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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:208.3
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:338
Current Record:15-10
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:8.75%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10167.75.08%
20-11186.620.60%
19-12204.032.90%
18-13220.426.84%
17-14237.311.93%
16-15254.42.48%
15-16270.70.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA89-56L0%0.0
11-14Brown (305.2)IvyN77-68W100%0.0
11-15Syracuse (2.1)BEA98-74L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (275.8)NECN85-49W100%0.0
11-22George Mason (94.6)CAAA66-46L0%0.0
11-25Navy (318.8)PatH69-62W100%0.0
11-27Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)NECH81-62W100%0.0
12-5Siena (226.0)MAACA64-60L0%0.0
12-7Colgate (296.0)PatH87-63W100%0.0
12-17Cornell (178.3)IvyA85-82L0%0.0
12-19St. Francis NY (188.7)NECA64-76W100%0.0
12-23Dartmouth (320.3)IvyH82-74W100%0.0
12-28Maryland (112.8)ACCA83-72L0%0.0
12-31Mount St. Mary's (291.1)NECA64-65W100%0.0
1-2Hartford (328.5)AEH88-63W100%0.0
1-5MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEA72-89W100%0.0
1-8Stony Brook (154.7)AEA81-68L0%0.0
1-11New Hampshire (315.8)AEH86-63W100%0.0
1-14Maine (261.2)AEH76-75W100%0.0
1-16Boston University (175.2)AEA70-57L0%0.0
1-19Vermont (173.1)AEA73-69L0%0.0
1-25Binghamton (343.4)AEH74-68W100%0.0
1-28Hartford (328.5)AEA60-72W100%0.0
2-1MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEH87-76W100%0.0
2-4Stony Brook (154.7)AEH69-76L0%0.0
2-6Boston University (175.2)AEH0-057%2.0
2-9New Hampshire (315.8)AEA0-061%3.2
2-11Maine (261.2)AEA0-049%-0.3
2-15Vermont (173.1)AEH0-050%-0.0
2-18Rider (213.8)MAACH0-067%4.8
2-23Binghamton (343.4)AEA0-089%13.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.3926.3165.6664.738.267.75
VermontAE2.774.1158.3361.620.460.95
Stony BrookAE4.584.0963.1665.491.211.27
New HampshireAE2.714.0936.8440.12-0.71-0.81
BinghamtonAE2.734.070.003.92-2.73-3.75
HartfordAE4.594.0719.0522.52-2.84-2.24
Boston UniversityAE2.694.0545.8350.53-0.220.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE4.464.0415.0017.56-3.12-2.62
MaineAE2.634.0352.6351.670.140.13
BrownIvy2.361.9828.5724.62-1.01-1.01
CornellIvy2.271.9233.3339.19-0.76-0.41
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.401.9227.2729.63-1.09-0.78
MonmouthNEC2.221.8929.1729.87-0.93-0.76
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.221.899.0912.57-1.82-1.41
ColgatePat2.271.8731.8230.55-0.83-0.73
DartmouthIvy2.231.8715.0017.79-1.56-1.20
RiderMAAC0.361.8437.5038.69-0.09-0.42
St. Francis NYNEC2.261.8359.0957.940.410.29
SienaMAAC2.131.7742.8643.60-0.30-0.23
NavyPat2.171.7510.0013.69-1.74-1.27
MarylandACC2.101.6757.1449.120.30-0.03
SyracuseBE2.091.6795.6591.741.911.39
George MasonCAA2.091.6775.0071.591.040.72
PittsburghBE2.041.6659.0956.760.370.23
MaristMAAC0.270.3634.7833.43-0.08-0.12
QuinnipiacNEC0.430.3556.5257.150.060.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.3444.0045.89-0.05-0.03
BucknellPat0.360.3373.9175.000.170.17
Holy CrossPat0.330.3240.9142.05-0.06-0.05
Loyola MDMAAC0.280.3077.2773.450.150.14
HarvardIvy0.310.3090.4887.910.250.23
ColumbiaIvy0.340.2855.0054.800.030.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.230.2854.5556.840.020.04
YaleIvy0.270.2872.2263.190.120.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.390.2845.4545.70-0.04-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.210.2770.8371.050.090.11
NiagaraMAAC0.220.2737.5041.54-0.06-0.05
AmericanPat0.370.2665.2263.790.110.07
St. Peter'sMAAC0.180.2521.7424.58-0.10-0.13
WagnerNEC0.210.2482.6184.570.140.17
HofstraCAA0.210.2432.0035.39-0.08-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.220.2468.0069.070.080.09
ArmyPat0.230.2340.9141.72-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.140.2247.3752.87-0.010.01
RutgersBE0.320.2250.0046.810.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.210.224.005.26-0.19-0.20
CanisiusMAAC0.040.2217.3919.81-0.03-0.13
St. Francis PANEC0.340.2221.7422.76-0.19-0.12
Robert MorrisNEC0.300.2268.0070.030.110.09
Boston CollegeACC0.190.2030.4326.44-0.07-0.09
LafayettePat0.270.2043.4842.95-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.270.1956.5250.270.030.00
BryantNEC0.260.198.3310.86-0.22-0.15
NortheasternCAA0.080.1947.8348.56-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.180.1979.1780.100.100.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1833.3334.47-0.07-0.06
LehighPat0.190.1773.9174.910.090.09
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1754.5554.300.010.01
Notre DameBE0.230.1765.2262.650.070.04
Rhode IslandA100.180.1620.8320.60-0.10-0.10
FordhamA100.210.1640.9134.50-0.04-0.05
La SalleA100.170.1670.8368.820.070.06
ConnecticutBE0.050.1468.1863.990.020.04
St. John'sBE0.180.1443.4840.28-0.02-0.03
DelawareCAA0.170.1347.8350.65-0.010.00
LouisvilleBE0.090.1378.2672.660.050.06
South FloridaBE0.040.1354.5548.600.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1345.4546.08-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.190.1275.0075.780.090.06
Penn St.B100.180.1141.6738.67-0.03-0.03
Longwoodind0.180.1130.0027.84-0.07-0.05
RadfordBSth0.090.118.7013.10-0.07-0.08
DrexelCAA0.080.1179.1778.100.050.06
Old DominionCAA0.120.1060.0058.290.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0950.0048.900.00-0.00
MissouriB120.090.0991.3087.180.080.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.130.0833.3338.38-0.04-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.130.0845.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0839.1342.12-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.130.0879.1775.980.080.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0865.2263.740.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0886.9683.160.060.05
VirginiaACC0.040.0881.8276.800.030.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0839.1336.10-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.130.0856.5255.200.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0840.0040.18-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaBE0.090.0865.2265.170.030.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0661.9055.140.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0654.5557.690.000.01
ElonSC0.100.0650.0047.590.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0668.1869.680.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.0660.0059.060.020.01
IllinoisB100.100.0672.7364.430.040.02
TulaneCUSA0.090.0661.9058.590.020.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.090.0671.4366.600.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0645.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0625.0037.58-0.05-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0540.9138.38-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0536.3639.72-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0518.1822.22-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0586.3683.090.030.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.0060.020.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0533.3337.16-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0570.8364.420.040.02
CincinnatiBE0.090.0569.5765.470.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0581.8280.430.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0550.0042.830.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0559.0956.350.020.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0582.6177.630.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.040.0580.9577.380.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0562.5062.490.010.01
St. LouisA100.040.0577.2777.670.020.03
TexasB120.040.0560.8761.370.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.000.0580.0078.060.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0369.5761.310.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0352.3857.860.000.00
WisconsinB100.040.0375.0073.970.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.040.0358.3359.980.010.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.040.0366.6769.690.010.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0371.4373.350.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0359.0959.720.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0310.0014.93-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.040.0369.5768.290.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0369.5765.870.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0312.5013.44-0.03-0.02