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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:30.4
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:15
Current Record:15-7
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:9.26%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-715.05.93%
22-820.721.33%
21-927.331.65%
20-1035.125.72%
19-1145.011.72%
18-1256.13.10%
17-1368.90.49%
16-1483.80.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (183.0)ASunH64-44W100%0.0
11-14Oakland (135.3)SumH74-57W100%0.0
11-17Maryland (112.8)ACCN62-42W100%0.0
11-18Wichita St. (17.4)MVCN60-70W100%0.0
11-20Purdue (65.0)B10N65-56W100%0.0
11-23Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH82-45W100%0.0
11-27Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAH72-64W100%0.0
12-1Georgetown (13.9)BEH55-57L0%0.0
12-7Dayton (77.1)A10A74-62L0%0.0
12-11Detroit (181.7)HorzH62-54W100%0.0
12-17Kansas St. (45.9)B12N71-58L0%0.0
12-21Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12N69-52W100%0.0
12-29Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH72-55W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA48-73W100%0.0
1-7Georgia (132.0)SECA59-74W100%0.0
1-11Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH69-53W100%0.0
1-14Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA56-52L0%0.0
1-19Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH59-69L0%0.0
1-21Kentucky (4.3)SECA77-71L0%0.0
1-25South Carolina (172.1)SECA56-54L0%0.0
1-28Arkansas (65.9)SECH72-66W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi (70.0)SECH69-67W100%0.0
2-7Auburn (147.6)SECA0-080%9.3
2-11Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA0-061%3.1
2-14Florida (14.9)SECH0-052%0.4
2-18Tennessee (136.4)SECH0-085%11.2
2-23Arkansas (65.9)SECA0-059%2.4
2-25Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH0-076%7.8
2-29Auburn (147.6)SECH0-093%16.1
3-3Mississippi (70.0)SECA0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.1126.1166.3068.128.529.46
Mississippi St.SEC2.523.9777.2773.061.381.83
ArkansasSEC2.623.9772.7368.221.191.45
AuburnSEC0.453.9656.5251.340.060.11
Louisiana St.SEC2.573.9661.9059.990.610.79
MississippiSEC2.583.9666.6759.580.860.76
FloridaSEC0.452.2782.6178.610.301.30
GeorgiaSEC2.472.2447.6242.62-0.12-0.33
TennesseeSEC0.342.2445.4545.68-0.03-0.19
VanderbiltSEC2.472.2268.1864.730.900.65
KentuckySEC2.532.2295.6592.322.311.88
South CarolinaSEC2.472.2138.1037.48-0.59-0.55
Georgia TechACC2.541.8740.9143.57-0.46-0.24
North FloridaASun2.371.8347.8348.29-0.10-0.06
Kansas St.B122.371.7571.4367.181.020.60
JacksonvilleASun2.321.7518.1822.78-1.48-0.95
OaklandSum2.321.7550.0051.940.000.07
DaytonA102.321.7259.0959.620.420.33
MarylandACC2.321.7261.9052.570.550.09
Oklahoma St.B122.321.7247.6242.11-0.11-0.27
DetroitHorz2.321.7250.0050.780.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC2.321.6918.7528.23-1.45-0.74
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.321.6983.3380.661.551.04
GeorgetownBE2.271.6780.0076.541.360.88
PurdueB102.271.6768.1862.600.830.42
Wichita St.MVC2.271.6786.3683.291.651.11
GramblingSWAC0.270.2615.0015.73-0.19-0.18
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.2350.0058.160.000.04
MarquetteBE0.260.2379.1775.980.150.12
South Carolina UpstateASun0.250.2254.5556.090.020.03
Miami FLACC0.250.1965.0060.020.070.04
Texas A&MB120.150.1952.3846.150.01-0.01
MichiganB100.210.1772.7366.810.100.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.178.7011.67-0.08-0.13
MercerASun0.200.1770.8371.640.080.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.1752.3857.860.010.03
KansasB120.150.1778.2678.390.090.10
Florida St.ACC0.150.1772.7371.710.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.250.1756.5255.200.030.02
BaylorB120.200.1690.9183.850.170.11
OklahomaB120.200.1659.0954.700.040.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1517.3924.41-0.12-0.08
UABCUSA0.210.1440.9139.82-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.170.1452.3852.870.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.1450.0048.900.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1452.3852.860.000.01
Seton HallBE0.090.1465.2263.740.030.04
StetsonASun0.140.1431.8231.31-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1481.8276.800.060.07
North CarolinaACC0.200.1486.9683.160.150.09
HoustonCUSA0.150.1447.6244.63-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.148.708.99-0.08-0.11
NorthwesternB100.150.1461.9055.140.040.01
XavierA100.200.1465.2263.740.060.04
Penn St.B100.150.1441.6738.67-0.02-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1219.0525.52-0.07-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1231.8242.13-0.04-0.02
St. John'sBE0.150.1243.4840.28-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.110.1269.5771.510.040.05
Notre DameBE0.150.1165.2262.650.050.03
BelmontASun0.190.1169.5773.280.080.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1152.1750.090.000.00
LipscombASun0.190.1143.4843.82-0.03-0.01
RutgersBE0.110.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1154.5548.600.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1141.6740.61-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1138.1042.78-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.100.1168.1863.990.040.03
West VirginiaBE0.160.1165.2265.170.050.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1134.7832.08-0.04-0.04
TempleA100.200.1177.2775.060.110.06
ClemsonACC0.100.1150.0048.360.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1186.3683.090.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1119.0522.37-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1173.9168.430.050.04
MissouriB120.100.1191.3087.180.090.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.1125.0023.75-0.03-0.06
TexasB120.100.1160.8761.370.020.03
Texas TechB120.150.1131.8225.98-0.06-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1147.8343.66-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1170.8364.420.060.03
AkronMAC0.140.1168.1867.910.050.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1139.1336.10-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.100.1150.0050.010.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.1186.9685.460.070.08
Western KentuckySB0.140.1134.7834.48-0.04-0.03
ArizonaP120.090.1166.6768.550.030.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1150.0051.730.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1030.0037.30-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.0956.5250.270.010.00
DePaulBE0.110.0950.0042.830.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.150.0934.7835.50-0.04-0.02
PittsburghBE0.110.0960.8758.160.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0930.0030.06-0.06-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0962.5062.060.010.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.150.0919.0521.29-0.09-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0954.1757.200.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0934.7832.06-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.0965.2263.610.040.02
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0834.7833.46-0.03-0.03
ButlerHorz0.150.0850.0050.800.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0881.8280.430.060.05
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0856.5254.220.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0862.5061.500.010.02
WoffordSC0.150.0859.0957.930.030.01
ColoradoP120.150.0866.6762.650.050.02
LouisvilleBE0.150.0878.2672.660.090.04
SamfordSC0.150.0833.3335.26-0.05-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0840.9142.96-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0830.4326.44-0.02-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0871.4373.350.020.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0873.9175.490.070.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0838.1037.86-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0843.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0852.6348.410.01-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.100.0850.0052.930.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.090.0835.0035.31-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0883.3384.760.070.06
CharlotteA100.050.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.0872.7364.430.050.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0827.7829.58-0.04-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0854.5557.690.010.01
IndianaB100.100.0875.0075.780.050.04
Old DominionCAA0.090.0860.0058.290.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6723.02-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.0040.78-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.0656.5253.100.020.00
TulaneCUSA0.120.0661.9058.590.030.01
CincinnatiBE0.110.0669.5765.470.040.02
HowardMEAC0.110.0618.1822.22-0.07-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.0624.0024.86-0.05-0.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0687.5085.410.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0656.5257.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0650.0051.530.000.00
SyracuseBE0.000.0695.8392.010.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0633.3335.97-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0655.0060.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.100.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.100.0660.8759.050.020.01
WinthropBSth0.100.0634.7834.61-0.03-0.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0676.1976.760.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0640.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0635.2939.85-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0659.0956.350.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0640.9134.50-0.01-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0640.0041.30-0.00-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.000.0657.1453.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0654.1754.750.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0641.1842.61-0.00-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0634.7835.20-0.01-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0661.9063.520.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0680.7780.750.060.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0662.5062.490.020.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0626.3228.83-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0625.0025.13-0.05-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0685.7182.180.040.04
Southern UtahSum0.050.0645.4544.30-0.00-0.01
St. LouisA100.100.0677.2777.670.050.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.2735.02-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0579.1780.100.060.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.0530.0034.15-0.04-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0569.5761.310.040.01
RadfordBSth0.100.058.7013.10-0.08-0.04
RichmondA100.050.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0534.7837.24-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0536.3639.72-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.000.0576.0072.500.000.02
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0566.6769.690.030.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0532.0035.39-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.100.0554.1749.440.01-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0542.8643.45-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.1972.910.030.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.0054.480.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.054.359.66-0.05-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.054.005.26-0.04-0.05
TroySB0.050.0528.5730.17-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0512.5013.44-0.07-0.04
AmericanPat0.050.0365.2263.790.020.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.030.01
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0373.9168.580.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.000.0368.1867.640.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
The CitadelSC0.000.039.5211.44-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0337.5038.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01
YaleIvy0.000.0372.2263.190.000.01