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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:77.2
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:52
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-619.00.01%
24-725.80.16%
23-836.21.17%
22-944.34.39%
21-1053.911.22%
20-1163.620.96%
19-1275.424.89%
18-1389.020.98%
17-14104.611.29%
16-15121.44.07%
15-16139.50.79%
14-17154.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Belmont (82.7)OVCH86-82W100%0.0
11-12Eastern Washington (192.1)BSkyH79-69W100%0.0
11-16Providence (43.7)BEN70-77L0%0.0
11-17Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCN79-103L0%0.0
11-24Seattle (200.1)WACH89-84W100%0.0
11-26UC Davis (106.3)BWH77-70W100%0.0
11-28Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH85-71W100%0.0
12-3Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumH86-73W100%0.0
12-6Kansas (5.9)B12A65-74W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (33.1)WCCH70-97L0%0.0
12-17Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCH80-77W100%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (287.3)MEACH106-55W100%0.0
12-22Montana (98.9)BSkyH66-63W100%0.0
12-29USC (34.7)P12A81-88W100%0.0
12-31UCLA (63.0)P12A74-53L0%0.0
1-6Washington St. (167.1)P12A65-70W100%0.0
1-11California (190.5)P12H66-56W100%0.0
1-13Stanford (89.4)P12H64-73L0%0.0
1-18Utah (70.5)P12A70-62L0%0.0
1-20Colorado (85.4)P12A62-72W100%0.0
1-28Washington St. (167.1)P12H0-073%6.8
2-1Arizona St. (31.9)P12H0-033%-4.9
2-3Arizona (15.5)P12H0-025%-7.6
2-8Oregon (67.0)P12A0-021%-8.9
2-10Oregon St. (145.3)P12A0-040%-2.8
2-15Utah (70.5)P12H0-050%0.0
2-17Colorado (85.4)P12H0-061%3.1
2-22Stanford (89.4)P12A0-035%-4.2
2-24California (190.5)P12A0-062%3.5
3-1Oregon St. (145.3)P12H0-063%3.6
3-3Oregon (67.0)P12H0-041%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.3226.2165.9156.168.373.23
Washington St.P123.024.0652.9444.230.18-0.47
StanfordP122.973.9552.6348.170.16-0.14
CaliforniaP122.823.8938.8932.00-0.63-1.40
Oregon St.P120.323.8957.8950.970.050.08
UtahP122.693.8958.8257.760.470.60
ColoradoP122.693.8763.1656.180.710.48
OregonP120.253.8765.0063.470.081.04
Arizona St.P120.332.4478.9576.440.191.29
ArizonaP120.262.4280.0079.100.161.41
USCP122.832.4275.0070.571.410.99
UCLAP122.832.4163.1660.730.740.52
SeattleWAC2.831.8061.1156.520.630.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.701.7841.1847.68-0.48-0.08
KansasB122.631.7288.8982.402.041.12
Loyola MarymountWCC2.561.7229.4130.19-1.05-0.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.641.7052.9454.320.160.15
MontanaBSky2.561.6975.0075.851.280.88
GonzagaWCC2.571.6780.0082.701.541.09
Kennesaw St.ASun2.641.6717.6525.87-1.71-0.81
BelmontOVC2.631.6775.0077.141.310.91
UC DavisBW2.571.6762.5064.760.640.49
Nebraska OmahaSum2.571.6426.3229.05-1.22-0.69
ProvidenceBE2.561.6468.4259.140.940.30
Virginia TechACC2.501.6166.6756.370.830.21
Portland St.BSky0.340.3058.8263.210.060.08
PacificWCC0.340.2545.0044.46-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.2590.4888.940.270.19
San FranciscoWCC0.330.2550.0048.740.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.140.2440.0043.34-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.2258.8257.140.060.03
UC RiversideBW0.350.2017.6523.89-0.23-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.280.2017.6519.33-0.18-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.200.1923.5328.21-0.10-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1737.5033.78-0.04-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.270.1756.2556.810.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1711.1115.30-0.11-0.12
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1743.7540.93-0.02-0.03
BYUWCC0.140.1780.9576.230.090.09
San DiegoWCC0.130.1663.1657.540.030.02
DenverSum0.190.1633.3336.47-0.06-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1658.8262.830.030.04
OklahomaB120.120.1677.7867.900.070.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1621.0544.26-0.11-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.200.1450.0047.670.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.1416.6724.46-0.14-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.1470.5969.610.080.06
UC IrvineBW0.210.1430.0039.93-0.08-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.200.1429.4134.76-0.08-0.04
PortlandWCC0.190.1427.7827.30-0.09-0.06
IdahoBSky0.140.1464.7166.850.040.05
ButlerBE0.200.1466.6763.070.070.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1472.2272.970.080.06
PepperdineWCC0.120.1410.5318.34-0.09-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.250.1433.3332.96-0.08-0.05
Saint LouisA100.190.1347.3746.91-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.1331.5832.72-0.03-0.05
St. John'sBE0.060.1347.3742.18-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.140.1373.6862.720.060.03
XavierBE0.130.1385.7180.080.090.08
HawaiiBW0.140.1168.7563.960.050.03
South DakotaSum0.190.1173.6872.360.090.05
LipscombASun0.190.1152.9459.360.010.02
DrakeMVC0.190.1155.0049.070.02-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1157.8953.190.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.1129.4133.22-0.03-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.1144.4450.31-0.010.00
UNLVMWC0.140.1173.6865.280.070.03
New MexicoMWC0.130.1145.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1135.2940.48-0.04-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.119.5217.940.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1121.0539.47-0.04-0.02
TCUB120.190.1173.6865.590.090.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.1145.0041.34-0.01-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.1170.0068.220.020.04
CreightonBE0.250.1075.0070.690.120.04
DePaulBE0.060.1042.1134.32-0.01-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.80-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.140.0933.3336.92-0.05-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0930.0032.53-0.05-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0966.6766.010.020.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.0945.0045.02-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.130.0844.4454.89-0.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0883.3384.230.080.06
Texas TechB120.140.0878.9571.810.080.04
DetroitHorz0.190.0821.0525.98-0.11-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0815.7920.92-0.09-0.05
MississippiSEC0.140.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.130.0845.0045.50-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0861.1156.830.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0878.9576.970.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.0877.7869.360.070.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.0852.6343.120.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.0847.6244.03-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.130.0827.7829.84-0.06-0.03
KentuckySEC0.190.0873.6867.950.090.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.0836.8435.55-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0852.6347.390.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.120.0873.6871.550.060.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.190.085.8819.37-0.17-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0823.5328.70-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0880.0075.050.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.0880.9576.520.080.04
TexasB120.130.0863.1657.620.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0868.4263.980.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0894.7490.310.050.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
NJITASun0.000.0638.8942.600.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0611.1117.960.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.12-0.07-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.060.0652.6351.700.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0642.8635.25-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.140.0666.6765.530.050.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0636.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.400.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.0673.6869.610.060.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.06-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.65-0.07-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.760.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.067.1414.82-0.06-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.057.6920.09-0.11-0.03
PittsburghACC0.140.0540.0030.87-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.140.0561.1160.790.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0527.7831.67-0.06-0.02
HowardMEAC0.130.0510.5327.31-0.10-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0555.5656.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0537.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0530.0036.480.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0544.4444.860.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0521.0521.990.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0531.5830.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0550.0051.650.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0533.3334.11-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.690.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0578.9577.360.040.03
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0516.6724.290.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0561.1158.750.000.01
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0568.4255.060.020.01
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.190.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0529.4133.94-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0566.6763.420.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0568.4254.090.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0561.1147.260.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0568.4260.530.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0576.4769.020.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.0572.2274.700.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0568.4257.770.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.180.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0568.4254.090.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0067.890.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0536.8432.79-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0570.0070.630.020.02
SyracuseACC0.130.0568.4261.270.050.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0594.4485.440.060.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0584.2178.170.050.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.470.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0338.8943.43-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0350.0054.850.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.27-0.03-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.070.050.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.770.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.15-0.07-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.520.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0317.6517.230.00-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0375.0070.270.030.01
WisconsinB100.060.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.990.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.210.000.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0378.9572.990.040.01
LehighPat0.060.0338.8944.75-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.640.020.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0370.5975.930.020.01
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.780.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.270.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.380.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0383.3381.410.040.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0330.0033.49-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0338.8946.68-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.690.020.01
UMBCAE0.000.0358.8258.360.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0368.4270.810.020.01