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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:174.0
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14174.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UCF (84.0)AmerA88-79L0%0.0
11-14Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH86-58W100%0.0
11-17Liberty (211.0)BSthA48-63W100%0.0
11-18Drexel (242.0)CAAN59-78W100%0.0
11-19Colorado (82.0)P12N79-70L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee (8.0)SECA84-60L0%0.0
12-2Memphis (106.0)AmerA83-81L0%0.0
12-9Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH82-64W100%0.0
12-17La Salle (202.0)A10A95-85L0%0.0
12-19Alabama (42.0)SECN80-79L0%0.0
12-28Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH89-56W100%0.0
12-31East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH55-74L0%0.0
1-6Furman (97.0)SCA74-71L0%0.0
1-10Western Carolina (215.0)SCA58-56L0%0.0
1-13Samford (296.0)SCH81-50W100%0.0
1-15Chattanooga (304.0)SCH75-71W100%0.0
1-18VMI (313.0)SCA56-62W100%0.0
1-20UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA70-66L0%0.0
1-24East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA84-75L0%0.0
1-27The Citadel (281.0)SCH74-76L0%0.0
2-1Furman (97.0)SCH73-85L0%0.0
2-3Wofford (129.0)SCH73-65W100%0.0
2-10Chattanooga (304.0)SCA75-84W100%0.0
2-12Samford (296.0)SCA69-74W100%0.0
2-15VMI (313.0)SCH82-58W100%0.0
2-17UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH77-74W100%0.0
2-20Western Carolina (215.0)SCH81-64W100%0.0
2-23The Citadel (281.0)SCA70-83W100%0.0
2-25Wofford (129.0)SCA68-69W100%0.0
3-3Wofford (129.0)SCN53-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC26.4226.4255.2255.222.762.76
WoffordSC5.945.9462.9662.961.541.54
UNC GreensboroSC4.504.5079.3179.312.642.64
East Tennessee St.SC4.444.4470.0070.001.781.78
FurmanSC4.414.4165.5265.521.371.37
ChattanoogaSC4.384.3827.5927.59-1.96-1.96
The CitadelSC4.384.3825.9325.93-2.11-2.11
SamfordSC4.384.3828.5728.57-1.88-1.88
Western CarolinaSC4.334.3335.7135.71-1.24-1.24
VMISC4.324.3226.9226.92-1.99-1.99
MemphisAmer1.801.8060.6160.610.380.38
TennesseeSEC1.741.7475.0075.000.870.87
AlabamaSEC1.741.7454.5554.550.160.16
UCFAmer1.741.7458.0658.060.280.28
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
LibertyBSth1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
DrexelCAA1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
La SalleA101.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
ColoradoP121.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Jackson St.SWAC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
UNC AshevilleBSth0.330.3361.2961.290.070.07
High PointBSth0.280.2840.7440.74-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.199.689.68-0.15-0.15
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
KentuckySEC0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
North FloridaASun0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
ElonCAA0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
RadfordBSth0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
CampbellBSth0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
MassachusettsA100.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
HoustonAmer0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
FordhamA100.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
TempleAmer0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
ClemsonACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP120.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
DavidsonA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WashingtonP120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01