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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:106.9
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:193
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-720.00.01%
22-828.40.14%
21-937.30.67%
20-1046.32.00%
19-1157.35.09%
18-1270.19.56%
17-1383.915.42%
16-1499.019.32%
15-15114.418.64%
14-16131.614.12%
13-17149.18.80%
12-18167.34.03%
11-19186.11.63%
10-20205.00.44%
9-21222.40.11%
8-22234.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Yale (111.9)IvyH90-98L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Fullerton (325.8)BWH104-88W100%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH92-58W100%0.0
11-22Long Beach St. (200.9)BWH94-88W100%0.0
11-25Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAN47-86W100%0.0
11-26TCU (48.5)B12N93-80L0%0.0
11-30TCU (48.5)B12A86-71L0%0.0
12-7Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA0-011%-14.4
12-11Nevada (46.2)MWCH0-056%1.8
12-18Western Michigan (219.2)MACH0-087%13.5
12-20Cal Poly (261.7)BWH0-091%15.8
12-22Seattle (265.1)WACA0-082%11.0
1-1Washington St. (227.6)P12H0-087%13.6
1-4Oregon (31.0)P12H0-036%-4.3
1-7Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-088%14.2
1-12California (61.1)P12A0-033%-5.4
1-14Stanford (52.1)P12A0-033%-5.2
1-18Colorado (75.1)P12H0-052%0.6
1-21Utah (94.3)P12H0-058%2.5
1-25Arizona St. (161.2)P12A0-061%3.3
1-29Arizona (29.2)P12A0-022%-9.2
2-1USC (38.7)P12H0-044%-1.8
2-4UCLA (16.9)P12H0-025%-8.2
2-9Colorado (75.1)P12A0-032%-5.7
2-11Utah (94.3)P12A0-038%-3.8
2-16Arizona St. (161.2)P12H0-079%9.6
2-18Arizona (29.2)P12H0-040%-3.0
2-26Washington St. (227.6)P12A0-073%7.3
3-1UCLA (16.9)P12A0-011%-14.4
3-4USC (38.7)P12A0-025%-8.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1229.3026.3048.2849.40-1.01-0.31
Washington St.P120.004.1242.8629.88-0.00-1.66
UCLAP120.404.12100.0086.980.403.05
Arizona St.P120.004.0955.5638.400.00-0.95
ArizonaP120.004.0977.7870.400.001.67
USCP120.004.06100.0077.180.002.21
ColoradoP120.004.0575.0062.760.001.03
UtahP120.004.0080.0058.720.000.70
TCUB1214.293.33100.0058.1614.290.54
Oregon St.P120.002.5125.0024.02-0.00-1.31
CaliforniaP120.002.4987.5064.670.000.73
OregonP120.002.4675.0073.110.001.14
StanfordP120.002.4566.6758.310.000.41
Long Beach St.BW7.141.870.0039.76-7.14-0.38
Cal PolyBW0.001.8742.8642.31-0.00-0.29
Cal St. FullertonBW7.141.7833.3334.85-2.38-0.54
SeattleWAC0.001.7216.6739.67-0.00-0.36
GonzagaWCC0.001.72100.0092.330.001.46
Western MichiganMAC0.001.7216.6736.72-0.00-0.46
NevadaMWC0.001.6977.7872.690.000.77
Northern ArizonaBSky7.141.6712.5020.97-5.36-0.97
Western KentuckyCUSA7.141.6742.8636.20-1.02-0.46
YaleIvy7.141.6733.3362.17-2.380.41
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.350.0033.71-0.00-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.000.290.0031.31-0.00-0.11
UC IrvineBW0.000.2944.4453.29-0.000.02
UNLVMWC2.370.2862.5042.780.59-0.04
UC DavisBW0.400.2650.0045.660.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2625.0043.29-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.2257.1450.730.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.400.2237.5031.15-0.10-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2157.1457.780.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.400.1933.3332.79-0.13-0.07
TexasB120.000.1950.0038.730.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1842.8650.82-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1871.4355.680.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.1742.8633.51-0.00-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.170.0022.30-0.00-0.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1788.8956.710.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.1725.0048.70-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.400.1788.8977.470.310.09
PacificWCC0.510.1742.8645.98-0.07-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.1762.5067.080.000.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1660.0069.260.000.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1671.4365.470.000.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.1542.8656.48-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1542.8658.24-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.400.1575.0069.680.200.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.1550.0064.910.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1450.0053.130.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC2.370.1412.5033.31-1.78-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC2.370.1450.0045.920.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.510.1440.0043.88-0.10-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1466.6766.650.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1457.1443.930.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1471.4360.090.000.03
BaylorB120.000.14100.0076.070.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1475.0071.330.000.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.14100.0089.590.000.11
PrincetonIvy0.000.1220.0060.00-0.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1228.5730.43-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1285.7153.770.000.01
XavierBE0.000.1287.5070.880.000.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0025.31-0.00-0.06
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0074.830.000.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.510.1237.5050.92-0.130.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.72-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.540.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1150.0040.690.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.030.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.010.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1187.5061.660.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
WoffordSC0.000.110.0034.69-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1150.0056.890.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1157.1448.110.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1116.6740.32-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.380.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.220.000.07
New MexicoMWC0.000.1162.5058.130.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0933.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0912.5033.18-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.83-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0076.970.000.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0944.4438.15-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0056.080.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0825.0029.90-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0883.3371.500.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0820.0035.46-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0812.5030.51-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0837.5025.74-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0825.0045.82-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0862.5050.630.000.00
MissouriSEC0.450.0862.5044.840.11-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0043.770.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8643.78-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.72-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.66-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.510.0622.2246.51-0.28-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.510.0688.8978.430.400.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0050.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.98-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
Arkansas St.SB1.020.0675.0066.120.510.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.280.000.01
Illinois St.MVC1.020.0660.0067.820.200.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.900.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.700.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0557.1472.530.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0566.6753.730.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.540.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0562.5053.550.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0577.7865.840.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0560.0058.780.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5075.730.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0557.1444.830.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.49-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0577.7862.010.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0562.5066.500.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0550.0030.320.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.840.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.57-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.510.0342.8660.66-0.070.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0328.5727.38-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.700.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.510.0337.5061.81-0.130.01
PittsburghACC0.510.0375.0048.980.26-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.02
VermontAE0.510.0362.5071.400.130.01
ElonCAA0.000.0362.5054.660.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.07-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.17-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.740.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.400.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.400.0357.1471.170.060.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0342.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.400.0387.5075.690.300.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.400.0387.5081.910.300.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5737.54-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.400.0385.7169.920.280.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.400.0377.7886.650.220.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.450.0357.1464.500.060.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.450.0350.0050.980.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.030.0020.63-0.45-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00