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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Nevada

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:63.3
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:153
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:8-1
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Probability of Auto Bid:26.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-437.72.53%
23-545.613.82%
22-655.530.94%
21-766.931.46%
20-880.116.42%
19-994.14.37%
18-10108.60.43%
17-11121.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Missouri St. (82.4)MVCH46-68L0%0.0
11-14Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCA71-67L0%0.0
11-17Pacific (265.6)BWH78-54W100%0.0
11-20Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACH60-47W100%0.0
11-22Longwood (311.5)indH80-78W100%0.0
11-25Brigham Young (44.9)WCCN55-76L0%0.0
11-26Bradley (248.0)MVCN64-59W100%0.0
12-2Washington (69.1)P12H76-73W100%0.0
12-7Arizona St. (241.2)P12A61-69W100%0.0
12-10Montana (101.6)BSkyA64-70W100%0.0
12-17UC Riverside (257.6)BWH71-47W100%0.0
12-22Portland (215.5)WCCH78-60W100%0.0
1-5Idaho (169.6)WACA55-73W100%0.0
1-7Utah St. (132.3)WACA71-78W100%0.0
1-12San Jose St. (281.3)WACH81-57W100%0.0
1-14Hawaii (184.5)WACH77-74W100%0.0
1-21Fresno St. (183.3)WACH74-61W100%0.0
1-26New Mexico St. (73.3)WACA60-68W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana Tech (204.7)WACA63-65W100%0.0
2-2Utah St. (132.3)WACH53-52W100%0.0
2-4Idaho (169.6)WACH68-72L0%0.0
2-9Hawaii (184.5)WACA0-057%2.1
2-11San Jose St. (281.3)WACA0-078%8.6
2-14Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)indH0-089%13.4
2-18Iona (46.0)MAACA0-023%-8.2
2-25Fresno St. (183.3)WACA0-052%0.5
3-1New Mexico St. (73.3)WACH0-055%1.3
3-3Louisiana Tech (204.7)WACH0-086%11.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaWAC26.3426.2977.7875.1414.6413.22
HawaiiWAC3.034.4360.0055.570.610.49
New Mexico St.WAC2.874.3872.7372.211.301.94
Utah St.WAC5.314.3754.5556.710.480.59
Fresno St.WAC3.144.3740.9145.97-0.57-0.35
San Jose St.WAC2.924.3728.5728.14-1.25-1.91
IdahoWAC5.244.3747.3751.16-0.280.10
Louisiana TechWAC2.864.3145.0046.15-0.29-0.33
PacificBW2.762.1636.8438.91-0.73-0.48
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.442.1347.8349.29-0.02-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC2.651.9773.9175.151.270.99
MontanaBSky2.551.9573.6876.091.211.02
UC RiversideBW2.551.9145.0041.12-0.26-0.34
PortlandWCC2.541.9122.7322.51-1.39-1.05
Arizona St.P122.481.9031.8232.52-0.90-0.67
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.441.8881.8280.801.551.16
WashingtonP122.481.8872.7368.831.130.71
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.491.8536.8442.30-0.66-0.29
Longwoodind2.491.8531.5828.92-0.92-0.78
BradleyMVC2.431.8525.0025.69-1.22-0.90
Missouri St.MVC2.431.8452.1755.720.110.21
IonaMAAC0.001.7979.1780.200.001.08
Seattleind0.420.4623.5333.28-0.22-0.15
Cal PolyBW0.330.4150.0056.760.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.3521.0522.46-0.13-0.19
UC DavisBW0.400.320.005.37-0.40-0.28
San FranciscoWCC0.380.3156.5253.770.050.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.320.3155.5658.010.040.05
Montana St.BSky0.340.2945.0041.76-0.03-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.320.2742.8641.13-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.210.2531.8233.83-0.08-0.08
Washington St.P120.330.2550.0048.170.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.260.2481.8281.030.160.15
Long Beach St.BW0.290.2371.4373.350.120.11
Portland St.BSky0.180.2242.8645.80-0.03-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.210.2281.8281.490.130.14
Santa ClaraWCC0.270.2228.5726.30-0.11-0.10
Oregon St.P120.280.2263.6463.160.080.06
Weber St.BSky0.260.2280.0076.840.160.12
OregonP120.260.2169.5764.530.100.06
UtahP120.260.2118.1815.01-0.16-0.15
Southern MississippiCUSA0.210.2185.7182.180.150.14
Wichita St.MVC0.300.2182.6180.420.190.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.2065.0066.700.030.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.1940.9144.03-0.05-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.210.1933.3333.82-0.07-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.230.1935.0035.26-0.07-0.06
ColoradoP120.160.1866.6762.650.050.05
Southern CaliforniaP120.210.1825.0025.13-0.11-0.09
Texas El PasoCUSA0.210.1843.4843.31-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.160.1866.6768.550.050.07
DrakeMVC0.150.1852.1750.090.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1862.5062.060.050.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.1630.0033.20-0.02-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1613.6416.14-0.12-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1633.3333.88-0.05-0.05
North DakotaGWC0.110.1633.3341.31-0.04-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.200.1690.9187.740.160.12
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.160.1557.1460.750.020.03
StanfordP120.210.1569.5768.290.080.06
CaliforniaP120.210.1575.0074.610.100.07
WyomingMWC0.160.1576.1970.730.080.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.1333.3338.38-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1310.0014.93-0.09-0.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1330.0031.54-0.04-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1359.0957.760.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1217.3924.41-0.07-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.110.1245.0046.13-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1217.3919.81-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1241.1842.61-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1238.1037.86-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.160.1276.1975.940.080.06
ManhattanMAAC0.050.1268.0069.070.020.05
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.1221.7424.58-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.100.1254.5556.790.010.02
CreightonMVC0.190.1287.5085.410.150.08
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1245.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1256.5254.220.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1262.5061.500.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1234.7832.06-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0966.6760.800.040.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.160.0954.5557.690.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0985.7178.050.080.05
Southern UtahSum0.100.0945.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0943.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0927.7829.87-0.02-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.098.708.99-0.09-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.0947.8348.56-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.150.0975.0073.970.070.04
DenverSB0.100.0970.8372.230.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0954.5554.300.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0961.9063.520.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.0918.1821.13-0.09-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.000.0719.0524.61-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0617.6527.10-0.04-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.060.0615.0015.73-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0619.0525.52-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0650.0058.160.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0633.3337.25-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0631.8242.13-0.04-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.110.0635.0039.38-0.03-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.0641.6740.61-0.02-0.01
XavierA100.060.0665.2263.740.020.02
BaylorB120.110.0690.9183.850.090.04
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.0634.7835.20-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.100.0666.6769.690.030.02
St. LouisA100.100.0677.2777.670.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0669.5765.150.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0642.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.0054.480.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0627.7829.58-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.110.0659.0957.930.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0628.5734.20-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0671.4369.050.040.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.000.0677.2773.450.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0634.7833.43-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0678.2672.340.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0637.5041.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0637.5038.52-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0645.4545.55-0.00-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.100.0660.8759.050.020.01
ArmyPat0.060.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0327.2723.80-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0327.2735.02-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0051.730.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.038.7012.13-0.05-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0336.3638.48-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.060.039.5213.19-0.05-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0368.1869.680.000.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0365.2263.740.020.01
Texas TechB120.000.0331.8225.98-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0369.5765.870.020.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0381.8276.800.040.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0345.0044.15-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9168.430.030.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.050.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0345.4546.08-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0350.0051.530.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0332.0035.39-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0372.7364.430.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.000.0370.8371.050.000.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0359.0959.720.000.01
MarylandACC0.000.0359.0950.820.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.000.0360.0058.290.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
PurdueB100.000.0365.2260.580.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0362.5062.490.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.02
VermontAE0.000.0360.0062.490.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.96-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0312.5013.44-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.000.0319.0521.29-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.01-0.01