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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:241.2
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:111
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-15175.40.11%
10-16196.02.82%
9-17213.415.42%
8-18232.231.73%
7-19251.532.60%
6-20269.314.90%
5-21283.12.41%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arizona (26.0)P12A79-61L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Fullerton (284.8)BWH76-77L0%0.0
11-21Nevada (135.1)MWCH82-85L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Washington (208.4)BSkyN70-63L0%0.0
11-29Sacramento St. (248.1)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
12-4UC Irvine (69.7)BWH67-70L0%0.0
12-12Fresno St. (123.2)MWCA71-52L0%0.0
12-15Green Bay (162.5)HorzA93-88L0%0.0
12-21Santa Clara (263.6)WCCH73-72W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (226.0)WCCA89-76L0%0.0
12-31San Diego (289.0)WCCH77-75W100%0.0
1-2BYU (72.5)WCCH67-81L0%0.0
1-7Pepperdine (127.0)WCCA81-76L0%0.0
1-9Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCA58-60W100%0.0
1-14Saint Mary's (38.3)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
1-21Portland (241.6)WCCH70-61W100%0.0
1-23Gonzaga (49.0)WCCH61-71L0%0.0
1-30Saint Mary's (38.3)WCCH65-68L0%0.0
2-4San Diego (289.0)WCCA54-43L0%0.0
2-6BYU (72.5)WCCA72-77W100%0.0
2-11Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCH0-069%5.4
2-13Pepperdine (127.0)WCCH0-039%-3.0
2-18Gonzaga (49.0)WCCA0-03%-20.5
2-20Portland (241.6)WCCA0-034%-4.4
2-25San Francisco (226.0)WCCH0-063%3.6
2-27Santa Clara (263.6)WCCA0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC26.4726.4824.4728.03-13.52-11.63
Loyola MarymountWCC3.615.0340.9140.34-0.66-0.97
Santa ClaraWCC3.445.0231.8231.37-1.25-1.87
PortlandWCC3.465.0041.6738.91-0.58-1.11
San FranciscoWCC3.384.9952.3848.700.16-0.13
GonzagaWCC3.384.9677.2775.271.842.51
San DiegoWCC5.734.9630.0027.54-2.29-2.23
PepperdineWCC3.494.9654.5555.500.320.55
Saint Mary'sWCC5.824.9584.2184.223.983.39
BYUWCC5.674.9368.1870.892.062.06
Cal St. FullertonBW2.892.2931.5829.67-1.07-0.93
UC IrvineBW2.792.2071.4370.631.200.91
Fresno St.MWC2.732.1660.0058.210.550.35
NevadaMWC2.682.0952.6352.850.140.12
ArizonaP122.672.0978.2677.591.511.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.622.0650.0052.300.000.10
Sacramento St.BSky2.612.0638.8943.64-0.58-0.26
Green BayHorz2.501.9252.3854.440.120.17
UC DavisBW0.600.4140.0036.78-0.12-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.400.4128.5728.55-0.17-0.18
UC RiversideBW0.350.3445.8341.66-0.03-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.390.3363.6462.520.110.08
MontanaBSky0.360.3157.8962.290.060.08
Long Beach St.BW0.270.3045.4551.34-0.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.370.2731.5837.72-0.13-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.300.2430.0034.56-0.12-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.290.2425.0022.77-0.14-0.13
Colorado St.MWC0.170.2352.3850.420.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.220.2365.0069.270.070.09
Utah St.MWC0.220.2345.0046.77-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.300.2115.0015.36-0.21-0.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2042.8650.39-0.030.00
StanfordP120.290.2050.0046.610.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.2010.0013.12-0.18-0.15
New MexicoMWC0.230.2060.8762.990.050.05
UCLAP120.160.2056.5253.250.020.01
HawaiiBW0.130.1784.2181.680.090.11
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1745.0046.14-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.230.1761.9056.430.060.02
DenverSum0.230.1754.1751.800.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.240.1772.7372.030.110.07
UNLVMWC0.230.1750.0055.190.000.02
WashingtonP120.220.1665.2261.080.070.04
ColoradoP120.150.1669.5765.300.060.05
IdahoBSky0.130.1454.5554.930.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.250.1440.9143.72-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.250.1447.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.1433.3334.94-0.07-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.120.1345.4538.48-0.01-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.135.007.24-0.10-0.12
WyomingMWC0.180.1343.4842.51-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.170.1365.2262.900.050.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1359.0959.640.020.03
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1375.0076.230.090.07
USCP120.170.1378.2673.060.090.06
Washington St.P120.160.1336.3632.01-0.04-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1066.6767.680.060.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.1047.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.1028.5726.96-0.03-0.05
DrakeMVC0.120.1021.7423.66-0.07-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.109.5213.53-0.09-0.07
RiceCUSA0.120.1028.5729.71-0.05-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1030.4326.49-0.04-0.05
Arizona St.P120.120.1054.1751.650.010.00
OregonP120.170.1081.8278.150.110.05
UtahP120.100.1072.7368.540.050.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.0745.0043.21-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.130.0741.6741.24-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0763.6459.230.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0715.0022.35-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.110.0713.6418.14-0.08-0.04
DuquesneA100.050.0763.6456.370.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0725.0024.37-0.03-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0757.8961.750.010.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.0743.4842.63-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0745.4549.71-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0713.6415.80-0.04-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0733.3335.50-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0720.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0721.7422.74-0.03-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0772.7372.450.020.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0747.6245.86-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0725.0029.27-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0740.0045.51-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.0733.3335.08-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0768.0067.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.000.0790.4885.570.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.050.0747.8346.87-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0778.2678.040.030.04
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0781.8283.030.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.0756.5257.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0730.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0636.8438.40-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.100.0666.6766.540.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.100.0635.0038.53-0.03-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0616.6720.14-0.07-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0654.1755.090.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.500.020.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0456.2556.100.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0360.0060.080.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0360.0057.950.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0376.1968.220.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.37-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0372.7376.350.030.02
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8280.040.040.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.034.357.73-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0359.0959.440.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.5552.810.010.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0350.0052.340.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0317.3920.65-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0359.0960.070.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.860.010.00
KansasB120.060.0381.8277.570.040.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0365.2268.610.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.37-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.36-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.45-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.030.01