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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:129.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:213
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13129.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Penn St. (101.0)B10A81-87W100%0.0
11-14Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA74-51L0%0.0
11-19Grand Canyon (131.0)WACN82-77L0%0.0
11-20Brown (284.0)IvyN80-76W100%0.0
11-27Siena (122.0)MAACH81-72W100%0.0
11-30Holy Cross (204.0)PatH49-55L0%0.0
12-3Yale (128.0)IvyA59-55L0%0.0
12-7Marist (276.0)MAACH78-66W100%0.0
12-10Colgate (294.0)PatA66-74W100%0.0
12-12Canisius (171.0)MAACA77-64L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH87-60W100%0.0
12-20SMU (13.0)AmerA71-53L0%0.0
12-30Columbia (262.0)IvyA67-70W100%0.0
1-2Cornell (270.0)IvyH69-59W100%0.0
1-5UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA85-79L0%0.0
1-8Stony Brook (176.0)AEA72-70L0%0.0
1-11New Hampshire (127.0)AEH67-75L0%0.0
1-16UMBC (165.0)AEA50-77W100%0.0
1-19Binghamton (311.0)AEH84-65W100%0.0
1-22Maine (322.0)AEH81-63W100%0.0
1-25Vermont (46.0)AEH49-60L0%0.0
1-28Hartford (327.0)AEA61-74W100%0.0
2-1UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH90-77W100%0.0
2-4Stony Brook (176.0)AEH65-72L0%0.0
2-6New Hampshire (127.0)AEA55-69W100%0.0
2-9Binghamton (311.0)AEA54-66W100%0.0
2-15UMBC (165.0)AEH78-69W100%0.0
2-19Maine (322.0)AEA56-74W100%0.0
2-22Vermont (46.0)AEA62-50L0%0.0
2-25Hartford (327.0)AEH80-62W100%0.0
3-1Hartford (327.0)AEH100-71W100%0.0
3-6Stony Brook (176.0)AEA56-63W100%0.0
3-11Vermont (46.0)AEA56-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.5026.5063.2363.237.017.01
VermontAE5.525.5283.3383.333.683.68
Stony BrookAE5.455.4557.1457.140.780.78
HartfordAE5.375.3731.0331.03-2.04-2.04
MaineAE4.024.0220.6920.69-2.36-2.36
New HampshireAE4.014.0159.2659.260.740.74
BinghamtonAE3.993.9933.3333.33-1.33-1.33
UMass LowellAE3.923.9232.1432.14-1.40-1.40
UMBCAE3.923.9261.5461.540.900.90
BrownIvy1.881.8840.7440.74-0.35-0.35
CornellIvy1.831.8325.9325.93-0.88-0.88
MaristMAAC1.821.8225.8125.81-0.88-0.88
ColumbiaIvy1.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
YaleIvy1.821.8259.2659.260.340.34
SienaMAAC1.701.7051.5251.520.050.05
ColgatePat1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
Holy CrossPat1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
CanisiusMAAC1.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
CincinnatiAmer1.631.6384.8584.851.141.14
Penn St.B101.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
SMUAmer1.581.5887.8887.881.201.20
St. Francis NYNEC1.571.5710.3410.34-1.24-1.24
Grand CanyonWAC1.561.5667.8667.860.560.56
DartmouthIvy0.490.4925.9325.93-0.23-0.23
QuinnipiacMAAC0.410.4132.2632.26-0.14-0.14
HarvardIvy0.340.3461.5461.540.080.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.330.3320.6920.69-0.19-0.19
NavyPat0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.250.2578.5778.570.140.14
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2430.3030.30-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2240.6240.62-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.220.2262.5062.500.060.06
LehighPat0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
PennIvy0.220.2246.4346.43-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
RiderMAAC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
ArmyPat0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.030.03
HoustonAmer0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.160.1664.7164.710.050.05
BryantNEC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
DuquesneA100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.070.07
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ButlerBE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01