live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:325.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:197
Current Record:6-24
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-24325.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Tulane (227.0)AmerA79-74L0%0.0
11-21UMKC (286.0)WACH73-79L0%0.0
11-23Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAN81-79W100%0.0
11-24Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN74-58L0%0.0
11-25Pepperdine (129.0)WCCN69-53W100%0.0
11-28Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH83-62W100%0.0
12-5Bowling Green (200.0)MACA75-63L0%0.0
12-9DePaul (198.0)BEH71-74L0%0.0
12-12Nevada (118.0)MWCA79-71L0%0.0
12-19Iowa (28.0)B10N70-64L0%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH87-70W100%0.0
12-31Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA67-47L0%0.0
1-3Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH62-67L0%0.0
1-6Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH69-79L0%0.0
1-9Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA77-44L0%0.0
1-12Evansville (93.0)MVCA84-65L0%0.0
1-17Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH76-81L0%0.0
1-20Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH70-79L0%0.0
1-23Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA68-63L0%0.0
1-26Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA76-64L0%0.0
1-30Bradley (306.0)MVCH80-70W100%0.0
2-2Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA63-56L0%0.0
2-6Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH66-82L0%0.0
2-9Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH48-74L0%0.0
2-13Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA75-60L0%0.0
2-17Evansville (93.0)MVCH74-80L0%0.0
2-20Bradley (306.0)MVCA73-70L0%0.0
2-24Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA61-52L0%0.0
2-27Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH69-59W100%0.0
3-3Missouri St. (235.0)MVCN69-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.3926.3916.1816.18-17.85-17.85
Missouri St.MVC5.895.8932.1432.14-2.11-2.11
EvansvilleMVC4.424.4270.9770.971.851.85
Northern IowaMVC4.394.3961.2961.290.990.99
Wichita St.MVC4.394.3972.4172.411.971.97
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.374.3744.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Indiana St.MVC4.364.3641.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Illinois St.MVC4.314.3151.7251.720.150.15
Southern IllinoisMVC4.284.2866.6766.671.431.43
BradleyMVC4.284.2810.3410.34-3.40-3.40
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.801.8011.1111.11-1.40-1.40
IowaB101.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
NevadaMWC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
DePaulBE1.701.7026.6726.67-0.79-0.79
UMKCWAC1.691.6929.6329.63-0.69-0.69
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.671.6734.6234.62-0.51-0.51
Bowling GreenMAC1.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
PepperdineWCC1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
TulaneAmer1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Weber St.BSky1.671.6773.3373.330.780.78
TulsaAmer0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2111.1111.11-0.16-0.16
North TexasCUSA0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1980.0080.000.120.12
ButlerBE0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Saint LouisA100.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
OaklandHorz0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
BYUWCC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
UABCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.060.06
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01