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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Stanford

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:100.0
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:24
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17100.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Harvard (143.0)IvyN80-70W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH96-69W100%0.0
11-17Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH67-49W100%0.0
11-20Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH56-49W100%0.0
11-24Miami FL (41.0)ACCN67-53L0%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (234.0)MVCN65-62W100%0.0
11-27Seton Hall (43.0)BEN52-66W100%0.0
11-30Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH51-66L0%0.0
12-3Kansas (4.0)B12A89-74L0%0.0
12-19SMU (13.0)AmerA72-49L0%0.0
12-22Idaho (209.0)BSkyH86-80W100%0.0
12-30Arizona St. (125.0)P12H93-98L0%0.0
1-1Arizona (2.0)P12H52-91L0%0.0
1-5USC (40.0)P12A72-56L0%0.0
1-8UCLA (16.0)P12A89-75L0%0.0
1-12Washington St. (159.0)P12H84-54W100%0.0
1-14Washington (211.0)P12H76-69W100%0.0
1-19Oregon St. (280.0)P12A46-62W100%0.0
1-21Oregon (9.0)P12A69-52L0%0.0
1-29California (53.0)P12A66-55L0%0.0
2-2Colorado (99.0)P12H74-81L0%0.0
2-4Utah (83.0)P12H81-75W100%0.0
2-8Arizona (2.0)P12A74-67L0%0.0
2-11Arizona St. (125.0)P12A75-69L0%0.0
2-17California (53.0)P12H73-68W100%0.0
2-22Oregon St. (280.0)P12H79-66W100%0.0
2-25Oregon (9.0)P12H73-75L0%0.0
3-2Colorado (99.0)P12A91-72L0%0.0
3-4Utah (83.0)P12A67-59L0%0.0
3-8Arizona St. (125.0)P12N98-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StanfordP1226.2626.2639.5239.52-5.51-5.51
Arizona St.P125.675.6740.0040.00-1.13-1.13
CaliforniaP124.304.3064.5264.521.251.25
OregonP124.224.2283.8783.872.862.86
ColoradoP124.154.1553.3353.330.280.28
ArizonaP124.144.1487.5087.503.103.10
Oregon St.P124.094.0913.7913.79-2.96-2.96
UtahP124.084.0862.9662.961.061.06
UCLAP122.552.5587.5087.501.911.91
Washington St.P122.532.5341.3841.38-0.44-0.44
USCP122.522.5271.8871.881.101.10
WashingtonP122.472.4730.0030.00-0.99-0.99
IdahoBSky1.751.7557.1457.140.250.25
Weber St.BSky1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
Seton HallBE1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.691.6937.0437.04-0.44-0.44
SMUAmer1.691.6987.8887.881.281.28
HarvardIvy1.671.6764.0064.000.470.47
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
KansasB121.671.6787.1087.101.241.24
Miami FLACC1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Saint Mary'sWCC1.671.6787.1087.101.241.24
MontanaBSky0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2240.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
UNLVMWC0.200.2034.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
ButlerBE0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
UC DavisBW0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
XavierBE0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Boise St.MWC0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
CreightonBE0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.150.1596.9796.970.140.14
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
North DakotaBSky0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1318.5218.52-0.08-0.08
Portland St.BSky0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.1178.5778.570.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01