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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:146.1
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:47
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:55



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-823.50.02%
22-934.30.03%
21-1047.30.30%
20-1159.20.89%
19-1270.92.22%
18-1386.34.95%
17-14102.49.65%
16-15119.914.75%
15-16137.117.31%
14-17154.917.67%
13-18173.314.54%
12-19190.69.80%
11-20207.14.47%
10-21221.32.41%
9-22237.90.76%
8-23252.10.18%
7-24270.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Belmont (80.1)OVCH86-82W100%0.0
11-12Eastern Washington (169.9)BSkyH79-69W100%0.0
11-16Providence (42.3)BEN70-77L0%0.0
11-17Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCN79-103L0%0.0
11-24Seattle (251.9)WACH0-082%10.8
11-26UC Davis (154.8)BWH0-070%6.4
11-28Kennesaw St. (294.0)ASunH0-089%14.8
12-3Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumH0-080%10.1
12-6Kansas (4.9)B12N0-05%-19.6
12-10Gonzaga (23.2)WCCH0-019%-10.6
12-17Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCH0-084%11.7
12-19Bethune Cookman (339.2)MEACH0-096%20.6
12-22Montana (169.4)BSkyH0-071%6.7
12-29USC (23.2)P12A0-011%-14.8
12-31UCLA (46.1)P12A0-018%-11.1
1-6Washington St. (180.4)P12A0-050%-0.1
1-11California (169.6)P12H0-064%4.5
1-13Stanford (98.1)P12H0-048%-0.6
1-18Utah (45.4)P12A0-017%-11.5
1-20Colorado (94.8)P12A0-032%-5.7
1-28Washington St. (180.4)P12H0-069%5.9
2-1Arizona St. (66.7)P12H0-036%-4.2
2-3Arizona (10.4)P12H0-014%-12.8
2-8Oregon (35.0)P12A0-012%-14.2
2-10Oregon St. (150.6)P12A0-042%-2.6
2-15Utah (45.4)P12H0-032%-5.5
2-17Colorado (94.8)P12H0-051%0.3
2-22Stanford (98.1)P12A0-029%-6.6
2-24California (169.6)P12A0-045%-1.5
3-1Oregon St. (150.6)P12H0-061%3.4
3-3Oregon (35.0)P12H0-025%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1231.7726.2737.5039.13-7.94-5.71
Washington St.P120.004.10100.0041.860.00-0.67
StanfordP122.083.9875.0049.011.04-0.08
CaliforniaP120.003.9366.6739.790.00-0.80
Oregon St.P120.003.9366.6741.780.00-0.65
UtahP120.003.93100.0066.540.001.30
ColoradoP120.003.90100.0052.420.000.19
OregonP120.003.90100.0075.790.002.01
UCLAP120.002.49100.0064.310.000.71
Arizona St.P120.002.48100.0062.740.000.63
ArizonaP120.002.46100.0083.630.001.65
USCP120.002.46100.0072.630.001.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky12.501.7850.0053.470.000.12
SeattleWAC0.001.7833.3351.380.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.7350.0035.410.00-0.50
KansasB120.001.73100.0082.510.001.12
MontanaBSky0.001.7250.0061.290.000.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.700.0036.560.00-0.46
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.670.0032.170.00-0.60
GonzagaWCC0.001.67100.0086.360.001.21
UC DavisBW0.001.6766.6758.470.000.28
ProvidenceBE12.501.6466.6763.394.170.44
BelmontOVC12.501.64100.0074.0312.500.79
Nebraska OmahaSum0.001.640.0036.340.00-0.45
Virginia TechACC12.501.6166.6760.684.170.34
PacificWCC0.000.260.0033.520.00-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2666.6756.400.000.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.26100.0048.130.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2333.3338.880.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.2033.3331.840.00-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.200.0040.830.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2050.0051.070.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.2033.3338.050.00-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.20100.0088.360.000.15
Idaho St.BSky0.000.170.0028.170.00-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1733.3327.100.00-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.170.0035.130.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.1766.6767.320.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.170.0024.440.00-0.09
DenverSum0.000.170.0038.100.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.17100.0052.950.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0050.360.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.150.0033.930.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.1433.3350.350.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.1450.0060.380.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1433.3353.300.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.140.0029.710.00-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.1466.6746.830.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.140.0042.340.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.140.0031.910.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.000.1475.0052.360.000.01
Saint LouisA103.120.1466.6753.391.040.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1466.6761.500.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0035.610.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.14100.0062.930.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.14100.0054.590.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.12100.0053.460.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1233.3350.220.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.110.0042.670.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.1133.3349.220.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.1166.6767.630.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.1150.0035.740.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1133.3353.520.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0033.850.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1150.0039.640.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1150.0050.570.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1150.0052.380.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1150.0068.280.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1166.6742.170.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0022.840.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1150.0062.630.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0046.410.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.11100.0060.070.000.02
TCUB120.000.11100.0061.150.000.02
XavierBE0.000.11100.0078.990.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0067.460.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0060.430.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.0933.3333.620.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0023.260.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0057.360.000.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.090.0032.200.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0050.190.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.08100.0066.490.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.08100.0053.790.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.08100.0056.360.000.01
DetroitHorz1.560.080.0029.29-1.56-0.03
VanderbiltSEC1.560.0866.6749.990.52-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.08100.0062.630.000.02
IowaB100.000.08100.0058.250.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0028.770.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.08100.0078.160.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.08100.0071.010.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0066.990.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.080.0057.520.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0082.960.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0833.3336.610.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd3.120.080.0038.96-3.12-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0875.0071.830.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0065.140.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.02
UNLVMWC2.080.06100.0064.722.080.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.06100.0044.740.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0650.0060.060.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0533.3334.560.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0034.040.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0566.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0054.680.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0533.3341.010.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0533.3329.980.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0061.110.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0575.0045.290.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0533.3331.290.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.05100.0083.580.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0550.0038.730.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0550.0050.870.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.05100.0074.500.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0059.540.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.05100.0067.950.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.05100.0062.240.000.01
TexasB120.000.05100.0063.830.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0074.140.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0566.6771.200.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0058.070.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.910.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0325.0054.930.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.560.0366.6768.320.520.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
MinnesotaB101.560.03100.0071.701.560.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.030.0047.400.00-0.00
The CitadelSC1.560.0333.3330.46-0.52-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01