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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:192.0
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:136
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17192.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (10.0)SECN76-54L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH80-67W100%0.0
11-22Radford (227.0)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
11-25East Carolina (213.0)AmerN66-70W100%0.0
11-26Akron (58.0)MACN65-63L0%0.0
11-29Davidson (93.0)A10H57-78L0%0.0
12-3George Mason (103.0)A10A79-68L0%0.0
12-10Clemson (69.0)ACCA90-47L0%0.0
12-18Auburn (113.0)SECA76-74L0%0.0
12-22La Salle (133.0)A10H96-98L0%0.0
12-28Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA76-80W100%0.0
12-31Wofford (190.0)SCA88-71L0%0.0
1-2Furman (96.0)SCA71-69L0%0.0
1-5VMI (329.0)SCH68-50W100%0.0
1-7East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH58-67L0%0.0
1-11Samford (170.0)SCA65-68W100%0.0
1-14Chattanooga (139.0)SCH68-70L0%0.0
1-19UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA68-66L0%0.0
1-21Western Carolina (271.0)SCA50-70W100%0.0
1-28The Citadel (282.0)SCH82-66W100%0.0
1-30Western Carolina (271.0)SCH62-47W100%0.0
2-2Furman (96.0)SCH68-70L0%0.0
2-4Wofford (190.0)SCH62-65L0%0.0
2-9VMI (329.0)SCA51-81W100%0.0
2-11East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA88-71L0%0.0
2-18The Citadel (282.0)SCA78-89W100%0.0
2-22UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-25Chattanooga (139.0)SCA54-64W100%0.0
2-27Samford (170.0)SCH88-79W100%0.0
3-4East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCN73-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC26.4226.4243.3343.33-3.52-3.52
East Tennessee St.SC6.006.0075.8675.863.103.10
SamfordSC4.474.4756.6756.670.600.60
UNC GreensboroSC4.464.4668.9768.971.691.69
WoffordSC4.384.3839.2939.29-0.94-0.94
The CitadelSC4.384.3832.1432.14-1.56-1.56
ChattanoogaSC4.354.3559.2659.260.810.81
VMISC4.344.3415.3815.38-3.00-3.00
Western CarolinaSC4.324.3225.0025.00-2.16-2.16
FurmanSC4.324.3260.7160.710.930.93
RadfordBSth1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
DavidsonA101.771.7751.6151.610.060.06
La SalleA101.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
AkronMAC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
George MasonA101.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Georgia SouthernSB1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
AuburnSEC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
ClemsonACC1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
FloridaSEC1.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
East CarolinaAmer1.671.6746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
PresbyterianBSth0.310.3110.7110.71-0.24-0.24
CampbellBSth0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.240.2476.6776.670.130.13
FordhamA100.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2270.0070.000.090.09
Coastal CarolinaSB0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
LibertyBSth0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
RichmondA100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
High PointBSth0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Saint LouisA100.190.1936.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
MassachusettsA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
VCUA100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
Kent St.MAC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
WinthropBSth0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
TempleAmer0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01