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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:46.6
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:27
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-28.00.02%
28-311.50.11%
27-414.50.83%
26-518.42.80%
25-622.66.43%
24-727.812.18%
23-834.317.31%
22-942.118.34%
21-1051.916.52%
20-1162.612.30%
19-1275.07.28%
18-1389.13.67%
17-14103.21.48%
16-15118.80.52%
15-16136.10.15%
14-17160.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA81-63L0%0.0
11-14Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCH79-64W100%0.0
11-18Oregon St. (264.9)P12H83-58W100%0.0
11-20Iona (82.5)MAACH91-76W100%0.0
11-23Oakland (89.5)HorzN82-78W100%0.0
11-25Buffalo (138.0)MACN67-62W100%0.0
11-26Iona (82.5)MAACN75-73L0%0.0
11-29Pacific (155.8)WCCH77-67W100%0.0
12-3Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-083%11.4
12-11Washington (105.3)P12A0-042%-2.3
12-14UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-082%11.1
12-21Towson (160.8)CAAN0-075%8.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWN0-089%14.5
12-28San Jose St. (205.1)MWCH0-088%14.2
12-31Fresno St. (202.1)MWCA0-072%6.8
1-4San Diego St. (47.5)MWCH0-055%1.4
1-7New Mexico (84.5)MWCA0-051%0.4
1-14Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-067%5.4
1-18Air Force (197.4)MWCH0-085%12.3
1-21Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-086%13.0
1-25Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-050%0.0
1-28New Mexico (84.5)MWCH0-071%6.6
2-1Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-055%1.4
2-8UNLV (163.6)MWCH0-079%9.7
2-12San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA0-034%-4.8
2-15Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-069%6.1
2-18Utah St. (105.4)MWCH0-074%7.6
2-22Boise St. (106.2)MWCH0-070%6.2
2-25UNLV (163.6)MWCA0-062%3.5
3-1San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA0-075%8.0
3-4Colorado St. (89.8)MWCH0-071%6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC31.1826.3773.3371.3914.5511.28
Fresno St.MWC0.454.0760.0041.030.09-0.73
Air ForceMWC0.004.0550.0044.170.00-0.47
Boise St.MWC0.004.0550.0060.380.000.84
San Jose St.MWC0.524.0440.0038.96-0.10-0.89
San Diego St.MWC0.004.0475.0076.550.002.14
Utah St.MWC0.004.0450.0054.930.000.40
UNLVMWC0.004.0371.4350.970.000.08
New MexicoMWC0.004.0271.4360.080.000.81
IonaMAAC12.503.2866.6771.534.171.41
Colorado St.MWC0.002.5583.3362.660.000.64
WyomingMWC0.522.5460.0049.190.10-0.04
PacificWCC6.251.8460.0050.701.250.03
Saint Mary'sWCC6.251.81100.0088.656.251.40
Loyola MarymountWCC6.251.8150.0047.290.00-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.521.7850.0056.010.000.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.720.0034.29-0.00-0.54
Oregon St.P126.251.7033.3324.58-2.08-0.86
TowsonCAA0.001.6650.0055.510.000.18
WashingtonP120.001.6457.1452.450.000.08
BradleyMVC0.001.6150.0029.700.00-0.65
BuffaloMAC6.251.6150.0052.730.000.09
OaklandHorz6.251.61100.0081.236.251.01
PortlandWCC0.000.3160.0057.170.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.2628.5727.50-0.00-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2537.5036.24-0.00-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.25100.0091.060.000.21
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2516.6743.29-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.2571.4366.730.000.08
BYUWCC0.000.2271.4368.660.000.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2216.6730.02-0.00-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2271.4368.100.000.08
Cal PolyBW0.000.2033.3335.92-0.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.520.2057.1448.410.07-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.2083.3363.610.000.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.200.0039.35-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2083.3350.740.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1957.1436.050.00-0.05
ColoradoP120.000.1971.4359.850.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.170.0023.26-0.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.000.170.0033.43-0.00-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1714.2929.81-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.1750.0035.230.00-0.05
UCLAP120.520.16100.0083.550.520.11
DrakeMVC1.250.160.0021.30-1.25-0.09
ArizonaP120.000.1685.7170.990.000.07
DenverSum0.000.1433.3341.11-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.520.1433.3343.64-0.17-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.1450.0036.820.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.1483.3369.840.000.06
Western MichiganMAC0.520.1416.6736.45-0.35-0.04
Weber St.BSky1.880.1420.0054.94-1.120.01
USCP120.000.14100.0075.380.000.07
StanfordP120.520.1475.0059.100.260.02
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.1340.0040.65-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1333.3341.52-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.620.1316.6727.03-0.42-0.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0047.990.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0059.670.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1214.2947.44-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1250.0050.940.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1166.6754.420.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.970.1116.6732.62-0.64-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1133.3346.81-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.1142.8650.32-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1162.5056.500.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1133.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1175.0064.960.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.1180.0068.320.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1150.0066.170.000.03
UtahP120.000.1175.0061.040.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1142.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1150.0046.670.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1083.3362.080.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1033.3338.19-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.1042.8635.68-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1071.4371.570.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1016.6734.31-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1060.0052.760.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1028.5750.51-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
LamarSlnd0.450.0860.0043.970.09-0.01
UTSACUSA0.450.0828.5728.46-0.19-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0814.2937.52-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0857.1464.940.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3333.15-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0840.0057.49-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0850.0052.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.520.0833.3348.71-0.17-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0850.0051.820.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0871.4343.020.19-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0039.28-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.520.0866.6772.440.170.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0857.1448.240.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0871.4386.030.000.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.080.0037.92-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0857.1440.550.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0820.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0814.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.520.050.0017.30-0.52-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0525.0053.29-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0024.25-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0542.8636.82-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.050.0028.15-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.170.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0525.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0540.0055.44-0.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Florida St.ACC1.250.0585.7162.410.890.01
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0583.3361.150.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer1.040.0333.3338.76-0.35-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky1.040.0325.0040.37-0.52-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.620.03100.0076.650.620.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.520.030.0019.30-0.52-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.520.0357.1461.940.070.01
XavierBE0.620.03100.0074.800.620.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.520.030.0021.30-0.52-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.450.0360.0039.200.09-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01