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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:30
Current Record:21-9
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:15.65%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-923.648.19%
21-1028.251.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Maine (340.0)AEH99-57W100%0.0
11-18Chattanooga (102.3)SCH70-48W100%0.0
11-22Loyola MD (268.8)PatH80-39W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (13.7)ACCN66-74W100%0.0
11-27Oklahoma (17.8)B12N59-46L0%0.0
11-28Georgetown (20.1)BEN58-64W100%0.0
12-3Indiana St. (174.7)MVCA54-77W100%0.0
12-6Northwestern (113.4)B10H65-56W100%0.0
12-8Kennesaw St. (318.5)ASunH93-51W100%0.0
12-14Tennessee (98.1)SECA67-55L0%0.0
12-20Indiana (57.0)B10N82-73L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee Martin (181.0)OVCH64-37W100%0.0
12-28Belmont (137.7)OVCH67-56W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (4.0)BEA67-55L0%0.0
1-3St. John's (34.1)BEA69-73W100%0.0
1-6Providence (20.2)BEH62-66L0%0.0
1-10Xavier (41.5)BEH88-76W100%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (82.0)BEA75-79W100%0.0
1-17Georgetown (20.1)BEA61-59L0%0.0
1-21Creighton (136.6)BEH64-61W100%0.0
1-25Seton Hall (82.0)BEH77-57W100%0.0
1-31Marquette (163.6)BEA68-72W100%0.0
2-3St. John's (34.1)BEH85-62W100%0.0
2-7DePaul (177.1)BEH83-73W100%0.0
2-14Villanova (4.0)BEH65-68L0%0.0
2-16Creighton (136.6)BEA56-58W100%0.0
2-21Xavier (41.5)BEA73-56L0%0.0
2-25Marquette (163.6)BEH73-52W100%0.0
2-28DePaul (177.1)BEA53-67W100%0.0
3-3Georgetown (20.1)BEH54-60L0%0.0
3-7Providence (20.2)BEA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.4326.4267.9167.959.479.48
GeorgetownBE5.825.7168.0068.602.092.12
MarquetteBE4.244.1840.7441.84-0.79-0.68
CreightonBE4.224.1646.4345.92-0.30-0.34
Seton HallBE4.184.1559.2657.730.770.64
DePaulBE4.194.1342.8642.36-0.60-0.63
ProvidenceBE2.634.1368.9768.971.001.57
VillanovaBE4.194.1392.8692.673.593.53
XavierBE4.194.1360.7160.980.900.91
St. John'sBE4.194.1374.0771.882.021.81
IndianaB101.781.7262.0761.510.430.40
Tennessee MartinOVC1.751.6959.2659.260.320.31
MaineAE1.721.6710.3410.34-1.37-1.32
TennesseeSEC1.721.6750.0050.000.00-0.00
OklahomaB121.721.6667.8667.800.620.59
BelmontOVC1.701.6467.8667.860.610.59
Kennesaw St.ASun1.701.6427.5927.59-0.76-0.74
ChattanoogaSC1.691.6471.4371.430.730.70
NorthwesternB101.691.6451.7250.380.060.01
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat1.671.6137.9337.93-0.40-0.39
North CarolinaACC1.671.6172.4171.770.750.70
WisconsinB100.290.2790.0088.730.230.21
NJITind0.230.2156.0056.000.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1951.7251.720.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1962.0762.070.050.05
SyracuseACC0.200.1960.0059.100.040.03
IllinoisB100.200.1863.3362.470.050.05
KansasB120.150.1680.0078.510.090.09
MercerSC0.170.1651.7251.720.010.01
LehighPat0.170.1651.7251.720.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1644.8345.40-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1666.6766.280.050.05
Ohio St.B100.170.1673.3372.560.080.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Murray St.OVC0.140.1485.7185.710.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1454.8454.840.010.01
LipscombASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.150.1450.0048.480.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.140.1344.8344.45-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.110.1373.3373.330.050.06
Stony BrookAE0.110.1366.6766.670.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.140.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.140.1333.3332.68-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.140.1346.4347.82-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1189.6689.660.090.09
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.5265.880.040.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1148.2848.63-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.05
UMBCAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.110.1170.0070.800.050.04
BrownIvy0.080.1140.7438.88-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.1116.6716.67-0.06-0.07
BucknellPat0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DukeACC0.090.1190.0088.610.070.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.3363.730.030.03
MissouriSEC0.110.1127.5927.73-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.080.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1155.1755.990.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.1037.9338.79-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.10100.0099.900.080.10
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1018.5217.90-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.080.1066.6767.380.030.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0862.9662.960.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0843.3344.74-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0862.0762.070.020.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0864.2964.290.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0867.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0855.5656.790.010.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0851.8551.850.000.00
SamfordSC0.090.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0890.0090.000.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0858.0659.050.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0850.0048.790.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0850.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.090.0843.3342.02-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
IUPUISum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0832.1432.89-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.1754.370.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0837.9337.46-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0866.6766.660.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.0060.250.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.4444.65-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0844.8343.73-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0875.0073.120.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0850.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0876.6775.460.040.04
MarylandB100.080.0883.3382.790.060.05
Miami FLACC0.060.0863.3363.700.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.04
Notre DameACC0.060.0883.3383.560.040.05
PurdueB100.080.0863.3363.340.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0551.7252.180.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0526.9229.11-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0551.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0553.3354.210.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0580.0079.770.030.03
BaylorB120.060.0572.4173.250.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0529.6329.20-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0553.5753.570.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0593.3393.330.050.05
HartfordAE0.060.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0572.4172.050.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.060.0558.6258.620.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0570.0068.620.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0537.9338.94-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0523.3322.92-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0525.9325.08-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0560.7160.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0522.2222.11-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0560.7159.670.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0546.4346.55-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0527.5928.43-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0556.6756.080.010.01
TexasB120.060.0560.0060.890.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0546.4346.45-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0558.6257.790.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0558.6258.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0573.3373.210.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0576.0075.240.030.03
ElonCAA0.060.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0560.0060.470.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.057.147.09-0.05-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0570.0070.110.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0548.2848.75-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0550.0049.660.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.030.0556.6755.620.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0544.4443.97-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0555.1755.550.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0555.1755.170.010.01
PennIvy0.060.0528.0028.95-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0550.0049.040.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0560.0059.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0570.3771.000.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0562.0760.280.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0585.1984.850.040.04
TempleAmer0.060.0570.0069.660.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0523.0823.56-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0568.9769.660.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0570.3768.760.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0337.0436.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0331.0332.31-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0322.2223.21-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0360.0058.930.010.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.47-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0339.2940.13-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0362.9661.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.59-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0356.6755.470.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.70-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0344.4444.54-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0346.1547.14-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0328.5727.77-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0365.5265.400.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0354.1755.350.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0327.5929.40-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.7250.300.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0342.3142.01-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.650.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0377.7878.110.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0370.3770.210.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0350.0050.340.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0330.4330.64-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0341.3841.54-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.4329.84-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0378.5778.600.020.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.07-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0343.3343.10-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0357.1456.680.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0359.2659.260.010.00