Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

New! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated at least weekly)

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
235.8Air ForceMWC14.6167202215227238247253257266
113.3AkronMAC19.067829099111125140156183
106.5AlabamaSEC17.260778594106118129144170
327.5Alabama A&MSWAC11.7261302311320330337340342347
302.5Alabama St.SWAC16.3240268277292306314321329342
293.1AlbanyAE14.3242263273283294304311316324
345.0Alcorn St.SWAC2.0323340342344346346347347347
306.9AmericanPat13.0250275288300309316322327336
134.5Appalachian St.SC21.88597108117132150165178222
81.7ArizonaP1013.645586572819199111147
71.5Arizona St.P1011.34453586371788697134
126.3ArkansasSEC19.76890101112126141153165189
266.4Arkansas Little RockSB17.9192228243255267279290298313
207.7Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC19.0162176182195205220235247286
167.5Arkansas St.SB20.3107129140154169181194207235
204.0ArmyPat21.8149163177186203222232245275
163.8AuburnSEC19.990122138151165178188199222
129.7Austin PeayOVC20.17995105114128144157171205
210.1Ball St.MAC19.4138173184197211223236246272
23.2BaylorB1210.94811152130394977
139.8BelmontASun14.2107118123128139149160171201
229.3Bethune CookmanMEAC19.7163190203215230243254266302
237.3BinghamtonAE15.1170204218227239247256263281
214.0Boise St.WAC17.9139177191202214227237246270
106.8Boston CollegeACC16.856778695106118130141160
152.4Boston UniversityAE17.2112123129141151165175187216
197.1Bowling GreenMAC21.0115154170183197212225235256
115.5BradleyMVC18.8658192102114128141154177
15.9Brigham YoungMWC5.76910121519243054
266.3BrownIvy15.0203238248255266277286296311
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
344.6Bryantind1.7334341342344345346346347347
276.3BucknellPat16.5225244255264276289298306319
134.2BuffaloMAC20.67395107119134149162173199
17.9ButlerHorz5.671012141721263154
272.8Cal PolyBW18.2189236249260274286297306316
322.0Cal St. Bakersfieldind10.4261297309316324330334336340
212.6Cal St. FullertonBW21.2145171184197214229240251275
225.5Cal St. NorthridgeBW20.2154183198213227240250262294
24.1CaliforniaP109.571113172229384780
190.8CampbellASun19.2132154167177190205216229256
202.7CanisiusMAAC15.9150171181192203214223233250
292.2CentenarySum13.4237264274283294302309313320
318.5Central ArkansasSlnd12.8251287302312320328333337341
307.7Central ConnecticutNEC13.9250275289299310318324330339
192.9Central FloridaCUSA19.8111153168179193207218230250
186.3Central MichiganMAC23.8110139156170186202218233261
268.6Charleston SouthernBSth17.1197234247255269281291302316
47.1CharlotteA1012.1132431394756637193
219.8ChattanoogaSC18.9145181193208222233244253268
342.9Chicago St.GWC2.7321337340342343345346347347
61.1CincinnatiBE12.81935455361707884106
37.6ClemsonACC12.191722283746546283
144.7Cleveland St.Horz21.579103116129145160173185211
129.1Coastal CarolinaBSth13.3100109114119127137148160195
306.0ColgatePat14.3245272286298308316323328336
90.2College of CharlestonSC14.7526773808899111123155
136.4ColoradoB1221.97096106121138152165178197
113.5Colorado St.MWC19.1597989100114125139154172
250.1ColumbiaIvy18.4182214227237250263273286307
54.2ConnecticutBE14.11227364554637283104
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
332.1Coppin St.MEAC8.7274310320328335339341343346
52.1CornellIvy6.9324044475256616794
123.3CreightonMVC20.9708797108123138152166197
323.6DartmouthIvy10.0271299311318325331335337341
158.8DavidsonSC21.098119130144160173185201233
32.1DaytonA1011.091519243039475781
226.0DelawareCAA16.4161190203216228238246253267
236.6Delaware St.MEAC22.0166191205222239252262278311
148.7DenverSB24.186106117131150165180197228
180.2DePaulBE18.9101140155168182194204214229
162.9DetroitHorz19.9104126136150163176189203239
179.5DrakeMVC17.3114144157168180191202211231
105.7DrexelCAA15.667798794105115127140172
3.7DukeACC2.01122356825
123.2DuquesneA1021.5638495109123137153167199
243.1East CarolinaCUSA15.1164209223234244254261269281
138.0East Tennessee St.ASun17.197108117125138150160174218
217.6Eastern IllinoisOVC18.8155180192205219232241251279
131.4Eastern KentuckyOVC20.27996105117130145158172211
213.6Eastern MichiganMAC20.9136171185198215230239250275
293.2Eastern WashingtonBSky12.7236264275285295303308312320
282.7ElonSC16.5206250261271283295304311323
276.1EvansvilleMVC13.2218248258267277286292298307
108.8FairfieldMAAC18.062788796107120134148176
278.3Fairleigh DickinsonNEC15.9203246257267280290298306316
50.5FloridaSEC12.8112634415159677595
325.5Florida A&MMEAC10.9266300311319327334338340344
201.1Florida AtlanticSB20.5141161175186200216229240260
311.3Florida Gulf CoastASun9.5257289298306313318322326332
286.4Florida InternationalSB12.5234259269278288296302306314
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
41.5Florida St.ACC12.7101925324151586789
296.2FordhamA109.6238272283292298303306309317
160.9Fresno St.WAC21.292119132146162176187201229
266.7FurmanSC16.9207234245255267279288299311
308.9Gardner WebbBSth12.7245279291302311318323328335
132.8George MasonCAA20.66894105118133147160172193
136.9George WashingtonA1018.486103114123136150161174204
8.9GeorgetownBE4.11456810142041
101.8GeorgiaSEC21.340657686100116131147175
296.7Georgia SouthernSC15.2242260275288300309314319329
231.8Georgia St.CAA16.2164197210222233243252261278
25.2Georgia TechACC10.75913172332414969
35.5GonzagaWCC8.6162325283541475477
338.6GramblingSWAC5.5285323331337340342344345347
286.6HamptonMEAC16.3242255265275286298308316338
284.9HartfordAE15.0221254264275287296304310324
89.5HarvardIvy13.4596874808897107121161
234.4HawaiiWAC15.9160197213225236246253260273
269.4High PointBSth19.3202232246255269284294306325
177.3HofstraCAA18.7117142153165177189202215239
269.0Holy CrossPat17.7212235247256269282292304318
144.5HoustonCUSA22.785104116127143160175191221
342.5Houston BaptistGWC3.1316335339341343345346347347
313.9HowardMEAC11.3263287298308316322327331339
149.2IdahoWAC22.982105119134149165179193227
275.5Idaho St.BSky18.0198240252263276289300307320
76.5IllinoisB1012.729526068778592103117
293.2Illinois ChicagoHorz15.9226258271283296306312316325
108.0Illinois St.MVC19.062768594106121133149177
206.6IndianaB1015.9129173185196208218227233242
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
91.9Indiana St.MVC15.44665738190102113124147
79.9IonaMAAC12.649596571798897108138
199.8IowaB1014.1114169181191201210217224236
110.1Iowa St.B1217.651788898109121135146165
241.9IUPU Fort WayneSum16.5186210219231243253262275303
106.7IUPUISum12.679869298105114124135174
244.3Jackson St.SWAC17.6182207221234245256266279310
143.2JacksonvilleASun18.3103112119130143155168182210
265.2Jacksonville St.OVC17.2206233244253265277288298314
244.2James MadisonCAA15.0179210225235245255262270286
1.8KansasB121.21111123519
7.0Kansas St.B122.8134568101533
273.8Kennesaw St.ASun14.1208245254264276283293298305
57.5Kent St.MAC10.82839445057647281118
6.1KentuckySEC3.1123457101533
138.5La SalleA1019.482102113124138153164174196
203.7LafayettePat20.2143165177189204219229242262
239.8LamarSlnd22.0150191211228241254267281300
160.8LehighPat21.1107121134145161176187203240
252.2LibertyBSth16.2187220232241253263273284300
201.5LipscombASun14.8166178183190200212221233263
139.7Long Beach St.BW23.27998110122138156171187223
258.2Long IslandNEC16.7203226239246258270279293312
286.8Longwoodind18.5224250262273288301310319333
203.7Louisiana LafayetteSB21.7134162175188204221231244266
269.6Louisiana MonroeSB16.2206236248259269282290299310
220.8Louisiana St.SEC16.8136183197210223234241247256
61.3Louisiana TechWAC10.72742485461687584113
36.4LouisvilleBE12.751520273645536388
184.8Loyola ChicagoHorz18.8119147160172186197209219241
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
205.0Loyola MarymountWCC17.7123168182193205218228237250
179.5Loyola MDMAAC16.8130147158167179191201213239
154.9MaineAE17.4103122132143155166178190217
240.2ManhattanMAAC14.2180210221232241250258265281
330.1MaristMAAC5.5287316322328332334335337340
55.4MarquetteBE13.22231394655647384117
82.0MarshallCUSA14.9415764728091102116159
35.5MarylandACC12.871420263444536286
313.8Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC12.8248284297307315323329334339
194.2MassachusettsA1019.698153168181195208219229243
285.0McNeese St.Slnd17.9202247260273286298308315328
339.8MD Baltimore CountyAE3.2314331336339340342343344347
65.5MemphisCUSA11.63445515764738190120
230.3MercerASun18.1152192207217232244252261280
90.7Miami FLACC18.43258687890103114130158
135.6Miami OHMAC21.28098108120136149164179209
143.6MichiganB1021.370102116128143159172182203
23.6Michigan St.B109.861012162229374670
188.1Middle TennesseeSB17.5138155166175187201211224245
61.2MinnesotaB1013.82436445261707990127
42.6MississippiSEC11.5132228344251586688
64.8Mississippi St.SEC13.92739475564748294130
319.2Mississippi Valley St.SWAC12.9262289301312321329335339344
39.0MissouriB1212.8817232938485665100
279.4Missouri Kansas CitySum14.9225250259269281290299306316
85.5Missouri St.MVC15.1456167758494106119158
277.8MonmouthNEC16.0222246257267277290299306321
102.5MontanaBSky13.475848892100110121135176
192.5Montana St.BSky19.3132157167181191206219230249
95.2Morehead St.OVC14.46171788494104114128159
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
106.3Morgan St.MEAC12.976879297104114124138170
186.5Mount St. Mary'sNEC16.5150160165175185198208223255
68.0Murray St.OVC8.34655586267737987115
269.1NavyPat17.4195235247256269283291301312
246.7NC AshevilleBSth15.3194216227237247257266277298
263.1NC GreensboroSC14.4203235245253263274282290303
217.4NC WilmingtonCAA18.4140179192205219231240250269
127.1NebraskaB1221.36287100112126142156168191
64.6NevadaWAC14.73039475563738497151
32.4Nevada Las VegasMWC9.0121822263138455273
273.4New HampshireAE20.4197232246260275288300310328
14.3New MexicoMWC4.8589111317212646
82.7New Mexico St.WAC15.1355664728292102115153
324.6New OrleansSB9.3266303312319326332335337340
157.5NiagaraMAAC18.3101121133145158171180192216
292.0Nicholls St.Slnd19.3207249265279294307315321333
333.3NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC9.1266310320329336340342344347
309.1Norfolk St.MEAC15.2239274288300311320327333339
83.6North CarolinaACC15.3385664738394104115143
267.9North Carolina A&TMEAC19.7200231244254266282295307327
345.5North Carolina Centralind2.0331340343344346347347347347
110.7North Carolina St.ACC18.159788897110123136147169
331.1North DakotaGWC8.4287311319326333338340342347
269.1North Dakota St.Sum14.6205239250259269280287296307
223.8North FloridaASun16.4167190202212226236243253271
158.4North TexasSB20.8108120130143159173185200238
49.2NortheasternCAA9.8223237424955627091
204.1Northern ArizonaBSky18.5140169179191206216229237256
103.7Northern ColoradoBSky12.172859095102111120132163
250.0Northern IllinoisMAC16.5176215230239251261271280303
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
19.0Northern IowaMVC7.76911131823303859
88.9NorthwesternB1015.0506471788798108122158
316.9Northwestern St.Slnd13.2244284300310319326332336341
75.1Notre DameBE14.323485766748495104126
72.6OaklandSum9.75359626571788696124
147.7OhioMAC22.280105118132149164176190226
38.1Ohio St.B1012.2121823293746556499
79.8OklahomaB1215.6285060708090100112126
47.7Oklahoma St.B1213.092331384857647392
35.4Old DominionCAA8.9142124293441485574
122.0Oral RobertsSum16.48696102110119133145157188
152.1OregonP1021.771108123138153167180190208
202.8Oregon St.P1019.0117163177190204218226236247
115.6PacificBW19.7728492101113128143160196
209.9Penn St.B1017.0131173187199211223231237247
297.7PennsylvaniaIvy12.8241268280290300307312317330
283.4PepperdineWCC15.1224251263273284296302306315
26.0PittsburghBE10.541013182533414974
84.3PortlandWCC12.7576469768392101113145
210.1Portland St.BSky21.0131167181195212226236246265
250.9Prairie View A&MSWAC20.6197215224238249262278295334
326.0PresbyterianBSth8.5275306314321328332335338341
120.1PrincetonIvy19.7668696105119133146163200
98.2ProvidenceBE14.84470798798109117128140
14.9PurdueB106.6478101318243252
138.6QuinnipiacNEC16.9104113118126136150161176212
173.0RadfordBSth21.0121132146158174187199215247
20.7Rhode IslandA108.05912151925323956
288.1RiceCUSA13.8231257269279290299304311320
38.1RichmondA1010.9111924303846536077
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
159.5RiderMAAC17.893123135148161172182191207
153.8Robert MorrisNEC17.7104120131141154166176188226
161.8RutgersBE19.784119136149163176186196208
287.6Sacramento St.BSky12.5230259271279289297303307315
240.9Sacred HeartNEC17.2188207219231240252264275304
177.5Saint Joseph'sA1020.0100135152164179192202213227
79.9Sam Houston St.Slnd14.151596470788898113157
257.2SamfordSC15.3194226237248258267277286301
225.4San DiegoWCC11.5175201210219226234239246260
44.0San Diego St.MWC11.1162530354452586794
222.5San FranciscoWCC15.8159191200213223235241250262
141.9San Jose St.WAC24.56995110123142161174186211
220.8Santa ClaraWCC11.8171197205213221229236242258
321.8Savannah St.ind11.0280297306316322331336338342
222.4Seattleind18.1160186198210223235245256293
72.6Seton HallBE14.633475562718192106152
34.4SienaMAAC8.0122125293339455374
329.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.2287312319324331335337338343
221.2South AlabamaSB15.0167190201211223232240247261
74.3South CarolinaSEC15.922445464748594107138
214.2South Carolina St.MEAC21.2144174186199214229242255289
298.7South Carolina UpstateASun14.8231266278289301310316323330
236.2South DakotaGWC14.7202213218224236245256269304
204.6South Dakota St.Sum17.3152171182193204218227237254
64.9South FloridaBE12.22342505764738190115
298.6Southeast Missouri St.OVC12.0241272281291300308313317325
204.5Southeastern LouisianaSlnd22.6140161176187203221235247281
342.8SouthernSWAC3.2316335339341343345346347347
81.0Southern CaliforniaP1014.1415764717990100110147
133.6Southern IllinoisMVC20.57997107118134148160175200
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
197.3Southern MethodistCUSA20.6102154170184198212223236256
111.9Southern MississippiCUSA20.657778698110124141157206
316.8Southern UtahSum9.4264295304312318324328331337
184.1St. BonaventureA1022.598139156168184200213226251
275.6St. Francis NYNEC15.0230247256265275286296304318
312.5St. Francis PANEC13.1245281295306314322328333338
101.2St. John'sBE18.639687888100113126140160
124.0St. LouisA1023.9548093107124142155171197
42.1St. Mary'sWCC7.2232933374247515776
145.2St. Peter'sMAAC18.297111122132145158169182209
173.0StanfordP1023.693126140157174190203216233
170.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd24.6101122137154170186202219254
331.2StetsonASun6.1298316323328333336338339342
148.3Stony BrookAE20.198113122134148162174190231
3.0SyracuseBE1.71112345713
24.9TempleA108.981215182330374669
14.8TennesseeSEC7.236891318253462
335.4Tennessee MartinOVC5.9291319327333337339340342344
276.7Tennessee St.OVC15.8220245256266277288298305319
202.4Tennessee TechOVC17.6128167179190204215225233249
15.2TexasB127.0368101419243357
23.3Texas A&MB1210.74811152230384866
145.1Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd24.284103113127145162176193235
264.4Texas ArlingtonSlnd20.3188225240250264279292302318
174.6Texas ChristianMWC18.2108136151162176188197208223
53.5Texas El PasoCUSA10.62634404653606776103
326.2Texas Pan AmericanGWC9.8282304313320327334338340346
183.0Texas San AntonioSlnd23.5113139152167183199214230263
205.9Texas SouthernSWAC18.9158172183191206218231245291
256.5Texas St.Slnd20.4169214231244256270283295316
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
54.4Texas TechB1215.0525344455647483103
209.3The CitadelSC18.5144172186196209223233243261
323.0ToledoMAC7.4264305313319324328331334338
292.1TowsonCAA12.6237264275284294302307312322
170.2TroySB20.9115129144154171186196212241
255.7TulaneCUSA13.8197227238247256265274280292
63.1TulsaCUSA13.72237455463728191126
34.4UABCUSA11.081721263342505877
285.3UC DavisBW18.9201246259272288300309316326
277.0UC IrvineBW17.9211242254264277290301309327
264.2UC RiversideBW16.4203232244253263276286296312
144.6UC Santa BarbaraBW23.386103114128144160175191230
146.7UCLAP1019.078109121133148161170181196
162.8UtahMWC20.293120135150164177188201224
33.6Utah St.WAC10.0121922263240485676
329.2Utah ValleyGWC10.3273305315323331338340343346
167.6ValparaisoHorz21.1100125140153169182193209232
21.8VanderbiltSEC10.44810142028364778
145.4VermontAE16.4102115124134144157167178205
6.2VillanovaBE3.2123467101532
92.0VirginiaACC17.53761708091103116130150
43.2Virginia CommonwealthCAA10.2172631364250576589
316.7Virginia Military InstBSth12.5251288299310318326331335339
62.2Virginia TechACC14.91734435261728294125
323.2WagnerNEC8.1283305312318324329333336340
25.2Wake ForestACC11.54912162333425174
50.4WashingtonP1012.82028344149586879113
111.0Washington St.P1019.361788697110125137151175
80.8Weber St.BSky13.055626671798998112152
3.9West VirginiaBE2.21112457923
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
101.2Western CarolinaSC17.56074818999111125142185
307.7Western IllinoisSum12.8250277290300310316322328335
159.1Western KentuckySB22.1101117129144160173187204240
121.6Western MichiganMAC19.8768997107120134149165204
46.3Wichita St.MVC10.5192834394653606994
56.7William & MaryCAA10.82536434956647179100
314.2Winston Salem St.ind15.2238277295307316325332336342
181.1WinthropBSth18.1122147158170180194203219252
12.3WisconsinB105.346791115202651
120.9Wisconsin Green BayHorz18.0748998108119133145158185
160.4Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz20.499120134146160175187200231
100.2WoffordSC14.37078839098108119135170
82.9Wright St.Horz13.1556368748190101114155
206.5WyomingMWC15.4134174185197208218225233244
26.6XavierA109.091416202531394876
255.8YaleIvy14.5192228238246255265275286308
257.4Youngstown St.Horz14.8187226238248258268276283295