Albany

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	208.3
Current RPI:	210
Expected SOS:	336
Current SOS:	338
Current Record:	15-10
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	7-4
Expected Conf Record:	10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	8.75%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-2
Current OOC Record:	8-6
Expected OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC RPI:	179
Expected OOC SOS:	315

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	167.7	5.08%
20-11	186.6	20.60%
19-12	204.0	32.90%
18-13	220.4	26.84%
17-14	237.3	11.93%
16-15	254.4	2.48%
15-16	270.7	0.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	89-56	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	N	77-68	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Syracuse (2.1)	BE	A	98-74	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	N	85-49	W	100%	0.0
11-22	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	66-46	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	69-62	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	81-62	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	64-60	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	87-63	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	85-82	L	0%	0.0
12-19	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	64-76	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	82-74	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	83-72	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	64-65	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	88-63	W	100%	0.0
1-5	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	72-89	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	81-68	L	0%	0.0
1-11	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	86-63	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	76-75	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	70-57	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	74-68	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	60-72	W	100%	0.0
2-1	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	87-76	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	69-76	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	0-0		57%	2.0
2-9	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	0-0		61%	3.2
2-11	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	0-0		49%	-0.3
2-15	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	0-0		50%	-0.0
2-18	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-23	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	0-0		89%	13.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Albany	AE	26.39	26.31	65.66	64.73	8.26	7.75
Vermont	AE	2.77	4.11	58.33	61.62	0.46	0.95
Stony Brook	AE	4.58	4.09	63.16	65.49	1.21	1.27
New Hampshire	AE	2.71	4.09	36.84	40.12	-0.71	-0.81
Binghamton	AE	2.73	4.07	0.00	3.92	-2.73	-3.75
Hartford	AE	4.59	4.07	19.05	22.52	-2.84	-2.24
Boston University	AE	2.69	4.05	45.83	50.53	-0.22	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.46	4.04	15.00	17.56	-3.12	-2.62
Maine	AE	2.63	4.03	52.63	51.67	0.14	0.13
Brown	Ivy	2.36	1.98	28.57	24.62	-1.01	-1.01
Cornell	Ivy	2.27	1.92	33.33	39.19	-0.76	-0.41
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.40	1.92	27.27	29.63	-1.09	-0.78
Monmouth	NEC	2.22	1.89	29.17	29.87	-0.93	-0.76
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.22	1.89	9.09	12.57	-1.82	-1.41
Colgate	Pat	2.27	1.87	31.82	30.55	-0.83	-0.73
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.23	1.87	15.00	17.79	-1.56	-1.20
Rider	MAAC	0.36	1.84	37.50	38.69	-0.09	-0.42
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.26	1.83	59.09	57.94	0.41	0.29
Siena	MAAC	2.13	1.77	42.86	43.60	-0.30	-0.23
Navy	Pat	2.17	1.75	10.00	13.69	-1.74	-1.27
Maryland	ACC	2.10	1.67	57.14	49.12	0.30	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	2.09	1.67	95.65	91.74	1.91	1.39
George Mason	CAA	2.09	1.67	75.00	71.59	1.04	0.72
Pittsburgh	BE	2.04	1.66	59.09	56.76	0.37	0.23
Marist	MAAC	0.27	0.36	34.78	33.43	-0.08	-0.12
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.43	0.35	56.52	57.15	0.06	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.45	0.34	44.00	45.89	-0.05	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.36	0.33	73.91	75.00	0.17	0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	0.33	0.32	40.91	42.05	-0.06	-0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.28	0.30	77.27	73.45	0.15	0.14
Harvard	Ivy	0.31	0.30	90.48	87.91	0.25	0.23
Columbia	Ivy	0.34	0.28	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.23	0.28	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.27	0.28	72.22	63.19	0.12	0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.39	0.28	45.45	45.70	-0.04	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.21	0.27	70.83	71.05	0.09	0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.22	0.27	37.50	41.54	-0.06	-0.05
American	Pat	0.37	0.26	65.22	63.79	0.11	0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.18	0.25	21.74	24.58	-0.10	-0.13
Wagner	NEC	0.21	0.24	82.61	84.57	0.14	0.17
Hofstra	CAA	0.21	0.24	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.24	68.00	69.07	0.08	0.09
Army	Pat	0.23	0.23	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.22	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.32	0.22	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.21	0.22	4.00	5.26	-0.19	-0.20
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.22	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.13
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.34	0.22	21.74	22.76	-0.19	-0.12
Robert Morris	NEC	0.30	0.22	68.00	70.03	0.11	0.09
Boston College	ACC	0.19	0.20	30.43	26.44	-0.07	-0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.27	0.20	43.48	42.95	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.27	0.19	56.52	50.27	0.03	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.26	0.19	8.33	10.86	-0.22	-0.15
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.19	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.18	0.19	79.17	80.10	0.10	0.11
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.18	33.33	34.47	-0.07	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.19	0.17	73.91	74.91	0.09	0.09
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.17	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.23	0.17	65.22	62.65	0.07	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.18	0.16	20.83	20.60	-0.10	-0.10
Fordham	A10	0.21	0.16	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.16	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.14	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.18	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.17	0.13	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.13	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.04	0.13	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.13	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.09	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.18	0.11	30.00	27.84	-0.07	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.11	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.10	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.08	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.08	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.08	79.17	75.98	0.08	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.96	83.16	0.06	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.08	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.08	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.08	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.05	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.05	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.05	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.05	69.57	65.47	0.03	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.05	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.04	0.05	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.05	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Texas	B12	0.04	0.05	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.05	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.04	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.03	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.04	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.04	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02