live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:231.0
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:219
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19231.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rhode Island (119.0)A10A65-42L0%0.0
11-17Hampton (155.0)MEACH48-61L0%0.0
11-21St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA68-48L0%0.0
11-25VCU (37.0)A10A72-44L0%0.0
11-28New Hampshire (177.0)AEA50-68W100%0.0
12-1Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA81-56L0%0.0
12-4Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA56-60W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (185.0)NECA55-48L0%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (59.0)AEH68-86L0%0.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH64-79L0%0.0
12-22LSU (94.0)SECA79-51L0%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (255.0)PatA75-67L0%0.0
1-3Colgate (241.0)PatH37-56L0%0.0
1-6Bucknell (183.0)PatA72-54L0%0.0
1-9Lehigh (168.0)PatH50-65L0%0.0
1-13Boston University (196.0)PatH50-61L0%0.0
1-17Army (214.0)PatA65-45L0%0.0
1-20Lafayette (329.0)PatA73-81W100%0.0
1-27Navy (216.0)PatA58-63W100%0.0
1-30Colgate (241.0)PatA49-54W100%0.0
2-1Holy Cross (248.0)PatH58-45W100%0.0
2-3Bucknell (183.0)PatH69-55W100%0.0
2-6Lehigh (168.0)PatA72-49L0%0.0
2-10Boston University (196.0)PatA71-51L0%0.0
2-13Army (214.0)PatH59-65L0%0.0
2-17Lafayette (329.0)PatH60-59W100%0.0
2-21Holy Cross (248.0)PatA70-71W100%0.0
2-24Navy (216.0)PatH72-65W100%0.0
2-27Loyola MD (255.0)PatH67-66W100%0.0
3-3Boston University (196.0)PatA64-69W100%0.0
3-6Lehigh (168.0)PatA78-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AmericanPat26.4926.4942.9542.95-3.73-3.73
LehighPat5.915.9146.4346.43-0.42-0.42
Boston UniversityPat5.765.7653.5753.570.410.41
Holy CrossPat4.474.4745.1645.16-0.43-0.43
NavyPat4.314.3160.0060.000.860.86
ArmyPat4.284.2855.1755.170.440.44
Loyola MDPat4.274.2728.5728.57-1.83-1.83
ColgatePat4.254.2540.7440.74-0.79-0.79
BucknellPat4.244.2455.5655.560.470.47
LafayettePat4.224.2221.4321.43-2.41-2.41
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.911.9140.6240.62-0.36-0.36
New HampshireAE1.851.8560.7160.710.400.40
St. Francis PANEC1.821.8239.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Stony BrookAE1.801.8079.3179.311.061.06
WagnerNEC1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
Rhode IslandA101.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
HamptonMEAC1.641.6465.5265.520.510.51
VCUA101.641.6469.7069.700.650.65
LSUSEC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
BinghamtonAE0.380.3826.6726.67-0.18-0.18
UMBCAE0.350.3521.8821.88-0.19-0.19
Robert MorrisNEC0.340.3431.2531.25-0.13-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.340.3454.8454.840.030.03
AlbanyAE0.320.3274.1974.190.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.240.2423.3323.33-0.13-0.13
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
MaineAE0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.200.2043.7543.75-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
NJITASun0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.190.1928.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
George WashingtonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
VermontAE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.11-0.11
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
FordhamA100.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
La SalleA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
CornellIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
PennIvy0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
BrownIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01