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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:69.1
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:81
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-624.20.05%
23-730.80.43%
22-837.13.24%
21-945.010.37%
20-1054.920.76%
19-1166.827.07%
18-1280.321.80%
17-1394.611.72%
16-14108.53.89%
15-15123.80.63%
14-16143.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina St. (304.1)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Seattle (275.2)WACA48-63W100%0.0
11-23Pacific (225.6)WCCN76-69W100%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (335.6)MWCN78-56W100%0.0
11-28Long Beach St. (77.8)BWN80-70W100%0.0
11-30UTEP (85.8)CUSAN68-65W100%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (28.8)MWCH49-36W100%0.0
12-14Eastern Washington (74.5)BSkyH81-77W100%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (349.3)SWACH86-38W100%0.0
12-20Oklahoma (22.9)B12N69-67W100%0.0
12-22Tulane (169.4)AmerH66-57W100%0.0
12-28Stony Brook (98.7)AEH57-62L0%0.0
1-2California (137.8)P12A81-75L0%0.0
1-4Stanford (29.2)P12A68-60L0%0.0
1-10Washington St. (180.2)P12H77-80L0%0.0
1-15Oregon St. (103.2)P12H56-43W100%0.0
1-18Oregon (74.4)P12H85-77W100%0.0
1-22Colorado (91.3)P12A50-52W100%0.0
1-25Utah (11.4)P12A77-56L0%0.0
1-28Stanford (29.2)P12H74-84L0%0.0
2-1California (137.8)P12H0-078%8.7
2-4Oregon (74.4)P12A0-040%-2.9
2-8Oregon St. (103.2)P12A0-043%-1.8
2-13Arizona (4.9)P12H0-020%-9.2
2-15Arizona St. (110.0)P12H0-057%1.8
2-22Washington St. (180.2)P12A0-070%5.8
2-25UCLA (76.2)P12A0-039%-2.9
2-28USC (178.7)P12A0-063%3.6
3-5Colorado (91.3)P12H0-061%2.9
3-7Utah (11.4)P12H0-023%-8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.4226.2466.6760.458.815.49
Washington St.P123.134.1742.1134.01-0.49-1.33
CaliforniaP122.824.0355.0046.990.28-0.24
Oregon St.P122.714.0368.4262.081.000.97
UtahP122.694.0277.7879.521.492.37
ColoradoP122.634.0057.8954.620.410.37
OregonP122.634.0070.0063.631.051.09
StanfordP125.123.9972.2269.432.281.55
UCLAP120.632.5657.1455.600.090.29
ArizonaP120.682.5690.9188.830.561.99
Arizona St.P120.562.5050.0051.350.000.07
USCP120.502.5045.0039.07-0.05-0.55
San Diego St.MWC2.631.8178.9578.301.521.02
San Jose St.MWC2.641.780.001.55-2.64-1.73
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.631.7575.0076.081.320.91
UTEPCUSA2.561.7568.4271.090.940.74
SeattleWAC2.641.7350.0051.340.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC2.561.720.006.84-2.56-1.49
Long Beach St.BW2.561.7247.3754.42-0.130.15
OklahomaB122.501.6968.4268.610.920.63
PacificWCC2.501.6738.8934.53-0.56-0.52
South Carolina St.MEAC2.501.6730.0033.39-1.00-0.55
Stony BrookAE2.501.6760.0064.800.500.49
TulaneAmer2.501.6763.1654.370.660.15
UNLVMWC0.320.2855.0055.280.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.320.2644.4452.05-0.040.01
BYUWCC0.380.2366.6767.930.130.08
Colorado St.MWC0.320.2385.0081.560.230.14
NevadaMWC0.190.2323.5325.35-0.10-0.11
WyomingMWC0.250.2278.9573.790.150.11
Air ForceMWC0.410.2038.8937.17-0.09-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.320.2042.1137.96-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.260.2023.8126.39-0.14-0.09
TexasB120.310.1970.0067.330.120.07
San FranciscoWCC0.260.1838.1041.77-0.06-0.03
UC DavisBW0.270.1776.4768.620.140.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.1731.5831.12-0.08-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1723.8125.01-0.10-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.130.1795.2494.650.120.15
UC IrvineBW0.190.1755.5658.560.020.03
DePaulBE0.250.1750.0042.550.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.190.1725.0027.87-0.09-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.130.1738.8936.60-0.03-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1510.0015.21-0.10-0.10
PortlandWCC0.200.1550.0049.060.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.1545.0040.47-0.02-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.200.1515.7922.84-0.14-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.1516.6721.98-0.14-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1526.3236.42-0.06-0.04
MontanaBSky0.130.1552.9455.900.010.02
TCUB120.150.1470.0059.730.060.03
Portland St.BSky0.130.1447.0644.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.250.1441.1841.54-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1264.2967.400.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1227.7828.15-0.06-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1238.8939.75-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1228.5736.68-0.05-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1250.0061.990.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.200.1260.0057.750.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.210.1235.2935.77-0.06-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.130.1247.6246.49-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.1268.4269.400.030.04
IdahoBSky0.140.1237.5043.27-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.1257.8955.970.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1175.0073.790.060.05
New MexicoMWC0.060.1165.0063.080.020.03
AuburnSEC0.130.1147.3738.40-0.01-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1157.8959.140.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1144.4449.91-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.130.1185.0077.480.090.06
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1168.4260.870.050.02
HawaiiBW0.060.1165.0059.030.020.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1147.0645.69-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1157.1446.790.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.120.1147.0649.31-0.01-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.0945.0057.12-0.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0925.0037.82-0.07-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.0931.5844.68-0.05-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.0966.6762.680.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.095.2610.51-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.200.0961.1156.540.040.01
George WashingtonA100.150.0976.1969.570.080.03
Weber St.BSky0.140.0938.8943.58-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.140.0923.5330.63-0.07-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0915.7919.24-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.120.0940.0037.05-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.0942.1134.91-0.02-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0916.6725.21-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.0947.0652.46-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0947.3749.63-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.130.0978.9573.600.070.04
VermontAE0.060.0950.0055.830.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0821.0530.43-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0864.7165.450.040.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.0822.2240.62-0.10-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0810.5319.78-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0873.6866.450.060.03
Texas TechB120.120.0852.3840.080.01-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0831.5832.46-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.190.0866.6765.800.060.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0842.8642.93-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0860.0052.340.010.00
SyracuseACC0.120.0866.6758.800.040.01
WisconsinB100.120.0890.0087.310.100.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0625.0031.44-0.04-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0052.570.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0533.18-0.05-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0630.0036.10-0.03-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0680.0074.260.040.03
SMUAmer0.140.0680.0077.800.080.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0623.5328.20-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0665.0067.680.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.069.5215.12-0.05-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.120.0650.0053.500.000.00
HartfordAE0.060.0650.0050.620.000.00
MaineAE0.060.069.5212.21-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0654.5556.920.010.01
MemphisAmer0.130.0665.0061.650.040.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0652.6353.600.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0655.0055.900.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0666.6768.850.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0630.0031.92-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0666.6763.890.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0642.1139.30-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0640.0041.39-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0614.2917.01-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0690.0088.060.050.04
St. John'sBE0.130.0663.1658.070.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0640.0042.36-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0666.6766.030.040.02
BaylorB120.130.0673.6869.390.060.02
DelawareCAA0.130.0620.0022.25-0.08-0.03
DenverSum0.130.0642.8646.32-0.02-0.00
DukeACC0.130.0685.0081.780.090.04
IllinoisB100.060.0661.9060.280.010.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0678.9569.330.000.02
LipscombASun0.060.0638.8941.90-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0073.840.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0665.0063.020.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.5834.29-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0635.2933.06-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0642.8644.91-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0623.5320.64-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.0058.610.010.01
VCUA100.060.0685.0082.110.040.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0685.0075.810.040.03
WoffordSC0.130.0675.0074.950.060.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0531.5830.47-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0545.0049.91-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0563.1658.740.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0523.8125.53-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0357.1454.290.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0336.8439.63-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0390.9185.820.070.02
PurdueB100.080.0361.9058.640.020.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0343.7546.22-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0350.0052.630.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0335.2930.49-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0371.4366.610.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0342.1147.36-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0336.8440.44-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0370.5975.650.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.2932.56-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0352.3854.030.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0360.0063.500.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0327.2731.53-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0333.3331.54-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0058.090.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.030.004.66-0.06-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0323.5324.42-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0373.3372.110.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0340.0038.69-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0363.6468.340.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0341.1844.43-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0340.0038.90-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0357.8958.390.010.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0340.0035.69-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0027.25-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0357.1462.480.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0315.0023.63-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0372.2277.840.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0376.1966.050.030.01
VirginiaACC0.060.03100.0094.030.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0342.8638.97-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0368.4263.700.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0368.4263.930.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0347.3742.60-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.060.0371.4370.720.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0345.0052.68-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0345.4540.60-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0341.1840.94-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0340.0040.94-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0333.3332.70-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0358.3365.180.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0370.0063.500.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0385.0078.450.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0321.0525.57-0.04-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0355.0054.130.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0340.0048.23-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0079.860.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6754.170.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0360.0052.020.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0382.3584.890.040.02
ColgatePat0.000.0338.1043.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0052.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6766.780.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0098.410.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0347.3750.41-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0044.440.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0381.8276.480.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0345.0049.32-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0314.2917.20-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.9576.580.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0340.0043.69-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0373.6865.240.000.01