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Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


Albany

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:139.8
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:228
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:9-5
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11127.820.63%
18-12141.874.98%
17-13162.74.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Albany.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Penn St. (85.8)B10A81-87W100%0.0
11-14Cincinnati (13.2)AmerA74-51L0%0.0
11-19Grand Canyon (147.8)WACN82-77L0%0.0
11-20Brown (293.8)IvyN80-76W100%0.0
11-27Siena (139.1)MAACH81-72W100%0.0
11-30Holy Cross (197.1)PatH49-55L0%0.0
12-3Yale (146.2)IvyA59-55L0%0.0
12-7Marist (283.8)MAACH78-66W100%0.0
12-10Colgate (274.8)PatA66-74W100%0.0
12-12Canisius (141.3)MAACA77-64L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis NY (347.7)NECH87-60W100%0.0
12-20SMU (18.0)AmerA71-53L0%0.0
12-30Columbia (247.1)IvyA67-70W100%0.0
1-2Cornell (271.6)IvyH69-59W100%0.0
1-5UMass Lowell (293.8)AEA85-79L0%0.0
1-8Stony Brook (151.6)AEA72-70L0%0.0
1-11New Hampshire (157.1)AEH67-75L0%0.0
1-16UMBC (167.0)AEA50-77W100%0.0
1-19Binghamton (278.3)AEH84-65W100%0.0
1-22Maine (328.3)AEH81-63W100%0.0
1-25Vermont (47.5)AEH49-60L0%0.0
1-28Hartford (325.0)AEA61-74W100%0.0
2-1UMass Lowell (293.8)AEH90-77W100%0.0
2-4Stony Brook (151.6)AEH65-72L0%0.0
2-6New Hampshire (157.1)AEA55-69W100%0.0
2-9Binghamton (278.3)AEA54-66W100%0.0
2-15UMBC (167.0)AEH78-69W100%0.0
2-19Maine (328.3)AEA56-74W100%0.0
2-22Vermont (47.5)AEA0-022%-8.4
2-25Hartford (325.0)AEH0-095%17.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Albany's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Albany's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Albany.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AlbanyAE26.3426.3262.5062.466.586.56
MaineAE4.424.2318.5218.71-2.78-2.65
VermontAE2.684.2381.4881.681.692.68
Stony BrookAE4.344.2060.0057.490.870.63
UMass LowellAE4.374.2033.3333.48-1.46-1.39
BinghamtonAE4.344.1937.5039.63-1.08-0.87
HartfordAE2.624.1828.5729.16-1.12-1.74
New HampshireAE4.254.1656.5257.200.550.60
UMBCAE4.224.1365.2263.731.281.13
BrownIvy2.172.0539.1338.99-0.47-0.45
CornellIvy2.142.0226.0926.26-1.02-0.96
ColumbiaIvy2.101.9942.8642.23-0.30-0.31
MaristMAAC2.071.9725.0025.33-1.04-0.97
YaleIvy2.001.9657.1458.610.290.34
ColgatePat2.031.8733.3334.32-0.68-0.59
Holy CrossPat2.011.8746.4347.26-0.14-0.10
SienaMAAC1.951.8650.0050.150.000.01
CanisiusMAAC1.941.8057.1457.330.280.26
CincinnatiAmer1.921.7888.4687.031.481.32
Penn St.B101.891.7551.8550.420.070.01
St. Francis NYNEC1.851.7211.1111.78-1.44-1.32
Grand CanyonWAC1.851.7264.0064.200.520.49
SMUAmer1.851.7285.1985.071.301.21
DartmouthIvy0.460.5026.0925.96-0.22-0.24
QuinnipiacMAAC0.390.4135.7136.67-0.11-0.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.330.3418.5220.01-0.21-0.21
HarvardIvy0.300.3366.6765.290.100.10
Boston UniversityPat0.320.3155.5655.300.040.03
Loyola MDPat0.290.2850.0050.300.000.00
NavyPat0.270.2651.8551.700.010.01
PennIvy0.230.2547.8350.34-0.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.230.2572.7374.030.110.12
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2431.0331.60-0.10-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.230.2359.2658.080.040.04
ArmyPat0.270.2337.0436.55-0.07-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2244.8343.96-0.02-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2260.7158.730.050.04
MonmouthMAAC0.220.2282.7681.870.150.14
RiderMAAC0.220.2251.7252.460.010.01
TempleAmer0.240.2050.0052.260.000.01
LehighPat0.200.2057.6959.710.030.04
NortheasternCAA0.200.2050.0048.510.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.170.1969.2368.340.060.07
ManhattanMAAC0.220.1934.4833.53-0.07-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1957.1457.270.030.03
BryantNEC0.210.1835.7137.15-0.06-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.200.1742.3143.89-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.170.1742.8642.57-0.02-0.03
AmericanPat0.200.1722.2222.15-0.11-0.10
NJITASun0.200.1729.6330.60-0.08-0.07
LafayettePat0.160.1726.9225.73-0.08-0.08
RutgersB100.160.1644.4442.91-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1651.8551.120.010.00
IonaMAAC0.180.1662.0762.310.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1525.9327.44-0.08-0.07
DuquesneA100.170.1437.0436.52-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.160.1481.4878.450.100.08
BucknellPat0.160.1472.4173.570.070.06
TowsonCAA0.140.1264.2961.960.040.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1251.7253.710.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1270.3769.240.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1132.1430.40-0.03-0.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1152.0053.220.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1166.6766.740.040.04
IndianaB100.130.1153.5752.940.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.1152.0050.070.000.00
TulaneAmer0.130.1118.5218.47-0.08-0.07
TulsaAmer0.100.1146.1547.81-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.0924.0024.47-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0973.0873.880.050.04
St. John'sBE0.100.0942.8642.01-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0955.5651.610.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0928.0028.36-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.100.0857.1455.700.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0869.5771.390.030.04
MarylandB100.100.0880.7779.250.060.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0814.2918.11-0.07-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.090.0850.0050.450.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0877.7874.820.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0837.5039.90-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0838.4638.54-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0848.1547.58-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0870.3770.480.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0846.4343.90-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0866.6763.160.010.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.0826.9225.65-0.05-0.04
UCFAmer0.060.0862.9662.110.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0638.1038.33-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0622.2222.37-0.04-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0640.7440.75-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.69-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0659.2660.030.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0678.5777.770.040.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0676.0077.340.040.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0666.6767.630.020.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0616.0018.14-0.05-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0681.4879.390.040.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0637.0435.10-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0612.0011.80-0.03-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0641.6743.50-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.080.050.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0639.1337.82-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0634.7836.63-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0644.0045.06-0.01-0.01
USCP120.070.0677.7875.860.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0622.2224.27-0.04-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0660.0060.590.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0657.6957.620.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0616.0016.19-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0637.9339.65-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0642.3143.04-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0525.0027.77-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0553.8552.620.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0528.5729.06-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0551.8551.320.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0555.5655.060.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0562.9662.490.020.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0574.0771.310.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0525.0025.84-0.02-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0582.1480.770.040.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0561.5461.820.010.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.46-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.210.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0338.4640.06-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0361.5460.010.010.01
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.51-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0340.7442.17-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.040.0353.8552.830.000.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0353.8553.480.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0352.1749.960.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.670.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0325.0027.74-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0381.4879.740.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.890.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0314.8115.44-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0326.0928.37-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0340.0040.09-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0351.7249.540.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.0074.360.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0350.0049.750.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.150.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0049.680.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0362.9661.390.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0355.5652.790.000.00
IowaB100.000.0353.5751.530.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6764.790.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0350.0049.370.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0388.8987.370.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.1481.780.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0355.5655.680.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0353.8554.700.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0322.7323.32-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0359.2657.860.010.00
NebraskaB100.030.0344.0042.74-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.300.010.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0353.5752.330.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0353.8554.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.0029.87-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0361.5458.110.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0359.2659.750.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0357.6956.380.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0359.2662.730.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0312.5014.90-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0374.0773.860.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0381.4880.890.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.9662.450.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0366.6766.160.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0332.1431.91-0.01-0.01