live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:31.0
Current RPI:31
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:30
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1031.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Maine (339.0)AEH99-57W100%0.0
11-18Chattanooga (112.0)SCH70-48W100%0.0
11-22Loyola MD (270.0)PatH80-39W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (11.0)ACCN66-74W100%0.0
11-27Oklahoma (18.0)B12N59-46L0%0.0
11-28Georgetown (25.0)BEN58-64W100%0.0
12-3Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA54-77W100%0.0
12-6Northwestern (125.0)B10H65-56W100%0.0
12-8Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH93-51W100%0.0
12-14Tennessee (96.0)SECA67-55L0%0.0
12-20Indiana (61.0)B10N82-73L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH64-37W100%0.0
12-28Belmont (105.0)OVCH67-56W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (3.0)BEA67-55L0%0.0
1-3St. John's (44.0)BEA69-73W100%0.0
1-6Providence (22.0)BEH62-66L0%0.0
1-10Xavier (30.0)BEH88-76W100%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (97.0)BEA75-79W100%0.0
1-17Georgetown (25.0)BEA61-59L0%0.0
1-21Creighton (151.0)BEH64-61W100%0.0
1-25Seton Hall (97.0)BEH77-57W100%0.0
1-31Marquette (147.0)BEA68-72W100%0.0
2-3St. John's (44.0)BEH85-62W100%0.0
2-7DePaul (197.0)BEH83-73W100%0.0
2-14Villanova (3.0)BEH65-68L0%0.0
2-16Creighton (151.0)BEA56-58W100%0.0
2-21Xavier (30.0)BEA73-56L0%0.0
2-25Marquette (147.0)BEH73-52W100%0.0
2-28DePaul (197.0)BEA53-67W100%0.0
3-3Georgetown (25.0)BEH54-60L0%0.0
3-7Providence (22.0)BEA64-68W100%0.0
3-12Xavier (30.0)BEN61-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE26.4126.4167.1267.129.059.05
GeorgetownBE5.645.6467.8667.862.022.02
XavierBE5.645.6461.2961.291.271.27
VillanovaBE4.174.1793.7593.753.643.64
CreightonBE4.154.1545.1645.16-0.40-0.40
MarquetteBE4.144.1443.3343.33-0.55-0.55
ProvidenceBE4.094.0967.7467.741.451.45
Seton HallBE4.074.0755.1755.170.420.42
DePaulBE4.044.0440.0040.00-0.81-0.81
St. John'sBE4.044.0468.9768.971.531.53
IndianaB101.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
Tennessee MartinOVC1.641.6459.2659.260.300.30
MaineAE1.611.6110.3410.34-1.28-1.28
TennesseeSEC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB101.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB121.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
BelmontOVC1.591.5970.0070.000.640.64
ChattanoogaSC1.591.5968.9768.970.600.60
Kennesaw St.ASun1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Indiana St.MVC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDPat1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
North CarolinaACC1.561.5670.5970.590.640.64
WisconsinB100.250.2591.1891.180.200.20
NJITind0.200.2056.0056.000.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
SyracuseACC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
IllinoisB100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Ohio St.B100.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0490.6290.620.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00