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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:7



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-810.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunN80-59W100%0.0
11-13Mercer (192.0)SCN76-54W100%0.0
11-17St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N73-66W100%0.0
11-21Belmont (61.0)OVCN78-61W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (43.0)BEN81-76W100%0.0
11-25Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN72-77L0%0.0
11-27Miami FL (41.0)ACCN65-56W100%0.0
12-1North Florida (217.0)ASunA60-91W100%0.0
12-6Duke (6.0)ACCN84-74L0%0.0
12-11Florida St. (14.0)ACCA83-78L0%0.0
12-17Charlotte (240.0)CUSAN87-46W100%0.0
12-21Little Rock (243.0)SBH94-71W100%0.0
12-29Arkansas (28.0)SECA72-81W100%0.0
1-3Mississippi (77.0)SECH70-63W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee (82.0)SECH83-70W100%0.0
1-10Alabama (78.0)SECA67-80W100%0.0
1-14Georgia (52.0)SECH80-76W100%0.0
1-18South Carolina (42.0)SECA57-53L0%0.0
1-21Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH66-68L0%0.0
1-25LSU (193.0)SECA71-106W100%0.0
1-28Oklahoma (168.0)B12A52-84W100%0.0
2-2Missouri (257.0)SECH93-54W100%0.0
2-4Kentucky (3.0)SECH88-66W100%0.0
2-7Georgia (52.0)SECA60-72W100%0.0
2-11Texas A&M (92.0)SECH71-62W100%0.0
2-14Auburn (113.0)SECA95-114W100%0.0
2-18Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA52-57W100%0.0
2-21South Carolina (42.0)SECH81-66W100%0.0
2-25Kentucky (3.0)SECA76-66L0%0.0
3-1Arkansas (28.0)SECH78-65W100%0.0
3-4Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA73-71L0%0.0
3-10Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA72-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.1126.1178.6778.6714.9714.97
VanderbiltSEC5.325.3251.6151.610.170.17
ArkansasSEC3.843.8478.1278.122.162.16
KentuckySEC3.823.8287.5087.502.872.87
GeorgiaSEC3.753.7560.0060.000.750.75
South CarolinaSEC3.703.7068.9768.971.401.40
TennesseeSEC2.282.2850.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC2.272.2753.3353.330.150.15
AlabamaSEC2.262.2659.3859.380.420.42
AuburnSEC2.242.2458.0658.060.360.36
MississippiSEC2.212.2162.5062.500.550.55
Mississippi St.SEC2.192.1951.6151.610.070.07
LSUSEC2.192.1933.3333.33-0.73-0.73
MissouriSEC2.192.1925.8125.81-1.06-1.06
North FloridaASun1.761.7637.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Miami FLACC1.681.6867.7467.740.600.60
DukeACC1.661.6676.4776.470.880.88
Florida St.ACC1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
BelmontOVC1.631.6380.7780.771.001.00
Seton HallBE1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
St. BonaventureA101.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
GonzagaWCC1.591.5996.8896.881.491.49
Little RockSB1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
MercerSC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
OklahomaB121.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
CharlotteCUSA1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
ClemsonACC0.290.2953.1253.120.020.02
LipscombASun0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
MarquetteBE0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
TexasB120.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.170.1787.5087.500.130.13
Iowa St.B120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
MinnesotaB100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00