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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:37.4
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:13
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-78.70.07%
23-812.31.30%
22-917.46.58%
21-1024.017.65%
20-1132.626.14%
19-1241.826.12%
18-1351.614.75%
17-1462.16.00%
16-1573.51.20%
15-1687.60.17%
14-1799.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH82-64W100%0.0
11-12Princeton (140.5)IvyH85-75W100%0.0
11-15Maryland (45.2)B10A79-65L0%0.0
11-18Furman (87.9)SCH82-65W100%0.0
11-23Texas (46.2)B12N61-48L0%0.0
11-24Portland St. (122.0)BSkyN69-71W100%0.0
11-26Ohio St. (21.1)B10N66-67W100%0.0
12-2Saint Louis (176.5)A10H75-45W100%0.0
12-5Utah (67.5)P12H81-69W100%0.0
12-9Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH95-67W100%0.0
12-16Purdue (6.5)B10N67-82L0%0.0
12-19Morehead St. (262.1)OVCH85-69W100%0.0
12-21Western Illinois (297.6)SumH107-46W100%0.0
12-27Georgetown (142.9)BEA89-91W100%0.0
12-30Villanova (1.9)BEH101-93W100%0.0
1-2Xavier (6.3)BEA86-79L0%0.0
1-6Seton Hall (25.9)BEH87-90L0%0.0
1-9Creighton (29.6)BEA85-74L0%0.0
1-12Marquette (52.5)BEH94-83W100%0.0
1-15Providence (44.5)BEA70-60L0%0.0
1-20DePaul (187.0)BEA67-79W100%0.0
1-27St. John's (95.3)BEH0-075%7.7
1-31Marquette (52.5)BEA0-043%-2.0
2-3DePaul (187.0)BEH0-087%12.4
2-6Xavier (6.3)BEH0-047%-0.9
2-10Villanova (1.9)BEA0-011%-13.8
2-13Georgetown (142.9)BEH0-083%10.6
2-17Providence (44.5)BEH0-069%5.5
2-20Creighton (29.6)BEH0-049%-0.1
2-28St. John's (95.3)BEA0-055%1.3
3-3Seton Hall (25.9)BEA0-036%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.3426.3365.0660.507.935.53
XavierBE2.824.1185.0080.321.972.49
ProvidenceBE2.744.1168.4260.131.010.83
DePaulBE2.754.1044.4436.29-0.31-1.13
MarquetteBE2.804.1072.2262.841.251.05
Seton HallBE2.684.0873.6866.931.271.38
VillanovaBE2.634.08100.0093.462.633.55
CreightonBE2.744.0873.6870.381.301.66
St. John'sBE0.494.0847.3742.67-0.03-0.60
GeorgetownBE2.694.0772.2257.441.190.61
PurdueB102.501.7590.0087.982.001.33
MarylandB102.491.6968.4264.050.920.48
Youngstown St.Horz2.441.6722.2224.35-1.36-0.86
Ohio St.B102.441.6785.0079.071.710.97
Morehead St.OVC2.441.6625.0029.79-1.22-0.67
Saint LouisA102.441.6650.0048.540.00-0.05
FurmanSC2.381.6170.5970.990.980.68
Kennesaw St.ASun2.381.6117.6525.87-1.54-0.78
Portland St.BSky2.381.6162.5065.550.600.50
PrincetonIvy2.381.6156.2562.450.300.40
TexasB122.381.6161.1156.220.530.20
UtahP122.381.6166.6761.840.790.38
Western IllinoisSum2.381.6146.1536.84-0.18-0.42
NorthwesternB100.240.2155.0050.330.020.00
WisconsinB100.230.2150.0046.300.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.120.1966.6759.820.040.04
IndianaB100.120.1857.8950.710.020.00
MichiganB100.240.1876.1970.740.120.08
RutgersB100.170.1855.0046.690.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1650.0051.640.000.01
Arizona St.P120.120.1678.9576.130.070.08
Michigan St.B100.180.1685.0083.200.130.11
VCUA100.180.1660.0059.700.040.03
BaylorB120.180.1661.1156.090.040.02
GonzagaWCC0.240.1680.9583.260.150.10
MinnesotaB100.230.1663.6457.630.060.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.300.1529.4133.93-0.12-0.05
IUPUIHorz0.270.1527.7829.83-0.12-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.1436.8432.76-0.07-0.05
LipscombASun0.260.1452.9459.340.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1435.2940.48-0.05-0.03
YaleIvy0.130.1441.1847.56-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.190.1470.0061.440.080.03
DukeACC0.200.1489.4785.210.160.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1415.7920.91-0.12-0.08
Texas TechB120.190.1378.9571.810.110.06
IllinoisB100.120.1347.3744.27-0.01-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.1361.9055.760.010.02
Rhode IslandA100.180.1383.3381.430.120.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.270.1257.8953.190.040.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1233.3333.77-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.200.1147.0641.41-0.01-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.1111.1118.00-0.05-0.07
BelmontOVC0.060.1171.4374.660.030.06
NJITASun0.060.1138.8942.61-0.01-0.02
OregonP120.200.1165.0063.850.060.03
BrownIvy0.060.1150.0045.140.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1120.0032.25-0.08-0.04
PennIvy0.130.1164.7162.720.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1110.5316.75-0.10-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1142.1146.00-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1142.1144.96-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.130.1131.5834.36-0.05-0.03
UCLAP120.120.1165.0062.050.040.03
Oregon St.P120.130.1157.8950.840.020.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1123.5332.57-0.10-0.04
George WashingtonA100.130.1145.0043.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.1160.0053.720.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1177.7879.150.070.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.1152.3848.530.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.190.1172.2268.930.080.04
La SalleA100.130.1140.0042.69-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.1130.0033.47-0.02-0.03
IowaB100.170.1047.6244.02-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1044.4450.08-0.010.00
RiderMAAC0.120.1065.0065.320.030.03
South DakotaSum0.150.1073.6872.380.070.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.0945.0047.07-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.150.0926.3228.11-0.07-0.04
Iowa St.B120.150.0961.1147.220.03-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0942.1143.51-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.130.0944.4454.86-0.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0966.6773.210.020.04
SamfordSC0.130.0927.7832.66-0.06-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.0938.8946.05-0.03-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0943.7540.93-0.02-0.02
USCP120.130.0871.4368.280.060.03
Utah St.MWC0.200.0845.0045.49-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.130.0855.0050.370.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0829.4134.76-0.02-0.03
PortlandWCC0.130.0827.7827.28-0.06-0.04
DetroitHorz0.130.0821.0525.97-0.07-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.0868.4261.230.050.02
HofstraCAA0.130.0857.8959.490.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.0868.4263.650.050.02
ArizonaP120.120.0880.0078.940.070.05
The CitadelSC0.120.0818.7518.36-0.08-0.05
MissouriSEC0.060.0866.6763.200.020.02
LafayettePat0.130.0822.2227.47-0.07-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0827.7841.03-0.06-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0866.6768.730.020.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.0844.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.080.003.07-0.12-0.07
HoustonAmer0.120.0878.9572.990.070.04
MassachusettsA100.120.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.120.0836.8445.21-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.120.0878.9569.790.070.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0868.4270.810.040.03
DenverSum0.000.0733.3336.480.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0752.6351.690.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0725.0028.01-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0744.4450.310.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0730.0032.52-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0772.2272.980.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0631.5832.720.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.260.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0670.0068.220.060.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0633.3336.93-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.50-0.03-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0633.3333.23-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0637.5046.690.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0664.7166.850.020.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0670.5973.150.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0616.6724.45-0.05-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.400.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0670.5975.950.030.03
SeattleWAC0.130.0657.8954.500.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.0668.4257.740.050.01
BYUWCC0.130.0680.9576.240.080.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.130.0668.7563.990.050.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0658.8257.140.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.069.5217.90-0.05-0.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0625.0027.94-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0610.5327.29-0.05-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.5314.83-0.05-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0655.5656.740.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.4446.65-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0661.9065.160.010.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.600.000.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.060.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0668.7563.690.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0668.4269.250.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.370.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.130.0533.3340.08-0.04-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.120.0563.1663.220.030.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.057.1414.82-0.11-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.0557.1460.410.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0512.5025.45-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0547.3750.940.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.050.009.09-0.06-0.04
DuquesneA100.060.0570.0058.090.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0566.6755.940.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0570.0071.230.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0064.110.000.02
LSUSEC0.060.0561.1153.170.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0537.5045.240.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0541.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0563.1661.020.020.01
UCFAmer0.000.0568.4260.860.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0560.0062.030.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0575.0077.850.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0578.9577.380.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0565.0054.670.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0589.4785.550.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0520.0041.73-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.35-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.060.0584.2179.750.040.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0550.0050.860.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0550.0051.380.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0568.4254.090.020.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0542.1146.09-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.060.0573.6865.600.030.02
TempleAmer0.060.0552.6351.740.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0536.8435.57-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0564.7164.570.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0584.2178.170.040.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.710.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1115.290.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.94-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0337.5033.780.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.86-0.05-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0361.9063.140.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.080.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.030.0010.67-0.06-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0373.6865.260.030.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
BucknellPat0.060.0361.9068.020.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0358.8261.450.010.01
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0338.8940.78-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.060.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0338.8943.43-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0355.0052.470.010.00
UMBCAE0.060.0355.5655.540.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.230.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.4258.980.020.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0333.3337.23-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.240.040.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0338.8944.08-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0310.0019.63-0.05-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0352.6355.290.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0380.0075.060.030.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.850.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.03-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.990.020.01