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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:206.3
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:227
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-860.00.01%
17-1088.80.04%
16-11100.50.19%
15-12118.90.85%
14-13135.53.13%
13-14154.47.44%
12-15173.613.94%
11-16194.020.56%
10-17214.121.40%
9-18233.718.34%
8-19252.89.65%
7-20269.63.52%
6-21284.80.86%
5-22293.80.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Western Illinois (291.9)SumA71-73W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (192.7)BWA68-50L0%0.0
11-23Washington (29.3)P12A76-69L0%0.0
11-28Colorado St. (34.5)MWCN75-64L0%0.0
11-29Mercer (244.5)SCN48-55W100%0.0
12-6Idaho St. (313.9)BSkyA62-68W100%0.0
12-14Western Michigan (134.6)MACH72-80L0%0.0
12-18Nevada (285.6)MWCH69-65W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (261.2)MWCH71-68W100%0.0
12-27San Francisco (133.4)WCCH0-036%-4.3
12-29Santa Clara (220.1)WCCH0-062%3.7
1-1Loyola Marymount (259.7)WCCA0-043%-2.1
1-3Pepperdine (156.8)WCCA0-019%-10.3
1-10Saint Mary's (114.3)WCCH0-039%-3.3
1-15BYU (53.2)WCCH0-025%-7.8
1-17San Diego (92.2)WCCH0-032%-5.5
1-22Portland (177.1)WCCA0-026%-7.6
1-24Gonzaga (11.3)WCCA0-01%-26.7
1-29Pepperdine (156.8)WCCH0-044%-1.8
1-31Loyola Marymount (259.7)WCCH0-071%6.4
2-7Saint Mary's (114.3)WCCA0-015%-11.9
2-12San Diego (92.2)WCCA0-011%-14.0
2-14BYU (53.2)WCCA0-08%-16.4
2-19Gonzaga (11.3)WCCH0-06%-18.1
2-21Portland (177.1)WCCH0-053%1.0
2-26Santa Clara (220.1)WCCA0-034%-4.9
2-28San Francisco (133.4)WCCA0-013%-12.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC27.7026.4758.1438.344.51-6.17
San DiegoWCC0.624.8254.5556.230.060.60
Saint Mary'sWCC0.314.7862.5056.760.080.65
PepperdineWCC0.254.7866.6754.770.080.46
Loyola MarymountWCC0.314.7725.0022.08-0.15-2.67
GonzagaWCC0.004.7590.9190.330.003.83
BYUWCC0.004.7570.0067.280.001.64
San FranciscoWCC0.004.7545.4550.44-0.000.04
PortlandWCC0.004.7470.0049.810.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.7444.4435.81-0.00-1.35
Fresno St.MWC5.862.0830.0030.57-2.35-0.81
UC IrvineBW5.812.0237.5046.17-1.45-0.15
Colorado St.MWC5.862.01100.0077.445.861.11
Western MichiganMAC5.561.9850.0050.440.000.02
NevadaMWC5.561.9812.5026.34-4.17-0.94
MercerSC5.831.8850.0044.710.00-0.20
Idaho St.BSky5.561.8512.5030.53-4.17-0.72
WashingtonP125.561.85100.0074.725.560.92
Western IllinoisSum5.561.8542.8633.26-0.79-0.62
San Jose St.MWC0.590.450.006.54-0.59-0.39
Cal PolyBW0.560.3937.5041.68-0.14-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.000.3677.7872.900.000.16
San Diego St.MWC0.280.3572.7372.880.130.16
Utah St.MWC0.310.3254.5548.690.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.2336.3637.27-0.08-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2333.3346.57-0.08-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.900.2336.3650.65-0.240.00
Washington St.P120.310.2245.4530.45-0.03-0.09
DenverSum0.590.2041.6751.30-0.100.01
HawaiiBW0.000.2066.6754.450.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.590.2037.5064.62-0.150.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.2037.5037.29-0.08-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.2066.6750.030.000.00
StanfordP120.000.1966.6758.210.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.310.1972.7361.760.140.05
WyomingMWC0.000.1980.0073.560.000.09
Arizona St.P120.000.1754.5549.050.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.310.1770.0059.740.120.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1650.0042.750.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.310.1637.5044.53-0.08-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.1660.0076.800.060.09
MontanaBSky0.280.1622.2247.34-0.15-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0055.800.000.02
ColoradoP120.280.1666.6757.910.090.02
UCLAP120.000.1666.6754.590.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1427.2728.77-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.1450.0042.770.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1318.1822.91-0.00-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1340.0046.04-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.1320.0026.61-0.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1333.3361.51-0.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1370.0051.560.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.1388.8965.680.000.04
ArizonaP120.310.13100.0082.820.310.08
CaliforniaP120.560.1390.9168.430.460.05
UtahP120.000.1380.0080.490.000.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.1150.0055.090.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.1170.0059.860.120.02
AkronMAC0.350.1060.0056.450.070.01
IdahoBSky0.350.1037.5053.02-0.090.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.1040.0051.94-0.070.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.1016.6735.21-0.21-0.03
USCP120.000.1063.6440.160.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.310.1018.1819.54-0.20-0.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1060.0061.850.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.350.1020.0045.83-0.21-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1055.5646.470.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.1070.0057.400.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.250.1080.0073.040.150.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0927.2735.54-0.13-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6763.320.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0054.440.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0054.280.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0043.53-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0733.3343.01-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0787.5067.460.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0787.5085.130.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0725.0037.11-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0777.7871.240.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0785.7170.650.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0769.2349.070.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0066.160.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0730.0043.77-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0766.6759.170.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6766.950.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0760.0064.830.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.60-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0766.6773.340.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0760.0057.960.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0750.0052.960.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0712.5026.95-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0032.85-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0714.2930.32-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0763.6461.500.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.310.0730.0038.42-0.12-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8272.960.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.560.0616.6733.12-0.37-0.02
Seton HallBE0.620.0681.8263.950.390.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.0637.5056.99-0.070.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0637.5035.77-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.35-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.340.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.830.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.84-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.93-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0616.6736.42-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0654.5551.400.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.45-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.93-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0638.4634.30-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2931.52-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0034.83-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.310.0633.3338.75-0.10-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0627.2743.96-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.500.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0042.970.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.960.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0620.0053.25-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.560.0663.6472.270.150.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.350.0428.5761.90-0.150.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.350.0418.1820.68-0.22-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.350.0457.1457.190.050.01
BradleyMVC0.310.0330.0032.35-0.12-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.0355.5656.250.030.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.220.000.01
ClemsonACC0.310.0360.0043.870.06-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.310.0336.3645.36-0.08-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0377.7858.610.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.55-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.63-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.240.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0034.43-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.310.0363.6442.700.08-0.00
OaklandHorz0.310.0327.2732.26-0.14-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.93-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0318.1830.67-0.20-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.310.0350.0048.150.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0333.3338.20-0.08-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.0333.3328.70-0.10-0.01
MaristMAAC0.250.039.0915.53-0.21-0.02
RiceCUSA0.310.0316.6726.53-0.21-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01
Texas TechB120.250.0390.0055.400.200.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.17-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.280.0366.6771.560.090.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.030.009.03-0.28-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.280.0333.3337.25-0.09-0.01
OklahomaB120.280.0370.0062.800.110.01
SeattleWAC0.280.0340.0046.92-0.06-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0340.0055.83-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8956.070.000.00