live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Drake

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:85
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:99


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17143.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drake.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Detroit (63.0)HorzA85-79L0%0.0
11-22California (54.0)P12N73-70L0%0.0
11-23Rice (324.0)CUSAN77-66W100%0.0
11-25Xavier (87.0)A10N70-74L0%0.0
11-30Nevada (171.0)MWCA66-76W100%0.0
12-5St. Mary's (29.0)WCCH73-88L0%0.0
12-8IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH74-64W100%0.0
12-15Iowa St. (41.0)B12N86-77L0%0.0
12-19North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH72-69W100%0.0
12-22Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCH74-56W100%0.0
12-29Bradley (190.0)MVCA67-57L0%0.0
1-2Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH63-75L0%0.0
1-5Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH65-77L0%0.0
1-8Creighton (25.0)MVCA91-61L0%0.0
1-12Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA77-82W100%0.0
1-16Evansville (106.0)MVCH83-69W100%0.0
1-20Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA85-55L0%0.0
1-23Creighton (25.0)MVCH74-69W100%0.0
1-27Missouri St. (203.0)MVCA78-72L0%0.0
1-30Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA56-61W100%0.0
2-2Indiana St. (74.0)MVCH74-71W100%0.0
2-6Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH86-94L0%0.0
2-10Evansville (106.0)MVCA84-78L0%0.0
2-13Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA71-56L0%0.0
2-16Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCH64-71L0%0.0
2-20Bradley (190.0)MVCH92-84W100%0.0
2-23Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH71-54W100%0.0
2-27Indiana St. (74.0)MVCA56-67W100%0.0
3-2Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH63-66L0%0.0
3-7Bradley (190.0)MVCN66-81W100%0.0
3-8Creighton (25.0)MVCN65-53L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drake's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drake's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drake.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrakeMVC26.4526.4542.7642.76-3.83-3.83
CreightonMVC5.865.8680.6580.653.593.59
BradleyMVC5.725.7251.7251.720.200.20
Wichita St.MVC4.374.3775.0075.002.182.18
Indiana St.MVC4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
Illinois St.MVC4.244.2454.8454.840.410.41
Missouri St.MVC4.234.2324.1424.14-2.19-2.19
Northern IowaMVC4.214.2151.7251.720.150.15
Southern IllinoisMVC4.214.2142.8642.86-0.60-0.60
EvansvilleMVC4.184.1855.1755.170.430.43
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
St. Mary'sWCC1.741.7480.6580.651.061.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.711.7136.6736.67-0.46-0.46
DetroitHorz1.711.7158.6258.620.290.29
CaliforniaP121.681.6863.3363.330.450.45
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.661.6670.3770.370.680.68
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Iowa St.B121.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
RiceCUSA1.611.6114.2914.29-1.15-1.15
XavierA101.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
TulsaCUSA0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
IUPUISum0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
WyomingMWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
UABCUSA0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.140.1418.1818.18-0.09-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
PacificBW0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
YaleIvy0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
IowaB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MemphisCUSA0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1128.0028.00-0.05-0.05
St. LouisA100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ToledoMAC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TempleA100.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
OregonP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DenverWAC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
OaklandSum0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TexasB120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.7593.750.070.07
MichiganB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
KansasB120.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01