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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:212.0
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:272
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:196



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15212.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Seton Hall (97.0)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH74-66W100%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA75-62L0%0.0
11-27Rice (247.0)CUSAN77-71W100%0.0
11-28UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWN65-60L0%0.0
11-29Pacific (241.0)WCCN48-55L0%0.0
12-6VMI (286.0)SCH90-81W100%0.0
12-16Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH51-67L0%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH67-46W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee (96.0)SECA64-54L0%0.0
12-27Georgia (38.0)SECA86-77L0%0.0
12-30Texas A&M (67.0)SECA65-50L0%0.0
1-3UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA55-76W100%0.0
1-5VMI (286.0)SCA75-85W100%0.0
1-8East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA71-70L0%0.0
1-10The Citadel (327.0)SCH74-51W100%0.0
1-15Furman (293.0)SCH67-64W100%0.0
1-17Samford (305.0)SCH80-56W100%0.0
1-22Western Carolina (220.0)SCA60-52L0%0.0
1-29Chattanooga (112.0)SCH75-72W100%0.0
1-31Wofford (47.0)SCA49-46L0%0.0
2-5The Citadel (327.0)SCA53-76W100%0.0
2-7Furman (293.0)SCA68-74W100%0.0
2-12Western Carolina (220.0)SCH54-58L0%0.0
2-14UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH55-50W100%0.0
2-19Chattanooga (112.0)SCA74-61L0%0.0
2-21Samford (305.0)SCA61-62W100%0.0
2-26Wofford (47.0)SCH72-76L0%0.0
2-28East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH69-64W100%0.0
3-7VMI (286.0)SCN89-61W100%0.0
3-8Furman (293.0)SCN49-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC26.5526.5553.3353.331.771.77
FurmanSC5.945.9428.5728.57-2.54-2.54
VMISC5.825.8236.0036.00-1.63-1.63
WoffordSC4.404.4080.0080.002.642.64
The CitadelSC4.394.3932.0032.00-1.58-1.58
ChattanoogaSC4.344.3467.8667.861.551.55
Western CarolinaSC4.324.3239.2939.29-0.93-0.93
UNC GreensboroSC4.314.3128.5728.57-1.85-1.85
SamfordSC4.294.2941.3841.38-0.74-0.74
East Tennessee St.SC4.284.2850.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC1.741.7464.5264.520.510.51
TennesseeSEC1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
Colorado St.MWC1.671.6780.6580.651.021.02
Texas A&MSEC1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
PacificWCC1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
Seton HallBE1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
DartmouthIvy1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1627.2727.27-0.07-0.07
ButlerBE0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
MinnesotaB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
LSUSEC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
LipscombASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
ArmyPat0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00