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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:77.8
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:9
Current Record:13-14
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1458.77.33%
14-1571.240.53%
13-1685.652.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Harvard (115.4)IvyN80-70W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWH96-69W100%0.0
11-17Weber St. (183.7)BSkyH67-49W100%0.0
11-20Colorado St. (72.3)MWCH56-49W100%0.0
11-24Miami FL (31.9)ACCN67-53L0%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (223.1)MVCN65-62W100%0.0
11-27Seton Hall (50.7)BEN52-66W100%0.0
11-30Saint Mary's (16.3)WCCH51-66L0%0.0
12-3Kansas (2.2)B12A89-74L0%0.0
12-19SMU (16.5)AmerA72-49L0%0.0
12-22Idaho (222.4)BSkyH86-80W100%0.0
12-30Arizona St. (131.8)P12H93-98L0%0.0
1-1Arizona (8.0)P12H52-91L0%0.0
1-5USC (41.8)P12A72-56L0%0.0
1-8UCLA (15.9)P12A89-75L0%0.0
1-12Washington St. (150.1)P12H84-54W100%0.0
1-14Washington (205.8)P12H76-69W100%0.0
1-19Oregon St. (283.9)P12A46-62W100%0.0
1-21Oregon (7.5)P12A69-52L0%0.0
1-29California (48.9)P12A66-55L0%0.0
2-2Colorado (119.7)P12H74-81L0%0.0
2-4Utah (82.8)P12H81-75W100%0.0
2-8Arizona (8.0)P12A74-67L0%0.0
2-11Arizona St. (131.8)P12A75-69L0%0.0
2-17California (48.9)P12H73-68W100%0.0
2-22Oregon St. (283.9)P12H79-66W100%0.0
2-25Oregon (7.5)P12H73-75L0%0.0
3-2Colorado (119.7)P12A0-033%-4.7
3-4Utah (82.8)P12A0-024%-7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.2126.2543.3643.68-3.48-3.32
CaliforniaP124.444.2869.2367.661.711.51
ColoradoP122.604.2351.8551.690.100.14
OregonP124.364.2085.1985.613.072.99
Oregon St.P124.364.2014.8114.39-3.07-2.99
UtahP122.564.1964.0063.780.721.16
ArizonaP124.364.1485.7185.623.112.95
Arizona St.P124.364.1442.8641.97-0.62-0.66
Washington St.P122.602.5646.1543.30-0.20-0.34
UCLAP122.662.5689.2989.832.092.04
USCP122.652.5571.4372.371.141.14
WashingtonP122.562.5333.3331.78-0.85-0.92
IdahoBSky1.961.8254.1755.470.160.20
Weber St.BSky1.931.7958.3359.250.320.33
Colorado St.MWC1.881.7869.2367.910.720.64
Seton HallBE1.921.7866.6764.790.640.53
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.881.7541.6742.95-0.31-0.25
SMUAmer1.881.7585.7186.071.351.26
HarvardIvy1.851.7272.7369.860.840.68
Indiana St.MVC1.851.7235.7135.71-0.53-0.49
KansasB121.851.7289.2988.111.461.31
Miami FLACC1.851.7270.3768.230.750.63
Saint Mary'sWCC1.851.7289.2989.291.461.35
MontanaBSky0.240.2448.2848.65-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2437.9338.88-0.06-0.05
PortlandWCC0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
Montana St.BSky0.180.2248.1547.91-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.230.2153.5755.070.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.200.2130.7732.97-0.08-0.07
ButlerBE0.160.2079.3179.350.100.12
UNLVMWC0.230.2034.4833.87-0.07-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1966.6767.530.060.06
UC DavisBW0.210.1959.2658.390.040.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.1828.0030.25-0.09-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.200.1865.3865.550.060.05
BYUWCC0.170.1867.7467.740.060.06
XavierBE0.130.1862.0762.620.030.04
Fresno St.MWC0.200.1757.6957.830.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1755.5656.670.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1614.8115.93-0.13-0.11
HawaiiBW0.140.1550.0048.750.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.140.1524.0023.98-0.07-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1536.0035.08-0.04-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.170.1548.0046.19-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1529.6331.85-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1516.0016.70-0.12-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.170.1555.1754.850.020.01
NevadaMWC0.130.1579.3179.090.080.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1450.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.130.1455.5655.160.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.160.1496.6796.670.150.13
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1453.5752.890.010.01
CreightonBE0.160.1475.0074.570.080.07
TCUB120.160.1457.1456.900.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1341.6741.50-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.1375.0075.780.050.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1225.0025.07-0.05-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1246.1546.13-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1240.0041.50-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1250.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.140.1244.4445.15-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1263.3363.330.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.140.1245.8345.20-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.05
Kansas St.B120.130.1258.6257.980.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1148.2847.22-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1136.0035.98-0.04-0.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1167.8666.170.050.04
BaylorB120.130.1178.5777.150.070.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1148.1548.26-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.100.1134.4834.12-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1182.7682.930.080.07
TulaneAmer0.130.1117.8618.08-0.08-0.07
PennIvy0.070.1048.0049.55-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.110.1058.3360.030.020.02
CornellIvy0.110.1023.0823.48-0.06-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.110.1065.2266.440.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.1011.1111.98-0.06-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0948.0048.50-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.100.0971.4370.580.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.0944.8343.89-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0955.1755.170.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0986.6786.670.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0944.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0950.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.100.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0933.3332.49-0.02-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0954.1752.440.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0946.4345.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0976.6776.670.050.05
Notre DameACC0.070.0975.8674.710.030.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0940.0039.27-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.0967.8668.150.040.03
WoffordSC0.070.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0980.7781.310.060.05
DukeACC0.100.0975.8674.140.050.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0872.0072.040.040.04
DavidsonA100.090.0851.8551.280.000.00
BrownIvy0.080.0738.4639.38-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0724.0022.79-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0631.0329.49-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0655.1754.140.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0625.9326.04-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0652.0053.480.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0630.7730.93-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0658.3359.230.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0052.300.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.1456.750.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0631.0330.04-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0679.3179.350.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.030.0679.3177.540.020.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0657.1456.880.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0648.0049.70-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0623.0824.04-0.02-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0667.8668.870.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0660.7159.700.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0049.680.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0662.0762.540.020.01
RutgersB100.070.0642.8642.28-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0051.170.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0637.0436.94-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0690.0089.570.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.030.0671.4370.190.010.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0651.7250.150.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0644.4445.39-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0626.6727.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0686.2185.440.050.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0644.8343.04-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0667.8666.440.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0662.0761.430.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0665.5265.140.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0662.0761.020.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.17-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.060.0640.7439.61-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0635.7135.48-0.01-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0667.8666.120.010.02
PurdueB100.060.0679.3178.860.040.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.990.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0660.7163.340.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0658.6258.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0625.9325.45-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0679.3178.510.040.03
BryantNEC0.040.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0342.8642.42-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0318.5220.52-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0348.2847.58-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0383.3383.330.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0348.1548.55-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.040.0355.1755.170.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0361.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.040.0342.3141.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0346.1546.81-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0356.0056.310.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0360.7159.770.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0362.5062.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.9276.820.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0350.0052.370.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.0030.44-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0353.5752.450.000.00
IowaB100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0379.3179.060.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.7681.210.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0371.4371.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.6757.420.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.730.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0321.4322.56-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0026.00-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0340.0041.22-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0357.1457.030.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0355.1753.960.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0355.1754.740.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.9325.22-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.030.0351.8551.300.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.5266.270.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0344.4445.62-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01