Pacific

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	288.0
Current RPI:	288
Expected SOS:	263
Current SOS:	263
Current Record:	9-19
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Conf Record:	6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	298
Expected OOC SOS:	238

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-19	288.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	78-54	L	0%
11-25	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	A	75-70	L	0%
11-28	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	79-37	L	0%
12-3	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	H	65-57	W	100%
12-6	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	H	64-54	W	100%
12-10	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	A	79-69	L	0%
12-17	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	A	78-76	L	0%
12-22	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	A	83-53	L	0%
12-29	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	H	47-55	L	0%
1-2	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	A	78-73	L	0%
1-5	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	H	69-73	L	0%
1-7	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	57-64	L	0%
1-12	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	A	59-79	W	100%
1-14	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	A	76-66	L	0%
1-17	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	73-76	L	0%
1-21	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	H	64-48	W	100%
1-26	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	H	61-51	W	100%
1-28	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	H	53-56	L	0%
2-2	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	A	52-60	W	100%
2-4	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	A	64-72	W	100%
2-9	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	H	66-74	L	0%
2-11	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	62-61	W	100%
2-14	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	A	73-64	L	0%
2-18	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	H	66-64	W	100%
2-23	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	H	68-69	L	0%
3-1	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	76-61	L	0%
3-3	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	A	67-38	L	0%
3-8	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	N	72-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pacific	BW	26.61	26.61	30.95	30.95	-10.14	-10.14
UC Santa Barbara	BW	6.39	6.39	60.00	60.00	1.28	1.28
Cal Poly	BW	4.83	4.83	51.72	51.72	0.17	0.17
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.74	4.74	20.83	20.83	-2.76	-2.76
Long Beach St.	BW	4.72	4.72	72.41	72.41	2.12	2.12
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.69	4.69	65.38	65.38	1.44	1.44
UC Davis	BW	4.65	4.65	10.71	10.71	-3.65	-3.65
UC Irvine	BW	4.62	4.62	33.33	33.33	-1.54	-1.54
UC Riverside	BW	4.59	4.59	40.74	40.74	-0.85	-0.85
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.98	3.98	44.00	44.00	-0.48	-0.48
Hawaii	WAC	3.87	3.87	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Fresno St.	WAC	2.18	2.18	33.33	33.33	-0.73	-0.73
Utah St.	WAC	2.15	2.15	53.33	53.33	0.14	0.14
Nevada	WAC	2.15	2.15	79.31	79.31	1.26	1.26
Santa Clara	WCC	2.01	2.01	18.52	18.52	-1.26	-1.26
Stanford	P12	1.87	1.87	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
San Francisco	WCC	1.85	1.85	56.67	56.67	0.25	0.25
Idaho St.	BSky	1.81	1.81	28.57	28.57	-0.78	-0.78
San Jose St.	WAC	0.75	0.75	26.67	26.67	-0.35	-0.35
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.54	0.54	72.73	72.73	0.25	0.25
Idaho	WAC	0.54	0.54	55.17	55.17	0.06	0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.37	0.37	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.35	0.35	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.34	0.34	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.32	0.32	32.14	32.14	-0.11	-0.11
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.31	0.31	75.00	75.00	0.15	0.15
Portland	WCC	0.31	0.31	20.00	20.00	-0.18	-0.18
Brigham Young	WCC	0.28	0.28	74.19	74.19	0.13	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	0.27	0.27	77.42	77.42	0.15	0.15
Seattle	ind	0.26	0.26	37.50	37.50	-0.07	-0.07
Montana St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	37.04	37.04	-0.07	-0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	30.77	30.77	-0.09	-0.09
Southern California	P12	0.24	0.24	18.75	18.75	-0.15	-0.15
California	P12	0.24	0.24	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Montana	BSky	0.24	0.24	79.31	79.31	0.14	0.14
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.22	0.22	11.11	11.11	-0.17	-0.17
Boise St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.21	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.21	0.21	83.33	83.33	0.14	0.14
Portland St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	16.67	16.67	-0.12	-0.12
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	78.57	78.57	0.09	0.09
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.93	25.93	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02