Stanford

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	77.0
Current RPI:	77
Expected SOS:	42
Current SOS:	42
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	75
Expected OOC SOS:	85

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	77.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	N	74-62	W	100%
11-12	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	81-68	W	100%
11-15	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	69-51	W	100%
11-18	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	62-70	L	0%
11-22	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	N	70-78	L	0%
11-23	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	N	50-66	W	100%
11-24	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	N	63-66	L	0%
11-28	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	68-57	W	100%
12-2	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	71-58	W	100%
12-15	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	75-52	W	100%
12-18	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	88-79	L	0%
12-21	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	68-70	W	100%
12-29	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	65-59	W	100%
1-3	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	71-69	L	0%
1-5	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	68-60	L	0%
1-9	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	78-67	W	100%
1-12	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	60-65	L	0%
1-19	California (54.0)	P12	H	69-59	W	100%
1-24	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	75-54	L	0%
1-27	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	56-87	W	100%
1-30	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	76-52	W	100%
2-3	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	81-73	W	100%
2-6	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	73-66	L	0%
2-9	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	59-62	W	100%
2-14	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	64-65	L	0%
2-16	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	80-88	L	0%
2-21	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	72-82	W	100%
2-23	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	77-66	L	0%
2-27	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	63-65	L	0%
3-3	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	84-66	W	100%
3-6	California (54.0)	P12	A	70-83	W	100%
3-13	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	N	88-89	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stanford	P12	26.17	26.17	53.42	53.42	1.79	1.79
Utah	P12	3.94	3.94	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Oregon	P12	3.90	3.90	78.12	78.12	2.20	2.20
California	P12	3.90	3.90	68.97	68.97	1.48	1.48
UCLA	P12	3.90	3.90	71.88	71.88	1.71	1.71
Colorado	P12	3.88	3.88	63.33	63.33	1.03	1.03
Arizona St.	P12	3.85	3.85	64.52	64.52	1.12	1.12
Oregon St.	P12	3.83	3.83	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Southern California	P12	3.83	3.83	40.00	40.00	-0.77	-0.77
Washington	P12	2.41	2.41	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
Arizona	P12	2.38	2.38	77.42	77.42	1.31	1.31
Washington St.	P12	2.31	2.31	41.94	41.94	-0.37	-0.37
Denver	WAC	1.69	1.69	72.41	72.41	0.76	0.76
Minnesota	B10	1.68	1.68	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Seattle	WAC	1.64	1.64	25.00	25.00	-0.82	-0.82
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.64	1.64	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Missouri	SEC	1.63	1.63	68.75	68.75	0.61	0.61
UC Davis	BW	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Northwestern	B10	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.59	1.59	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Lafayette	Pat	1.59	1.59	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.59	1.59	29.03	29.03	-0.67	-0.67
Belmont	OVC	1.56	1.56	79.31	79.31	0.92	0.92
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.56	1.56	69.70	69.70	0.62	0.62
San Francisco	WCC	1.56	1.56	46.43	46.43	-0.11	-0.11
Long Beach St.	BW	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01