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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Pacific

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:174.3
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:174
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-956.30.03%
20-1064.50.15%
19-1180.50.67%
18-1296.72.41%
17-13111.75.55%
16-14130.710.81%
15-15149.416.69%
14-16168.819.59%
13-17189.317.58%
12-18210.213.26%
11-19230.47.81%
10-20248.03.82%
9-21265.51.22%
8-22280.90.35%
7-23292.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UCLA (16.9)P12A119-80L0%0.0
11-14Green Bay (162.2)HorzH76-58W100%0.0
11-19UC Irvine (159.9)BWA72-65L0%0.0
11-22Wyoming (151.4)MWCH73-65W100%0.0
11-29Nevada (46.2)MWCA77-67L0%0.0
12-1Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH74-58W100%0.0
12-3Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWA78-77L0%0.0
12-8Massachusetts (109.7)A10A0-027%-7.2
12-10Rider (198.1)MAACH0-068%5.6
12-15North Carolina A&T (343.1)MEACH0-095%19.8
12-17Fresno St. (172.2)MWCH0-058%2.4
12-20Kennesaw St. (310.3)ASunH0-087%13.3
12-29Portland (141.2)WCCH0-056%1.7
12-31Gonzaga (10.0)WCCH0-09%-16.1
1-5San Diego (240.5)WCCA0-060%3.1
1-7BYU (74.5)WCCA0-016%-12.2
1-12Pepperdine (195.4)WCCH0-070%6.4
1-14San Francisco (160.4)WCCA0-040%-3.0
1-19Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCA0-05%-19.7
1-21BYU (74.5)WCCH0-031%-5.9
1-26Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCA0-037%-4.1
1-28San Francisco (160.4)WCCH0-061%3.3
2-2Saint Mary's (16.1)WCCH0-013%-13.5
2-4Pepperdine (195.4)WCCA0-050%0.1
2-9San Diego (240.5)WCCH0-078%9.4
2-11Santa Clara (246.4)WCCH0-071%6.7
2-16Portland (141.2)WCCA0-035%-4.5
2-18Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA0-03%-22.3
2-23Santa Clara (246.4)WCCA0-051%0.4
2-25Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCH0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PacificWCC28.3426.3742.8643.56-4.05-3.39
PortlandWCC0.404.3057.1450.450.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.404.3037.5031.18-0.10-1.62
Saint Mary'sWCC0.404.30100.0089.490.403.39
Santa ClaraWCC0.404.2733.3332.36-0.13-1.51
San FranciscoWCC0.604.2785.7154.100.430.35
Loyola MarymountWCC0.404.2625.0045.25-0.20-0.40
BYUWCC0.004.2562.5066.420.001.40
GonzagaWCC0.004.25100.0092.080.003.57
PepperdineWCC0.004.2442.8633.05-0.00-1.44
NevadaMWC7.141.9075.0070.833.570.79
UC IrvineBW7.141.8737.5051.62-1.790.06
Cal St. FullertonBW7.141.8416.6731.01-4.76-0.70
Fresno St.MWC0.001.7857.1444.010.00-0.21
UCLAP127.141.78100.0086.217.141.29
WyomingMWC7.141.7580.0055.724.290.20
MassachusettsA100.001.7571.4357.690.000.27
RiderMAAC0.001.7557.1451.420.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.750.0021.19-0.00-1.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7525.0030.64-0.00-0.68
Sacramento St.BSky7.141.730.0023.16-7.14-0.93
Green BayHorz7.141.6742.8650.60-1.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.3450.0040.690.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.510.3240.0043.88-0.10-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.290.0033.71-0.00-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.000.2950.0056.890.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.400.2625.0043.29-0.20-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.400.260.0031.31-0.40-0.10
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2660.0069.260.000.10
Utah St.MWC0.400.2342.8650.57-0.060.00
USCP120.000.22100.0076.400.000.12
Cal PolyBW0.000.2142.8641.13-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.600.2150.0045.660.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2171.4360.090.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.400.200.0038.43-0.40-0.05
ArizonaP120.400.1977.7870.290.220.08
MontanaBSky0.600.1825.0048.70-0.30-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1711.1120.27-0.00-0.10
UNLVMWC0.510.1762.5042.780.13-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1757.1448.110.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1762.5058.130.000.03
ColoradoP120.600.1775.0062.450.300.04
WashingtonP120.510.1757.1452.140.070.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1785.7175.250.000.08
Oregon St.P120.400.1725.0023.62-0.20-0.09
Southern UtahBSky0.000.150.0025.31-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.1416.6749.78-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1450.0046.820.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1442.8629.20-0.00-0.06
DaytonA100.000.1471.4373.270.000.07
HawaiiBW0.000.1242.8650.82-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1216.6740.32-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1242.8644.89-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1262.5067.590.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1212.5031.01-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.890.1175.0058.720.450.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1175.0070.350.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1125.0023.99-0.00-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1128.5737.54-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1157.1457.780.000.02
IonaMAAC0.790.1157.1464.540.110.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0940.0054.81-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0971.4355.680.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0942.8640.38-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0942.8636.07-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0962.5060.090.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0925.0041.19-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0912.5033.18-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum1.390.0925.0040.17-0.69-0.02
UtahP120.000.0980.0058.220.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0957.1464.500.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.400.0937.5037.96-0.10-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0975.0069.680.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0026.22-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.03-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.990.0987.5064.760.740.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7169.920.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0812.5029.77-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.400.0885.7177.000.280.05
StanfordP120.000.0866.6758.600.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0871.4368.930.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0850.0064.910.000.02
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.800.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0017.16-0.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.510.0637.5050.92-0.130.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.510.0612.5033.31-0.38-0.02
DenverSum1.190.0642.8645.65-0.17-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0042.78-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.990.0657.1444.830.14-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.07-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.840.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.200.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0525.0038.98-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0562.5055.890.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0550.0041.640.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.490.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0566.6751.140.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0557.1456.540.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0544.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0577.7872.210.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.75-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0520.0060.00-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0566.6770.400.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.34-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.860.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3350.05-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.510.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0371.4337.680.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0020.21-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.41-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.600.0333.3352.49-0.200.00
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.190.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.450.0325.0040.78-0.22-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.400.0383.3379.920.260.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.450.0388.8956.710.350.00
Murray St.OVC0.450.0350.0060.950.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.450.0337.5047.57-0.11-0.00
UMKCWAC0.450.0355.5649.660.05-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4355.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
BradleyMVC0.400.0337.5025.74-0.10-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.400.0333.3352.03-0.130.00
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.400.0387.5082.220.300.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.400.0371.4365.470.170.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0320.0035.15-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01