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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:39.9
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:220
Current Record:9-0
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-25.80.06%
27-39.40.31%
26-412.31.69%
25-515.94.64%
24-620.19.60%
23-725.715.76%
22-832.218.46%
21-941.019.19%
20-1051.815.06%
19-1164.58.57%
18-1280.44.24%
17-1395.11.73%
16-14108.20.55%
15-15127.90.11%
14-16140.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Seattle (270.8)WACA48-63W100%0.0
11-23Pacific (203.2)WCCH76-69W100%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (327.7)MWCN78-56W100%0.0
11-28Long Beach St. (90.1)BWN80-70W100%0.0
11-30UTEP (62.7)CUSAN68-65W100%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (35.0)MWCH49-36W100%0.0
12-14Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH81-77W100%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (349.5)SWACH86-38W100%0.0
12-20Oklahoma (19.1)B12N0-033%-5.3
12-22Tulane (152.3)AmerH0-089%14.7
12-28Stony Brook (147.2)AEH0-086%12.7
1-2California (56.7)P12A0-040%-2.9
1-4Stanford (74.0)P12A0-044%-1.9
1-10Washington St. (210.3)P12H0-093%17.6
1-15Oregon St. (131.4)P12H0-078%9.2
1-18Oregon (102.2)P12H0-073%7.3
1-22Colorado (66.2)P12A0-040%-2.9
1-25Utah (13.1)P12A0-016%-11.7
1-28Stanford (74.0)P12H0-072%6.9
2-1California (56.7)P12H0-069%5.8
2-4Oregon (102.2)P12A0-045%-1.4
2-8Oregon St. (131.4)P12A0-052%0.5
2-13Arizona (16.5)P12H0-049%-0.2
2-15Arizona St. (98.6)P12H0-073%7.1
2-22Washington St. (210.3)P12A0-077%8.8
2-25UCLA (69.3)P12A0-042%-2.5
2-28USC (189.1)P12A0-073%7.4
3-5Colorado (66.2)P12H0-069%5.9
3-7Utah (13.1)P12H0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1227.8526.25100.0070.3327.8510.67
Washington St.P120.314.1840.0029.87-0.06-1.68
CaliforniaP120.004.0390.0068.160.001.46
Oregon St.P120.404.0377.7856.970.220.56
UtahP120.284.0377.7880.040.152.42
OregonP120.004.0066.6759.300.000.74
StanfordP120.004.0075.0058.680.000.69
ColoradoP120.004.0066.6759.240.000.74
ArizonaP120.282.57100.0081.590.281.62
UCLAP120.282.5772.7357.250.130.37
Arizona St.P120.002.5160.0054.700.000.24
USCP120.002.5160.0036.450.00-0.68
San Diego St.MWC5.831.8177.7875.343.240.92
San Jose St.MWC5.901.780.008.13-5.90-1.49
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.901.7575.0079.892.951.05
UTEPCUSA5.561.7575.0075.262.780.88
SeattleWAC6.171.7342.8648.36-0.88-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC5.561.720.009.24-5.56-1.41
Long Beach St.BW5.831.7244.4451.80-0.650.06
OklahomaB120.001.6977.7867.290.000.59
PacificWCC5.561.6757.1439.650.79-0.35
South Carolina St.MEAC5.561.6722.2230.92-3.09-0.64
Stony BrookAE0.001.6733.3356.19-0.000.21
TulaneAmer0.001.6787.5056.370.000.21
UNLVMWC0.000.2875.0050.750.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.350.2637.5064.43-0.090.07
Colorado St.MWC0.660.23100.0078.050.660.13
BYUWCC0.560.2366.6767.300.190.08
WyomingMWC0.000.2377.7873.370.000.11
NevadaMWC0.620.2311.1125.02-0.49-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.400.2157.1461.670.060.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2030.0029.80-0.00-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.620.2020.0028.20-0.38-0.09
TexasB120.000.1990.0081.860.000.12
San FranciscoWCC0.590.1850.0053.850.000.01
UC DavisBW0.310.1785.7161.020.220.04
DePaulBE0.000.1760.0034.110.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.1736.3638.88-0.08-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1725.0023.43-0.00-0.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.1790.0090.940.000.14
RiceCUSA0.000.1716.6726.28-0.00-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.350.1737.5046.78-0.09-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1742.8643.10-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1510.0018.01-0.00-0.10
PortlandWCC0.310.1566.6748.410.10-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.1550.0040.880.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.150.0028.26-0.00-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.350.1514.2933.32-0.25-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.1510.0030.45-0.22-0.06
MontanaBSky0.350.1525.0052.09-0.170.01
TCUB120.000.14100.0066.180.000.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.1450.0041.830.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.620.1427.2737.85-0.28-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1233.3362.92-0.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.620.1236.3664.92-0.170.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1237.5041.20-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.310.1233.3340.31-0.10-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1220.0038.24-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.310.1275.0058.430.150.02
Ball St.MAC0.400.1228.5736.95-0.17-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1244.4436.35-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.280.1254.5557.300.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1275.0068.680.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.73-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1237.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1255.5650.970.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.280.1177.7869.190.150.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1170.0058.600.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1150.0057.510.000.02
KansasB120.000.1188.8969.390.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.660.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1142.8637.65-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.280.1160.0037.220.06-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1142.8638.75-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.310.0911.1144.62-0.24-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0918.1844.62-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0033.84-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0942.8642.32-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0011.40-0.00-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0928.5757.26-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.930.0962.5054.980.230.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.510.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1828.02-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0928.5742.17-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0971.4348.860.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0032.77-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0920.0034.08-0.17-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.560.0957.1470.590.080.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.0922.2228.69-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.79-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.280.0988.8955.910.220.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0944.4445.59-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0911.1144.04-0.24-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0056.800.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0944.4457.85-0.000.01
XavierBE0.860.0880.0070.960.520.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0844.4448.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.550.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6757.800.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.390.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.310.0670.0071.330.120.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0051.050.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.08-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.620.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4449.65-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8627.08-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.940.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.91-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.500.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.79-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5065.040.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.39-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.00
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.830.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.930.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.240.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0544.4431.58-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6754.660.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.67-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.400.0366.6766.340.130.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.350.0344.4455.75-0.040.00
Notre DameACC0.400.0390.9171.890.320.01
PurdueB100.400.0372.7363.730.180.01
Texas St.SB0.350.0350.0050.330.000.00
MercerSC0.350.0337.5042.45-0.09-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.350.0337.5031.95-0.09-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0012.36-0.28-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.280.0366.6762.620.090.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.91-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.310.0380.0057.630.190.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0325.0033.17-0.15-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.310.0350.0074.000.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.280.03100.0085.310.280.02
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5661.390.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.310.0375.0074.340.150.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.71-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7353.260.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.550.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
PittsburghACC0.280.0366.6752.340.090.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.0366.6777.690.090.02
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.08-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.71-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.870.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.630.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01