live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:243.7
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:231
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-999.00.01%
19-10125.20.22%
18-11141.40.49%
17-12162.41.87%
16-13180.75.39%
15-14200.010.83%
14-15220.016.69%
13-16240.820.11%
12-17260.818.58%
11-18279.413.65%
10-19294.87.74%
9-20307.83.12%
8-21317.01.01%
7-22327.20.24%
6-23334.30.03%
5-24337.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Seton Hall (38.0)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunH74-66W100%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (33.0)MWCA75-62L0%0.0
11-27Rice (285.0)CUSAN77-71W100%0.0
11-28UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWN65-60L0%0.0
11-29Pacific (206.0)WCCN48-55L0%0.0
12-6VMI (271.8)SCH90-81W100%0.0
12-16Dartmouth (193.6)IvyH51-67L0%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACH67-46W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee (131.8)SECA0-017%-11.1
12-27Georgia (54.3)SECA0-06%-17.8
12-30Texas A&M (71.4)SECA0-08%-16.4
1-3UNC Greensboro (287.8)SCA0-044%-1.9
1-5VMI (271.8)SCA0-042%-2.4
1-8East Tennessee St. (130.5)SCA0-021%-9.3
1-10The Citadel (315.1)SCH0-074%7.7
1-15Furman (279.1)SCH0-073%7.2
1-17Samford (329.4)SCH0-083%11.3
1-22Western Carolina (252.3)SCA0-035%-4.5
1-29Chattanooga (221.6)SCH0-062%3.6
1-31Wofford (65.9)SCA0-011%-14.5
2-5The Citadel (315.1)SCA0-048%-0.7
2-7Furman (279.1)SCA0-046%-1.1
2-12Western Carolina (252.3)SCH0-063%3.9
2-14UNC Greensboro (287.8)SCH0-071%6.5
2-19Chattanooga (221.6)SCA0-034%-4.7
2-21Samford (329.4)SCA0-060%2.9
2-26Wofford (65.9)SCH0-030%-6.1
2-28East Tennessee St. (130.5)SCH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC27.7426.4437.8444.61-6.75-2.85
The CitadelSC0.314.5214.2931.60-0.22-1.66
ChattanoogaSC0.234.5040.0049.22-0.05-0.07
VMISC5.564.5037.5039.72-1.39-0.92
SamfordSC0.544.4733.3330.41-0.18-1.75
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4671.4363.610.001.21
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4420.0040.19-0.00-0.87
WoffordSC0.004.4477.7875.250.002.24
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4420.0034.77-0.00-1.35
FurmanSC0.004.4322.2231.12-0.00-1.67
GeorgiaSEC0.001.8762.5057.860.000.29
TennesseeSEC0.001.8555.5645.030.00-0.18
Kennesaw St.ASun5.561.8436.3629.81-1.52-0.74
Bethune CookmanMEAC5.561.7920.0031.86-3.33-0.65
Colorado St.MWC6.211.79100.0077.466.210.98
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7870.0060.270.000.37
PacificWCC5.831.7550.0035.900.00-0.49
Seton HallBE5.561.7588.8966.264.320.57
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.831.7528.5762.61-2.500.44
DartmouthIvy5.561.7244.4444.71-0.62-0.18
RiceCUSA5.561.7220.0028.02-3.33-0.76
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2066.6758.210.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.350.1877.7870.160.190.07
PresbyterianBSth0.000.180.008.60-0.00-0.15
ButlerBE0.230.1872.7367.960.110.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1766.6754.130.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1744.4437.40-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1645.4545.10-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1580.0067.830.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1544.4449.14-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1542.8649.51-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.250.1510.0018.05-0.20-0.09
AuburnSEC0.000.1450.0039.790.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.1480.0063.910.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1466.6766.010.000.05
NavyPat0.310.1320.0022.16-0.19-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1360.0038.030.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1387.5068.000.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.1357.1455.330.040.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0055.890.000.01
DukeACC0.000.12100.0087.090.000.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1250.0071.260.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1214.2944.44-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.310.1290.9170.080.250.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.1245.4543.23-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1218.1822.49-0.00-0.07
LipscombASun0.000.1222.2238.44-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3343.14-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.590.1211.1125.48-0.46-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.000.1180.0072.200.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1163.6465.220.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0096.290.000.11
MississippiSEC0.000.1170.0052.600.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1140.0032.26-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.350.0954.5557.570.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.310.0937.5046.38-0.08-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0937.5050.31-0.070.00
George WashingtonA100.280.0966.6765.500.090.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.0990.9190.540.000.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0944.4436.80-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.280.0960.0071.280.060.04
VCUA100.000.0972.7375.740.000.05
LongwoodBSth0.280.0920.0025.85-0.17-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0047.880.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0930.0036.69-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.460.0957.1457.100.070.01
ElonCAA0.000.0944.4451.07-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0927.2729.17-0.14-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0972.7367.520.000.03
North FloridaASun0.250.0950.0057.820.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0910.0027.17-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.280.0962.5072.070.070.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0061.480.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0955.5673.740.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0963.6440.190.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0960.0048.980.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0972.7362.220.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0754.5541.980.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6767.300.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.64-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.310.0677.7868.780.170.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.340.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.070.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.770.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.40-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.310.069.0916.15-0.25-0.04
MarylandB100.310.0690.9168.230.250.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.21-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0082.310.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0051.040.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5058.080.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0054.170.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.74-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.460.0677.7856.220.260.01
Washington St.P120.810.0640.0028.13-0.16-0.03
FIUCUSA0.230.0644.4450.41-0.030.00
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0637.5041.94-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3637.85-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6767.930.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.710.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0681.8263.330.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0636.3650.71-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0672.7374.850.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.63-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.02-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8649.02-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.280.0650.0050.620.000.00
KansasB120.350.0690.0070.680.280.02
MaineAE0.280.0611.1120.80-0.22-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.520.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.64-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.0627.2735.36-0.11-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.30-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.320.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.6467.210.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
Arizona St.P120.250.0654.5548.490.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.560.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.00-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2229.80-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.890.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.280.0666.6758.000.090.01
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.220.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0051.780.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.390.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.370.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.580.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.970.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.60-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.590.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.790.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.460.0316.6736.63-0.31-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.310.0311.1128.88-0.24-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2935.86-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.460.030.0039.10-0.46-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0390.9179.980.000.02
WashingtonP120.310.03100.0075.440.310.02
Western IllinoisSum0.310.0337.5031.88-0.08-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.310.0355.5652.610.030.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.280.0350.0054.190.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.280.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.280.0350.0060.410.000.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0342.8633.27-0.04-0.01
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.310.000.00
SeattleWAC0.350.0333.3343.83-0.12-0.00
SMUAmer0.350.0372.7375.710.160.02
St. BonaventureA100.280.0377.7865.110.150.01
UMass LowellAE0.280.0350.0050.490.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.030.0027.67-0.23-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.03-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.230.0390.9169.030.190.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0320.0027.29-0.15-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.0336.3645.11-0.07-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.74-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.0375.0058.160.120.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.250.0350.0058.370.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.0355.5655.280.030.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.230.0360.0058.120.050.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.250.0366.6764.770.080.01
TowsonCAA0.250.0360.0047.170.05-0.00
UCFAmer0.250.0355.5635.900.03-0.01
UMBCAE0.230.0318.1825.30-0.15-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
DenverSum0.280.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0360.0061.600.060.01
Missouri St.MVC0.280.0333.3337.22-0.09-0.01
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0052.35-0.140.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0333.3341.20-0.09-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3361.74-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.0337.5056.46-0.070.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0316.6740.27-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.280.0354.5532.590.03-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0336.3648.18-0.08-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.280.0340.0041.32-0.06-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.85-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0354.5548.260.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.280.0387.5085.480.210.02