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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:78.0
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:97



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1478.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH70-53W100%0.0
11-15Dayton (30.0)A10H72-77L0%0.0
11-18Ball St. (169.0)MACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (71.0)HorzN68-60L0%0.0
11-23Saint Louis (238.0)A10N62-57W100%0.0
11-29Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH76-46W100%0.0
12-2Texas (156.0)B12A77-68L0%0.0
12-11Oregon (9.0)P12A65-56L0%0.0
12-15USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH78-61W100%0.0
12-18Clemson (69.0)ACCN54-67L0%0.0
12-21Arkansas St. (119.0)SBN67-52W100%0.0
12-29Stetson (328.0)ASunH83-60W100%0.0
1-3Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA58-68W100%0.0
1-7Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH59-56W100%0.0
1-10Florida (10.0)SECH67-80L0%0.0
1-14LSU (193.0)SECA66-81W100%0.0
1-18Missouri (257.0)SECH68-56W100%0.0
1-21Auburn (113.0)SECA84-64L0%0.0
1-25Georgia (52.0)SECA60-80W100%0.0
1-28Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH71-62W100%0.0
2-1Arkansas (28.0)SECA87-68L0%0.0
2-4Auburn (113.0)SECH77-82L0%0.0
2-7South Carolina (42.0)SECA86-90W100%0.0
2-11Kentucky (3.0)SECH58-67L0%0.0
2-15Missouri (257.0)SECA54-57W100%0.0
2-18LSU (193.0)SECH90-72W100%0.0
2-23Georgia (52.0)SECH55-60L0%0.0
2-25Texas A&M (92.0)SECA56-53L0%0.0
3-1Mississippi (77.0)SECH70-55W100%0.0
3-4Tennessee (82.0)SECA59-54L0%0.0
3-9Mississippi St. (150.0)SECN75-55W100%0.0
3-10South Carolina (42.0)SECN53-64W100%0.0
3-11Kentucky (3.0)SECN79-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.2226.2255.5655.562.912.91
Mississippi St.SEC5.165.1655.1755.170.530.53
GeorgiaSEC3.793.7956.6756.670.500.50
AuburnSEC3.743.7453.3353.330.250.25
KentuckySEC3.723.7284.3884.382.562.56
LSUSEC3.713.7134.4834.48-1.15-1.15
South CarolinaSEC3.693.6972.4172.411.651.65
MissouriSEC3.673.6726.6726.67-1.71-1.71
MississippiSEC2.302.3062.5062.500.570.57
ArkansasSEC2.272.2772.7372.731.031.03
TennesseeSEC2.272.2746.6746.67-0.15-0.15
VanderbiltSEC2.222.2257.5857.580.340.34
FloridaSEC2.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
Texas A&MSEC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun1.641.6448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Coastal CarolinaSB1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Charleston SouthernBSth1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
Saint LouisA101.591.5937.5037.50-0.40-0.40
TexasB121.581.5831.2531.25-0.59-0.59
DaytonA101.581.5875.8675.860.820.82
StetsonASun1.571.5728.5728.57-0.67-0.67
Arkansas St.SB1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
OregonP121.561.5684.3884.381.081.08
Ball St.MAC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
North FloridaASun0.270.2736.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
LipscombASun0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
DuquesneA100.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1676.6776.670.080.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1436.0036.00-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Oregon St.P120.120.1212.9012.90-0.09-0.09
UCLAP120.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MercerSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00