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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:83.0
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:33
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1483.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas (27.0)B12N71-77W100%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH100-67W100%0.0
11-21Penn (283.0)IvyH104-67W100%0.0
11-25Gonzaga (46.0)WCCN64-80L0%0.0
11-26Texas (27.0)B12N70-82L0%0.0
11-27Charlotte (234.0)CUSAN66-71W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH87-69W100%0.0
12-8TCU (174.0)B12H92-67W100%0.0
12-12Montana (145.0)BSkyH92-62W100%0.0
12-19Oakland (116.0)HorzH83-97L0%0.0
12-22Seattle (287.0)WACH79-68W100%0.0
12-28UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH78-83L0%0.0
1-1UCLA (102.0)P12H96-93W100%0.0
1-3USC (51.0)P12H87-85W100%0.0
1-9Washington St. (212.0)P12A95-99W100%0.0
1-14Arizona (26.0)P12A99-67L0%0.0
1-16Arizona St. (99.0)P12A85-89W100%0.0
1-20Colorado (35.0)P12H95-83W100%0.0
1-24Utah (8.0)P12H75-80L0%0.0
1-28UCLA (102.0)P12A84-86W100%0.0
1-30USC (51.0)P12A98-88L0%0.0
2-3Arizona St. (99.0)P12H95-83W100%0.0
2-6Arizona (26.0)P12H72-77L0%0.0
2-10Utah (8.0)P12A90-82L0%0.0
2-13Colorado (35.0)P12A81-80L0%0.0
2-18California (16.0)P12H75-78L0%0.0
2-20Stanford (86.0)P12H64-53W100%0.0
2-24Oregon St. (33.0)P12A82-81L0%0.0
2-28Oregon (2.0)P12A86-73L0%0.0
3-2Washington St. (212.0)P12H99-91W100%0.0
3-9Stanford (86.0)P12N91-68W100%0.0
3-10Oregon (2.0)P12N83-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.2926.2951.4351.430.750.75
ArizonaP123.963.9674.1974.191.921.92
USCP123.963.9664.5264.521.151.15
OregonP123.963.9680.6580.652.432.43
UtahP123.943.9474.1974.191.911.91
Washington St.P123.933.9328.5728.57-1.68-1.68
ColoradoP123.923.9266.6766.671.311.31
UCLAP123.913.9150.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP123.903.9051.8551.850.140.14
Arizona St.P123.893.8950.0050.000.000.00
TexasB123.233.2363.3363.330.860.86
CaliforniaP122.482.4868.7568.750.930.93
Oregon St.P122.472.4758.6258.620.430.43
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.791.7955.1755.170.190.19
GonzagaWCC1.761.7677.4277.420.970.97
Cal St. FullertonBW1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
TCUB121.661.6637.5037.50-0.42-0.42
SeattleWAC1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
MontanaBSky1.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.591.5943.7543.75-0.20-0.20
CharlotteCUSA1.561.5643.7543.75-0.20-0.20
OaklandHorz1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
PennIvy1.561.5638.4638.46-0.36-0.36
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
KansasB120.250.2587.8887.880.190.19
BaylorB120.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
Texas TechB120.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2028.5728.57-0.09-0.09
OklahomaB120.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
Iowa St.B120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
UNLVMWC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
BYUWCC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
UC DavisBW0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
UC IrvineBW0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
IdahoBSky0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1583.8783.870.100.10
SMUAmer0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
PortlandWCC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Portland St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1372.4172.410.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
PacificWCC0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00