live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:15.1
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:51
Current Record:18-3
Expected Record:26-6
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-37.33.62%
28-49.014.38%
27-511.526.80%
26-615.127.11%
25-719.618.07%
24-825.77.52%
23-933.12.17%
22-1041.00.31%
21-1151.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Idaho (146.3)BSkyH88-64W100%0.0
11-13Rhode Island (14.4)A10H88-81W100%0.0
11-15Santa Clara (259.3)WCCA63-93W100%0.0
11-18Pacific (174.7)WCCA74-89W100%0.0
11-21Davidson (81.5)A10H81-68W100%0.0
11-24Hawaii (161.9)BWA54-67W100%0.0
11-29Illinois St. (119.5)MVCH98-68W100%0.0
12-2UC Irvine (176.3)BWA65-76W100%0.0
12-5Texas Tech (26.3)B12A82-76L0%0.0
12-8TCU (28.0)B12N84-80L0%0.0
12-17Radford (143.9)BSthH77-62W100%0.0
12-19UC Davis (106.7)BWH88-73W100%0.0
12-22Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCN86-64W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (171.9)WCCN64-66L0%0.0
12-27Fresno St. (104.0)MWCA65-80W100%0.0
12-30New Mexico (157.1)MWCH77-74W100%0.0
1-3Wyoming (100.7)MWCH92-83W100%0.0
1-6Air Force (249.1)MWCA75-86W100%0.0
1-13Utah St. (167.9)MWCH83-57W100%0.0
1-17San Jose St. (304.2)MWCA54-71W100%0.0
1-20Boise St. (39.0)MWCH74-68W100%0.0
1-24Wyoming (100.7)MWCA0-073%7.0
1-31Fresno St. (104.0)MWCH0-082%10.3
2-3Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA0-083%10.7
2-7UNLV (123.8)MWCH0-082%10.1
2-10San Diego St. (85.9)MWCH0-072%6.5
2-14Boise St. (39.0)MWCA0-050%-0.1
2-17Utah St. (167.9)MWCA0-078%8.5
2-21San Jose St. (304.2)MWCH0-099%25.0
2-25Colorado St. (176.5)MWCH0-094%17.1
2-28UNLV (123.8)MWCA0-063%3.7
3-3San Diego St. (85.9)MWCA0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC26.3626.2986.6083.8519.3017.79
WyomingMWC2.623.9364.7159.940.770.78
San Jose St.MWC2.703.9212.5013.75-2.03-2.84
UNLVMWC0.393.9173.6867.870.181.40
Utah St.MWC2.713.9047.3747.94-0.14-0.16
San Diego St.MWC0.383.9058.8264.680.071.15
Boise St.MWC2.693.9083.3380.831.802.40
Colorado St.MWC0.403.8845.0043.46-0.04-0.51
Fresno St.MWC2.643.8470.5967.631.091.35
New MexicoMWC2.782.4547.3750.24-0.150.01
Air ForceMWC2.642.3940.0032.98-0.53-0.81
PacificWCC2.661.8647.3746.01-0.14-0.15
UC DavisBW2.761.7862.5064.760.690.52
UC IrvineBW2.581.7631.5841.31-0.95-0.31
Santa ClaraWCC2.581.7535.2934.16-0.76-0.55
San FranciscoWCC2.581.7347.3746.97-0.14-0.10
HawaiiBW2.521.7073.3366.451.180.56
Southern IllinoisMVC2.511.6757.8954.280.400.14
Illinois St.MVC2.501.6750.0047.730.00-0.08
DavidsonA102.461.6562.5063.650.610.45
TCUB122.441.6472.2264.461.080.47
IdahoBSky2.511.6268.7569.330.940.62
RadfordBSth2.511.6261.1160.950.560.35
Rhode IslandA102.381.6288.2484.341.821.11
Texas TechB122.381.6177.7870.871.320.67
Long Beach St.BW0.330.3040.0043.35-0.07-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.340.2823.5328.21-0.18-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.190.2763.1657.540.050.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.260.2716.6724.45-0.17-0.14
PortlandWCC0.320.2727.7827.28-0.14-0.12
GonzagaWCC0.310.2780.9583.260.190.18
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.2490.4888.960.250.19
BYUWCC0.310.2480.9576.240.190.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2217.6519.30-0.13-0.14
UC RiversideBW0.200.2217.6523.86-0.13-0.12
Southern UtahBSky0.200.2237.5033.78-0.05-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.2158.8257.140.050.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.2127.7829.10-0.11-0.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1970.5969.630.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.250.1952.6347.520.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.190.1947.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.1838.8946.05-0.04-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.340.1730.0036.50-0.14-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1756.2556.830.020.02
DenverSum0.270.1633.3336.48-0.09-0.04
BradleyMVC0.120.1665.0057.880.040.03
OregonP120.130.1665.0063.850.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.240.1610.5318.34-0.19-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1678.9574.190.110.08
DrakeMVC0.190.1655.0048.980.02-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.1670.0068.300.030.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.1683.3384.240.170.11
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1644.4450.08-0.010.00
Iowa St.B120.190.1561.1147.220.04-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.130.1450.0047.660.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.200.1458.8263.210.030.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1456.2557.400.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.200.1344.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.180.1378.9576.130.100.07
St. BonaventureA100.200.1366.6768.730.070.05
WinthropBSth0.120.1350.0059.450.000.02
UtahP120.130.1363.1659.710.040.03
Kansas St.B120.180.1373.6862.720.090.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1129.4133.20-0.08-0.04
Washington St.P120.140.1147.3741.44-0.01-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.1111.1115.29-0.15-0.08
George MasonA100.200.1145.0041.30-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.1168.4264.200.020.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.1125.0031.45-0.10-0.04
ColoradoP120.130.1160.0053.720.030.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1157.8950.210.020.00
DuquesneA100.120.1170.0058.090.050.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1121.0539.48-0.08-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1061.1151.910.030.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.100.0010.67-0.06-0.08
RiceCUSA0.120.1011.1117.68-0.10-0.07
BaylorB120.130.1061.1156.090.030.01
KansasB120.130.1084.2179.750.090.06
OklahomaB120.190.1077.7867.910.100.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1068.4254.090.000.01
TexasB120.130.1063.1657.630.030.02
West VirginiaB120.060.1084.2178.170.040.06
North DakotaBSky0.140.0829.4134.76-0.06-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0843.7540.93-0.01-0.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0873.6872.380.060.04
DaytonA100.070.0847.3750.94-0.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0831.5829.06-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.140.0845.0043.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0840.0042.69-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0831.5834.36-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0852.6358.590.010.01
Saint LouisA100.200.0847.3746.92-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.120.0833.3334.10-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.130.0870.0070.570.050.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.0872.2272.980.060.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0821.0544.26-0.07-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0880.0078.940.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.0666.6766.020.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0636.8431.120.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0629.4133.930.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6755.940.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0628.5731.260.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.0643.7549.13-0.02-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0561.9063.140.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0552.9452.650.010.00
LamarSlnd0.130.0550.0054.890.000.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0570.5973.150.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0547.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0557.8966.260.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0538.8940.78-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0570.0071.230.030.02
High PointBSth0.000.0543.7549.230.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0550.0054.190.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0516.6716.16-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0527.7827.10-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0051.640.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.0555.0053.320.010.00
VCUA100.000.0560.0059.700.000.01
VirginiaACC0.140.0594.7486.140.120.04
VMISC0.130.0525.0024.15-0.07-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.120.0570.5975.950.050.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0555.5656.740.010.01
Seton HallBE0.130.0575.0067.890.060.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0536.8435.57-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0522.2228.59-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0589.4785.550.050.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.640.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0583.3381.370.040.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0533.3340.08-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.220.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.057.1414.820.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0557.8950.840.010.00
StanfordP120.120.0555.0050.370.010.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0563.1657.890.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.51-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.0525.0028.01-0.06-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.0557.8953.190.020.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0510.0019.630.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0547.3744.270.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0530.0032.520.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.06-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.220.000.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
USCP120.070.0371.4368.280.030.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.020.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0333.3337.23-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.640.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0352.6351.080.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.110.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0325.0028.24-0.03-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0380.9576.520.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0368.4257.740.020.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0338.8943.43-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0378.9569.790.030.01
MarylandB100.060.0370.0065.250.020.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.00
UCLAP120.060.0365.0062.050.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.660.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0365.0054.670.020.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0310.5314.83-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.330.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.990.020.01
WoffordSC0.060.0368.7563.690.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00