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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:46
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1359.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wofford (47.0)SCH74-59W100%0.0
11-16South Dakota (213.0)SumH84-73W100%0.0
11-21UNLV (114.0)MWCN60-89W100%0.0
11-22Duke (6.0)ACCN70-59L0%0.0
11-25Delaware (253.0)CAAH84-47W100%0.0
11-30DePaul (197.0)BEA87-72L0%0.0
12-13Denver (232.0)SumH49-43W100%0.0
12-17Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH67-58W100%0.0
12-20BYU (36.0)WCCA79-77L0%0.0
12-23Texas (42.0)B12A71-74W100%0.0
12-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH74-39W100%0.0
1-2Washington St. (169.0)P12H71-56W100%0.0
1-4Washington (126.0)P12H68-60W100%0.0
1-8UCLA (48.0)P12A86-81L0%0.0
1-11USC (207.0)P12A76-78W100%0.0
1-14California (95.0)P12A59-69W100%0.0
1-17Connecticut (77.0)AmerH72-59W100%0.0
1-22Arizona (5.0)P12H82-89L0%0.0
1-24Arizona St. (102.0)P12H89-70W100%0.0
1-28Washington (126.0)P12A74-84W100%0.0
1-31Washington St. (169.0)P12A89-88L0%0.0
2-5UCLA (48.0)P12H67-69L0%0.0
2-8USC (207.0)P12H70-62W100%0.0
2-12Utah (20.0)P12A75-59L0%0.0
2-15Colorado (116.0)P12A64-58L0%0.0
2-21California (95.0)P12H72-61W100%0.0
2-26Oregon St. (133.0)P12H75-48W100%0.0
3-1Oregon (27.0)P12H70-73L0%0.0
3-5Arizona St. (102.0)P12A67-62L0%0.0
3-7Arizona (5.0)P12A91-69L0%0.0
3-11Washington (126.0)P12N69-71W100%0.0
3-12Utah (20.0)P12N80-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.2726.2758.3358.334.384.38
WashingtonP125.325.3257.1457.140.760.76
CaliforniaP124.004.0058.0658.060.650.65
UtahP123.983.9872.4172.411.781.78
ArizonaP123.933.9390.6290.623.193.19
USCP123.913.9140.0040.00-0.78-0.78
Arizona St.P123.883.8853.3353.330.260.26
UCLAP123.883.8858.0658.060.630.63
Washington St.P123.863.8641.3841.38-0.67-0.67
OregonP122.492.4971.8871.881.091.09
ColoradoP122.472.4745.1645.16-0.24-0.24
Oregon St.P122.412.4155.1755.170.250.25
Loyola MarymountWCC1.731.7324.1424.14-0.90-0.90
UNLVMWC1.731.7354.8454.840.170.17
BYUWCC1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
South DakotaSum1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
TexasB121.631.6362.5062.500.410.41
DenverSum1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
WoffordSC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
DukeACC1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
ConnecticutAmer1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
DelawareCAA1.561.5634.4834.48-0.48-0.48
San Diego St.MWC0.270.2775.7675.760.140.14
GonzagaWCC0.270.2793.9493.940.240.24
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
PacificWCC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.170.170.000.00-0.17-0.17
UTEPCUSA0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.150.000.00-0.15-0.15
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
DrexelCAA0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1062.9662.960.030.03
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01