live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:65
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15104.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Seattle (267.0)WACH88-78W100%0.0
11-14UC Irvine (111.0)BWH72-86L0%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH92-80W100%0.0
11-21Indiana (102.0)B10N84-102L0%0.0
11-22Boston College (207.0)ACCN78-89L0%0.0
11-26Montana (183.0)BSkyH83-79W100%0.0
11-30Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH92-89W100%0.0
12-8San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA70-63L0%0.0
12-14Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyH85-66W100%0.0
12-17Tulane (223.0)CUSAA62-73W100%0.0
12-22Connecticut (22.0)AmerH70-82L0%0.0
12-27Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH95-80W100%0.0
12-29Hartford (234.0)AEH73-67W100%0.0
1-2Arizona St. (44.0)P12A65-76W100%0.0
1-4Arizona (2.0)P12A71-62L0%0.0
1-8Utah (80.0)P12H59-57W100%0.0
1-12Colorado (34.0)P12H71-54W100%0.0
1-15California (63.0)P12A82-56L0%0.0
1-18Stanford (41.0)P12A79-67L0%0.0
1-23Oregon (28.0)P12H80-76W100%0.0
1-25Oregon St. (100.0)P12H87-81W100%0.0
2-1Washington St. (224.0)P12A72-67L0%0.0
2-6Utah (80.0)P12A78-69L0%0.0
2-9Colorado (34.0)P12A91-65L0%0.0
2-12Stanford (41.0)P12H64-60W100%0.0
2-15California (63.0)P12H59-72L0%0.0
2-19Oregon (28.0)P12A78-71L0%0.0
2-22Oregon St. (100.0)P12A62-86W100%0.0
2-28Washington St. (224.0)P12H72-49W100%0.0
3-6UCLA (14.0)P12H82-91L0%0.0
3-8USC (176.0)P12H82-75W100%0.0
3-12Utah (80.0)P12N67-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.2526.2548.4648.46-0.81-0.81
UtahP125.325.3262.9662.961.381.38
Washington St.P123.933.9328.5728.57-1.69-1.69
ColoradoP123.873.8768.7568.751.451.45
StanfordP123.863.8664.5264.521.121.12
OregonP123.843.8473.3373.331.791.79
CaliforniaP123.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
Oregon St.P123.793.7955.1755.170.390.39
ArizonaP122.552.5587.8887.881.931.93
UCLAP122.472.4775.7675.761.271.27
Arizona St.P122.452.4567.7467.740.870.87
USCP122.442.4433.3333.33-0.81-0.81
UC IrvineBW1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.781.7846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Idaho St.BSky1.771.7734.6234.62-0.55-0.55
ConnecticutAmer1.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
MontanaBSky1.671.6755.5655.560.190.19
Long Beach St.BW1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6121.4321.43-0.92-0.92
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
SeattleWAC1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
IndianaB101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
San Diego St.MWC1.591.5986.6786.671.161.16
HartfordAE1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
TulaneCUSA1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
UC DavisBW0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2567.8667.860.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.240.2436.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.240.243.573.57-0.22-0.22
North DakotaBSky0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
IdahoWAC0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
NorthwesternB100.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
NevadaMWC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.070.07
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00