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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


UNLV

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:110.1
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:235
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:325



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-318.00.03%
26-427.60.24%
25-535.40.79%
24-645.52.28%
23-756.05.38%
22-868.09.53%
21-982.314.31%
20-1097.616.72%
19-11114.416.95%
18-12132.013.73%
17-13151.69.76%
16-14170.15.51%
15-15190.03.06%
14-16208.21.23%
13-17222.20.33%
12-18241.00.12%
11-19263.00.01%
10-20298.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH108-66W100%0.0
11-15Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH98-63W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (169.9)BSkyH91-76W100%0.0
11-20Rice (260.0)CUSAN0-084%12.1
11-25Southern Utah (304.1)BSkyH0-095%20.1
11-29Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCA0-035%-4.8
12-2Arizona (10.4)P12H0-019%-10.4
12-5Oral Roberts (254.8)SumN0-086%12.8
12-9Illinois (84.8)B10N0-040%-3.0
12-16Pacific (229.0)WCCA0-070%6.3
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACH0-099%28.7
12-22Northern Colorado (254.9)BSkyH0-090%15.7
12-30Boise St. (59.7)MWCH0-055%1.4
1-3San Jose St. (274.9)MWCA0-079%9.7
1-6Utah St. (127.2)MWCH0-069%6.1
1-10Air Force (209.8)MWCA0-065%4.7
1-17New Mexico (141.4)MWCH0-070%6.3
1-20Colorado St. (161.3)MWCA0-058%2.3
1-23Fresno St. (87.8)MWCA0-041%-2.8
1-27San Diego St. (83.4)MWCH0-056%1.7
1-31San Jose St. (274.9)MWCH0-090%15.7
2-3Boise St. (59.7)MWCA0-035%-4.6
2-7Nevada (20.5)MWCA0-021%-9.8
2-10Wyoming (121.3)MWCH0-068%5.5
2-14Air Force (209.8)MWCH0-081%10.7
2-17San Diego St. (83.4)MWCA0-036%-4.3
2-21Fresno St. (87.8)MWCH0-061%3.2
2-25New Mexico (141.4)MWCA0-051%0.3
2-28Nevada (20.5)MWCH0-037%-3.8
3-3Utah St. (127.2)MWCA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNLVMWC32.6426.34100.0062.7532.646.72
New MexicoMWC0.004.2450.0051.380.000.12
Air ForceMWC0.004.21100.0046.130.00-0.33
Utah St.MWC0.004.2150.0050.910.000.08
NevadaMWC0.004.19100.0079.440.002.47
Boise St.MWC0.004.18100.0067.360.001.45
San Jose St.MWC0.004.180.0021.450.00-2.38
Fresno St.MWC0.004.1450.0060.880.000.90
San Diego St.MWC0.004.1450.0063.330.001.10
WyomingMWC0.002.68100.0058.290.000.45
Colorado St.MWC0.002.6166.6742.170.00-0.41
Southern UtahBSky0.001.8833.3327.960.00-0.83
Eastern WashingtonBSky16.671.8250.0053.470.000.13
PacificWCC0.001.810.0033.640.00-0.59
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.7933.3339.970.00-0.36
Prairie View A&MSWAC16.671.780.0035.02-16.67-0.53
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.780.0019.570.00-1.08
ArizonaP120.001.72100.0083.810.001.17
RiceCUSA0.001.7233.3337.180.00-0.44
Florida A&MMEAC16.671.670.0019.01-16.67-1.03
IllinoisB100.001.67100.0059.220.000.31
Northern IowaMVC0.001.6766.6763.130.000.44
Oral RobertsSum0.001.670.0023.610.00-0.88
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.270.0033.930.00-0.09
Montana St.BSky0.000.2733.3350.350.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.2766.6766.020.000.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.260.0023.910.00-0.13
DenverSum0.000.240.0038.100.00-0.06
IdahoBSky0.000.2350.0060.380.000.05
OregonP122.780.23100.0076.202.780.12
ColoradoP120.000.23100.0052.860.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.210.0028.170.00-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2050.0069.320.000.08
UtahP122.780.20100.0067.162.780.07
South DakotaSum0.000.1866.6767.630.000.06
MontanaBSky0.000.1850.0060.130.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.18100.0051.900.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.180.0024.440.00-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.000.18100.0052.950.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.180.0051.690.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1833.3352.000.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.18100.0059.250.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.18100.0048.130.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.18100.0086.180.000.13
PortlandWCC0.000.170.0029.710.00-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.170.0042.340.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1766.6757.400.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0044.630.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.15100.0057.270.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1566.6746.830.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.15100.0062.760.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1550.0051.070.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.1433.3346.090.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0037.120.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC2.080.14100.0075.132.080.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0050.360.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.1466.6767.320.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1466.6756.400.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1375.0048.770.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1266.6763.230.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3343.810.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1266.6740.170.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.120.0035.760.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3353.520.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.12100.0059.760.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0071.180.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1266.6742.260.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.120.0031.910.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1250.0034.730.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0088.360.000.09
StanfordP122.780.1275.0049.861.39-0.00
TCUB120.000.11100.0061.150.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0022.610.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0026.180.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.0032.770.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.110.0044.500.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1133.3353.300.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0966.6761.500.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.090.0040.830.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.090.0042.670.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3346.330.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0933.3331.840.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0077.820.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.090.0027.250.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.08100.0062.630.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.08100.0053.460.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0065.140.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
WashingtonP122.780.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0052.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0069.350.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6740.070.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6766.970.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0049.250.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.050.0035.450.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.050.0021.590.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.050.0046.080.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0533.3335.150.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.05100.0070.080.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0550.0073.230.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0366.6773.200.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0085.360.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3350.220.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.01
Miami FLACC2.080.03100.0074.502.080.01
Mississippi St.SEC2.080.03100.0051.082.080.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01