live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:116
Current Record:6-20
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-20268.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arizona (26.0)P12A79-61L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH76-77L0%0.0
11-21Nevada (118.0)MWCH82-85L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN70-63L0%0.0
11-29Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
12-4UC Irvine (75.0)BWH67-70L0%0.0
12-12Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA71-52L0%0.0
12-15Green Bay (112.0)HorzA93-88L0%0.0
12-21Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH73-72W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (228.0)WCCA89-76L0%0.0
12-31San Diego (302.0)WCCH77-75W100%0.0
1-2BYU (76.0)WCCH67-81L0%0.0
1-7Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA81-76L0%0.0
1-9Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA58-60W100%0.0
1-14Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
1-21Portland (249.0)WCCH70-61W100%0.0
1-23Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH61-71L0%0.0
1-30Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH65-68L0%0.0
2-4San Diego (302.0)WCCA54-43L0%0.0
2-6BYU (76.0)WCCA72-77W100%0.0
2-11Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH72-77L0%0.0
2-13Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH63-65L0%0.0
2-18Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA90-68L0%0.0
2-20Portland (249.0)WCCA80-67L0%0.0
2-25San Francisco (228.0)WCCH79-70W100%0.0
2-27Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA69-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC26.3926.3921.6721.67-14.95-14.95
Loyola MarymountWCC5.085.0842.8642.86-0.73-0.73
Saint Mary'sWCC5.085.0882.7682.763.333.33
GonzagaWCC5.085.0876.6776.672.712.71
PepperdineWCC5.015.0153.5753.570.360.36
Santa ClaraWCC5.015.0132.1432.14-1.79-1.79
BYUWCC4.994.9970.0070.002.002.00
PortlandWCC4.994.9934.4834.48-1.55-1.55
San FranciscoWCC4.984.9848.1548.15-0.18-0.18
San DiegoWCC4.954.9525.9325.93-2.38-2.38
Cal St. FullertonBW2.272.2725.9325.93-1.09-1.09
UC IrvineBW2.182.1870.9770.970.920.92
Fresno St.MWC2.152.1570.9770.970.900.90
NevadaMWC2.082.0855.1755.170.220.22
ArizonaP122.082.0875.0075.001.041.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.062.0648.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky2.052.0539.2939.29-0.44-0.44
Green BayHorz1.921.9262.5062.500.480.48
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.390.3928.5728.57-0.17-0.17
UC DavisBW0.390.3932.1432.14-0.14-0.14
UC RiversideBW0.320.3238.7138.71-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.320.3262.0762.070.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.310.3156.2556.250.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2221.4321.43-0.13-0.13
San Diego St.MWC0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Weber St.BSky0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.2210.7110.71-0.17-0.17
New MexicoMWC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1914.2914.29-0.14-0.14
UNLVMWC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
StanfordP120.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
IdahoBSky0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
WashingtonP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
SeattleWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
OregonP120.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01