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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:302.9
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:173
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:1-12
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19256.90.30%
9-20272.53.70%
8-21287.517.61%
7-22300.136.71%
6-23312.231.86%
5-24323.89.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Tulane (232.1)AmerA79-74L0%0.0
11-21UMKC (273.6)WACH73-79L0%0.0
11-23Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAN81-79W100%0.0
11-24Weber St. (139.2)BSkyN74-58L0%0.0
11-25Pepperdine (109.4)WCCN69-53W100%0.0
11-28Illinois Chicago (345.4)HorzH83-62W100%0.0
12-5Bowling Green (202.1)MACA75-63L0%0.0
12-9DePaul (168.3)BEH71-74L0%0.0
12-12Nevada (130.7)MWCA79-71L0%0.0
12-19Iowa (8.5)B10N70-64L0%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (317.9)SlndH87-70W100%0.0
12-31Wichita St. (35.2)MVCA67-47L0%0.0
1-3Illinois St. (111.2)MVCH62-67L0%0.0
1-6Indiana St. (159.2)MVCH69-79L0%0.0
1-9Northern Iowa (113.1)MVCA77-44L0%0.0
1-12Evansville (89.7)MVCA84-65L0%0.0
1-17Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCH76-81L0%0.0
1-20Missouri St. (235.3)MVCH70-79L0%0.0
1-23Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCA68-63L0%0.0
1-26Illinois St. (111.2)MVCA76-64L0%0.0
1-30Bradley (307.7)MVCH80-70W100%0.0
2-2Indiana St. (159.2)MVCA63-56L0%0.0
2-6Northern Iowa (113.1)MVCH66-82L0%0.0
2-9Wichita St. (35.2)MVCH48-74L0%0.0
2-13Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCA0-014%-11.7
2-17Evansville (89.7)MVCH0-018%-9.9
2-20Bradley (307.7)MVCA0-063%3.5
2-24Missouri St. (235.3)MVCA0-032%-5.1
2-27Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCH0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4226.3816.9620.92-17.45-15.34
Wichita St.MVC4.854.4471.4374.902.082.21
Illinois St.MVC4.824.4252.1750.800.210.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.904.4143.4841.42-0.38-0.76
Indiana St.MVC4.814.4145.4545.74-0.44-0.38
Southern IllinoisMVC2.904.3972.0071.211.281.86
BradleyMVC2.864.3812.5011.47-2.14-3.38
EvansvilleMVC2.904.3870.8371.801.211.91
Northern IowaMVC4.764.3852.1752.270.210.20
Missouri St.MVC2.844.3834.7833.95-0.87-1.41
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.251.8710.0011.08-1.80-1.46
IowaB102.221.8278.2678.151.261.02
NevadaMWC2.171.7955.0053.700.220.13
Western KentuckyCUSA2.171.7847.6247.73-0.10-0.08
DePaulBE2.131.7630.4331.75-0.83-0.64
UMKCWAC2.131.7525.0030.06-1.06-0.70
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.081.7236.8436.17-0.55-0.48
Bowling GreenMAC2.081.7247.6243.83-0.10-0.21
PepperdineWCC2.081.7260.8763.160.450.45
TulaneAmer2.081.7233.3332.67-0.69-0.60
Weber St.BSky2.081.7265.0068.630.620.64
TulsaAmer0.300.2466.6764.700.100.07
Murray St.OVC0.260.2347.8350.89-0.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.270.2145.0048.13-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.2013.0415.26-0.13-0.14
North TexasCUSA0.210.2031.8232.46-0.08-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.230.1882.6183.030.150.12
PortlandWCC0.230.1838.4638.04-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.180.1858.3360.710.030.04
Ball St.MAC0.220.1860.8757.130.050.03
Saint LouisA100.220.1834.7832.39-0.07-0.06
Seton HallBE0.180.1870.8368.080.070.06
ButlerBE0.220.1870.8369.000.090.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1521.7422.75-0.11-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1573.9174.640.110.08
Utah St.MWC0.140.1547.6249.28-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.140.1565.3865.510.040.05
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1554.5552.530.020.01
BYUWCC0.220.1568.0070.260.080.06
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1563.6461.550.040.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1533.3332.04-0.04-0.05
ToledoMAC0.130.1560.8762.080.030.04
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1526.3232.40-0.06-0.05
TCUB120.180.1545.8339.36-0.01-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1543.4850.64-0.020.00
DetroitHorz0.140.1245.4543.87-0.01-0.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1252.1755.070.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.1225.0027.26-0.05-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1250.0049.760.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.130.1230.4328.20-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.190.1243.4842.54-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1243.4843.77-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1231.5832.04-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1247.6249.39-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.1245.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.1260.8760.440.020.02
IUPUISum0.130.1238.4638.50-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.090.1241.6742.39-0.01-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1272.2275.600.080.06
Air ForceMWC0.140.1243.4837.80-0.02-0.03
CreightonBE0.130.1264.0062.070.040.03
UABCUSA0.130.1283.3379.820.090.07
Kent St.MAC0.090.1265.2260.600.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1236.8442.88-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.1172.0069.130.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1033.3334.95-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.104.357.72-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.150.0954.1753.810.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0930.4332.26-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0952.1749.150.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0945.8342.30-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.090.0923.8125.99-0.05-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.100.0930.0035.92-0.04-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.0412.96-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.130.0985.0083.440.090.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0969.5770.090.050.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0970.8367.930.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0931.8232.68-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.0025.08-0.05-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0950.0044.650.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0968.0066.640.030.03
XavierBE0.130.0987.5081.850.100.06
Iowa St.B120.130.0970.8367.970.050.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0964.0057.890.020.01
MarylandB100.130.0987.5083.660.100.06
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0046.770.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0954.1754.200.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.0983.3378.380.080.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0766.6767.670.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0782.6181.130.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0765.2268.600.020.02
SeattleWAC0.100.0747.6245.02-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0714.2915.44-0.04-0.05
Green BayHorz0.050.0656.5257.700.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0652.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.13-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0660.8762.470.010.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0631.8235.12-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0614.2924.90-0.04-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0676.1972.370.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.0679.1775.990.060.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.650.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0660.8755.980.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0627.2727.80-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0679.1777.510.050.03
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0647.6248.04-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0641.6741.18-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0660.0062.710.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0643.4844.83-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.069.5212.09-0.04-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0627.2726.45-0.05-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0640.0045.20-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0681.8281.780.060.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0614.2914.91-0.04-0.04
USCP120.090.0678.2673.130.050.03
UtahP120.090.0670.8368.520.040.02
IllinoisB100.090.0645.8344.07-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.0652.0050.760.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.270.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0682.6181.140.030.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0656.5257.060.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0637.5042.32-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0639.1341.05-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.770.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.110.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0634.7833.02-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0668.1867.730.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0663.6461.470.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0658.3363.180.010.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0662.5063.450.010.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0672.0071.570.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0630.0031.76-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0628.5733.30-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.040.0679.1778.290.020.03
ArkansasSEC0.040.0650.0052.940.000.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0666.6763.300.030.02
George MasonA100.080.0633.3333.63-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0656.0052.870.010.00
IndianaB100.040.0680.0075.690.030.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0675.0072.610.040.03
MichiganB100.040.0670.8366.750.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0680.0081.560.050.04
MississippiSEC0.040.0662.5058.940.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0620.0022.25-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0652.1753.440.000.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.090.020.01
PurdueB100.090.0680.0077.910.050.03
RichmondA100.080.0656.5255.820.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0683.3381.280.060.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0625.0023.45-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0668.1865.170.030.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.730.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0669.5770.020.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0668.1871.350.020.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0687.5086.850.030.04
VirginiaACC0.040.0683.3378.460.030.03
Washington St.P120.080.0634.7831.64-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0670.8370.130.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0641.6739.49-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0670.8367.980.020.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0658.3359.310.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0616.6719.49-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.040.0686.9682.920.030.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0620.0019.73-0.05-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0358.3358.580.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.03-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0359.0956.870.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
DenverSum0.050.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0354.5555.550.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0356.5255.340.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0360.0062.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.760.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0323.8122.86-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.400.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.870.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.520.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0382.6183.010.030.02
UMBCAE0.050.0323.0825.87-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.3684.220.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0386.9682.160.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.960.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.560.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.34-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0386.9680.420.030.02
StanfordP120.040.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0365.2264.340.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0362.5057.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0325.0028.15-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.53-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0366.6767.110.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.039.0917.14-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.040.0361.9065.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.000.0365.2262.370.000.01