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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:231.5
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:294
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:7-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1071.00.03%
14-11103.10.14%
13-12118.40.52%
12-13138.31.77%
11-14158.54.19%
10-15180.19.02%
9-16201.214.28%
8-17222.817.78%
7-18241.819.40%
6-19261.315.83%
5-20278.510.73%
4-21295.04.72%
3-22308.51.31%
2-23318.00.25%
1-24330.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Illinois (286.8)SumA71-73W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (117.3)BWA68-50L0%0.0
11-23Washington (96.8)P12A0-011%-14.6
12-6Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyA0-058%2.3
12-14Western Michigan (127.8)MACH0-044%-1.7
12-18Nevada (164.3)MWCH0-041%-2.7
12-20Fresno St. (210.4)MWCH0-054%1.1
12-27San Francisco (96.1)WCCH0-029%-6.8
12-29Santa Clara (167.4)WCCH0-042%-2.3
1-1Loyola Marymount (228.1)WCCA0-038%-3.7
1-3Pepperdine (152.9)WCCA0-021%-9.8
1-10Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCH0-019%-10.6
1-15BYU (34.5)WCCH0-018%-11.2
1-17San Diego (122.8)WCCH0-036%-4.2
1-22Portland (152.7)WCCA0-021%-9.6
1-24Gonzaga (14.1)WCCA0-02%-25.7
1-29Pepperdine (152.9)WCCH0-041%-2.6
1-31Loyola Marymount (228.1)WCCH0-061%3.5
2-7Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCA0-07%-17.8
2-12San Diego (122.8)WCCA0-017%-11.4
2-14BYU (34.5)WCCA0-06%-18.4
2-19Gonzaga (14.1)WCCH0-06%-18.5
2-21Portland (152.7)WCCH0-042%-2.5
2-26Santa Clara (167.4)WCCA0-022%-9.5
2-28San Francisco (96.1)WCCA0-012%-13.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC35.4226.5770.0029.6014.17-10.84
PepperdineWCC0.005.20100.0049.430.00-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.005.20100.0070.650.002.15
San DiegoWCC0.005.2066.6746.340.00-0.38
Loyola MarymountWCC0.005.2033.3325.24-0.00-2.57
GonzagaWCC0.005.17100.0086.530.003.78
BYUWCC0.005.16100.0068.640.001.93
PortlandWCC0.005.16100.0050.370.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.005.16100.0060.640.001.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.005.1550.0042.920.00-0.73
Fresno St.MWC0.002.180.0032.57-0.00-0.76
UC IrvineBW25.002.180.0061.65-25.000.51
NevadaMWC0.002.0733.3346.28-0.00-0.15
Western MichiganMAC0.002.07100.0054.680.000.19
Idaho St.BSky0.002.000.0027.82-0.00-0.89
WashingtonP120.002.00100.0056.380.000.26
Western IllinoisSum25.002.0050.0034.150.00-0.63
Cal PolyBW0.000.4450.0037.760.00-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.000.400.0017.53-0.00-0.26
Utah St.MWC0.000.3375.0057.480.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.3375.0063.040.000.09
San Diego St.MWC0.000.33100.0080.630.000.20
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2633.3335.92-0.00-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2533.3354.70-0.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.2533.3327.58-0.00-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2233.3353.79-0.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.2275.0054.790.000.02
StanfordP120.000.2275.0071.090.000.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2150.0046.250.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1950.0061.440.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.19100.0071.440.000.08
UNLVMWC0.000.1875.0053.210.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.18100.0056.330.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1866.6768.230.000.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.18100.0050.420.000.00
UCLAP120.000.18100.0062.510.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1550.0031.810.00-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.15100.0062.400.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1533.3341.92-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0028.19-0.00-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.150.0055.87-0.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.15100.0070.850.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1575.0059.530.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1550.0044.170.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1575.0069.830.000.06
ColoradoP120.000.1566.6760.720.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.150.0048.00-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.140.0023.51-0.00-0.08
Oregon St.P120.000.14100.0049.460.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.1466.6769.700.000.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.140.0048.20-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP126.250.14100.0069.326.250.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1266.6746.620.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1266.6763.730.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1133.3346.93-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1150.0047.120.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1150.0045.890.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0025.08-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0032.69-0.00-0.04
USCP120.000.1150.0027.780.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.110.0066.25-0.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.170.110.0034.07-4.17-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.110.0040.40-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1125.0066.02-0.000.03
OregonP120.000.11100.0071.440.000.05
IPFWSum0.000.0850.0063.720.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0044.810.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0833.3349.42-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.080.0042.57-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.080.0036.36-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0866.6760.610.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0046.020.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0049.250.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0866.6771.600.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.08100.0045.990.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0042.680.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0833.3364.19-0.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.27-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.73-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0033.75-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0042.650.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
XavierBE0.000.07100.0077.070.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.850.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0064.090.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0035.51-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0750.0065.570.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0775.0060.410.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0071.840.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0766.6767.450.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.36-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0019.17-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0052.540.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6749.370.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0766.6754.020.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0766.6758.190.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0750.0037.110.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0068.880.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0037.22-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.040.0063.44-0.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.170.0425.0035.65-2.08-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0466.6744.970.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.04100.0061.500.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.04100.0070.980.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0466.6734.100.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.040.0041.97-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0042.120.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.040.0032.48-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0450.0056.270.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.040.0027.82-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0450.0051.120.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.04100.0063.550.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0466.6751.200.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.04100.0056.980.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0466.6746.900.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0475.0057.060.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.040.0025.50-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0450.0049.760.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.040.0044.01-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.040.0053.10-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0450.0058.120.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0433.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0433.3364.76-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0450.0035.040.00-0.01