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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:39.0
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:74
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-57.50.06%
25-612.60.57%
24-715.52.35%
23-819.17.04%
22-923.713.08%
21-1029.419.55%
20-1136.820.93%
19-1246.317.51%
18-1357.910.95%
17-1471.45.28%
16-1585.71.88%
15-16102.80.57%
14-17118.60.18%
13-18134.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14William & Mary (104.3)CAAH68-45W100%0.0
11-17Miami FL (23.0)ACCH67-69L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (208.5)SBH61-56W100%0.0
11-26Georgetown (47.6)BEN66-65L0%0.0
11-27UAB (224.5)CUSAN56-47W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina (11.6)ACCN64-75L0%0.0
12-5Kansas (7.5)B12A71-65L0%0.0
12-8Yale (60.2)IvyH85-47W100%0.0
12-12Texas Southern (226.8)SWACH75-50W100%0.0
12-14Jacksonville (336.7)ASunH79-34W100%0.0
12-20Wake Forest (156.3)ACCN0-084%11.5
12-30Florida St. (207.5)ACCA0-080%9.8
1-3Connecticut (71.3)AmerH0-084%11.9
1-7South Carolina (43.8)SECA0-038%-3.5
1-10Mississippi St. (214.6)SECH0-095%18.8
1-15Auburn (184.8)SECH0-094%18.4
1-17Georgia (54.3)SECA0-049%-0.4
1-20LSU (67.0)SECH0-082%10.7
1-24Mississippi (98.8)SECA0-066%4.8
1-27Alabama (83.6)SECA0-059%2.7
1-31Arkansas (42.2)SECH0-073%7.1
2-3Vanderbilt (89.5)SECA0-056%1.8
2-7Kentucky (1.6)SECH0-021%-9.4
2-12Mississippi (98.8)SECH0-088%13.6
2-14Texas A&M (58.1)SECA0-051%0.2
2-18Vanderbilt (89.5)SECH0-081%10.5
2-21LSU (67.0)SECA0-057%2.0
2-24Missouri (178.6)SECA0-082%10.8
2-28Tennessee (131.3)SECH0-090%15.0
3-3Texas A&M (58.1)SECH0-078%8.9
3-7Kentucky (1.6)SECA0-06%-18.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC27.8326.1050.0063.400.006.99
LSUSEC0.253.8480.0066.410.151.26
KentuckySEC0.533.81100.0095.370.533.46
VanderbiltSEC0.003.7975.0062.480.000.94
MississippiSEC0.003.7870.0054.630.000.35
Texas A&MSEC0.003.7877.7867.510.001.32
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.3150.0040.510.00-0.44
TennesseeSEC0.562.3050.0047.390.00-0.12
AlabamaSEC0.002.2866.6755.140.000.23
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2862.5059.790.000.45
AuburnSEC0.002.2844.4437.41-0.00-0.57
ArkansasSEC0.002.2577.7873.450.001.06
MissouriSEC0.002.2544.4432.06-0.00-0.81
South CarolinaSEC0.002.2262.5064.360.000.64
North CarolinaACC5.001.8066.6770.681.670.74
Florida St.ACC0.001.7450.0038.090.00-0.42
UABCUSA5.421.7233.3338.56-1.81-0.39
KansasB125.281.7287.5068.373.960.63
Miami FLACC5.001.7288.8974.703.890.85
Wake ForestACC0.001.7250.0038.720.00-0.39
YaleIvy5.001.6980.0069.583.000.66
Texas SouthernSWAC5.001.6712.5046.11-3.75-0.13
ConnecticutAmer0.231.6450.0058.950.000.29
JacksonvilleASun5.001.6411.1119.27-3.89-1.01
Louisiana MonroeSB5.251.6440.0047.02-1.05-0.10
GeorgetownBE5.281.6462.5058.021.320.26
William & MaryCAA5.001.6466.6758.931.670.29
ClemsonACC0.000.2666.6745.670.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.2477.7851.350.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2250.0044.900.00-0.02
BaylorB120.280.2190.0073.870.220.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.2181.8264.110.160.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.21100.0085.330.000.15
ProvidenceBE0.230.1972.7353.260.100.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1960.0037.220.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.18100.0087.140.000.14
South FloridaAmer0.500.1644.4444.78-0.06-0.02
DaytonA100.000.1677.7870.120.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1655.5638.130.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.1433.3339.46-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1444.4456.91-0.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.1425.0042.64-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.530.1480.0072.550.320.06
XavierBE0.000.1480.0070.960.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1362.5064.770.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.500.1360.0064.610.100.04
Iowa St.B120.000.1388.8963.800.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1342.8627.08-0.00-0.06
UCLAP120.500.1372.7357.280.230.02
TCUB120.000.13100.0066.180.000.04
TexasB120.000.1390.0081.860.000.08
Texas TechB120.000.1388.8955.910.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1390.0066.940.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1366.6742.100.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1366.6752.340.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0085.310.000.09
Appalachian St.SB0.250.1237.5034.19-0.06-0.04
TowsonCAA0.280.1166.6751.430.090.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1155.5654.950.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.420.110.0037.73-0.42-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1150.0052.710.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1137.5033.00-0.00-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.420.1157.1470.590.060.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1188.8981.310.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.500.1118.1844.62-0.32-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.1172.7351.560.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1137.5042.45-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1120.0041.46-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.660.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.1150.0056.340.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1187.5054.790.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1177.7869.190.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0074.000.000.05
SMUAmer0.280.1170.0071.330.110.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1044.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.1090.9171.890.000.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0033.84-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1066.6757.800.000.02
HofstraCAA0.250.0977.7878.540.140.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.50-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0942.8652.71-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.250.0925.0037.13-0.13-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0966.6757.860.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.250.090.0036.67-0.25-0.02
SamfordSC0.250.0833.3331.58-0.08-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0860.0064.620.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.940.0830.0039.44-0.38-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.420.0870.0058.600.170.01
StetsonASun0.000.0810.0027.42-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.240.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.260.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0827.2737.85-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.230.0850.0051.050.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.250.0837.5050.40-0.060.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0814.2945.19-0.18-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.820.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0844.4445.64-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.730.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.870.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0016.85-0.00-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0056.800.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0837.5038.60-0.06-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0863.6455.600.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.01-0.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7867.290.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0855.5649.500.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0825.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0833.3362.92-0.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0842.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8655.64-0.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.630.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.0818.1828.02-0.16-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.39-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.790.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.360.0616.6726.28-0.24-0.03
HowardMEAC0.610.0630.0043.91-0.24-0.01
RichmondA100.360.0655.5657.090.040.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.110.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5065.040.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
BryantNEC0.230.0528.5747.24-0.10-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0525.0038.92-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.530.0590.9188.390.430.04
AkronMAC0.250.0560.0056.560.050.01
IndianaB100.280.0580.0057.630.170.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.0571.4361.370.100.01
LafayettePat0.230.0575.0069.820.110.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0566.6758.240.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0544.4451.04-0.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.960.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0572.7367.750.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0555.5659.990.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0577.7855.460.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0560.0035.070.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0550.0049.620.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0545.4544.07-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.280.0590.0090.940.220.04
IllinoisB100.250.0572.7365.930.110.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3334.28-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.730.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.79-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.940.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0520.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0522.2230.99-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.19-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0069.120.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0540.0046.73-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.008.88-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.53-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6772.340.000.02
Michigan St.B100.280.0572.7373.150.130.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0522.2228.69-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0540.0050.78-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.17-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.360.0362.5056.410.090.00
Western IllinoisSum0.360.0337.5031.95-0.09-0.01
WoffordSC0.360.0377.7876.240.200.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0320.0034.08-0.15-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.250.0357.1456.900.040.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.0318.1821.30-0.14-0.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.0344.4449.65-0.03-0.00
RadfordBSth0.280.0350.0055.810.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.360.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.0360.0049.500.05-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0322.2240.44-0.15-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.0325.0028.68-0.14-0.01
VermontAE0.230.0344.4457.85-0.030.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.85-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4348.860.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.250.0366.6764.310.080.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0318.1846.16-0.16-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.59-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2241.92-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0355.5650.970.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.320.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.29-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.250.0387.5077.020.190.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0366.6777.030.090.01
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0078.480.130.01
IowaB100.250.0372.7362.590.110.01
LamarSlnd0.280.0314.2934.12-0.20-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.50-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.0344.4470.08-0.030.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.280.0362.5073.190.070.01
RiderMAAC0.280.0350.0052.800.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5064.43-0.070.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.0322.2237.75-0.14-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
UtahP120.280.0377.7879.480.150.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.31-0.00-0.01