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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:148.5
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:342
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-524.50.04%
20-637.50.34%
19-746.81.01%
18-861.02.36%
17-975.84.83%
16-1093.78.88%
15-11113.213.71%
14-12134.116.42%
13-13155.017.14%
12-14177.014.79%
11-15198.09.86%
10-16219.96.11%
9-17238.32.82%
8-18262.01.12%
7-19279.00.44%
6-20295.80.11%
5-21296.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Cal Poly (225.1)BWH65-49W100%0.0
11-21Seton Hall (87.3)BEN0-035%-4.7
11-29Nebraska Omaha (275.9)SumA0-064%4.4
12-3Long Beach St. (115.9)BWA0-038%-3.7
12-7California (24.9)P12H0-025%-8.2
12-13Cal St. Fullerton (260.4)BWH0-080%10.0
12-18Pacific (226.7)WCCA0-059%2.6
12-22Marshall (208.0)CUSAH0-077%8.9
1-3Air Force (200.2)MWCH0-071%6.6
1-7UNLV (94.4)MWCA0-031%-6.0
1-10Fresno St. (214.8)MWCH0-075%8.0
1-14Colorado St. (66.8)MWCA0-027%-7.5
1-20Utah St. (104.7)MWCH0-056%1.7
1-24Fresno St. (214.8)MWCA0-053%0.8
1-27UNLV (94.4)MWCH0-054%1.2
1-31Wyoming (135.5)MWCA0-036%-4.2
2-4San Diego St. (25.6)MWCH0-029%-6.8
2-7San Jose St. (296.4)MWCA0-070%6.3
2-10Utah St. (104.7)MWCA0-033%-5.4
2-14New Mexico (95.9)MWCH0-050%0.0
2-17Wyoming (135.5)MWCH0-060%3.0
2-21Boise St. (58.9)MWCA0-024%-8.6
2-25Air Force (200.2)MWCA0-048%-0.6
2-28San Jose St. (296.4)MWCH0-087%13.4
3-4Colorado St. (66.8)MWCH0-049%-0.3
3-7San Diego St. (25.6)MWCA0-012%-14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC50.0026.45100.0050.8450.000.45
Fresno St.MWC0.004.920.0031.72-0.00-1.80
WyomingMWC0.004.88100.0055.540.000.54
San Jose St.MWC0.004.870.0019.33-0.00-2.99
San Diego St.MWC0.004.85100.0080.070.002.91
Air ForceMWC0.004.8450.0045.110.00-0.47
Colorado St.MWC0.004.82100.0062.280.001.18
Utah St.MWC0.004.82100.0064.270.001.38
UNLVMWC0.004.82100.0057.040.000.68
New MexicoMWC0.003.0666.6761.660.000.71
Boise St.MWC0.003.03100.0065.280.000.93
Cal St. FullertonBW0.002.170.0040.09-0.00-0.43
Cal PolyBW50.002.160.0036.14-50.00-0.60
Long Beach St.BW0.002.130.0045.94-0.00-0.17
CaliforniaP120.002.10100.0078.250.001.19
Nebraska OmahaSum0.001.9950.0035.720.00-0.57
PacificWCC0.001.9950.0029.760.00-0.81
MarshallCUSA0.001.92100.0042.450.00-0.29
Seton HallBE0.001.92100.0055.410.000.21
UC DavisBW0.000.42100.0043.520.00-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.3250.0064.340.000.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2950.0047.360.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2833.3345.60-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.280.0028.57-0.00-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.000.26100.0050.890.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.25100.0068.310.000.09
WashingtonP120.000.25100.0056.080.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.240.0030.93-0.00-0.09
ColoradoP120.000.24100.0068.310.000.09
PortlandWCC0.000.22100.0049.930.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.2166.6748.810.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.210.0055.17-0.000.02
DenverSum0.000.2050.0062.850.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2033.3364.95-0.000.06
USCP120.000.2033.3326.65-0.00-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.000.1866.6749.560.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.170.0047.69-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1750.0063.450.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.15100.0071.430.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.1450.0045.040.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1450.0053.850.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.140.0033.58-0.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.140.0032.60-0.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.000.140.0049.48-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.130.0035.01-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.130.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.130.0023.81-0.00-0.07
UCLAP120.000.13100.0064.410.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0070.580.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.13100.0061.570.000.03
StanfordP120.000.13100.0059.450.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0087.640.000.09
San FranciscoWCC0.000.11100.0060.870.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1133.3328.73-0.00-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0033.91-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.11100.0063.800.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.100.0027.60-0.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1050.0054.560.000.01
MercerSC0.000.1050.0053.990.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.10100.0053.570.000.01
XavierBE0.000.10100.0070.050.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0072.220.000.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0024.28-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.10100.0044.790.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.100.0058.61-0.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0056.380.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0733.3334.62-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0058.890.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.340.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0021.31-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3351.93-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0027.81-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0036.23-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0057.160.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0021.38-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0065.830.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.970.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0039.730.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0065.390.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0060.93-0.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3328.81-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0060.010.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.07100.0056.370.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.070.0058.38-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0750.0055.890.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.07100.0062.990.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0068.630.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.07100.0077.610.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.630.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0081.830.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0064.020.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.07100.0066.730.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.35-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0035.31-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.070.0051.35-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0750.0060.040.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0036.790.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.07100.0070.930.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.070.0060.94-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0733.3369.45-0.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0044.87-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0043.010.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0059.82-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0750.0046.460.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.040.0042.76-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.04100.0068.990.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.05-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.230.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0026.57-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0071.490.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0350.0054.530.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0333.3350.61-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.210.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.03100.0051.730.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0022.72-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.90-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.780.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.150.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.72-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.020.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0066.74-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.940.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.510.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0350.0052.080.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.320.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0045.27-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0067.190.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0049.27-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.550.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.970.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.10-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.410.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.19-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.460.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.060.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0053.110.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.29-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0044.490.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3350.49-0.000.00