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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:185.0
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:284
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14185.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Siena (193.0)MAACA62-74W100%0.0
11-12NJIT (308.0)indH71-65W100%0.0
11-16Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA79-69L0%0.0
11-20Duquesne (187.0)A10A70-59L0%0.0
11-23Bucknell (167.0)PatH64-77L0%0.0
11-26Rider (198.0)MAACA59-70W100%0.0
12-1NJIT (308.0)indA55-66W100%0.0
12-4Holy Cross (127.0)PatA62-57L0%0.0
12-10Brown (229.0)IvyA68-74W100%0.0
12-14Colgate (256.0)PatH60-69L0%0.0
12-20Yale (147.0)IvyH70-62W100%0.0
12-23Drake (174.0)MVCA71-63L0%0.0
12-31Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA58-46L0%0.0
1-4Hartford (234.0)AEH81-56W100%0.0
1-8UMBC (327.0)AEH73-72W100%0.0
1-11Vermont (101.0)AEA68-38L0%0.0
1-15UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA70-66L0%0.0
1-18Maine (330.0)AEA78-85W100%0.0
1-20Binghamton (325.0)AEH66-60W100%0.0
1-23New Hampshire (340.0)AEA60-56L0%0.0
1-29Stony Brook (165.0)AEH77-67W100%0.0
2-1Vermont (101.0)AEH45-55L0%0.0
2-5UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH73-56W100%0.0
2-8Hartford (234.0)AEA67-54L0%0.0
2-12UMBC (327.0)AEA71-69L0%0.0
2-15Maine (330.0)AEH74-63W100%0.0
2-19Binghamton (325.0)AEA48-57W100%0.0
2-27New Hampshire (340.0)AEH66-48W100%0.0
3-2Stony Brook (165.0)AEA73-68L0%0.0
3-8UMBC (327.0)AEH86-56W100%0.0
3-9Vermont (101.0)AEH67-58W100%0.0
3-15Stony Brook (165.0)AEA60-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.6426.6460.2960.295.485.48
VermontAE5.665.6666.6766.671.891.89
Stony BrookAE5.645.6472.4172.412.532.53
UMBCAE5.555.5526.9226.92-2.56-2.56
New HampshireAE4.274.2714.8114.81-3.00-3.00
HartfordAE4.264.2651.6151.610.140.14
MaineAE4.244.2419.2319.23-2.61-2.61
UMass LowellAE4.194.1932.0032.00-1.51-1.51
BinghamtonAE4.124.1225.0025.00-2.06-2.06
NJITind3.463.4639.1339.13-0.75-0.75
Holy CrossPat1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
QuinnipiacMAAC1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
DuquesneA101.841.8439.2939.29-0.39-0.39
YaleIvy1.801.8053.8553.850.140.14
BrownIvy1.781.7853.8553.850.140.14
SienaMAAC1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat1.721.7237.9337.93-0.41-0.41
BucknellPat1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
RiderMAAC1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PittsburghACC1.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
DrakeMVC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
DartmouthIvy0.410.4138.4638.46-0.09-0.09
NavyPat0.390.3927.5927.59-0.18-0.18
Loyola MDPat0.360.3634.4834.48-0.11-0.11
LehighPat0.330.3343.7543.75-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.310.3162.5062.500.080.08
ColumbiaIvy0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
ArmyPat0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.290.293.703.70-0.27-0.27
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2534.4834.48-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2470.5970.590.100.10
MonmouthMAAC0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.220.2286.2186.210.160.16
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2021.2121.21-0.12-0.12
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1816.1316.13-0.12-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
George WashingtonA100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
HofstraCAA0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00