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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:150.0
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:89
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:99
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17150.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Lamar (344.0)SlndH89-58W100%0.0
11-16Princeton (122.0)IvyH70-67W100%0.0
11-19Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH85-77W100%0.0
11-23Ball St. (309.0)MACA58-59W100%0.0
11-28Washington St. (224.0)P12N69-76W100%0.0
11-29Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N67-69L0%0.0
12-1LSU (83.0)SECN70-68L0%0.0
12-7North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH79-64W100%0.0
12-14Purdue (145.0)B10N70-76W100%0.0
12-21Evansville (214.0)MVCA59-68W100%0.0
12-28NJIT (308.0)indH66-48W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (5.0)BEH73-76L0%0.0
1-4Xavier (47.0)BEA79-68L0%0.0
1-9DePaul (154.0)BEH94-99L0%0.0
1-11Georgetown (69.0)BEH67-70L0%0.0
1-14Creighton (10.0)BEA88-60L0%0.0
1-18Marquette (92.0)BEH69-57W100%0.0
1-21Providence (40.0)BEA65-56L0%0.0
1-25St. John's (67.0)BEH52-69L0%0.0
1-29Seton Hall (128.0)BEA57-64W100%0.0
2-4Marquette (92.0)BEA69-62L0%0.0
2-8Georgetown (69.0)BEA71-63L0%0.0
2-11Xavier (47.0)BEH50-64L0%0.0
2-13Creighton (10.0)BEH63-68L0%0.0
2-18St. John's (67.0)BEA77-52L0%0.0
2-23Providence (40.0)BEH81-87L0%0.0
2-26Villanova (5.0)BEA67-48L0%0.0
3-6DePaul (154.0)BEA46-79W100%0.0
3-8Seton Hall (128.0)BEH71-54W100%0.0
3-12Seton Hall (128.0)BEN51-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.3526.3540.9740.97-4.76-4.76
Seton HallBE5.965.9651.6151.610.190.19
ProvidenceBE4.414.4165.6265.621.381.38
CreightonBE4.364.3677.4277.422.392.39
XavierBE4.334.3360.0060.000.870.87
DePaulBE4.314.3135.4835.48-1.25-1.25
MarquetteBE4.284.2853.3353.330.290.29
VillanovaBE4.274.2786.6786.673.133.13
St. John'sBE4.254.2560.0060.000.850.85
GeorgetownBE4.254.2551.7251.720.150.15
VanderbiltSEC1.771.7750.0050.000.000.00
NJITind1.741.7437.5037.50-0.44-0.44
Washington St.P121.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
LSUSEC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
PurdueB101.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
EvansvilleMVC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
LamarSlnd1.691.6911.1111.11-1.32-1.32
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
North DakotaBSky1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy1.671.6773.0873.080.770.77
LafayettePat0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
WisconsinB100.180.1878.7978.790.110.11
KansasB120.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Arizona St.P120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
PennIvy0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Penn St.B100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
AlabamaSEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
TexasB120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
MaineAE0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01