Butler

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	41.0
Current RPI:	41
Expected SOS:	21
Current SOS:	21
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	56
Expected OOC SOS:	121

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	41.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	82-64	W	100%
11-12	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	85-75	W	100%
11-15	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	79-65	L	0%
11-18	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	82-65	W	100%
11-23	Texas (51.0)	B12	N	61-48	L	0%
11-24	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	N	69-71	W	100%
11-26	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	N	66-67	W	100%
12-2	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	75-45	W	100%
12-5	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	81-69	W	100%
12-9	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	95-67	W	100%
12-16	Purdue (9.0)	B10	N	67-82	L	0%
12-19	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	85-69	W	100%
12-21	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	107-46	W	100%
12-27	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	89-91	W	100%
12-30	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	101-93	W	100%
1-2	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	86-79	L	0%
1-6	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	87-90	L	0%
1-9	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	85-74	L	0%
1-12	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	94-83	W	100%
1-15	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	70-60	L	0%
1-20	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	67-79	W	100%
1-27	St. John's (92.0)	BE	H	70-45	W	100%
1-31	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	72-92	W	100%
2-3	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	80-57	W	100%
2-6	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	93-98	L	0%
2-10	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	86-75	L	0%
2-13	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	83-87	L	0%
2-17	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	69-54	W	100%
2-20	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	93-70	W	100%
2-28	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	75-68	L	0%
3-3	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	77-70	L	0%
3-8	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	N	74-75	W	100%
3-9	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	87-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Butler	BE	26.41	26.41	57.78	57.78	4.11	4.11
Villanova	BE	5.45	5.45	90.32	90.32	4.39	4.39
Seton Hall	BE	5.35	5.35	65.52	65.52	1.66	1.66
Providence	BE	4.07	4.07	62.50	62.50	1.02	1.02
Marquette	BE	4.02	4.02	63.33	63.33	1.07	1.07
Xavier	BE	4.00	4.00	83.87	83.87	2.71	2.71
St. John's	BE	3.97	3.97	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
DePaul	BE	3.95	3.95	37.93	37.93	-0.95	-0.95
Creighton	BE	3.92	3.92	65.52	65.52	1.22	1.22
Georgetown	BE	3.92	3.92	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	1.64	1.64	81.82	81.82	1.04	1.04
Maryland	B10	1.58	1.58	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.56	1.56	20.69	20.69	-0.92	-0.92
Ohio St.	B10	1.56	1.56	77.42	77.42	0.86	0.86
Morehead St.	OVC	1.56	1.56	23.08	23.08	-0.84	-0.84
Saint Louis	A10	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	1.52	1.52	70.00	70.00	0.61	0.61
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.52	1.52	29.63	29.63	-0.62	-0.62
Portland St.	BSky	1.52	1.52	58.62	58.62	0.26	0.26
Princeton	Ivy	1.52	1.52	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Texas	B12	1.52	1.52	56.25	56.25	0.19	0.19
Utah	P12	1.52	1.52	65.52	65.52	0.47	0.47
Western Illinois	Sum	1.52	1.52	34.78	34.78	-0.46	-0.46
Wisconsin	B10	0.21	0.21	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.21	0.21	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
VCU	A10	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	87.88	87.88	0.11	0.11
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	26.92	26.92	-0.06	-0.06
Penn	Ivy	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.04	0.04	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.04	0.04	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00