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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:86.6
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:2
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1024.00.01%
17-1134.80.23%
16-1247.02.70%
15-1360.19.79%
14-1472.022.82%
13-1585.829.87%
12-16101.523.21%
11-17118.99.63%
10-18135.91.73%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Green Bay (161.2)HorzH93-89W100%0.0
11-15Charleston Southern (275.4)BSthH93-59W100%0.0
11-19SMU (11.5)AmerH70-85L0%0.0
11-22Saint Mary's (39.2)WCCA78-61L0%0.0
11-26Villanova (3.7)BEN59-45L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas (101.6)SECN69-66W100%0.0
12-12Dartmouth (290.9)IvyH64-50W100%0.0
12-15DePaul (166.6)BEH79-60W100%0.0
12-19Texas (27.6)B12H73-75L0%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (250.2)BSkyH70-60W100%0.0
1-1Utah (30.0)P12H70-68W100%0.0
1-3Colorado (44.9)P12H55-56L0%0.0
1-6Oregon St. (57.9)P12A72-78W100%0.0
1-10Oregon (5.4)P12A71-58L0%0.0
1-14California (43.6)P12H77-71W100%0.0
1-21Arizona (26.1)P12H57-71L0%0.0
1-23Arizona St. (78.4)P12H75-73W100%0.0
1-27Colorado (44.9)P12A91-75L0%0.0
1-30Utah (30.0)P12A96-74L0%0.0
2-6California (43.6)P12A76-61L0%0.0
2-11Oregon St. (57.9)P12H0-057%1.8
2-13Oregon (5.4)P12H0-032%-5.2
2-18Washington St. (184.9)P12A0-057%2.0
2-20Washington (61.9)P12A0-029%-6.0
2-25USC (21.3)P12H0-037%-3.7
2-27UCLA (70.1)P12H0-052%0.5
3-3Arizona St. (78.4)P12A0-030%-5.7
3-5Arizona (26.1)P12A0-010%-13.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.4426.2642.8641.12-3.78-4.67
CaliforniaP125.714.4466.6763.721.901.22
ColoradoP125.614.3866.6762.851.871.13
UtahP125.554.3571.4368.752.381.63
OregonP123.214.3481.8278.862.042.51
Oregon St.P123.204.3365.0059.100.960.79
Arizona St.P122.844.3156.5252.840.370.24
ArizonaP122.774.2878.2677.211.572.33
WashingtonP120.532.6765.2260.760.160.57
UCLAP120.222.6256.5253.440.030.18
USCP120.222.6278.2673.380.121.22
Washington St.P120.432.6136.3631.60-0.12-0.96
SMUAmer2.611.8590.4885.632.111.32
TexasB122.501.8565.2260.940.760.40
VillanovaBE2.551.8586.9686.471.891.35
DePaulBE2.551.8434.7835.19-0.78-0.55
Sacramento St.BSky2.551.8444.4447.43-0.28-0.09
Saint Mary'sWCC2.611.8485.0084.821.831.28
ArkansasSEC2.561.8252.1754.870.110.18
Charleston SouthernBSth2.551.8125.0027.62-1.28-0.81
DartmouthIvy2.501.7933.3332.97-0.83-0.61
Green BayHorz2.501.7957.1458.020.360.29
GonzagaWCC0.110.2478.2676.810.060.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2442.8650.39-0.030.00
UNLVMWC0.160.2050.0055.190.000.02
PacificWCC0.290.1925.0028.89-0.15-0.08
BYUWCC0.340.1966.6769.490.110.07
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1881.8283.040.110.12
Boise St.MWC0.160.1763.6462.590.040.04
CreightonBE0.260.1764.0062.090.070.04
MarquetteBE0.160.1762.5056.050.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.210.1775.0070.990.100.07
PortlandWCC0.230.1640.0038.51-0.05-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1645.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.220.1573.9169.970.110.06
KansasB120.110.1582.6179.190.070.09
Texas TechB120.260.1559.0953.180.050.01
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1545.4551.34-0.010.00
XavierBE0.160.1587.5081.810.120.09
Texas A&MSEC0.210.1478.2677.860.120.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1339.1338.57-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.070.1354.5554.950.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1315.0015.34-0.12-0.09
PennIvy0.120.1238.8937.63-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.1273.6874.680.030.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1266.6767.700.060.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1230.4331.20-0.04-0.05
TulsaAmer0.120.1265.2261.470.040.03
AkronMAC0.220.1282.6181.140.140.08
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1273.9176.720.080.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.1210.0013.14-0.04-0.09
RiceCUSA0.170.1228.5729.66-0.07-0.05
SeattleWAC0.170.1247.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1238.1037.68-0.04-0.03
TempleAmer0.170.1263.6459.810.050.02
OklahomaB120.100.1286.9682.650.080.08
BaylorB120.110.1272.7366.400.050.04
ButlerBE0.160.1269.5767.150.060.04
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1243.4841.96-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1261.9059.540.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.160.1256.0052.830.020.01
Iowa St.B120.160.1273.9170.050.080.05
San Diego St.MWC0.220.1272.7372.110.100.05
St. John'sBE0.050.1225.0023.40-0.03-0.06
TCUB120.160.1245.8339.34-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1275.0072.610.050.05
MissouriSEC0.100.1234.7830.33-0.03-0.05
UC DavisBW0.190.1040.0036.76-0.04-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.130.1031.5837.70-0.05-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.170.1056.5257.010.020.01
BrownIvy0.060.1031.5831.07-0.02-0.04
MontanaBSky0.130.1057.8962.320.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0956.5257.280.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.120.0931.8229.12-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.0959.0959.420.030.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0935.0032.27-0.02-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0928.5726.98-0.05-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.0972.7371.650.050.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.095.007.21-0.10-0.08
OaklandHorz0.060.0968.0067.980.020.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0930.0034.55-0.02-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.0952.9452.080.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.170.0959.0961.320.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.0918.1821.15-0.11-0.05
Penn St.B100.160.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.160.0952.1751.510.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0959.0953.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.0939.1335.43-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0973.9172.480.020.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.0945.0049.25-0.02-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0980.0081.160.000.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0917.6526.57-0.07-0.04
VirginiaACC0.160.0983.3378.470.110.05
CampbellBSth0.060.0728.5729.65-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0760.0060.080.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0745.4547.57-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0755.0057.460.010.01
LibertyBSth0.120.0734.7836.50-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0725.0026.86-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.0765.2266.200.040.02
WinthropBSth0.120.0765.0063.410.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.130.0722.7324.97-0.07-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0766.6765.220.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.0742.1140.21-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0752.3854.080.000.01
HarvardIvy0.130.0735.0038.50-0.04-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.130.0740.9143.71-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0772.2274.700.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0754.5550.110.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0765.0069.240.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.110.0669.5764.890.040.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.8760.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0655.0054.530.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0636.3636.15-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.120.0657.1453.990.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0659.0959.630.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.0633.3335.06-0.04-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.4332.36-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.064.357.72-0.10-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.0658.3360.730.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.3920.65-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.0645.4538.44-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.22-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0672.0071.540.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0652.3850.420.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.069.0912.24-0.09-0.04
DukeACC0.110.0675.0071.800.050.03
HoustonAmer0.110.0669.5766.580.040.02
IPFWSum0.110.0670.8368.550.050.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.200.000.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0660.8760.820.010.01
Miami FLACC0.110.0682.6177.520.070.03
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.370.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0656.5256.320.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.0019.68-0.07-0.04
TulaneAmer0.060.0633.3332.36-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.110.0669.5766.220.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.110.040.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.90-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.55-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0614.2920.67-0.08-0.03
DavidsonA100.110.0660.0057.940.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.790.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.300.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.40-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0643.4843.78-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.390.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.110.0654.5554.470.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0656.5259.860.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.46-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.090.030.03
WyomingMWC0.110.0643.4842.49-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0350.0051.300.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0325.0026.39-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0354.1754.140.010.00
HartfordAE0.070.0325.0026.75-0.03-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.7424.19-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0352.0054.860.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0350.0052.370.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0354.1755.020.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0336.8437.57-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.8762.040.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.920.000.00
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.830.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.910.040.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.91-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.21-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.410.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0365.2260.590.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0340.0045.50-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.65-0.010.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.060.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.17-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.040.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.34-0.03-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.250.030.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.920.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.300.010.00
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.46-0.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0321.7423.00-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.740.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.05-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.020.020.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0362.5058.930.000.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.130.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.910.030.02
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.280.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.320.020.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02