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Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:72.1
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:43
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-826.10.28%
21-933.62.30%
20-1041.58.27%
19-1152.017.84%
18-1265.025.38%
17-1380.123.72%
16-1496.614.51%
15-15113.46.08%
14-16130.81.43%
13-17152.60.17%
12-18156.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Towson (274.6)CAAH82-54W100%0.0
11-17Western Carolina (251.7)SCH80-74W100%0.0
11-20Southern Miss (299.7)CUSAH81-67W100%0.0
11-24Iowa St. (25.2)B12N84-74L0%0.0
11-25Arizona St. (96.9)P12N76-71W100%0.0
12-2South Florida (232.4)AmerH82-71W100%0.0
12-6Xavier (26.2)BEA97-84L0%0.0
12-13Tennessee Tech (219.8)OVCH65-53W100%0.0
12-16Wichita St. (13.5)MVCA53-52L0%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (242.8)SBH60-59W100%0.0
12-28UCLA (92.9)P12H56-50W100%0.0
1-2North Florida (164.3)ASunH76-61W100%0.0
1-6Texas A&M (54.2)SECH65-44W100%0.0
1-10Tennessee (86.9)SECA38-56W100%0.0
1-13South Carolina (86.2)SECA68-66L0%0.0
1-17Kentucky (1.4)SECH48-70L0%0.0
1-22Arkansas (35.2)SECA93-91L0%0.0
1-24Auburn (162.8)SECH57-55W100%0.0
1-27Florida (54.7)SECH50-52L0%0.0
1-31Kentucky (1.4)SECA0-02%-23.5
2-4Missouri (192.4)SECH0-086%11.9
2-7LSU (45.5)SECA0-037%-3.7
2-10Mississippi St. (231.0)SECA0-071%6.0
2-14Vanderbilt (124.1)SECH0-063%3.6
2-17Auburn (162.8)SECA0-066%4.4
2-21Georgia (32.0)SECH0-052%0.6
2-24South Carolina (86.2)SECH0-056%1.6
2-28Vanderbilt (124.1)SECA0-038%-3.2
3-3Mississippi (54.4)SECH0-058%2.1
3-7Texas A&M (54.2)SECA0-038%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.3026.1257.5355.903.963.08
South CarolinaSEC3.043.9747.0649.65-0.18-0.03
KentuckySEC2.843.94100.0098.392.843.82
AuburnSEC2.903.9450.0040.000.00-0.79
Texas A&MSEC2.903.9477.7867.771.611.40
VanderbiltSEC0.273.9152.6353.290.010.26
GeorgiaSEC0.132.3873.6867.130.060.82
MissouriSEC0.412.3833.3330.74-0.14-0.92
LSUSEC0.292.3680.0071.040.170.99
TennesseeSEC2.972.3666.6756.040.990.29
FloridaSEC2.772.3552.6353.810.150.18
ArkansasSEC2.842.3378.9571.751.641.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.342.3342.1135.21-0.05-0.69
MississippiSEC0.272.2765.0063.790.080.63
North FloridaASun2.841.7855.5662.630.320.45
Tennessee TechOVC2.841.7544.4447.27-0.32-0.10
Iowa St.B122.771.7577.7868.361.540.64
Western CarolinaSC2.631.7538.8942.96-0.58-0.25
XavierBE2.701.7565.0064.660.810.51
Arizona St.P122.701.7555.0055.550.270.19
UCLAP122.701.7557.8953.940.430.14
Southern MissCUSA2.631.6926.6723.70-1.23-0.89
Appalachian St.SB2.631.6747.0642.48-0.15-0.25
South FloridaAmer2.631.6731.5833.00-0.97-0.57
TowsonCAA2.631.6742.1138.96-0.42-0.37
Wichita St.MVC2.631.6789.4787.652.081.25
BaylorB120.210.2273.6869.340.100.09
ColoradoP120.200.1952.6351.140.010.00
Oregon St.P120.260.1968.4260.540.100.04
LipscombASun0.140.1741.1842.82-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.270.1721.0521.27-0.16-0.10
UABCUSA0.280.1747.3749.93-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.210.1747.3751.58-0.010.01
ClemsonACC0.210.1760.0052.320.040.01
Kansas St.B120.210.1757.1446.820.03-0.01
KansasB120.270.1685.0077.530.190.09
Georgia St.SB0.290.1463.1666.660.080.05
TroySB0.160.1431.2531.44-0.06-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.145.2610.49-0.06-0.11
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1468.4260.940.050.03
TulsaAmer0.200.1478.9573.600.120.07
Seton HallBE0.190.1470.0063.300.080.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1428.5733.02-0.03-0.05
Texas TechB120.140.1452.3840.070.01-0.03
UtahP120.190.1483.3383.740.130.09
OregonP120.130.1365.0058.730.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1257.8956.260.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1242.1151.50-0.020.00
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1263.1662.030.040.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.1258.8259.230.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1152.9458.930.010.02
ElonCAA0.200.1145.0042.60-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.1161.9058.760.020.02
TulaneAmer0.140.1160.0052.530.030.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1147.0654.56-0.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.200.1152.3845.690.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.1150.0046.850.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.140.1163.6468.380.040.04
Saint LouisA100.070.1144.4437.23-0.01-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1138.8940.58-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1161.1159.740.020.02
USCP120.140.1147.3740.18-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.000.1170.0059.680.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.1145.0057.02-0.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.1165.0066.210.020.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1164.7165.470.040.03
DaytonA100.140.1184.2179.480.090.06
TexasB120.140.1170.0067.330.060.04
ArizonaP120.060.1190.4887.950.050.08
GeorgetownBE0.260.1170.0065.320.100.03
MarquetteBE0.190.1150.0044.400.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.130.1155.0045.900.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.200.1180.9576.520.120.06
ProvidenceBE0.130.1175.0065.020.070.03
StanfordP120.130.1175.0071.410.060.05
UTEPCUSA0.140.0963.1668.500.040.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0916.6723.31-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.230.0922.2226.60-0.13-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.0922.2240.77-0.11-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0961.1162.910.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0990.4885.060.060.06
DrexelCAA0.150.0931.5832.45-0.05-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0926.3226.62-0.07-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0961.1166.610.030.03
FurmanSC0.140.0923.5328.46-0.08-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0941.1847.56-0.03-0.00
UMKCWAC0.140.0931.5838.41-0.05-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0944.4443.32-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.200.0920.0021.30-0.12-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0971.4369.460.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.0821.0530.50-0.11-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0850.0051.380.000.00
DetroitHorz0.190.0840.0042.29-0.04-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0855.0053.280.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0857.1462.500.000.02
TempleAmer0.130.0866.6763.830.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.200.0861.1160.440.040.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0826.3229.12-0.06-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.0840.0048.18-0.03-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0870.5975.630.030.04
SMUAmer0.200.0880.0077.750.120.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0885.0075.810.050.04
William & MaryCAA0.130.0861.1164.900.030.02
YaleIvy0.070.0864.7164.150.020.02
ButlerBE0.130.0871.4370.620.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0873.6872.660.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.0845.4540.73-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.190.0842.1151.95-0.030.00
Montana St.BSky0.140.0816.6719.89-0.09-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0673.6872.620.040.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0643.7543.15-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.1662.940.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0635.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0025.63-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0638.1045.39-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0638.8943.44-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0611.7619.36-0.05-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8642.74-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0625.0037.83-0.07-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.150.0635.2933.17-0.04-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0678.9579.620.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0670.5967.510.000.02
IowaB100.140.0665.0063.250.040.02
AkronMAC0.070.0668.4263.640.030.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0633.3335.62-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0628.5727.73-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.0647.0648.27-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0675.0069.810.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0660.0060.080.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0645.0044.02-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.0657.8958.350.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0631.5834.35-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0615.0023.69-0.05-0.03
SamfordSC0.070.0636.3636.07-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0638.1036.84-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0643.7545.80-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0629.4131.68-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0616.6722.15-0.05-0.03
VMISC0.000.0631.5837.72-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0673.6873.930.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.0678.9580.940.080.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0061.600.020.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0657.1454.370.010.00
OaklandHorz0.140.0640.0043.68-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0652.9452.570.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.065.5611.57-0.12-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.0625.0025.38-0.06-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0620.0022.29-0.04-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0633.3331.57-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0650.0050.690.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0640.0037.06-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0659.0958.280.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0610.0015.23-0.06-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0063.010.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0623.0835.92-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0659.0956.180.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.6464.390.020.02
PennIvy0.000.0633.3334.33-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0647.6238.09-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0642.1139.25-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0657.8956.480.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0647.0651.86-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0635.0034.45-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0595.0094.600.060.05
MarylandB100.130.0585.7177.600.090.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0521.4339.73-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0531.5844.71-0.03-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0538.8942.63-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0568.4266.040.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0553.3356.000.000.01
DePaulBE0.130.0552.3843.960.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0547.3750.37-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0585.0078.450.050.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0542.1147.16-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.130.0545.0045.99-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0563.1658.150.000.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0590.0084.550.050.04
Wake ForestACC0.130.0542.8638.96-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0063.190.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0547.3738.08-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0343.7540.97-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0361.1160.430.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0372.2268.860.040.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0325.0028.06-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0357.8956.230.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.63-0.07-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.7617.58-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0350.0043.540.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0335.2935.02-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0358.8257.890.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0053.490.000.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0376.1969.640.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0340.0038.72-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0363.1657.290.020.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0350.0061.990.000.01
OhioMAC0.070.0338.8935.54-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0345.0037.54-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0345.0046.63-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0376.4771.620.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0314.2915.28-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0310.5319.81-0.05-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0333.3334.41-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0361.9060.270.000.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0337.5037.57-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0352.3854.030.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0320.0027.27-0.04-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0335.0035.75-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0347.3749.55-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0347.3741.05-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0361.9066.000.000.01
UMBCAE0.070.0314.2916.99-0.05-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0357.8955.900.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0079.170.000.02
VCUA100.070.0385.0082.100.050.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0364.2967.500.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0333.3331.74-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0338.1043.87-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0344.4449.87-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0052.160.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0364.2965.390.020.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0371.4374.820.030.01
IUPUISum0.060.0338.1040.98-0.01-0.00
LehighPat0.060.0347.3750.38-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0352.6353.060.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.0066.060.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0314.2917.10-0.05-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0357.8956.300.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0316.6725.24-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0382.3584.880.040.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0338.8936.54-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0355.0055.350.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0335.2938.37-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0335.2941.48-0.00-0.00