Pacific

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	97.0
Current RPI:	97
Expected SOS:	137
Current SOS:	137
Current Record:	20-12
Expected Record:	20-12
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	127
Expected OOC SOS:	6

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-12	97.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	66-61	L	0%
11-19	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	67-69	L	0%
11-22	Xavier (87.0)	A10	N	67-70	W	100%
11-23	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	N	66-76	W	100%
11-25	California (54.0)	P12	N	78-58	L	0%
12-1	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	85-67	L	0%
12-4	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	78-72	W	100%
12-8	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	67-59	W	100%
12-15	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	71-75	L	0%
12-19	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	74-46	L	0%
12-29	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	67-63	L	0%
1-5	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	64-74	W	100%
1-10	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	80-62	W	100%
1-12	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	77-55	W	100%
1-17	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	60-52	L	0%
1-19	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	62-74	W	100%
1-24	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	63-58	W	100%
1-26	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	71-67	W	100%
2-2	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	77-64	W	100%
2-7	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	67-62	L	0%
2-9	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	66-53	L	0%
2-14	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	66-59	W	100%
2-16	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	80-71	W	100%
2-20	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	68-59	L	0%
2-23	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	67-62	L	0%
2-28	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	55-64	W	100%
3-2	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	68-70	W	100%
3-7	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	70-62	W	100%
3-9	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	71-51	W	100%
3-14	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	N	71-68	W	100%
3-15	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	N	55-53	W	100%
3-16	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	N	64-55	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pacific's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pacific's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pacific.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pacific	BW	26.66	26.66	65.15	65.15	8.08	8.08
Cal Poly	BW	5.80	5.80	57.69	57.69	0.89	0.89
UC Irvine	BW	5.80	5.80	56.67	56.67	0.77	0.77
UC Santa Barbara	BW	5.68	5.68	30.77	30.77	-2.18	-2.18
Long Beach St.	BW	4.30	4.30	57.14	57.14	0.61	0.61
UC Davis	BW	4.23	4.23	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.20	4.20	42.86	42.86	-0.60	-0.60
Hawaii	BW	4.19	4.19	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
UC Riverside	BW	4.14	4.14	15.38	15.38	-2.87	-2.87
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.12	4.12	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
St. Mary's	WCC	3.39	3.39	83.33	83.33	2.26	2.26
Fresno St.	MWC	1.93	1.93	29.63	29.63	-0.78	-0.78
Santa Clara	WCC	1.92	1.92	62.07	62.07	0.46	0.46
Nevada	MWC	1.90	1.90	37.93	37.93	-0.46	-0.46
Gonzaga	WCC	1.81	1.81	93.55	93.55	1.58	1.58
San Francisco	WCC	1.79	1.79	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
California	P12	1.64	1.64	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Western Michigan	MAC	1.56	1.56	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Xavier	A10	1.56	1.56	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Pepperdine	WCC	0.51	0.51	37.93	37.93	-0.12	-0.12
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.49	0.49	31.25	31.25	-0.18	-0.18
San Diego	WCC	0.44	0.44	43.75	43.75	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.34	0.34	73.53	73.53	0.16	0.16
Brigham Young	WCC	0.31	0.31	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.30	0.30	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.26	0.26	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Portland	WCC	0.25	0.25	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Southern California	P12	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00