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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:118.0
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:140
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13118.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthN56-73W100%0.0
11-15Montana St. (260.0)BSkyN83-62W100%0.0
11-16Hawaii (80.0)BWA76-75L0%0.0
11-21Pacific (268.0)WCCA82-85W100%0.0
11-25Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH76-73W100%0.0
11-28Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA75-66L0%0.0
12-5Oregon St. (33.0)P12A66-62L0%0.0
12-12Drake (325.0)MVCH79-71W100%0.0
12-18Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH72-69W100%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA98-69L0%0.0
12-30New Mexico (141.0)MWCA88-76L0%0.0
1-2Wyoming (187.0)MWCH71-68W100%0.0
1-6Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA85-63L0%0.0
1-9Air Force (226.0)MWCA63-86W100%0.0
1-13Boise St. (101.0)MWCH67-74L0%0.0
1-20Wyoming (187.0)MWCA69-75W100%0.0
1-23UNLV (147.0)MWCH65-63W100%0.0
1-26San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH54-57L0%0.0
1-30Utah St. (151.0)MWCA84-89W100%0.0
2-6Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA76-67L0%0.0
2-10Air Force (226.0)MWCH72-52W100%0.0
2-13Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH77-72W100%0.0
2-17San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA55-61W100%0.0
2-20UNLV (147.0)MWCA102-91L0%0.0
2-24Utah St. (151.0)MWCH73-68W100%0.0
2-28Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH87-80W100%0.0
3-2Boise St. (101.0)MWCA76-57L0%0.0
3-5New Mexico (141.0)MWCH66-71L0%0.0
3-10New Mexico (141.0)MWCN62-64W100%0.0
3-11San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN67-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC26.4226.4259.2359.234.884.88
New MexicoMWC5.825.8251.7251.720.200.20
Fresno St.MWC4.404.4073.3373.332.052.05
San Diego St.MWC4.374.3770.0070.001.751.75
UNLVMWC4.364.3651.7251.720.150.15
Colorado St.MWC4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC4.304.3051.8551.850.160.16
WyomingMWC4.284.2842.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Air ForceMWC4.254.2542.8642.86-0.61-0.61
Boise St.MWC4.254.2557.1457.140.610.61
San Jose St.MWC2.772.7722.2222.22-1.54-1.54
Montana St.BSky1.921.9244.8344.83-0.20-0.20
Cal St. FullertonBW1.841.8425.9325.93-0.89-0.89
HawaiiBW1.821.8282.7682.761.191.19
PacificWCC1.801.8024.0024.00-0.94-0.94
Wichita St.MVC1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
Santa ClaraWCC1.761.7634.4834.48-0.55-0.55
Portland St.BSky1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
DrakeMVC1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
Oregon St.P121.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Loyola MarymountWCC0.310.3143.3343.33-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.300.3075.7675.760.160.16
New Mexico St.WAC0.290.2967.7467.740.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.290.2963.6463.640.080.08
UC IrvineBW0.290.2971.8871.880.130.13
PortlandWCC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
BYUWCC0.280.2868.7568.750.110.11
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
UC DavisBW0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
OregonP120.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
MontanaBSky0.200.2062.0762.070.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.190.1969.7069.700.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
BradleyMVC0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
ColoradoP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
USCP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
RiceCUSA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
DenverSum0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
Washington St.P120.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01