Washington

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	88.0
Current RPI:	88
Expected SOS:	44
Current SOS:	44
Current Record:	18-15
Expected Record:	18-15
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	134
Expected OOC SOS:	94

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-15	88.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	85-63	W	100%
11-13	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	62-63	L	0%
11-17	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	N	84-73	W	100%
11-18	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	N	66-77	L	0%
11-24	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	55-73	L	0%
11-28	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	H	66-61	W	100%
12-2	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	74-72	W	100%
12-8	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	73-76	L	0%
12-13	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	74-87	W	100%
12-15	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	75-67	W	100%
12-20	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	75-62	W	100%
12-22	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	67-57	W	100%
12-29	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	61-53	L	0%
1-5	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	63-68	W	100%
1-9	California (54.0)	P12	A	47-62	W	100%
1-12	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	60-65	W	100%
1-16	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	64-54	W	100%
1-19	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	65-74	L	0%
1-23	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	74-66	L	0%
1-26	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	81-76	L	0%
1-31	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	53-57	L	0%
2-2	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	96-92	W	100%
2-7	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	59-57	L	0%
2-10	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	71-60	L	0%
2-13	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	52-65	L	0%
2-16	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	72-62	W	100%
2-20	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	70-52	L	0%
2-23	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	59-68	W	100%
3-3	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	72-68	W	100%
3-6	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	65-57	W	100%
3-9	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	54-61	L	0%
3-13	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	N	64-62	W	100%
3-14	Oregon (48.0)	P12	N	80-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington	P12	26.29	26.29	50.32	50.32	0.17	0.17
Washington St.	P12	5.27	5.27	44.83	44.83	-0.54	-0.54
Oregon	P12	5.25	5.25	74.19	74.19	2.54	2.54
UCLA	P12	3.90	3.90	71.88	71.88	1.71	1.71
Arizona St.	P12	3.78	3.78	67.74	67.74	1.34	1.34
Arizona	P12	3.77	3.77	76.67	76.67	2.01	2.01
Southern California	P12	3.73	3.73	43.33	43.33	-0.50	-0.50
Oregon St.	P12	3.71	3.71	43.33	43.33	-0.49	-0.49
Utah	P12	2.38	2.38	40.00	40.00	-0.48	-0.48
Colorado	P12	2.36	2.36	67.74	67.74	0.84	0.84
Stanford	P12	2.33	2.33	58.06	58.06	0.38	0.38
California	P12	2.26	2.26	66.67	66.67	0.75	0.75
Nevada	MWC	1.68	1.68	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
Cal Poly	BW	1.64	1.64	57.14	57.14	0.23	0.23
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.62	1.62	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Seattle	WAC	1.59	1.59	25.00	25.00	-0.80	-0.80
Colorado St.	MWC	1.59	1.59	73.33	73.33	0.74	0.74
Albany	AE	1.56	1.56	69.70	69.70	0.62	0.62
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.54	1.54	14.29	14.29	-1.10	-1.10
Seton Hall	BE	1.54	1.54	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Connecticut	BE	1.54	1.54	65.52	65.52	0.48	0.48
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.54	1.54	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Ohio St.	B10	1.54	1.54	78.12	78.12	0.86	0.86
St. Louis	A10	1.52	1.52	84.38	84.38	1.04	1.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.29	0.29	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	32.14	32.14	-0.10	-0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.24	0.24	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.19	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
Kansas	B12	0.19	0.19	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Nebraska	B10	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.12	0.12	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Hartford	AE	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.07	0.07	6.90	6.90	-0.06	-0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.04	0.04	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.04	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.04	0.04	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01