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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:116.1
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:241
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-422.00.01%
25-532.00.01%
24-631.40.17%
23-744.50.60%
22-851.52.42%
21-962.45.16%
20-1075.69.19%
19-1189.014.09%
18-12103.716.61%
17-13119.916.94%
16-14136.715.07%
15-15155.69.95%
14-16173.75.53%
13-17193.62.69%
12-18212.11.09%
11-19233.00.31%
10-20247.70.14%
9-21278.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Temple (122.2)AmerA40-37L0%0.0
11-17St. Francis PA (249.7)NECH49-46W100%0.0
11-21Presbyterian (321.4)BSthN38-63W100%0.0
11-22Louisiana Tech (72.0)CUSAA63-44L0%0.0
11-23Morehead St. (165.2)OVCN51-46W100%0.0
11-26Hampton (275.1)MEACA0-065%4.5
11-29Columbia (116.1)IvyA0-032%-5.6
12-3Brown (262.5)IvyA0-062%3.5
12-6Illinois (46.1)B10A0-012%-14.1
12-16La Salle (112.0)A10A0-033%-5.2
12-20Mount St. Mary's (260.4)NECH0-085%12.7
12-23Stony Brook (105.4)AEA0-032%-5.5
12-31Bucknell (225.6)PatA0-058%2.4
1-3Holy Cross (109.3)PatH0-060%3.0
1-7Loyola MD (268.9)PatA0-069%6.1
1-10Colgate (220.9)PatH0-078%9.3
1-14Lehigh (240.5)PatH0-080%9.9
1-17Lafayette (122.1)PatA0-037%-3.8
1-21Boston University (107.2)PatA0-035%-4.5
1-26Army (133.1)PatH0-064%4.2
1-28Navy (270.2)PatA0-070%6.2
2-2Holy Cross (109.3)PatA0-036%-4.2
2-4Loyola MD (268.9)PatH0-087%13.3
2-7Colgate (220.9)PatA0-057%2.1
2-12Lehigh (240.5)PatA0-059%2.8
2-14Lafayette (122.1)PatH0-061%3.3
2-18Boston University (107.2)PatH0-059%2.7
2-21Army (133.1)PatA0-040%-3.0
2-25Navy (270.2)PatH0-087%13.4
2-28Bucknell (225.6)PatH0-079%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AmericanPat31.1726.4068.4263.5011.487.13
Loyola MDPat0.004.3650.0032.790.00-1.50
ColgatePat0.004.3425.0039.12-0.00-0.94
BucknellPat0.004.3320.0036.13-0.00-1.20
LehighPat0.004.330.0034.15-0.00-1.37
NavyPat0.004.3020.0033.90-0.00-1.39
Holy CrossPat0.004.30100.0064.980.001.29
ArmyPat0.004.27100.0067.810.001.52
Boston UniversityPat0.004.2733.3361.54-0.000.99
LafayettePat0.004.2775.0065.600.001.33
ColumbiaIvy0.002.0166.6765.480.000.62
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.8433.3341.01-0.00-0.33
St. Francis PANEC10.001.8450.0046.110.00-0.14
BrownIvy0.001.8220.0037.43-0.00-0.46
Stony BrookAE0.001.7933.3365.11-0.000.54
Louisiana TechCUSA13.501.7575.0071.076.750.74
La SalleA100.001.75100.0053.850.000.13
Morehead St.OVC12.251.7325.0055.60-6.130.19
IllinoisB100.001.73100.0065.120.000.52
PresbyterianBSth12.001.720.0023.57-12.00-0.91
TempleAmer11.001.7233.3351.35-3.670.05
HamptonMEAC0.001.6920.0045.02-0.00-0.17
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3233.3330.55-0.00-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.000.320.0029.07-0.00-0.13
PennIvy0.000.290.0024.67-0.00-0.15
AlbanyAE0.000.2633.3364.13-0.000.07
HarvardIvy0.000.2450.0067.730.000.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.240.0055.84-0.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.2333.3337.47-0.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.230.0045.75-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.2375.0065.950.000.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.2125.0040.14-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2150.0038.810.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.210.0042.28-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.2150.0054.140.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.200.0041.46-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.20100.0073.380.000.09
YaleIvy0.000.1875.0069.180.000.07
NJITind0.000.1820.0027.91-0.00-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1825.0042.83-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.170.0038.08-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1566.6756.820.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1566.6766.090.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.150.0031.34-0.00-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.1560.0041.560.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1533.3347.25-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.670.1416.6730.01-1.11-0.06
CincinnatiAmer2.670.14100.0058.762.670.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1450.0037.880.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0034.81-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.1275.0040.470.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0031.43-0.00-0.04
DukeACC2.500.12100.0085.502.500.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.120.0028.50-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.120.0033.80-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0075.310.000.06
VMISC0.000.1233.3337.04-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.120.0017.71-0.00-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0071.170.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.1275.0056.870.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1275.0072.970.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1140.0033.57-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1133.3360.10-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0027.43-0.00-0.05
MichiganB100.000.11100.0070.020.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1175.0073.300.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1180.0059.570.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.11100.0073.810.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0087.980.000.07
HofstraCAA0.000.0975.0066.800.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0020.52-0.00-0.05
KansasB120.000.0966.6758.820.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0033.26-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0072.950.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0960.0045.520.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0041.460.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0059.320.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0980.0043.930.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0875.0070.270.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0833.3344.26-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0833.3342.50-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0055.640.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.840.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.09-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0020.27-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3350.07-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.48-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0032.210.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.710.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.280.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.540.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0640.0028.54-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.420.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.62-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0054.620.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0047.380.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0666.6735.400.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.990.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0059.940.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.25-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0033.20-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0026.64-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0065.370.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.52-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.05-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.980.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC2.250.0675.0051.181.130.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0024.54-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.460.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0061.930.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.420.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.810.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0675.0062.270.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0054.250.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.270.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.050.0031.81-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0069.360.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6751.260.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0550.0035.290.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0575.0058.430.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.05100.0047.530.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0059.10-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.12-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0076.960.000.02
TexasB120.000.03100.0079.170.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0026.270.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0037.06-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0056.780.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0350.0068.360.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.63-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.66-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0043.380.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0029.78-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0036.18-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.70-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.960.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0025.79-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0039.88-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6738.720.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.97-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.72-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
SouthernSWAC1.000.030.0039.51-1.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0066.640.000.01