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Through games of Feb 28, 2015.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:43.8
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:69
Current Record:18-9
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:9-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:3.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-927.13.55%
20-1034.437.67%
19-1148.146.44%
18-1261.412.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wofford (47.9)SCH74-59W100%0.0
11-16South Dakota (215.6)SumH84-73W100%0.0
11-21UNLV (94.3)MWCN60-89W100%0.0
11-22Duke (5.3)ACCN70-59L0%0.0
11-25Delaware (254.9)CAAH84-47W100%0.0
11-30DePaul (175.4)BEA87-72L0%0.0
12-13Denver (235.4)SumH49-43W100%0.0
12-17Loyola Marymount (244.5)WCCH67-58W100%0.0
12-20BYU (35.6)WCCA79-77L0%0.0
12-23Texas (48.4)B12A71-74W100%0.0
12-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.9)SWACH74-39W100%0.0
1-2Washington St. (156.2)P12H71-56W100%0.0
1-4Washington (116.3)P12H68-60W100%0.0
1-8UCLA (56.6)P12A86-81L0%0.0
1-11USC (206.0)P12A76-78W100%0.0
1-14California (106.2)P12A59-69W100%0.0
1-17Connecticut (73.2)AmerH72-59W100%0.0
1-22Arizona (5.9)P12H82-89L0%0.0
1-24Arizona St. (86.7)P12H89-70W100%0.0
1-28Washington (116.3)P12A74-84W100%0.0
1-31Washington St. (156.2)P12A89-88L0%0.0
2-5UCLA (56.6)P12H67-69L0%0.0
2-8USC (206.0)P12H70-62W100%0.0
2-12Utah (13.2)P12A75-59L0%0.0
2-15Colorado (129.5)P12A64-58L0%0.0
2-21California (106.2)P12H72-61W100%0.0
2-26Oregon St. (98.3)P12H75-48W100%0.0
3-1Oregon (43.1)P12H0-073%6.4
3-5Arizona St. (86.7)P12A0-050%-0.1
3-7Arizona (5.9)P12A0-011%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.2126.2166.0664.538.427.62
CaliforniaP124.394.1361.5457.831.010.65
Arizona St.P122.484.0555.5656.210.280.50
ArizonaP122.494.0289.2989.591.953.18
USCP124.344.0240.7439.79-0.80-0.82
UCLAP124.244.0055.5657.790.470.62
WashingtonP124.303.9957.6956.070.660.49
Washington St.P124.233.9944.0041.18-0.51-0.70
UtahP122.612.5476.9278.041.401.43
ColoradoP122.542.5242.3143.15-0.39-0.34
Oregon St.P122.612.5261.5460.510.600.53
OregonP120.822.4971.4370.720.351.03
Loyola MarymountWCC2.041.8625.0025.00-1.02-0.93
UNLVMWC1.981.8355.5656.310.220.23
South DakotaSum1.981.7850.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC1.951.7571.4371.430.840.75
DePaulBE1.951.7537.9337.58-0.47-0.44
TexasB121.951.7560.7161.310.420.40
DenverSum1.921.7242.8642.86-0.27-0.25
DukeACC1.921.7289.2988.131.511.31
WoffordSC1.921.7282.1482.141.231.11
ConnecticutAmer1.921.7261.5460.370.440.36
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.851.6734.4835.63-0.57-0.48
DelawareCAA1.851.6735.7135.71-0.53-0.48
GonzagaWCC0.290.2893.3393.330.250.24
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2275.0075.360.100.11
PortlandWCC0.200.1750.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.190.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.160.1757.1457.140.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.190.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.170.170.000.17-0.17-0.17
WyomingMWC0.200.1770.3768.780.080.06
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1642.8645.00-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.170.1667.8669.210.060.06
OklahomaB120.190.1671.4370.330.080.07
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1453.5753.570.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1471.4371.430.070.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1467.8667.860.060.05
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1441.3841.38-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1466.6766.670.050.05
DrexelCAA0.160.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.160.1462.9661.640.040.03
TempleAmer0.130.1468.9768.660.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1437.0437.85-0.04-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.140.001.27-0.16-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1315.3814.81-0.11-0.09
IPFWSum0.130.1150.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1137.0437.67-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1124.0024.00-0.07-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1153.8554.380.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1146.1544.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.130.1150.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.130.1132.0031.18-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1148.2848.79-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.130.1148.1548.95-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.1124.1423.76-0.03-0.06
KansasB120.130.1179.3177.530.080.06
UC IrvineBW0.060.1157.6958.360.010.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1175.8674.170.070.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1142.3142.09-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1125.9325.35-0.06-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1169.2369.500.050.04
NevadaMWC0.130.1126.9225.67-0.06-0.05
TCUB120.130.1158.6257.150.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1157.1456.290.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.1150.0048.830.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.1140.7441.13-0.01-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1168.9768.760.040.04
SyracuseACC0.130.1162.0759.850.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.0959.2659.260.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0975.0074.360.050.04
ElonCAA0.100.0841.3841.38-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0824.1424.66-0.05-0.04
FurmanSC0.100.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0882.1481.280.060.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0822.2222.90-0.04-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.0874.0775.590.050.04
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0815.3816.37-0.07-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.060.0850.0049.020.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.100.0860.7160.840.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.0844.0043.24-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0844.8343.41-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.100.0857.6958.420.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.0821.4321.47-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0859.2658.600.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0830.7731.12-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0893.1092.700.080.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0835.7136.98-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0860.7160.050.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0844.4443.81-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0848.1549.32-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0863.6464.210.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0817.2420.20-0.04-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0818.5217.91-0.04-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.08100.0099.550.100.08
LehighPat0.060.0853.5753.570.000.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0867.8665.680.030.03
WisconsinB100.100.0889.2987.440.080.06
Texas TechB120.090.0843.3342.04-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.8555.970.000.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
VMISC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0689.6689.660.050.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0639.2938.92-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0651.7251.720.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0640.7442.15-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0658.6258.890.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0668.9768.270.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0640.7440.47-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0644.0044.87-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0658.6256.860.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0651.7249.610.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0648.0047.71-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0681.4880.500.020.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.5728.64-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0625.9328.17-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0677.7875.090.040.03
UC DavisBW0.070.0680.0079.410.040.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0644.0045.84-0.01-0.00
VermontAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0562.0762.630.020.01
LipscombASun0.070.0538.4638.46-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0565.5264.240.010.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0533.3335.15-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0530.7731.72-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0575.0074.800.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0529.6331.52-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0572.4171.610.030.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0565.3865.380.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0551.8551.850.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0566.6765.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0575.0075.280.020.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0571.4370.550.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0527.5927.59-0.03-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0582.7682.190.020.03
MissouriSEC0.030.0525.0026.34-0.02-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0551.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0518.1820.76-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0582.7681.280.040.03
OaklandHorz0.030.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0546.1547.63-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0567.8667.090.020.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0557.1455.590.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0571.4369.990.010.02
UABCUSA0.060.0553.5754.380.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0542.8641.72-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0560.0060.270.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0567.8665.870.020.02
OhioMAC0.060.0533.3333.19-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0529.1730.80-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0535.7138.37-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0540.7442.95-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0544.4443.54-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0557.1459.480.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0342.8642.04-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0323.0824.73-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0380.0079.590.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0358.6257.170.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0346.4345.01-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0328.5731.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0323.0823.78-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.680.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.030.02
PurdueB100.030.0367.8664.650.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0353.5753.100.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.90-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.780.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0324.0024.53-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0340.0040.16-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.70-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.5777.410.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.2847.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0367.8666.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.0761.990.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.5264.790.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.1547.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.7440.63-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.000.0372.4172.030.000.01
YaleIvy0.030.0370.3768.760.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0357.1455.080.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.970.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0341.3840.71-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.5265.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0379.3177.780.020.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0362.0761.920.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0342.3142.97-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.2963.040.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.6741.70-0.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0355.5655.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.4394.530.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0334.4834.77-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0324.0023.52-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0375.0073.770.020.01
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02