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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:194.6
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:145
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:176
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16188.663.32%
12-17205.036.68%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (4.8)SECN76-54L0%0.0
11-20Georgia Southern (106.3)SBH80-67W100%0.0
11-22Radford (225.6)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
11-25East Carolina (228.3)AmerN66-70W100%0.0
11-26Akron (53.3)MACN65-63L0%0.0
11-29Davidson (114.0)A10H57-78L0%0.0
12-3George Mason (114.1)A10A79-68L0%0.0
12-10Clemson (73.9)ACCA90-47L0%0.0
12-18Auburn (94.0)SECA76-74L0%0.0
12-22La Salle (116.1)A10H96-98L0%0.0
12-28Kennesaw St. (278.3)ASunA76-80W100%0.0
12-31Wofford (200.9)SCA88-71L0%0.0
1-2Furman (91.9)SCA71-69L0%0.0
1-5VMI (320.9)SCH68-50W100%0.0
1-7East Tennessee St. (62.6)SCH58-67L0%0.0
1-11Samford (176.8)SCA65-68W100%0.0
1-14Chattanooga (111.0)SCH68-70L0%0.0
1-19UNC Greensboro (115.4)SCA68-66L0%0.0
1-21Western Carolina (261.7)SCA50-70W100%0.0
1-28The Citadel (303.3)SCH82-66W100%0.0
1-30Western Carolina (261.7)SCH62-47W100%0.0
2-2Furman (91.9)SCH68-70L0%0.0
2-4Wofford (200.9)SCH62-65L0%0.0
2-9VMI (320.9)SCA51-81W100%0.0
2-11East Tennessee St. (62.6)SCA88-71L0%0.0
2-18The Citadel (303.3)SCA78-89W100%0.0
2-22UNC Greensboro (115.4)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-25Chattanooga (111.0)SCA54-64W100%0.0
2-27Samford (176.8)SCH0-064%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC26.4226.4243.6643.64-3.35-3.36
ChattanoogaSC4.514.4564.0064.911.261.33
VMISC4.514.4516.6717.82-3.00-2.86
East Tennessee St.SC4.484.4376.9276.562.412.35
FurmanSC4.554.4362.9662.961.181.15
SamfordSC2.834.4355.5655.560.310.49
Western CarolinaSC4.484.4323.0824.24-2.41-2.28
The CitadelSC4.484.4228.0027.40-1.97-2.00
UNC GreensboroSC4.484.4268.0066.651.611.47
WoffordSC4.554.4238.4638.46-1.05-1.02
RadfordBSth1.921.8540.7440.74-0.36-0.34
DavidsonA101.881.8150.0049.540.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun1.851.7940.7440.74-0.34-0.33
AkronMAC1.851.7877.7877.431.030.98
Georgia SouthernSB1.851.7861.5460.170.430.36
George MasonA101.851.7859.2658.530.340.30
La SalleA101.851.7850.0051.700.000.06
ClemsonACC1.821.7548.1550.73-0.070.03
AuburnSEC1.821.7557.1456.760.260.24
FloridaSEC1.821.7578.5778.671.041.00
East CarolinaAmer1.791.7246.4344.48-0.13-0.19
PresbyterianBSth0.360.3411.1111.11-0.28-0.26
CampbellBSth0.230.2540.7440.74-0.04-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.2472.4172.410.110.11
DaytonA100.230.2181.4880.740.150.13
High PointBSth0.230.2144.4444.44-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.230.2160.7161.450.050.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.230.2144.4445.74-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.190.2142.8642.42-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.160.2134.4833.33-0.05-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.190.2057.1457.030.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1853.5753.570.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.200.1871.4370.190.090.07
LibertyBSth0.190.1857.1457.140.030.03
StetsonASun0.190.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1873.3373.330.090.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1874.0774.070.090.09
Miami FLACC0.190.1871.4369.290.080.07
MassachusettsA100.190.1848.2847.58-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.190.1850.0051.170.000.00
West VirginiaB120.160.1579.3178.510.100.09
USC UpstateASun0.160.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.160.1582.7681.210.110.09
WinthropBSth0.160.1577.7877.780.090.08
Wake ForestACC0.160.1557.1455.730.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.160.1553.5754.970.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1524.0025.26-0.08-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.130.1557.1456.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1519.2319.72-0.08-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.130.1567.8668.280.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1582.7682.760.100.10
George WashingtonA100.160.1555.1754.140.020.01
VCUA100.130.1579.3178.000.080.08
LSUSEC0.160.1532.1431.69-0.06-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1555.1752.800.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.1479.3177.540.070.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1223.0824.04-0.07-0.06
NavyPat0.130.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.120.001.83-0.13-0.12
Georgia TechACC0.130.1253.5752.450.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1242.3142.60-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.130.1267.8668.150.050.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1235.7136.08-0.04-0.03
North FloridaASun0.130.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.1264.2963.720.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1250.0049.680.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.090.1125.0025.17-0.05-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1171.4371.670.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.1157.1456.750.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.0959.2659.260.020.02
Arizona St.P120.100.0946.6745.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0966.6765.850.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.0948.2847.22-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.100.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0914.8114.81-0.07-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0919.2322.18-0.04-0.05
MichiganB100.090.0965.5265.140.030.03
TCUB120.090.0957.1456.900.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0936.0035.98-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0934.4834.29-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0930.7730.93-0.04-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.100.0953.5755.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0986.2185.440.050.06
Georgia St.SB0.060.0961.5460.990.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0976.0077.290.050.05
UABCUSA0.090.0950.0052.300.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.9325.22-0.05-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.3142.27-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.990.000.00
OklahomaB120.090.0835.7135.48-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0871.4370.580.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0875.8673.450.030.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0848.1548.26-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0882.7682.930.060.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0862.0760.370.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0626.6727.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0653.5753.810.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0667.8666.170.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0662.9662.960.020.02
VermontAE0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0636.0040.25-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0657.6957.810.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.7159.700.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0680.7781.310.020.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0640.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0655.1754.740.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0651.8551.300.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
PennIvy0.060.0648.0049.55-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0642.3141.71-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0642.8642.02-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0648.1548.55-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0640.0041.22-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0629.6328.06-0.01-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0665.3866.640.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0644.4445.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0633.3332.49-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0631.0329.49-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0675.8674.140.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.6796.670.060.05
SMUAmer0.060.0686.2186.520.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.5752.890.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0617.8618.08-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.5266.270.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0326.9228.27-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0374.1974.190.020.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0314.8114.35-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0389.6688.490.030.02
LehighPat0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.8674.340.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0360.7163.340.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0356.0054.920.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.9276.820.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0390.0089.570.030.02
AmericanPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0360.7159.770.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0351.8550.780.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0375.0074.570.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0379.3179.060.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.7439.61-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0346.1546.13-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.01
Penn St.B100.030.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0351.7250.150.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0329.6331.85-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.6757.420.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.440.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.0762.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.7780.770.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0340.0042.28-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0340.0041.67-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0362.0761.430.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0379.3178.860.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0364.2962.630.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0358.6258.500.010.00