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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:269.0
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:101
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22269.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Bowling Green (109.0)MACH58-77L0%0.0
11-18DePaul (197.0)BEA80-62L0%0.0
11-22Western Michigan (119.0)MACA91-75L0%0.0
11-25IUPUI (260.0)SumH73-60W100%0.0
11-28Valparaiso (50.0)HorzN66-46L0%0.0
11-29Portland (149.0)WCCN59-71L0%0.0
11-30Murray St. (63.0)OVCN59-68L0%0.0
12-6North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH62-63L0%0.0
12-13Green Bay (54.0)HorzA64-48L0%0.0
12-15Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH76-66W100%0.0
12-20Iowa St. (9.0)B12N83-54L0%0.0
12-31Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH58-66L0%0.0
1-3Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA62-37L0%0.0
1-7Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA81-45L0%0.0
1-10Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH40-64L0%0.0
1-14Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA50-47L0%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH84-78W100%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH56-64L0%0.0
1-25Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA74-40L0%0.0
1-28Bradley (288.0)MVCA57-69W100%0.0
1-31Evansville (118.0)MVCH70-65W100%0.0
2-4Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH63-61W100%0.0
2-7Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA69-53L0%0.0
2-11Bradley (288.0)MVCH60-54W100%0.0
2-14Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA75-54L0%0.0
2-17Evansville (118.0)MVCA61-52L0%0.0
2-22Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH78-43W100%0.0
2-25Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH75-80L0%0.0
2-28Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA63-57L0%0.0
3-5Bradley (288.0)MVCN50-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4026.4021.8821.88-14.85-14.85
BradleyMVC5.925.9224.1424.14-3.06-3.06
Northern IowaMVC4.474.4790.3290.323.603.60
Illinois St.MVC4.464.4660.0060.000.890.89
Southern IllinoisMVC4.394.3933.3333.33-1.46-1.46
EvansvilleMVC4.384.3860.7160.710.940.94
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.384.3853.5753.570.310.31
Wichita St.MVC4.354.3586.2186.213.153.15
Indiana St.MVC4.334.3346.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Missouri St.MVC4.294.2929.6329.63-1.75-1.75
Murray St.OVC1.881.8882.7682.761.231.23
Green BayHorz1.811.8172.4172.410.810.81
ValparaisoHorz1.811.8182.7682.761.181.18
IUPUISum1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Jackson St.SWAC1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
PortlandWCC1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
North DakotaBSky1.721.7218.5218.52-1.08-1.08
Western MichiganMAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Bowling GreenMAC1.691.6965.5265.520.530.53
Iowa St.B121.671.6775.0075.000.830.83
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.350.3525.0025.00-0.18-0.18
Ball St.MAC0.250.2520.6920.69-0.14-0.14
Saint LouisA100.240.2432.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
MemphisAmer0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
Seton HallBE0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1462.9662.960.040.04
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
IPFWSum0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
BelmontOVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00