Nevada

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	63.3
Current RPI:	70
Expected SOS:	141
Current SOS:	153
Current Record:	17-4
Expected Record:	21-7
Current Conf Record:	8-1
Expected Conf Record:	11-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	26.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC RPI:	84
Expected OOC SOS:	153

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-4	37.7	2.53%
23-5	45.6	13.82%
22-6	55.5	30.94%
21-7	66.9	31.46%
20-8	80.1	16.42%
19-9	94.1	4.37%
18-10	108.6	0.43%
17-11	121.5	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	H	46-68	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	71-67	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Pacific (265.6)	BW	H	78-54	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	60-47	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	80-78	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	N	55-76	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	N	64-59	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Washington (69.1)	P12	H	76-73	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Montana (101.6)	BSky	A	64-70	W	100%	0.0
12-17	UC Riverside (257.6)	BW	H	71-47	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	78-60	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	55-73	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	71-78	W	100%	0.0
1-12	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	81-57	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	H	77-74	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	74-61	W	100%	0.0
1-26	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	60-68	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	A	63-65	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	H	53-52	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	68-72	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	A	0-0		57%	2.1
2-11	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	A	0-0		78%	8.6
2-14	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	H	0-0		89%	13.4
2-18	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.2
2-25	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	0-0		52%	0.5
3-1	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	H	0-0		55%	1.3
3-3	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	0-0		86%	11.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nevada	WAC	26.34	26.29	77.78	75.14	14.64	13.22
Hawaii	WAC	3.03	4.43	60.00	55.57	0.61	0.49
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.87	4.38	72.73	72.21	1.30	1.94
Utah St.	WAC	5.31	4.37	54.55	56.71	0.48	0.59
Fresno St.	WAC	3.14	4.37	40.91	45.97	-0.57	-0.35
San Jose St.	WAC	2.92	4.37	28.57	28.14	-1.25	-1.91
Idaho	WAC	5.24	4.37	47.37	51.16	-0.28	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.86	4.31	45.00	46.15	-0.29	-0.33
Pacific	BW	2.76	2.16	36.84	38.91	-0.73	-0.48
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.44	2.13	47.83	49.29	-0.02	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	2.65	1.97	73.91	75.15	1.27	0.99
Montana	BSky	2.55	1.95	73.68	76.09	1.21	1.02
UC Riverside	BW	2.55	1.91	45.00	41.12	-0.26	-0.34
Portland	WCC	2.54	1.91	22.73	22.51	-1.39	-1.05
Arizona St.	P12	2.48	1.90	31.82	32.52	-0.90	-0.67
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.44	1.88	81.82	80.80	1.55	1.16
Washington	P12	2.48	1.88	72.73	68.83	1.13	0.71
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.49	1.85	36.84	42.30	-0.66	-0.29
Longwood	ind	2.49	1.85	31.58	28.92	-0.92	-0.78
Bradley	MVC	2.43	1.85	25.00	25.69	-1.22	-0.90
Missouri St.	MVC	2.43	1.84	52.17	55.72	0.11	0.21
Iona	MAAC	0.00	1.79	79.17	80.20	0.00	1.08
Seattle	ind	0.42	0.46	23.53	33.28	-0.22	-0.15
Cal Poly	BW	0.33	0.41	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.22	0.35	21.05	22.46	-0.13	-0.19
UC Davis	BW	0.40	0.32	0.00	5.37	-0.40	-0.28
San Francisco	WCC	0.38	0.31	56.52	53.77	0.05	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.32	0.31	55.56	58.01	0.04	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.34	0.29	45.00	41.76	-0.03	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.32	0.27	42.86	41.13	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.21	0.25	31.82	33.83	-0.08	-0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.33	0.25	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.26	0.24	81.82	81.03	0.16	0.15
Long Beach St.	BW	0.29	0.23	71.43	73.35	0.12	0.11
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.22	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.21	0.22	81.82	81.49	0.13	0.14
Santa Clara	WCC	0.27	0.22	28.57	26.30	-0.11	-0.10
Oregon St.	P12	0.28	0.22	63.64	63.16	0.08	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.22	80.00	76.84	0.16	0.12
Oregon	P12	0.26	0.21	69.57	64.53	0.10	0.06
Utah	P12	0.26	0.21	18.18	15.01	-0.16	-0.15
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.21	0.21	85.71	82.18	0.15	0.14
Wichita St.	MVC	0.30	0.21	82.61	80.42	0.19	0.13
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.20	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.29	0.19	40.91	44.03	-0.05	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.19	33.33	33.82	-0.07	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.23	0.19	35.00	35.26	-0.07	-0.06
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.18	66.67	62.65	0.05	0.05
Southern California	P12	0.21	0.18	25.00	25.13	-0.11	-0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.18	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.18	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.07
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.18	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.20	0.18	62.50	62.06	0.05	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.16	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.16	13.64	16.14	-0.12	-0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.88	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.16	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.20	0.16	90.91	87.74	0.16	0.12
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.15	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.15	69.57	68.29	0.08	0.06
California	P12	0.21	0.15	75.00	74.61	0.10	0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.15	76.19	70.73	0.08	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.13	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.13	10.00	14.93	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.13	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.13	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.12	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.12	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.16	0.12	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.12	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.12	21.74	24.58	-0.06	-0.06
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.12	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.19	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.15	0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.12	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.12	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.09	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.15	0.09	75.00	73.97	0.07	0.04
Denver	SB	0.10	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.09	-0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.00	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.09	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.00	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.00	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.00	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.00	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.00	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.00	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.00	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.03	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.00	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.00	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.00	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.00	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.00	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.00	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.00	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01