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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:81.7
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:290
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-34.00.01%
25-412.00.03%
24-514.50.24%
23-619.70.74%
22-725.02.22%
21-833.45.00%
20-943.29.13%
19-1055.513.72%
18-1168.816.68%
17-1284.217.14%
16-13100.914.85%
15-14118.110.21%
14-15136.35.81%
13-16155.12.84%
12-17174.61.02%
11-18196.30.26%
10-19212.00.05%
9-20230.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Maine (337.8)AEH99-57W100%0.0
11-18Chattanooga (240.3)SCH70-48W100%0.0
11-22Loyola MD (268.9)PatH80-39W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (15.9)ACCN0-026%-7.8
12-3Indiana St. (174.5)MVCA0-067%5.3
12-6Northwestern (172.6)B10H0-084%11.7
12-8Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunH0-098%24.6
12-14Tennessee (172.1)SECA0-059%2.7
12-20Indiana (86.8)B10N0-048%-0.5
12-22Tennessee Martin (311.7)OVCH0-097%22.7
12-28Belmont (82.5)OVCH0-070%6.2
12-31Villanova (38.9)BEA0-025%-8.0
1-3St. John's (110.4)BEA0-046%-1.3
1-6Providence (20.8)BEH0-047%-1.0
1-10Xavier (9.8)BEH0-036%-4.4
1-13Seton Hall (43.6)BEA0-033%-5.2
1-17Georgetown (46.7)BEA0-034%-5.0
1-21Creighton (76.2)BEH0-063%4.1
1-25Seton Hall (43.6)BEH0-056%2.0
1-31Marquette (183.7)BEA0-063%4.0
2-3St. John's (110.4)BEH0-069%5.9
2-7DePaul (180.9)BEH0-084%11.8
2-14Villanova (38.9)BEH0-047%-0.8
2-16Creighton (76.2)BEA0-040%-3.1
2-21Xavier (9.8)BEA0-017%-11.5
2-25Marquette (183.7)BEH0-083%11.2
2-28DePaul (180.9)BEA0-065%4.7
3-3Georgetown (46.7)BEH0-057%2.2
3-7Providence (20.8)BEA0-025%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE31.9426.39100.0057.4531.943.93
Seton HallBE0.004.43100.0065.800.001.40
MarquetteBE0.004.4250.0035.800.00-1.26
GeorgetownBE0.004.41100.0062.340.001.09
ProvidenceBE0.004.40100.0071.650.001.91
CreightonBE0.004.40100.0060.960.000.96
VillanovaBE0.004.40100.0074.070.002.12
DePaulBE0.004.39100.0037.070.00-1.14
St. John'sBE0.004.39100.0052.620.000.23
XavierBE0.004.39100.0080.730.002.70
IndianaB100.001.8280.0058.170.000.30
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.8250.0033.340.00-0.61
MaineAE16.671.780.0018.34-16.67-1.13
BelmontOVC0.001.7675.0073.530.000.83
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7520.0026.64-0.00-0.82
ChattanoogaSC16.671.750.0048.62-16.67-0.05
NorthwesternB100.001.75100.0042.330.00-0.27
Indiana St.MVC0.001.7275.0047.920.00-0.07
Loyola MDPat16.671.7266.6733.195.56-0.58
North CarolinaACC0.001.72100.0070.680.000.71
TennesseeSEC0.001.7250.0041.600.00-0.29
NJITind2.080.2420.0027.91-1.25-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2150.0066.020.000.07
SyracuseACC0.000.2175.0065.950.000.07
IllinoisB100.000.20100.0065.880.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.180.0037.06-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1833.3352.75-0.000.01
WisconsinB102.780.18100.0084.622.780.12
LehighPat0.000.180.0033.90-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.18100.0073.810.000.08
Tennessee TechOVC2.780.1666.6745.370.93-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1533.3368.63-0.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0027.43-0.00-0.07
LipscombASun0.000.150.0043.29-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1533.3339.78-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.15100.0051.910.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1566.6752.810.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.1433.3365.20-0.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1466.6735.400.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.130.0033.26-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0042.83-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0025.30-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1220.0034.54-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0028.12-0.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1275.0056.780.000.02
VCUA100.000.1275.0067.590.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.110.000.08
DukeACC0.000.12100.0085.500.000.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0074.040.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1225.0052.91-0.000.01
UMBCAE2.080.120.0038.08-2.08-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1220.0035.82-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0022.57-0.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6774.460.000.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0071.470.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0087.980.000.09
MinnesotaB100.000.1266.6762.260.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.1220.0037.46-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1233.3364.13-0.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.120.0029.07-0.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1240.0038.53-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.1220.0033.06-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1260.0064.030.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1175.0073.300.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6768.660.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0032.95-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0933.3343.01-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0060.950.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.090.0033.20-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0053.69-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0966.6757.950.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.09100.0063.550.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0940.0039.62-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0975.0058.190.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0950.0034.020.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0043.080.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0060.870.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0916.6730.01-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0066.400.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0045.75-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0043.380.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0055.660.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0044.98-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0081.370.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0933.3340.10-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0069.16-0.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0037.880.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0078.600.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0072.950.000.04
MichiganB100.000.09100.0070.020.000.03
MarylandB100.000.08100.0066.670.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0875.0062.270.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3350.07-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.84-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0650.0063.110.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0059.570.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0675.0056.870.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.590.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3322.95-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.97-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0039.25-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.290.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.420.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.400.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.390.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.410.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.39-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0071.240.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.01-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.60-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0026.64-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0050.840.000.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3337.04-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0633.3354.64-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6757.340.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.57-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3342.50-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.920.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3360.92-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.760.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0625.0038.68-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6756.740.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0038.810.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0024.54-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.470.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0064.010.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0064.540.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.46-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.20-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0625.0057.73-0.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.400.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0065.66-0.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.060.0033.27-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.290.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.560.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.640.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.52-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.56-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC2.080.06100.0053.172.080.00
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.47-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.570.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0021.40-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.52-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0054.280.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0042.95-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6738.720.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0024.67-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.85-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6751.260.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0016.93-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.0680.0043.930.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0061.930.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0040.87-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0039.30-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.27-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.70-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6764.880.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0375.0057.780.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.630.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3340.57-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6765.570.000.01
CornellIvy2.080.0333.3337.47-0.69-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0031.81-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.130.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6766.090.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3360.10-0.000.01
Texas TechB122.080.0366.6745.370.69-0.00
ValparaisoHorz2.080.0375.0055.491.040.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0045.520.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6746.440.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.36-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.93-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.220.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0074.330.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0050.880.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.80-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.360.000.01