American

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	150.9
Current RPI:	147
Expected SOS:	297
Current SOS:	319
Current Record:	15-8
Expected Record:	19-10
Current Conf Record:	6-2
Expected Conf Record:	10-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	7.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-4
Current OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC RPI:	164
Expected OOC SOS:	321

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-8	106.9	2.56%
20-9	124.6	15.87%
19-10	141.2	31.48%
18-11	159.4	32.30%
17-12	178.9	14.84%
16-13	197.9	2.75%
15-14	215.5	0.19%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Richmond (135.3)	A10	A	66-56	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	64-62	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	62-56	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	A	58-66	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	74-73	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	63-65	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	77-66	W	100%	0.0
12-1	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	69-58	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	H	66-60	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	74-72	W	100%	0.0
12-10	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	66-61	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Georgetown (13.9)	BE	A	81-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Villanova (98.5)	BE	A	73-52	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	49-42	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	61-70	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	82-54	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	71-60	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	67-54	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	60-67	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	67-55	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	67-61	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	58-59	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-11	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	0-0		56%	1.7
2-15	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	0-0		89%	13.4
2-18	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	0-0		61%	2.9
2-23	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	0-0		37%	-3.5
2-25	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	0-0		73%	6.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
American	Pat	26.23	26.30	74.19	68.80	12.69	9.89
Lehigh	Pat	2.77	4.30	72.73	74.30	1.26	2.09
Colgate	Pat	4.79	4.27	33.33	31.68	-1.60	-1.56
Bucknell	Pat	2.71	4.27	72.73	74.54	1.23	2.09
Navy	Pat	2.71	4.26	10.00	13.80	-2.16	-3.08
Lafayette	Pat	2.67	4.24	45.45	45.14	-0.24	-0.41
Holy Cross	Pat	2.61	4.21	42.86	43.60	-0.37	-0.54
Army	Pat	2.56	4.17	42.86	43.41	-0.37	-0.55
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.50	2.05	18.18	20.00	-1.59	-1.23
Columbia	Ivy	2.48	2.03	57.89	56.83	0.39	0.28
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.46	2.00	59.09	59.19	0.45	0.37
Cornell	Ivy	2.38	1.96	38.89	43.04	-0.53	-0.27
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.32	1.94	15.79	17.00	-1.59	-1.28
Howard	MEAC	2.38	1.87	19.05	23.04	-1.47	-1.01
Richmond	A10	2.32	1.87	47.83	46.77	-0.10	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	2.17	1.85	28.57	24.62	-0.93	-0.94
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.32	1.85	22.73	26.05	-1.27	-0.88
Hampton	MEAC	2.32	1.84	38.10	39.81	-0.55	-0.38
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.27	1.81	65.22	64.57	0.69	0.53
Georgetown	BE	2.22	1.78	80.00	76.54	1.33	0.95
Villanova	BE	2.22	1.78	42.86	44.22	-0.32	-0.21
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.17	1.72	38.10	41.19	-0.52	-0.30
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.17	1.72	14.29	16.94	-1.55	-1.14
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.40	0.42	14.29	17.17	-0.29	-0.28
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.48	0.39	56.52	55.95	0.06	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.43	0.35	44.00	45.89	-0.05	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.24	0.34	72.22	63.19	0.11	0.09
Monmouth	NEC	0.39	0.33	28.00	28.91	-0.17	-0.14
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.35	0.33	54.55	56.84	0.03	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.34	0.33	8.33	10.86	-0.28	-0.26
Harvard	Ivy	0.31	0.30	90.48	87.91	0.25	0.23
Princeton	Ivy	0.26	0.30	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.24	0.30	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.34	0.30	8.70	12.13	-0.28	-0.23
Albany	AE	0.40	0.27	60.00	60.42	0.08	0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.30	0.27	0.00	4.02	-0.30	-0.25
La Salle	A10	0.24	0.26	70.83	68.82	0.10	0.10
Long Island	NEC	0.29	0.24	70.83	71.05	0.12	0.10
Wagner	NEC	0.19	0.24	82.61	84.57	0.12	0.16
Boston University	AE	0.30	0.24	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.20	0.21	68.18	69.68	0.07	0.08
Marist	MAAC	0.25	0.21	34.78	33.43	-0.07	-0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.24	0.21	33.33	38.38	-0.08	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.24	0.21	17.39	20.97	-0.16	-0.12
New Hampshire	AE	0.24	0.21	35.00	38.58	-0.07	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.19	0.21	42.11	49.81	-0.03	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.19	0.21	25.00	37.58	-0.10	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.28	0.20	40.91	34.50	-0.05	-0.06
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.18	30.00	27.84	-0.08	-0.08
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.18	35.29	39.85	-0.05	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.15	0.18	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.20	0.18	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.20	0.18	43.48	40.28	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.18	95.83	92.01	0.18	0.15
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.18	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.16	0.15	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.20	0.15	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Maine	AE	0.20	0.15	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.15	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.15	79.17	75.98	0.12	0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.15	12.50	13.44	-0.14	-0.11
Rutgers	BE	0.20	0.15	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.13	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.12	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.16	0.12	66.67	68.05	0.05	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.12	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.14	0.12	77.27	73.45	0.08	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.12	27.27	27.21	-0.06	-0.05
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.11	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.04
Temple	A10	0.14	0.11	77.27	75.06	0.08	0.06
Elon	SC	0.11	0.09	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.09	61.90	58.59	0.03	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.09	78.26	78.39	0.09	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.09	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.09	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.09	60.00	62.49	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.04	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.00	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.00	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.00	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.00	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.00	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00