Washington

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	69.1
Current RPI:	73
Expected SOS:	82
Current SOS:	80
Current Record:	16-7
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	9-2
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	11.70%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	117
Expected OOC SOS:	62

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	37.4	1.28%
22-8	46.1	8.64%
21-9	56.1	23.43%
20-10	67.5	31.20%
19-11	80.7	24.23%
18-12	94.6	9.20%
17-13	107.9	1.92%
16-14	124.4	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	H	91-74	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	77-71	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	93-63	W	100%	0.0
11-20	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	A	77-64	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Houston Baptist (314.2)	GWC	H	88-65	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	A	76-73	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Marquette (15.5)	BE	N	79-77	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Duke (4.2)	ACC	N	86-80	L	0%	0.0
12-16	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	87-80	W	100%	0.0
12-18	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	H	73-92	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	74-51	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	H	95-80	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Oregon (86.8)	P12	H	76-60	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	87-69	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Utah (272.4)	P12	A	53-57	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Seattle (288.1)	ind	H	91-83	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	H	75-65	W	100%	0.0
1-19	California (42.4)	P12	H	66-69	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	76-63	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	54-60	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	67-69	W	100%	0.0
2-2	UCLA (109.2)	P12	H	71-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Southern California (232.8)	P12	H	69-41	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	0-0		50%	-0.1
2-12	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	0-0		39%	-3.2
2-16	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	0-0		91%	14.4
2-18	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	0-0		54%	1.1
2-25	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	A	0-0		55%	1.4
3-1	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	0-0		71%	6.1
3-3	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	0-0		37%	-3.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington	P12	26.15	26.25	64.52	64.89	7.59	7.82
Washington St.	P12	2.70	4.14	52.38	50.07	0.13	0.01
Southern California	P12	2.71	4.09	26.09	25.87	-1.30	-1.97
Arizona St.	P12	2.71	4.09	31.82	33.34	-0.98	-1.36
Arizona	P12	2.66	4.06	69.57	71.70	1.04	1.76
UCLA	P12	2.65	4.06	57.14	58.60	0.38	0.70
Oregon	P12	2.65	4.01	72.73	67.35	1.21	1.39
Oregon St.	P12	2.65	4.00	66.67	65.56	0.88	1.25
California	P12	2.72	2.48	73.91	73.76	1.30	1.18
Stanford	P12	2.72	2.48	72.73	70.65	1.24	1.03
Utah	P12	2.70	2.48	19.05	15.55	-1.67	-1.71
Colorado	P12	2.65	2.44	65.00	61.26	0.79	0.55
Portland	WCC	2.53	1.90	22.73	22.51	-1.38	-1.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.38	1.79	58.82	60.43	0.42	0.37
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.34	1.79	22.22	23.36	-1.30	-0.95
Nevada	WAC	2.27	1.75	80.00	75.55	1.36	0.90
Georgia St.	CAA	2.27	1.73	69.57	72.10	0.89	0.76
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.27	1.72	38.10	41.19	-0.54	-0.30
St. Louis	A10	2.22	1.70	76.19	76.88	1.16	0.91
Seattle	ind	2.22	1.69	25.00	34.73	-1.11	-0.52
Duke	ACC	2.17	1.67	85.71	82.53	1.55	1.08
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.17	1.67	26.32	29.66	-1.03	-0.68
Marquette	BE	2.17	1.67	78.26	75.18	1.23	0.84
South Dakota St.	Sum	2.17	1.67	72.73	74.61	0.99	0.82
Fresno St.	WAC	0.29	0.32	39.13	44.52	-0.06	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.25	0.29	31.82	33.83	-0.09	-0.10
UC Riverside	BW	0.26	0.27	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.21	0.25	0.00	5.37	-0.21	-0.22
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.25	35.00	35.26	-0.08	-0.07
Idaho	WAC	0.27	0.24	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.23	81.82	81.03	0.16	0.14
Santa Clara	WCC	0.32	0.21	28.57	26.30	-0.14	-0.10
Brigham Young	WCC	0.26	0.21	75.00	76.00	0.13	0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.21	0.20	40.91	44.03	-0.04	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.28	0.19	65.00	66.70	0.08	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.22	0.19	35.00	37.47	-0.06	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.18	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.18	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.22	0.18	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.17	81.82	81.49	0.12	0.11
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.17	85.71	78.05	0.14	0.09
Kansas	B12	0.19	0.17	78.26	78.39	0.11	0.09
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.16	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.16	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.23	0.16	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.14	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.20	0.14	82.61	81.44	0.13	0.09
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.14	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.19	0.14	45.45	41.20	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.13	71.43	73.35	0.07	0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.23	0.13	37.50	38.33	-0.06	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.12	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.10
North Dakota	GWC	0.15	0.12	33.33	41.31	-0.05	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.16	0.12	27.27	26.95	-0.07	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.12	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.12	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.16	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.10	0.06
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.12	70.00	73.28	0.06	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.12	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.12	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.11	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.03
Texas	B12	0.10	0.11	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.11	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.11	13.64	16.14	-0.07	-0.07
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.11	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.10	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.16	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.13	0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.09	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.14	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.09	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.09	40.91	42.96	-0.03	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.09	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.08	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.08	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.08	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.08	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.08	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.06	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.03	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.05	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.05	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.00	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.00	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00