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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:241.0
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:140
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Illinois (328.0)SumA71-73W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (88.0)BWA68-50L0%0.0
11-23Washington (126.0)P12N76-69L0%0.0
11-28Colorado St. (29.0)MWCN75-64L0%0.0
11-29Mercer (212.0)SCN48-55W100%0.0
12-6Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyA62-68W100%0.0
12-14Western Michigan (119.0)MACH72-80L0%0.0
12-18Nevada (306.0)MWCH69-65W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH71-68W100%0.0
12-27San Francisco (181.0)WCCH71-77L0%0.0
12-29Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH40-57L0%0.0
1-1Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA63-77W100%0.0
1-3Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA71-61L0%0.0
1-10Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH47-54L0%0.0
1-15BYU (36.0)WCCH80-93L0%0.0
1-17San Diego (157.0)WCCH59-57W100%0.0
1-22Portland (149.0)WCCA72-69L0%0.0
1-24Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA91-60L0%0.0
1-29Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH43-50L0%0.0
1-31Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH71-76L0%0.0
2-7Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA73-58L0%0.0
2-12San Diego (157.0)WCCA68-48L0%0.0
2-14BYU (36.0)WCCA84-59L0%0.0
2-19Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH74-86L0%0.0
2-21Portland (149.0)WCCH79-77W100%0.0
2-26Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA57-64W100%0.0
2-28San Francisco (181.0)WCCA65-55L0%0.0
3-6San Francisco (181.0)WCCN62-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC26.4726.4732.1432.14-9.45-9.45
San FranciscoWCC6.356.3535.7135.71-1.81-1.81
GonzagaWCC4.784.7893.5593.554.164.16
BYUWCC4.744.7470.0070.001.901.90
PepperdineWCC4.714.7153.5753.570.340.34
PortlandWCC4.684.6850.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC4.684.6846.4346.43-0.33-0.33
Santa ClaraWCC4.684.6839.2939.29-1.00-1.00
Loyola MarymountWCC4.654.6521.4321.43-2.66-2.66
Saint Mary'sWCC4.654.6566.6766.671.551.55
Fresno St.MWC2.022.0244.8344.83-0.21-0.21
Colorado St.MWC1.971.9780.6580.651.201.20
UC IrvineBW1.941.9460.0060.000.390.39
Western MichiganMAC1.901.9056.6756.670.250.25
NevadaMWC1.901.9025.0025.00-0.95-0.95
MercerSC1.811.8153.3353.330.120.12
Idaho St.BSky1.791.7918.5218.52-1.12-1.12
WashingtonP121.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum1.791.7924.0024.00-0.93-0.93
San Jose St.MWC0.410.410.000.00-0.41-0.41
Cal PolyBW0.380.3840.7440.74-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.350.3575.7675.760.180.18
Boise St.MWC0.330.3374.1974.190.160.16
Utah St.MWC0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
HawaiiBW0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
UNLVMWC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Washington St.P120.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
DenverSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
MontanaBSky0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
ColoradoP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
IUPUISum0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
ArizonaP120.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
FurmanSC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01