live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:264.6
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:99
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22264.6100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Bowling Green (92.6)MACH58-77L0%0.0
11-18DePaul (177.1)BEA80-62L0%0.0
11-22Western Michigan (116.9)MACA91-75L0%0.0
11-25IUPUI (252.9)SumH73-60W100%0.0
11-28Valparaiso (64.6)HorzN66-46L0%0.0
11-29Portland (157.0)WCCN59-71L0%0.0
11-30Murray St. (66.5)OVCN59-68L0%0.0
12-6North Dakota (306.0)BSkyH62-63L0%0.0
12-13Green Bay (59.6)HorzA64-48L0%0.0
12-15Jackson St. (313.3)SWACH76-66W100%0.0
12-20Iowa St. (15.1)B12N83-54L0%0.0
12-31Wichita St. (11.0)MVCH58-66L0%0.0
1-3Missouri St. (240.8)MVCA62-37L0%0.0
1-7Illinois St. (77.3)MVCA81-45L0%0.0
1-10Northern Iowa (14.2)MVCH40-64L0%0.0
1-14Loyola Chicago (124.1)MVCA50-47L0%0.0
1-17Indiana St. (174.7)MVCH84-78W100%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (77.3)MVCH56-64L0%0.0
1-25Wichita St. (11.0)MVCA74-40L0%0.0
1-28Bradley (289.0)MVCA57-69W100%0.0
1-31Evansville (108.4)MVCH70-65W100%0.0
2-4Southern Illinois (279.8)MVCH63-61W100%0.0
2-7Northern Iowa (14.2)MVCA69-53L0%0.0
2-11Bradley (289.0)MVCH60-54W100%0.0
2-14Indiana St. (174.7)MVCA75-54L0%0.0
2-17Evansville (108.4)MVCA61-52L0%0.0
2-22Missouri St. (240.8)MVCH78-43W100%0.0
2-25Loyola Chicago (124.1)MVCH75-80L0%0.0
2-28Southern Illinois (279.8)MVCA63-57L0%0.0
3-5Bradley (289.0)MVCN50-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4826.4721.8821.88-14.89-14.89
BradleyMVC5.915.9125.0025.00-2.96-2.96
Southern IllinoisMVC4.394.3934.4834.48-1.36-1.36
EvansvilleMVC4.384.3862.9662.961.141.14
Illinois St.MVC4.354.3559.2659.260.810.81
Missouri St.MVC4.354.3529.6329.63-1.77-1.77
Northern IowaMVC4.334.3389.2989.293.403.40
Indiana St.MVC4.324.3248.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.324.3153.8553.850.330.33
Wichita St.MVC4.294.2988.8988.893.343.34
Murray St.OVC1.891.8985.1985.191.331.33
ValparaisoHorz1.791.7981.4881.481.121.12
Green BayHorz1.781.7874.0774.070.860.86
IUPUISum1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
Jackson St.SWAC1.731.7337.9338.48-0.42-0.40
PortlandWCC1.731.7348.1548.15-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE1.721.7237.9337.62-0.42-0.43
North DakotaBSky1.721.7219.2319.22-1.06-1.06
Western MichiganMAC1.701.7055.5655.140.190.17
Bowling GreenMAC1.701.7069.2367.590.650.60
Iowa St.B121.671.6771.4371.090.710.70
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.340.3423.3323.33-0.18-0.18
Saint LouisA100.250.2534.4833.47-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.240.2322.2223.21-0.13-0.12
DetroitHorz0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.200.2065.5265.400.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.200.2060.0058.930.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.180.1732.1432.89-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.170.1743.3342.02-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1753.5753.570.010.01
Seton HallBE0.170.1755.1753.880.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1776.0075.240.070.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.1541.3841.54-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1453.8553.590.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1444.4444.65-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1426.9229.11-0.07-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1462.5061.820.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1418.5217.90-0.09-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Kansas St.B120.140.1450.0048.790.00-0.00
TCUB120.110.1456.6756.080.010.02
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1233.3333.97-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.120.1258.6257.930.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.1268.9769.170.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1268.9769.350.040.04
TulsaAmer0.110.1175.0073.120.060.05
VCUA100.110.1170.0070.800.050.05
XavierBE0.110.1160.0060.270.020.02
ButlerBE0.110.1170.0069.320.050.04
DenverSum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1159.2658.620.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.090.0921.4321.44-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0965.3864.200.030.03
PacificWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0963.3363.000.020.02
UtahP120.090.0978.5779.000.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.090.0942.3142.01-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.4346.45-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.1754.370.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0939.2940.13-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0863.3363.730.020.02
UABCUSA0.090.0851.7252.180.000.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0850.0048.750.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0814.8114.59-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0837.9339.05-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.080.0866.6767.380.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0860.0061.160.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.4345.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0855.5656.790.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0853.5753.990.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.9325.36-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0675.0075.650.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.3393.330.050.05
Michigan St.B100.060.0666.6766.280.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0657.6958.450.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0655.1755.550.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0646.1547.44-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.3143.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0662.9661.330.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.12-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.060.0640.7438.88-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.7681.940.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0646.4345.04-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0658.6259.040.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0663.3362.470.020.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0664.2965.480.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0679.3179.430.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.0660.7160.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0641.3841.25-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0627.5928.43-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0672.4173.250.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0628.5727.77-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0680.0078.510.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0623.3322.92-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0668.9768.870.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0660.7159.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0685.1984.850.040.04
TexasB120.060.0660.0060.890.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0673.3373.210.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0577.7877.780.030.03
CreightonBE0.060.0543.3342.95-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0567.8668.400.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.050.000.54-0.06-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.4329.84-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0541.3843.04-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0570.0069.390.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0568.9767.090.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0560.0060.470.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0593.3393.140.050.05
YaleIvy0.050.0570.3768.760.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0379.3178.680.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0370.3770.210.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0337.9338.68-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0342.3143.00-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0314.8115.68-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.3363.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0348.2848.63-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0355.1755.990.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0327.5927.73-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.2848.71-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0323.0823.56-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.7253.220.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0390.0088.730.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0344.8345.40-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0380.0079.770.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0383.3382.790.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0363.3363.340.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5729.65-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0346.4346.55-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0348.2848.75-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0355.5656.140.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.250.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0357.1458.010.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0362.0760.280.010.01