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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Alabama

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:119.3
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:201
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-625.00.01%
23-728.20.04%
22-834.90.23%
21-944.70.68%
20-1054.22.04%
19-1165.75.23%
18-1279.69.93%
17-1394.314.80%
16-14110.317.84%
15-15126.817.83%
14-16144.214.86%
13-17162.29.18%
12-18181.04.75%
11-19201.31.79%
10-20219.60.67%
9-21235.90.09%
8-22254.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Coastal Carolina (218.5)SBH70-53W100%0.0
11-15Dayton (38.8)A10H72-77L0%0.0
11-18Ball St. (226.5)MACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (72.3)HorzN68-60L0%0.0
11-23Saint Louis (286.5)A10N62-57W100%0.0
11-29Charleston Southern (260.2)BSthH76-46W100%0.0
12-2Texas (118.2)B12A77-68L0%0.0
12-11Oregon (31.0)P12A0-018%-10.8
12-15USC Upstate (262.6)ASunH0-094%19.1
12-18Clemson (72.1)ACCH0-050%-0.1
12-21Arkansas St. (78.4)SBN0-063%4.0
12-29Stetson (323.3)ASunH0-097%22.9
1-3Mississippi St. (155.0)SECA0-055%1.6
1-7Vanderbilt (74.8)SECH0-056%1.7
1-10Florida (11.5)SECH0-028%-6.9
1-14LSU (101.1)SECA0-047%-1.0
1-18Missouri (170.4)SECH0-070%6.3
1-21Auburn (86.4)SECA0-041%-2.9
1-25Georgia (71.0)SECA0-034%-4.8
1-28Mississippi St. (155.0)SECH0-074%7.9
2-1Arkansas (35.0)SECA0-024%-8.4
2-4Auburn (86.4)SECH0-061%3.4
2-7South Carolina (20.6)SECA0-018%-11.1
2-11Kentucky (10.0)SECH0-017%-11.6
2-15Missouri (170.4)SECA0-050%0.0
2-18LSU (101.1)SECH0-067%5.2
2-23Georgia (71.0)SECH0-055%1.5
2-25Texas A&M (43.5)SECA0-022%-9.4
3-1Mississippi (121.1)SECH0-071%6.5
3-4Tennessee (112.4)SECA0-041%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlabamaSEC28.5226.1148.2848.20-0.98-0.94
AuburnSEC0.004.0385.7157.840.000.63
GeorgiaSEC0.003.9957.1451.550.000.12
LSUSEC0.003.9471.4348.010.00-0.16
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.9175.0048.410.00-0.12
MissouriSEC0.003.9162.5045.180.00-0.38
MississippiSEC0.002.3575.0048.610.00-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.002.3587.5068.810.000.89
South CarolinaSEC0.002.35100.0078.040.001.32
KentuckySEC0.002.3387.5082.190.001.50
TennesseeSEC0.002.3250.0044.190.00-0.27
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3271.4365.030.000.70
VanderbiltSEC0.002.3055.5646.850.00-0.14
FloridaSEC0.002.3077.7872.970.001.06
USC UpstateASun0.711.8144.4442.93-0.08-0.26
Coastal CarolinaSB7.141.7828.5740.37-3.06-0.34
Charleston SouthernBSth7.141.7525.0040.04-3.57-0.35
Saint LouisA107.591.7528.5724.79-3.25-0.88
ClemsonACC0.001.7571.4354.710.000.16
TexasB127.141.7542.8636.69-1.02-0.47
ValparaisoHorz7.591.7583.3374.395.060.85
DaytonA107.141.7566.6772.322.380.78
StetsonASun0.001.7325.0027.33-0.00-0.78
Arkansas St.SB0.001.7275.0067.120.000.59
OregonP120.511.7275.0072.500.260.78
Ball St.MAC8.101.7257.1451.901.160.07
North FloridaASun0.000.3112.5034.49-0.00-0.10
LipscombASun0.000.2011.1132.47-0.00-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1950.0061.350.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.450.1862.5071.850.110.08
Texas TechB120.000.1687.5061.660.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1671.4348.030.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1557.1471.170.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1485.7162.500.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1471.4357.210.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1416.6730.09-0.00-0.06
Little RockSB0.000.1466.6761.400.000.03
VCUA100.000.1475.0072.930.000.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1471.4363.080.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1462.5074.160.000.07
Wake ForestACC0.450.1477.7855.180.250.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.450.1462.5067.590.110.05
DavidsonA100.000.1471.4362.990.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1457.1436.370.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1420.0042.14-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.1440.0039.19-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1475.0070.350.000.06
KansasB120.000.1488.8977.470.000.07
TCUB120.000.14100.0060.950.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.1242.8639.64-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1228.5724.39-0.00-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1262.5060.090.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1225.0030.02-0.00-0.05
NJITASun0.000.1244.4451.58-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.510.1250.0071.340.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1233.3351.98-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.1237.5044.87-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.450.1266.6761.690.150.03
Florida St.ACC0.710.1188.8967.470.560.04
Rhode IslandA100.510.1166.6770.400.170.05
Coppin St.MEAC1.400.110.0017.16-1.40-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3379.920.000.07
ChattanoogaSC0.450.1175.0074.590.220.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5642.150.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.450.1116.6729.83-0.30-0.04
Southern UtahBSky1.850.110.0025.31-1.85-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.1177.7870.290.000.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1185.7177.000.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1125.0023.62-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1120.0017.37-0.00-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1128.5731.07-0.00-0.04
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.650.000.08
BaylorB120.000.11100.0076.070.000.06
Kansas St.B120.450.1188.8956.710.350.01
MercerSC0.000.1142.8647.68-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0928.5734.49-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0021.92-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.600.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0955.5649.660.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0985.7175.800.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0942.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0044.180.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0850.0042.770.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0842.8636.07-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.080.0034.69-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC1.400.0862.5067.080.350.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0850.0056.890.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0837.5061.81-0.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0837.5028.47-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0026.22-0.00-0.04
USCP120.000.08100.0076.400.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.880.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0862.5046.490.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0857.1456.540.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0871.4358.170.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.34-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.450.0875.0062.450.220.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.450.0857.1449.640.06-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0875.0075.180.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0877.7864.250.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0036.38-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.450.0877.7886.650.250.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.760.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0842.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.980.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.250.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.0888.8966.920.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0055.480.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0071.330.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.010.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.840.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.430.0640.0054.81-0.290.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0662.5050.630.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.05-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.02
NebraskaB100.510.0657.1444.830.07-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.510.0633.3336.67-0.17-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.450.0675.0066.090.220.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.500.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0637.5048.85-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0666.6751.140.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.450.0642.8650.98-0.060.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0662.5066.500.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.600.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.450.0537.5025.74-0.11-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.08-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0590.0080.060.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0092.200.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.200.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0587.5075.690.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0056.270.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0577.7866.740.000.02
MichiganB100.450.0577.7865.840.250.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0048.70-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0557.1459.020.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.79-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0054.480.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0557.1464.500.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5075.730.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.420.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0055.44-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5030.11-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.41-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.510.0362.5058.130.130.00
PortlandWCC0.510.0357.1450.730.070.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.510.03100.0089.590.510.02
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.31-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0043.29-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.1443.930.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.450.0333.3351.57-0.150.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0377.7872.210.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.140.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.42-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.450.0371.4355.680.190.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0355.5643.870.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.450.0325.0042.78-0.22-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
SamfordSC0.450.0362.5056.520.110.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01