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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


UNLV

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:134.0
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNLV.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH108-66W100%0.0
11-15Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH98-63W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (122.0)BSkyH91-76W100%0.0
11-20Rice (328.0)CUSAN95-68W100%0.0
11-22Utah (59.0)P12N85-58W100%0.0
11-25Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyH101-82W100%0.0
11-29Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCA77-68L0%0.0
12-2Arizona (13.0)P12H88-91L0%0.0
12-5Oral Roberts (255.0)SumN92-66W100%0.0
12-9Illinois (181.0)B10N89-82W100%0.0
12-16Pacific (190.0)WCCA76-81W100%0.0
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH95-63W100%0.0
12-22Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyH94-91W100%0.0
12-30Boise St. (50.0)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
1-3San Jose St. (314.0)MWCA76-82W100%0.0
1-6Utah St. (152.0)MWCH78-85L0%0.0
1-10Air Force (253.0)MWCA76-81W100%0.0
1-17New Mexico (118.0)MWCH81-85L0%0.0
1-20Colorado St. (234.0)MWCA74-79W100%0.0
1-23Fresno St. (103.0)MWCA69-63L0%0.0
1-27San Diego St. (62.0)MWCH88-78W100%0.0
1-31San Jose St. (314.0)MWCH76-67W100%0.0
2-3Boise St. (50.0)MWCA93-91L0%0.0
2-7Nevada (17.0)MWCA78-86W100%0.0
2-10Wyoming (98.0)MWCH85-70W100%0.0
2-14Air Force (253.0)MWCH81-73W100%0.0
2-17San Diego St. (62.0)MWCA94-56L0%0.0
2-21Fresno St. (103.0)MWCH64-77L0%0.0
2-25New Mexico (118.0)MWCA91-90L0%0.0
2-28Nevada (17.0)MWCH75-101L0%0.0
3-3Utah St. (152.0)MWCA79-67L0%0.0
3-7Air Force (253.0)MWCH97-90W100%0.0
3-8Nevada (17.0)MWCH74-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNLV's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UNLV's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UNLV.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UNLVMWC26.3926.3956.7756.773.583.58
NevadaMWC5.345.3480.6580.653.273.27
Air ForceMWC5.305.3038.4638.46-1.22-1.22
Utah St.MWC4.014.0145.1645.16-0.39-0.39
New MexicoMWC3.993.9951.6151.610.130.13
San Diego St.MWC3.983.9868.9768.971.511.51
Boise St.MWC3.873.8771.4371.431.661.66
Fresno St.MWC3.853.8560.7160.710.820.82
San Jose St.MWC3.853.8511.1111.11-2.99-2.99
WyomingMWC2.532.5361.2961.290.570.57
Colorado St.MWC2.442.4433.3333.33-0.81-0.81
Southern UtahBSky1.711.7137.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
PacificWCC1.681.6843.3343.33-0.22-0.22
UtahP121.681.6865.5265.520.520.52
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.631.6312.9012.90-1.21-1.21
ArizonaP121.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Northern ColoradoBSky1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
RiceCUSA1.561.5617.8617.86-1.00-1.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
IllinoisB101.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
Northern IowaMVC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Oral RobertsSum1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
ColoradoP120.290.2953.1253.120.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.270.2740.0040.00-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.260.2646.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.240.2460.7160.710.050.05
OregonP120.240.2464.7164.710.070.07
IdahoBSky0.240.2468.9768.970.090.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.2216.6716.67-0.15-0.15
Montana St.BSky0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.200.2077.4277.420.110.11
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Arizona St.P120.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
UC DavisBW0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
South DakotaSum0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
Texas St.SB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
UTEPCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
HawaiiBW0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
USCP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.088.008.00-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01