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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:85.0
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:55
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1485.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Towson (281.0)CAAH82-54W100%0.0
11-17Western Carolina (220.0)SCH80-74W100%0.0
11-20Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH81-67W100%0.0
11-24Iowa St. (9.0)B12N84-74L0%0.0
11-25Arizona St. (102.0)P12N76-71W100%0.0
12-2South Florida (273.0)AmerH82-71W100%0.0
12-6Xavier (30.0)BEA97-84L0%0.0
12-13Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH65-53W100%0.0
12-16Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA53-52L0%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH60-59W100%0.0
12-28UCLA (48.0)P12H56-50W100%0.0
1-2North Florida (162.0)ASunH76-61W100%0.0
1-6Texas A&M (67.0)SECH65-44W100%0.0
1-10Tennessee (96.0)SECA38-56W100%0.0
1-13South Carolina (91.0)SECA68-66L0%0.0
1-17Kentucky (1.0)SECH48-70L0%0.0
1-22Arkansas (19.0)SECA93-91L0%0.0
1-24Auburn (129.0)SECH57-55W100%0.0
1-27Florida (72.0)SECH50-52L0%0.0
1-31Kentucky (1.0)SECA70-55L0%0.0
2-4Missouri (218.0)SECH62-49W100%0.0
2-7LSU (57.0)SECA71-60L0%0.0
2-10Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA51-55W100%0.0
2-14Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH68-76L0%0.0
2-17Auburn (129.0)SECA68-79W100%0.0
2-21Georgia (38.0)SECH65-66L0%0.0
2-24South Carolina (91.0)SECH59-51W100%0.0
2-28Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA73-66L0%0.0
3-3Mississippi (60.0)SECH74-82L0%0.0
3-7Texas A&M (67.0)SECA60-61W100%0.0
3-12Florida (72.0)SECN69-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.0926.0951.1151.110.580.58
AuburnSEC3.963.9643.7543.75-0.49-0.49
KentuckySEC3.953.95100.00100.003.953.95
FloridaSEC3.903.9045.1645.16-0.38-0.38
South CarolinaSEC3.903.9050.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC3.873.8768.9768.971.471.47
VanderbiltSEC3.833.8355.1755.170.400.40
GeorgiaSEC2.362.3664.5264.520.680.68
TennesseeSEC2.342.3451.6151.610.080.08
ArkansasSEC2.342.3475.7675.761.201.20
LSUSEC2.342.3467.7467.740.830.83
MissouriSEC2.332.3326.6726.67-1.09-1.09
Mississippi St.SEC2.292.2940.0040.00-0.46-0.46
MississippiSEC2.262.2661.2961.290.510.51
North FloridaASun1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
Western CarolinaSC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Tennessee TechOVC1.691.6937.0437.04-0.44-0.44
Arizona St.P121.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Iowa St.B121.691.6975.0075.000.840.84
XavierBE1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
UCLAP121.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Southern MissCUSA1.641.6426.9226.92-0.76-0.76
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
South FloridaAmer1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
TowsonCAA1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6186.6786.671.181.18
BaylorB120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
KansasB120.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
LipscombASun0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Oregon St.P120.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
USCP120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
TroySB0.140.1429.6329.63-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.100.10
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
UtahP120.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01