.48-0.63-0.63
ClemsonACC1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
North FloridaASun1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Florida St.ACC1.641.6463.3363.330.440.44
DukeACC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
GonzagaWCC1.601.6090.9190.911.311.31
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5990.9190.911.301.30
Gardner WebbBSth1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Incarnate WordSlnd1.591.5913.0413.04-1.17-1.17
BaylorB121.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
James MadisonCAA1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.561.5683.8783.871.061.06
New HampshireAE1.561.5628.5728.57-0.67-0.67
StanfordP121.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
North CarolinaACC0.240.2471.4371.430.100.10
TexasB120.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
TempleAmer0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
West VirginiaB120.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1630.7730.77-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Kansas St.B120.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
KansasB120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
UCFAmer0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
OklahomaB120.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
MemphisAmer0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
UCLAP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
LipscombASun0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
USCP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
SamfordSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
TCUB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01