live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:159.7
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:168
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1067.00.04%
19-1180.30.46%
18-1295.62.55%
17-13113.98.44%
16-14134.517.50%
15-15155.125.80%
14-16174.725.08%
13-17192.714.12%
12-18209.75.14%
11-19224.00.86%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (129.1)ACCN74-77W100%0.0
11-18Colorado (85.4)P12N81-86L0%0.0
11-19Drexel (271.3)CAAN90-88W100%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (335.8)WACH79-67W100%0.0
11-29Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumA75-73L0%0.0
12-2Wyoming (101.5)MWCA96-89L0%0.0
12-6South Dakota (99.2)SumA93-65L0%0.0
12-9Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumH93-74W100%0.0
12-11Minnesota (98.6)B10A68-67L0%0.0
12-16Iowa (157.0)B10N90-64L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (65.7)SumA87-74L0%0.0
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACH81-57W100%0.0
12-28Bradley (123.9)MVCH66-64W100%0.0
12-31Southern Illinois (139.1)MVCA67-70W100%0.0
1-3Illinois St. (120.8)MVCH87-62W100%0.0
1-6Indiana St. (140.9)MVCA72-75W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (136.7)MVCA77-60L0%0.0
1-13Evansville (160.1)MVCH81-65W100%0.0
1-16Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCA68-54L0%0.0
1-20Missouri St. (58.3)MVCH61-58W100%0.0
1-24Loyola Chicago (65.3)MVCH0-039%-3.2
1-27Evansville (160.1)MVCA0-038%-3.3
1-30Southern Illinois (139.1)MVCH0-053%1.0
2-3Bradley (123.9)MVCA0-032%-5.3
2-7Loyola Chicago (65.3)MVCA0-019%-9.6
2-10Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCH0-040%-2.9
2-14Indiana St. (140.9)MVCH0-051%0.2
2-18Missouri St. (58.3)MVCA0-017%-10.6
2-21Illinois St. (120.8)MVCA0-033%-4.8
2-24Valparaiso (136.7)MVCH0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4326.4359.2150.494.870.26
Missouri St.MVC2.984.2873.6870.351.411.74
BradleyMVC2.974.2868.4259.561.090.82
Northern IowaMVC2.894.2743.7550.38-0.360.03
Southern IllinoisMVC2.844.2555.5652.180.320.19
EvansvilleMVC2.894.2555.5648.580.32-0.12
Illinois St.MVC2.904.2550.0046.800.00-0.27
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.474.2577.7871.700.261.84
ValparaisoMVC2.904.2547.0649.58-0.17-0.04
Indiana St.MVC2.904.2547.0647.75-0.17-0.19
Nebraska OmahaSum5.143.4622.2226.33-2.85-1.64
South Dakota St.Sum2.881.9970.5971.931.190.87
South DakotaSum2.631.8572.2271.301.170.79
Chicago St.WAC2.701.810.003.23-2.70-1.69
IowaB102.691.8145.0042.17-0.27-0.28
ColoradoP122.631.7257.8952.130.420.07
MinnesotaB102.501.7261.9056.230.600.21
WyomingMWC2.571.7058.8255.340.450.18
DrexelCAA2.501.6731.5832.06-0.92-0.60
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.501.6716.6721.67-1.67-0.94
Wake ForestACC2.501.6747.0642.57-0.15-0.25
North Dakota St.Sum0.260.3544.4450.31-0.030.00
Oral RobertsSum0.380.3230.0032.53-0.15-0.11
DenverSum0.390.3033.3336.47-0.13-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.190.2452.6351.700.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.260.2442.8635.25-0.04-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.320.2045.0048.56-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.1821.0524.71-0.08-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.140.1778.9576.970.080.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1722.2227.33-0.07-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1742.1143.50-0.03-0.02
NevadaMWC0.200.1785.7182.070.140.11
IndianaB100.190.1757.8950.680.030.00
NorthwesternB100.190.1755.0050.370.020.00
PurdueB100.250.1790.4888.380.200.13
DukeACC0.200.1489.4785.190.160.10
MississippiSEC0.200.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.1438.8943.43-0.06-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.190.1477.7869.360.110.06
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1411.7612.81-0.10-0.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.1436.8432.79-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1445.0041.34-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1466.6765.360.060.04
Montana St.BSky0.250.1250.0047.670.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1227.7831.12-0.08-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.140.1261.1158.750.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1258.8249.760.03-0.00
Iowa St.B120.200.1261.1147.260.04-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.130.1237.5031.76-0.03-0.04
ElonCAA0.130.1252.6351.090.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1268.4257.770.050.02
WashingtonP120.190.1270.0061.440.080.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1268.4270.810.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.1142.1145.97-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.1144.4444.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.1143.7554.09-0.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.1127.7832.66-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.130.1155.0053.290.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1166.6763.420.020.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1170.5975.930.050.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1155.5656.710.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.140.1145.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.1168.4269.240.020.04
DelawareCAA0.130.1147.3743.04-0.01-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1158.8262.830.020.03
KansasB120.190.0984.2179.740.130.05
TCUB120.190.0973.6865.590.090.03
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0978.9576.760.080.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.0957.8953.190.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.0980.0075.050.090.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0973.6865.280.030.03
XavierBE0.140.0985.7180.080.100.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.0958.8257.140.030.01
UCLAP120.130.0965.0062.040.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0918.7536.760.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0961.1151.900.030.00
DuquesneA100.130.0870.0058.100.050.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.0820.0041.76-0.08-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.190.0868.4257.780.070.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.0831.5830.00-0.07-0.03
MarylandB100.180.0870.0065.320.070.03
WisconsinB100.060.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.0837.5037.68-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.120.0827.7840.97-0.05-0.01
IllinoisB100.190.0847.3744.27-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0875.0070.270.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0866.6759.780.020.02
Ohio St.B100.120.0880.9576.520.070.04
Penn St.B100.120.0861.9055.770.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.47-0.06-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0689.4777.030.050.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.94-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.44-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.130.0677.7867.900.070.02
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.630.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0670.5969.610.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.030.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.070.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.0638.8946.03-0.03-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0616.6724.29-0.09-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.0636.8444.12-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0644.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.440.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0644.4442.74-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.230.040.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0660.0060.340.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0620.0028.72-0.04-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.550.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0670.0071.230.030.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0610.5327.310.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0645.0047.050.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0010.650.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3384.230.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.96-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0657.8954.500.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0652.9455.040.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0617.6523.89-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.020.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0666.6766.010.020.02
LibertyBSth0.140.0652.9457.320.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0663.1661.050.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0641.1839.13-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0680.0078.980.040.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0678.9576.130.040.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0666.6765.620.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0657.8959.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.130.0678.9572.990.080.03
IUPUIHorz0.060.0627.7829.84-0.03-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0625.0028.25-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.850.000.01
Little RockSB0.060.0622.2225.26-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0647.3748.17-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.130.0644.4454.89-0.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.180.000.01
Oregon St.P120.130.0657.8950.810.020.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.91-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.270.030.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0663.1666.000.020.02
USCP120.060.0671.4368.300.030.02
UtahP120.000.0661.1158.950.000.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0673.6877.120.030.03
Washington St.P120.060.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.2557.400.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0664.7159.980.020.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0646.6758.78-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.0583.3381.350.090.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0576.4769.020.030.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0585.0083.180.000.04
RutgersB100.120.0557.8947.140.02-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.360.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.020.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0368.4260.530.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.62-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0361.9065.160.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.700.020.01
UMBCAE0.060.0358.8258.360.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.230.000.00
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.530.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0368.4255.060.030.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.120.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.63-0.04-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.520.050.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.210.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.610.000.01
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.060.0322.2227.51-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0322.2228.67-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0338.8942.60-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.830.020.01
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.46-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.400.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0363.1657.540.020.00
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.730.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.920.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.640.030.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.4485.440.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.4258.990.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0310.5316.75-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.200.020.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.63-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0357.1453.220.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.460.020.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0337.5033.78-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.130.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0311.1117.96-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0338.8935.35-0.01-0.01