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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:60.0
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1260.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH70-67W100%0.0
11-15Oregon St. (181.0)P12N62-65W100%0.0
11-16Villanova (52.0)BEN55-77W100%0.0
11-23Charleston Southern (189.0)BSthH59-46W100%0.0
11-27Lamar (335.0)SlndH75-47W100%0.0
12-1Cincinnati (50.0)BEA58-56L0%0.0
12-5Dayton (114.0)A10H76-81L0%0.0
12-15Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A73-54L0%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (214.0)B12A62-66W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (137.0)ASunH59-66L0%0.0
12-30Tulane (175.0)CUSAH50-53L0%0.0
1-5Oakland (152.0)SumH65-45W100%0.0
1-8Missouri (36.0)SECA84-68L0%0.0
1-12Tennessee (59.0)SECH68-65W100%0.0
1-16Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA43-75W100%0.0
1-19Texas A&M (102.0)SECH50-49W100%0.0
1-22Kentucky (56.0)SECH59-55W100%0.0
1-26Tennessee (59.0)SECA54-53L0%0.0
1-31Arkansas (89.0)SECH59-56W100%0.0
2-2Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA54-58W100%0.0
2-6Auburn (252.0)SECA49-37L0%0.0
2-9Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH60-57W100%0.0
2-12Georgia (140.0)SECA45-52W100%0.0
2-16South Carolina (222.0)SECH68-58W100%0.0
2-20Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH64-56W100%0.0
2-23Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA97-94L0%0.0
2-26Auburn (252.0)SECH61-43W100%0.0
3-2Florida (7.0)SECA64-52L0%0.0
3-5Mississippi (47.0)SECA87-83L0%0.0
3-9Georgia (140.0)SECH61-58W100%0.0
3-15Tennessee (59.0)SECN58-48W100%0.0
3-16Florida (7.0)SECN61-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.1726.1762.1262.126.356.35
TennesseeSEC5.295.2965.5265.521.641.64
FloridaSEC3.813.8177.4277.422.092.09
GeorgiaSEC3.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC3.803.8033.3333.33-1.27-1.27
Louisiana St.SEC3.783.7862.0762.070.910.91
AuburnSEC3.713.7126.6726.67-1.73-1.73
MississippiSEC2.342.3475.7675.761.201.20
VanderbiltSEC2.322.3250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC2.272.2756.2556.250.280.28
South CarolinaSEC2.272.2745.1645.16-0.22-0.22
KentuckySEC2.262.2667.7467.740.800.80
MissouriSEC2.262.2668.7568.750.850.85
ArkansasSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
OaklandSum1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DaytonA101.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
South Dakota St.Sum1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Virginia CommonwealthA101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
MercerASun1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
VillanovaBE1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
CincinnatiBE1.591.5965.6265.620.500.50
Charleston SouthernBSth1.561.5659.2659.260.290.29
LamarSlnd1.561.5610.0010.00-1.25-1.25
Oregon St.P121.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Texas TechB121.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
TulaneCUSA1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
XavierA100.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
WinthropBSth0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
IUPUISum0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1570.3770.370.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
GeorgetownBE0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
ArizonaP120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Kansas St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
PittsburghBE0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
South FloridaBE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
GramblingSWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
OregonP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
St. LouisA100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
RutgersBE0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0785.1985.190.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
FurmanSC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0253.8553.850.000.00
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
MarylandACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00