live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:96.1
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:274
Current Record:19-7
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:9-3
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-3
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-782.029.68%
22-898.454.35%
21-9113.315.02%
20-10131.20.95%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kentucky (17.0)SECA78-65L0%0.0
11-16Boston University (186.5)PatA69-64L0%0.0
11-19Colgate (228.0)PatH88-67W100%0.0
11-24South Florida (246.6)AmerA63-61L0%0.0
11-27NJIT (184.9)ASunH74-73W100%0.0
11-29Yale (56.9)IvyH88-54W100%0.0
12-1Quinnipiac (281.8)MAACA54-58W100%0.0
12-5Holy Cross (285.9)PatA84-88W100%0.0
12-9Marist (312.6)MAACA53-75W100%0.0
12-12Siena (95.6)MAACA78-70L0%0.0
12-19St. Francis PA (226.5)NECH65-58W100%0.0
12-23Niagara (307.1)MAACH65-56W100%0.0
12-29St. Francis NY (285.0)NECA66-71W100%0.0
1-2Cornell (207.9)IvyA70-75W100%0.0
1-6UMBC (321.1)AEH73-59W100%0.0
1-9Vermont (160.3)AEA57-69W100%0.0
1-12New Hampshire (183.1)AEH80-75W100%0.0
1-15Maine (310.3)AEA81-79L0%0.0
1-18Binghamton (298.5)AEH80-59W100%0.0
1-22Stony Brook (41.9)AEA69-63L0%0.0
1-27UMass Lowell (253.4)AEH75-63W100%0.0
1-30Hartford (319.5)AEA60-86W100%0.0
2-3UMBC (321.1)AEA73-79W100%0.0
2-6Vermont (160.3)AEH75-71W100%0.0
2-8Binghamton (298.5)AEA56-69W100%0.0
2-11New Hampshire (183.1)AEA69-68L0%0.0
2-14Maine (310.3)AEH0-096%19.4
2-17Stony Brook (41.9)AEH0-040%-2.8
2-24UMass Lowell (253.4)AEA0-081%9.5
2-27Hartford (319.5)AEH0-097%19.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.3726.3281.5880.0716.6515.83
HartfordAE2.734.2925.0026.18-1.36-2.04
VermontAE4.534.2956.5258.780.590.75
BinghamtonAE4.584.2626.0928.40-2.19-1.84
UMass LowellAE2.684.2339.1339.85-0.58-0.86
New HampshireAE4.474.2260.0057.420.890.63
UMBCAE4.414.2125.0027.65-2.20-1.88
MaineAE2.724.2029.1729.63-1.13-1.71
Stony BrookAE2.624.1681.8283.241.672.77
Boston UniversityPat2.372.0754.1755.010.200.21
QuinnipiacMAAC2.312.0636.3636.22-0.63-0.57
Holy CrossPat2.292.0143.4841.00-0.30-0.36
NJITASun2.332.0158.3357.630.390.31
ColgatePat2.331.9845.4546.56-0.21-0.14
NiagaraMAAC2.241.9525.0025.43-1.12-0.96
SienaMAAC2.251.9264.0063.810.630.53
MaristMAAC2.191.9222.7325.12-1.20-0.95
CornellIvy2.171.9044.4441.79-0.24-0.31
YaleIvy2.131.8777.7877.491.181.03
St. Francis NYNEC2.041.8141.6744.99-0.34-0.18
St. Francis PANEC2.081.8154.5553.750.190.14
KentuckySEC2.041.7573.9171.700.970.76
South FloridaAmer2.041.7516.6717.05-1.36-1.15
DartmouthIvy0.330.3831.5831.68-0.12-0.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.410.3812.5013.27-0.30-0.28
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.370.3440.9143.32-0.07-0.04
BrownIvy0.400.3331.5831.01-0.15-0.12
AmericanPat0.370.3329.1731.19-0.15-0.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.330.3233.3336.31-0.11-0.09
ArmyPat0.320.3254.1754.290.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.270.3133.3335.18-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.290.2939.1342.83-0.06-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.330.2842.3144.53-0.05-0.03
RiderMAAC0.240.2840.0042.04-0.05-0.04
LafayettePat0.330.2620.8321.68-0.19-0.15
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.2650.0051.280.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2554.1754.090.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.330.2580.0081.160.200.16
ManhattanMAAC0.270.2545.4543.23-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.210.2435.0038.57-0.06-0.05
BryantNEC0.300.2324.0024.92-0.15-0.12
WagnerNEC0.200.2360.8762.520.040.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2342.3146.12-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.310.2364.0064.460.090.07
IonaMAAC0.200.2260.8760.670.040.05
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2166.6765.240.080.07
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2129.1726.69-0.09-0.10
ConnecticutAmer0.170.2170.8370.130.070.08
BucknellPat0.200.2052.1754.940.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.1972.2274.700.040.09
PennIvy0.130.1838.8937.69-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.230.1772.7370.410.100.07
Notre DameACC0.120.1570.8367.930.050.05
SMUAmer0.210.1586.9682.920.160.10
NortheasternCAA0.160.1548.0048.60-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.120.1462.5064.120.030.04
St. John'sBE0.190.1425.0023.45-0.09-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.080.1258.3359.970.010.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1252.1753.720.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1226.9228.60-0.06-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1147.8348.57-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.150.1156.5257.060.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1121.7424.60-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.120.1179.1775.990.070.06
FloridaSEC0.120.1166.6766.320.040.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0966.6766.770.030.03
FordhamA100.080.0952.3850.690.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.120.0965.2260.600.040.02
DukeACC0.130.0875.0071.840.060.04
HowardMEAC0.120.0836.3638.97-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0872.0069.130.030.03
DuquesneA100.120.0860.8756.270.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.0829.1733.75-0.05-0.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.7832.39-0.02-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0635.0034.83-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0645.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0654.1752.000.010.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.0064.090.030.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0664.0062.090.010.01
RutgersB100.040.0621.7420.34-0.02-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0650.0052.870.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0628.0030.49-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0664.0057.890.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0680.0081.560.050.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0665.3865.510.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0622.7327.39-0.04-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.040.0621.7422.42-0.02-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0625.0024.93-0.04-0.03
KansasB120.080.0682.6179.200.050.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0640.0043.39-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0680.0077.910.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.980.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0550.0045.770.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0528.5734.11-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0572.0071.570.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0541.6739.49-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0570.8367.980.030.02
LSUSEC0.040.0562.5059.080.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0558.3359.310.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0527.2726.45-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0586.9680.420.030.03
TempleAmer0.040.0565.2262.370.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0550.0048.130.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0562.5057.730.020.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0536.0034.84-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0550.0044.650.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.63-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.660.030.02
TCUB120.040.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.23-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0363.6458.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0358.3357.250.010.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.53-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0052.940.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.960.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0359.0955.160.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.080.000.00
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.940.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.040.0333.3330.28-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.560.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.180.010.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0352.1754.100.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0383.3381.280.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0370.8368.080.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
TroySB0.040.0322.7324.38-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6764.700.000.01
UABCUSA0.040.0383.3379.820.030.02
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.400.010.00
WisconsinB100.040.0362.5057.000.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0354.1753.810.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01