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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:69.6
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:18
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-929.30.03%
20-1032.00.96%
19-1142.45.62%
18-1254.819.56%
17-1366.833.39%
16-1479.028.12%
15-1592.910.97%
14-16108.11.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kennesaw St. (283.4)ASunH77-64W100%0.0
11-17Dayton (13.7)A10A80-48L0%0.0
11-20Louisiana Lafayette (102.1)SBH105-93W100%0.0
11-26Xavier (9.7)BEN64-45L0%0.0
11-27Wichita St. (35.2)MVCN60-64W100%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (31.3)ACCN73-74W100%0.0
12-4Southern Miss (297.1)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
12-13Clemson (108.3)ACCA50-51W100%0.0
12-16Winthrop (161.3)BSthH72-60W100%0.0
12-21Oregon (6.2)P12H68-72L0%0.0
12-29Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCH67-59W100%0.0
1-2Norfolk St. (207.6)MEACH68-49W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi (113.8)SECA74-66L0%0.0
1-9Kentucky (17.0)SECH61-77L0%0.0
1-13South Carolina (39.1)SECH73-50W100%0.0
1-16Vanderbilt (53.4)SECA71-63L0%0.0
1-19Auburn (167.3)SECA83-77L0%0.0
1-23LSU (86.5)SECH70-72L0%0.0
1-26Tennessee (112.5)SECH63-57W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina (39.1)SECA78-64L0%0.0
2-2Mississippi St. (162.2)SECA80-82W100%0.0
2-6Missouri (222.4)SECH80-71W100%0.0
2-10Texas A&M (27.5)SECH63-62W100%0.0
2-13Florida (23.5)SECA0-014%-11.6
2-17LSU (86.5)SECA0-029%-6.0
2-20Mississippi St. (162.2)SECH0-060%2.8
2-23Kentucky (17.0)SECA0-010%-13.8
2-27Auburn (167.3)SECH0-079%8.9
3-2Arkansas (106.1)SECH0-050%0.1
3-5Georgia (86.1)SECA0-036%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC26.1726.1158.5954.664.492.44
South CarolinaSEC4.813.9690.4882.603.892.58
LSUSEC2.593.9360.8757.250.560.57
AuburnSEC2.633.9136.3633.68-0.72-1.28
KentuckySEC2.493.9173.9171.071.191.65
Mississippi St.SEC2.543.9145.4545.48-0.23-0.35
GeorgiaSEC0.562.3859.0954.850.100.23
TennesseeSEC2.552.3552.1749.730.11-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.462.3550.0053.050.000.14
VanderbiltSEC2.632.3556.5258.640.340.41
MississippiSEC2.542.3260.8757.570.550.35
MissouriSEC2.592.3234.7831.29-0.79-0.87
FloridaSEC0.412.3266.6765.680.140.73
Texas A&MSEC2.502.3278.2677.851.411.29
ClemsonACC2.311.7860.8760.410.500.37
XavierBE2.311.7886.9681.221.711.11
DaytonA102.261.7586.3681.551.651.10
WinthropBSth2.221.7270.0066.330.890.56
Norfolk St.MEAC2.271.7245.4552.45-0.210.08
Kennesaw St.ASun2.221.7226.0927.36-1.06-0.78
Jacksonville St.OVC2.231.7025.0025.02-1.11-0.85
Notre DameACC2.221.6973.9170.271.060.69
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.171.6763.1664.640.570.49
OregonP122.171.6778.2676.421.230.88
Southern MissCUSA2.171.6731.5832.98-0.80-0.57
Wichita St.MVC2.171.6777.2779.541.190.98
Wake ForestACC0.230.2241.6739.90-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.190.2082.6177.580.130.11
Georgia TechACC0.090.1954.1752.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.1842.8641.34-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1750.0048.950.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.180.1762.5064.120.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1766.6763.300.050.04
South AlabamaSB0.150.1536.3636.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.230.1521.7422.42-0.13-0.08
Seton HallBE0.140.1470.8368.080.060.05
UCLAP120.140.1456.5253.400.020.01
DePaulBE0.230.1433.3334.02-0.08-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1443.4845.21-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.140.1479.1775.990.080.07
Arizona St.P120.180.1454.1751.700.020.00
St. John'sBE0.230.1425.0023.45-0.12-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1227.2727.80-0.07-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1257.1457.670.010.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.210.1272.7370.520.090.05
Georgia St.SB0.150.1255.0053.670.020.01
TroySB0.150.1222.7324.38-0.08-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1262.5063.450.040.03
Arkansas St.SB0.200.1240.9138.82-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.150.1283.3379.820.100.07
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1272.0073.080.060.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1247.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.140.1228.0030.49-0.06-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1237.5037.41-0.02-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1283.3383.710.090.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1168.1865.170.050.03
MemphisAmer0.190.1158.3359.310.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1150.0052.870.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.1156.0054.080.010.01
NJITASun0.140.1156.0055.640.020.01
USCP120.140.1178.2673.130.080.05
MercerSC0.090.1166.6767.110.030.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1125.0033.23-0.07-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.1150.0049.320.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1129.1726.69-0.04-0.05
ColoradoP120.140.1170.8365.580.060.03
BaylorB120.140.1173.9168.450.060.04
Kansas St.B120.140.1158.3356.290.020.01
DukeACC0.140.1175.0071.840.070.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1164.0057.890.040.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.1117.6526.67-0.06-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1141.6742.39-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1120.0019.73-0.08-0.07
High PointBSth0.050.0957.1459.870.010.02
LibertyBSth0.150.0934.7836.53-0.05-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.0954.1754.200.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0959.0961.280.020.02
UTSACUSA0.100.0913.0412.96-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0952.1753.440.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0950.0049.480.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.8343.78-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.130.0968.0066.640.050.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0968.1867.730.020.03
TulaneAmer0.100.0936.0034.84-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.140.0912.0011.95-0.11-0.07
IowaB100.140.0979.1778.880.080.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.7832.39-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.140.0966.6764.700.050.03
UtahP120.140.0970.8368.520.060.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0822.2231.22-0.06-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0865.2264.340.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.130.0852.0048.920.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0827.2726.45-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0850.0050.500.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0838.1037.67-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0813.0415.26-0.10-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0845.4554.18-0.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.460.060.05
ButlerBE0.090.0870.8369.000.040.03
MassachusettsA100.140.0843.4842.40-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.8342.30-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0861.9065.330.010.03
StanfordP120.050.0847.6244.06-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.140.0868.0064.090.050.02
Texas TechB120.050.0860.8755.310.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0854.1753.810.010.01
WoffordSC0.140.0845.8348.12-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.090.0882.6179.200.060.05
CampbellBSth0.050.0631.8232.08-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0621.7424.60-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.1754.100.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0625.0028.15-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0686.3684.220.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0645.4549.05-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0631.8232.46-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0627.2728.16-0.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.88-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.350.020.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0628.5733.30-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0623.8125.49-0.05-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0658.3363.180.020.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.28-0.06-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0656.0055.450.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0673.0872.610.040.03
StetsonASun0.050.0622.7327.39-0.02-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.180.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0625.0025.08-0.05-0.03
SamfordSC0.090.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0626.0927.89-0.05-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.110.000.00
IndianaB100.090.0680.0075.690.050.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0652.1755.070.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0619.0525.90-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.040.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0672.0071.570.040.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0631.8235.12-0.03-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0669.5770.020.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.75-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.11-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0666.6764.780.030.02
CreightonBE0.050.0664.0062.070.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.0416.42-0.07-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.270.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0654.5555.550.000.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0685.0083.440.030.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.770.030.02
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.30-0.06-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0634.7833.02-0.03-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0680.0081.160.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.380.060.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0672.7367.600.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.130.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0658.3357.250.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0672.7370.410.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.75-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.850.030.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0631.8234.54-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.870.010.00
ArizonaP120.090.0579.1778.290.050.03
George MasonA100.090.0533.3333.63-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0575.0071.960.050.02
IllinoisB100.090.0545.8344.07-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0564.0064.460.010.02
RichmondA100.000.0556.5255.820.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0583.3381.280.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0582.6183.010.060.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0573.0873.780.020.03
AmericanPat0.050.0529.1731.19-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0556.0056.510.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0560.8758.900.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0579.1777.510.050.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.8367.980.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.0055.560.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0586.9682.620.030.04
PurdueB100.050.0580.0077.910.030.03
TexasB120.090.0566.6762.200.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.40-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.900.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.070.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.1455.360.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.0912.26-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.05-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.039.5212.09-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0365.3865.510.000.01
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.470.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0326.9228.60-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.130.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.440.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.170.010.00
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.690.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0356.0054.430.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.750.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0360.8762.470.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0352.1751.830.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0337.5037.69-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
VCUA100.000.0370.8371.050.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.64-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0382.6181.140.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.4543.87-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.970.020.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0081.560.000.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0358.3358.580.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.90-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.370.020.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.730.010.00
VermontAE0.000.0352.0054.860.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01