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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Mercer

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:210.4
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:66
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-581.50.02%
21-691.50.11%
20-7101.10.62%
19-8120.22.08%
18-9138.15.22%
17-10159.49.81%
16-11179.714.42%
15-12200.618.15%
14-13221.518.38%
13-14241.814.27%
12-15263.59.10%
11-16283.25.11%
10-17301.21.76%
9-18315.60.68%
8-19326.40.23%
7-20335.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mercer.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Seton Hall (49.9)BEA63-47L0%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (318.7)ASunH74-66W100%0.0
11-23Colorado St. (68.3)MWCA75-62L0%0.0
11-27Rice (269.2)CUSAN0-065%4.5
12-6VMI (276.0)SCH0-076%8.6
12-16Dartmouth (291.3)IvyH0-075%8.2
12-19Bethune Cookman (324.0)MEACH0-084%11.9
12-22Tennessee (163.9)SECA0-022%-9.2
12-27Georgia (74.7)SECA0-011%-14.7
12-30Texas A&M (39.5)SECA0-06%-18.6
1-3UNC Greensboro (324.8)SCA0-062%3.8
1-5VMI (276.0)SCA0-055%1.4
1-8East Tennessee St. (194.2)SCA0-039%-3.4
1-10The Citadel (328.0)SCH0-085%12.4
1-15Furman (319.5)SCH0-088%13.8
1-17Samford (295.8)SCH0-080%10.2
1-22Western Carolina (212.2)SCA0-038%-3.6
1-29Chattanooga (250.7)SCH0-069%5.9
1-31Wofford (62.0)SCA0-013%-13.3
2-5The Citadel (328.0)SCA0-067%5.3
2-7Furman (319.5)SCA0-071%6.6
2-12Western Carolina (212.2)SCH0-062%3.5
2-14UNC Greensboro (324.8)SCH0-082%11.0
2-19Chattanooga (250.7)SCA0-046%-1.3
2-21Samford (295.8)SCA0-060%3.0
2-26Wofford (62.0)SCH0-031%-6.1
2-28East Tennessee St. (194.2)SCH0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mercer's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mercer's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mercer.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MercerSC32.2226.4933.3356.04-10.743.20
The CitadelSC0.004.860.0027.96-0.00-2.14
VMISC0.004.8433.3338.32-0.00-1.13
ChattanoogaSC0.004.830.0046.75-0.00-0.31
SamfordSC0.004.8140.0039.78-0.00-0.98
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.8050.0052.120.000.20
Western CarolinaSC0.004.770.0048.92-0.00-0.10
WoffordSC0.004.7780.0077.540.002.63
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.770.0029.10-0.00-1.99
FurmanSC0.004.7633.3324.52-0.00-2.43
GeorgiaSEC0.002.0175.0055.140.000.21
TennesseeSEC0.001.9850.0041.470.00-0.34
Kennesaw St.ASun16.671.9825.0027.93-8.33-0.87
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.9225.0039.09-0.00-0.42
Texas A&MSEC0.001.9275.0068.370.000.70
Seton HallBE16.671.88100.0062.3916.670.47
Colorado St.MWC16.671.85100.0061.6116.670.43
DartmouthIvy0.001.850.0035.12-0.00-0.55
RiceCUSA0.001.8533.3327.96-0.00-0.82
VanderbiltSEC0.000.22100.0050.370.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.19100.0060.160.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.19100.0046.960.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.190.0021.88-0.00-0.11
AlabamaSEC0.000.19100.0059.020.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1740.0054.34-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1750.0039.080.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1640.0049.19-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1650.0055.730.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.1675.0058.200.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1666.6740.980.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.160.0026.20-0.00-0.07
NavyPat0.000.1420.0032.30-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1466.6732.890.00-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1450.0045.380.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1366.6746.380.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.13100.0085.260.000.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.13100.0072.270.000.06
MinnesotaB100.000.1366.6762.360.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0069.20-0.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1333.3347.36-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.13100.0071.890.000.06
LipscombASun0.000.130.0043.50-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3340.10-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0073.710.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1340.0038.14-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0088.080.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0054.940.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1366.6768.430.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1366.6746.610.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0070.060.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1050.0046.140.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1033.3343.07-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.10100.0074.410.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth2.780.1050.0063.170.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1066.6776.480.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1066.6746.700.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1025.0020.19-0.00-0.06
ElonCAA0.000.1033.3341.23-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC2.780.1033.3347.23-0.93-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1080.0071.590.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0056.390.000.01
Georgia St.SB2.780.100.0058.69-2.780.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0061.860.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1066.6750.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.100.0045.55-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.100.0031.77-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0064.030.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0775.0065.560.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0725.0043.02-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.100.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0766.6739.840.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0775.0070.900.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.730.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0733.3321.72-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0066.600.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0064.500.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3334.44-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.070.0034.85-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0060.180.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.22-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.380.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.690.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0054.620.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.590.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0035.81-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0063.000.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0725.0036.88-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0766.6764.690.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3337.81-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.070.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0052.940.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.070.0032.88-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0067.640.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.430.000.01
IndianaB100.000.07100.0062.410.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.07100.0071.350.000.03
PennIvy0.000.070.0025.85-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0041.22-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0725.0043.58-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0081.220.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0017.40-0.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0085.040.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0070.560.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0775.0069.430.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.880.000.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.44-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0026.81-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.710.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0028.27-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3348.37-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0063.150.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.140.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.83-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.770.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3341.27-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.72-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0021.84-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.67-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.580.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0070.150.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0062.920.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0075.510.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.760.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.79-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0042.16-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.49-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.770.000.00
PurdueB100.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0044.56-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0042.650.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.04100.0065.000.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0024.68-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.040.0033.64-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0466.6752.830.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.04100.0048.750.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.040.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0450.0054.200.000.00
TexasB120.000.04100.0081.510.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0433.3343.32-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.650.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6763.860.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.140.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
MontanaBSky2.780.0333.3351.73-0.930.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.80-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.60-0.000.01
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.81-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0052.66-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.560.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0044.310.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.29-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0041.500.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.200.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.320.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.75-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC1.670.030.0032.38-1.67-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0035.32-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP121.670.0375.0069.780.830.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.28-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.23-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.480.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.980.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0050.460.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0052.16-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.770.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0028.32-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0054.510.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.51-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum1.670.0350.0045.000.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0366.6737.040.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.09-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0042.910.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6752.020.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.28-0.000.01
SyracuseACC1.670.0375.0068.410.830.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0034.180.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.220.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0044.81-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.030.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.310.000.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0067.490.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.870.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0032.53-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.62-0.000.00