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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:195.8
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:15
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-569.20.05%
21-681.60.13%
20-795.00.64%
19-8112.62.12%
18-9128.65.69%
17-10145.79.92%
16-11165.815.85%
15-12186.218.89%
14-13208.217.16%
13-14230.713.92%
12-15253.08.85%
11-16274.24.38%
10-17292.61.58%
9-18309.40.60%
8-19322.10.18%
7-20329.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Seton Hall (45.4)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (304.6)ASunH74-66W100%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (54.8)MWCA75-62L0%0.0
11-27Rice (260.3)CUSAN0-065%4.7
12-6VMI (275.5)SCH0-078%9.4
12-16Dartmouth (269.9)IvyH0-074%7.9
12-19Bethune Cookman (338.0)MEACH0-089%14.7
12-22Tennessee (153.1)SECA0-023%-8.8
12-27Georgia (76.4)SECA0-012%-14.2
12-30Texas A&M (50.9)SECA0-08%-17.1
1-3UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCA0-064%4.2
1-5VMI (275.5)SCA0-057%2.2
1-8East Tennessee St. (152.9)SCA0-035%-4.7
1-10The Citadel (324.3)SCH0-085%12.2
1-15Furman (300.9)SCH0-085%12.4
1-17Samford (303.4)SCH0-083%11.4
1-22Western Carolina (210.2)SCA0-042%-2.4
1-29Chattanooga (232.7)SCH0-069%5.9
1-31Wofford (56.8)SCA0-014%-13.2
2-5The Citadel (324.3)SCA0-066%5.0
2-7Furman (300.9)SCA0-067%5.2
2-12Western Carolina (210.2)SCH0-065%4.8
2-14UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCH0-083%11.3
2-19Chattanooga (232.7)SCA0-046%-1.2
2-21Samford (303.4)SCA0-064%4.3
2-26Wofford (56.8)SCH0-031%-6.0
2-28East Tennessee St. (152.9)SCH0-058%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC31.2526.4933.3356.62-10.423.51
The CitadelSC0.004.860.0029.13-0.00-2.03
VMISC0.004.8425.0036.78-0.00-1.28
ChattanoogaSC0.004.8325.0048.27-0.00-0.17
SamfordSC1.394.8133.3335.61-0.46-1.38
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.8066.6759.250.000.89
Western CarolinaSC0.004.7740.0048.60-0.00-0.13
WoffordSC0.004.7780.0077.400.002.62
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.770.0028.76-0.00-2.03
FurmanSC0.004.7625.0028.12-0.00-2.09
GeorgiaSEC0.002.0160.0055.850.000.24
TennesseeSEC0.001.9850.0042.900.00-0.28
Kennesaw St.ASun16.671.9840.0031.19-3.33-0.74
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.9220.0032.20-0.00-0.68
Texas A&MSEC0.001.9275.0067.430.000.67
Seton HallBE16.671.88100.0062.9116.670.49
Colorado St.MWC16.671.85100.0066.9716.670.63
DartmouthIvy0.001.850.0036.53-0.00-0.50
RiceCUSA0.001.8533.3330.26-0.00-0.73
VanderbiltSEC0.000.22100.0053.810.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.19100.0071.480.000.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.19100.0045.580.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.190.0022.89-0.00-0.10
AlabamaSEC0.000.1980.0058.430.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1740.0053.46-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1750.0036.120.00-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1666.6753.550.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1650.0051.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.1660.0055.990.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1660.0037.550.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.160.0025.58-0.00-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.000.1433.3345.47-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.1420.0029.93-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1460.0036.000.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1366.6747.140.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.13100.0083.600.000.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1380.0071.650.000.06
MinnesotaB100.000.1350.0055.290.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0066.35-0.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1325.0052.61-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.13100.0069.720.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.130.0045.69-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1325.0039.50-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0079.750.000.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1350.0040.550.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0089.070.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0052.920.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1350.0064.920.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1340.0036.41-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.11100.0072.490.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1066.6749.610.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.1025.0040.45-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.1080.0073.080.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1075.0056.120.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth2.080.1040.0057.50-0.420.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1075.0069.280.000.04
NevadaMWC2.080.1025.0043.39-1.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0055.640.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1020.0022.02-0.00-0.06
Georgia St.SB2.780.1060.0067.690.560.03
ElonCAA0.000.1040.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1080.0071.830.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0065.430.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1050.0046.630.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1040.0052.52-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.100.0030.90-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0065.310.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0067.390.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0740.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0775.0072.040.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0775.0038.820.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.520.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3329.25-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0027.510.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0069.410.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0780.0062.960.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0057.480.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.070.0023.00-0.00-0.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0720.0029.02-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0720.0033.15-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0071.860.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0733.3359.02-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0783.3384.530.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0019.26-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.120.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0053.380.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.290.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3353.30-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0069.580.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0750.0042.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0038.94-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0775.0060.100.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.01-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0775.0064.980.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0742.8640.94-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0725.0035.38-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0052.420.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0766.6773.440.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.980.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.110.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0775.0067.420.000.02
PennIvy0.000.070.0023.29-0.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0037.52-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0720.0038.27-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0086.460.000.05
YaleIvy0.000.0780.0070.280.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.37-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.800.000.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0019.27-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.12-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.41-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.42-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.68-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.44-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.970.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.110.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0030.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3338.74-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0034.56-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.970.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6726.420.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.600.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0058.520.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0077.100.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.810.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0466.6760.360.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0024.09-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0425.0036.41-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0450.0044.930.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0450.0042.760.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.040.0042.16-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0466.6750.870.000.00
TexasB120.000.04100.0080.270.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0425.0041.79-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.810.000.01
MontanaBSky2.780.0333.3351.01-0.930.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0071.940.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0052.30-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.090.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.61-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3345.71-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0029.79-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.410.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.090.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0040.80-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.120.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0065.840.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC1.390.030.0033.69-1.39-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP121.390.0380.0070.250.830.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.79-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.520.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.110.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2931.08-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.150.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum1.390.0350.0047.310.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
SyracuseACC1.390.0380.0068.140.830.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.990.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0043.61-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0366.6740.010.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.57-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.110.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.150.000.01
Illinois St.MVC2.080.0350.0064.230.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.66-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.520.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0041.72-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02