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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:306.7
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:98
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-6
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16217.10.12%
11-17233.30.72%
10-18250.12.17%
9-19269.35.38%
8-20284.511.04%
7-21297.817.45%
6-22309.120.93%
5-23318.720.17%
4-24326.413.37%
3-25332.16.47%
2-26337.21.78%
1-27340.70.35%
0-28344.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota (218.7)SumH74-79L0%0.0
11-15UMKC (146.9)WACA68-62L0%0.0
11-24Iona (82.5)MAACN64-53L0%0.0
11-25UC Davis (236.9)BWN64-58L0%0.0
11-30DePaul (206.1)BEA77-75L0%0.0
12-3Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-041%-2.8
12-10Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-069%6.0
12-17Iowa St. (31.7)B12N0-02%-25.8
12-19South Dakota St. (254.3)SumH0-048%-0.6
12-22Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH0-084%11.9
12-29Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-028%-7.2
1-1Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-017%-11.5
1-4Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-01%-30.4
1-8Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-038%-3.6
1-11Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-026%-7.6
1-15Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-07%-17.6
1-18Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-033%-5.3
1-21Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-05%-19.3
1-24Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-08%-16.8
1-28Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-017%-11.4
2-1Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-02%-24.2
2-4Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-036%-4.4
2-7Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-014%-13.2
2-11Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-013%-13.8
2-14Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-021%-9.7
2-18Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-019%-10.6
2-22Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-013%-13.3
2-25Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC29.1426.410.0017.25-29.14-17.30
Wichita St.MVC0.004.5971.4385.130.003.23
Indiana St.MVC0.004.5933.3344.31-0.00-0.52
Missouri St.MVC1.004.5975.0063.360.501.23
Northern IowaMVC0.004.5840.0055.15-0.000.47
BradleyMVC0.004.5650.0027.500.00-2.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.5650.0044.640.00-0.49
EvansvilleMVC0.004.5633.3338.16-0.00-1.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.5666.6752.560.000.23
Illinois St.MVC0.004.5550.0064.220.001.29
South Dakota St.Sum0.002.0014.2937.00-0.00-0.52
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.880.0025.06-0.00-0.94
South DakotaSum10.711.8850.0045.340.00-0.18
Iowa St.B120.001.8871.4367.950.000.67
DePaulBE10.001.8575.0033.755.00-0.60
UMKCWAC10.711.8566.6754.423.570.16
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.840.0042.97-0.00-0.26
Fresno St.MWC0.001.7960.0038.890.00-0.40
IonaMAAC10.001.7950.0069.150.000.68
UC DavisBW10.001.7950.0046.560.00-0.12
Murray St.OVC0.710.2542.8661.90-0.100.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.250.0019.30-0.00-0.15
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.240.0032.39-0.00-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.710.2450.0038.430.00-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.000.2266.6770.930.000.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2250.0061.810.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.0017.30-0.00-0.14
IUPUISum0.000.1928.5747.72-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1960.0048.590.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.19100.0074.800.000.09
TCUB120.000.19100.0059.480.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1833.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0013.30-0.00-0.13
OklahomaB120.000.1883.3351.920.000.01
NevadaMWC2.000.1875.0070.471.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1857.1467.020.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.1885.7175.950.000.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1675.0054.320.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0042.710.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1516.6732.62-0.00-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1350.0050.940.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1350.0046.780.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0039.200.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0058.980.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1375.0074.990.000.06
Bowling GreenMAC1.430.1233.3343.64-0.48-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1283.3361.490.000.03
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1233.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0054.690.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.430.000.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0022.69-0.00-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz1.000.1233.3333.15-0.33-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1214.2934.56-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0024.25-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.1225.0056.92-0.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0052.330.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0039.35-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1271.4355.750.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1283.3380.550.000.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1216.6734.31-0.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1233.3326.75-0.00-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1283.3356.560.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1050.0059.670.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0960.0058.950.000.02
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0053.560.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.09100.0074.460.000.04
CreightonBE0.710.09100.0076.650.710.05
KansasB120.000.0985.7176.170.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0971.4349.590.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0050.290.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.44-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.710.0957.1440.550.10-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0912.5048.98-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0940.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.710.060.0021.30-0.71-0.04
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.710.0650.0051.820.000.00
Weber St.BSky1.710.0620.0054.94-1.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.710.0333.3348.71-0.24-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
HoustonAmer0.710.0383.3376.370.480.02
MontanaBSky0.710.0314.2947.44-0.51-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.710.0314.2928.15-0.51-0.01
OaklandHorz0.710.0383.3378.430.480.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.710.0337.5036.24-0.18-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.710.0383.3370.360.480.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC1.000.0325.0039.28-0.50-0.01
RutgersB101.000.0383.3344.770.67-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC1.000.0385.7162.410.710.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01