Stanford

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	86.0
Current RPI:	86
Expected SOS:	36
Current SOS:	36
Current Record:	18-15
Expected Record:	18-15
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	161
Expected OOC SOS:	29

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-15	86.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stanford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	78-62	W	100%
11-12	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	89-80	W	100%
11-14	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	61-67	L	0%
11-17	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	73-59	W	100%
11-20	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	H	72-96	L	0%
11-23	Florida (46.0)	SEC	N	87-108	L	0%
11-24	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	N	79-71	L	0%
11-26	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	N	87-78	L	0%
11-29	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	70-54	W	100%
12-3	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	76-68	L	0%
12-15	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	75-62	W	100%
12-17	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	71-59	W	100%
12-21	Kansas (5.0)	B12	N	54-75	L	0%
12-30	California (216.0)	P12	H	74-77	L	0%
1-4	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	107-99	W	100%
1-7	USC (34.0)	P12	H	77-76	W	100%
1-11	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	70-79	W	100%
1-13	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	64-73	W	100%
1-17	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	86-77	W	100%
1-20	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	71-73	L	0%
1-24	USC (34.0)	P12	A	69-64	L	0%
1-27	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	89-73	L	0%
2-1	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	80-71	W	100%
2-3	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	96-61	W	100%
2-8	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	75-60	L	0%
2-11	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	64-56	L	0%
2-18	California (216.0)	P12	A	73-77	W	100%
2-22	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	94-78	W	100%
2-24	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	86-84	W	100%
3-1	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	75-67	L	0%
3-3	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	83-84	W	100%
3-7	California (216.0)	P12	N	76-58	W	100%
3-8	UCLA (36.0)	P12	N	88-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stanford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stanford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stanford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stanford	P12	26.31	26.31	50.35	50.35	0.18	0.18
California	P12	5.30	5.30	25.00	25.00	-2.65	-2.65
UCLA	P12	5.21	5.21	65.52	65.52	1.62	1.62
Arizona	P12	3.84	3.84	78.12	78.12	2.16	2.16
USC	P12	3.79	3.79	68.75	68.75	1.42	1.42
Washington	P12	3.77	3.77	66.67	66.67	1.26	1.26
Arizona St.	P12	3.76	3.76	68.97	68.97	1.43	1.43
Washington St.	P12	3.69	3.69	41.38	41.38	-0.64	-0.64
Oregon	P12	2.44	2.44	66.67	66.67	0.81	0.81
Oregon St.	P12	2.43	2.43	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Colorado	P12	2.42	2.42	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Utah	P12	2.34	2.34	62.07	62.07	0.56	0.56
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Portland St.	BSky	1.73	1.73	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
San Francisco	WCC	1.69	1.69	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Long Beach St.	BW	1.68	1.68	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Montana	BSky	1.66	1.66	80.00	80.00	1.00	1.00
Cal Poly	BW	1.64	1.64	25.00	25.00	-0.82	-0.82
Pacific	WCC	1.64	1.64	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Kansas	B12	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Ohio St.	B10	1.56	1.56	74.19	74.19	0.76	0.76
Denver	Sum	1.54	1.54	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	1.54	1.54	70.59	70.59	0.63	0.63
Northeastern	CAA	1.54	1.54	70.97	70.97	0.65	0.65
Florida	SEC	1.52	1.52	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
UC Irvine	BW	0.27	0.27	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.27	0.27	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.24	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.22	0.22	14.29	14.29	-0.16	-0.16
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.22	0.22	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	84.85	84.85	0.15	0.15
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
Gonzaga	WCC	0.21	0.21	88.24	88.24	0.16	0.16
Idaho	BSky	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.18	0.18	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	16.13	16.13	-0.10	-0.10
North Dakota	BSky	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.04	0.04	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.04	0.04	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.04	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.04	0.04	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.04	0.04	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.04	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01