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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


UNLV

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:123.3
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:296
Current Record:14-5
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:107
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-556.00.01%
25-663.90.13%
24-771.01.44%
23-882.25.18%
22-995.113.05%
21-10110.223.27%
20-11126.325.63%
19-12143.118.67%
18-13159.59.33%
17-14175.82.70%
16-15191.40.55%
15-16203.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH108-66W100%0.0
11-15Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH98-63W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (192.1)BSkyH91-76W100%0.0
11-20Rice (321.3)CUSAN95-68W100%0.0
11-22Utah (70.5)P12N85-58W100%0.0
11-25Southern Utah (264.9)BSkyH101-82W100%0.0
11-29Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCA77-68L0%0.0
12-2Arizona (15.5)P12H88-91L0%0.0
12-5Oral Roberts (220.4)SumN92-66W100%0.0
12-9Illinois (159.6)B10N89-82W100%0.0
12-16Pacific (176.2)WCCA76-81W100%0.0
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH95-63W100%0.0
12-22Northern Colorado (146.2)BSkyH94-91W100%0.0
12-30Boise St. (39.5)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
1-3San Jose St. (304.5)MWCA76-82W100%0.0
1-6Utah St. (167.7)MWCH78-85L0%0.0
1-10Air Force (250.5)MWCA76-81W100%0.0
1-17New Mexico (157.9)MWCH81-85L0%0.0
1-20Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA74-79W100%0.0
1-23Fresno St. (103.9)MWCA0-040%-3.0
1-27San Diego St. (86.0)MWCH0-049%-0.4
1-31San Jose St. (304.5)MWCH0-095%18.1
2-3Boise St. (39.5)MWCA0-027%-6.9
2-7Nevada (15.0)MWCA0-018%-10.1
2-10Wyoming (101.5)MWCH0-072%6.5
2-14Air Force (250.5)MWCH0-091%15.2
2-17San Diego St. (86.0)MWCA0-027%-6.8
2-21Fresno St. (103.9)MWCH0-062%3.5
2-25New Mexico (157.9)MWCA0-050%0.1
2-28Nevada (15.0)MWCH0-037%-3.7
3-3Utah St. (167.7)MWCA0-056%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNLVMWC26.3526.3068.0462.509.516.58
New MexicoMWC3.074.0942.1146.69-0.48-0.27
Utah St.MWC2.994.0942.1143.60-0.47-0.52
NevadaMWC0.434.0485.7182.720.302.64
Boise St.MWC2.914.0377.7876.251.622.11
San Jose St.MWC2.994.0312.5013.59-2.25-2.93
San Diego St.MWC0.344.0058.8262.890.061.03
Air ForceMWC2.914.0040.0033.95-0.58-1.28
Fresno St.MWC0.353.9466.6764.520.121.14
WyomingMWC0.482.5861.1157.820.110.40
Colorado St.MWC2.932.5147.3742.76-0.15-0.36
Southern UtahBSky2.851.8140.0035.08-0.57-0.54
UtahP122.971.8064.7161.060.870.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.861.7841.1847.68-0.51-0.08
PacificWCC2.711.7547.3745.99-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.771.750.0011.01-2.77-1.36
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.771.7522.2240.78-1.54-0.32
Northern ColoradoBSky2.701.7362.5059.250.680.32
ArizonaP122.771.7278.9578.281.600.97
RiceCUSA2.701.6711.7618.32-2.06-1.06
Florida A&MMEAC2.631.6110.5320.28-2.08-0.96
IllinoisB102.631.6150.0045.800.00-0.14
Northern IowaMVC2.631.6143.7550.75-0.330.02
Oral RobertsSum2.631.6131.5833.78-0.97-0.52
ColoradoP120.360.2860.0053.730.070.02
Montana St.BSky0.230.2650.0047.670.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.230.2656.2557.400.030.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2516.6724.46-0.14-0.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.290.2530.0036.48-0.11-0.07
OregonP120.340.2565.0063.830.100.07
DenverSum0.300.2333.3336.47-0.10-0.06
IdahoBSky0.230.2264.7166.850.070.08
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2043.7540.93-0.03-0.04
Arizona St.P120.200.1978.9576.130.120.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.340.1983.3384.230.220.13
MontanaBSky0.230.1870.5973.140.090.08
South DakotaSum0.290.1773.6872.360.140.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.1711.1115.30-0.17-0.12
EvansvilleMVC0.070.1752.6347.360.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.140.1763.1657.540.040.03
Portland St.BSky0.140.1758.8263.210.020.04
PortlandWCC0.210.1727.7827.30-0.09-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1752.6350.250.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.130.1780.9583.260.080.11
UTEPCUSA0.210.1633.3334.11-0.07-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.070.1647.3745.87-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.290.1658.8262.450.050.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.1633.3332.96-0.03-0.06
BYUWCC0.270.1680.9576.230.170.08
SouthernSWAC0.270.1627.7840.97-0.12-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1429.4134.76-0.06-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.290.1410.5318.34-0.23-0.09
Texas St.SB0.290.1457.8950.210.050.00
Long Beach St.BW0.210.1440.0043.34-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.1477.7871.650.120.06
Washington St.P120.000.1450.0042.180.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.1436.8431.12-0.02-0.05
Oregon St.P120.220.1457.8950.810.030.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.1370.0071.230.110.06
StanfordP120.200.1355.0050.370.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.1312.5025.47-0.16-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.070.1350.0048.740.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1321.0544.26-0.08-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1244.4446.10-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.1265.0057.870.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.210.1170.0068.420.080.04
ArkansasSEC0.130.1168.4264.200.050.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1125.0028.02-0.07-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.1144.4450.31-0.020.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.1190.4888.940.170.09
ValparaisoMVC0.140.1150.0051.360.000.00
SMUAmer0.210.1170.0070.630.080.05
WashingtonP120.150.1170.0061.440.060.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1127.7829.11-0.06-0.05
HawaiiBW0.140.1068.7563.960.050.03
TCUB120.070.1073.6865.590.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.070.1030.0039.93-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.1010.5316.75-0.05-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.1016.6724.29-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.1036.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1038.8943.43-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0960.0060.340.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0972.2272.970.030.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.0917.6523.89-0.10-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0917.6519.33-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0855.0049.070.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.150.0861.1147.260.03-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.0083.180.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0829.4133.22-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0821.0523.50-0.08-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.210.087.1414.82-0.18-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.0831.5832.72-0.08-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.220.0866.6765.530.070.03
UCLAP120.070.0865.0062.040.020.02
USCP120.070.0871.4368.300.030.03
MarylandB100.140.0870.0065.320.050.02
Texas TechB120.070.0878.9571.810.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0652.9452.620.000.00
ArmyPat0.080.0661.1160.530.020.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.700.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.25-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0623.5328.210.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0629.4133.940.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.350.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6755.930.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0628.5731.270.00-0.02
IowaB100.150.0647.6244.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0663.6457.640.040.01
Penn St.B100.070.0661.9055.770.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0641.1838.46-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.0660.0062.030.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0668.4254.090.050.00
TulsaAmer0.140.0655.0053.290.010.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0635.2935.570.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.150.0652.6345.860.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0568.4257.770.050.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0568.4263.640.030.01
MissouriSEC0.140.0566.6763.200.050.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.0580.0078.860.080.03
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.020.02
IndianaB100.000.0557.8950.680.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0566.6759.780.020.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0529.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0563.1663.180.020.01
RutgersB100.000.0557.8947.140.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0557.8953.190.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0550.0046.260.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0543.7554.09-0.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.380.050.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0550.0052.440.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.15-0.07-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0510.5327.31-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.62-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.140.0568.4263.980.050.01
DavidsonA100.000.0558.8261.440.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0561.1160.790.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0583.3381.410.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.700.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.26-0.04-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.12-0.08-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0380.0075.050.050.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.02
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.63-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.760.040.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.02-0.01-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.810.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0322.2228.590.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.520.000.02
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.04-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
MichiganB100.070.0375.0070.270.030.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.900.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.900.020.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.990.020.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.05-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0376.4769.020.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.930.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.670.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.620.020.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.610.030.01
UMBCAE0.070.0358.8258.360.010.00