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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:285.2
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:173
Current Record:1-7
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:332
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14156.00.01%
13-15171.10.09%
12-16194.30.49%
11-17215.81.76%
10-18234.14.93%
9-19254.211.70%
8-20272.117.73%
7-21287.921.78%
6-22300.719.80%
5-23311.213.07%
4-24320.26.08%
3-25326.72.03%
2-26332.70.50%
1-27338.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Cal Poly (236.0)BWH65-49W100%0.0
11-21Seton Hall (46.8)BEN60-68L0%0.0
11-22Clemson (162.8)ACCN50-59L0%0.0
11-24Weber St. (245.3)BSkyN59-56L0%0.0
11-29Nebraska Omaha (200.9)SumA78-54L0%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (90.0)BWA68-57L0%0.0
12-7California (57.4)P12H56-63L0%0.0
12-13Cal St. Fullerton (264.2)BWH55-65L0%0.0
12-18Pacific (203.2)WCCA0-024%-8.3
12-22Marshall (215.1)CUSAH0-049%-0.2
1-3Air Force (110.1)MWCH0-029%-6.6
1-7UNLV (133.0)MWCA0-019%-10.2
1-10Fresno St. (261.2)MWCH0-063%3.8
1-14Colorado St. (32.7)MWCA0-06%-18.6
1-20Utah St. (163.5)MWCH0-042%-2.5
1-24Fresno St. (261.2)MWCA0-034%-5.0
1-27UNLV (133.0)MWCH0-045%-1.4
1-31Wyoming (72.9)MWCA0-06%-17.9
2-4San Diego St. (34.7)MWCH0-017%-11.2
2-7San Jose St. (327.4)MWCA0-061%3.3
2-10Utah St. (163.5)MWCA0-017%-11.2
2-14New Mexico (110.1)MWCH0-032%-5.5
2-17Wyoming (72.9)MWCH0-022%-9.1
2-21Boise St. (62.3)MWCA0-08%-16.7
2-25Air Force (110.1)MWCA0-010%-15.4
2-28San Jose St. (327.4)MWCH0-085%12.1
3-4Colorado St. (32.7)MWCH0-020%-9.8
3-7San Diego St. (34.7)MWCA0-05%-20.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nevada's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nevada.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NevadaMWC27.8426.367.8921.92-23.45-14.80
Fresno St.MWC0.764.5330.0027.83-0.30-2.01
San Jose St.MWC0.284.500.006.39-0.28-3.92
WyomingMWC0.314.4977.7872.150.171.99
Colorado St.MWC0.004.47100.0077.330.002.45
Utah St.MWC0.454.4750.0051.810.000.16
San Diego St.MWC0.314.4770.0071.600.121.93
Air ForceMWC0.354.4657.1459.710.050.87
UNLVMWC0.004.4475.0049.560.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.282.8070.0058.110.110.45
Boise St.MWC0.002.7775.0067.640.000.98
Cal St. FullertonBW6.252.0130.0036.70-2.50-0.53
Cal PolyBW6.562.0050.0039.540.00-0.42
Long Beach St.BW6.251.9833.3348.26-2.08-0.07
CaliforniaP126.701.9488.8965.355.210.60
PacificWCC0.001.9142.8636.88-0.00-0.50
Nebraska OmahaSum6.251.8537.5053.68-1.560.14
Weber St.BSky6.251.8516.6740.02-4.17-0.37
ClemsonACC6.251.7962.5043.511.56-0.23
MarshallCUSA0.001.7925.0037.80-0.00-0.44
Seton HallBE6.251.7987.5062.284.690.44
UC DavisBW0.000.3885.7161.530.000.09
UC IrvineBW0.000.2837.5046.91-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.280.2650.0041.530.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.760.2566.6767.780.250.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2520.0028.69-0.00-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.000.2542.8643.73-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2537.5064.54-0.000.07
WashingtonP120.310.24100.0072.030.310.11
PepperdineWCC0.280.2275.0058.890.140.04
ColoradoP120.000.2266.6757.580.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2111.1129.64-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1916.6733.24-0.00-0.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1966.6754.090.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.1966.6748.960.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.1925.0027.83-0.00-0.08
MontanaBSky0.310.1925.0051.40-0.160.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.1928.5756.75-0.150.03
DenverSum0.000.1850.0053.980.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1836.3664.92-0.000.05
USCP120.280.1860.0037.230.06-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.18100.0080.830.000.11
San DiegoWCC0.000.1654.5557.610.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1616.6727.11-0.00-0.07
UtahP120.000.1577.7879.670.000.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.1371.4357.420.190.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1340.0050.48-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.1388.8955.730.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.310.1362.5055.120.080.01
SeattleWAC0.350.1337.5046.46-0.09-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1357.1454.700.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.790.1266.6764.900.260.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1220.0039.57-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.350.1237.5041.84-0.09-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.1240.0029.07-0.00-0.05
XavierBE0.620.1280.0071.020.380.05
UCLAP120.600.1272.7357.410.270.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0054.270.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1275.0058.750.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.1090.0091.070.000.08
San FranciscoWCC0.450.1044.4449.01-0.05-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.1057.1456.730.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1037.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1025.0023.97-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1055.5638.460.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.450.1044.4444.76-0.05-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1037.5031.79-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6776.500.000.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0933.3340.60-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.310.0927.2737.77-0.14-0.02
FIUCUSA0.280.0950.0054.660.000.01
MarquetteBE0.350.0955.5647.640.04-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.060.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.350.090.0012.28-0.35-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.210.000.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0918.1846.19-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0966.6772.280.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.270.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0987.5064.520.000.03
SyracuseACC0.310.0966.6757.600.100.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0038.33-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0777.7868.810.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.008.81-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.0716.6730.49-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.64-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.0642.8641.92-0.04-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.480.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.18-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.790.0677.7862.380.440.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.350.060.0017.71-0.35-0.04
Kansas St.B120.660.0660.0037.340.13-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.660.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.59-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.220.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.78-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.320.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.120.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.340.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.38-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1128.93-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5648.830.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.430.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.85-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.94-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.470.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8650.31-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.420.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6738.970.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.400.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.690.0637.5050.07-0.170.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.320.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.700.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.090.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.540.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.12-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.750.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.880.000.00
RutgersB100.690.0660.0034.930.14-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0053.790.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.310.000.04
TexasB120.310.0690.0081.760.250.04
DelawareCAA0.450.030.008.74-0.45-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.450.0366.6757.570.150.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.330.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1447.960.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.450.0355.5654.760.050.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.82-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0012.02-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4348.780.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.350.0366.6743.830.12-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.350.0322.2242.15-0.19-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.780.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.72-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.99-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6725.04-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.98-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.540.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.71-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.24-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.280.0360.0064.580.060.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.760.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.280.0355.5653.800.030.00
ArkansasSEC0.350.0377.7871.830.190.01
AuburnSEC0.350.0344.4435.62-0.04-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.350.0366.6766.690.120.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.460.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.350.0362.5056.250.090.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3345.26-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.17-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.760.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.350.0337.5038.03-0.09-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.470.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0032.16-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.75-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.350.0336.3647.27-0.09-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0350.0048.630.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.0366.6777.710.100.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.840.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.100.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.350.0387.5085.210.260.02
WinthropBSth0.350.0328.5747.18-0.15-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.030.0028.64-0.31-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.0336.3633.75-0.09-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6759.200.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0049.720.00-0.00