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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UNLV

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:242.0
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:122
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21242.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Alabama (231.0)SBH68-76L0%0.0
11-16UC Riverside (330.0)BWH74-62W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH110-71W100%0.0
11-25TCU (67.0)B12H59-63L0%0.0
11-26Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH71-61W100%0.0
11-30Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA81-89W100%0.0
12-3Arizona St. (125.0)P12A97-73L0%0.0
12-10Duke (6.0)ACCN45-94L0%0.0
12-14Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH92-64W100%0.0
12-17Oregon (9.0)P12N83-63L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH68-61W100%0.0
12-22Kansas (4.0)B12H53-71L0%0.0
12-28Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA91-77L0%0.0
12-31Wyoming (152.0)MWCH81-75W100%0.0
1-4Boise St. (72.0)MWCH59-77L0%0.0
1-7Utah St. (181.0)MWCA79-63L0%0.0
1-10New Mexico (86.0)MWCA66-71W100%0.0
1-17San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH51-64L0%0.0
1-21Air Force (250.0)MWCH87-85W100%0.0
1-25Wyoming (152.0)MWCA66-65L0%0.0
1-28San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA76-72L0%0.0
2-1New Mexico (86.0)MWCH77-80L0%0.0
2-4Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH49-69L0%0.0
2-8Nevada (29.0)MWCA104-77L0%0.0
2-11San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH74-76L0%0.0
2-19San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA77-64L0%0.0
2-22Air Force (250.0)MWCA81-58L0%0.0
2-25Nevada (29.0)MWCH58-94L0%0.0
3-1Utah St. (181.0)MWCH66-59W100%0.0
3-4Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA72-59L0%0.0
3-8San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH52-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNLVMWC26.3126.3127.7027.70-11.73-11.73
San Diego St.MWC5.535.5351.7251.720.190.19
Colorado St.MWC4.064.0663.3363.331.081.08
NevadaMWC4.024.0281.2581.252.512.51
Utah St.MWC4.004.0042.8642.86-0.57-0.57
Air ForceMWC3.993.9931.0331.03-1.51-1.51
San Jose St.MWC3.953.9538.4638.46-0.91-0.91
WyomingMWC3.923.9253.5753.570.280.28
New MexicoMWC3.913.9155.1755.170.400.40
Fresno St.MWC2.542.5458.6258.620.440.44
Boise St.MWC2.502.5060.7160.710.530.53
Southern UtahBSky1.701.7013.3313.33-1.24-1.24
Arizona St.P121.681.6843.7543.75-0.21-0.21
OregonP121.661.6684.3884.381.141.14
KansasB121.661.6687.1087.101.231.23
Cal St. FullertonBW1.651.6553.5753.570.120.12
TCUB121.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
UC RiversideBW1.621.6223.0823.08-0.87-0.87
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
DukeACC1.591.5976.4776.470.840.84
Incarnate WordSlnd1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
South AlabamaSB1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Southern IllinoisMVC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.240.2463.6463.640.070.07
WashingtonP120.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
DenverSum0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
StanfordP120.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
Texas TechB120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
ColoradoP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.1618.5218.52-0.10-0.10
IdahoBSky0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
PacificWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
USCP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Kansas St.B120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1387.5087.500.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
UTSACUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00