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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:268.9
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:203
Current Record:7-18
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18235.52.44%
10-19251.017.13%
9-20265.638.39%
8-21278.632.45%
7-22289.59.58%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rhode Island (108.9)A10A65-42L0%0.0
11-17Hampton (194.6)MEACH48-61L0%0.0
11-21St. Francis PA (234.0)NECA68-48L0%0.0
11-25VCU (45.5)A10A72-44L0%0.0
11-28New Hampshire (182.9)AEA50-68W100%0.0
12-1Mount St. Mary's (226.5)NECA81-56L0%0.0
12-4Youngstown St. (268.0)HorzA56-60W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (196.0)NECA55-48L0%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (40.9)AEH68-86L0%0.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (291.1)MEACH64-79L0%0.0
12-22LSU (77.8)SECA79-51L0%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (240.9)PatA75-67L0%0.0
1-3Colgate (217.9)PatH37-56L0%0.0
1-6Bucknell (187.9)PatA72-54L0%0.0
1-9Lehigh (196.7)PatH50-65L0%0.0
1-13Boston University (179.5)PatH50-61L0%0.0
1-17Army (216.0)PatA65-45L0%0.0
1-20Lafayette (325.4)PatA73-81W100%0.0
1-27Navy (177.4)PatA58-63W100%0.0
1-30Colgate (217.9)PatA49-54W100%0.0
2-1Holy Cross (286.3)PatH58-45W100%0.0
2-3Bucknell (187.9)PatH69-55W100%0.0
2-6Lehigh (196.7)PatA72-49L0%0.0
2-10Boston University (179.5)PatA71-51L0%0.0
2-13Army (216.0)PatH59-65L0%0.0
2-17Lafayette (325.4)PatH0-064%4.0
2-21Holy Cross (286.3)PatA0-032%-5.0
2-24Navy (177.4)PatH0-028%-6.4
2-27Loyola MD (240.9)PatH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AmericanPat26.4426.4033.3333.24-8.81-8.85
LehighPat4.814.4933.3338.37-1.60-1.04
Holy CrossPat2.864.4643.4840.02-0.37-0.89
Loyola MDPat2.934.4629.1730.26-1.22-1.76
Boston UniversityPat4.744.4454.1755.200.400.46
ColgatePat4.784.4345.4546.90-0.43-0.28
BucknellPat4.824.4350.0052.930.000.26
NavyPat2.814.4168.0067.431.011.54
ArmyPat4.744.4052.1752.120.210.19
LafayettePat2.814.4020.8321.04-1.64-2.55
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.382.0342.3145.51-0.37-0.18
New HampshireAE2.251.9761.9059.070.530.36
St. Francis PANEC2.241.9347.8348.69-0.10-0.05
Stony BrookAE2.171.9181.8282.381.381.24
WagnerNEC2.121.8460.8762.470.460.46
Rhode IslandA102.041.8154.1754.180.170.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.091.7925.0028.93-1.04-0.75
HamptonMEAC2.041.7557.1459.850.290.35
VCUA102.001.7570.8370.530.830.72
LSUSEC2.001.7262.5060.060.500.35
Youngstown St.Horz2.001.7230.4331.21-0.78-0.65
BinghamtonAE0.500.3624.0026.42-0.26-0.17
UMBCAE0.370.3623.0825.88-0.20-0.18
AlbanyAE0.380.3473.0873.780.170.16
Robert MorrisNEC0.410.3329.6330.87-0.17-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.3050.0050.880.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.3036.0037.33-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.300.2832.0031.16-0.11-0.10
BryantNEC0.330.2723.0823.72-0.18-0.14
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.2450.0051.400.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2440.0043.52-0.04-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.250.2237.5037.69-0.06-0.05
George WashingtonA100.200.2072.0070.430.090.08
HartfordAE0.170.1924.0024.54-0.09-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.210.1875.0077.280.110.10
ColumbiaIvy0.250.1865.2264.150.080.05
FairfieldMAAC0.200.1856.0055.650.020.02
NJITASun0.200.1857.6957.310.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1812.0012.46-0.12-0.13
George MasonA100.200.1836.0035.97-0.06-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1518.1825.29-0.08-0.08
FordhamA100.160.1550.0050.420.000.00
La SalleA100.160.1418.1820.09-0.10-0.09
MassachusettsA100.160.1443.4842.31-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.090.1352.0054.840.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.1213.0414.58-0.03-0.09
HowardMEAC0.090.1234.7836.55-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.170.1268.0064.130.060.03
CornellIvy0.120.1238.1036.77-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.120.1266.6766.950.040.04
BrownIvy0.130.1228.5728.84-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1242.3144.54-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.080.1283.3381.420.050.07
MaristMAAC0.120.1220.8322.46-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.120.1236.3638.01-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.080.1240.0039.62-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1233.3333.43-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.160.1284.0080.600.110.07
St. BonaventureA100.120.1273.9172.090.060.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.1125.0024.15-0.04-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1184.0081.460.110.07
FloridaSEC0.080.1164.0062.910.020.03
KentuckySEC0.120.1176.0074.450.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0945.8351.18-0.010.00
Notre DameACC0.130.0972.0070.180.060.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0950.0051.120.000.00
PurdueB100.130.0976.9275.980.070.05
MonmouthMAAC0.120.0980.7781.920.070.06
NortheasternCAA0.120.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.0952.0050.510.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0952.0049.600.00-0.00
TCUB120.120.0944.0039.06-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.0940.0039.15-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.0925.0024.93-0.06-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.0941.6744.46-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0948.0045.69-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.0979.1779.630.070.05
DuquesneA100.080.0960.8756.210.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0956.0059.610.010.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0962.5060.760.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0957.6956.200.010.01
DavidsonA100.040.0859.0955.710.010.01
DaytonA100.040.0887.5083.680.030.06
RichmondA100.080.0858.3356.260.010.01
Saint LouisA100.120.0833.3331.88-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.090.0687.5084.290.070.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0630.4334.38-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0618.1823.04-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0632.0033.77-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0628.5735.02-0.04-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0640.9141.22-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0647.8345.05-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0648.0045.86-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0680.0077.220.050.03
YaleIvy0.090.0676.1976.290.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0662.5059.800.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0660.0060.860.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0641.6737.79-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0623.0825.64-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0647.8346.26-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0654.1756.890.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0613.6413.35-0.03-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0658.3360.350.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0630.4332.19-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0665.3862.780.010.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0666.6766.290.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0643.4844.13-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0669.5767.210.020.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0664.0060.170.010.01
USCP120.040.0675.0071.170.020.03
Wright St.Horz0.040.0656.0057.240.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0638.4641.33-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0636.0032.69-0.01-0.02
IPFWSum0.040.0672.0069.300.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0645.8346.51-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.040.0676.0074.790.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0620.0019.75-0.05-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0626.0928.44-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.040.0619.0519.66-0.02-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.040.0662.5059.270.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0648.0050.99-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0672.0068.870.040.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0660.0061.790.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0672.0072.950.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.88-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0324.0027.56-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.62-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0372.0066.650.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.0070.630.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0333.3332.89-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0323.8124.32-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.060.030.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0368.0067.350.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0347.8349.74-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0317.3920.09-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.039.0911.96-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0343.4844.22-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0365.2264.480.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0368.1865.870.020.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0370.8368.070.020.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0324.0023.69-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0347.8343.64-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.8351.11-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0353.8551.690.000.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0356.0054.680.000.00
MichiganB100.040.0372.0068.710.020.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.510.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0323.0823.86-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0342.8646.51-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.670.020.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0362.5063.370.010.01
WoffordSC0.040.0348.0048.31-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0337.5034.54-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0354.1754.540.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0373.0871.580.020.01
DukeACC0.040.0376.0073.090.020.01
ElonCAA0.040.0348.0048.33-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0366.6763.280.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0360.8757.660.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0376.0076.260.020.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0358.3358.480.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0369.2369.940.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0328.0028.34-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0337.5038.73-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0361.5456.600.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0321.0529.38-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0369.5769.090.020.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0364.0061.040.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0341.6741.41-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0353.8551.650.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0361.5455.940.010.00
OklahomaB120.040.0383.3380.440.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0344.0043.30-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0313.0418.03-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0373.0870.170.020.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0350.0051.760.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0339.1337.90-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0383.3378.690.030.02
WashingtonP120.040.0360.0059.040.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0364.0060.000.010.01