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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:59.4
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:35
Current Record:15-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-720.10.07%
22-825.31.28%
21-932.66.16%
20-1043.217.49%
19-1154.928.85%
18-1266.627.30%
17-1378.714.60%
16-1492.13.84%
15-15105.50.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas (27.9)B12N71-77W100%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (225.9)NECH100-67W100%0.0
11-21Penn (294.7)IvyH104-67W100%0.0
11-25Gonzaga (50.2)WCCN64-80L0%0.0
11-26Texas (27.9)B12N70-82L0%0.0
11-27Charlotte (231.6)CUSAN66-71W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Fullerton (280.8)BWH87-69W100%0.0
12-8TCU (175.8)B12H92-67W100%0.0
12-12Montana (154.0)BSkyH92-62W100%0.0
12-19Oakland (117.7)HorzH83-97L0%0.0
12-22Seattle (278.3)WACH79-68W100%0.0
12-28UC Santa Barbara (127.9)BWH78-83L0%0.0
1-1UCLA (68.7)P12H96-93W100%0.0
1-3USC (20.0)P12H87-85W100%0.0
1-9Washington St. (177.2)P12A95-99W100%0.0
1-14Arizona (28.7)P12A99-67L0%0.0
1-16Arizona St. (83.1)P12A85-89W100%0.0
1-20Colorado (40.5)P12H95-83W100%0.0
1-24Utah (27.5)P12H75-80L0%0.0
1-28UCLA (68.7)P12A84-86W100%0.0
1-30USC (20.0)P12A98-88L0%0.0
2-3Arizona St. (83.1)P12H95-83W100%0.0
2-6Arizona (28.7)P12H0-034%-4.5
2-10Utah (27.5)P12A0-028%-6.3
2-13Colorado (40.5)P12A0-034%-4.6
2-18California (49.2)P12H0-053%0.8
2-20Stanford (80.5)P12H0-070%5.6
2-24Oregon St. (65.1)P12A0-043%-2.0
2-28Oregon (5.8)P12A0-020%-9.2
3-2Washington St. (177.2)P12H0-084%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.5626.2862.2457.696.514.04
Washington St.P123.024.1340.0035.35-0.60-1.21
USCP125.064.0880.9574.693.132.02
Arizona St.P124.904.0857.1453.710.700.30
UCLAP125.054.0861.9057.011.200.57
ArizonaP122.734.0877.2776.831.492.19
ColoradoP122.384.0076.1969.391.251.55
UtahP122.384.0071.4367.311.021.39
TexasB124.653.4270.0062.571.860.86
CaliforniaP120.472.5163.6462.310.130.62
Oregon St.P120.622.5060.0054.480.120.22
StanfordP120.462.4952.6348.370.02-0.08
OregonP120.502.4481.8278.160.321.38
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.531.9236.8447.86-0.67-0.08
GonzagaWCC2.591.8976.1975.271.350.96
Cal St. FullertonBW2.331.7938.8934.11-0.52-0.57
TCUB122.481.7747.6239.10-0.12-0.39
SeattleWAC2.391.7547.3744.52-0.13-0.19
MontanaBSky2.321.7058.8263.340.410.45
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.321.7043.4848.41-0.30-0.05
CharlotteCUSA2.271.6738.1043.59-0.54-0.21
OaklandHorz2.271.6765.2266.220.690.54
PennIvy2.271.6733.3333.94-0.76-0.54
KansasB120.320.2880.9577.010.200.15
Long Beach St.BW0.260.2642.8651.32-0.040.01
Cal PolyBW0.310.2331.5836.17-0.12-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.2330.0028.62-0.13-0.10
OklahomaB120.110.2290.4884.910.090.15
Iowa St.B120.210.2272.7368.840.090.08
Texas TechB120.210.2261.9054.010.050.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.205.2610.18-0.20-0.16
BaylorB120.150.1976.1967.340.080.07
UNLVMWC0.250.1952.3857.440.010.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.1844.4448.53-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.150.1769.5773.040.060.08
Boise St.MWC0.160.1766.6766.030.050.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1659.0955.560.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.300.1678.2680.340.170.10
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1650.0045.740.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.150.1681.8278.720.100.09
UC DavisBW0.180.1536.8434.21-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.180.1533.3339.26-0.06-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1515.7916.40-0.12-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.170.1572.7371.670.080.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.1540.9140.96-0.04-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1542.1142.70-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.160.1437.5036.54-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.220.1457.1457.940.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.210.1459.0958.090.040.02
PacificWCC0.160.1421.0524.60-0.09-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.210.1433.3329.23-0.07-0.06
SMUAmer0.100.1490.4885.540.080.10
Texas A&MSEC0.250.1481.8281.000.160.08
HawaiiBW0.170.1283.3380.130.120.07
UC RiversideBW0.120.1247.8343.93-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1230.0029.98-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.220.1252.3848.880.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1265.0067.520.050.04
YaleIvy0.170.1270.5972.600.070.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.1185.0085.230.040.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1110.0014.87-0.14-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.1125.0029.52-0.11-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.050.1180.9583.030.030.07
New MexicoMWC0.150.1163.6464.080.040.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1131.8232.32-0.06-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1125.0028.19-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1176.1979.640.080.06
KentuckySEC0.200.1172.7369.690.090.04
North CarolinaACC0.200.1186.3680.670.150.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1050.0053.080.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0935.2933.93-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.160.094.557.91-0.15-0.08
TempleAmer0.120.0961.9058.400.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0959.0959.470.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.170.0822.7326.19-0.09-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.0813.6413.79-0.09-0.06
LafayettePat0.170.0823.8125.23-0.09-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.050.0850.0050.040.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0857.1457.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0831.5833.50-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0872.7372.460.070.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0850.0048.760.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.100.0880.9575.610.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0871.4370.810.020.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0860.0057.300.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0827.2730.42-0.07-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.088.709.78-0.08-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.0855.5650.840.020.00
MichiganB100.150.0872.7367.970.070.03
UTSACUSA0.100.0814.2913.98-0.07-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0681.8281.000.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.060.0638.1041.23-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0663.6468.200.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0644.4446.93-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.120.0625.0022.59-0.06-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0630.0034.84-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0615.0015.65-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0635.0035.36-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.070.0629.4129.72-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0668.4265.480.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0643.12-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0638.8942.86-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0668.7573.150.030.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0657.8956.100.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0686.3685.330.050.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0657.1457.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.0681.8278.320.070.03
NavyPat0.070.0665.2265.220.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0652.1754.150.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0647.6257.24-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0641.1840.27-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0676.1976.210.060.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.0650.0048.260.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0642.8637.22-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0672.7369.900.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0660.0061.320.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0673.9170.210.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0610.0015.31-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.050.0647.8343.65-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0533.3333.55-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.0569.5770.030.040.02
BryantNEC0.050.0526.0927.58-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0522.7323.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.100.0560.8759.050.020.01
DavidsonA100.050.0557.8955.420.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0545.0044.39-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4541.98-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.100.0554.5553.030.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0552.3853.800.000.00
FurmanSC0.100.0554.5553.780.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.055.267.23-0.04-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0522.7324.28-0.05-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0550.0050.870.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0557.8961.910.020.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0565.2256.540.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0547.8350.56-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0518.7533.16-0.06-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0561.9062.050.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0536.3630.98-0.01-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0552.1749.340.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0530.0029.47-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0530.0032.46-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0518.7526.10-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0554.5561.940.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0578.2671.960.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.8235.17-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.0540.9143.36-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0518.1822.84-0.06-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0534.7841.60-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0547.6249.34-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0568.7574.720.040.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0573.6870.400.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0565.0068.740.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0559.0962.730.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0581.8276.020.030.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.9063.360.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0545.4542.13-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0554.5555.190.000.01
XavierBE0.100.0590.9184.430.080.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0531.8233.76-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0321.7424.61-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0317.3921.76-0.04-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9060.410.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0368.4271.820.000.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0314.2918.59-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0336.3635.32-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0321.0520.90-0.04-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0381.8277.420.050.02
AkronMAC0.060.0380.9579.160.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0029.29-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0336.3634.96-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0338.1037.49-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0363.6459.930.000.01
VermontAE0.060.0356.5258.380.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1452.310.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0345.0041.83-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0350.0056.530.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0333.3334.18-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.3856.750.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0342.8643.53-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0315.7922.52-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0338.8943.23-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.5253.440.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0360.0056.080.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0353.3355.190.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.670.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.11-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.030.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0331.8234.36-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.750.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0326.0930.34-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.130.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.034.7614.00-0.05-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.960.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0352.3853.670.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0310.5325.36-0.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0375.0073.480.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.710.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0357.1457.580.010.00
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.00-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0340.9140.45-0.00-0.01