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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-815.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH89-52W100%0.0
11-16Northwestern (50.0)B10H70-68W100%0.0
11-19Bucknell (63.0)PatH86-60W100%0.0
11-21Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH91-55W100%0.0
11-24Vanderbilt (44.0)SECN66-76W100%0.0
11-25Arizona (2.0)P12N65-69W100%0.0
11-28Utah (83.0)P12A59-68W100%0.0
12-3Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH82-58W100%0.0
12-7Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA72-71L0%0.0
12-10Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH75-65W100%0.0
12-17Indiana (79.0)B10N83-78W100%0.0
12-21Vermont (46.0)AEH81-69W100%0.0
12-29St. John's (140.0)BEA76-73L0%0.0
1-1Providence (56.0)BEH78-61W100%0.0
1-4Villanova (1.0)BEH66-58W100%0.0
1-7Georgetown (106.0)BEA76-85W100%0.0
1-11Creighton (26.0)BEA75-64L0%0.0
1-14Xavier (37.0)BEH83-78W100%0.0
1-16Marquette (60.0)BEH88-80W100%0.0
1-21DePaul (239.0)BEA69-70W100%0.0
1-25Seton Hall (43.0)BEA54-61W100%0.0
1-28Georgetown (106.0)BEH81-85L0%0.0
1-31Creighton (26.0)BEH67-76L0%0.0
2-7Marquette (60.0)BEA65-68W100%0.0
2-11Providence (56.0)BEA71-65L0%0.0
2-15St. John's (140.0)BEH110-86W100%0.0
2-19DePaul (239.0)BEH82-66W100%0.0
2-22Villanova (1.0)BEA66-74W100%0.0
2-26Xavier (37.0)BEA79-88W100%0.0
3-4Seton Hall (43.0)BEH64-70L0%0.0
3-9Xavier (37.0)BEN57-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.3126.3173.0573.0512.1312.13
XavierBE5.795.7964.5264.521.681.68
CreightonBE4.244.2470.9770.971.781.78
VillanovaBE4.224.2296.8896.883.963.96
St. John'sBE4.174.1741.9441.94-0.67-0.67
Seton HallBE4.164.1666.6766.671.391.39
DePaulBE4.164.1630.0030.00-1.66-1.66
ProvidenceBE4.144.1463.3363.331.101.10
MarquetteBE4.144.1465.5265.521.281.28
GeorgetownBE4.114.1143.3343.33-0.55-0.55
VanderbiltSEC1.711.7157.5857.580.260.26
NorthwesternB101.711.7169.7069.700.670.67
UtahP121.711.7164.2964.290.490.49
BucknellPat1.691.6978.7978.790.970.97
CincinnatiAmer1.681.6887.8887.881.281.28
ArizonaP121.671.6790.9190.911.371.37
VermontAE1.661.6687.5087.501.251.25
IndianaB101.661.6656.2556.250.210.21
Norfolk St.MEAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky1.661.6634.6234.62-0.51-0.51
Central ArkansasSlnd1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
Indiana St.MVC1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
WisconsinB100.300.3073.5373.530.140.14
RutgersB100.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
StanfordP120.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
PurdueB100.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
OregonP120.150.1584.8584.850.110.11
Washington St.P120.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.150.1568.5768.570.060.06
Arizona St.P120.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
New HampshireAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
La SalleA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00