


| Conference: | Pat |
| Expected RPI: | 150.9 |
| Current RPI: | 147 |
| Expected SOS: | 297 |
| Current SOS: | 319 |
| Current Record: | 15-8 |
| Expected Record: | 19-10 |
| Current Conf Record: | 6-2 |
| Expected Conf Record: | 10-4 |
| Probability of Auto Bid: | 7.02% |
| Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: | 0-1 |
| Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: | 1-0 |
| Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: | 1-3 |
| Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: | 4-3 |
| Expected Record vs RPI 200+: | 13-4 |
| Current OOC Record: | 9-6 |
| Expected OOC Record: | 9-6 |
| Expected OOC RPI: | 164 |
| Expected OOC SOS: | 321 |
| Final Record | Expected RPI | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21-8 | 106.9 | 2.56% |
| 20-9 | 124.6 | 15.87% |
| 19-10 | 141.2 | 31.48% |
| 18-11 | 159.4 | 32.30% |
| 17-12 | 178.9 | 14.84% |
| 16-13 | 197.9 | 2.75% |
| 15-14 | 215.5 | 0.19% |
| Date | Opponent (Expected RPI) | Conf | Loc | Score | Outcome | Prob(W) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-11 | Richmond (135.3) | A10 | A | 66-56 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 11-14 | Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1) | MEAC | A | 64-62 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 11-16 | Florida Atlantic (179.8) | SB | H | 62-56 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 11-19 | Columbia (150.3) | Ivy | A | 58-66 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 11-22 | Quinnipiac (175.1) | NEC | H | 74-73 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 11-27 | Cornell (178.3) | Ivy | A | 63-65 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 11-29 | Howard (313.9) | MEAC | H | 77-66 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 12-1 | MD Baltimore County (332.6) | AE | H | 69-58 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 12-4 | Saint Joseph's (49.2) | A10 | H | 66-60 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 12-7 | Hampton (307.2) | MEAC | H | 74-72 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 12-10 | St. Francis PA (303.9) | NEC | A | 66-61 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 12-17 | Georgetown (13.9) | BE | A | 81-55 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 12-22 | Villanova (98.5) | BE | A | 73-52 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 12-29 | Mount St. Mary's (291.1) | NEC | A | 49-42 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 1-2 | Brown (305.2) | Ivy | A | 61-70 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 1-7 | Colgate (296.0) | Pat | H | 82-54 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 1-11 | Lehigh (109.7) | Pat | A | 71-60 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 1-14 | Holy Cross (226.1) | Pat | H | 67-54 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 1-18 | Navy (318.8) | Pat | A | 60-67 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 1-21 | Army (293.1) | Pat | H | 67-55 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 1-25 | Bucknell (71.1) | Pat | A | 67-61 | L | 0% | 0.0 |
| 1-28 | Lafayette (210.2) | Pat | A | 61-69 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 2-4 | Colgate (296.0) | Pat | A | 58-59 | W | 100% | 0.0 |
| 2-9 | Lehigh (109.7) | Pat | H | 0-0 | 34% | -4.6 | |
| 2-11 | Holy Cross (226.1) | Pat | A | 0-0 | 56% | 1.7 | |
| 2-15 | Navy (318.8) | Pat | H | 0-0 | 89% | 13.4 | |
| 2-18 | Army (293.1) | Pat | A | 0-0 | 61% | 2.9 | |
| 2-23 | Bucknell (71.1) | Pat | H | 0-0 | 37% | -3.5 | |
| 2-25 | Lafayette (210.2) | Pat | H | 0-0 | 73% | 6.8 |

| Team | Conf | Curr Wgt | Fut Wgt | Curr W/L | Exp W/L | Curr Impact | Exp Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American | Pat | 26.23 | 26.30 | 74.19 | 68.80 | 12.69 | 9.89 |
| Lehigh | Pat | 2.77 | 4.30 | 72.73 | 74.30 | 1.26 | 2.09 |
| Colgate | Pat | 4.79 | 4.27 | 33.33 | 31.68 | -1.60 | -1.56 |
| Bucknell | Pat | 2.71 | 4.27 | 72.73 | 74.54 | 1.23 | 2.09 |
| Navy | Pat | 2.71 | 4.26 | 10.00 | 13.80 | -2.16 | -3.08 |
| Lafayette | Pat | 2.67 | 4.24 | 45.45 | 45.14 | -0.24 | -0.41 |
| Holy Cross | Pat | 2.61 | 4.21 | 42.86 | 43.60 | -0.37 | -0.54 |
| Army | Pat | 2.56 | 4.17 | 42.86 | 43.41 | -0.37 | -0.55 |
| St. Francis PA | NEC | 2.50 | 2.05 | 18.18 | 20.00 | -1.59 | -1.23 |
| Columbia | Ivy | 2.48 | 2.03 | 57.89 | 56.83 | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| Quinnipiac | NEC | 2.46 | 2.00 | 59.09 | 59.19 | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Cornell | Ivy | 2.38 | 1.96 | 38.89 | 43.04 | -0.53 | -0.27 |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | MEAC | 2.32 | 1.94 | 15.79 | 17.00 | -1.59 | -1.28 |
| Howard | MEAC | 2.38 | 1.87 | 19.05 | 23.04 | -1.47 | -1.01 |
| Richmond | A10 | 2.32 | 1.87 | 47.83 | 46.77 | -0.10 | -0.12 |
| Brown | Ivy | 2.17 | 1.85 | 28.57 | 24.62 | -0.93 | -0.94 |
| Mount St. Mary's | NEC | 2.32 | 1.85 | 22.73 | 26.05 | -1.27 | -0.88 |
| Hampton | MEAC | 2.32 | 1.84 | 38.10 | 39.81 | -0.55 | -0.38 |
| Saint Joseph's | A10 | 2.27 | 1.81 | 65.22 | 64.57 | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| Georgetown | BE | 2.22 | 1.78 | 80.00 | 76.54 | 1.33 | 0.95 |
| Villanova | BE | 2.22 | 1.78 | 42.86 | 44.22 | -0.32 | -0.21 |
| Florida Atlantic | SB | 2.17 | 1.72 | 38.10 | 41.19 | -0.52 | -0.30 |
| MD Baltimore County | AE | 2.17 | 1.72 | 14.29 | 16.94 | -1.55 | -1.14 |
| Dartmouth | Ivy | 0.40 | 0.42 | 14.29 | 17.17 | -0.29 | -0.28 |
| St. Francis NY | NEC | 0.48 | 0.39 | 56.52 | 55.95 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Sacred Heart | NEC | 0.43 | 0.35 | 44.00 | 45.89 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| Yale | Ivy | 0.24 | 0.34 | 72.22 | 63.19 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Monmouth | NEC | 0.39 | 0.33 | 28.00 | 28.91 | -0.17 | -0.14 |
| Pennsylvania | Ivy | 0.35 | 0.33 | 54.55 | 56.84 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Bryant | NEC | 0.34 | 0.33 | 8.33 | 10.86 | -0.28 | -0.26 |
| Harvard | Ivy | 0.31 | 0.30 | 90.48 | 87.91 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Princeton | Ivy | 0.26 | 0.30 | 47.37 | 52.87 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| Central Connecticut | NEC | 0.24 | 0.30 | 45.45 | 45.70 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | NEC | 0.34 | 0.30 | 8.70 | 12.13 | -0.28 | -0.23 |
| Albany | AE | 0.40 | 0.27 | 60.00 | 60.42 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Binghamton | AE | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 4.02 | -0.30 | -0.25 |
| La Salle | A10 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 70.83 | 68.82 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Long Island | NEC | 0.29 | 0.24 | 70.83 | 71.05 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| Wagner | NEC | 0.19 | 0.24 | 82.61 | 84.57 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Boston University | AE | 0.30 | 0.24 | 48.00 | 51.88 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| Norfolk St. | MEAC | 0.20 | 0.21 | 68.18 | 69.68 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Marist | MAAC | 0.25 | 0.21 | 34.78 | 33.43 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| NJ Inst of Technology | GWC | 0.24 | 0.21 | 33.33 | 38.38 | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| Hartford | AE | 0.24 | 0.21 | 17.39 | 20.97 | -0.16 | -0.12 |
| New Hampshire | AE | 0.24 | 0.21 | 35.00 | 38.58 | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Coppin St. | MEAC | 0.19 | 0.21 | 42.11 | 49.81 | -0.03 | -0.00 |
| Morgan St. | MEAC | 0.19 | 0.21 | 25.00 | 37.58 | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| Fordham | A10 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 40.91 | 34.50 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Longwood | ind | 0.20 | 0.18 | 30.00 | 27.84 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Delaware St. | MEAC | 0.16 | 0.18 | 35.29 | 39.85 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| Providence | BE | 0.15 | 0.18 | 56.52 | 50.27 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Delaware | CAA | 0.20 | 0.18 | 47.83 | 50.65 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
| St. John's | BE | 0.20 | 0.18 | 43.48 | 40.28 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Syracuse | BE | 0.19 | 0.18 | 95.83 | 92.01 | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Robert Morris | NEC | 0.14 | 0.18 | 68.00 | 70.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Connecticut | BE | 0.16 | 0.15 | 68.18 | 63.99 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Savannah St. | MEAC | 0.20 | 0.15 | 52.38 | 57.86 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Maine | AE | 0.20 | 0.15 | 50.00 | 49.73 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Penn St. | B10 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 41.67 | 38.67 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Marquette | BE | 0.20 | 0.15 | 79.17 | 75.98 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| William & Mary | CAA | 0.19 | 0.15 | 12.50 | 13.44 | -0.14 | -0.11 |
| Rutgers | BE | 0.20 | 0.15 | 50.00 | 46.81 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Presbyterian | BSth | 0.10 | 0.13 | 40.91 | 43.66 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Siena | MAAC | 0.15 | 0.12 | 45.45 | 45.55 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Stony Brook | AE | 0.16 | 0.12 | 66.67 | 68.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| South Florida | BE | 0.15 | 0.12 | 54.55 | 48.60 | 0.01 | -0.00 |
| George Mason | CAA | 0.15 | 0.12 | 76.00 | 72.50 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Loyola MD | MAAC | 0.14 | 0.12 | 77.27 | 73.45 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.09 | 0.12 | 69.57 | 65.87 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| St. Bonaventure | A10 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 60.00 | 59.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Liberty | BSth | 0.14 | 0.12 | 27.27 | 27.21 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| George Washington | A10 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 34.78 | 32.08 | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Massachusetts | A10 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 73.91 | 68.58 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Temple | A10 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 77.27 | 75.06 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Elon | SC | 0.11 | 0.09 | 50.00 | 47.59 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Tulane | CUSA | 0.11 | 0.09 | 61.90 | 58.59 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Missouri | B12 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 91.30 | 87.18 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Air Force | MWC | 0.10 | 0.09 | 47.37 | 42.16 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Kansas | B12 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 78.26 | 78.39 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Fairfield | MAAC | 0.10 | 0.09 | 54.55 | 54.30 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Bethune Cookman | MEAC | 0.05 | 0.09 | 38.10 | 42.78 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Florida A&M | MEAC | 0.05 | 0.09 | 19.05 | 22.37 | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| North Carolina Central | MEAC | 0.10 | 0.09 | 38.89 | 43.93 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Hofstra | CAA | 0.14 | 0.09 | 32.00 | 35.39 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| Western Kentucky | SB | 0.09 | 0.09 | 34.78 | 34.48 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Pittsburgh | BE | 0.10 | 0.09 | 60.87 | 58.16 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 69.57 | 61.31 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Niagara | MAAC | 0.14 | 0.09 | 37.50 | 41.54 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| Vermont | AE | 0.10 | 0.09 | 60.00 | 62.49 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Cincinnati | BE | 0.10 | 0.09 | 69.57 | 65.47 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Seton Hall | BE | 0.09 | 0.09 | 65.22 | 63.74 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Rhode Island | A10 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 20.83 | 20.60 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| St. Louis | A10 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 77.27 | 77.67 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Charlotte | A10 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 50.00 | 49.45 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Mercer | ASun | 0.05 | 0.06 | 70.83 | 71.64 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Maryland | ACC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 59.09 | 50.82 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Boston College | ACC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 30.43 | 26.44 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| College of Charleston | SC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 58.33 | 59.98 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Florida International | SB | 0.10 | 0.06 | 33.33 | 37.16 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Kansas St. | B12 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 72.73 | 68.28 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Memphis | CUSA | 0.10 | 0.06 | 69.57 | 71.51 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Middle Tennessee | SB | 0.05 | 0.06 | 83.33 | 84.76 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| North Carolina A&T | MEAC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 33.33 | 37.25 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| North Texas | SB | 0.05 | 0.06 | 50.00 | 50.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| San Francisco | WCC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 56.52 | 53.77 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| South Alabama | SB | 0.05 | 0.06 | 52.38 | 52.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Texas Pan American | GWC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 19.05 | 24.61 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| The Citadel | SC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 9.52 | 11.44 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Troy | SB | 0.05 | 0.06 | 28.57 | 30.17 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Indiana | B10 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 75.00 | 75.78 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Rider | MAAC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 37.50 | 38.52 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Illinois | B10 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 72.73 | 64.43 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| DePaul | BE | 0.10 | 0.06 | 50.00 | 42.83 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Louisville | BE | 0.10 | 0.06 | 78.26 | 72.66 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 68.00 | 69.07 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Notre Dame | BE | 0.00 | 0.06 | 65.22 | 62.65 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| South Carolina St. | MEAC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 10.00 | 14.93 | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| West Virginia | BE | 0.10 | 0.06 | 65.22 | 65.17 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Eastern Kentucky | OVC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 50.00 | 51.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 0.09 | 0.06 | 40.91 | 38.38 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Iowa St. | B12 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 73.91 | 68.43 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Michigan St. | B10 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 76.19 | 72.91 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Morehead St. | OVC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 45.45 | 46.99 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| St. Peter's | MAAC | 0.05 | 0.06 | 21.74 | 24.58 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 75.00 | 73.97 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| NC Greensboro | SC | 0.10 | 0.06 | 34.78 | 33.46 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Old Dominion | CAA | 0.09 | 0.06 | 60.00 | 58.29 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Drexel | CAA | 0.09 | 0.06 | 79.17 | 78.10 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | CAA | 0.09 | 0.06 | 80.00 | 78.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Dayton | A10 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 60.87 | 60.96 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Duquesne | A10 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 59.09 | 56.35 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Iona | MAAC | 0.09 | 0.06 | 79.17 | 80.10 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Xavier | A10 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 65.22 | 63.74 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 0.06 | 0.03 | 68.42 | 66.45 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Alabama | SEC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 68.18 | 69.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Arkansas Little Rock | SB | 0.05 | 0.03 | 43.48 | 44.25 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Arkansas St. | SB | 0.05 | 0.03 | 37.50 | 38.33 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 47.62 | 48.82 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| Denver | SB | 0.00 | 0.03 | 70.83 | 72.23 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Furman | SC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 47.62 | 48.83 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| Georgia St. | CAA | 0.05 | 0.03 | 66.67 | 69.69 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| IUPUI | Sum | 0.05 | 0.03 | 34.78 | 35.50 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Louisiana Lafayette | SB | 0.05 | 0.03 | 54.17 | 54.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louisiana Monroe | SB | 0.05 | 0.03 | 8.70 | 8.99 | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 42.86 | 43.45 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Loyola Marymount | WCC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 59.09 | 57.76 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 65.00 | 60.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Mississippi St. | SEC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 78.26 | 72.34 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Oregon St. | P12 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 63.64 | 63.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Portland | WCC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 21.74 | 21.70 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Portland St. | BSky | 0.05 | 0.03 | 42.86 | 45.80 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Rice | CUSA | 0.05 | 0.03 | 47.62 | 46.46 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| Virginia | ACC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 81.82 | 76.80 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Washington | P12 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 69.57 | 66.54 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 76.19 | 70.73 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Canisius | MAAC | 0.00 | 0.03 | 17.39 | 19.81 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| Towson | CAA | 0.05 | 0.03 | 4.00 | 5.26 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| Virginia Military Inst | BSth | 0.05 | 0.03 | 45.00 | 44.15 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| Youngstown St. | Horz | 0.05 | 0.03 | 50.00 | 51.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| High Point | BSth | 0.05 | 0.03 | 31.82 | 32.75 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Iowa | B10 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 54.17 | 49.44 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| James Madison | CAA | 0.05 | 0.03 | 40.00 | 40.18 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Santa Clara | WCC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 28.57 | 26.30 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| SIU Edwardsville | OVC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 26.32 | 29.71 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| UC Riverside | BW | 0.05 | 0.03 | 42.86 | 39.66 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Utah Valley | GWC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 54.55 | 57.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Creighton | MVC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 87.50 | 85.41 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Davidson | SC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 76.19 | 76.76 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 39.13 | 42.12 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 0.05 | 0.03 | 60.87 | 59.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| UCLA | P12 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 54.55 | 56.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 0.05 | 0.03 | 47.83 | 43.66 | -0.00 | -0.00 |