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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:256.5
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:9
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1292.50.02%
16-13111.60.10%
15-14133.50.21%
14-15152.20.63%
13-16173.22.22%
12-17192.74.79%
11-18212.59.23%
10-19232.013.95%
9-20249.317.47%
8-21267.218.17%
7-22282.714.62%
6-23296.710.33%
5-24309.85.40%
4-25320.41.99%
3-26328.50.63%
2-27330.30.18%
1-28335.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Bowling Green (98.2)MACH58-77L0%0.0
11-18DePaul (175.7)BEA80-62L0%0.0
11-22Western Michigan (121.6)MACA0-019%-10.4
11-25IUPUI (280.1)SumH0-069%6.1
11-28Valparaiso (178.6)HorzN0-031%-5.9
11-29Portland (159.0)WCCN0-029%-6.8
11-30Murray St. (111.0)OVCN0-019%-10.5
12-6North Dakota (259.6)BSkyH0-065%4.5
12-13Green Bay (108.2)HorzA0-012%-14.4
12-15Jackson St. (315.8)SWACH0-078%9.4
12-20Iowa St. (53.2)B12N0-010%-15.6
12-31Wichita St. (15.8)MVCH0-09%-16.0
1-3Missouri St. (113.7)MVCA0-015%-12.2
1-7Illinois St. (136.9)MVCA0-017%-11.4
1-10Northern Iowa (66.2)MVCH0-024%-8.4
1-14Loyola Chicago (263.4)MVCA0-039%-3.4
1-17Indiana St. (156.4)MVCH0-040%-3.1
1-20Illinois St. (136.9)MVCH0-036%-4.2
1-25Wichita St. (15.8)MVCA0-03%-23.2
1-28Bradley (283.6)MVCA0-044%-1.9
1-31Evansville (103.5)MVCH0-031%-6.0
2-4Southern Illinois (125.2)MVCH0-034%-5.0
2-7Northern Iowa (66.2)MVCA0-010%-15.6
2-11Bradley (283.6)MVCH0-067%5.2
2-14Indiana St. (156.4)MVCA0-020%-10.3
2-17Evansville (103.5)MVCA0-014%-13.2
2-22Missouri St. (113.7)MVCH0-034%-5.0
2-25Loyola Chicago (263.4)MVCH0-062%3.8
2-28Southern Illinois (125.2)MVCA0-016%-12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC37.5026.460.0026.55-37.50-12.41
Illinois St.MVC0.004.500.0049.60-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.004.50100.0062.190.001.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4850.0059.260.000.83
Northern IowaMVC0.004.48100.0066.140.001.45
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4750.0050.780.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.470.0032.95-0.00-1.52
BradleyMVC0.004.440.0023.75-0.00-2.33
Missouri St.MVC0.004.44100.0054.850.000.43
Wichita St.MVC0.004.44100.0083.540.002.98
Murray St.OVC0.001.9750.0071.350.000.84
ValparaisoHorz0.001.8550.0051.410.000.05
IUPUISum0.001.8533.3328.75-0.00-0.79
Green BayHorz0.001.790.0065.52-0.000.56
PortlandWCC0.001.79100.0049.130.00-0.03
DePaulBE25.001.79100.0037.5825.00-0.44
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.7933.3335.80-0.00-0.51
North DakotaBSky0.001.780.0039.18-0.00-0.39
Bowling GreenMAC25.001.76100.0061.5025.000.40
Western MichiganMAC0.001.75100.0055.410.000.19
Iowa St.B120.001.72100.0060.260.000.35
Illinois ChicagoHorz6.250.3550.0040.830.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.250.0036.23-0.00-0.07
DetroitHorz0.000.230.0053.31-0.000.02
Wright St.Horz6.250.2350.0053.110.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.22100.0058.910.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.210.0041.47-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.200.0036.60-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.200.0034.44-0.00-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.190.0031.43-0.00-0.07
Texas TechB120.000.1950.0045.040.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.190.0034.11-0.00-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1950.0055.890.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.18100.0068.930.000.07
Austin PeayOVC0.000.180.0033.98-0.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1750.0051.650.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.16100.0050.480.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.16100.0040.980.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1650.0034.320.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1650.0055.290.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.16100.0046.120.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.15100.0063.800.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.150.0026.57-0.00-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.150.0062.68-0.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.150.0033.78-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.150.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0029.61-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.13100.0069.720.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6762.170.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1366.6757.250.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.130.0060.93-0.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1333.3328.73-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.130.0065.41-0.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0024.28-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1350.0035.660.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0055.750.000.01
VCUA100.000.12100.0076.230.000.06
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0057.160.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.12100.0060.010.000.02
TCUB120.000.12100.0054.380.000.01
XavierBE0.000.12100.0070.050.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0038.55-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1250.0062.850.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.100.0050.29-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1050.0063.260.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0030.220.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0966.6749.560.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0950.0071.660.000.04
UtahP120.000.0950.0063.450.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0059.82-0.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0056.850.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0062.600.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0023.81-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0051.640.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0950.0046.970.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.370.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.090.0041.28-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0950.0059.510.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.09100.0050.890.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0054.560.000.01
IowaB100.000.0966.6773.790.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0035.720.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.090.0058.38-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0950.0061.220.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0049.85-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0016.22-0.00-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.070.0058.61-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.05-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.270.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.01-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0066.390.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.98-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.640.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0060.930.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0650.0058.740.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.060.0049.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3351.93-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.69-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3337.88-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.430.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.360.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.19-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0064.340.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6755.190.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0044.490.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.330.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.970.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0633.3324.67-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.34-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0048.49-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0049.980.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.990.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0053.570.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0066.74-0.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.350.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0068.630.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0043.270.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.060.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.19-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.060.0054.91-0.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.58-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3334.62-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0021.31-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.38-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.86-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.86-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0046.51-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6753.710.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0039.66-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6761.240.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.03100.0072.390.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.210.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.60-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0062.330.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.06-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.940.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0057.080.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.610.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0071.490.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.91-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0039.97-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
StanfordP120.000.03100.0059.450.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.81-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0061.020.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0350.0061.290.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0058.87-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0067.190.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.410.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.330.000.00