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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:41.0
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:17
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Bucknell (167.0)PatH72-68W100%0.0
11-11BYU (31.0)WCCH103-112L0%0.0
11-14Northwestern (123.0)B10H71-58W100%0.0
11-17Denver (139.0)SumA57-66W100%0.0
11-21Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH97-71W100%0.0
11-25Houston (143.0)AmerN76-86W100%0.0
11-26Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN67-88L0%0.0
12-1South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH92-60W100%0.0
12-14UC Davis (326.0)BWH83-56W100%0.0
12-18Connecticut (22.0)AmerA51-53W100%0.0
12-21Michigan (11.0)B10N65-68L0%0.0
12-29Cal Poly (208.0)BWH79-62W100%0.0
1-2California (63.0)P12H62-69L0%0.0
1-9Oregon St. (100.0)P12A81-72L0%0.0
1-12Oregon (28.0)P12A80-82W100%0.0
1-15Washington St. (224.0)P12H80-48W100%0.0
1-18Washington (104.0)P12H79-67W100%0.0
1-23UCLA (14.0)P12A91-74L0%0.0
1-26USC (176.0)P12A71-79W100%0.0
1-29Arizona (2.0)P12H57-60L0%0.0
2-1Arizona St. (44.0)P12H76-70W100%0.0
2-5California (63.0)P12A69-80W100%0.0
2-12Washington (104.0)P12A64-60L0%0.0
2-15Washington St. (224.0)P12A56-69W100%0.0
2-20USC (176.0)P12H80-59W100%0.0
2-22UCLA (14.0)P12H83-74W100%0.0
2-26Arizona St. (44.0)P12A76-64L0%0.0
3-2Arizona (2.0)P12A79-66L0%0.0
3-5Colorado (34.0)P12H56-59L0%0.0
3-8Utah (80.0)P12H61-60W100%0.0
3-12Washington St. (224.0)P12N74-63W100%0.0
3-13Arizona St. (44.0)P12N58-79W100%0.0
3-14UCLA (14.0)P12N84-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.4026.4061.5961.596.126.12
UCLAP125.265.2677.4277.422.882.88
Arizona St.P125.165.1668.9768.971.961.96
Washington St.P125.165.1633.3333.33-1.72-1.72
CaliforniaP123.883.8860.0060.000.780.78
ArizonaP123.863.8687.5087.502.892.89
WashingtonP123.753.7553.3353.330.250.25
USCP123.713.7134.4834.48-1.15-1.15
ColoradoP122.512.5166.6766.670.840.84
OregonP122.512.5174.1974.191.211.21
UtahP122.502.5065.5265.520.780.78
Oregon St.P122.392.3950.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW1.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
DenverSum1.621.6251.7251.720.060.06
ConnecticutAmer1.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
NorthwesternB101.601.6043.7543.75-0.20-0.20
UC DavisBW1.591.5925.0025.00-0.80-0.80
MichiganB101.581.5875.0075.000.790.79
South Dakota St.Sum1.571.5759.2659.260.290.29
BYUWCC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
HoustonAmer1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
PittsburghACC1.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
BucknellPat1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
Texas SouthernSWAC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
UC IrvineBW0.340.3465.6265.620.110.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.290.2967.8667.860.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1630.3030.30-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.8114.81-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
IPFWSum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
IdahoWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00