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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Butler

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:25.7
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:112
Current Record:8-2
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-25.00.01%
28-35.40.21%
27-47.61.04%
26-510.23.78%
25-612.89.29%
24-716.215.65%
23-820.219.99%
22-925.419.31%
21-1032.515.12%
20-1141.58.91%
19-1253.14.29%
18-1365.51.62%
17-1479.40.57%
16-1597.20.18%
15-16107.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Maine (322.8)AEH99-57W100%0.0
11-18Chattanooga (214.2)SCH70-48W100%0.0
11-22Loyola MD (294.6)PatH80-39W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (11.4)ACCN66-74W100%0.0
11-27Oklahoma (18.5)B12N59-46L0%0.0
11-28Georgetown (46.6)BEN58-64W100%0.0
12-3Indiana St. (250.9)MVCA54-77W100%0.0
12-6Northwestern (162.0)B10H65-56W100%0.0
12-8Kennesaw St. (294.7)ASunH93-51W100%0.0
12-14Tennessee (133.3)SECA67-55L0%0.0
12-20Indiana (78.9)B10N0-070%6.0
12-22Tennessee Martin (140.8)OVCH0-092%16.1
12-28Belmont (132.6)OVCH0-092%16.8
12-31Villanova (17.1)BEA0-031%-5.8
1-3St. John's (42.7)BEA0-049%-0.3
1-6Providence (80.8)BEH0-085%11.9
1-10Xavier (22.0)BEH0-065%4.7
1-13Seton Hall (36.3)BEA0-047%-0.8
1-17Georgetown (46.6)BEA0-047%-0.9
1-21Creighton (114.2)BEH0-088%13.9
1-25Seton Hall (36.3)BEH0-075%8.0
1-31Marquette (92.0)BEA0-064%4.1
2-3St. John's (42.7)BEH0-076%8.4
2-7DePaul (195.6)BEH0-095%19.2
2-14Villanova (17.1)BEH0-060%3.0
2-16Creighton (114.2)BEA0-067%5.2
2-21Xavier (22.0)BEA0-036%-4.0
2-25Marquette (92.0)BEH0-086%12.8
2-28DePaul (195.6)BEA0-082%10.5
3-3Georgetown (46.6)BEH0-075%7.8
3-7Providence (80.8)BEA0-061%3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Butler's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Butler's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Butler.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ButlerBE27.6426.4380.0072.3516.5911.81
GeorgetownBE5.005.7175.0063.462.501.54
MarquetteBE0.284.1960.0051.340.060.11
CreightonBE0.284.1775.0053.790.140.32
Seton HallBE0.004.1690.0069.360.001.61
ProvidenceBE0.004.1472.7355.300.000.44
VillanovaBE0.004.14100.0083.760.002.79
XavierBE0.004.1480.0072.480.001.86
St. John'sBE0.004.1488.8966.800.001.39
DePaulBE0.004.1360.0035.670.00-1.18
IndianaB100.001.7280.0058.240.000.28
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7062.5069.390.000.66
MaineAE5.001.6712.5022.03-3.75-0.93
TennesseeSEC5.001.6750.0043.740.00-0.21
OklahomaB125.001.6675.0066.192.500.54
BelmontOVC0.001.6460.0063.970.000.46
ChattanoogaSC5.231.6444.4451.55-0.580.05
Kennesaw St.ASun5.251.6440.0034.72-1.05-0.50
NorthwesternB105.001.6466.6741.721.67-0.27
Indiana St.MVC5.001.6137.5034.21-1.25-0.51
Loyola MDPat5.001.6137.5028.55-1.25-0.69
North CarolinaACC5.001.6177.7874.502.780.79
WisconsinB100.810.2790.9188.540.660.21
NJITind0.280.2236.3641.21-0.08-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1966.6764.740.000.06
SyracuseACC0.510.1966.6758.330.170.03
IllinoisB100.280.1972.7365.120.130.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1733.3339.29-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.560.1688.8969.210.430.06
MercerSC0.230.1644.4444.53-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.000.1637.5047.68-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1640.0050.17-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1672.7373.190.000.07
Ohio St.B100.000.1690.0084.460.000.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.140.0015.18-0.00-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.530.1444.4449.69-0.06-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.1422.2238.12-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1455.5661.910.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.1433.3343.01-0.08-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.780.1430.0039.58-0.31-0.03
FloridaSEC0.530.1460.0064.140.110.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1433.3355.14-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1366.6744.280.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.250.1377.7851.830.140.00
RutgersB100.000.1360.0034.920.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.1355.5642.460.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.280.1222.2230.55-0.15-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1118.1821.03-0.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.1120.0020.26-0.00-0.07
UMBCAE0.280.1110.0020.97-0.22-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.380.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1187.5085.540.000.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.250.1150.0047.740.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.250.1162.5059.500.060.02
VCUA100.280.1170.0071.450.110.05
AlbanyAE0.000.1133.3348.78-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.110.0011.87-0.00-0.08
BucknellPat0.000.1140.0036.30-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.34-0.00-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1177.7869.590.000.04
NavyPat0.000.1120.0021.61-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.1122.2237.12-0.14-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.280.1166.6742.760.09-0.02
BrownIvy0.530.1140.0033.52-0.11-0.03
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.560.000.08
MissouriSEC0.280.1144.4431.92-0.03-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1162.5057.080.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1180.0066.580.000.04
KentuckySEC0.250.10100.0095.110.250.09
IowaB100.250.1072.7362.430.110.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0023.36-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0944.4446.81-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0068.680.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5637.870.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6737.98-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0877.7871.170.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.0877.7868.880.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0063.510.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0842.8633.87-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.280.0855.5659.230.030.02
SamfordSC0.230.0833.3331.23-0.08-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0822.2240.60-0.15-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.0825.0028.59-0.14-0.04
TowsonCAA0.280.0866.6751.280.090.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0871.4364.140.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0838.4644.31-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.250.0850.0057.210.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.250.0890.0078.440.200.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.0833.3344.60-0.09-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0837.5038.31-0.07-0.02
Texas TechB120.280.0890.0055.490.220.01
Kansas St.B120.280.0860.0037.150.06-0.02
IUPUISum0.280.0820.0027.11-0.17-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0855.5640.440.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6754.650.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4435.91-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.530.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.0881.8264.670.180.02
TulsaAmer0.280.0860.0056.900.060.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0038.230.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.970.000.06
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.370.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0881.8266.320.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.0844.4469.77-0.030.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0890.9172.430.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.770.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.640.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4440.07-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0064.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3342.54-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.70-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.07-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.620.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.52-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.810.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.100.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.22-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0070.210.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0059.930.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.61-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.37-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.570.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.570.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5544.640.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.490.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.15-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.250.0616.6730.30-0.17-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.330.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.800.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.08-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.790.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.530.0585.7170.370.380.02
ElonCAA0.250.0537.5047.90-0.06-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0530.0036.94-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0028.67-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0560.0053.630.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.770.000.02
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.800.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0528.5741.46-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0528.5728.06-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.60-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0590.0090.870.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0588.8963.400.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0580.0064.030.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.610.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0518.1836.00-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0544.4455.60-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0511.1125.05-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0512.5029.32-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0032.93-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.880.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3647.58-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0566.6766.120.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.86-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0066.920.000.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.650.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0588.8955.090.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0575.0060.310.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0067.450.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0511.1144.75-0.22-0.01
UCLAP120.530.0572.7357.230.240.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0017.19-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0577.7868.980.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.43-0.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.930.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0560.0055.280.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.0510.0018.50-0.20-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0536.3647.56-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0537.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0590.9153.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.850.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.430.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0554.5557.650.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0527.2738.75-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0566.6777.530.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0563.6455.560.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0533.3341.24-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0560.0071.320.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0572.7366.650.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1831.71-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.51-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.14-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0345.4554.26-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.74-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.030.0028.56-0.23-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.280.0328.5737.33-0.12-0.01
CaliforniaP120.230.0390.9168.690.190.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0357.1470.410.040.01
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0362.5064.770.070.01
CornellIvy0.280.0355.5648.170.03-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.280.0350.0046.960.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.230.0344.4450.85-0.030.00
IonaMAAC0.280.0366.6772.800.090.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.0375.0059.530.110.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0355.5660.240.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.0355.5656.260.030.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.63-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.280.0360.0033.900.06-0.01
SienaMAAC0.280.0333.3348.90-0.09-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.00-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.280.0380.0070.970.170.01
WagnerNEC0.280.0314.2933.57-0.20-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0345.4543.81-0.02-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0026.38-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.280.030.0036.84-0.28-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.280.0344.4445.51-0.03-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.280.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0320.0045.49-0.17-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.880.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.400.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.44-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0044.120.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.250.0387.5076.810.190.01
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0337.5038.43-0.06-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0360.0075.470.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.80-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.0320.0039.24-0.15-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2933.59-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.250.0330.0028.56-0.10-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.54-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.79-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.300.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.760.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.620.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.520.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.010.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.650.000.00