UNLV

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	134.0
Current RPI:	134
Expected SOS:	147
Current SOS:	147
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	91
Expected OOC SOS:	291

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	134.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	108-66	W	100%
11-15	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	98-63	W	100%
11-17	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	91-76	W	100%
11-20	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	N	95-68	W	100%
11-22	Utah (59.0)	P12	N	85-58	W	100%
11-25	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	101-82	W	100%
11-29	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	77-68	L	0%
12-2	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	88-91	L	0%
12-5	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	N	92-66	W	100%
12-9	Illinois (181.0)	B10	N	89-82	W	100%
12-16	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	76-81	W	100%
12-20	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	95-63	W	100%
12-22	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	94-91	W	100%
12-30	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	74-83	L	0%
1-3	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	76-82	W	100%
1-6	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	78-85	L	0%
1-10	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	76-81	W	100%
1-17	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	81-85	L	0%
1-20	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	74-79	W	100%
1-23	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	69-63	L	0%
1-27	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	88-78	W	100%
1-31	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	76-67	W	100%
2-3	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	93-91	L	0%
2-7	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	78-86	W	100%
2-10	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	85-70	W	100%
2-14	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	81-73	W	100%
2-17	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	94-56	L	0%
2-21	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	64-77	L	0%
2-25	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	91-90	L	0%
2-28	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	75-101	L	0%
3-3	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	79-67	L	0%
3-7	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	97-90	W	100%
3-8	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	74-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UNLV	MWC	26.39	26.39	56.77	56.77	3.58	3.58
Nevada	MWC	5.34	5.34	80.65	80.65	3.27	3.27
Air Force	MWC	5.30	5.30	38.46	38.46	-1.22	-1.22
Utah St.	MWC	4.01	4.01	45.16	45.16	-0.39	-0.39
New Mexico	MWC	3.99	3.99	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	3.98	3.98	68.97	68.97	1.51	1.51
Boise St.	MWC	3.87	3.87	71.43	71.43	1.66	1.66
Fresno St.	MWC	3.85	3.85	60.71	60.71	0.82	0.82
San Jose St.	MWC	3.85	3.85	11.11	11.11	-2.99	-2.99
Wyoming	MWC	2.53	2.53	61.29	61.29	0.57	0.57
Colorado St.	MWC	2.44	2.44	33.33	33.33	-0.81	-0.81
Southern Utah	BSky	1.71	1.71	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.69	1.69	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Pacific	WCC	1.68	1.68	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Utah	P12	1.68	1.68	65.52	65.52	0.52	0.52
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.63	1.63	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.63	1.63	12.90	12.90	-1.21	-1.21
Arizona	P12	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.61	1.61	63.33	63.33	0.43	0.43
Rice	CUSA	1.56	1.56	17.86	17.86	-1.00	-1.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.52	1.52	25.00	25.00	-0.76	-0.76
Illinois	B10	1.52	1.52	43.33	43.33	-0.20	-0.20
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.52	1.52	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.52	1.52	29.63	29.63	-0.62	-0.62
Colorado	P12	0.29	0.29	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.27	0.27	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	Sum	0.26	0.26	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Oregon	P12	0.24	0.24	64.71	64.71	0.07	0.07
Idaho	BSky	0.24	0.24	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	16.67	16.67	-0.15	-0.15
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.20	0.20	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	83.33	83.33	0.11	0.11
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Texas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
UTEP	CUSA	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01