American

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	336.0
Current RPI:	336
Expected SOS:	310
Current SOS:	310
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-13
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	288
Expected OOC SOS:	286

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	336.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	83-45	L	0%
11-15	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	98-64	L	0%
11-18	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	71-70	L	0%
11-21	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	70-74	W	100%
11-25	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	69-64	W	100%
11-29	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	100-89	L	0%
12-2	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	A	74-70	L	0%
12-6	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	69-56	L	0%
12-9	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	74-63	W	100%
12-18	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	56-59	L	0%
12-21	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	92-51	L	0%
12-29	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	84-55	L	0%
1-2	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	63-72	L	0%
1-5	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	70-64	L	0%
1-8	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	54-58	L	0%
1-11	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	76-65	W	100%
1-14	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	76-66	L	0%
1-17	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	58-69	W	100%
1-20	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	53-62	L	0%
1-22	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	57-60	L	0%
1-27	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	83-69	L	0%
1-31	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	44-61	L	0%
2-3	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	82-70	L	0%
2-7	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	72-69	L	0%
2-10	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	78-80	L	0%
2-14	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	60-56	W	100%
2-17	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	90-85	L	0%
2-21	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	70-64	L	0%
2-24	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	61-80	L	0%
2-27	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	93-86	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
American	Pat	26.43	26.43	20.00	20.00	-15.86	-15.86
Lafayette	Pat	5.93	5.93	22.22	22.22	-3.29	-3.29
Colgate	Pat	4.45	4.45	55.17	55.17	0.46	0.46
Bucknell	Pat	4.44	4.44	71.88	71.88	1.94	1.94
Holy Cross	Pat	4.40	4.40	34.48	34.48	-1.37	-1.37
Boston University	Pat	4.40	4.40	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	4.40	4.40	25.00	25.00	-2.20	-2.20
Lehigh	Pat	4.37	4.37	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Navy	Pat	4.32	4.32	58.62	58.62	0.74	0.74
Army	Pat	4.31	4.31	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.92	1.92	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.84	1.84	55.56	55.56	0.20	0.20
Wagner	NEC	1.78	1.78	68.97	68.97	0.68	0.68
New Hampshire	AE	1.78	1.78	28.57	28.57	-0.76	-0.76
Howard	MEAC	1.72	1.72	26.67	26.67	-0.80	-0.80
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.72	1.72	13.79	13.79	-1.25	-1.25
West Virginia	B12	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Kansas St.	B12	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
Marquette	BE	1.69	1.69	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
VMI	SC	1.67	1.67	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
Western Illinois	Sum	1.67	1.67	30.43	30.43	-0.65	-0.65
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.31	0.31	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.25	0.25	9.68	9.68	-0.20	-0.20
Marist	MAAC	0.25	0.25	19.35	19.35	-0.15	-0.15
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Albany	AE	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.20	0.20	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.16	0.16	26.92	26.92	-0.08	-0.08
Penn	Ivy	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	15.62	15.62	-0.11	-0.11
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.14	0.14	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Monmouth	MAAC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00