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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:194.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:275
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14194.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16George Mason (201.0)A10H69-60W100%0.0
11-19Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH70-49W100%0.0
11-23Davidson (64.0)A10A77-71L0%0.0
11-26Tulane (227.0)AmerN61-71W100%0.0
11-27Appalachian St. (259.0)SBN71-70W100%0.0
11-29Western Michigan (202.0)MACN68-65W100%0.0
12-5Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH68-43W100%0.0
12-15Auburn (175.0)SECA78-71L0%0.0
12-19Arkansas (133.0)SECA66-69W100%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (74.0)B10A64-44L0%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA73-76W100%0.0
1-2Samford (252.0)SCH69-50W100%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (50.0)SCA74-62L0%0.0
1-9The Citadel (322.0)SCA80-91W100%0.0
1-14Furman (167.0)SCH69-65W100%0.0
1-16Wofford (199.0)SCH70-69W100%0.0
1-21East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA65-63L0%0.0
1-24Western Carolina (166.0)SCA86-80L0%0.0
1-28VMI (316.0)SCH73-58W100%0.0
1-30UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH81-67W100%0.0
2-1Samford (252.0)SCA70-85W100%0.0
2-6The Citadel (322.0)SCH88-72W100%0.0
2-8Chattanooga (50.0)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-11Wofford (199.0)SCA79-70L0%0.0
2-13Furman (167.0)SCA85-74L0%0.0
2-18Western Carolina (166.0)SCH65-72L0%0.0
2-20East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH74-77L0%0.0
2-25VMI (316.0)SCA91-82L0%0.0
2-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA69-65L0%0.0
3-4The Citadel (322.0)SCN71-69W100%0.0
3-5East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCN81-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC26.5226.5257.2557.253.853.85
East Tennessee St.SC5.865.8662.0762.071.421.42
The CitadelSC5.745.7426.9226.92-2.65-2.65
ChattanoogaSC4.434.4383.3383.332.962.96
FurmanSC4.354.3551.7251.720.150.15
SamfordSC4.334.3341.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Western CarolinaSC4.324.3239.2939.29-0.93-0.93
VMISC4.264.2620.0020.00-2.55-2.55
WoffordSC4.244.2442.8642.86-0.61-0.61
UNC GreensboroSC4.244.2437.0437.04-1.10-1.10
Alabama St.SWAC1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
DavidsonA101.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Appalachian St.SB1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
Ohio St.B101.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
Alcorn St.SWAC1.671.6748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
George MasonA101.661.6635.4835.48-0.48-0.48
ArkansasSEC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
TulaneAmer1.641.6436.3636.36-0.45-0.45
AuburnSEC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Western MichiganMAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
PresbyterianBSth0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
TennesseeSEC0.200.2044.1244.12-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.190.1982.3582.350.120.12
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
DaytonA100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Georgia TechACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
NavyPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
IllinoisB100.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
ButlerBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
CampbellBSth0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
MissouriSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
LSUSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01