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Through games of Feb 25, 2015.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:242.9
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:109
Current Record:8-17
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17213.15.56%
9-18231.937.13%
8-19252.957.31%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Illinois (320.6)SumA71-73W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (107.9)BWA68-50L0%0.0
11-23Washington (105.8)P12N76-69L0%0.0
11-28Colorado St. (28.0)MWCN75-64L0%0.0
11-29Mercer (200.5)SCN48-55W100%0.0
12-6Idaho St. (341.1)BSkyA62-68W100%0.0
12-14Western Michigan (120.5)MACH72-80L0%0.0
12-18Nevada (298.1)MWCH69-65W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (199.9)MWCH71-68W100%0.0
12-27San Francisco (184.1)WCCH71-77L0%0.0
12-29Santa Clara (199.9)WCCH40-57L0%0.0
1-1Loyola Marymount (244.7)WCCA63-77W100%0.0
1-3Pepperdine (150.7)WCCA71-61L0%0.0
1-10Saint Mary's (54.2)WCCH47-54L0%0.0
1-15BYU (47.8)WCCH80-93L0%0.0
1-17San Diego (157.6)WCCH59-57W100%0.0
1-22Portland (133.7)WCCA72-69L0%0.0
1-24Gonzaga (7.2)WCCA91-60L0%0.0
1-29Pepperdine (150.7)WCCH43-50L0%0.0
1-31Loyola Marymount (244.7)WCCH71-76L0%0.0
2-7Saint Mary's (54.2)WCCA73-58L0%0.0
2-12San Diego (157.6)WCCA68-48L0%0.0
2-14BYU (47.8)WCCA84-59L0%0.0
2-19Gonzaga (7.2)WCCH74-86L0%0.0
2-21Portland (133.7)WCCH79-77W100%0.0
2-26Santa Clara (199.9)WCCA0-032%-4.9
2-28San Francisco (184.1)WCCA0-016%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC26.4726.4630.4031.13-10.37-9.98
San DiegoWCC4.974.8048.0046.16-0.20-0.37
Loyola MarymountWCC5.014.7723.0822.78-2.70-2.60
Saint Mary'sWCC5.004.7770.8370.302.081.94
PepperdineWCC5.014.7752.0053.270.200.31
GonzagaWCC4.904.7496.1595.784.524.34
BYUWCC4.894.7468.0066.081.761.52
San FranciscoWCC3.044.7438.4638.74-0.70-1.07
PortlandWCC4.894.7354.1753.380.410.32
Santa ClaraWCC3.044.7336.0035.62-0.85-1.36
Fresno St.MWC2.272.0844.0043.26-0.27-0.28
Colorado St.MWC2.152.0181.4880.691.361.24
UC IrvineBW2.192.0156.5256.260.290.25
Western MichiganMAC2.151.9856.0055.340.260.21
NevadaMWC2.111.9825.0026.34-1.06-0.94
MercerSC2.041.8853.8553.910.160.15
Idaho St.BSky2.001.8516.6717.92-1.33-1.19
WashingtonP122.001.8553.8552.650.150.10
Western IllinoisSum2.001.8527.2726.32-0.91-0.88
San Jose St.MWC0.450.450.000.47-0.45-0.45
Cal PolyBW0.340.3947.8347.39-0.01-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.370.3573.0873.180.170.16
San Diego St.MWC0.370.3577.7877.750.210.19
Utah St.MWC0.310.3261.5460.000.070.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.2328.0027.20-0.09-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.270.2353.8554.950.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2342.3146.06-0.04-0.02
Washington St.P120.220.2244.4441.75-0.02-0.04
DenverSum0.240.2042.8642.72-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.230.2051.8553.210.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.1966.6764.530.080.06
HawaiiBW0.190.1959.2659.250.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1950.0051.660.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.190.1950.0050.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.230.1973.0870.040.110.08
StanfordP120.220.1965.3863.410.070.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.1665.5265.760.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.150.1652.1751.330.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.150.1637.5039.25-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1670.8371.710.050.07
Arizona St.P120.180.1655.5654.840.020.02
MontanaBSky0.150.1658.3357.700.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.1644.0043.79-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.110.1646.1545.49-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.180.1658.6260.530.030.03
IUPUISum0.120.1432.1434.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1318.5220.94-0.10-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.160.1323.0822.25-0.08-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1362.9665.180.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.1348.0046.45-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1361.5459.370.030.02
St. John'sBE0.150.1366.6763.980.050.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1338.4639.98-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.150.1357.1453.950.020.01
ArizonaP120.150.1388.8987.550.120.09
UtahP120.110.1380.0080.380.070.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1132.0032.49-0.05-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1170.3770.380.050.04
IdahoBSky0.080.1039.1342.42-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.120.1059.2659.530.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.1055.5655.360.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1025.0025.93-0.06-0.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1062.9660.350.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1030.7734.59-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1028.5728.59-0.05-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.1053.8551.200.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.1064.2963.570.020.03
OregonP120.120.0971.4369.280.050.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0929.6331.11-0.03-0.04
USCP120.070.0935.7135.30-0.02-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0966.6765.740.040.03
IPFWSum0.040.0750.0052.600.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0769.2368.450.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0750.0050.470.000.00
South DakotaSum0.090.0746.4345.84-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0746.4344.28-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0748.0048.61-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0764.2964.530.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0770.3768.510.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0784.6284.250.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.040.0772.0070.730.020.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.1458.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0765.5265.450.010.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0741.6742.26-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0726.9228.80-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0729.1730.16-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.040.0782.6178.720.030.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0733.3334.34-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0781.4880.350.050.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0638.4639.16-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0655.5654.640.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0641.6744.76-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0642.3140.18-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0624.0025.19-0.04-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0666.6767.400.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0678.2676.750.020.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0666.6766.300.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0641.3840.26-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0656.0055.550.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0660.0062.140.010.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0654.1753.550.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.063.705.04-0.07-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0669.2369.910.010.03
FurmanSC0.070.0620.0020.32-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0635.0034.31-0.01-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0657.1456.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0648.1545.24-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0625.0030.33-0.04-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0640.0040.27-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0645.8346.48-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0666.6764.600.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0639.2938.98-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0629.1729.65-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0664.2963.760.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0623.0825.10-0.04-0.03
VMISC0.070.0636.0037.22-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0642.3143.79-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0689.2988.680.060.05
WoffordSC0.040.0677.7877.410.020.04
XavierBE0.070.0662.0761.660.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0644.4442.96-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0680.7778.960.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0655.5657.590.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0673.0873.650.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0466.6766.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0418.5219.29-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0461.5462.580.010.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0324.1424.86-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0355.5653.660.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0353.8554.350.000.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0373.0873.870.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0328.0028.79-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.040.0325.0027.58-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0356.0056.520.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0330.4332.32-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0330.7731.61-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0372.0070.110.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0341.6741.70-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0338.4638.60-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0329.6329.37-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0366.6764.480.010.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0317.8618.19-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.040.0340.7440.54-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0357.6959.080.010.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0350.0048.140.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0350.0048.910.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0334.6233.73-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0334.7833.25-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0370.3769.470.020.01
Texas TechB120.040.0341.3839.54-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0362.5061.540.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0369.2370.390.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.030.001.36-0.04-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0333.3332.84-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0370.3769.810.020.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0345.8346.06-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.040.0364.2964.460.010.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0350.0049.880.00-0.00