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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UNLV

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:236.8
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:123
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18210.71.53%
12-19223.214.73%
11-20234.945.32%
10-21245.338.41%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Alabama (217.8)SBH68-76L0%0.0
11-16UC Riverside (319.3)BWH74-62W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Fullerton (292.2)BWH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Northern Arizona (339.2)BSkyH110-71W100%0.0
11-25TCU (62.0)B12H59-63L0%0.0
11-26Western Kentucky (218.0)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
11-30Southern Utah (342.0)BSkyA81-89W100%0.0
12-3Arizona St. (138.1)P12A97-73L0%0.0
12-10Duke (11.8)ACCN45-94L0%0.0
12-14Incarnate Word (295.1)SlndH92-64W100%0.0
12-17Oregon (8.1)P12N83-63L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (163.9)MVCH68-61W100%0.0
12-22Kansas (2.3)B12H53-71L0%0.0
12-28Colorado St. (77.8)MWCA91-77L0%0.0
12-31Wyoming (141.8)MWCH81-75W100%0.0
1-4Boise St. (63.4)MWCH59-77L0%0.0
1-7Utah St. (180.8)MWCA79-63L0%0.0
1-10New Mexico (83.2)MWCA66-71W100%0.0
1-17San Diego St. (97.5)MWCH51-64L0%0.0
1-21Air Force (248.2)MWCH87-85W100%0.0
1-25Wyoming (141.8)MWCA66-65L0%0.0
1-28San Jose St. (163.5)MWCA76-72L0%0.0
2-1New Mexico (83.2)MWCH77-80L0%0.0
2-4Colorado St. (77.8)MWCH49-69L0%0.0
2-8Nevada (39.0)MWCA104-77L0%0.0
2-11San Jose St. (163.5)MWCH74-76L0%0.0
2-19San Diego St. (97.5)MWCA77-64L0%0.0
2-22Air Force (248.2)MWCA81-58L0%0.0
2-25Nevada (39.0)MWCH0-021%-8.8
3-1Utah St. (180.8)MWCH0-042%-2.2
3-4Fresno St. (97.2)MWCA0-016%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNLVMWC26.3726.3129.6928.65-10.71-11.23
San Diego St.MWC4.194.0654.1755.000.350.41
San Jose St.MWC4.254.0345.4542.61-0.39-0.60
Utah St.MWC2.604.0340.0041.28-0.52-0.70
NevadaMWC2.474.0277.7877.471.372.21
Colorado St.MWC4.194.0162.5061.501.050.92
WyomingMWC4.164.0154.1753.770.350.30
Air ForceMWC4.194.0133.3332.34-1.40-1.42
New MexicoMWC4.194.0157.6956.900.650.55
Boise St.MWC2.562.5362.5063.620.640.69
Fresno St.MWC0.992.5357.6956.790.150.34
Southern UtahBSky1.971.7612.5013.83-1.47-1.27
Cal St. FullertonBW1.901.7052.1751.730.080.06
OregonP121.851.7085.1985.451.301.20
Arizona St.P121.891.7044.4442.22-0.21-0.26
KansasB121.881.6988.8987.431.471.27
UC RiversideBW1.861.6727.2729.52-0.85-0.69
Northern ArizonaBSky1.861.6724.0023.93-0.97-0.87
TCUB121.851.6657.6956.150.280.20
DukeACC1.821.6477.7875.381.010.83
Incarnate WordSlnd1.791.6133.3334.47-0.60-0.50
South AlabamaSB1.791.6141.6740.73-0.30-0.30
Southern IllinoisMVC1.791.6150.0049.830.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA1.791.6150.0049.180.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.350.2850.0050.340.000.00
WashingtonP120.300.2733.3332.52-0.10-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.2483.3384.080.200.17
UC IrvineBW0.180.2351.8554.430.010.02
DenverSum0.290.2357.1456.680.040.03
CaliforniaP120.260.2266.6766.210.090.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2043.4843.27-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.260.2056.0055.930.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2040.7442.89-0.05-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.2046.1546.35-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.2029.1731.48-0.10-0.07
Texas TechB120.200.2060.7159.310.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.200.1916.0016.87-0.14-0.13
ColoradoP120.230.1955.5655.660.030.02
StanfordP120.200.1950.0047.370.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.150.1825.0027.75-0.07-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1712.5014.87-0.08-0.12
IdahoBSky0.140.1747.8350.77-0.010.00
PacificWCC0.140.1732.1432.21-0.05-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.140.1740.9144.15-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.1728.0028.91-0.09-0.07
Kansas St.B120.170.1660.7159.890.040.03
USCP120.160.1677.7875.870.090.08
Oregon St.P120.100.1614.2913.58-0.07-0.12
Washington St.P120.170.1442.3139.94-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.140.1435.7134.84-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1488.8989.350.110.11
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1435.7135.66-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.130.1488.8988.050.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1448.1547.59-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1382.1481.630.100.09
BradleyMVC0.130.1334.4834.78-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.130.1389.2987.680.100.10
BaylorB120.160.1381.4878.550.100.08
HawaiiBW0.110.1248.0047.45-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.150.1229.6329.44-0.06-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1236.3636.47-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1242.8645.36-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1250.0049.560.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1165.3865.420.040.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1140.7440.12-0.03-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1160.8760.770.020.02
TroySB0.140.1153.8552.820.010.01
UtahP120.130.1160.0060.170.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1151.8551.270.010.00
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1124.0022.54-0.07-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.1164.0065.600.020.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1157.1457.070.010.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1151.7250.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.140.1163.6464.970.040.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.1134.7836.95-0.02-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1186.2186.330.090.08
UTEPCUSA0.130.1140.0041.64-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.130.1166.6764.750.040.03
OklahomaB120.060.1133.3333.59-0.02-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1166.6765.160.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1178.5777.800.060.06
IonaMAAC0.060.1062.0762.320.020.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0958.3359.220.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0959.0960.070.010.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0934.7836.63-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0948.1548.38-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0882.1480.780.040.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0850.0049.370.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.100.0829.6328.76-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0822.2223.45-0.03-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0842.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0869.2368.600.030.03
ArmyPat0.100.0839.2938.46-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.070.0844.0043.41-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0833.3334.37-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0885.1985.420.070.06
OaklandHorz0.070.0874.0773.500.030.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.0870.3769.250.040.03
UABCUSA0.100.0851.8553.220.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0634.7833.41-0.01-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0652.1753.700.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0660.8762.050.010.02
LamarSlnd0.040.0650.0052.050.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0640.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0651.8551.810.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0627.5928.17-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.040.0664.0063.500.010.02
BYUWCC0.030.0665.5264.140.010.02
NJITASun0.030.0629.6330.60-0.01-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0669.5771.400.010.02
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.540.050.04
AkronMAC0.070.0677.7876.390.040.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0646.1547.50-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0625.0025.31-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0632.1430.89-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0646.4343.89-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0620.0020.88-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0657.6955.370.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0660.0059.400.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.06100.0099.810.070.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.71-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0664.2964.460.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.040.0654.1753.210.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0646.1547.81-0.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0676.0076.570.020.03
UTSACUSA0.030.0536.0035.97-0.01-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0546.1546.03-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0532.1431.02-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0578.5777.380.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0525.0027.77-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0516.0018.13-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0522.2224.27-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0580.7779.440.040.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0559.2662.730.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0578.5778.520.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0557.6956.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0550.0050.440.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0541.6742.37-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0553.8552.600.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0578.5776.210.020.03
KentuckySEC0.060.0582.1481.760.040.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0553.8554.710.010.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0570.3767.240.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0582.1480.660.020.03
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0561.5462.870.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0564.2961.960.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0557.1455.800.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0360.7158.720.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0366.6763.170.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0327.2728.66-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0362.9661.410.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0351.8550.690.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0330.7734.71-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0312.0011.56-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0362.9661.340.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0356.0055.900.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0320.0021.74-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
SamfordSC0.040.0355.5656.300.000.00
SeattleWAC0.040.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0332.1431.91-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0361.5459.750.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.0071.920.020.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0360.7159.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0049.130.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.470.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7253.710.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0346.1546.49-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.43-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0351.8552.250.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0359.2659.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.9662.450.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0330.7730.10-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0079.920.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.8553.680.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0377.7875.390.020.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0322.2222.38-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0355.5656.900.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0382.1480.600.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0353.8554.930.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0355.5652.750.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.5752.940.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0369.2370.270.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.2417.48-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0359.2657.930.010.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.030.003.38-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0325.0025.84-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.370.020.01
OhioMAC0.030.0368.0068.550.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0353.5750.750.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0366.6766.780.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.6257.910.010.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0323.0822.08-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0318.5218.47-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0374.0773.870.020.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0366.6767.600.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0352.0053.050.000.00