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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:118.0
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:222
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12118.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8George Mason (164.0)A10A63-60L0%0.0
11-14UMBC (327.0)AEH63-61W100%0.0
11-20Ohio St. (24.0)B10A63-52L0%0.0
11-23Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA68-64L0%0.0
11-26Columbia (130.0)IvyA61-47L0%0.0
11-30St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA43-75W100%0.0
12-4Howard (323.0)MEACH76-53W100%0.0
12-7Brown (229.0)IvyH67-72L0%0.0
12-19Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA59-44L0%0.0
12-22San Francisco (68.0)WCCA77-69L0%0.0
12-29Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA58-71W100%0.0
1-2Bucknell (167.0)PatA57-67W100%0.0
1-5Holy Cross (127.0)PatA54-69W100%0.0
1-8Loyola MD (274.0)PatH65-51W100%0.0
1-11Colgate (256.0)PatA62-69W100%0.0
1-15Lehigh (236.0)PatA63-65W100%0.0
1-18Lafayette (258.0)PatH66-61W100%0.0
1-22Boston University (84.0)PatH86-56W100%0.0
1-25Army (235.0)PatA74-84W100%0.0
1-29Navy (321.0)PatH74-52W100%0.0
2-1Holy Cross (127.0)PatH63-57W100%0.0
2-5Loyola MD (274.0)PatA62-58L0%0.0
2-8Colgate (256.0)PatH60-63L0%0.0
2-12Lehigh (236.0)PatH64-44W100%0.0
2-15Lafayette (258.0)PatA74-62L0%0.0
2-19Boston University (84.0)PatA71-62L0%0.0
2-22Army (235.0)PatH58-54W100%0.0
2-26Navy (321.0)PatA55-64W100%0.0
3-1Bucknell (167.0)PatH51-56L0%0.0
3-5Colgate (256.0)PatH59-50W100%0.0
3-8Holy Cross (127.0)PatH57-46W100%0.0
3-12Boston University (84.0)PatA36-55W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AmericanPat26.5726.5766.6766.678.868.86
Boston UniversityPat5.725.7274.1974.192.772.77
ColgatePat5.705.7040.7440.74-1.06-1.06
Holy CrossPat5.665.6665.5265.521.761.76
NavyPat4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
ArmyPat4.234.2350.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat4.224.2246.6746.67-0.28-0.28
BucknellPat4.214.2153.5753.570.300.30
LafayettePat4.214.2132.1432.14-1.50-1.50
Loyola MDPat4.194.1933.3333.33-1.40-1.40
St. Francis PANEC1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
ColumbiaIvy1.831.8358.6258.620.320.32
UMBCAE1.831.8328.5728.57-0.78-0.78
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.771.7748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.741.7418.5218.52-1.10-1.10
Saint Mary'sWCC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
HowardMEAC1.621.6220.0020.00-0.97-0.97
BrownIvy1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA101.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
San FranciscoWCC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Ohio St.B101.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
AlbanyAE0.310.3156.2556.250.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.290.2923.3323.33-0.16-0.16
HarvardIvy0.280.2886.2186.210.200.20
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2816.1316.13-0.19-0.19
CornellIvy0.270.273.703.70-0.25-0.25
BryantNEC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.240.2470.3770.370.100.10
NJITind0.230.2336.0036.00-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
FordhamA100.230.2332.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
HartfordAE0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
PennIvy0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
YaleIvy0.160.1651.8551.850.010.01
New HampshireAE0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
George WashingtonA100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Penn St.B100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MinnesotaB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00