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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:291.9
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:262
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14183.00.01%
14-15209.60.13%
13-16228.20.79%
12-17244.83.45%
11-18260.49.94%
10-19276.819.76%
9-20292.626.07%
8-21306.422.67%
7-22317.912.76%
6-23326.43.85%
5-24333.60.56%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maryland (32.6)B10A62-56L0%0.0
11-14Texas A&M (108.1)SECA76-53L0%0.0
11-17Akron (46.6)MACA72-62L0%0.0
11-22Wagner (259.6)NECH65-73L0%0.0
11-26St. Francis PA (276.1)NECH62-69L0%0.0
11-29Western Illinois (304.9)SumH57-50W100%0.0
12-3Howard (324.7)MEACA71-54L0%0.0
12-6New Hampshire (147.6)AEH70-80L0%0.0
12-10Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzH77-62W100%0.0
12-19Maryland Eastern Shore (302.8)MEACH61-58W100%0.0
12-21Villanova (3.3)BEA90-48L0%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (195.3)PatH66-68L0%0.0
1-2Colgate (294.6)PatA64-67W100%0.0
1-5Bucknell (94.9)PatH60-69L0%0.0
1-8Lehigh (100.0)PatA79-73L0%0.0
1-11Boston University (177.8)PatA76-66L0%0.0
1-14Army (241.5)PatH49-53L0%0.0
1-18Lafayette (317.9)PatH71-57W100%0.0
1-23Holy Cross (174.6)PatA0-025%-7.5
1-25Navy (220.9)PatH0-047%-0.8
1-29Colgate (294.6)PatH0-059%2.6
2-1Bucknell (94.9)PatA0-010%-14.3
2-4Lehigh (100.0)PatH0-022%-8.6
2-8Boston University (177.8)PatH0-036%-4.1
2-11Army (241.5)PatA0-026%-7.3
2-15Lafayette (317.9)PatA0-062%3.4
2-19Holy Cross (174.6)PatH0-046%-1.2
2-22Navy (220.9)PatA0-027%-7.0
2-25Loyola MD (195.3)PatA0-032%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AmericanPat26.4526.3923.1728.39-14.19-11.41
Holy CrossPat0.554.4350.0050.760.000.07
Boston UniversityPat3.184.4247.0650.87-0.190.08
LehighPat3.164.4250.0061.450.001.01
LafayettePat3.164.4231.2524.08-1.18-2.29
BucknellPat3.094.4068.4270.301.141.79
ColgatePat3.084.4022.2227.76-1.71-1.96
ArmyPat3.174.3935.2939.35-0.93-0.94
NavyPat0.464.3944.4445.39-0.05-0.41
Loyola MDPat3.164.3943.7543.33-0.40-0.59
St. Francis PANEC2.941.8831.2542.06-1.10-0.30
New HampshireAE2.851.8453.3356.560.190.24
HowardMEAC2.941.816.6725.93-2.55-0.87
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.941.8113.3335.03-2.16-0.54
VillanovaBE2.861.7994.4488.912.541.39
WagnerNEC2.781.7933.3345.60-0.93-0.16
AkronMAC2.941.7882.3576.171.900.93
Texas A&MSEC2.861.7550.0049.330.00-0.02
MarylandB102.861.7588.2472.932.190.80
Youngstown St.Horz2.851.7538.8934.79-0.63-0.53
Western IllinoisSum2.781.7228.5728.68-1.19-0.74
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.3040.0050.05-0.080.00
BinghamtonAE0.400.2735.2937.32-0.12-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.390.2735.0039.76-0.12-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.410.2555.5654.430.050.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.330.2563.1660.780.090.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.2515.7920.51-0.16-0.15
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.2440.0040.81-0.05-0.04
BryantNEC0.260.2221.0533.56-0.15-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.250.2240.0040.47-0.05-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.320.2147.0649.89-0.02-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2146.1546.15-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.1841.1846.85-0.04-0.01
MaineAE0.160.1820.0020.95-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.230.1860.0066.110.050.06
AlbanyAE0.160.1852.6358.980.010.03
SyracuseACC0.150.1757.8952.520.020.01
UMBCAE0.090.1562.5058.830.020.03
DuquesneA100.240.1547.3741.47-0.01-0.03
NJITASun0.240.1538.8942.49-0.05-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.240.1555.5656.750.030.02
PennIvy0.150.1542.8647.98-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1575.0074.450.080.07
Notre DameACC0.230.1584.2176.540.160.08
Ohio St.B100.070.1563.1658.020.020.02
La SalleA100.220.1568.7564.060.080.04
CreightonBE0.230.1594.4484.720.210.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.1414.2929.27-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1364.7162.600.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.1311.1116.28-0.07-0.08
HartfordAE0.000.1230.0028.54-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1264.7165.930.050.04
ProvidenceBE0.170.1265.0055.280.050.01
CornellIvy0.150.1220.0024.53-0.09-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.120.0014.44-0.09-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1260.0072.810.020.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.1263.1659.530.040.02
XavierBE0.150.1272.2267.680.070.04
MarquetteBE0.240.1266.6761.530.080.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1218.7535.73-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.160.1152.6348.210.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.1144.4442.60-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.140.1184.2178.340.100.06
IUPUISum0.180.1038.8943.16-0.04-0.01
DenverSum0.170.1057.8955.950.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.0926.3228.81-0.08-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.160.0935.2941.77-0.05-0.02
DetroitHorz0.160.0916.6723.07-0.11-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0937.5044.55-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.170.0978.9576.890.100.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.0970.5958.250.070.01
TowsonCAA0.160.0952.6354.610.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.160.0966.6762.870.050.02
Miami OHMAC0.170.0937.5034.55-0.04-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.0947.0646.29-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0912.5024.37-0.00-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0960.0061.270.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0912.5019.98-0.07-0.05
MichiganB100.250.0963.1658.150.070.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0963.1660.390.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.0941.1837.57-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0973.6869.690.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.0922.2225.60-0.09-0.04
Penn St.B100.070.0957.8949.820.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0958.3361.560.010.02
RichmondA100.150.0861.1157.870.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0882.3574.990.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0853.3356.530.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.0861.1155.580.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0831.2536.88-0.06-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.0741.1846.18-0.03-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0764.7166.910.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0752.6353.100.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0722.2229.94-0.05-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0755.0054.820.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0731.5833.41-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0675.0077.360.040.03
Kansas St.B120.170.0677.7862.260.090.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0633.3333.71-0.03-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0660.0065.720.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0683.3380.700.060.04
TempleAmer0.160.0650.0053.120.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0621.0528.89-0.04-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0626.3232.63-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0617.6529.60-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0652.9458.360.000.01
George WashingtonA100.170.0652.6348.070.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.150.0652.9450.950.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0626.6740.16-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0637.5042.27-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0652.9451.110.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0668.4252.190.030.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0655.5656.000.010.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0672.2274.630.000.03
OregonP120.080.0688.8983.420.060.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0625.0031.85-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0670.5964.080.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0677.7877.270.040.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0661.1156.230.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.0652.6352.920.010.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0663.1657.700.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.0677.7862.530.090.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0652.9452.870.000.00
UCFAmer0.160.0677.7867.020.090.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0677.7870.290.050.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0643.7542.60-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.0661.1153.360.030.00
IowaB100.080.0655.0049.300.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0688.8987.510.060.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0678.9570.150.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0629.4125.93-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0655.5642.900.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0633.3328.99-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0652.9451.300.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0652.9438.780.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0635.2935.14-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1130.39-0.01-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0635.0036.31-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0631.5829.24-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0631.2538.34-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0666.6767.550.030.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0642.1141.75-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0664.7167.120.000.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0666.6758.230.020.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0640.0045.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0645.0038.54-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0637.5044.96-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0316.6718.29-0.06-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0331.5835.67-0.03-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0328.5734.62-0.04-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0321.4323.06-0.05-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0357.8952.960.010.00
WinthropBSth0.090.0375.0075.420.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0325.0023.83-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0347.3734.50-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0352.9450.600.010.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0311.7621.45-0.06-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0341.1849.23-0.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0352.9450.590.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0364.7169.700.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0326.3227.72-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0361.1162.280.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0343.7541.41-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0352.9455.050.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.090.0318.7524.05-0.05-0.02
VCUA100.090.0373.6870.630.040.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0378.9582.980.050.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0364.7157.700.000.00
ArizonaP120.080.0389.4784.510.060.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6755.390.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0337.5044.22-0.02-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0343.7543.70-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7874.930.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0364.7158.520.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0368.4264.610.030.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0361.1155.030.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0378.9569.160.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0325.0034.04-0.04-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0352.9450.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0363.1651.610.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0342.8650.49-0.010.00
UCLAP120.080.0395.0089.690.070.02
USCP120.080.0380.0071.930.050.01
WisconsinB100.000.0383.3381.320.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.100.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0356.2551.810.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0362.5060.090.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.03100.0097.320.080.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.070.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0333.3343.06-0.03-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0053.460.000.00
RadfordBSth0.080.0341.1844.82-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.080.0352.6360.240.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.3576.300.000.01