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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:134.6
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:137
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-974.40.30%
18-1087.12.92%
17-11103.112.75%
16-12121.326.82%
15-13139.830.30%
14-14157.018.85%
13-15173.26.84%
12-16189.61.14%
11-17206.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Coastal Carolina (155.6)BSthN56-73W100%0.0
11-15Montana St. (255.9)BSkyN83-62W100%0.0
11-16Hawaii (89.4)BWA76-75L0%0.0
11-21Pacific (242.2)WCCA82-85W100%0.0
11-25Portland St. (281.8)BSkyH76-73W100%0.0
11-28Cal St. Fullerton (284.0)BWA75-66L0%0.0
12-5Oregon St. (58.0)P12A66-62L0%0.0
12-12Drake (303.8)MVCH79-71W100%0.0
12-18Santa Clara (262.9)WCCH72-69W100%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (37.9)MVCA98-69L0%0.0
12-30New Mexico (94.2)MWCA88-76L0%0.0
1-2Wyoming (179.8)MWCH71-68W100%0.0
1-6Fresno St. (124.1)MWCA85-63L0%0.0
1-9Air Force (231.9)MWCA63-86W100%0.0
1-13Boise St. (88.3)MWCH67-74L0%0.0
1-20Wyoming (179.8)MWCA69-75W100%0.0
1-23UNLV (120.5)MWCH65-63W100%0.0
1-26San Diego St. (48.7)MWCH54-57L0%0.0
1-30Utah St. (163.3)MWCA84-89W100%0.0
2-6Colorado St. (180.3)MWCA76-67L0%0.0
2-10Air Force (231.9)MWCH0-086%11.6
2-13Fresno St. (124.1)MWCH0-058%2.1
2-17San Jose St. (295.3)MWCA0-067%4.8
2-20UNLV (120.5)MWCA0-020%-9.1
2-24Utah St. (163.3)MWCH0-066%4.4
2-28Colorado St. (180.3)MWCH0-064%3.9
3-2Boise St. (88.3)MWCA0-024%-7.7
3-5New Mexico (94.2)MWCH0-042%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC26.2826.3860.2356.735.383.55
WyomingMWC5.634.5047.6245.64-0.27-0.39
UNLVMWC3.194.5052.3856.330.150.57
Fresno St.MWC3.014.4760.0058.780.600.79
Air ForceMWC3.074.4747.6240.78-0.15-0.82
New MexicoMWC3.014.4559.0961.910.551.06
Colorado St.MWC2.964.4450.0049.120.00-0.08
Boise St.MWC3.084.4461.9060.640.730.94
Utah St.MWC3.064.4347.3749.15-0.16-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.862.8625.0022.36-0.43-1.58
San Diego St.MWC3.082.7871.4371.061.321.17
Montana St.BSky2.912.0742.8645.28-0.42-0.20
Cal St. FullertonBW2.751.9531.5829.67-1.01-0.79
PacificWCC2.681.9426.3230.04-1.27-0.78
HawaiiBW2.681.9283.3381.001.791.19
Wichita St.MVC2.611.9171.4375.491.120.97
Santa ClaraWCC2.561.8931.8232.30-0.93-0.67
Portland St.BSky2.681.8833.3339.17-0.89-0.41
DrakeMVC2.561.8522.7324.51-1.39-0.94
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.571.8263.1662.600.680.46
Oregon St.P122.561.8260.0054.800.510.17
Loyola MarymountWCC0.420.3539.1338.57-0.09-0.08
ArizonaP120.410.3479.1778.350.240.19
UC IrvineBW0.300.3372.7371.620.140.14
PortlandWCC0.420.3240.0038.51-0.08-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.350.2854.1755.070.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.310.2630.0034.56-0.12-0.08
UC DavisBW0.300.2640.0036.76-0.06-0.07
BYUWCC0.300.2566.6769.510.100.10
OregonP120.230.2582.6179.220.150.15
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.2465.2268.620.080.09
San DiegoWCC0.300.2331.8229.13-0.11-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.180.2245.4551.34-0.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.300.2245.8341.65-0.03-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.230.2256.5257.280.030.03
MontanaBSky0.250.2257.8962.300.040.05
EvansvilleMVC0.280.2275.0076.230.140.11
Weber St.BSky0.180.1965.0069.270.050.07
San FranciscoWCC0.230.1954.5550.100.020.00
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1939.1337.73-0.04-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.180.1915.0015.35-0.12-0.13
BradleyMVC0.220.1912.5012.85-0.17-0.14
ColoradoP120.240.1969.5765.360.090.06
Indiana St.MVC0.270.1952.1751.960.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.220.1972.0070.510.100.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1843.4842.62-0.02-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1728.5728.54-0.05-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.1642.8650.39-0.040.00
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1645.0046.12-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.1642.1145.70-0.05-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.1666.6767.690.080.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1610.0013.14-0.09-0.12
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1628.5726.96-0.05-0.07
CaliforniaP120.230.1665.2262.840.070.04
Illinois St.MVC0.220.1654.1750.940.020.00
DenverSum0.220.1554.1751.800.020.01
USCP120.170.1578.2673.050.100.07
RiceCUSA0.170.1528.5729.68-0.07-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1352.3854.010.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.170.1378.2676.800.100.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1385.7185.390.130.09
IdahoBSky0.120.1354.5554.950.010.01
UtahP120.230.1369.5767.490.090.04
AuburnSEC0.180.1340.9136.60-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.120.1356.5253.240.020.01
Washington St.P120.120.1236.3631.98-0.03-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1218.1821.06-0.11-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1023.8126.57-0.06-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1014.2915.45-0.09-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1063.6462.150.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1033.3334.94-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.0920.0022.32-0.07-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.060.0947.3749.98-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.120.0954.1751.640.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0935.0034.72-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.0956.5256.320.020.01
CampbellBSth0.130.0728.5729.64-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0745.4547.56-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0755.0057.480.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0725.0026.86-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.130.0750.0051.290.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0765.2266.170.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0765.0063.440.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0775.0071.700.030.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0747.6245.00-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0665.2261.090.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0624.0025.69-0.06-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.0682.6181.140.080.04
StanfordP120.060.0650.0046.620.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.120.0665.2261.430.040.01
IowaB100.110.0682.6180.590.070.04
KansasB120.120.0681.8277.600.070.03
ArmyPat0.060.0654.1754.570.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.069.0912.25-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.110.0669.5766.530.040.02
IndianaB100.060.0679.1774.020.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.8758.370.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0630.0029.25-0.02-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.0650.0051.180.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0683.3383.030.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0668.0067.980.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.069.0917.12-0.05-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0628.0030.74-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0641.6741.24-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.0661.9065.300.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0668.1866.690.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0622.7323.24-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0652.1751.940.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.510.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0428.5733.37-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0463.6460.930.020.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0434.7836.50-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0422.7324.96-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0443.4840.57-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0443.4846.23-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0354.5556.000.010.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0336.3638.93-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0362.5056.200.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0386.9682.610.050.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0359.0953.170.010.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0359.0960.100.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0359.0953.040.010.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0360.8760.760.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0336.3636.08-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0336.3633.47-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0373.9169.840.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0381.8283.040.040.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.4886.880.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.54-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0352.3847.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0359.0958.870.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0343.4842.00-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.23-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.580.020.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.31-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.70-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0382.6179.560.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00