live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:98.1
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:326
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-519.90.08%
22-626.80.48%
21-733.81.56%
20-844.33.82%
19-956.28.21%
18-1070.312.97%
17-1184.517.08%
16-1299.418.28%
15-13115.515.68%
14-14130.511.50%
13-15147.36.16%
12-16164.72.83%
11-17182.31.00%
10-18202.80.33%
7-21256.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina St. (286.7)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Seattle (260.5)WACA48-63W100%0.0
11-23Pacific (231.9)WCCH76-69W100%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (312.0)MWCN78-56W100%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (17.5)MWCH0-032%-5.5
12-14Eastern Washington (66.6)BSkyH0-062%3.8
12-17Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH0-099%27.6
12-20Oklahoma (21.5)B12N0-025%-8.1
12-22Tulane (234.3)AmerH0-087%13.5
12-28Stony Brook (83.2)AEH0-068%5.6
1-2California (50.3)P12A0-023%-9.0
1-4Stanford (36.9)P12A0-019%-10.3
1-10Washington St. (251.2)P12H0-090%15.6
1-15Oregon St. (212.7)P12H0-079%9.5
1-18Oregon (72.4)P12H0-052%0.7
1-22Colorado (84.2)P12A0-033%-5.2
1-25Utah (28.1)P12A0-017%-11.6
1-28Stanford (36.9)P12H0-040%-3.2
2-1California (50.3)P12H0-044%-1.8
2-4Oregon (72.4)P12A0-029%-6.5
2-8Oregon St. (212.7)P12A0-058%2.3
2-13Arizona (19.0)P12H0-037%-3.9
2-15Arizona St. (106.1)P12H0-060%3.1
2-22Washington St. (251.2)P12A0-076%8.4
2-25UCLA (74.9)P12A0-029%-6.5
2-28USC (224.2)P12A0-070%6.2
3-5Colorado (84.2)P12H0-056%1.9
3-7Utah (28.1)P12H0-036%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1232.2926.30100.0053.9732.292.09
Washington St.P120.004.4525.0023.10-0.00-2.39
CaliforniaP120.004.3380.0070.820.001.80
Oregon St.P120.004.3350.0043.560.00-0.56
UtahP120.004.3375.0073.700.002.05
OregonP120.004.3060.0063.580.001.17
StanfordP120.004.2980.0071.390.001.84
ColoradoP120.004.2975.0060.920.000.94
UCLAP120.002.7266.6757.960.000.43
ArizonaP120.002.72100.0076.670.001.45
Arizona St.P120.002.6960.0053.850.000.21
USCP120.002.6950.0029.730.00-1.09
San Jose St.MWC12.501.910.0018.48-12.50-1.21
San Diego St.MWC0.001.9183.3384.970.001.34
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.8880.0076.200.000.98
SeattleWAC12.501.8533.3347.14-4.17-0.11
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.850.0021.78-0.00-1.04
OklahomaB120.001.8280.0070.380.000.74
PacificWCC12.501.7950.0033.520.00-0.59
South Carolina St.MEAC12.501.790.0038.17-12.50-0.42
Stony BrookAE0.001.7960.0069.920.000.71
TulaneAmer0.001.7966.6740.810.00-0.33
UNLVMWC0.000.3175.0051.700.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.25100.0069.490.000.10
Air ForceMWC0.000.2333.3345.53-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.2250.0067.630.000.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.220.0023.13-0.00-0.12
NevadaMWC0.000.2225.0043.15-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2233.3364.43-0.000.06
San FranciscoWCC2.080.2050.0059.430.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.19100.0088.610.000.15
Colorado St.MWC0.000.19100.0069.610.000.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1950.0025.280.00-0.09
DePaulBE0.000.1866.6725.500.00-0.09
TexasB120.000.18100.0079.050.000.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1725.0037.88-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC1.560.17100.0051.101.560.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.160.0023.57-0.00-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0015.46-0.00-0.11
TCUB120.000.16100.0058.380.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1620.0038.45-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky1.560.1633.3351.33-0.520.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.15100.0057.180.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1533.3337.74-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC1.560.1366.6754.980.520.01
UC DavisBW0.000.13100.0052.620.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1360.0050.240.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0063.05-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1350.0032.470.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1375.0050.750.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1316.6732.00-0.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1380.0063.470.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW1.560.1340.0037.90-0.31-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.1360.0055.000.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1333.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0033.90-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1333.3346.51-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1360.0037.710.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW2.080.1233.3366.19-0.690.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1260.0056.430.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1225.0039.20-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1275.0062.620.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0060.400.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0062.000.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1275.0069.780.000.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0023.83-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0041.21-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1020.0043.38-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0035.47-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0045.170.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0018.96-0.00-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.100.0051.90-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0960.0056.890.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.19-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0052.78-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0933.3363.17-0.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0036.57-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0020.51-0.00-0.06
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6760.700.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3351.25-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0975.0045.180.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.24-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0069.210.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0045.140.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0940.0038.51-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0055.660.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0028.02-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.0950.0064.890.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0950.0046.120.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0920.0037.69-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0059.160.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.060.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.260.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0032.17-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0740.0046.34-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0070.920.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.56-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0720.0042.43-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.66-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2930.86-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3330.52-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.340.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0023.09-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3346.25-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0056.120.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.63-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.85-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0620.0035.95-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0050.480.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.750.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0027.48-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.180.000.04
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.710.000.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0019.84-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.39-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.53-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.320.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0054.55-0.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0053.040.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.390.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.100.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3334.34-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.950.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0087.590.000.04
Western IllinoisSum2.080.0425.0026.73-1.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0450.0048.100.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.240.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum1.560.0350.0050.720.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
Texas St.SB1.560.0366.6748.060.52-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.50-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.54-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.23-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.35-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0056.380.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.32-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0039.34-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.54-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC2.080.03100.0073.332.080.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0071.410.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0052.810.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.86-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.17-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.830.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.60-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0065.930.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0056.410.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.440.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.680.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0074.090.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.340.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0058.41-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.310.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01