live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:14.7
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:16
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-01.00.01%
29-11.20.10%
28-21.60.48%
27-32.51.96%
26-44.05.13%
25-56.010.48%
24-68.816.42%
23-712.119.80%
22-816.018.06%
21-920.613.83%
20-1026.17.97%
19-1133.03.71%
18-1241.01.39%
17-1351.50.47%
16-1463.80.16%
15-1584.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH89-52W100%0.0
11-16Northwestern (60.3)B10H70-68W100%0.0
11-19Bucknell (97.9)PatH86-60W100%0.0
11-21Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH91-55W100%0.0
11-24Vanderbilt (72.4)SECN66-76W100%0.0
11-25Arizona (28.2)P12N65-69W100%0.0
11-28Utah (80.8)P12A59-68W100%0.0
12-3Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndH0-099%29.6
12-7Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-081%10.4
12-10Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH0-063%3.9
12-17Indiana (20.3)B10N0-047%-0.9
12-21Vermont (91.3)AEH0-091%16.2
12-29St. John's (167.9)BEA0-079%9.9
1-1Providence (75.1)BEH0-082%10.8
1-4Villanova (7.4)BEH0-047%-0.8
1-7Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-066%4.8
1-11Creighton (25.4)BEA0-042%-2.5
1-14Xavier (11.9)BEH0-059%2.7
1-16Marquette (60.1)BEH0-070%6.4
1-21DePaul (206.1)BEA0-088%14.4
1-25Seton Hall (76.8)BEA0-063%4.0
1-28Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-082%11.0
1-31Creighton (25.4)BEH0-062%3.7
2-7Marquette (60.1)BEA0-051%0.3
2-11Providence (75.1)BEA0-065%4.7
2-15St. John's (167.9)BEH0-091%16.1
2-19DePaul (206.1)BEH0-096%20.6
2-22Villanova (7.4)BEA0-028%-7.0
2-26Xavier (11.9)BEA0-039%-3.5
3-4Seton Hall (76.8)BEH0-080%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE29.0626.32100.0074.8129.0613.06
XavierBE0.004.27100.0076.420.002.25
ProvidenceBE0.004.2471.4358.320.000.71
DePaulBE0.004.2380.0037.960.00-1.02
MarquetteBE0.514.2371.4364.780.221.25
GeorgetownBE0.004.2150.0049.040.00-0.08
St. John'sBE0.004.2128.5735.24-0.00-1.24
VillanovaBE0.004.21100.0084.550.002.91
CreightonBE0.004.20100.0078.690.002.41
Seton HallBE0.004.2071.4356.380.000.54
VanderbiltSEC8.181.7866.6750.492.730.02
NorthwesternB107.141.7883.3368.424.760.65
BucknellPat8.841.7585.7169.926.320.70
UtahP127.141.75100.0063.487.140.47
ArizonaP127.741.73100.0073.357.740.81
CincinnatiAmer0.001.7285.7182.410.001.12
IndianaB100.001.7283.3375.800.000.89
Norfolk St.MEAC8.101.720.0039.78-8.10-0.35
Northern ColoradoBSky8.101.7220.0042.27-4.86-0.27
VermontAE0.001.7262.5073.790.000.82
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.6714.2930.10-0.00-0.66
Indiana St.MVC0.001.6733.3347.79-0.00-0.07
WisconsinB100.000.2775.0073.840.000.13
StanfordP120.000.2075.0059.100.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1983.3344.770.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1971.4374.450.000.09
CaliforniaP120.000.1783.3363.610.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1750.0036.820.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.1757.1436.050.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1640.0057.49-0.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1671.4366.530.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1671.4363.570.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.960.1671.4352.370.410.01
Penn St.B100.000.1662.5043.960.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
OregonP120.000.1471.4366.730.000.05
HowardMEAC0.000.140.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.140.0038.51-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1360.0051.780.000.00
Michigan St.B100.510.1350.0061.590.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1385.7165.670.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.1257.1452.630.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.890.120.0018.22-0.89-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1116.6731.91-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1175.0064.960.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1116.6734.31-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.1166.6751.460.170.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1116.6736.35-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0080.780.000.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.1142.8640.94-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1140.0050.91-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.1187.5075.320.000.06
IowaB100.000.1142.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3340.49-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.1116.6725.61-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.1150.0057.480.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1150.0038.430.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.1116.6735.65-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1133.3338.76-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3331.87-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1133.3367.01-0.000.04
MarylandB100.000.1185.7156.490.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.1185.7172.660.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1166.6770.140.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1114.2926.81-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.05
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
Oregon St.P120.000.0928.5723.76-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC1.700.0942.8638.05-0.24-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0933.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0966.6754.420.200.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0083.550.000.06
USCP120.000.09100.0075.380.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC1.620.0837.5036.24-0.40-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.970.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0850.0060.380.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0820.0034.22-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0828.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0860.0043.970.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.450.0825.0039.28-0.22-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0857.1440.590.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0825.0040.81-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0883.3376.370.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0885.7168.390.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0833.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0850.0042.420.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0885.7159.740.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0825.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.510.08100.0075.010.510.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0816.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.890.0650.0062.460.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.890.060.0033.43-0.89-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.600.0671.4343.020.26-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.47-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5750.51-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0525.0053.29-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.530.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0566.6769.810.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0041.31-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0566.6772.440.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.0560.0057.900.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.510.050.0024.77-0.51-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0528.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0061.810.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0540.0057.97-0.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0550.0056.430.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0516.6729.36-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0056.71-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.510.0557.1467.020.070.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0566.6758.420.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0542.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0383.3350.740.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.600.0383.3351.920.400.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.510.0340.0061.37-0.100.01
BryantNEC0.510.0328.5750.20-0.220.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.0350.0059.670.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0333.3338.19-0.15-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
RichmondA100.450.0357.1448.600.06-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.510.0383.3370.360.340.01
TexasB120.510.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00