The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated American page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

American

Conference:		Pat
Expected RPI:		306.9
Current RPI:		312
Expected SOS:		315
Current SOS:		311
Current Record:		7-16
Expected Record:		9-20
Current Conf Record:		4-4
Expected Conf Record:		6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		8-12
Current OOC Record:		3-12
Expected OOC Record:		3-12
Expected OOC RPI:		340
Expected OOC SOS:		336

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	262.4	0.31%
12-17	274.2	3.49%
11-18	289.0	13.88%
10-19	302.4	28.66%
9-20	312.3	30.67%
8-21	320.3	18.76%
7-22	327.5	4.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	St. Francis PA (312.5)	NEC	A	61-65	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Albany (293.1)	AE	H	50-51	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Mount St. Mary's (186.5)	NEC	H	62-73	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Florida Atlantic (201.1)	SB	H	69-81	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Fairfield (108.8)	MAAC	H	56-72	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Manhattan (240.2)	MAAC	H	62-69	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Maryland Eastern Shore (313.8)	MEAC	A	58-65	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	59-53	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Georgetown (8.9)	BE	A	46-73	L	0%	0.0
12-16	DePaul (180.2)	BE	A	62-57	W	100%	0.0
12-20	MD Baltimore County (339.8)	AE	H	57-59	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Penn St. (209.9)	B10	A	57-76	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Florida (50.5)	SEC	A	60-76	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Brown (266.3)	Ivy	A	76-68	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Columbia (250.1)	Ivy	A	51-56	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Lehigh (160.8)	Pat	A	67-78	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Bucknell (276.3)	Pat	A	68-72	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Colgate (306.0)	Pat	H	73-63	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Army (204.0)	Pat	A	48-68	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Holy Cross (269.0)	Pat	H	71-64	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Navy (269.1)	Pat	H	69-59	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Lafayette (203.7)	Pat	A	76-66	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Lehigh (160.8)	Pat	H	65-77	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Bucknell (276.3)	Pat	H	0-0		56%	1.5
2-13	Colgate (306.0)	Pat	A	0-0		31%	-5.4
2-17	Army (204.0)	Pat	H	0-0		42%	-2.2
2-21	Holy Cross (269.0)	Pat	A	0-0		23%	-8.2
2-24	Navy (269.1)	Pat	A	0-0		37%	-3.7
2-27	Lafayette (203.7)	Pat	H	0-0		52%	0.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against American.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
American	Pat	26.19	26.28	30.28	32.04	-10.33	-9.44
Lehigh	Pat	4.74	4.23	61.90	63.20	1.13	1.12
Lafayette	Pat	2.71	4.26	63.64	61.74	0.74	1.00
Navy	Pat	2.70	4.26	50.00	45.70	0.00	-0.37
Bucknell	Pat	2.66	4.24	34.78	36.87	-0.81	-1.11
Holy Cross	Pat	2.66	4.23	27.27	30.48	-1.21	-1.65
Army	Pat	2.61	4.19	55.00	57.44	0.26	0.62
Colgate	Pat	2.56	4.17	28.57	30.81	-1.10	-1.60
Columbia	Ivy	2.46	1.99	36.84	36.88	-0.65	-0.52
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.41	1.96	27.27	27.78	-1.09	-0.87
Brown	Ivy	2.33	1.91	25.00	28.28	-1.16	-0.83
Howard	MEAC	2.32	1.87	26.09	27.53	-1.11	-0.84
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.32	1.87	36.36	45.78	-0.63	-0.16
Georgetown	BE	2.32	1.84	76.19	72.41	1.21	0.83
Fairfield	MAAC	2.31	1.87	68.18	63.24	0.84	0.50
DePaul	BE	2.28	1.78	36.36	35.06	-0.62	-0.53
Albany	AE	2.27	1.82	20.00	23.30	-1.36	-0.97
Manhattan	MAAC	2.27	1.82	30.43	33.02	-0.89	-0.62
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.27	1.84	23.81	26.96	-1.19	-0.85
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.26	1.81	4.55	8.30	-2.06	-1.51
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.26	1.78	42.86	45.46	-0.32	-0.16
Penn St.	B10	2.22	1.75	31.82	29.89	-0.81	-0.71
Florida	SEC	2.17	1.72	72.73	66.65	0.99	0.57
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.44	0.33	43.48	43.78	-0.06	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.40	0.33	36.36	38.12	-0.11	-0.08
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.39	0.33	52.17	53.84	0.02	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.38	0.36	68.18	68.72	0.14	0.13
Long Island	NEC	0.38	0.33	39.13	41.53	-0.08	-0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.37	0.30	4.17	4.73	-0.34	-0.27
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.34	0.27	69.57	71.78	0.13	0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.34	0.30	16.00	21.62	-0.23	-0.17
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.32	0.26	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.30	0.36	15.79	17.64	-0.20	-0.24
Syracuse	BE	0.29	0.24	95.83	91.37	0.27	0.20
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.28	0.33	16.67	19.94	-0.19	-0.20
Rider	MAAC	0.28	0.21	52.00	49.34	0.01	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.21	83.33	81.25	0.19	0.13
Boston University	AE	0.27	0.20	54.17	57.70	0.02	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.25	0.21	23.81	29.40	-0.13	-0.09
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	63.64	61.86	0.07	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.23	0.27	39.13	41.19	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.18	58.33	58.93	0.04	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.18	66.67	64.02	0.08	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.23	0.15	44.00	45.15	-0.03	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.23	0.17	70.83	73.80	0.10	0.08
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.17	68.00	67.20	0.08	0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.18	85.71	85.57	0.15	0.13
Bryant	ind	0.20	0.24	0.00	4.18	-0.20	-0.22
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.27	73.68	75.41	0.10	0.14
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.27	70.59	70.98	0.08	0.11
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.21	33.33	33.00	-0.06	-0.07
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.12	65.22	66.09	0.06	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.24	35.00	38.23	-0.06	-0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.19	0.17	11.11	20.93	-0.15	-0.10
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.14	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.19	0.15	41.67	42.69	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.19	0.15	39.13	36.57	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.19	0.15	22.22	27.56	-0.10	-0.07
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.14	75.00	71.23	0.09	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.18	54.55	55.07	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.18	52.00	51.84	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.18	0.20	30.43	32.48	-0.07	-0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.17	39.13	38.63	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.12	54.55	49.24	0.01	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.09	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.12	86.36	81.50	0.11	0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.09	81.82	72.57	0.09	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.12	60.87	56.49	0.03	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.21	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.09	47.83	47.55	-0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.09	90.91	82.52	0.12	0.06
Providence	BE	0.14	0.15	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.09	73.91	70.80	0.07	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	19.05	22.94	-0.09	-0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.09	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.15	70.83	63.39	0.06	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.11	76.19	73.20	0.07	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.15	72.00	70.73	0.06	0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.12	55.00	52.00	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	62.18	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	71.43	67.85	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.06	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.06	72.00	73.54	0.04	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.12	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.03
Troy	SB	0.10	0.09	47.62	50.38	-0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	31.82	29.58	-0.04	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.11	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.08	31.82	42.24	-0.03	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	23.81	27.28	-0.05	-0.04
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.09	0.06	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.06	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.06	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	73.72	0.05	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.08	81.82	75.66	0.06	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.12	22.73	23.47	-0.05	-0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	78.26	78.92	0.05	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.06	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.12	26.09	26.91	-0.04	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.06	9.52	8.87	-0.07	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.12	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.06	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	61.90	65.68	0.01	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	21.05	22.43	-0.03	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	83.33	83.91	0.03	0.02
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.58	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
New Orleans	SB	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.86	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.09	4.76	9.78	-0.04	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.69	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	37.37	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	50.00	55.36	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P10	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.02	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	73.91	69.49	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.11	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.57	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	95.65	88.67	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	31.82	31.64	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.32	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.91	0.03	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	86.36	81.80	0.03	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.41	0.01	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	14.29	15.65	-0.03	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	8.70	10.09	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	86.36	82.20	0.03	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.62	0.00	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	28.57	27.72	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.08	25.00	34.68	-0.02	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	86.96	84.62	0.03	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	68.42	67.04	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	68.18	66.65	0.02	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.04	0.03	0.00	5.15	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	42.62	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	60.87	55.54	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.00	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.00	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.06	69.57	67.93	0.00	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.43	0.00	0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
American	Pat	26.19	26.28	30.28	32.04	-10.33	-9.44
Lafayette	Pat	2.71	4.26	63.64	61.74	0.74	1.00
Navy	Pat	2.70	4.26	50.00	45.70	0.00	-0.37
Bucknell	Pat	2.66	4.24	34.78	36.87	-0.81	-1.11
Lehigh	Pat	4.74	4.23	61.90	63.20	1.13	1.12
Holy Cross	Pat	2.66	4.23	27.27	30.48	-1.21	-1.65
Army	Pat	2.61	4.19	55.00	57.44	0.26	0.62
Colgate	Pat	2.56	4.17	28.57	30.81	-1.10	-1.60
Columbia	Ivy	2.46	1.99	36.84	36.88	-0.65	-0.52
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.41	1.96	27.27	27.78	-1.09	-0.87
Brown	Ivy	2.33	1.91	25.00	28.28	-1.16	-0.83
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.32	1.87	36.36	45.78	-0.63	-0.16
Fairfield	MAAC	2.31	1.87	68.18	63.24	0.84	0.50
Howard	MEAC	2.32	1.87	26.09	27.53	-1.11	-0.84
Georgetown	BE	2.32	1.84	76.19	72.41	1.21	0.83
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.27	1.84	23.81	26.96	-1.19	-0.85
Albany	AE	2.27	1.82	20.00	23.30	-1.36	-0.97
Manhattan	MAAC	2.27	1.82	30.43	33.02	-0.89	-0.62
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.26	1.81	4.55	8.30	-2.06	-1.51
DePaul	BE	2.28	1.78	36.36	35.06	-0.62	-0.53
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.26	1.78	42.86	45.46	-0.32	-0.16
Penn St.	B10	2.22	1.75	31.82	29.89	-0.81	-0.71
Florida	SEC	2.17	1.72	72.73	66.65	0.99	0.57
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.30	0.36	15.79	17.64	-0.20	-0.24
Stony Brook	AE	0.38	0.36	68.18	68.72	0.14	0.13
Yale	Ivy	0.40	0.33	36.36	38.12	-0.11	-0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.38	0.33	39.13	41.53	-0.08	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.44	0.33	43.48	43.78	-0.06	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.39	0.33	52.17	53.84	0.02	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.28	0.33	16.67	19.94	-0.19	-0.20
Wagner	NEC	0.34	0.30	16.00	21.62	-0.23	-0.17
Marist	MAAC	0.37	0.30	4.17	4.73	-0.34	-0.27
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.27	70.59	70.98	0.08	0.11
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.27	73.68	75.41	0.10	0.14
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.34	0.27	69.57	71.78	0.13	0.12
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.23	0.27	39.13	41.19	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.32	0.26	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.01
Bryant	ind	0.20	0.24	0.00	4.18	-0.20	-0.22
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.24	35.00	38.23	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	63.64	61.86	0.07	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.29	0.24	95.83	91.37	0.27	0.20
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.21	33.33	33.00	-0.06	-0.07
Longwood	ind	0.25	0.21	23.81	29.40	-0.13	-0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.28	0.21	52.00	49.34	0.01	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.21	47.83	42.90	-0.01	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.21	83.33	81.25	0.19	0.13
Hartford	AE	0.18	0.20	30.43	32.48	-0.07	-0.07
Boston University	AE	0.27	0.20	54.17	57.70	0.02	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.18	85.71	85.57	0.15	0.13
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.18	58.33	58.93	0.04	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.18	54.55	55.07	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.18	52.00	51.84	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.18	66.67	64.02	0.08	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.17	68.00	67.20	0.08	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.19	0.17	11.11	20.93	-0.15	-0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.17	39.13	38.63	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.23	0.17	70.83	73.80	0.10	0.08
Monmouth	NEC	0.19	0.15	41.67	42.69	-0.03	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.19	0.15	22.22	27.56	-0.10	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.19	0.15	39.13	36.57	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.23	0.15	44.00	45.15	-0.03	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.15	72.00	70.73	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.15	70.83	63.39	0.06	0.04
Providence	BE	0.14	0.15	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.14	47.06	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.14	75.00	71.23	0.09	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	19.05	22.94	-0.09	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.12	55.00	52.00	0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.12	60.87	56.49	0.03	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.12	86.36	81.50	0.11	0.07
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.12	22.73	23.47	-0.05	-0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.12	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.12	26.09	26.91	-0.04	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.12	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.12	54.55	49.24	0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.12	65.22	66.09	0.06	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.11	76.19	73.20	0.07	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.11	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.09	47.83	47.55	-0.01	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.10	0.09	47.62	50.38	-0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.09	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	62.18	0.03	0.02
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.09	4.76	9.78	-0.04	-0.07
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.09	73.91	70.80	0.07	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.09	90.91	82.52	0.12	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.09	81.82	72.57	0.09	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.09	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.09	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	73.72	0.05	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.08	31.82	42.24	-0.03	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	23.81	27.28	-0.05	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.08	25.00	34.68	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.08	81.82	75.66	0.06	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.74	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	61.90	65.68	0.01	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.06	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	21.05	22.43	-0.03	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	71.43	67.85	0.04	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.06	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.06	9.52	8.87	-0.07	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	31.82	31.64	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.91	0.03	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.06	72.00	73.54	0.04	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	52.38	56.23	0.00	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.62	0.00	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	67.94	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	60.87	55.54	0.00	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	62.07	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.06	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	31.82	29.58	-0.04	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	86.36	82.20	0.03	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.06	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.06	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.06	69.57	67.93	0.00	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	86.36	81.80	0.03	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	78.26	78.92	0.05	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.09	0.06	29.41	29.63	-0.04	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.06	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	95.65	88.67	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.41	0.01	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.58	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
New Orleans	SB	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.86	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.69	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	50.00	55.36	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	83.33	83.91	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	8.70	10.09	-0.04	-0.02
Washington	P10	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	68.18	66.65	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	28.57	27.72	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.02	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	20.00	23.58	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.57	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.32	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	37.37	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.04	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	57.29	0.02	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.04	0.03	0.00	5.15	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	42.62	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	73.91	69.49	0.02	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.11	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	86.96	84.62	0.03	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	68.42	67.04	0.02	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	14.29	15.65	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.43	0.00	0.01

BY CURRENT HELP INDEX: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Georgetown	BE	2.32	1.84	76.19	72.41	1.21	0.83
Lehigh	Pat	4.74	4.23	61.90	63.20	1.13	1.12
Florida	SEC	2.17	1.72	72.73	66.65	0.99	0.57
Fairfield	MAAC	2.31	1.87	68.18	63.24	0.84	0.50
Lafayette	Pat	2.71	4.26	63.64	61.74	0.74	1.00
Syracuse	BE	0.29	0.24	95.83	91.37	0.27	0.20
Army	Pat	2.61	4.19	55.00	57.44	0.26	0.62
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.21	83.33	81.25	0.19	0.13
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.18	85.71	85.57	0.15	0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.38	0.36	68.18	68.72	0.14	0.13
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.34	0.27	69.57	71.78	0.13	0.12
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.09	90.91	82.52	0.12	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.12	86.36	81.50	0.11	0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.27	73.68	75.41	0.10	0.14
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.23	0.17	70.83	73.80	0.10	0.08
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.14	75.00	71.23	0.09	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.09	81.82	72.57	0.09	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.17	68.00	67.20	0.08	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.27	70.59	70.98	0.08	0.11
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.18	66.67	64.02	0.08	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.11	76.19	73.20	0.07	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.09	73.91	70.80	0.07	0.04
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	63.64	61.86	0.07	0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.08	81.82	75.66	0.06	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.15	72.00	70.73	0.06	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.12	65.22	66.09	0.06	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.15	70.83	63.39	0.06	0.04
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.06	78.26	78.92	0.05	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	73.72	0.05	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	95.65	88.67	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.06	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.06	72.00	73.54	0.04	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	71.43	67.85	0.04	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.09	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.04	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.18	58.33	58.93	0.04	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.48	0.04	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.06	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	86.36	81.80	0.03	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	86.36	82.20	0.03	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	86.96	84.62	0.03	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	83.33	83.91	0.03	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.12	60.87	56.49	0.03	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.06	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.91	0.03	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	62.18	0.03	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	79.17	76.61	0.03	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	73.91	69.49	0.02	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.27	0.20	54.17	57.70	0.02	0.03
Washington	P10	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.86	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.06	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.18	54.55	55.07	0.02	0.02