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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:86
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:6
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:114
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-1586.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Green Bay (112.0)HorzH93-89W100%0.0
11-15Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH93-59W100%0.0
11-19SMU (13.0)AmerH70-85L0%0.0
11-22Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA78-61L0%0.0
11-26Villanova (4.0)BEN59-45L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas (133.0)SECN69-66W100%0.0
12-12Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH64-50W100%0.0
12-15DePaul (198.0)BEH79-60W100%0.0
12-19Texas (27.0)B12H73-75L0%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH70-60W100%0.0
1-1Utah (8.0)P12H70-68W100%0.0
1-3Colorado (35.0)P12H55-56L0%0.0
1-6Oregon St. (33.0)P12A72-78W100%0.0
1-10Oregon (2.0)P12A71-58L0%0.0
1-14California (16.0)P12H77-71W100%0.0
1-21Arizona (26.0)P12H57-71L0%0.0
1-23Arizona St. (99.0)P12H75-73W100%0.0
1-27Colorado (35.0)P12A91-75L0%0.0
1-30Utah (8.0)P12A96-74L0%0.0
2-6California (16.0)P12A76-61L0%0.0
2-11Oregon St. (33.0)P12H50-62L0%0.0
2-13Oregon (2.0)P12H76-72W100%0.0
2-18Washington St. (212.0)P12A56-72W100%0.0
2-20Washington (83.0)P12A64-53L0%0.0
2-25USC (51.0)P12H84-64W100%0.0
2-27UCLA (102.0)P12H79-70W100%0.0
3-3Arizona St. (99.0)P12A74-64L0%0.0
3-5Arizona (26.0)P12A94-62L0%0.0
3-9Washington (83.0)P12N91-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.2226.2242.9842.98-3.68-3.68
CaliforniaP124.374.3770.9770.971.831.83
UtahP124.334.3377.4277.422.382.38
OregonP124.334.3383.8783.872.942.94
ColoradoP124.314.3163.3363.331.151.15
WashingtonP124.304.3053.3353.330.290.29
Oregon St.P124.274.2760.7160.710.920.92
ArizonaP124.254.2574.1974.192.062.06
Arizona St.P124.234.2346.6746.67-0.28-0.28
USCP122.612.6165.6265.620.820.82
Washington St.P122.582.5827.5927.59-1.16-1.16
UCLAP122.562.5648.3948.39-0.08-0.08
TexasB121.831.8361.2961.290.410.41
VillanovaBE1.781.7884.8584.851.241.24
Sacramento St.BSky1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
SMUAmer1.781.7882.7682.761.161.16
Saint Mary'sWCC1.781.7883.3383.331.181.18
DePaulBE1.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
ArkansasSEC1.761.7651.6151.610.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth1.751.7523.0823.08-0.94-0.94
DartmouthIvy1.721.7234.6234.62-0.53-0.53
Green BayHorz1.721.7265.6265.620.540.54
GonzagaWCC0.270.2778.1278.120.150.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1980.0080.000.110.11
UNLVMWC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
PacificWCC0.160.1623.0823.08-0.09-0.09
Seton HallBE0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
BYUWCC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
CreightonBE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
MarquetteBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
PennIvy0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.140.1487.8887.880.100.10
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
BaylorB120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
YaleIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
TulsaAmer0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
IdahoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
TempleAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
St. John'sBE0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01