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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:211.0
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:50
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:121



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22211.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Yale (128.0)IvyH90-98L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH104-88W100%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH92-58W100%0.0
11-22Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH94-88W100%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAN47-86W100%0.0
11-26TCU (67.0)B12N93-80L0%0.0
11-30TCU (67.0)B12A86-71L0%0.0
12-7Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA98-71L0%0.0
12-11Nevada (29.0)MWCH85-87L0%0.0
12-18Western Michigan (173.0)MACH92-86W100%0.0
12-20Cal Poly (297.0)BWH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Seattle (287.0)WACA72-94W100%0.0
1-1Washington St. (159.0)P12H74-79L0%0.0
1-4Oregon (9.0)P12H61-83L0%0.0
1-7Oregon St. (280.0)P12H87-61W100%0.0
1-12California (53.0)P12A69-59L0%0.0
1-14Stanford (100.0)P12A76-69L0%0.0
1-18Colorado (99.0)P12H85-83W100%0.0
1-21Utah (83.0)P12H72-94L0%0.0
1-25Arizona St. (125.0)P12A86-75L0%0.0
1-29Arizona (2.0)P12A77-66L0%0.0
2-1USC (40.0)P12H74-82L0%0.0
2-4UCLA (16.0)P12H66-107L0%0.0
2-9Colorado (99.0)P12A81-66L0%0.0
2-11Utah (83.0)P12A85-61L0%0.0
2-16Arizona St. (125.0)P12H81-83L0%0.0
2-18Arizona (2.0)P12H68-76L0%0.0
2-26Washington St. (159.0)P12A79-71L0%0.0
3-1UCLA (16.0)P12A98-66L0%0.0
3-4USC (40.0)P12A74-58L0%0.0
3-8USC (40.0)P12N78-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.2926.2923.7423.74-13.81-13.81
USCP125.545.5470.0070.002.222.22
UCLAP124.104.1087.1087.103.043.04
ArizonaP124.084.0887.5087.503.063.06
Washington St.P124.034.0335.7135.71-1.15-1.15
Arizona St.P124.014.0141.9441.94-0.65-0.65
ColoradoP124.004.0056.6756.670.530.53
UtahP123.883.8859.2659.260.720.72
TCUB123.233.2351.6151.610.100.10
OregonP122.492.4984.3884.381.721.72
CaliforniaP122.482.4862.5062.500.620.62
Oregon St.P122.442.4413.3313.33-1.79-1.79
StanfordP122.392.3941.3841.38-0.41-0.41
Long Beach St.BW1.801.8041.9441.94-0.29-0.29
Cal PolyBW1.791.7932.1432.14-0.64-0.64
Cal St. FullertonBW1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
SeattleWAC1.661.6638.4638.46-0.38-0.38
Western MichiganMAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC1.661.6696.8896.881.561.56
NevadaMWC1.641.6481.8281.821.041.04
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
Western KentuckyCUSA1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.340.3418.5218.52-0.21-0.21
UC DavisBW0.300.3062.5062.500.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.280.2857.5857.580.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.270.2722.2222.22-0.15-0.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2735.7135.71-0.08-0.08
UNLVMWC0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.240.2444.8344.83-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.200.2087.5087.500.150.15
MontanaBSky0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
PacificWCC0.170.1731.2531.25-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Iowa St.B120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
SMUAmer0.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
IdahoBSky0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
CornellIvy0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1161.5461.540.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00