live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

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Through games of Dec 16, 2017.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
240.7Abilene ChristianSlnd35.5100167194217242266286307339
286.4Air ForceMWC25.1154230253271289305317326341
174.2AkronMAC43.03889117144176205229255304
47.7AlabamaSEC20.9415233345607696160
348.3Alabama A&MSWAC3.7313338344348349350351351351
342.9Alabama St.SWAC8.4273320333340346349350351351
107.6AlbanyAE28.836597286105126147170233
330.2Alcorn St.SWAC17.8220282305322335343348350351
289.8AmericanPat30.3149221248271294313326336348
215.9Appalachian St.SB37.787141167191216242264288339
23.3ArizonaP1211.227111522293850103
14.1Arizona St.P128.413581218253576
20.3ArkansasSEC12.1147111827375095
347.1Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.8273334341346349350351351351
279.7Arkansas St.SB30.0148215239260282302317329348
185.8ArmyPat37.360113137160186212234257315
43.3AuburnSEC19.8313212940547091151
234.7Austin PeayOVC38.294156185210236261283305337
89.6Ball St.MAC32.11539526686110134162229
36.7BaylorB1218.619152334486280131
103.1BelmontOVC28.734566882100122142166231
308.8Bethune CookmanMEAC23.8205255275294312327337344351
214.8BinghamtonAE35.295144168192216239260282326
45.4Boise St.MWC18.7817243243567090154
118.1Boston CollegeACC32.527577695118141161181226
223.7Boston UniversityPat35.385153177200225248268290331
199.0Bowling GreenMAC34.277127154177200223242262305
109.8BradleyMVC34.921516683107133157184239
264.2BrownIvy34.0124193219242266289308324345
320.1BryantNEC19.7196270293310325335341346350
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
99.2BucknellPat29.73051637796118139166268
60.1BuffaloMAC22.813263444577391115182
61.1ButlerBE23.65233344597593116164
62.5BYUWCC19.516314048607489107187
265.3Cal PolyBW31.1129199224245267288305319341
143.5Cal St. BakersfieldWAC36.9377696117143169192217290
203.8Cal St. FullertonBW40.956121151176205232256281332
335.4Cal St. NorthridgeBW13.6237299318330339345348349351
185.6CaliforniaP1230.249123145166187207224241271
263.0CampbellBSth33.7132193219240265288306323343
241.3CanisiusMAAC34.8107170196218242266286307341
198.1Central ArkansasSlnd36.469130151173198223244271326
236.1Central ConnecticutNEC34.5101165190213237260280301337
121.1Central MichiganMAC38.925547292119147173202267
309.5Charleston SouthernBSth23.0177255277296314327335342350
298.5CharlotteCUSA26.1166240262282302318330338347
232.2ChattanoogaSC36.793156184208233258278300335
336.1Chicago St.WAC7.7275316326333338341344346349
22.2CincinnatiAmer10.21811152128364787
33.4ClemsonACC16.518142131435572137
285.3Cleveland St.Horz30.3149220244265288308323334346
182.6Coastal CarolinaSB37.051108134157184208229254317
206.4ColgatePat40.566125154179207234258285335
129.1College of CharlestonCAA37.5306381101127155180207284
108.4ColoradoP1232.121516784107131151174226
209.1Colorado St.MWC33.678139164187211233251269311
274.0ColumbiaIvy31.6144207232253276297314328346
95.5ConnecticutAmer29.01745607494115134157216
332.9Coppin St.MEAC14.5238295314327337343347349351
264.3CornellIvy34.8117191219241266290309324346
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
28.5CreightonBE14.817121826374863113
324.9DartmouthIvy19.1197274299316330339344347351
81.3DavidsonA1030.4133446597799122151236
110.4DaytonA1033.227526986108132155181233
233.6DelawareCAA34.0100165189211235258277296334
349.7Delaware St.MEAC2.3311344348349350351351351351
291.0DenverSum28.8160227251273294313326335348
174.2DePaulBE30.062113134154176196212228272
281.2DetroitHorz27.5152223244263283302316327343
229.0DrakeMVC33.696158185208231252271289324
216.8DrexelCAA35.380144171194217241262283323
4.7DukeACC4.2111236101738
254.4DuquesneA1033.6109183210233256279297314343
283.0East CarolinaAmer23.2166232252268285300312321338
118.9East Tennessee St.SC32.134637996117140162188248
261.0Eastern IllinoisOVC37.3107183212236263289309326347
287.7Eastern KentuckyOVC28.2144225249270291309321332348
108.8Eastern MichiganMAC37.919476380105134161192270
194.8Eastern WashingtonBSky37.770120146169195221243269316
189.7ElonCAA41.259106136162191218242268333
119.6EvansvilleMVC36.423557293118145168192242
215.1FairfieldMAAC38.163138164190216242263286330
269.6Fairleigh DickinsonNEC36.0117194221246272297316330347
299.4FIUCUSA25.1187242265284303319329337349
48.1FloridaSEC19.9618253445597496155
323.0Florida A&MMEAC19.7213273296313328338344348351
233.1Florida AtlanticCUSA34.0113163188211234257277297331
154.6Florida Gulf CoastASun30.070100117133153174195217287
35.1Florida St.ACC16.5210162333445774123
271.3FordhamA1027.9148212234253273292306319338
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
217.7Fort WayneSum39.384137165192220245268292332
95.7Fresno St.MWC29.12446607493114135158224
115.9FurmanSC32.236617693114137159185251
272.9Gardner WebbBSth33.0138203228251275298315329346
235.9George MasonA1031.097171195216237258275294320
176.4George WashingtonA1035.837106129152177202222244299
169.6GeorgetownBE33.332102126147171193212231271
109.4GeorgiaSEC33.120506785108132154175234
98.0Georgia SouthernSB30.12749627694117139165249
161.6Georgia St.SB35.54894116136161186208232285
186.3Georgia TechACC30.764122145166188208224242284
24.6GonzagaWCC8.551215182329364577
274.8Grambling St.SWAC30.1142214235254276297314328346
144.8Grand CanyonWAC33.75484102121143168189215276
300.8Green BayHorz28.1132236261284306322333341349
270.5HamptonMEAC32.2156206227248271294313328347
322.7HartfordAE17.5224278299314327335341345350
177.3HarvardIvy39.350101126150177204229253317
219.5HawaiiBW40.958135165193221248272296333
248.7High PointBSth37.5117172199224250276297318344
100.8HofstraCAA31.52349627798121143169233
270.9Holy CrossPat32.4114202228250273295312325348
48.6HoustonAmer19.2419263546597494154
258.4Houston BaptistSlnd37.1111182210234260285306324347
303.5HowardMEAC27.5188240265287308325335344351
138.5IdahoBSky36.5447492112136163187215278
309.3Idaho St.BSky26.7166245272294315330339345351
127.9IllinoisB1035.0316383103127152174197251
289.9Illinois ChicagoHorz29.2165226249271293312326336349
130.4Illinois St.MVC35.6286484105130155178202247
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
303.3Incarnate WordSlnd29.6157232261286309326336344350
129.9IndianaB1034.1296585105130154174196259
174.6Indiana St.MVC37.540100125149176200223245291
101.2IonaMAAC31.02951647898121144170226
154.1IowaB1034.24387109131155178198219263
87.4Iowa St.B1227.2739536786106124143182
292.7IUPUIHorz30.2157226250273297316329338349
320.2Jackson St.SWAC21.6212267289309325336343348351
328.3JacksonvilleASun15.9228286307321332340344347351
115.8Jacksonville St.OVC31.239647793113136157183257
268.8James MadisonCAA29.6128206229249271291306320342
10.2KansasB127.41235813203081
83.9Kansas St.B1229.21034486281103123147220
281.3Kennesaw St.ASun32.5131211238260284306321333348
188.7Kent St.MAC37.448113140163190215237259306
24.3KentuckySEC14.61481322324460105
132.2La SalleA1034.2336988108131155177202251
311.6LafayettePat24.2160254277298317330338344351
125.0LamarSlnd33.8416783100122148170196266
193.9LehighPat36.473123146168195219241263317
157.6LibertyBSth32.56898116134157180200224278
102.1LipscombASun31.32953647899122145171237
308.3Little RockSB22.5188254277296313325333339347
290.1LIU BrooklynNEC30.8153222248270294314327338349
202.4Long Beach St.BW33.077137159180203225245264313
341.9LongwoodBSth7.0254323333339344347348349351
119.2Louisiana LafayetteSB32.037637996117141162187243
251.8Louisiana MonroeSB36.6102174203228254278299316336
133.5Louisiana TechCUSA35.5366988108132158180207276
37.0LouisvilleACC18.0210162435476179130
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
83.9Loyola ChicagoMVC29.91436486281102125151221
213.9Loyola MarymountWCC34.453143169191215238258277317
303.9Loyola MDPat27.3165239266288309325335342350
139.4LSUSEC35.2217293115139164186208251
330.7MaineAE14.4223293312324334341345348350
233.2ManhattanMAAC35.3102162187209234258278299336
317.5MaristMAAC19.1211270291307321332338343351
82.9MarquetteBE26.91437506380100120140200
162.2MarshallCUSA37.44690113136162188210234297
45.2MarylandB1019.4416233142567192153
336.4Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC11.7230304322332340345347349351
162.1MassachusettsA1037.94190112135162189211235291
330.8McNeese St.Slnd17.6209282307324336343347349351
151.4MemphisAmer35.33084105127152176197220272
113.1MercerSC31.437607490111134155179256
21.0Miami FLACC12.41471219283851103
213.1Miami OHMAC34.273140168191215237256275317
48.0MichiganB1020.6617253345597596163
12.3Michigan St.B107.313571116223161
47.1Middle TennesseeCUSA18.1920273444577191156
168.3MilwaukeeHorz34.462103124144168192213235302
72.7MinnesotaB1026.1113142546988109133191
154.8MississippiSEC31.92990113133156178195213258
100.5Mississippi St.SEC35.01342577498123148175224
339.4Mississippi Valley St.SWAC11.1254309325335343347349350351
25.1MissouriSEC14.11591523334458113
71.5Missouri St.MVC25.9153141526887108131192
134.4MonmouthMAAC34.9407291109132158181206267
179.1MontanaBSky39.757103127152179206231258313
213.1Montana St.BSky37.572138164188214240261283324
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
282.0Morehead St.OVC31.8122212238261286306320331344
267.8Morgan St.MEAC32.7148203225245268292311328348
283.7Mount St. Mary'sNEC32.5147214239262287309324336351
105.6Murray St.OVC31.035556882102126147173247
174.3NavyPat35.958105128149175199221245298
136.0NebraskaB1034.4337191111136160181202245
282.6Nebraska OmahaSum29.8146217242263285305319330346
19.0NevadaMWC9.1269121724314188
289.1New HampshireAE29.0163226250270292311325336347
210.2New MexicoMWC32.774143167188211233252272323
77.6New Mexico St.WAC26.5153848587493114139219
234.4New OrleansSlnd40.790152181207235263288311343
207.4NiagaraMAAC33.286141164185208230250272313
251.9Nicholls St.Slnd35.2108179206229253277297317340
249.2NJITASun35.5100176202226250274295315342
331.1Norfolk St.MEAC16.1230288309324335343347349351
6.2North CarolinaACC5.3111358132154
242.1North Carolina A&TMEAC32.9134178200220242265285307343
275.5North Carolina CentralMEAC29.8150216236255276298314329351
113.2North Carolina St.ACC31.225567390112135155176220
256.1North DakotaBSky34.1122184211234258280300316343
150.6North Dakota St.Sum38.94479100123150177202229307
221.5North FloridaASun36.993147173196222247268292333
214.0North TexasCUSA36.576139166190215239260283324
109.3NortheasternCAA34.527526784106132157185276
302.2Northern ArizonaBSky25.1169244267287306321331339348
160.5Northern ColoradoBSky38.24288111133160187211235302
220.5Northern IllinoisMAC35.977145174197222246265285326
43.0Northern IowaMVC20.1514212940547092172
86.7Northern KentuckyHorz24.83449586883102120144207
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
83.8NorthwesternB1029.51336486281102123149223
319.1Northwestern St.Slnd21.7199264289308324336342346351
52.9Notre DameACC20.77202938506580101153
129.4OaklandHorz33.6427087105127152173201263
143.3OhioMAC38.0387494116142169194220302
54.8Ohio St.B1021.63213039526784105156
26.2OklahomaB1215.21591524344763113
78.8Oklahoma St.B1228.2133145587697117141187
74.9Old DominionCUSA22.8233948587288105128188
218.2Oral RobertsSum33.375150174196220242260280323
47.1OregonP1219.1617253345587392179
157.5Oregon St.P1233.64290113134158181201221263
208.4PacificWCC30.285148168188209229247265309
138.6PennIvy33.0377996115137161183205267
73.0Penn St.B1026.2123142547089109133180
277.4PepperdineWCC27.1155220241260280297311323339
172.6PittsburghACC25.571116139156174191204217241
280.9PortlandWCC27.0162223244264283301314326342
106.2Portland St.BSky29.538587085103125146172237
213.3Prairie View A&MSWAC32.796151171191213235256279323
316.2PresbyterianBSth20.8192265288305321332338344350
186.8PrincetonIvy36.167116140162187212234257306
72.5ProvidenceBE26.3102941537089109130197
11.1PurdueB106.913461014202980
317.9QuinnipiacMAAC20.3183268290307322333340344350
178.9RadfordBSth37.660105131153179205227252311
29.7Rhode IslandA1015.339131927385066127
305.4RiceCUSA22.7196252274292309323331338349
253.5RichmondA1028.1138195216236255274288304328
139.9RiderMAAC34.8447896115138163186213298
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
161.3Robert MorrisNEC34.66998116137160185207231299
135.7RutgersB1034.8356990111135160181203247
294.8Sacramento St.BSky28.6149229255277299317328337349
300.2Sacred HeartNEC26.3181241264283304320331339348
172.7Saint Joseph'sA1036.941100125147173198220245300
211.4Saint LouisA1034.187141167189213236254276319
56.8Saint Mary'sWCC18.616283543546782100151
223.4Saint Peter'sMAAC37.282149175199224249271294331
231.4Sam Houston St.Slnd39.291151179206232259281304339
275.2SamfordSC31.8147209233253277299315329345
110.2San DiegoWCC28.728617589108129149171229
70.8San Diego St.MWC24.8103142536885104127190
159.4San FranciscoWCC36.35090112134159184207232274
306.0San Jose St.MWC21.3203256276293310322330337346
274.3Santa ClaraWCC28.6114213237256276295310322339
284.1Savannah St.MEAC29.6155220244264287306321333346
199.4SeattleWAC38.957121148173200227248273326
21.3Seton HallBE12.1148121928375195
258.6SienaMAAC32.4124191216237260281300317341
287.4SIU EdwardsvilleOVC26.3162229252271290307319329343
40.1SMUAmer17.0514202838506380131
256.8South AlabamaSB34.1120186212234259282300316338
62.0South CarolinaSEC24.84223344597796119174
335.3South Carolina St.MEAC14.0216297317330340345348350351
93.5South DakotaSum26.23753637490109129153215
105.8South Dakota St.Sum30.731566983103125147173259
279.0South FloridaAmer22.4182230249265281295306317335
225.5Southeast Missouri St.OVC35.091155179202226250271292339
252.6Southeastern LouisianaSlnd34.4113182208230254277297315345
297.7SouthernSWAC29.0182232257279302320332341351
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
164.8Southern IllinoisMVC38.84287114138166192215237288
230.1Southern MissCUSA35.088157184207232255274294331
204.7Southern UtahBSky40.954122151176206234257280329
53.4St. BonaventureA1019.78233139506480100153
304.8St. Francis NYNEC27.1157243267289309326336343350
160.7St. Francis PANEC38.25290111133160187210238299
43.8St. John'sBE19.8113212941557190139
163.4StanfordP1232.55499120141164186205225272
111.5Stephen F. AustinSlnd31.537607388108132154180265
299.8StetsonASun24.3182245266284303318329337351
190.1Stony BrookAE34.768122145167190213235258310
34.1SyracuseACC17.118142232445774136
21.4TCUB1213.21371119293953109
39.1TempleAmer17.0412192737496179132
24.8TennesseeSEC14.21591422334459105
281.3Tennessee MartinOVC31.3156215239261284305320333346
204.1Tennessee St.OVC35.966131157180205229250273319
172.3Tennessee TechOVC38.74395121146173199222248303
45.9TexasB1220.4214223143587394153
8.3Texas A&MSEC6.71124611172654
287.2Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd35.0132210239264291314330341349
187.1Texas SouthernSWAC29.998133149166186207226249308
252.6Texas St.SB34.0116182208230254277296314344
34.8Texas TechB1217.719142232455977132
307.4The CitadelSC22.2190254277295312324332338348
157.8ToledoMAC38.04285109131157184207233288
49.5TowsonCAA19.11222283647607595172
199.7TroySB36.966125152175201225247270321
127.6TulaneAmer34.4326483103127152173196257
127.0TulsaAmer33.0356784103126150171194264
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
122.1UABCUSA33.337658198119144167193282
98.5UC DavisBW31.52948607595118141169243
183.0UC IrvineBW36.463112136158183208230253301
277.2UC RiversideBW31.7150208235256280302316329346
88.7UC Santa BarbaraBW27.62346566885105126153244
90.0UCFAmer27.41843567088107127149204
66.6UCLAP1226.072536486382102127193
283.0UMass LowellAE30.8159217241263286306321333346
205.8UMBCAE35.373134159182206230250273328
242.1UMKCWAC30.3128180203222243263281298328
133.4UNC AshevilleBSth34.7467290108131156180206265
88.9UNC GreensboroSC27.33146576985105126153224
243.3UNC WilmingtonCAA37.489163194219245270291310338
59.2UNLVMWC20.213283645577186106175
40.7USCP1218.8413202737516685163
320.8USC UpstateASun20.2202271293310325336342346350
71.2UT ArlingtonSB23.4193644546884103127186
226.2UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC29.399165188208227246263279317
58.2UtahP1224.35213041557291115178
159.4Utah St.MWC33.45093115136159183203223267
119.6Utah ValleyWAC35.029587594117143166194260
246.6UTEPCUSA33.6108177203224248271289308338
192.1UTSACUSA37.965117143166193219241265315
88.4ValparaisoMVC31.71738506584108132159246
145.6VanderbiltSEC32.04082104124146168187206258
105.1VCUA1030.232546883102125146171256
70.3VermontAE18.929414957678196115165
2.2VillanovaBE2.01111134827
7.5VirginiaACC6.11123610162460
46.2Virginia TechACC20.2415233143587493143
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
302.4VMISC24.9187245268287306321331339348
154.8WagnerNEC38.55185106127153181207232296
111.2Wake ForestACC30.727577289110132152175232
109.6WashingtonP1232.617536986108131153177252
147.9Washington St.P1234.73280103124148172193215262
213.8Weber St.BSky39.277135162188214241264287338
17.5West VirginiaB1211.313691523334696
268.2Western CarolinaSC30.2131204228249270291306319343
234.9Western IllinoisSum40.276152182209237263286307338
57.9Western KentuckyCUSA21.613253342557087109169
127.2Western MichiganMAC36.0326381101125151176201272
14.1Wichita St.Amer7.814681218243364
160.4William & MaryCAA40.33582107133161189213237289
179.5WinthropBSth36.965108131154179205228252315
113.6WisconsinB1029.731597692113134153173217
210.3WoffordSC37.168133162186211236257281342
175.9Wright St.Horz36.261107129151175201223246316
117.6WyomingMWC33.326587694116140163186240
7.7XavierBE6.11123610152454
156.9YaleIvy34.65592112133156181202226276
336.5Youngstown St.Horz11.8256305321332340345347349351