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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Washington

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:87
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15126.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-21Seattle (280.0)WACA48-63W100%0.0
11-23Pacific (241.0)WCCN76-69W100%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (336.0)MWCN78-56W100%0.0
11-28Long Beach St. (111.0)BWN80-70W100%0.0
11-30UTEP (78.0)CUSAN68-65W100%0.0
12-7San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH49-36W100%0.0
12-14Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH81-77W100%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH86-38W100%0.0
12-20Oklahoma (18.0)B12N69-67W100%0.0
12-22Tulane (214.0)AmerH66-57W100%0.0
12-28Stony Brook (107.0)AEH57-62L0%0.0
1-2California (95.0)P12A81-75L0%0.0
1-4Stanford (59.0)P12A68-60L0%0.0
1-10Washington St. (169.0)P12H77-80L0%0.0
1-15Oregon St. (133.0)P12H56-43W100%0.0
1-18Oregon (27.0)P12H85-77W100%0.0
1-22Colorado (116.0)P12A50-52W100%0.0
1-25Utah (20.0)P12A77-56L0%0.0
1-28Stanford (59.0)P12H74-84L0%0.0
2-1California (95.0)P12H88-90L0%0.0
2-4Oregon (27.0)P12A78-74L0%0.0
2-8Oregon St. (133.0)P12A64-50L0%0.0
2-13Arizona (5.0)P12H62-86L0%0.0
2-15Arizona St. (102.0)P12H68-78L0%0.0
2-22Washington St. (169.0)P12A84-87W100%0.0
2-25UCLA (48.0)P12A88-66L0%0.0
2-28USC (207.0)P12A70-55L0%0.0
3-5Colorado (116.0)P12H47-64L0%0.0
3-7Utah (20.0)P12H77-68W100%0.0
3-11Stanford (59.0)P12N69-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WashingtonP1226.2626.2648.2848.28-0.91-0.91
StanfordP125.495.4955.1755.170.570.57
Washington St.P124.094.0941.3841.38-0.70-0.70
UtahP124.004.0075.8675.862.072.07
OregonP123.993.9974.1974.191.931.93
CaliforniaP123.993.9951.6151.610.130.13
ColoradoP123.963.9646.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Oregon St.P123.933.9353.5753.570.280.28
ArizonaP122.602.6090.9190.912.122.12
UCLAP122.522.5259.3859.380.470.47
USCP122.472.4735.4835.48-0.72-0.72
Arizona St.P122.452.4551.6151.610.080.08
San Diego St.MWC1.741.7478.1278.120.980.98
San Jose St.MWC1.721.720.000.00-1.72-1.72
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.691.6976.6776.670.900.90
UTEPCUSA1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
SeattleWAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC1.671.670.000.00-1.67-1.67
Long Beach St.BW1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
OklahomaB121.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
PacificWCC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
South Carolina St.MEAC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Stony BrookAE1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
TulaneAmer1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.310.3153.1253.120.020.02
BYUWCC0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2481.2581.250.150.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
WyomingMWC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
NevadaMWC0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
TexasB120.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
DePaulBE0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
UC DavisBW0.160.1679.3179.310.090.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
RiceCUSA0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
PortlandWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00