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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:314.0
Current RPI:314
Expected SOS:146
Current SOS:146
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-7
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23314.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota (123.0)SumH74-79L0%0.0
11-15UMKC (184.0)WACA68-62L0%0.0
11-24Iona (89.0)MAACN64-53L0%0.0
11-25UC Davis (166.0)BWN64-58L0%0.0
11-30DePaul (239.0)BEA77-75L0%0.0
12-3Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH76-78L0%0.0
12-10Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH63-68L0%0.0
12-17Iowa St. (21.0)B12N97-80L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH75-83L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH101-69W100%0.0
12-29Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH102-98W100%0.0
1-1Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA83-69L0%0.0
1-4Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA90-65L0%0.0
1-8Evansville (188.0)MVCH88-76W100%0.0
1-11Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH87-70W100%0.0
1-15Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA79-60L0%0.0
1-18Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH88-84W100%0.0
1-21Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA72-58L0%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA71-72W100%0.0
1-28Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH63-71L0%0.0
2-1Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH69-77L0%0.0
2-4Bradley (220.0)MVCA79-72L0%0.0
2-7Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH53-82L0%0.0
2-11Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA84-60L0%0.0
2-14Evansville (188.0)MVCA87-70L0%0.0
2-18Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH73-76L0%0.0
2-22Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA80-65L0%0.0
2-25Bradley (220.0)MVCH74-82L0%0.0
3-2Bradley (220.0)MVCN67-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4026.4016.3016.30-17.80-17.80
BradleyMVC6.116.1131.0331.03-2.32-2.32
Wichita St.MVC4.614.6187.1087.103.423.42
Missouri St.MVC4.564.5650.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC4.554.5580.0080.002.732.73
Southern IllinoisMVC4.504.5050.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC4.504.5044.8344.83-0.47-0.47
Indiana St.MVC4.464.4632.1432.14-1.59-1.59
Northern IowaMVC4.464.4640.7440.74-0.83-0.83
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.444.4453.5753.570.320.32
South Dakota St.Sum1.951.9548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum1.831.8363.3363.330.490.49
DePaulBE1.831.8325.8125.81-0.89-0.89
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.811.8122.5822.58-0.99-0.99
Iowa St.B121.811.8168.7568.750.680.68
UMKCWAC1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC1.781.7839.2939.29-0.38-0.38
Fresno St.MWC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
IonaMAAC1.721.7263.6463.640.470.47
UC DavisBW1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2221.4321.43-0.13-0.13
Chicago St.WAC0.220.2210.3410.34-0.17-0.17
Murray St.OVC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.220.2282.3582.350.140.14
TCUB120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
XavierBE0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.190.1957.1457.140.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.176.906.90-0.14-0.14
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
TulsaAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
DenverSum0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1129.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00