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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:86
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1586.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cal Poly (305.0)BWH78-62W100%0.0
11-12Pacific (190.0)WCCH89-80W100%0.0
11-14Eastern Washington (122.0)BSkyH61-67L0%0.0
11-17Northeastern (55.0)CAAH73-59W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina (4.0)ACCH72-96L0%0.0
11-23Florida (46.0)SECN87-108L0%0.0
11-24Ohio St. (20.0)B10N79-71L0%0.0
11-26Portland St. (170.0)BSkyN87-78L0%0.0
11-29Montana (76.0)BSkyH70-54W100%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (191.0)BWA76-68L0%0.0
12-15Denver (224.0)SumH75-62W100%0.0
12-17San Francisco (139.0)WCCH71-59W100%0.0
12-21Kansas (5.0)B12N54-75L0%0.0
12-30California (216.0)P12H74-77L0%0.0
1-4UCLA (36.0)P12H107-99W100%0.0
1-7USC (34.0)P12H77-76W100%0.0
1-11Washington St. (179.0)P12A70-79W100%0.0
1-13Washington (71.0)P12A64-73W100%0.0
1-17Arizona St. (66.0)P12H86-77W100%0.0
1-20Arizona (13.0)P12H71-73L0%0.0
1-24USC (34.0)P12A69-64L0%0.0
1-27UCLA (36.0)P12A89-73L0%0.0
2-1Oregon St. (137.0)P12H80-71W100%0.0
2-3Oregon (72.0)P12H96-61W100%0.0
2-8Utah (59.0)P12A75-60L0%0.0
2-11Colorado (82.0)P12A64-56L0%0.0
2-18California (216.0)P12A73-77W100%0.0
2-22Washington (71.0)P12H94-78W100%0.0
2-24Washington St. (179.0)P12H86-84W100%0.0
3-1Arizona (13.0)P12A75-67L0%0.0
3-3Arizona St. (66.0)P12A83-84W100%0.0
3-7California (216.0)P12N76-58W100%0.0
3-8UCLA (36.0)P12N88-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.3126.3150.3550.350.180.18
CaliforniaP125.305.3025.0025.00-2.65-2.65
UCLAP125.215.2165.5265.521.621.62
ArizonaP123.843.8478.1278.122.162.16
USCP123.793.7968.7568.751.421.42
WashingtonP123.773.7766.6766.671.261.26
Arizona St.P123.763.7668.9768.971.431.43
Washington St.P123.693.6941.3841.38-0.64-0.64
OregonP122.442.4466.6766.670.810.81
Oregon St.P122.432.4351.6151.610.080.08
ColoradoP122.422.4251.6151.610.080.08
UtahP122.342.3462.0762.070.560.56
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
Portland St.BSky1.731.7355.1755.170.180.18
San FranciscoWCC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Long Beach St.BW1.681.6840.0040.00-0.34-0.34
MontanaBSky1.661.6680.0080.001.001.00
Cal PolyBW1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
PacificWCC1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
KansasB121.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Ohio St.B101.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
DenverSum1.541.5448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC1.541.5470.5970.590.630.63
NortheasternCAA1.541.5470.9770.970.650.65
FloridaSEC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
UC IrvineBW0.270.2748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.270.2766.6766.670.090.09
UC RiversideBW0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2214.2914.29-0.16-0.16
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2270.0070.000.090.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2284.8584.850.150.15
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
GonzagaWCC0.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
IdahoBSky0.200.2068.9768.970.070.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2016.6716.67-0.13-0.13
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Kansas St.B120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
North DakotaBSky0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
MichiganB100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
BYUWCC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
OklahomaB120.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
WyomingMWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
CreightonBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
AkronMAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
TCUB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
UMBCAE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Notre DameACC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0493.9493.940.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01