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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Florida

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:14.9
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:62
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:22.71%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-45.11.34%
26-57.79.36%
25-610.425.80%
24-714.232.57%
23-819.621.95%
22-926.67.70%
21-1035.31.17%
20-1147.20.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jackson St. (308.4)SWACH99-59W100%0.0
11-15Ohio St. (3.4)B10A81-74L0%0.0
11-17North Florida (183.0)ASunH91-55W100%0.0
11-21Wright St. (216.3)HorzN78-65W100%0.0
11-25Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH107-62W100%0.0
11-28Stetson (255.4)ASunN96-70W100%0.0
12-2Syracuse (2.1)BEA72-68L0%0.0
12-7Arizona (75.8)P12H78-72W100%0.0
12-9Rider (213.8)MAACN90-69W100%0.0
12-17Texas A&M (154.9)B12N84-64W100%0.0
12-19Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH82-54W100%0.0
12-22Florida St. (21.9)ACCH82-64W100%0.0
12-29Rutgers (141.7)BEA85-83L0%0.0
12-31Yale (117.5)IvyH90-70W100%0.0
1-3UAB (140.0)CUSAH79-61W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee (136.4)SECA67-56L0%0.0
1-10Georgia (132.0)SECH70-48W100%0.0
1-14South Carolina (172.1)SECA65-79W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH76-64W100%0.0
1-26Mississippi (70.0)SECA60-64W100%0.0
1-28Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH69-57W100%0.0
2-2South Carolina (172.1)SECH74-66W100%0.0
2-4Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH73-65W100%0.0
2-7Kentucky (4.3)SECA0-022%-8.5
2-11Tennessee (136.4)SECH0-090%14.2
2-14Alabama (30.4)SECA0-048%-0.4
2-18Arkansas (65.9)SECA0-069%5.3
2-21Auburn (147.6)SECH0-096%19.0
2-25Georgia (132.0)SECA0-083%10.6
2-28Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA0-055%1.3
3-4Kentucky (4.3)SECH0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FloridaSEC26.2226.1085.8880.7918.8116.07
South CarolinaSEC4.543.8645.0042.39-0.45-0.59
KentuckySEC0.403.8195.8394.310.363.38
VanderbiltSEC2.423.8172.7368.851.101.44
TennesseeSEC2.373.8142.8643.93-0.34-0.46
GeorgiaSEC2.373.8147.6243.55-0.11-0.49
Mississippi St.SEC2.472.2081.8274.751.571.09
AlabamaSEC0.432.2068.1869.700.160.87
AuburnSEC0.492.2056.5250.350.060.02
ArkansasSEC0.292.1769.5766.280.110.71
MississippiSEC2.472.1766.6758.660.820.38
Louisiana St.SEC2.322.1761.9059.250.550.40
North FloridaASun2.461.8647.8348.29-0.11-0.06
JacksonvilleASun2.371.8118.1822.78-1.51-0.98
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.371.7852.3860.160.110.36
StetsonASun2.361.7533.3332.47-0.79-0.61
Ohio St.B102.421.7586.3684.971.761.22
Jackson St.SWAC2.361.7520.0026.43-1.42-0.82
Florida St.ACC2.271.7076.1974.181.190.82
Wright St.Horz2.321.6943.4842.01-0.30-0.27
RutgersBE2.221.6747.8345.04-0.10-0.17
UABCUSA2.221.6442.8641.24-0.32-0.29
ArizonaP122.221.6469.5770.840.870.68
SyracuseBE2.171.6495.6591.741.981.37
Texas A&MB122.221.6455.0047.790.22-0.07
RiderMAAC2.171.6139.1339.80-0.47-0.33
YaleIvy2.171.6176.4765.721.150.51
South Carolina UpstateASun0.290.2754.5556.090.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.2252.3852.860.010.01
MercerASun0.240.2270.8371.640.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.198.7011.67-0.16-0.15
MemphisCUSA0.200.1969.5771.510.080.08
GramblingSWAC0.200.1915.0015.73-0.14-0.13
MarquetteBE0.240.1979.1775.980.140.10
ConnecticutBE0.140.1868.1863.990.050.05
LouisvilleBE0.090.1878.2672.660.050.08
BelmontASun0.230.1769.5773.280.090.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1750.0048.900.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.230.1743.4843.82-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1617.6527.10-0.10-0.08
North CarolinaACC0.200.1686.9683.160.150.11
Southern CaliforniaP120.190.1625.0025.13-0.10-0.08
Notre DameBE0.190.1665.2262.650.060.04
St. John'sBE0.140.1643.4840.28-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.200.1447.3752.87-0.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.1416.6723.02-0.14-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.150.1445.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1417.3924.41-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.110.1465.2263.740.030.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1431.8242.13-0.04-0.02
WoffordSC0.200.1459.0957.930.040.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.138.708.99-0.16-0.11
Georgia TechACC0.150.1339.1342.12-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.100.1378.2678.390.060.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1365.0060.020.040.03
ClemsonACC0.190.1350.0048.360.00-0.00
DukeACC0.150.1386.3683.090.110.09
IndianaB100.140.1375.0075.780.070.07
OaklandSum0.090.1348.0050.21-0.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.190.1369.5765.470.070.04
PittsburghBE0.190.1360.8758.160.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.230.1356.5250.270.030.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.150.1171.4366.600.060.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1138.1042.78-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1152.3857.860.010.02
BaylorB120.200.1190.9183.850.170.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1130.0037.30-0.06-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1172.7368.280.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1135.0040.78-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1175.0074.610.070.05
South AlabamaSB0.200.1152.3852.870.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.1183.3384.760.100.07
DetroitHorz0.090.1147.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.140.1156.5255.200.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.1127.2735.02-0.02-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.1181.8280.430.060.06
DePaulBE0.190.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.1161.9055.140.030.01
ColoradoP120.090.1166.6762.650.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1165.2263.610.060.03
XavierA100.100.1165.2263.740.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.140.1030.0034.15-0.06-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1070.8364.420.040.03
Penn St.B100.100.1041.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.1077.2773.450.020.05
MaristMAAC0.090.1034.7833.43-0.03-0.03
MonmouthNEC0.140.1028.0028.91-0.06-0.04
West VirginiaBE0.180.1065.2265.170.060.03
HarvardIvy0.110.0990.4887.910.090.07
DartmouthIvy0.110.0914.2917.17-0.08-0.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.0954.5556.840.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0855.0060.330.010.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0819.0522.37-0.06-0.05
Iowa St.B120.100.0873.9168.430.050.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.4540.70-0.00-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0838.1037.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.0885.7182.180.070.05
MarshallCUSA0.140.0859.0959.720.030.02
OklahomaB120.050.0859.0954.700.010.01
FurmanSC0.100.0847.6248.83-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0834.7834.61-0.03-0.03
HoustonCUSA0.100.0847.6244.63-0.00-0.01
North TexasSB0.150.0850.0050.010.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0834.7833.46-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0856.5253.100.020.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0881.8276.800.060.04
SamfordSC0.050.0833.3335.26-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0827.7829.58-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0880.9577.380.030.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0876.1972.910.030.04
South FloridaBE0.050.0854.5548.600.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.100.0875.0073.970.050.04
BucknellPat0.090.0873.9175.000.040.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0861.9067.230.010.03
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0868.0069.070.050.03
MichiganB100.050.0872.7366.810.020.03
OregonP120.090.0869.5764.530.040.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0863.6463.160.030.02
BrownIvy0.120.0627.2723.80-0.05-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0655.0054.800.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0636.8441.45-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.110.068.3310.86-0.09-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.0644.0045.89-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriB120.050.0691.3087.180.040.04
RiceCUSA0.100.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0660.8761.370.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0660.8759.050.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0540.0040.18-0.02-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0580.0078.060.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0582.6180.420.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0534.7832.08-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.054.359.66-0.09-0.04
TroySB0.100.0528.5730.17-0.04-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0561.9058.590.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0533.3335.97-0.02-0.02
ButlerHorz0.090.0550.0050.800.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0558.3359.980.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0560.8760.960.010.01
ElonSC0.100.0550.0047.590.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0530.0030.06-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0519.0521.29-0.06-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0559.0950.820.010.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0568.1867.640.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.0023.75-0.02-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0540.9143.66-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0510.0014.93-0.08-0.04
The CitadelSC0.050.059.5211.44-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0534.7837.24-0.03-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0535.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0556.5257.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0550.0051.530.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0547.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0535.2939.85-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0573.9175.490.020.03
CharlotteA100.050.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0565.2260.580.000.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.0060.420.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0530.4331.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0543.4844.25-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0517.3919.81-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0576.1976.760.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0550.0051.730.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0554.5554.300.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0572.7364.430.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0579.1780.100.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0530.0027.84-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0513.6416.35-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0552.3846.680.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0537.5041.54-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.000.0560.0058.290.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0521.7421.70-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.058.7013.10-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0545.4545.55-0.01-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.0521.7424.58-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.090.0569.5768.290.040.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0566.6768.050.030.02
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
UtahP120.050.0518.1815.01-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0545.4546.08-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0569.5766.540.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.060.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0345.4545.70-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0317.3920.97-0.04-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.060.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.060.0356.5257.150.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0320.8320.60-0.04-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0360.0062.490.010.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.21-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0390.9187.740.040.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.44-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0372.2271.970.020.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0340.0041.30-0.00-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.000.0357.1453.120.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0341.1842.61-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.000.0334.7835.20-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.540.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0318.1822.22-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0342.8643.45-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0369.5761.310.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.030.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.690.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00