Nevada

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	17.0
Current RPI:	17
Expected SOS:	61
Current SOS:	61
Current Record:	27-7
Expected Record:	27-7
Current Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC RPI:	10
Expected OOC SOS:	18

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-7	17.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	88-64	W	100%
11-13	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	H	88-81	W	100%
11-15	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	63-93	W	100%
11-18	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	74-89	W	100%
11-21	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	81-68	W	100%
11-24	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	54-67	W	100%
11-29	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	98-68	W	100%
12-2	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	65-76	W	100%
12-5	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	82-76	L	0%
12-8	TCU (26.0)	B12	N	84-80	L	0%
12-17	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	77-62	W	100%
12-19	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	88-73	W	100%
12-22	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	N	86-64	W	100%
12-23	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	N	64-66	L	0%
12-27	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	65-80	W	100%
12-30	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	77-74	W	100%
1-3	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	92-83	W	100%
1-6	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	75-86	W	100%
1-13	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	83-57	W	100%
1-17	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	54-71	W	100%
1-20	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	74-68	W	100%
1-24	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	104-103	L	0%
1-31	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	102-92	W	100%
2-3	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	67-76	W	100%
2-7	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	78-86	L	0%
2-10	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	83-58	W	100%
2-14	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	72-77	W	100%
2-17	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	87-93	W	100%
2-21	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	80-67	W	100%
2-25	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	92-83	W	100%
2-28	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	75-101	W	100%
3-3	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	79-74	L	0%
3-8	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	74-79	W	100%
3-9	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	N	73-90	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nevada	MWC	26.37	26.37	80.86	80.86	16.28	16.28
San Diego St.	MWC	5.22	5.22	67.86	67.86	1.86	1.86
UNLV	MWC	5.18	5.18	63.33	63.33	1.38	1.38
Utah St.	MWC	3.82	3.82	51.61	51.61	0.12	0.12
Wyoming	MWC	3.80	3.80	60.00	60.00	0.76	0.76
San Jose St.	MWC	3.78	3.78	11.11	11.11	-2.94	-2.94
Fresno St.	MWC	3.76	3.76	67.86	67.86	1.34	1.34
Boise St.	MWC	3.76	3.76	78.57	78.57	2.15	2.15
Colorado St.	MWC	3.72	3.72	34.48	34.48	-1.16	-1.16
New Mexico	MWC	2.48	2.48	56.25	56.25	0.31	0.31
Air Force	MWC	2.41	2.41	35.71	35.71	-0.69	-0.69
Pacific	WCC	1.78	1.78	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
UC Irvine	BW	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	1.66	1.66	68.97	68.97	0.63	0.63
Santa Clara	WCC	1.64	1.64	35.71	35.71	-0.47	-0.47
San Francisco	WCC	1.64	1.64	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Hawaii	BW	1.61	1.61	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.59	1.59	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Illinois St.	MVC	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Davidson	A10	1.57	1.57	67.74	67.74	0.56	0.56
Rhode Island	A10	1.54	1.54	80.65	80.65	0.94	0.94
TCU	B12	1.54	1.54	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
Idaho	BSky	1.52	1.52	71.43	71.43	0.65	0.65
Radford	BSth	1.52	1.52	64.52	64.52	0.44	0.44
Texas Tech	B12	1.52	1.52	71.88	71.88	0.66	0.66
Gonzaga	WCC	0.28	0.28	88.24	88.24	0.22	0.22
San Diego	WCC	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	16.67	16.67	-0.18	-0.18
Long Beach St.	BW	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Utah	BSky	0.24	0.24	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.22	0.22	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	84.85	84.85	0.15	0.15
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
BYU	WCC	0.21	0.21	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.20	14.29	14.29	-0.14	-0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.19	0.19	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	16.13	16.13	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.16	0.16	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Evansville	MVC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.04	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00