live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:137.0
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17137.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Pacific (133.0)WCCH78-80L0%0.0
11-12Cal Poly (208.0)BWA58-60W100%0.0
11-15San Francisco (68.0)WCCA90-92W100%0.0
11-18Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA74-66L0%0.0
11-22Chattanooga (243.0)SCH83-81W100%0.0
11-24Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH58-63L0%0.0
11-28UCLA (14.0)P12N84-105L0%0.0
11-29Missouri (49.0)SECN70-83L0%0.0
12-7UC Davis (326.0)BWA81-87W100%0.0
12-10California (63.0)P12A92-84L0%0.0
12-14Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH80-82L0%0.0
12-22Iona (59.0)MAACH80-72W100%0.0
12-28Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH77-80L0%0.0
1-1San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA50-62W100%0.0
1-4Wyoming (135.0)MWCH61-58W100%0.0
1-8UNLV (108.0)MWCA71-74W100%0.0
1-11Utah St. (116.0)MWCH62-54W100%0.0
1-14Boise St. (82.0)MWCH65-74L0%0.0
1-22Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA86-96W100%0.0
1-25Wyoming (135.0)MWCA64-62L0%0.0
1-29Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH76-67W100%0.0
2-1Air Force (251.0)MWCH69-56W100%0.0
2-5Utah St. (116.0)MWCA83-75L0%0.0
2-8San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA73-58L0%0.0
2-12Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH67-75L0%0.0
2-15New Mexico (12.0)MWCA90-72L0%0.0
2-18San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH64-66L0%0.0
2-22Air Force (251.0)MWCA56-75W100%0.0
3-2New Mexico (12.0)MWCH58-72L0%0.0
3-5Boise St. (82.0)MWCA81-83W100%0.0
3-8UNLV (108.0)MWCH76-72W100%0.0
3-13Boise St. (82.0)MWCN62-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC26.3226.3246.3946.39-1.90-1.90
Boise St.MWC5.535.5358.6258.620.950.95
Fresno St.MWC4.104.1048.2848.28-0.14-0.14
New MexicoMWC4.044.0480.6580.652.472.47
UNLVMWC3.993.9964.5264.521.161.16
San Jose St.MWC3.963.9614.8114.81-2.79-2.79
Utah St.MWC3.963.9655.1755.170.410.41
WyomingMWC3.963.9653.5753.570.280.28
Air ForceMWC3.963.9638.4638.46-0.91-0.91
San Diego St.MWC2.572.5786.6786.671.881.88
Colorado St.MWC2.452.4548.2848.28-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
Cal PolyBW1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
PacificWCC1.741.7446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Long Beach St.BW1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
UCLAP121.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
CaliforniaP121.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Nebraska OmahaSum1.641.6446.1546.15-0.13-0.13
San FranciscoWCC1.621.6265.5265.520.500.50
Morehead St.OVC1.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
MissouriSEC1.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
ChattanoogaSC1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
IonaMAAC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.380.3867.8667.860.140.14
UC IrvineBW0.290.2965.6265.620.090.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.290.2938.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.280.2862.0762.070.070.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
ColoradoP120.230.2367.6567.650.080.08
UtahP120.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
ArizonaP120.220.2288.2488.240.170.17
San DiegoWCC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USCP120.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
PortlandWCC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
SeattleWAC0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
OregonP120.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
StanfordP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
DenverSum0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
IdahoWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.150.153.573.57-0.14-0.14
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01