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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:57.0
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:73
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1057.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14The Citadel (322.0)SCH144-71W100%0.0
11-19Missouri St. (235.0)MVCN59-93W100%0.0
11-20Temple (60.0)AmerN74-69W100%0.0
11-22Miami FL (9.0)ACCN85-75L0%0.0
11-28SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH89-73W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA76-78W100%0.0
12-5Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH85-71W100%0.0
12-7VMI (316.0)SCH93-66W100%0.0
12-12Tennessee (143.0)SECH94-86W100%0.0
12-19Purdue (15.0)B10N68-74W100%0.0
12-22Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH88-52W100%0.0
12-28IUPUI (189.0)SumH92-54W100%0.0
12-31Providence (40.0)BEH73-81L0%0.0
1-2Xavier (7.0)BEA88-69L0%0.0
1-5DePaul (198.0)BEA72-77W100%0.0
1-10Villanova (4.0)BEH55-60L0%0.0
1-16St. John's (246.0)BEH78-58W100%0.0
1-19Providence (40.0)BEA71-68L0%0.0
1-23Creighton (100.0)BEA72-64L0%0.0
1-27DePaul (198.0)BEH67-53W100%0.0
1-30Marquette (110.0)BEA75-69L0%0.0
2-2Georgetown (106.0)BEH87-76W100%0.0
2-6St. John's (246.0)BEA56-89W100%0.0
2-10Seton Hall (19.0)BEA75-81W100%0.0
2-13Xavier (7.0)BEH57-74L0%0.0
2-16Creighton (100.0)BEH88-75W100%0.0
2-20Villanova (4.0)BEA77-67L0%0.0
2-27Georgetown (106.0)BEA87-90W100%0.0
3-2Seton Hall (19.0)BEH85-78W100%0.0
3-5Marquette (110.0)BEH95-74W100%0.0
3-10Providence (40.0)BEN74-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.3326.3365.9365.938.398.39
ProvidenceBE5.685.6866.6766.671.891.89
VillanovaBE4.274.2784.3884.382.942.94
Seton HallBE4.224.2280.6580.652.592.59
MarquetteBE4.204.2061.2961.290.950.95
XavierBE4.194.1983.3383.332.792.79
GeorgetownBE4.174.1748.3948.39-0.13-0.13
CreightonBE4.144.1456.6756.670.550.55
DePaulBE4.124.1231.0331.03-1.56-1.56
St. John'sBE4.124.1224.1424.14-2.13-2.13
IUPUISum1.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
CincinnatiAmer1.711.7170.9770.970.720.72
TempleAmer1.711.7167.7467.740.610.61
Indiana St.MVC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Missouri St.MVC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
The CitadelSC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.84-0.84
VMISC1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
PurdueB101.641.6478.7978.790.940.94
Southern UtahBSky1.641.6414.8114.81-1.15-1.15
Miami FLACC1.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
TennesseeSEC1.611.6145.4545.45-0.15-0.15
EvansvilleMVC0.230.2372.7372.730.100.10
NebraskaB100.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
DrakeMVC0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
RutgersB100.180.1819.3519.35-0.11-0.11
South FloridaAmer0.170.1724.2424.24-0.09-0.09
WisconsinB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
TulsaAmer0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
George WashingtonA100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MemphisAmer0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
SyracuseACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
NJITASun0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1029.1729.17-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
LSUSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
CampbellBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PennIvy0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01