Drake

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	133.0
Current RPI:	133
Expected SOS:	110
Current SOS:	110
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	162
Expected OOC SOS:	201

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	133.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Iowa St. (33.0)	B12	H	74-65	W	100%
11-18	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	N	63-59	L	0%
11-19	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	N	62-66	W	100%
11-21	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	N	52-60	L	0%
11-26	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	73-49	W	100%
11-30	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	A	108-64	L	0%
12-3	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	H	62-60	W	100%
12-8	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	66-53	W	100%
12-17	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	82-68	L	0%
12-21	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	87-64	W	100%
12-28	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	79-64	W	100%
12-31	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	72-61	L	0%
1-3	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	76-59	L	0%
1-7	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	H	68-83	L	0%
1-10	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	82-74	W	100%
1-13	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	60-69	W	100%
1-15	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	H	77-60	W	100%
1-18	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	A	68-75	W	100%
1-22	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	A	66-52	L	0%
1-25	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	H	69-77	L	0%
1-28	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	H	93-86	W	100%
2-1	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	61-54	L	0%
2-4	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	39-57	L	0%
2-8	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	64-53	L	0%
2-12	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	78-54	W	100%
2-15	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	A	55-62	W	100%
2-18	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	A	71-55	L	0%
2-22	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	H	78-63	W	100%
2-25	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	81-58	L	0%
3-1	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	N	65-49	W	100%
3-2	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	N	68-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Drake	MVC	26.47	26.47	50.39	50.39	0.21	0.21
Creighton	MVC	5.85	5.85	83.33	83.33	3.90	3.90
Bradley	MVC	5.71	5.71	24.14	24.14	-2.96	-2.96
Illinois St.	MVC	4.33	4.33	61.29	61.29	0.98	0.98
Indiana St.	MVC	4.28	4.28	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Evansville	MVC	4.27	4.27	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Wichita St.	MVC	4.25	4.25	86.21	86.21	3.08	3.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.25	4.25	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Missouri St.	MVC	4.20	4.20	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.20	4.20	28.57	28.57	-1.80	-1.80
Iowa	B10	1.82	1.82	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Air Force	MWC	1.69	1.69	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Iowa St.	B12	1.69	1.69	70.97	70.97	0.71	0.71
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.64	1.64	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.64	1.64	20.00	20.00	-0.98	-0.98
Virginia	ACC	1.64	1.64	70.00	70.00	0.66	0.66
Winthrop	BSth	1.64	1.64	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.64	1.64	24.00	24.00	-0.85	-0.85
Mississippi	SEC	1.61	1.61	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Chicago St.	GWC	0.28	0.28	10.71	10.71	-0.22	-0.22
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.25	81.25	81.25	0.15	0.15
Texas Christian	MWC	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	77.42	77.42	0.12	0.12
Fresno St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.20	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.18	0.18	13.79	13.79	-0.13	-0.13
Campbell	BSth	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Hawaii	WAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.10	0.10	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01