Butler

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	143.2
Current RPI:	150
Expected SOS:	125
Current SOS:	118
Current Record:	12-12
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	3.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	108
Expected OOC SOS:	24

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	105.2	0.91%
17-13	117.6	9.30%
16-14	130.8	29.58%
15-15	146.0	36.55%
14-16	162.7	19.50%
13-17	179.9	3.91%
12-18	193.6	0.24%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	A	80-77	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	57-46	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Louisville (25.3)	BE	H	53-69	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	H	57-42	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	68-66	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	75-59	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	71-77	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Xavier (55.8)	A10	H	61-73	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	A	58-55	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Purdue (65.0)	B10	N	67-65	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	A	71-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Stanford (89.9)	P12	A	66-71	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	53-49	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	54-50	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	A	62-63	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	76-65	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	69-76	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	71-55	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	49-57	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	57-63	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	53-42	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	80-68	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	64-53	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	H	61-65	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-11	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	A	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-14	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	0-0		88%	12.9
2-18	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	H	0-0		58%	2.1
2-21	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	0-0		84%	10.7
2-24	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	A	0-0		35%	-4.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Butler	Horz	26.50	26.40	49.09	50.15	-0.48	0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.93	4.30	31.58	31.81	-1.08	-1.56
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.82	4.30	33.33	38.53	-1.61	-0.99
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.76	4.28	80.95	79.64	1.71	2.54
Wright St.	Horz	4.85	4.28	45.45	43.51	-0.44	-0.56
Detroit	Horz	4.84	4.27	42.86	45.26	-0.69	-0.41
Valparaiso	Horz	3.03	4.27	63.64	62.20	0.83	1.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.90	4.27	57.14	58.30	0.70	0.71
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.88	4.27	20.00	22.47	-1.73	-2.35
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.84	4.27	52.63	53.38	0.15	0.29
Indiana	B10	2.32	1.84	73.91	74.97	1.11	0.92
Indiana St.	MVC	0.25	1.82	56.52	54.65	0.03	0.17
Evansville	MVC	2.18	1.81	42.86	41.94	-0.31	-0.29
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.22	1.75	36.36	40.16	-0.61	-0.34
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.22	1.75	55.00	59.93	0.22	0.35
Chattanooga	SC	2.22	1.75	28.57	36.31	-0.95	-0.48
Purdue	B10	2.17	1.75	68.18	62.60	0.79	0.44
Xavier	A10	2.18	1.72	63.64	62.49	0.59	0.43
Ball St.	MAC	2.08	1.70	52.63	55.84	0.11	0.20
Gonzaga	WCC	2.13	1.69	80.95	80.83	1.32	1.04
Louisville	BE	2.08	1.67	77.27	71.74	1.14	0.72
Stanford	P12	2.08	1.67	72.73	70.65	0.95	0.69
Toledo	MAC	0.25	0.30	38.10	40.81	-0.06	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.29	0.26	5.26	7.30	-0.26	-0.22
Akron	MAC	0.29	0.26	68.18	67.91	0.10	0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.33	0.23	40.91	42.96	-0.06	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.21	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.33	0.20	75.00	73.97	0.17	0.10
IUPUI	Sum	0.29	0.20	34.78	35.50	-0.09	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.23	0.19	76.19	72.91	0.12	0.09
Ohio St.	B10	0.22	0.19	86.96	85.46	0.16	0.14
Central Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.18	28.57	34.20	-0.08	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.18	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.09
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.17	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.17	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.19	0.17	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.17	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.17	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.15	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.15	59.09	56.35	0.04	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.24	0.15	79.17	75.98	0.14	0.08
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.14	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.23	0.14	30.00	34.15	-0.09	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.23	0.14	65.22	62.65	0.07	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.04
Samford	SC	0.10	0.12	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.19	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.12	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.12	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.12	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.14	0.12	40.00	41.30	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.12	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.12	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.11	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.19	0.11	10.00	14.93	-0.15	-0.08
Ohio	MAC	0.18	0.11	81.82	77.20	0.12	0.06
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.11	35.00	35.31	-0.04	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.11	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.11	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.03	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.11	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.11	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.09	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.07
Furman	SC	0.05	0.09	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.06	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.06	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.09	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.08	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.08	31.82	32.75	-0.05	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.08	38.89	43.93	-0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.08	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.08	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.12	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.08	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.05	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.04	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.00	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.00	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.03	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.09	-0.05
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.03	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.05	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.05	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.05	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	75.06	0.02	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.05	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.00	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.00	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.00	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.00	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.00	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.02	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01