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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:174.0
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:148
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16174.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9UIC (315.0)HorzA59-61W100%0.0
11-16Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA67-63L0%0.0
11-23Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH88-80W100%0.0
11-29Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA74-84W100%0.0
11-30Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyN76-56W100%0.0
12-1Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACN57-65W100%0.0
12-7Iowa (56.0)B10N83-66L0%0.0
12-14New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH69-81L0%0.0
12-18Western Michigan (66.0)MACH71-68W100%0.0
12-23Albany (185.0)AEH71-63W100%0.0
12-29IUPUI (322.0)SumA52-75W100%0.0
1-1Evansville (214.0)MVCH94-66W100%0.0
1-4Bradley (265.0)MVCA68-57L0%0.0
1-8Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH73-77L0%0.0
1-11Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA76-66L0%0.0
1-15Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA70-60L0%0.0
1-18Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH63-77L0%0.0
1-22Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA54-57W100%0.0
1-25Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH61-78L0%0.0
1-29Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH84-74W100%0.0
2-1Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA75-57L0%0.0
2-4Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH58-74L0%0.0
2-9Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA60-56L0%0.0
2-12Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA69-63L0%0.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH70-62W100%0.0
2-18Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH70-67W100%0.0
2-22Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA83-54L0%0.0
2-25Evansville (214.0)MVCA61-48L0%0.0
3-1Bradley (265.0)MVCH71-66W100%0.0
3-6Evansville (214.0)MVCN61-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4026.4046.2746.27-1.97-1.97
EvansvilleMVC5.935.9335.7135.71-1.70-1.70
Wichita St.MVC4.444.44100.00100.004.444.44
Indiana St.MVC4.434.4365.5265.521.371.37
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.384.3827.5927.59-1.96-1.96
Southern IllinoisMVC4.354.3540.0040.00-0.87-0.87
Missouri St.MVC4.354.3562.0762.071.051.05
BradleyMVC4.334.3336.6736.67-1.15-1.15
Illinois St.MVC4.294.2946.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Northern IowaMVC4.294.2950.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum1.911.9110.7110.71-1.50-1.50
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Nebraska OmahaSum1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC1.771.7772.7372.730.810.81
Fresno St.MWC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
IowaB101.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
Western MichiganMAC1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
AlbanyAE1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Saint Mary'sWCC1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Chicago St.WAC0.290.2936.6736.67-0.08-0.08
NorthwesternB100.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
IPFWSum0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
OhioMAC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1778.5778.570.100.10
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.160.1610.7110.71-0.13-0.13
Murray St.OVC0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Saint LouisA100.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
PacificWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
MissouriSEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
La SalleA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01