Nevada

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	171.0
Current RPI:	171
Expected SOS:	51
Current SOS:	51
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	3-14
Expected Conf Record:	3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-1
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	130
Expected OOC SOS:	185

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	171.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	78-64	L	0%
11-16	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	80-77	W	100%
11-17	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	71-69	W	100%
11-18	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	79-61	W	100%
11-24	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	89-82	L	0%
11-28	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	84-83	W	100%
11-30	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	66-76	L	0%
12-4	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	78-72	L	0%
12-8	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	73-76	W	100%
12-11	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	69-56	W	100%
12-15	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	59-51	W	100%
12-28	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	85-75	W	100%
12-31	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	56-43	L	0%
1-9	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	78-65	L	0%
1-12	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	48-59	L	0%
1-19	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	61-68	W	100%
1-23	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	57-78	L	0%
1-26	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	75-59	W	100%
1-29	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	66-54	L	0%
2-2	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	75-62	L	0%
2-6	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	69-73	L	0%
2-9	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	74-69	W	100%
2-13	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	68-48	L	0%
2-19	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	64-69	L	0%
2-23	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	88-75	L	0%
2-27	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	73-47	L	0%
3-2	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	63-80	L	0%
3-6	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	62-75	L	0%
3-9	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	77-66	L	0%
3-12	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	N	85-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nevada	MWC	26.37	26.37	32.03	32.03	-9.48	-9.48
Wyoming	MWC	5.82	5.82	51.85	51.85	0.22	0.22
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.38	4.38	70.97	70.97	1.84	1.84
New Mexico	MWC	4.36	4.36	84.38	84.38	3.00	3.00
Colorado St.	MWC	4.30	4.30	72.41	72.41	1.93	1.93
San Diego St.	MWC	4.29	4.29	64.29	64.29	1.23	1.23
Fresno St.	MWC	4.29	4.29	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Boise St.	MWC	4.21	4.21	66.67	66.67	1.40	1.40
Air Force	MWC	4.20	4.20	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Pacific	BW	2.03	2.03	61.29	61.29	0.46	0.46
UC Irvine	BW	2.02	2.02	53.12	53.12	0.13	0.13
Cal Poly	BW	2.02	2.02	57.14	57.14	0.29	0.29
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.96	1.96	41.38	41.38	-0.34	-0.34
UC Davis	BW	1.91	1.91	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Washington	P12	1.85	1.85	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
Oregon	P12	1.79	1.79	75.76	75.76	0.92	0.92
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.75	1.75	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
San Francisco	WCC	1.75	1.75	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Southern Utah	BSky	1.72	1.72	32.14	32.14	-0.61	-0.61
Drake	MVC	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Marshall	CUSA	1.67	1.67	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Yale	Ivy	1.67	1.67	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.58	0.58	31.03	31.03	-0.22	-0.22
Long Beach St.	BW	0.44	0.44	56.67	56.67	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.39	0.39	14.29	14.29	-0.28	-0.28
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.38	0.38	38.46	38.46	-0.09	-0.09
Hawaii	BW	0.35	0.35	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.33	0.33	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.30	0.30	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.27	0.27	73.53	73.53	0.13	0.13
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Southern California	P12	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.19	0.19	81.25	81.25	0.12	0.12
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Valparaiso	Horz	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.10	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Army	Pat	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00