Pacific

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	190.0
Current RPI:	190
Expected SOS:	120
Current SOS:	120
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	214
Expected OOC SOS:	91

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	190.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	89-80	L	0%
11-15	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	58-62	L	0%
11-18	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	74-89	L	0%
11-21	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	71-83	W	100%
11-24	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	78-69	W	100%
11-25	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	78-85	L	0%
11-26	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	80-58	W	100%
11-30	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	55-57	W	100%
12-6	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	71-67	L	0%
12-9	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	86-72	L	0%
12-16	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	76-81	L	0%
12-22	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	104-65	L	0%
12-28	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	81-48	L	0%
12-30	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	88-82	W	100%
1-4	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	74-56	L	0%
1-6	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	67-66	W	100%
1-11	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	74-70	W	100%
1-13	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	54-66	W	100%
1-18	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	92-78	W	100%
1-20	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	69-72	L	0%
1-25	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	69-67	L	0%
1-27	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	80-65	L	0%
2-1	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	45-63	W	100%
2-3	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	72-81	W	100%
2-8	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	61-71	L	0%
2-10	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	60-58	W	100%
2-15	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	55-67	W	100%
2-17	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	68-72	L	0%
2-22	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	74-84	L	0%
2-24	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	74-71	L	0%
3-3	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	N	71-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pacific	WCC	26.42	26.42	41.72	41.72	-4.37	-4.37
San Francisco	WCC	5.84	5.84	48.28	48.28	-0.20	-0.20
Gonzaga	WCC	4.29	4.29	87.50	87.50	3.22	3.22
BYU	WCC	4.26	4.26	71.88	71.88	1.86	1.86
Pepperdine	WCC	4.23	4.23	17.24	17.24	-2.77	-2.77
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.23	4.23	32.14	32.14	-1.51	-1.51
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.21	4.21	83.87	83.87	2.85	2.85
Santa Clara	WCC	4.19	4.19	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
Portland	WCC	4.15	4.15	25.93	25.93	-2.00	-2.00
San Diego	WCC	4.15	4.15	60.71	60.71	0.89	0.89
UC Davis	BW	3.41	3.41	64.29	64.29	0.97	0.97
Nevada	MWC	1.95	1.95	78.79	78.79	1.12	1.12
UC Riverside	BW	1.91	1.91	25.00	25.00	-0.95	-0.95
Air Force	MWC	1.84	1.84	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
UNLV	MWC	1.79	1.79	59.38	59.38	0.34	0.34
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.75	1.75	41.18	41.18	-0.31	-0.31
Stanford	P12	1.74	1.74	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Arizona St.	P12	1.74	1.74	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Wyoming	MWC	1.71	1.71	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Canisius	MAAC	1.69	1.69	67.74	67.74	0.60	0.60
Texas St.	SB	1.69	1.69	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
San Jose St.	MWC	0.44	0.44	10.34	10.34	-0.35	-0.35
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.38	0.38	62.07	62.07	0.09	0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.35	0.35	67.74	67.74	0.13	0.13
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.34	0.34	70.00	70.00	0.14	0.14
Long Beach St.	BW	0.32	0.32	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.31	0.31	73.33	73.33	0.15	0.15
Utah St.	MWC	0.30	0.30	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.30	0.30	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
UC Irvine	BW	0.26	0.26	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
Washington	P12	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.22	0.22	14.29	14.29	-0.15	-0.15
Hawaii	BW	0.21	0.21	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.20	0.20	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.19	0.19	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	BSky	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01