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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:133.0
Current RPI:133
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:107
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:133



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15133.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Nevada (137.0)MWCA78-80W100%0.0
11-12UC Irvine (111.0)BWH84-79W100%0.0
11-17Western Illinois (290.0)SumH66-52W100%0.0
11-23Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH86-77W100%0.0
11-29Oregon (28.0)P12A85-62L0%0.0
11-30Cal Poly (208.0)BWN71-73W100%0.0
12-1North Dakota (197.0)BSkyN93-76W100%0.0
12-7Utah St. (116.0)MWCA68-78W100%0.0
12-20Princeton (122.0)IvyN83-58L0%0.0
12-21Bradley (265.0)MVCN71-55W100%0.0
12-30Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH80-88L0%0.0
1-2Portland (178.0)WCCA72-64L0%0.0
1-4Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA86-64L0%0.0
1-9San Francisco (68.0)WCCH72-81L0%0.0
1-11Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH80-68W100%0.0
1-18Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA79-73L0%0.0
1-23Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH81-92L0%0.0
1-25Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH76-66W100%0.0
1-30BYU (31.0)WCCA88-78L0%0.0
2-1San Diego (156.0)WCCA67-84W100%0.0
2-6Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA80-69L0%0.0
2-8Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA72-82W100%0.0
2-13BYU (31.0)WCCH89-82W100%0.0
2-15San Diego (156.0)WCCH55-70L0%0.0
2-20Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA70-50L0%0.0
2-22San Francisco (68.0)WCCA64-59L0%0.0
2-27Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH53-70L0%0.0
3-1Portland (178.0)WCCH68-65W100%0.0
3-6Santa Clara (210.0)WCCN64-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC26.4226.4248.1248.12-0.99-0.99
Santa ClaraWCC6.146.1435.7135.71-1.75-1.75
BYUWCC4.614.6167.7467.741.641.64
GonzagaWCC4.584.5880.6580.652.812.81
San FranciscoWCC4.554.5560.7160.710.970.97
Loyola MarymountWCC4.524.5237.9337.93-1.09-1.09
PortlandWCC4.504.5048.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Saint Mary'sWCC4.504.5063.3363.331.201.20
PepperdineWCC4.474.4746.4346.43-0.32-0.32
San DiegoWCC4.444.4446.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Cal PolyBW2.052.0537.9337.93-0.50-0.50
UC IrvineBW1.921.9267.7467.740.680.68
NevadaMWC1.921.9248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
OregonP121.921.9270.9770.970.800.80
Utah St.MWC1.891.8956.6756.670.250.25
Fresno St.MWC1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC1.781.7838.7138.71-0.40-0.40
PrincetonIvy1.781.7869.2369.230.680.68
Western IllinoisSum1.751.7526.9226.92-0.81-0.81
San Jose St.MWC0.360.3617.2417.24-0.24-0.24
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.290.2967.8667.860.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.250.2527.5927.59-0.11-0.11
UNLVMWC0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.2457.1457.140.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.2378.5778.570.130.13
San Diego St.MWC0.220.2287.1087.100.170.17
New MexicoMWC0.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.200.203.573.57-0.18-0.18
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.160.1660.7160.710.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
RiceCUSA0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
AmericanPat0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
StanfordP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.050.05
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00