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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Mercer

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:81.0
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:219
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-881.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Texas (36.0)B12A76-73L0%0.0
11-16Seton Hall (128.0)BEH77-74W100%0.0
11-18Evansville (214.0)MVCA89-76L0%0.0
11-23Yale (147.0)IvyH81-54W100%0.0
11-26Ohio (87.0)MACA76-67L0%0.0
11-29Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA108-117W100%0.0
12-2Oklahoma (26.0)B12A96-82L0%0.0
12-7Denver (139.0)SumH64-63W100%0.0
12-16Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH70-44W100%0.0
12-22Mississippi (94.0)SECA76-79W100%0.0
12-30Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA49-86W100%0.0
1-1North Florida (189.0)ASunA89-83L0%0.0
1-4USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH62-60W100%0.0
1-6East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH73-63W100%0.0
1-10Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH83-46W100%0.0
1-16Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA58-74W100%0.0
1-18Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA66-87W100%0.0
1-23Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH68-55W100%0.0
1-25Stetson (333.0)ASunH87-49W100%0.0
1-31East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA77-90W100%0.0
2-2USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA80-61L0%0.0
2-7Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA68-75W100%0.0
2-14Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH79-48W100%0.0
2-16Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH89-67W100%0.0
2-21Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA75-61L0%0.0
2-23Stetson (333.0)ASunA52-73W100%0.0
2-27North Florida (189.0)ASunH76-79L0%0.0
3-1Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH69-55W100%0.0
3-4Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH85-64W100%0.0
3-6USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH78-75W100%0.0
3-9Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA60-68W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerASun26.6226.6278.9578.9515.4115.41
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.915.9165.5265.521.831.83
USC UpstateASun5.865.8657.1457.140.840.84
JacksonvilleASun5.795.7940.0040.00-1.16-1.16
East Tennessee St.ASun4.414.4156.6756.670.590.59
StetsonASun4.324.3224.1424.14-2.23-2.23
North FloridaASun4.324.3242.8642.86-0.62-0.62
LipscombASun4.294.2951.8551.850.160.16
Northern KentuckyASun4.244.2432.1432.14-1.51-1.51
Kennesaw St.ASun4.244.2414.8114.81-2.98-2.98
ValparaisoHorz1.711.7151.7251.720.060.06
OklahomaB121.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
OhioMAC1.671.6765.6265.620.520.52
EvansvilleMVC1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
TexasB121.661.6668.7568.750.620.62
DenverSum1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Seton HallBE1.641.6451.5251.520.050.05
MississippiSEC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
YaleIvy1.611.6153.8553.850.120.12
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.160.1694.1294.120.150.15
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
IndianaB100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1381.8281.820.090.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
WinthropBSth0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1341.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0793.1093.100.060.06
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00