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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:119.0
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:317
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-674.61.34%
23-787.210.90%
22-8102.225.25%
21-9119.030.28%
20-10137.621.75%
19-11156.08.46%
18-12175.11.73%
17-13194.40.27%
16-14207.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Iona (96.0)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
11-13Boston University (199.1)PatA74-88W100%0.0
11-17Yale (202.5)IvyH80-72W100%0.0
11-22Dartmouth (318.5)IvyA73-91W100%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (303.4)PatA62-78W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (173.4)MAACA81-73L0%0.0
11-29Colgate (220.5)PatH75-69W100%0.0
12-2Columbia (278.6)IvyH86-82W100%0.0
12-6Bryant (331.0)NECH84-68W100%0.0
12-9Siena (267.4)MAACA69-74W100%0.0
12-12Memphis (118.6)AmerA67-58L0%0.0
12-16Canisius (126.8)MAACH68-65W100%0.0
12-20Louisville (23.4)ACCA70-68L0%0.0
12-28Kent St. (185.1)MACH78-68W100%0.0
1-3Hartford (253.5)AEH64-72L0%0.0
1-6New Hampshire (260.1)AEA64-61L0%0.0
1-10Stony Brook (196.4)AEH78-65W100%0.0
1-13Maine (331.6)AEA66-84W100%0.0
1-15Binghamton (281.9)AEA79-66L0%0.0
1-18UMass Lowell (308.7)AEH70-62W100%0.0
1-21UMBC (174.2)AEH83-39W100%0.0
1-24Vermont (55.0)AEA0-024%-7.8
1-27Stony Brook (196.4)AEA0-056%1.7
2-3New Hampshire (260.1)AEH0-082%10.4
2-8Vermont (55.0)AEH0-045%-1.4
2-11Hartford (253.5)AEA0-075%7.5
2-15UMass Lowell (308.7)AEA0-080%9.3
2-18UMBC (174.2)AEA0-060%2.8
2-24Maine (331.6)AEH0-096%19.2
2-27Binghamton (281.9)AEH0-089%13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.3626.3374.7173.4813.0312.36
New HampshireAE2.914.2629.4138.65-1.20-0.97
MaineAE2.864.2411.1115.78-2.23-2.90
VermontAE0.604.2475.0078.730.302.44
Stony BrookAE2.714.1838.8946.93-0.60-0.26
BinghamtonAE2.764.1838.8938.78-0.61-0.94
HartfordAE2.764.1747.3744.70-0.15-0.44
UMass LowellAE2.704.1735.2935.70-0.79-1.19
UMBCAE2.704.1758.8258.280.480.69
DartmouthIvy2.622.0123.0827.40-1.41-0.91
SienaMAAC2.742.0030.0030.94-1.10-0.76
Boston UniversityPat2.701.9652.9455.240.160.21
ColumbiaIvy2.571.9321.4333.54-1.47-0.64
YaleIvy2.561.9343.7549.26-0.32-0.03
ColgatePat2.721.9352.9452.920.160.11
BryantNEC2.841.9310.0017.69-2.27-1.24
Holy CrossPat2.701.9027.7831.58-1.20-0.70
IonaMAAC2.751.8963.1666.320.720.62
CanisiusMAAC2.711.8665.0065.250.810.57
MonmouthMAAC2.571.8623.5338.99-1.36-0.41
LouisvilleACC2.551.7577.7868.781.420.66
MemphisAmer2.561.7563.1657.150.670.25
Kent St.MAC2.381.6747.0646.47-0.14-0.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.520.4035.0031.83-0.16-0.14
Loyola MDPat0.470.3522.2228.66-0.26-0.15
Sacred HeartNEC0.460.3530.0033.47-0.18-0.11
BucknellPat0.380.3461.9068.020.090.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.370.3440.0042.52-0.07-0.05
CornellIvy0.270.3333.3333.23-0.09-0.11
BrownIvy0.330.3350.0045.140.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.340.3361.1160.440.070.07
HarvardIvy0.300.3037.5046.69-0.07-0.02
LehighPat0.390.2638.8944.75-0.09-0.03
MaristMAAC0.250.2521.0522.02-0.14-0.14
FairfieldMAAC0.130.2538.8944.08-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2557.1453.050.040.02
RiderMAAC0.180.2565.0065.320.050.08
AmericanPat0.200.2426.3228.11-0.09-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.420.2465.0054.670.120.02
NavyPat0.330.2460.0055.160.070.02
ConnecticutAmer0.400.2352.6347.390.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2352.3848.530.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.240.2250.0050.860.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.2242.1146.09-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.150.2164.7162.720.040.05
PrincetonIvy0.150.2152.9460.220.010.04
LafayettePat0.130.1822.2227.47-0.07-0.08
WagnerNEC0.180.1764.7164.570.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1766.6773.210.060.08
MassachusettsA100.190.1550.0046.810.00-0.01
RutgersB100.180.1455.0046.690.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1452.9459.250.010.03
St. BonaventureA100.180.1466.6768.730.060.05
NJITASun0.190.1238.8942.61-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.120.009.09-0.13-0.10
MarylandB100.130.1270.0065.250.050.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.1163.1663.220.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.1161.1158.700.010.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1147.0641.41-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.190.1157.8959.490.030.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1123.5332.57-0.06-0.04
KentuckySEC0.130.1173.6867.970.060.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1157.1460.410.020.02
Penn St.B100.140.0961.9055.760.030.01
WisconsinB100.140.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0970.0070.570.030.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0918.7536.82-0.08-0.02
SyracuseACC0.130.0868.4261.230.050.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.0852.6347.520.01-0.00
George MasonA100.130.0845.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0827.7838.14-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.130.0847.0648.41-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0872.2274.930.030.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0894.7486.140.060.06
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.940.040.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.07-0.07-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.069.5217.90-0.05-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.560.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.540.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.380.000.00
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.630.020.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.36-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.970.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.150.0663.1661.020.040.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0617.6519.30-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0631.5829.06-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0668.4254.070.020.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.0083.200.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0627.7827.28-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.060.0670.0060.470.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0650.0051.640.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0678.9571.810.040.03
ElonCAA0.120.0652.6351.080.010.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0677.7870.480.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.0683.3381.430.080.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0665.0057.880.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.690.020.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0631.5834.360.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.130.0575.0067.890.060.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.0521.0523.51-0.07-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0589.4785.550.050.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.470.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0573.6869.640.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0542.1144.96-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0565.0056.340.020.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0540.0030.87-0.01-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0535.0026.120.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0533.3335.21-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0563.1657.890.020.01
TulsaAmer0.120.0555.0053.320.010.00
UCFAmer0.060.0568.4260.860.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0568.4257.740.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0316.6716.16-0.05-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.700.040.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.970.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.67-0.07-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0356.2557.400.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.020.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0337.5031.76-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.4258.980.020.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0330.0036.50-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.240.040.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0366.6765.640.020.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0357.8966.260.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0366.6755.940.020.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0370.0071.230.030.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
IndianaB100.060.0357.8950.710.010.00
Little RockSB0.060.0322.2225.25-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0361.1153.170.010.00
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0325.0028.01-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
PacificWCC0.060.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.370.050.02
SamfordSC0.060.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0355.0052.470.010.00
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0357.8950.210.010.00
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.130.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.01