Stanford

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	89.9
Current RPI:	96
Expected SOS:	137
Current SOS:	138
Current Record:	16-7
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	6-5
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	11.25%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	89
Expected OOC SOS:	243

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	57.6	3.21%
22-8	69.4	16.63%
21-9	83.0	30.14%
20-10	96.4	30.66%
19-11	109.6	14.77%
18-12	124.3	4.05%
17-13	139.0	0.52%
16-14	152.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	H	91-52	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	75-59	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	64-52	W	100%	0.0
11-18	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	A	49-70	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	N	82-67	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Syracuse (2.1)	BE	N	69-63	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Pacific (265.6)	BW	H	79-37	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	49-72	W	100%	0.0
12-4	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	H	76-72	W	100%	0.0
12-17	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	H	75-55	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	75-56	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	66-71	L	0%	0.0
12-29	UCLA (109.2)	P12	H	60-59	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Southern California (232.8)	P12	H	51-43	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	78-67	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	101-103	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Utah (272.4)	P12	H	68-65	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	84-64	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	A	81-69	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	76-63	L	0%	0.0
1-29	California (42.4)	P12	A	69-59	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	68-44	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	43-56	L	0%	0.0
2-9	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	0-0		41%	-2.5
2-12	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	0-0		74%	7.1
2-16	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	H	0-0		66%	4.6
2-19	Oregon (86.8)	P12	H	0-0		76%	7.8
2-23	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	0-0		48%	-0.6
2-25	Utah (272.4)	P12	A	0-0		95%	17.7
3-4	California (42.4)	P12	H	0-0		48%	-0.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stanford	P12	26.15	26.25	66.67	66.66	8.72	8.75
California	P12	2.66	4.12	73.91	74.53	1.27	2.02
Colorado	P12	2.75	4.11	70.00	65.46	1.10	1.27
Oregon	P12	2.70	4.09	68.18	64.72	0.98	1.21
Utah	P12	2.70	4.09	19.05	15.93	-1.67	-2.79
Oregon St.	P12	2.65	4.06	66.67	66.59	0.88	1.35
UCLA	P12	2.70	4.03	57.14	58.74	0.39	0.70
Southern California	P12	2.66	4.00	26.09	25.98	-1.27	-1.92
Washington	P12	2.72	2.48	68.18	65.38	0.99	0.76
Arizona St.	P12	2.70	2.48	31.82	32.52	-0.98	-0.87
Arizona	P12	2.66	2.45	65.22	67.51	0.81	0.86
Washington St.	P12	2.65	2.45	47.62	46.31	-0.13	-0.18
Fresno St.	WAC	2.42	1.93	40.91	46.06	-0.44	-0.15
UC Davis	BW	2.28	1.82	0.00	5.56	-2.28	-1.62
Pacific	BW	2.27	1.75	36.84	38.91	-0.60	-0.39
Seattle	ind	2.22	1.75	25.00	34.73	-1.11	-0.53
Colorado St.	MWC	2.23	1.73	70.00	63.05	0.89	0.45
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.22	1.69	73.91	66.57	1.06	0.56
Syracuse	BE	2.22	1.69	95.65	91.74	2.03	1.41
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.17	1.67	40.00	44.31	-0.43	-0.19
Butler	Horz	2.17	1.67	47.83	49.11	-0.09	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.17	1.67	29.41	31.07	-0.90	-0.63
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.17	1.67	47.62	42.11	-0.10	-0.26
San Diego	WCC	2.17	1.67	35.00	35.12	-0.65	-0.50
UC Irvine	BW	0.42	0.29	35.00	35.26	-0.13	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.29	0.25	85.71	78.05	0.21	0.14
Idaho	WAC	0.31	0.24	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.23	55.56	58.01	0.03	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.23	21.05	22.46	-0.12	-0.13
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.21	0.21	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.20	0.21	31.82	33.83	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.26	0.20	40.91	44.03	-0.05	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.31	0.20	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.20	82.61	81.44	0.13	0.13
New Mexico	MWC	0.24	0.20	81.82	81.03	0.15	0.12
Texas	B12	0.19	0.20	60.87	61.37	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.18	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.18	65.00	66.70	0.05	0.06
Portland	WCC	0.20	0.18	21.74	21.70	-0.11	-0.10
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.17	75.00	76.00	0.10	0.09
San Jose St.	WAC	0.21	0.17	27.27	26.95	-0.09	-0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.20	0.17	42.86	41.13	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.17	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.16	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.09
Utah St.	WAC	0.28	0.16	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.21	0.15	57.14	53.12	0.03	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.15	81.82	81.49	0.12	0.09
Nevada	WAC	0.20	0.14	80.95	76.42	0.12	0.08
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.14	0.14	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.13	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.21	0.12	28.57	26.30	-0.09	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.12	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.12	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.12	76.19	70.73	0.05	0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.12	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.12	70.00	73.28	0.06	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.15	0.12	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.12	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.16	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.10	0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.11	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.11	30.00	30.06	-0.04	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.11	80.00	76.84	0.06	0.06
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.11	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.11	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.19	0.10	37.50	38.33	-0.05	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.13	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.16	0.09	30.00	33.20	-0.06	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.06	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.09	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.09	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.09	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.09	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.09	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.08	68.00	69.07	0.05	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.08	68.18	67.64	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.08	90.91	83.85	0.12	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.08	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.10	0.08	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.08	13.64	16.14	-0.07	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.08	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.07	0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.06	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.08	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.05	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.05	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.05	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.05	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.05	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.04
Providence	BE	0.09	0.05	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.06	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01