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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:53.9
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:98
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-724.61.32%
22-831.811.07%
21-943.627.44%
20-1055.931.96%
19-1167.419.93%
18-1280.17.09%
17-1395.01.12%
16-14109.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14The Citadel (307.1)SCH144-71W100%0.0
11-19Missouri St. (234.0)MVCN59-93W100%0.0
11-20Temple (85.7)AmerN74-69W100%0.0
11-22Miami FL (11.4)ACCN85-75L0%0.0
11-28SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH89-73W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (46.2)AmerA76-78W100%0.0
12-5Indiana St. (146.9)MVCH85-71W100%0.0
12-7VMI (336.0)SCH93-66W100%0.0
12-12Tennessee (111.3)SECH94-86W100%0.0
12-19Purdue (15.3)B10N68-74W100%0.0
12-22Southern Utah (334.6)BSkyH88-52W100%0.0
12-28IUPUI (177.9)SumH92-54W100%0.0
12-31Providence (45.4)BEH73-81L0%0.0
1-2Xavier (10.2)BEA88-69L0%0.0
1-5DePaul (166.6)BEA72-77W100%0.0
1-10Villanova (3.7)BEH55-60L0%0.0
1-16St. John's (232.3)BEH78-58W100%0.0
1-19Providence (45.4)BEA71-68L0%0.0
1-23Creighton (79.4)BEA72-64L0%0.0
1-27DePaul (166.6)BEH67-53W100%0.0
1-30Marquette (124.2)BEA75-69L0%0.0
2-2Georgetown (70.3)BEH87-76W100%0.0
2-6St. John's (232.3)BEA56-89W100%0.0
2-10Seton Hall (46.9)BEA0-049%-0.4
2-13Xavier (10.2)BEH0-058%2.2
2-16Creighton (79.4)BEH0-073%6.7
2-20Villanova (3.7)BEA0-020%-9.2
2-27Georgetown (70.3)BEA0-056%1.6
3-2Seton Hall (46.9)BEH0-072%6.3
3-5Marquette (124.2)BEH0-087%12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.3426.3368.0465.499.508.16
CreightonBE2.804.2462.5062.000.701.02
MarquetteBE2.764.2460.8756.010.600.51
VillanovaBE2.764.2486.9686.692.043.11
XavierBE2.894.2386.9682.592.142.76
GeorgetownBE2.854.2158.3354.950.470.42
ProvidenceBE4.804.2172.7368.992.181.60
DePaulBE4.794.2036.3636.44-1.31-1.14
Seton HallBE0.634.2073.9172.130.301.86
St. John'sBE4.804.2027.2725.08-2.18-2.10
IUPUISum2.461.8941.6741.18-0.41-0.33
CincinnatiAmer2.321.7875.0073.921.160.85
TempleAmer2.261.7766.6761.880.750.42
Indiana St.MVC2.261.7554.5553.760.210.13
Missouri St.MVC2.261.7540.9139.16-0.41-0.38
The CitadelSC2.231.7333.3331.17-0.74-0.65
VMISC2.221.7315.7917.42-1.52-1.12
PurdueB102.221.6983.3380.531.481.03
Southern UtahBSky2.221.6915.7915.93-1.52-1.15
Miami FLACC2.171.6781.8276.751.380.89
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.171.6718.1821.42-1.38-0.95
TennesseeSEC2.171.6752.1749.740.09-0.01
NebraskaB100.270.2454.1751.880.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.2159.0959.420.050.04
RutgersB100.180.1921.7420.37-0.10-0.11
WisconsinB100.180.1960.8755.830.040.02
BradleyMVC0.140.1712.5012.90-0.11-0.13
DrakeMVC0.230.1720.8323.21-0.14-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1773.9176.720.050.09
EvansvilleMVC0.280.1775.0076.250.140.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1743.4842.66-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.190.1765.2261.470.060.04
George WashingtonA100.180.1678.2674.410.100.08
South CarolinaSEC0.230.1686.3679.110.160.10
South FloridaAmer0.140.1620.0019.68-0.08-0.10
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1673.9172.480.070.07
Western CarolinaSC0.200.1528.5731.30-0.09-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1472.0070.540.060.06
MemphisAmer0.180.1460.8760.820.040.03
SyracuseACC0.180.1466.6762.530.060.03
IndianaB100.130.1479.1774.040.080.07
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1456.5259.860.020.03
FurmanSC0.160.1354.1754.060.010.01
MercerSC0.150.1369.5769.020.060.05
SamfordSC0.150.1341.6742.60-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1327.2731.05-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.160.1343.4846.22-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1225.0026.86-0.07-0.05
Penn St.B100.190.1250.0046.740.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1154.1750.940.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1154.1755.020.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1139.1341.10-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1164.0062.060.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1134.7840.91-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1143.4850.65-0.020.00
Florida St.ACC0.140.1169.5764.890.050.03
WagnerNEC0.090.1163.6465.020.020.03
La SalleA100.140.1120.0020.46-0.09-0.06
AuburnSEC0.140.1139.1335.43-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.140.114.357.72-0.12-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1143.4841.96-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.1169.5766.580.040.04
MichiganB100.090.1169.5766.220.030.04
NJITASun0.180.1154.1755.280.020.01
StanfordP120.140.1150.0046.540.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.1183.3378.470.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1127.7829.16-0.06-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.140.1152.1751.510.010.00
Arizona St.P120.090.1154.1751.690.010.00
BrownIvy0.130.1131.5831.07-0.05-0.04
BryantNEC0.130.1125.0026.39-0.07-0.05
IowaB100.130.1182.6180.550.090.07
MarylandB100.090.1187.5083.700.070.07
MassachusettsA100.130.1140.9139.33-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.090.1186.9682.650.070.07
CampbellBSth0.150.0928.5729.65-0.06-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0986.9686.660.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.050.0952.0048.860.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0940.9143.54-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0913.6415.77-0.07-0.06
UtahP120.150.0969.5767.500.060.03
IPFWSum0.090.0970.8368.550.040.03
USCP120.090.0978.2673.050.050.04
UTSACUSA0.100.0813.6413.63-0.07-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0845.4546.24-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0866.6766.540.030.03
StetsonASun0.090.0823.8127.67-0.05-0.04
MinnesotaB100.140.0826.0927.79-0.07-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0843.4843.78-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0834.7833.09-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0843.4840.46-0.01-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0859.0953.250.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0859.0955.300.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.0852.9452.080.010.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0862.5058.930.000.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0834.7830.33-0.01-0.03
UCFAmer0.090.0850.0044.860.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0829.1726.74-0.06-0.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0821.7423.34-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.090.0875.0071.800.050.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0850.0051.920.000.00
FloridaSEC0.140.0866.6766.320.050.03
PennIvy0.090.0838.8937.63-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0882.6178.910.060.05
SMUAmer0.090.0890.9186.110.080.06
IllinoisB100.130.0845.8344.13-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0865.2260.260.010.02
Michigan St.B100.130.0880.0081.600.080.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0865.2266.200.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.0652.3854.080.010.01
IdahoBSky0.110.0654.5554.950.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.320.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0610.0013.14-0.04-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.240.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.250.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0631.5837.70-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0645.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.500.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0636.3633.54-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0663.6460.920.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0681.8283.040.060.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0666.6762.650.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0660.8757.190.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0690.4886.910.070.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0631.5831.75-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.300.030.04
DenverSum0.090.0654.1751.790.010.00
FordhamA100.090.0655.0052.190.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.065.007.21-0.08-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0645.4551.34-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0656.5256.320.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0624.0024.55-0.05-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.390.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0663.6462.150.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.06-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.790.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0640.9143.29-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0641.6741.23-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0677.2776.870.050.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0637.5043.38-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.000.0623.8126.71-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.33-0.05-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.69-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.010.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0572.7367.630.040.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0533.3332.36-0.01-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0582.6181.140.030.03
ArizonaP120.090.0579.1778.350.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0053.100.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0514.2920.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.0018.09-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.090.0525.0026.75-0.05-0.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.50-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0054.200.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0575.0072.610.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0533.3333.13-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0529.1733.74-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0580.0081.160.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.040.0533.3333.04-0.01-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0550.0051.300.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.090.0558.3357.170.020.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0540.0042.11-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0525.0022.73-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.14-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0576.1973.420.020.03
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.370.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0335.0032.27-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.380.040.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.22-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.98-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.630.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.220.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.24-0.04-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0357.8956.090.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0321.7423.40-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0379.1776.070.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.22-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.580.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.840.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.22-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.92-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.210.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.730.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.12-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0356.5262.790.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.89-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.34-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2677.860.030.01
VCUA100.040.0373.9173.970.020.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01