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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:29.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:111
Current Record:28-6
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-629.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA81-63L0%0.0
11-14Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH79-64W100%0.0
11-18Oregon St. (280.0)P12H83-58W100%0.0
11-20Iona (89.0)MAACH91-76W100%0.0
11-23Oakland (109.0)HorzN82-78W100%0.0
11-25Buffalo (146.0)MACN67-62W100%0.0
11-26Iona (89.0)MAACN75-73L0%0.0
11-29Pacific (223.0)WCCH77-67W100%0.0
12-3Bradley (220.0)MVCA69-91W100%0.0
12-11Washington (211.0)P12A85-87W100%0.0
12-14UC Irvine (135.0)BWH76-69W100%0.0
12-21Towson (88.0)CAAN72-81W100%0.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWN67-66W100%0.0
12-28San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH80-55W100%0.0
12-31Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA77-76L0%0.0
1-4San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH72-69W100%0.0
1-7New Mexico (86.0)MWCA104-105W100%0.0
1-14Wyoming (152.0)MWCA74-89W100%0.0
1-18Air Force (250.0)MWCH83-76W100%0.0
1-21Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH76-81L0%0.0
1-25Boise St. (72.0)MWCA57-76W100%0.0
1-28New Mexico (86.0)MWCH82-65W100%0.0
2-1Utah St. (181.0)MWCA74-57L0%0.0
2-8UNLV (242.0)MWCH104-77W100%0.0
2-12San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA70-56L0%0.0
2-15Air Force (250.0)MWCA59-78W100%0.0
2-18Utah St. (181.0)MWCH77-66W100%0.0
2-22Boise St. (72.0)MWCH85-77W100%0.0
2-25UNLV (242.0)MWCA58-94W100%0.0
3-1San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA67-82W100%0.0
3-4Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH85-72W100%0.0
3-9Utah St. (181.0)MWCN83-69W100%0.0
3-10Fresno St. (76.0)MWCN83-72W100%0.0
3-11Colorado St. (66.0)MWCN79-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC26.4926.4984.4284.4218.2318.23
Fresno St.MWC5.255.2559.2659.260.970.97
Utah St.MWC5.235.2344.4444.44-0.58-0.58
Colorado St.MWC3.943.9470.0070.001.571.57
San Diego St.MWC3.933.9356.6756.670.520.52
Air ForceMWC3.843.8434.4834.48-1.19-1.19
New MexicoMWC3.833.8358.6258.620.660.66
Boise St.MWC3.833.8366.6766.671.281.28
San Jose St.MWC3.833.8346.1546.15-0.29-0.29
UNLVMWC3.793.7936.6736.67-1.01-1.01
IonaMAAC2.992.9965.6265.620.930.93
WyomingMWC2.462.4655.1755.170.250.25
PacificWCC1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
Loyola MarymountWCC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Saint Mary'sWCC1.641.6487.1087.101.221.22
Oregon St.P121.571.5713.3313.33-1.15-1.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.561.5619.2319.23-0.96-0.96
TowsonCAA1.511.5161.2961.290.340.34
WashingtonP121.491.4930.0030.00-0.60-0.60
BradleyMVC1.471.4738.7138.71-0.33-0.33
BuffaloMAC1.471.4751.7251.720.050.05
OaklandHorz1.471.4775.8675.860.760.76
BYUWCC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
GonzagaWCC0.260.2696.9796.970.240.24
PortlandWCC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.240.2484.8584.850.170.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.2183.3383.330.140.14
Cal PolyBW0.200.2031.0331.03-0.07-0.07
UC DavisBW0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
ColoradoP120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
CaliforniaP120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
DrakeMVC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1713.3313.33-0.13-0.13
USCP120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
UCLAP120.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Weber St.BSky0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
LamarSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0732.0032.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01