Albany

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	130.0
Current RPI:	130
Expected SOS:	279
Current SOS:	279
Current Record:	24-10
Expected Record:	24-10
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-1
Current OOC Record:	12-3
Expected OOC Record:	12-3
Expected OOC RPI:	108
Expected OOC SOS:	313

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-10	130.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	H	69-66	W	100%
11-11	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	82-60	L	0%
11-13	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	62-63	W	100%
11-17	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	N	62-59	W	100%
11-18	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	N	64-67	L	0%
11-20	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	55-83	W	100%
11-26	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	66-63	W	100%
12-1	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	56-69	W	100%
12-5	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	77-73	W	100%
12-8	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	61-67	W	100%
12-12	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	H	70-61	W	100%
12-21	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	57-59	L	0%
12-28	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	61-71	W	100%
12-31	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	57-50	W	100%
1-2	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	65-48	W	100%
1-5	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	70-45	L	0%
1-7	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	59-71	W	100%
1-12	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	76-63	W	100%
1-16	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	62-68	W	100%
1-19	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	46-56	W	100%
1-23	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	80-85	L	0%
1-26	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	43-50	L	0%
1-29	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	49-65	L	0%
2-2	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	79-46	W	100%
2-6	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	56-79	W	100%
2-9	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	66-52	L	0%
2-16	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	75-49	W	100%
2-20	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	79-69	L	0%
2-23	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	50-58	W	100%
2-28	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	56-49	W	100%
3-3	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	75-70	L	0%
3-9	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	50-49	W	100%
3-10	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	61-59	W	100%
3-16	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	49-53	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Albany	AE	26.57	26.57	71.08	71.08	11.20	11.20
Vermont	AE	5.36	5.36	65.52	65.52	1.66	1.66
Maine	AE	5.30	5.30	34.62	34.62	-1.63	-1.63
Stony Brook	AE	5.28	5.28	77.78	77.78	2.93	2.93
Binghamton	AE	3.95	3.95	7.41	7.41	-3.37	-3.37
MD Baltimore County	AE	3.93	3.93	25.00	25.00	-1.96	-1.96
New Hampshire	AE	3.90	3.90	30.77	30.77	-1.50	-1.50
Hartford	AE	3.86	3.86	60.71	60.71	0.83	0.83
Boston University	AE	3.80	3.80	55.56	55.56	0.42	0.42
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.94	2.94	15.38	15.38	-2.04	-2.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.81	1.81	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Siena	MAAC	1.73	1.73	25.81	25.81	-0.84	-0.84
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.69	1.69	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.68	1.68	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Brown	Ivy	1.67	1.67	46.15	46.15	-0.13	-0.13
Colgate	Pat	1.67	1.67	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Navy	Pat	1.59	1.59	24.14	24.14	-0.82	-0.82
Fairfield	MAAC	1.56	1.56	57.58	57.58	0.24	0.24
Duquesne	A10	1.55	1.55	27.59	27.59	-0.69	-0.69
Wagner	NEC	1.54	1.54	63.33	63.33	0.41	0.41
Ohio St.	B10	1.52	1.52	78.12	78.12	0.85	0.85
Washington	P12	1.52	1.52	56.25	56.25	0.19	0.19
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.49	1.49	23.33	23.33	-0.80	-0.80
Marist	MAAC	0.38	0.38	32.26	32.26	-0.13	-0.13
Canisius	MAAC	0.38	0.38	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.34	0.34	31.03	31.03	-0.13	-0.13
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.34	0.34	43.33	43.33	-0.05	-0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.32	0.32	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.30	0.30	59.38	59.38	0.06	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.27	0.27	29.63	29.63	-0.11	-0.11
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.27	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.25	0.25	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Army	Pat	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.24	0.24	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.21	0.21	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
American	Pat	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Lehigh	Pat	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.04	0.04	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.04	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.02	0.02	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01