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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Butler

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-822.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Elon (174.0)SCH74-59W100%0.0
11-13Xavier (87.0)A10A62-47L0%0.0
11-19Marquette (13.0)BEN71-72W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina (17.0)ACCN71-82W100%0.0
11-21Illinois (40.0)B10N78-61L0%0.0
12-1Ball St. (233.0)MACH67-53W100%0.0
12-5IUPUI (326.0)SumH87-55W100%0.0
12-8Northwestern (168.0)B10A65-74W100%0.0
12-15Indiana (8.0)B10N86-88W100%0.0
12-22Evansville (106.0)MVCH75-67W100%0.0
12-29Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA49-68W100%0.0
1-2Pennsylvania (280.0)IvyH70-57W100%0.0
1-5New Orleans (346.0)indH57-44W100%0.0
1-9Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A66-72W100%0.0
1-12Dayton (114.0)A10A73-79W100%0.0
1-16Richmond (92.0)A10H62-47W100%0.0
1-19Gonzaga (6.0)WCCH64-63W100%0.0
1-23La Salle (46.0)A10A54-53L0%0.0
1-26Temple (42.0)A10H83-71W100%0.0
1-31St. Louis (15.0)A10A75-58L0%0.0
2-2Rhode Island (201.0)A10H75-68W100%0.0
2-6St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H77-58W100%0.0
2-9George Washington (147.0)A10A56-59W100%0.0
2-13Charlotte (68.0)A10H67-71L0%0.0
2-16Fordham (228.0)A10A63-68W100%0.0
2-19Duquesne (229.0)A10H68-49W100%0.0
2-22St. Louis (15.0)A10H61-65L0%0.0
3-2Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A84-52L0%0.0
3-7Massachusetts (57.0)A10A62-73W100%0.0
3-9Xavier (87.0)A10H67-62W100%0.0
3-14Dayton (114.0)A10N73-67W100%0.0
3-15La Salle (46.0)A10N58-69W100%0.0
3-16St. Louis (15.0)A10N67-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerA1026.1026.1075.8475.8413.4913.49
St. LouisA105.015.0180.0080.003.003.00
XavierA103.563.5655.1755.170.370.37
DaytonA103.523.5258.6258.620.610.61
La SalleA103.523.5271.4371.431.511.51
Virginia CommonwealthA102.122.1275.7675.761.091.09
MassachusettsA102.102.1067.7467.740.750.75
Saint Joseph'sA102.102.1060.0060.000.420.42
CharlotteA102.092.0964.5264.520.610.61
George WashingtonA102.052.0544.8344.83-0.21-0.21
TempleA102.052.0574.1974.190.990.99
DuquesneA102.042.0427.5927.59-0.91-0.91
FordhamA102.032.0323.3323.33-1.08-1.08
RichmondA102.022.0258.0658.060.330.33
St. BonaventureA102.002.0050.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA102.002.0028.5728.57-0.86-0.86
PennsylvaniaIvy1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
IndianaB101.631.6384.3884.381.121.12
IllinoisB101.631.6362.5062.500.410.41
NorthwesternB101.581.5841.9441.94-0.26-0.26
VanderbiltSEC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum1.541.5413.7913.79-1.12-1.12
New Orleansind1.541.5419.0519.05-0.95-0.95
ElonSC1.541.5465.5265.520.480.48
GonzagaWCC1.541.5496.7796.771.441.44
North CarolinaACC1.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
EvansvilleMVC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
MarquetteBE1.521.5276.6776.670.810.81
Penn St.B100.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
PurdueB100.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
VillanovaBE0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Miami FLACC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Ohio St.B100.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
MichiganB100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
WoffordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
IowaB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
SienaMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Notre DameBE0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
HarvardIvy0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarylandACC0.120.1264.7164.710.030.03
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Florida St.ACC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
KansasB120.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
BrownIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
North TexasSB0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0948.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
NebraskaB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
MemphisCUSA0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0728.0028.00-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00