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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:137
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (160.0)ACCN74-77W100%0.0
11-18Colorado (82.0)P12N81-86L0%0.0
11-19Drexel (242.0)CAAN90-88W100%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (335.0)WACH79-67W100%0.0
11-29Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumA75-73L0%0.0
12-2Wyoming (98.0)MWCA96-89L0%0.0
12-6South Dakota (91.0)SumA93-65L0%0.0
12-9Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumH93-74W100%0.0
12-11Minnesota (171.0)B10A68-67L0%0.0
12-16Iowa (157.0)B10N90-64L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (37.0)SumA87-74L0%0.0
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH81-57W100%0.0
12-28Bradley (105.0)MVCH66-64W100%0.0
12-31Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCA67-70W100%0.0
1-3Illinois St. (85.0)MVCH87-62W100%0.0
1-6Indiana St. (184.0)MVCA72-75W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (188.0)MVCA77-60L0%0.0
1-13Evansville (151.0)MVCH81-65W100%0.0
1-16Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCA68-54L0%0.0
1-20Missouri St. (136.0)MVCH61-58W100%0.0
1-24Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH57-80L0%0.0
1-27Evansville (151.0)MVCA77-73L0%0.0
1-30Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCH67-78L0%0.0
2-3Bradley (105.0)MVCA68-78W100%0.0
2-7Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCA72-57L0%0.0
2-10Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCH71-64W100%0.0
2-14Indiana St. (184.0)MVCH90-76W100%0.0
2-18Missouri St. (136.0)MVCA63-67W100%0.0
2-21Illinois St. (85.0)MVCA89-81L0%0.0
2-24Valparaiso (188.0)MVCH64-69L0%0.0
3-2Bradley (105.0)MVCN61-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4326.4349.6249.62-0.20-0.20
BradleyMVC5.755.7562.0762.071.391.39
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.294.2983.3383.332.862.86
Illinois St.MVC4.274.2753.3353.330.280.28
Missouri St.MVC4.244.2456.6756.670.570.57
Northern IowaMVC4.244.2446.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Southern IllinoisMVC4.214.2160.0060.000.840.84
EvansvilleMVC4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoMVC4.164.1639.2939.29-0.89-0.89
Indiana St.MVC4.154.1540.7440.74-0.77-0.77
Nebraska OmahaSum3.363.3622.2222.22-1.87-1.87
South Dakota St.Sum1.931.9379.3179.311.131.13
South DakotaSum1.861.8672.4172.410.830.83
Chicago St.WAC1.771.773.453.45-1.64-1.64
IowaB101.741.7440.6240.62-0.33-0.33
ColoradoP121.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
MinnesotaB101.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
WyomingMWC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
DrexelCAA1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
Wake ForestACC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.3541.3841.38-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.300.3046.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.290.2928.5728.57-0.13-0.13
Western IllinoisSum0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
IndianaB100.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
NevadaMWC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
LouisvilleACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.100.1082.7682.760.070.07
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
KansasB120.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
TCUB120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
SyracuseACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00