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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:36.8
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:75
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-23.00.01%
26-34.20.21%
25-45.70.76%
24-58.42.63%
23-611.86.37%
22-716.611.06%
21-822.916.62%
20-930.718.79%
19-1040.216.29%
18-1152.513.16%
17-1266.27.74%
16-1381.43.78%
15-1498.91.83%
14-15118.40.58%
13-16129.30.15%
12-17155.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wofford (71.2)SCH74-59W100%0.0
11-16South Dakota (271.4)SumH84-73W100%0.0
11-21UNLV (148.0)MWCN60-89W100%0.0
11-25Delaware (269.3)CAAH0-096%21.2
11-30DePaul (180.2)BEA0-074%7.7
12-13Denver (135.7)SumH0-086%12.8
12-17Loyola Marymount (222.2)WCCH0-094%18.9
12-20BYU (33.4)WCCA0-042%-2.3
12-23Texas (3.9)B12A0-016%-11.8
12-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.0)SWACH0-099%26.6
1-2Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-094%18.2
1-4Washington (98.0)P12H0-077%8.8
1-8UCLA (55.7)P12A0-043%-2.1
1-11USC (224.1)P12A0-084%11.9
1-14California (32.2)P12A0-033%-5.3
1-17Connecticut (16.2)AmerH0-056%1.7
1-22Arizona (25.1)P12H0-058%2.5
1-24Arizona St. (72.2)P12H0-072%6.9
1-28Washington (98.0)P12A0-055%1.6
1-31Washington St. (220.6)P12A0-082%11.0
2-5UCLA (55.7)P12H0-066%5.0
2-8USC (224.1)P12H0-094%19.1
2-12Utah (31.4)P12A0-033%-5.3
2-15Colorado (47.7)P12A0-040%-3.0
2-21California (32.2)P12H0-056%1.8
2-26Oregon St. (158.5)P12H0-084%12.1
3-1Oregon (39.3)P12H0-062%3.7
3-5Arizona St. (72.2)P12A0-049%-0.3
3-7Arizona (25.1)P12A0-035%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1233.3326.28100.0068.0633.339.49
CaliforniaP120.004.3275.0074.460.002.11
Arizona St.P120.004.22100.0059.770.000.83
USCP120.004.1950.0027.880.00-1.85
ArizonaP120.004.19100.0070.110.001.68
UCLAP120.004.16100.0063.070.001.09
WashingtonP120.004.16100.0058.190.000.68
Washington St.P120.004.1633.3328.19-0.00-1.81
UtahP120.002.6866.6770.480.001.10
ColoradoP120.002.65100.0068.740.000.99
Oregon St.P120.002.65100.0051.350.000.07
OregonP120.002.62100.0071.860.001.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.9033.3328.88-0.00-0.80
UNLVMWC16.671.90100.0047.8016.67-0.08
South DakotaSum16.671.840.0038.15-16.67-0.44
BYUWCC0.001.82100.0069.740.000.72
TexasB120.001.81100.0084.140.001.24
DePaulBE0.001.79100.0038.220.00-0.42
DenverSum0.001.7850.0064.160.000.51
WoffordSC16.671.75100.0077.6616.670.97
ConnecticutAmer0.001.75100.0076.510.000.93
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.7225.0034.33-0.00-0.54
DelawareCAA0.001.720.0034.67-0.00-0.53
GonzagaWCC0.000.31100.0086.950.000.23
PacificWCC0.000.1950.0029.930.00-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1950.0047.150.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.19100.0050.390.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1866.6748.270.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.18100.0051.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.180.0020.69-0.00-0.11
San Diego St.MWC0.000.18100.0082.150.000.12
OklahomaB120.000.1850.0059.230.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.18100.0056.150.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.16100.0061.810.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.16100.0070.600.000.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.0023.71-0.00-0.08
DrexelCAA0.000.150.0034.27-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1533.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.15100.0064.330.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1533.3349.18-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1533.3347.78-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.140.0033.60-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0040.22-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0054.32-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0062.910.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0027.23-0.00-0.06
TulaneAmer0.000.1250.0033.930.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.12100.0069.630.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0045.330.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.120.0038.57-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1233.3344.98-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.1250.0065.390.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1233.3330.78-0.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1250.0035.570.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.1275.0062.010.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0034.57-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1233.3352.91-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.12100.0061.420.000.03
TCUB120.000.12100.0054.240.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0054.250.000.01
KansasB120.000.1250.0060.200.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1250.0052.120.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.09100.0065.850.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0028.50-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.840.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0925.0057.21-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0031.68-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0055.810.000.01
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0024.76-0.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd5.560.0950.0061.070.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0966.6760.730.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC2.780.0950.0044.430.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0067.360.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0950.0045.610.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0057.810.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0051.300.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.85-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.580.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.080.000.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0062.15-0.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0027.18-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0055.45-0.000.01
LehighPat0.000.090.0035.69-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0053.870.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0950.0038.240.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0032.99-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.090.0049.81-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.580.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0850.0043.560.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.100.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.220.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.91-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0043.140.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.690.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0054.47-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0062.16-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.380.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC2.780.0633.3334.47-0.93-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0025.820.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.31-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3332.57-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.95-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.03-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.060.0037.20-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0041.45-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.43-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.83-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3349.73-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0070.210.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.110.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.24-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0055.60-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.960.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0035.33-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0058.280.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0028.82-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0036.810.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
IonaMAAC2.780.0366.6766.940.930.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0041.040.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Morehead St.OVC2.780.030.0054.04-2.780.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.21-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.610.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0350.0057.440.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6752.470.000.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0051.62-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00