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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:72.0
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:99
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1772.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14William & Mary (93.0)CAAH68-45W100%0.0
11-17Miami FL (65.0)ACCH67-69L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH61-56W100%0.0
11-26Georgetown (25.0)BEN66-65L0%0.0
11-27UAB (130.0)CUSAN56-47W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina (11.0)ACCN64-75L0%0.0
12-5Kansas (2.0)B12A71-65L0%0.0
12-8Yale (64.0)IvyH85-47W100%0.0
12-12Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH75-50W100%0.0
12-14Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH79-34W100%0.0
12-20Wake Forest (150.0)ACCN63-50W100%0.0
12-30Florida St. (110.0)ACCA65-63L0%0.0
1-3Connecticut (77.0)AmerH59-63L0%0.0
1-7South Carolina (91.0)SECA68-72W100%0.0
1-10Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH72-47W100%0.0
1-15Auburn (129.0)SECH75-55W100%0.0
1-17Georgia (38.0)SECA73-61L0%0.0
1-20LSU (57.0)SECH61-79L0%0.0
1-24Mississippi (60.0)SECA72-71L0%0.0
1-27Alabama (85.0)SECA50-52W100%0.0
1-31Arkansas (19.0)SECH57-56W100%0.0
2-3Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA67-61L0%0.0
2-7Kentucky (1.0)SECH61-68L0%0.0
2-12Mississippi (60.0)SECH61-62L0%0.0
2-14Texas A&M (67.0)SECA63-62L0%0.0
2-18Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH50-47W100%0.0
2-21LSU (57.0)SECA70-63L0%0.0
2-24Missouri (218.0)SECA64-52L0%0.0
2-28Tennessee (96.0)SECH66-49W100%0.0
3-3Texas A&M (67.0)SECH66-62W100%0.0
3-7Kentucky (1.0)SECA67-50L0%0.0
3-12Alabama (85.0)SECN69-61W100%0.0
3-13Kentucky (1.0)SECN64-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.1626.1644.6044.60-2.82-2.82
KentuckySEC5.165.16100.00100.005.165.16
AlabamaSEC3.663.6658.6258.620.630.63
LSUSEC3.643.6466.6766.671.211.21
VanderbiltSEC3.623.6258.6258.620.620.62
Texas A&MSEC3.623.6265.5265.521.121.12
MississippiSEC3.603.6060.0060.000.720.72
AuburnSEC2.372.3742.4242.42-0.36-0.36
ArkansasSEC2.252.2578.7978.791.291.29
TennesseeSEC2.252.2551.6151.610.070.07
South CarolinaSEC2.242.2451.6151.610.070.07
GeorgiaSEC2.222.2264.5264.520.640.64
Mississippi St.SEC2.202.2040.0040.00-0.44-0.44
MissouriSEC2.172.1723.3323.33-1.16-1.16
North CarolinaACC1.701.7067.6567.650.600.60
Florida St.ACC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB121.631.6375.7675.760.840.84
UABCUSA1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Miami FLACC1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Wake ForestACC1.601.6041.9441.94-0.26-0.26
YaleIvy1.591.5968.9768.970.600.60
Texas SouthernSWAC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
JacksonvilleASun1.541.5425.0025.00-0.77-0.77
Louisiana MonroeSB1.541.5460.7160.710.330.33
GeorgetownBE1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
William & MaryCAA1.541.5462.0762.070.370.37
ClemsonACC0.250.2551.6151.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
BaylorB120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Georgia TechACC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1927.2727.27-0.09-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Kansas St.B120.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
UCLAP120.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
VirginiaACC0.160.1690.6290.620.130.13
DukeACC0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
North FloridaASun0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
TexasB120.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
MercerSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1072.4172.410.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
HartfordAE0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01