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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:35
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1473.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH77-64W100%0.0
11-17Dayton (21.0)A10A80-48L0%0.0
11-20Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH105-93W100%0.0
11-26Xavier (7.0)BEN64-45L0%0.0
11-27Wichita St. (47.0)MVCN60-64W100%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (31.0)ACCN73-74W100%0.0
12-4Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
12-13Clemson (131.0)ACCA50-51W100%0.0
12-16Winthrop (130.0)BSthH72-60W100%0.0
12-21Oregon (2.0)P12H68-72L0%0.0
12-29Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH67-59W100%0.0
1-2Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH68-49W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi (96.0)SECA74-66L0%0.0
1-9Kentucky (11.0)SECH61-77L0%0.0
1-13South Carolina (65.0)SECH73-50W100%0.0
1-16Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA71-63L0%0.0
1-19Auburn (175.0)SECA83-77L0%0.0
1-23LSU (94.0)SECH70-72L0%0.0
1-26Tennessee (143.0)SECH63-57W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina (65.0)SECA78-64L0%0.0
2-2Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA80-82W100%0.0
2-6Missouri (222.0)SECH80-71W100%0.0
2-10Texas A&M (18.0)SECH63-62W100%0.0
2-13Florida (55.0)SECA55-61W100%0.0
2-17LSU (94.0)SECA69-76W100%0.0
2-20Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH61-67L0%0.0
2-23Kentucky (11.0)SECA78-53L0%0.0
2-27Auburn (175.0)SECH65-57W100%0.0
3-2Arkansas (133.0)SECH61-62L0%0.0
3-5Georgia (62.0)SECA70-63L0%0.0
3-10Mississippi (96.0)SECN73-81W100%0.0
3-11Kentucky (11.0)SECN85-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.1826.1854.7954.792.512.51
KentuckySEC5.275.2774.1974.192.552.55
LSUSEC3.773.7758.0658.060.610.61
South CarolinaSEC3.763.7675.8675.861.941.94
MississippiSEC3.733.7363.3363.331.001.00
Mississippi St.SEC3.733.7344.8344.83-0.39-0.39
AuburnSEC3.733.7334.4834.48-1.16-1.16
GeorgiaSEC2.442.4458.0658.060.390.39
TennesseeSEC2.362.3645.4545.45-0.21-0.21
Texas A&MSEC2.342.3478.7978.791.341.34
FloridaSEC2.282.2859.3859.380.430.43
VanderbiltSEC2.262.2658.0658.060.360.36
ArkansasSEC2.242.2448.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC2.222.2233.3333.33-0.74-0.74
XavierBE1.661.6683.8783.871.131.13
ClemsonACC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
DaytonA101.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
WinthropBSth1.611.6171.4371.430.690.69
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun1.611.6132.1432.14-0.57-0.57
Jacksonville St.OVC1.591.5921.4321.43-0.91-0.91
Notre DameACC1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
OregonP121.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
Southern MissCUSA1.561.5626.9226.92-0.72-0.72
Wichita St.MVC1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
Georgia TechACC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Seton HallBE0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
South AlabamaSB0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
UCLAP120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1220.8320.83-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01