Mercer

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	98.0
Current RPI:	98
Expected SOS:	229
Current SOS:	233
Current Record:	17-7
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	10-2
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	37.29%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	109
Expected OOC SOS:	212

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	78.4	14.39%
22-8	92.0	37.99%
21-9	104.4	32.88%
20-10	116.6	12.39%
19-11	129.6	2.15%
18-12	143.3	0.19%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	81-63	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Furman (230.9)	SC	A	46-66	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	60-38	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	74-55	W	100%	0.0
11-23	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	H	61-74	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	72-79	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	A	82-78	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Samford (254.7)	SC	A	78-83	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	67-56	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Seton Hall (53.1)	BE	A	80-77	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	A	72-58	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	A	59-65	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	68-62	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	56-65	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	76-54	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	75-59	W	100%	0.0
1-7	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	A	76-61	L	0%	0.0
1-9	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	H	81-51	W	100%	0.0
1-21	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	69-58	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	75-65	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	A	64-75	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	66-75	W	100%	0.0
2-4	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	61-47	W	100%	0.0
2-6	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	H	0-0		80%	9.0
2-10	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	A	0-0		92%	15.6
2-18	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	0-0		80%	9.4
2-20	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	0-0		67%	4.7
2-23	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	0-0		87%	12.2
2-25	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	0-0		44%	-1.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mercer	ASun	26.41	26.38	76.85	76.19	14.18	13.82
Jacksonville	ASun	2.88	4.32	18.18	22.90	-1.83	-2.34
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.93	4.31	9.09	12.23	-2.40	-3.26
Belmont	ASun	2.73	4.26	68.18	72.92	0.99	1.95
North Florida	ASun	2.78	4.26	47.83	48.82	-0.12	-0.10
Lipscomb	ASun	2.73	4.25	45.45	46.57	-0.25	-0.29
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.68	4.25	60.00	60.24	0.94	0.87
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.73	4.25	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.19
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.72	4.25	55.00	52.66	0.47	0.23
Stetson	ASun	4.72	4.25	35.00	33.72	-1.42	-1.38
Samford	SC	2.23	1.85	35.00	36.61	-0.67	-0.49
Chattanooga	SC	2.18	1.81	28.57	36.31	-0.93	-0.50
Furman	SC	2.18	1.81	50.00	50.70	0.00	0.03
Missouri	B12	2.22	1.78	90.91	86.75	1.82	1.31
Georgia	SEC	2.22	1.75	42.86	39.17	-0.32	-0.38
Niagara	MAAC	2.23	1.75	39.13	42.92	-0.48	-0.25
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.22	1.75	27.78	30.93	-0.99	-0.67
South Dakota St.	Sum	2.23	1.75	72.73	74.61	1.01	0.86
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.13	1.69	40.91	43.57	-0.39	-0.22
Navy	Pat	2.13	1.69	10.00	13.69	-1.70	-1.23
Seton Hall	BE	2.08	1.67	63.64	62.48	0.57	0.42
Tulsa	CUSA	2.08	1.67	59.09	57.64	0.38	0.25
Appalachian St.	SC	0.30	0.30	35.00	39.29	-0.09	-0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.28	0.23	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.23	0.23	82.61	77.63	0.15	0.13
Wofford	SC	0.24	0.21	59.09	57.93	0.04	0.03
Elon	SC	0.20	0.18	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.24	0.18	76.19	76.76	0.13	0.10
Georgia Southern	SC	0.24	0.18	40.00	41.30	-0.05	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.18	34.78	37.24	-0.06	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.14	0.17	28.57	30.17	-0.06	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.17	38.10	42.78	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.17	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.17	68.18	69.10	0.07	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.17	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.18	0.17	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.15	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.24	0.15	30.00	27.84	-0.09	-0.07
Toledo	MAC	0.19	0.15	38.10	40.81	-0.05	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.15	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.19	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.14	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.14	72.73	71.71	0.08	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.14	19.05	22.37	-0.11	-0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.18	0.14	65.00	60.02	0.06	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.14	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.14	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.20	0.12	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.12	9.52	11.44	-0.12	-0.09
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.15	0.12	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.06
Texas St.	Slnd	0.15	0.12	22.22	27.62	-0.08	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.19	0.12	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.12	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.12	18.18	21.13	-0.06	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.10
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.19	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.19	0.11	34.78	38.42	-0.06	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.19	0.11	19.05	24.61	-0.12	-0.06
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.11	61.90	58.59	0.03	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.19	0.11	65.22	62.65	0.06	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.18	0.11	77.27	73.45	0.10	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.11	86.96	85.46	0.10	0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.11	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.11	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.09
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.11	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.11	73.91	68.43	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.11	83.33	84.76	0.06	0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.11	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.09	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.14	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.14	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.09	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.15	0.08	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.08	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.08	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.08	19.05	25.52	-0.05	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.08	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.08	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.08	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.08	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.08	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.04
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.06	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.06	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.09	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.04	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.03	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.04	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.04	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.05	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.05	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.05	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.05	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.05	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.05	68.00	69.07	0.03	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.04	0.05	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.05	37.50	38.52	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.00	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.00	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.04	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.04	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.02	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.00	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.00	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02