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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:218.6
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:97
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:257



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-961.00.01%
19-1076.00.03%
18-1176.20.06%
17-1295.80.30%
16-13108.90.96%
15-14128.92.24%
14-15148.85.12%
13-16169.18.47%
12-17188.813.17%
11-18209.116.33%
10-19227.717.92%
9-20245.715.31%
8-21263.210.42%
7-22278.46.14%
6-23292.92.61%
5-24304.20.71%
4-25315.70.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (166.4)ACCN74-77W100%0.0
11-18Colorado (94.8)P12N81-86L0%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (324.5)WACH0-094%18.6
11-29Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumA0-043%-2.2
12-2Wyoming (121.3)MWCA0-022%-9.3
12-6South Dakota (127.7)SumA0-021%-9.7
12-9Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumH0-062%3.8
12-11Minnesota (39.3)B10A0-04%-20.6
12-16Iowa (98.1)B10N0-015%-12.2
12-19South Dakota St. (116.5)SumA0-022%-9.3
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACH0-090%15.2
12-28Bradley (169.6)MVCH0-051%0.2
12-31Southern Illinois (102.2)MVCA0-021%-9.5
1-3Illinois St. (95.4)MVCH0-037%-4.0
1-6Indiana St. (175.2)MVCA0-032%-5.7
1-10Valparaiso (84.9)MVCA0-018%-11.0
1-13Evansville (147.7)MVCH0-048%-0.6
1-16Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCA0-013%-13.6
1-20Missouri St. (94.9)MVCH0-033%-5.3
1-24Loyola Chicago (111.1)MVCH0-040%-3.1
1-27Evansville (147.7)MVCA0-029%-6.6
1-30Southern Illinois (102.2)MVCH0-038%-3.5
2-3Bradley (169.6)MVCA0-032%-5.8
2-7Loyola Chicago (111.1)MVCA0-022%-9.1
2-10Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCH0-026%-7.6
2-14Indiana St. (175.2)MVCH0-051%0.3
2-18Missouri St. (94.9)MVCA0-017%-11.3
2-21Illinois St. (95.4)MVCA0-020%-9.9
2-24Valparaiso (84.9)MVCH0-034%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC31.2526.5050.0035.580.00-7.64
BradleyMVC0.004.4675.0048.020.00-0.18
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4666.6762.330.001.10
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4566.6761.790.001.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.43100.0058.480.000.75
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.43100.0056.420.000.57
ValparaisoMVC0.004.43100.0058.700.000.77
EvansvilleMVC0.004.43100.0051.160.000.10
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4333.3350.520.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4233.3342.630.00-0.65
Nebraska OmahaSum0.003.580.0034.850.00-1.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.002.0366.6760.820.000.44
South DakotaSum0.001.9266.6767.190.000.66
Chicago St.WAC0.001.880.007.730.00-1.59
IowaB100.001.84100.0057.310.000.27
ColoradoP1225.001.79100.0051.1725.000.04
MinnesotaB100.001.78100.0070.900.000.75
WyomingMWC0.001.76100.0056.600.000.23
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.720.0029.480.00-0.71
Wake ForestACC25.001.7233.3336.25-8.33-0.47
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.3833.3353.520.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.350.0023.260.00-0.18
DenverSum3.120.320.0038.10-3.12-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.000.2666.6756.330.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.26100.0038.710.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.2150.0050.570.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.190.0026.150.00-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.000.18100.0066.490.000.06
NevadaMWC0.000.18100.0078.910.000.10
IndianaB100.000.1833.3341.220.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.180.0036.490.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1875.0055.040.000.02
PurdueB100.000.18100.0085.360.000.12
MississippiSEC0.000.16100.0053.790.000.01
DukeACC0.000.15100.0083.580.000.10
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1566.6742.170.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.150.0021.010.00-0.09
Georgia SouthernSB3.120.15100.0064.473.120.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0066.990.000.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1533.3329.980.00-0.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1350.0038.730.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0049.250.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.130.0045.040.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.12100.0044.740.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3345.540.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1233.3342.010.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1250.0060.060.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.1233.3350.350.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1266.6748.280.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0048.410.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1250.0062.630.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0050.190.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.120.0041.210.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0066.530.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0066.010.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.1233.3347.970.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1250.0050.360.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.10100.0064.720.000.03
KansasB120.000.10100.0082.910.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0078.160.000.05
XavierBE0.000.10100.0078.990.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1075.0072.950.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0966.6748.040.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0048.070.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.150.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky3.120.0933.3338.88-1.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0975.0058.930.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0064.910.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0044.630.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0044.500.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0059.240.000.02
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0037.120.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.07100.0076.260.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.07100.0071.560.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
LibertyBSth3.120.0633.3360.63-1.040.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0633.3335.310.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3334.680.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC6.250.0625.0032.49-3.12-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.060.0042.340.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
UtahP120.000.06100.0067.160.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0666.6774.120.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0074.500.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.03
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0050.870.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02