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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:142.0
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:292
Current SOS:292
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10142.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Iona (107.0)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
11-13Boston University (212.0)PatA74-88W100%0.0
11-17Yale (183.0)IvyH80-72W100%0.0
11-22Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA73-91W100%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (265.0)PatA62-78W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (199.0)MAACA81-73L0%0.0
11-29Colgate (185.0)PatH75-69W100%0.0
12-2Columbia (316.0)IvyH86-82W100%0.0
12-6Bryant (341.0)NECH84-68W100%0.0
12-9Siena (299.0)MAACA69-74W100%0.0
12-12Memphis (106.0)AmerA67-58L0%0.0
12-16Canisius (124.0)MAACH68-65W100%0.0
12-20Louisville (38.0)ACCA70-68L0%0.0
12-28Kent St. (154.0)MACH78-68W100%0.0
1-3Hartford (198.0)AEH64-72L0%0.0
1-6New Hampshire (312.0)AEA64-61L0%0.0
1-10Stony Brook (208.0)AEH78-65W100%0.0
1-13Maine (338.0)AEA66-84W100%0.0
1-15Binghamton (320.0)AEA79-66L0%0.0
1-18UMass Lowell (289.0)AEH70-62W100%0.0
1-21UMBC (111.0)AEH83-39W100%0.0
1-24Vermont (60.0)AEA61-50L0%0.0
1-27Stony Brook (208.0)AEA50-57W100%0.0
2-3New Hampshire (312.0)AEH83-74W100%0.0
2-8Vermont (60.0)AEH67-72L0%0.0
2-11Hartford (198.0)AEA63-69W100%0.0
2-15UMass Lowell (289.0)AEA81-91W100%0.0
2-18UMBC (111.0)AEA68-60L0%0.0
2-24Maine (338.0)AEH89-79W100%0.0
2-27Binghamton (320.0)AEH71-54W100%0.0
3-3Stony Brook (208.0)AEH60-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.3526.3569.3469.3410.1910.19
Stony BrookAE5.675.6739.2939.29-1.21-1.21
VermontAE4.304.3077.4277.422.362.36
UMBCAE4.214.2168.9768.971.601.60
New HampshireAE4.184.1825.9325.93-2.01-2.01
MaineAE4.164.1614.2914.29-2.97-2.97
HartfordAE4.164.1658.6258.620.720.72
UMass LowellAE4.104.1040.7440.74-0.76-0.76
BinghamtonAE4.044.0429.6329.63-1.65-1.65
DartmouthIvy1.941.9424.0024.00-1.01-1.01
SienaMAAC1.911.9125.8125.81-0.93-0.93
ColumbiaIvy1.891.8928.0028.00-0.83-0.83
ColgatePat1.881.8860.0060.000.380.38
Boston UniversityPat1.881.8848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy1.861.8651.7251.720.060.06
BryantNEC1.851.8510.0010.00-1.48-1.48
Holy CrossPat1.851.8540.0040.00-0.37-0.37
IonaMAAC1.821.8262.5062.500.450.45
CanisiusMAAC1.801.8067.7467.740.640.64
MonmouthMAAC1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
MemphisAmer1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
LouisvilleACC1.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
Kent St.MAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.420.4236.3636.36-0.11-0.11
BucknellPat0.390.3973.5373.530.180.18
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.3551.5251.520.010.01
BrownIvy0.340.3438.4638.46-0.08-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.330.3330.0030.00-0.13-0.13
Loyola MDPat0.320.3226.6726.67-0.15-0.15
CornellIvy0.320.3240.7440.74-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.300.3041.3841.38-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
LehighPat0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2543.7543.75-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.240.2461.2961.290.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.240.2443.7543.75-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
NiagaraMAAC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
PennIvy0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
RiderMAAC0.230.2370.9770.970.100.10
ManhattanMAAC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.220.2255.8855.880.030.03
AmericanPat0.210.2120.0020.00-0.13-0.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.160.1670.0070.000.060.06
RutgersB100.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.116.676.67-0.09-0.09
NJITASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01