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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:191.5
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:198
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-677.00.01%
22-796.10.07%
21-8106.50.55%
20-9123.62.15%
19-10139.36.54%
18-11155.111.38%
17-12171.718.12%
16-13189.520.42%
15-14207.718.67%
14-15226.812.13%
13-16245.36.43%
12-17262.62.39%
11-18279.10.87%
10-19296.40.18%
9-20309.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Providence (64.0)BEA64-60L0%0.0
11-19NJIT (216.8)indH65-48W100%0.0
11-22Quinnipiac (222.2)MAACH73-76L0%0.0
11-26Colgate (186.4)PatA71-75W100%0.0
11-29UNLV (142.3)MWCA75-59L0%0.0
12-3Holy Cross (148.5)PatH57-74L0%0.0
12-6St. Francis PA (124.8)NECA69-59L0%0.0
12-8Bucknell (249.1)PatA61-58L0%0.0
12-13Siena (211.1)MAACA68-77W100%0.0
12-20Yale (79.8)IvyA60-64W100%0.0
12-22Fairfield (257.7)MAACH0-081%10.3
12-30Niagara (279.6)MAACA0-060%2.9
1-3Maine (323.2)AEH0-091%15.4
1-6New Hampshire (179.8)AEA0-034%-5.0
1-10UMass Lowell (199.6)AEA0-046%-1.1
1-14Binghamton (341.7)AEH0-095%18.7
1-19Stony Brook (140.4)AEA0-029%-6.3
1-22Hartford (215.6)AEA0-045%-1.6
1-25UMBC (327.9)AEH0-090%15.0
1-28Vermont (178.6)AEA0-031%-6.0
1-31Maine (323.2)AEA0-073%7.1
2-4New Hampshire (179.8)AEH0-061%3.4
2-7UMass Lowell (199.6)AEH0-073%7.2
2-10Binghamton (341.7)AEA0-081%10.4
2-13NJIT (216.8)indA0-048%-0.5
2-17Stony Brook (140.4)AEH0-057%2.0
2-20Hartford (215.6)AEH0-072%6.8
2-25UMBC (327.9)AEA0-071%6.6
2-28Vermont (178.6)AEH0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE27.5926.4448.0058.98-1.104.75
MaineAE0.214.4711.1120.98-0.16-2.59
UMass LowellAE0.424.4450.0051.280.000.11
HartfordAE0.844.4250.0051.310.000.12
VermontAE0.764.3944.4457.85-0.080.69
UMBCAE0.004.3718.1825.75-0.00-2.12
BinghamtonAE0.464.360.0011.18-0.46-3.38
Stony BrookAE0.214.3333.3355.12-0.070.44
New HampshireAE0.254.3250.0061.040.000.95
NJITind5.363.8445.4545.22-0.49-0.37
QuinnipiacMAAC5.492.1137.5048.84-1.37-0.05
SienaMAAC5.281.9937.5051.31-1.320.05
YaleIvy5.491.9772.7364.032.490.55
Holy CrossPat5.211.9750.0051.990.000.08
ColgatePat5.001.9722.2244.06-2.78-0.23
NiagaraMAAC0.001.9612.5029.12-0.00-0.82
FairfieldMAAC0.531.9340.0038.29-0.11-0.45
BucknellPat5.001.9033.3334.48-1.67-0.59
ProvidenceBE5.211.8772.7355.972.370.22
St. Francis PANEC5.001.7950.0063.920.000.50
UNLVMWC5.001.7262.5047.821.25-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.000.4450.0046.690.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.280.3930.0041.69-0.11-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.000.3955.5662.150.000.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.3833.3345.04-0.07-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.280.3633.3328.13-0.09-0.16
Sacred HeartNEC0.610.3455.5660.980.070.07
LehighPat0.560.3044.4454.06-0.060.02
ArmyPat0.000.3077.7868.780.000.11
RiderMAAC0.280.3050.0053.250.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.3036.3648.18-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.490.3020.0022.16-0.29-0.17
ManhattanMAAC0.000.3030.0038.01-0.00-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.2820.0027.29-0.12-0.13
LafayettePat0.210.2866.6767.650.070.10
Boston CollegeACC0.210.2766.6742.600.07-0.04
AmericanPat0.280.2763.6463.240.080.07
MaristMAAC0.250.269.0916.15-0.20-0.18
BrownIvy0.570.2440.0033.80-0.11-0.08
CornellIvy0.250.2455.5648.710.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.250.2466.6767.930.080.08
IonaMAAC0.000.2460.0069.200.000.09
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2450.0058.370.000.04
BryantNEC0.210.2228.5745.89-0.09-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.530.1938.4644.61-0.12-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1812.5030.56-0.00-0.07
DuquesneA100.490.1637.5034.06-0.12-0.05
St. John'sBE0.210.1588.8965.170.160.05
VillanovaBE0.250.15100.0082.970.250.10
HarvardIvy0.360.1585.7172.910.260.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.1533.3341.20-0.08-0.03
Notre DameACC0.210.1591.6777.120.170.08
PennIvy0.000.1537.5032.63-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.1330.0043.15-0.08-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1330.0043.74-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.210.1260.0048.980.04-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.1233.3341.02-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.280.1277.7865.110.150.04
ButlerBE0.000.1272.7367.960.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.1290.0067.380.000.04
MichiganB100.460.1050.0040.450.00-0.02
RutgersB100.280.0954.5532.590.03-0.03
FordhamA100.280.0928.5727.11-0.12-0.04
Ohio St.B100.250.0981.8282.250.160.06
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0970.0064.680.110.03
Rhode IslandA100.210.0966.6773.310.070.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0977.7870.890.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0736.3646.72-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0745.4549.62-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0031.89-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0655.5652.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0051.780.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0637.5039.65-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4450.41-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0043.160.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.270.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.320.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5063.95-0.000.02
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.360.0660.0058.120.070.01
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.050.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.180.000.03
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0067.830.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.27-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
La SalleA100.530.0654.5552.730.050.00
MassachusettsA100.490.0654.5552.490.040.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Arizona St.P120.530.0654.5548.490.05-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.890.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.48-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7362.220.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.0655.5673.740.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.580.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
South DakotaSum0.280.0627.2738.30-0.13-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.260.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.220.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.590.000.02
TexasB120.280.0390.9179.980.230.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8648.87-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.210.0350.0058.070.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0388.8977.320.000.02
FloridaSEC0.210.0363.6465.220.060.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.0318.1820.86-0.13-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.210.0375.0058.160.100.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7856.220.000.00
RadfordBSth0.280.0355.5658.650.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.210.0354.5544.930.02-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.630.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.880.000.01
CampbellBSth0.250.0325.0043.93-0.13-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.210.000.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.17-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.250.0363.6455.660.070.00
KansasB120.000.0390.0070.680.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0316.6737.21-0.19-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0370.0060.920.000.01
Penn St.B100.250.0391.6755.310.210.00
PortlandWCC0.280.0370.0051.040.110.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.82-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.280.0366.6758.320.090.00
TempleAmer0.280.0363.6456.430.080.00
ToledoMAC0.250.0363.6461.520.070.01
UtahP120.280.0380.0080.520.170.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.60-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.210.0354.5541.980.02-0.00
KentuckySEC0.210.03100.0096.290.210.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01