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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19124.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Oklahoma (26.0)B12N82-73L0%0.0
11-14Texas Tech (121.0)B12H76-64W100%0.0
11-19Georgia St. (76.0)SBH75-58W100%0.0
11-27Duke (9.0)ACCN74-64L0%0.0
11-29Drexel (132.0)CAAN85-83L0%0.0
12-4North Florida (189.0)ASunH76-48W100%0.0
12-7South Florida (232.0)AmerA66-64L0%0.0
12-14Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH59-45W100%0.0
12-17Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH67-72L0%0.0
12-21Xavier (47.0)BEH74-77L0%0.0
12-28UCLA (14.0)P12A75-67L0%0.0
1-4Robert Morris (129.0)NECH64-56W100%0.0
1-7Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH68-63W100%0.0
1-11Georgia (74.0)SECA66-58L0%0.0
1-15Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH80-61W100%0.0
1-18Missouri (49.0)SECA68-47L0%0.0
1-23Florida (1.0)SECH62-68L0%0.0
1-25LSU (83.0)SECH82-80W100%0.0
1-30Auburn (169.0)SECA74-55L0%0.0
2-1Tennessee (42.0)SECH59-76L0%0.0
2-5Arkansas (77.0)SECA65-58L0%0.0
2-8Florida (1.0)SECA78-69L0%0.0
2-11Mississippi (94.0)SECH67-64W100%0.0
2-15South Carolina (140.0)SECA67-66L0%0.0
2-20Texas A&M (148.0)SECA63-48L0%0.0
2-22Missouri (49.0)SECH80-73W100%0.0
2-26Mississippi (94.0)SECA79-67L0%0.0
3-1Auburn (169.0)SECH73-57W100%0.0
3-4Kentucky (17.0)SECA55-48L0%0.0
3-8Arkansas (77.0)SECH83-58W100%0.0
3-13LSU (83.0)SECN68-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.0826.0830.7730.77-10.03-10.03
FloridaSEC3.903.9093.7593.753.413.41
MissouriSEC3.873.8767.7467.741.371.37
LSUSEC3.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
ArkansasSEC3.823.8266.6766.671.271.27
MississippiSEC3.803.8058.0658.060.610.61
AuburnSEC3.793.7946.4346.43-0.27-0.27
KentuckySEC2.432.4369.7069.700.960.96
TennesseeSEC2.412.4161.2961.290.540.54
South CarolinaSEC2.392.3939.3939.39-0.51-0.51
Mississippi St.SEC2.342.3443.7543.75-0.29-0.29
GeorgiaSEC2.332.3358.0658.060.380.38
VanderbiltSEC2.312.3150.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC2.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
Texas TechB121.711.7145.1645.16-0.17-0.17
UCLAP121.711.7175.7675.760.880.88
OklahomaB121.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
XavierBE1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
North FloridaASun1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB1.641.6476.6776.670.870.87
Wichita St.MVC1.641.64100.00100.001.641.64
South FloridaAmer1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
DrexelCAA1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
DukeACC1.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
Charleston SouthernBSth1.611.6134.6234.62-0.50-0.50
BaylorB120.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1730.7730.77-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1534.6234.62-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
West VirginiaB120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MemphisAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Western KentuckySB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
TCUB120.130.1324.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00