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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:184.8
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:40
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-859.00.01%
20-980.50.18%
19-1095.00.82%
18-11109.82.46%
17-12125.25.87%
16-13142.911.02%
15-14161.616.70%
14-15180.919.32%
13-16201.118.91%
12-17220.412.47%
11-18239.77.22%
10-19259.43.51%
9-20277.31.12%
8-21291.30.30%
7-22305.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (9.5)SECA76-54L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH80-67W100%0.0
11-22Radford (263.5)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
11-25East Carolina (174.1)AmerN66-70W100%0.0
11-26Akron (81.5)MACN65-63L0%0.0
11-29Davidson (68.7)A10H57-78L0%0.0
12-3George Mason (189.3)A10A79-68L0%0.0
12-10Clemson (70.5)ACCA0-010%-15.6
12-18Auburn (88.3)SECA0-016%-11.9
12-22La Salle (94.8)A10H0-040%-3.1
12-28Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunA0-068%5.5
12-31Wofford (243.9)SCA0-046%-1.1
1-2Furman (147.4)SCA0-029%-6.5
1-5VMI (322.5)SCH0-087%13.7
1-7East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCH0-027%-7.5
1-11Samford (166.0)SCA0-037%-4.0
1-14Chattanooga (86.7)SCH0-035%-4.6
1-19UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCA0-037%-4.0
1-21Western Carolina (271.1)SCA0-073%7.5
1-28The Citadel (299.9)SCH0-086%13.2
1-30Western Carolina (271.1)SCH0-087%13.8
2-2Furman (147.4)SCH0-049%-0.3
2-4Wofford (243.9)SCH0-067%5.1
2-9VMI (322.5)SCA0-073%7.5
2-11East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCA0-013%-13.7
2-18The Citadel (299.9)SCA0-072%6.9
2-22UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCH0-057%2.2
2-25Chattanooga (86.7)SCA0-018%-10.9
2-27Samford (166.0)SCH0-057%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC28.3326.4237.9348.28-6.84-0.91
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4571.4373.020.002.05
VMISC0.514.450.0016.55-0.51-2.98
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4383.3379.810.002.64
FurmanSC0.004.4333.3355.90-0.000.52
SamfordSC0.004.4362.5056.790.000.60
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4328.5723.38-0.00-2.36
The CitadelSC0.004.4250.0031.080.00-1.67
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4271.4356.520.000.58
WoffordSC0.004.420.0034.13-0.00-1.40
RadfordBSth8.161.8533.3335.55-2.72-0.53
DavidsonA107.141.8166.6761.852.380.43
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7925.0030.15-0.00-0.71
AkronMAC8.161.7866.6767.872.720.64
Georgia SouthernSB8.161.7850.0045.160.00-0.17
George MasonA107.141.7857.1445.061.02-0.18
La SalleA100.001.7866.6755.370.000.19
ClemsonACC0.511.7571.4353.630.220.13
AuburnSEC0.001.7585.7156.570.000.23
FloridaSEC7.141.7585.7174.425.100.86
East CarolinaAmer7.141.7287.5051.575.360.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.3433.3327.06-0.00-0.15
CampbellBSth0.000.2542.8639.20-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2457.1467.260.000.08
DaytonA100.000.2171.4373.490.000.10
High PointBSth0.000.2142.8646.48-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.2150.0048.210.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.2125.0038.83-0.00-0.05
FordhamA100.000.2150.0041.310.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.2128.5723.78-0.00-0.11
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2057.1452.030.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1833.3352.11-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1885.7162.990.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1833.3348.07-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.910.1828.5728.24-0.39-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.960.1857.1471.940.140.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.510.1866.6761.550.170.04
Miami FLACC0.450.1875.0066.100.220.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1871.4358.600.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.1840.0041.12-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1585.7183.660.000.10
USC UpstateASun0.000.1544.4441.30-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.510.1587.5081.960.380.10
MarshallCUSA0.000.1571.4354.860.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1550.0071.070.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.510.1575.0054.490.260.01
Kent St.MAC0.450.1557.1454.360.060.01
Appalachian St.SB0.510.1516.6729.80-0.34-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.910.150.0022.58-0.91-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.000.1562.5069.130.000.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1583.3377.100.000.08
George WashingtonA100.000.1555.5641.690.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.1575.0073.060.000.07
LSUSEC0.000.1571.4349.170.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1550.0046.240.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1487.5065.250.000.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1320.0037.65-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0046.410.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1216.6729.81-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1225.0037.38-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.400.120.0020.75-0.40-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.000.1257.1436.010.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1271.4357.970.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.1287.5078.510.000.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.450.1212.5034.79-0.33-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.450.1271.4370.390.190.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1275.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.510.1157.1442.530.07-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0078.850.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1157.1451.790.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0054.540.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.890.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.280.000.02
Arizona St.P120.510.0962.5040.460.13-0.02
BradleyMVC0.450.0942.8627.96-0.06-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0021.80-0.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0914.2932.19-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.460.000.03
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.680.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.090.0018.64-0.51-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.070.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0944.4442.03-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.12-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0987.5082.360.000.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0060.620.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.400.0957.1471.520.060.04
UABCUSA0.000.0950.0059.920.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0957.1433.230.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.910.0971.4351.460.390.00
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.920.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0871.4348.350.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0885.7178.280.320.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0885.7166.190.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.800.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0048.500.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5029.71-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.0675.0051.040.260.00
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.57-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.910.0657.1448.500.13-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.450.06100.0091.920.450.05
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0657.1429.790.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.180.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
AmericanPat0.510.0314.2931.35-0.36-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
CreightonBE0.510.03100.0076.630.510.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.840.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.0342.8638.17-0.07-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.450.0312.5030.68-0.33-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0311.1148.19-0.35-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.450.0333.3352.84-0.150.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
TowsonCAA0.450.0342.8653.19-0.060.00
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
BelmontOVC0.450.0350.0064.350.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.400.0325.0031.41-0.20-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.400.0314.2942.67-0.28-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
Seton HallBE0.450.0371.4354.560.190.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01