live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are projections for the end-of-season RPIs for all D1 basketball teams.


How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
7880.7DavidsonA100.55530.56035111-816-120-31-42-38-25-17-335406020.70.9
1414.6DaytonA100.62210.56324618-324-61-14-16-18-15-110-272113.60.5
100101.9DuquesneA100.54110.53059814-718-120-31-32-47-28-09-3110259929.90.4
182177.6FordhamA100.49570.497115911-815-130-20-31-34-410-18-21743431707.60.3
187186.5George MasonA100.49050.5429758-1411-200-30-31-56-64-36-719013316422.51.3
5252.6George WashingtonA100.57690.529410017-522-91-22-24-28-37-011-254215511.60.1
264259.5La SalleA100.44760.5464694-156-221-40-30-52-63-43-728516423425.51.4
193191.8MassachusettsA100.48760.5297999-1212-180-20-41-53-67-27-51732091829.80.5
104105.0Rhode IslandA100.53890.54088112-1017-141-30-42-27-38-18-5125116119-14.0-0.7
109113.1RichmondA100.53410.54197711-1016-141-31-32-46-36-08-4106144131-17.9-0.8
3238.4Saint Joseph'sA100.58890.53599018-424-70-31-25-111-18-011-23295371.40.1
198197.4Saint LouisA100.48390.5506648-1310-200-41-42-43-75-25-722712818710.40.6
4950.1St. BonaventureA100.57870.54187914-620-90-21-23-38-27-08-377158455.10.3
2729.7VCUA100.59810.54666817-524-71-22-26-310-16-08-51096533-3.3-0.3
231230.7Boston CollegeACC0.46360.5524597-158-230-70-40-63-45-27-624127220723.71.6
8790.8ClemsonACC0.54800.53079714-819-113-32-12-44-27-27-52633367515.80.8
2020.4DukeACC0.61110.5946516-622-93-52-26-27-03-011-210925-4.6-0.6
5151.1Florida St.ACC0.57800.56214915-719-113-52-23-36-16-010-2491943813.10.8
8182.5Georgia TechACC0.55350.57801912-1016-152-61-33-36-25-010-36190766.50.4
1515.9LouisvilleACC0.61950.56624018-424-73-43-14-17-07-011-24219219-3.1-0.5
1214.5Miami FLACC0.62240.57652217-423-74-34-15-26-24-011-1188615-0.5-0.1
99.3North CarolinaACC0.63360.56893519-325-63-33-17-07-15-011-2137390.30.1
110113.3North Carolina St.ACC0.53400.56414212-1115-162-51-42-46-25-010-39016210013.30.7
4647.9Notre DameACC0.58100.57073015-719-113-41-32-36-17-09-352553611.90.8
3139.0PittsburghACC0.58970.56404416-420-92-52-15-26-16-010-146182318.00.5
4850.0SyracuseACC0.57880.56993216-819-122-53-23-35-16-110-3551004010.00.7
78.2VirginiaACC0.63690.58681118-423-76-23-14-26-14-011-134780.20.0
140138.4Virginia TechACC0.51960.55485512-1115-161-80-43-24-17-18-52102621308.40.4
120120.9Wake ForestACC0.52940.57392610-1213-170-71-33-44-34-09-356688931.91.8
9496.7AlbanyAE0.54400.456527817-623-70-10-21-14-117-310-484271104-7.3-0.5
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
308303.6BinghamtonAE0.41970.47562265-178-210-10-20-30-67-93-10297217306-2.4-0.2
317313.8HartfordAE0.41250.45972686-178-220-10-20-30-58-114-10309294322-8.2-0.8
292289.8MaineAE0.42910.45013008-1410-190-00-21-10-69-94-93213252836.80.4
205205.8New HampshireAE0.47860.453128510-914-130-10-20-20-313-55-621331019510.80.5
4446.4Stony BrookAE0.58170.481120816-422-50-00-13-15-214-07-4398561-14.6-1.7
275273.8UMass LowellAE0.43950.46462557-149-190-00-30-22-57-93-92942782676.80.4
327324.2UMBCAE0.40200.45122925-198-230-00-10-20-87-114-11323319335-10.8-1.0
149144.3VermontAE0.51630.481920313-1018-120-20-21-43-314-27-7122134156-11.7-0.7
4042.4CincinnatiAmer0.58530.54197617-623-81-32-13-36-110-010-37515367-24.6-2.0
3338.4ConnecticutAmer0.58890.55325716-622-91-21-24-37-18-010-3649448-9.6-0.8
190188.9East CarolinaAmer0.48920.525210610-1213-180-20-32-72-39-28-513420116820.91.1
9799.3HoustonAmer0.54250.507013816-620-101-10-33-35-210-110-2130330106-6.7-0.3
125126.4MemphisAmer0.52670.527610413-918-130-30-33-36-39-19-4158191135-8.6-0.4
1112.5SMUAmer0.62590.54437319-226-40-04-16-28-18-012-0672102.50.4
244247.0South FloridaAmer0.45450.5473675-196-250-30-41-62-73-53-102839623017.01.2
8991.3TempleAmer0.54750.54058213-818-121-32-22-33-39-16-61711327219.31.0
239239.5TulaneAmer0.45870.51741248-1610-210-30-21-52-78-37-6222273250-10.5-0.6
7274.0TulsaAmer0.55980.55036514-818-121-22-32-47-37-08-494107695.00.3
191189.6UCFAmer0.48850.502314911-914-150-10-31-63-310-26-52543241845.60.3
221225.5Florida Gulf CoastASun0.46700.46352589-1113-130-20-10-12-511-55-7199121228-2.5-0.1
249250.3JacksonvilleASun0.45260.430233510-1113-140-10-10-11-512-64-93103212482.30.1
289287.2Kennesaw St.ASun0.43100.49601615-177-210-20-10-41-66-72-12251252798.20.4
286281.9LipscombASun0.43440.48641865-188-210-00-20-41-67-82-1325964286-4.1-0.2
194192.4NJITASun0.48710.460626412-1116-130-10-20-31-415-48-71271591911.40.1
131129.6North FloridaASun0.52490.448330515-719-90-20-10-23-116-38-6111226139-9.4-0.5
302299.3StetsonASun0.42250.45612805-158-190-10-00-11-77-93-1029122526930.31.7
323320.6USC UpstateASun0.40570.45692775-167-200-10-00-12-75-113-102932143173.60.3
159158.8IllinoisB100.50770.54507211-1214-171-50-42-43-48-08-514010814117.81.1
2931.2IndianaB100.59650.53918419-424-72-31-04-17-29-010-38921344-12.8-1.1
57.3IowaB100.63800.57921718-424-64-33-23-17-07-09-3477761.30.3
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
88.3MarylandB100.63610.56973320-325-52-42-16-08-07-011-188171.30.3
3741.1MichiganB100.58690.56224816-620-103-71-21-17-08-09-373130392.10.1
1819.2Michigan St.B100.61280.54896619-425-64-32-14-17-18-013-0410420-0.8-0.1
235237.3MinnesotaB100.45980.5418786-178-220-50-41-42-85-16-623420022314.30.9
152148.5NebraskaB100.51380.529010112-1116-151-70-31-34-29-18-5214286159-10.5-0.6
111114.6NorthwesternB100.53310.510312916-820-110-60-11-17-311-012-1883331059.60.5
9697.8Ohio St.B100.54320.56404314-1017-141-71-21-27-37-08-5137718611.80.7
148143.9Penn St.B100.51640.55206111-1214-170-60-31-37-46-09-411623011132.91.8
1314.5PurdueB100.62220.57242819-424-73-43-14-18-16-012-1128023-8.5-1.3
280278.9RutgersB100.43650.5342925-176-240-50-30-51-85-25-727323923147.93.2
6161.5WisconsinB100.56950.58751014-917-142-72-13-16-34-18-510043592.50.2
2327.5BaylorB120.60170.5878916-520-103-82-14-17-05-010-22583261.50.1
1719.2Iowa St.B120.61340.5905716-621-104-63-24-17-13-011-21656127.20.9
46.1KansasB120.64300.5974317-423-75-54-16-05-13-011-153342.10.4
7173.3Kansas St.B120.56040.57622313-917-141-101-22-17-16-011-2371565815.30.8
12.4OklahomaB120.65780.58631219-225-55-33-16-09-03-012-027411.40.6
138134.1Oklahoma St.B120.52190.55965211-1114-172-81-32-35-15-19-4176285138-3.9-0.2
175175.8TCUB120.49720.55885410-1212-191-101-31-43-26-09-418028916114.80.9
2527.9TexasB120.60110.6067115-719-125-62-24-24-13-09-45010189.90.9
6261.9Texas TechB120.56900.5947413-816-141-92-22-27-14-010-219494912.90.8
1010.3West VirginiaB120.63100.57851818-424-74-52-15-07-05-011-23013613-2.7-0.5
5554.1ButlerBE0.57550.55166215-720-102-41-24-26-17-011-13421663-8.9-0.6
9092.6CreightonBE0.54700.54038314-918-131-51-33-37-17-19-416129297-4.4-0.3
164165.8DePaulBE0.50350.5589538-1410-200-41-41-82-36-16-619222014916.81.0
6969.4GeorgetownBE0.56340.58381313-1017-141-51-44-34-36-07-61153673-3.6-0.3
115119.8MarquetteBE0.53010.53758915-818-130-52-24-53-29-011-212029110712.80.7
3841.3ProvidenceBE0.58630.55236018-522-92-32-15-26-28-012-1291892912.31.0
5452.9Seton HallBE0.57640.54567016-621-91-42-14-36-18-010-2762654210.90.7
220224.6St. John'sBE0.46710.5659416-167-230-51-51-71-64-16-621616119826.61.8
24.4VillanovaBE0.64650.57742019-326-52-34-18-17-06-011-2114122.40.9
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
67.5XavierBE0.63770.57023120-225-53-24-16-28-05-012-016152.50.6
214216.9Eastern WashingtonBSky0.47210.432732910-1015-130-00-10-11-414-84-6209284229-12.1-0.5
206207.7IdahoBSky0.47730.441831412-917-120-10-10-14-313-76-5159208209-1.3-0.1
290286.8Idaho St.BSky0.43060.42463398-1112-160-10-00-01-611-93-7312334290-3.2-0.1
153154.0MontanaBSky0.51070.459526910-816-100-10-11-11-314-42-6194321459.00.4
271270.1Montana St.BSky0.44140.44273128-1312-170-00-10-22-710-74-7197206272-1.9-0.1
226226.9North DakotaBSky0.46620.46012658-1012-140-00-00-22-610-52-6288260252-25.1-1.1
331329.5Northern ArizonaBSky0.39640.49151721-183-240-00-20-30-83-110-926653290.50.0
307303.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.42000.46532506-148-200-10-10-11-77-101-9347253310-7.0-0.4
272272.5Portland St.BSky0.43970.45102956-1211-160-00-00-11-810-82-7339335285-12.5-0.5
236238.2Sacramento St.BSky0.45940.44863048-1013-140-00-01-13-410-95-4208316244-5.8-0.2
336333.3Southern UtahBSky0.39130.45892713-164-230-10-20-10-74-131-8313221334-0.7-0.1
127127.3Weber St.BSky0.52590.450729713-620-80-01-10-13-216-45-5126119146-18.7-0.9
329326.1CampbellBSth0.39990.43303276-148-180-00-00-13-75-104-4280347336-9.9-0.9
266264.2Charleston SouthernBSth0.44490.49041775-158-180-10-20-21-106-31-72461625311.20.6
167167.0Coastal CarolinaBSth0.50280.470923511-814-110-00-01-17-67-43-4172173185-18.0-0.8
208208.9Gardner WebbBSth0.47660.46272619-1213-140-10-10-24-69-42-72191272008.90.5
179176.9High PointBSth0.49660.446031011-816-100-00-10-24-412-24-4191282192-15.1-0.7
279278.4LibertyBSth0.43660.47072377-159-190-10-20-14-75-80-10345188287-8.6-0.5
330326.4LongwoodBSth0.39960.45302864-176-220-00-00-02-124-101-9342302331-4.6-0.4
334330.2PresbyterianBSth0.39450.43933185-147-190-00-00-11-106-82-6340313333-2.8-0.2
161162.2RadfordBSth0.50570.488718311-1015-130-00-12-24-79-35-593461620.20.0
142139.6UNC AshevilleBSth0.51900.462926014-818-100-10-01-15-612-25-5150140152-12.4-0.6
166165.9WinthropBSth0.50330.446630913-716-100-00-00-25-512-35-3144304172-6.1-0.3
207208.7Cal PolyBW0.47700.50771346-1310-170-20-21-62-47-44-7138522053.70.2
285280.8Cal St. FullertonBW0.43490.45992677-129-180-00-10-52-47-95-62363372764.80.2
277274.5Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.43870.48092096-148-200-10-10-52-66-83-92772612731.50.1
9397.1HawaiiBW0.54410.467824315-322-50-10-02-26-114-19-2112267103-5.9-0.3
101102.0Long Beach St.BW0.54080.5390859-1215-140-31-13-34-37-34-910519111.00.6
269266.3UC DavisBW0.44350.48431927-129-180-00-10-51-58-73-82902412633.30.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
6768.3UC IrvineBW0.56410.504614216-621-90-20-11-36-214-19-5485971-2.7-0.2
247249.3UC RiversideBW0.45300.453828411-1213-170-00-01-42-610-77-7250340257-7.7-0.4
129127.9UC Santa BarbaraBW0.52570.52151158-1214-140-10-22-62-39-25-77189631.91.7
99101.0College of CharlestonCAA0.54160.519411913-817-110-10-24-46-37-17-3821788714.00.7
276274.6DelawareCAA0.43870.50531395-177-220-10-20-81-96-25-620230126113.60.8
267265.5DrexelCAA0.44410.5353913-185-230-00-41-71-93-22-826411824124.51.3
124125.9ElonCAA0.52680.523211212-1015-140-10-32-64-39-17-4851481187.90.4
7071.0HofstraCAA0.56230.526310515-719-100-02-22-56-39-07-47912378-7.0-0.5
8485.9James MadisonCAA0.55110.518512216-721-90-11-13-310-37-19-395165102-16.1-1.1
143140.8NortheasternCAA0.51840.524310811-1215-151-11-22-54-56-37-599143143-2.2-0.1
169166.9TowsonCAA0.50240.477321914-817-120-01-12-53-510-27-4247350178-11.1-0.6
6566.2UNC WilmingtonCAA0.56570.507113715-519-80-01-14-26-58-06-311928883-16.8-1.0
3942.1William & MaryCAA0.58580.53838714-619-80-20-04-39-25-16-328373012.10.9
232231.6CharlotteCUSA0.46350.48222028-1413-180-10-20-54-69-44-925317721120.61.0
227227.1FIUCUSA0.46600.47052389-1213-160-00-01-42-710-64-7271276246-18.9-0.9
278275.8Florida AtlanticCUSA0.43780.48561905-168-210-10-11-51-77-81-10317199280-4.2-0.2
114118.4Louisiana TechCUSA0.53130.456927615-521-80-00-02-14-414-39-244211134-15.6-0.7
137132.8MarshallCUSA0.52270.528210211-1216-150-20-11-55-510-24-918217150-17.2-0.8
7578.9Middle TennesseeCUSA0.55630.507113614-619-90-00-11-28-410-16-4683081-2.1-0.1
314309.5North TexasCUSA0.41490.47322306-149-200-00-00-31-107-83-8322247320-10.5-0.7
150145.3Old DominionCUSA0.51600.483419712-1019-120-20-21-34-414-27-6155126160-14.7-0.8
298297.4RiceCUSA0.42390.48282015-158-210-00-11-42-86-93-82651692961.40.1
294290.3Southern MissCUSA0.42870.46152636-129-180-00-00-32-76-82-7304246293-2.7-0.1
9293.2UABCUSA0.54630.460126618-423-70-00-02-16-515-19-314831799-5.8-0.3
240244.6UTEPCUSA0.45590.457627411-1115-150-00-00-24-711-67-5212258258-13.4-0.6
343340.4UTSACUSA0.38000.46232623-184-250-00-10-40-74-131-10344296341-0.6-0.1
165165.5Western KentuckyCUSA0.50340.518312310-1114-150-21-02-44-47-56-59234176-10.5-0.5
273273.2Cleveland St.Horz0.43970.50951315-177-220-10-31-21-115-53-817514275-1.8-0.1
210213.2DetroitHorz0.47450.48601879-1112-150-00-30-15-87-24-5170109218-4.8-0.2
157156.5Green BayHorz0.50890.470923612-917-120-01-20-34-612-26-51392441551.50.1
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
348347.2Illinois ChicagoHorz0.36210.46502511-182-250-00-20-10-132-100-9350332348-0.8-0.3
158158.6MilwaukeeHorz0.50790.465624913-818-110-00-21-13-613-17-41472681571.60.1
259257.2Northern KentuckyHorz0.44900.48701856-149-180-20-20-12-87-52-7274135266-8.8-0.4
113117.7OaklandHorz0.53130.475922516-821-100-20-21-17-312-38-596205133-15.3-1.0
3035.6ValparaisoHorz0.59090.494616517-424-50-10-03-19-311-08-31544341.60.2
168166.7Wright St.Horz0.50280.479521212-1016-130-21-10-15-69-44-72402021588.70.4
254253.4Youngstown St.Horz0.45080.48431937-1510-190-10-30-12-87-53-824417221637.42.1
296295.6BrownIvy0.42470.47182325-128-190-10-20-51-57-74-9318314307-11.4-0.5
132129.1ColumbiaIvy0.52490.483219913-619-100-00-21-35-213-29-61672401236.10.3
195193.7CornellIvy0.48600.49751568-912-150-00-31-51-39-46-716516315439.71.8
284279.6DartmouthIvy0.43540.47322296-119-180-00-10-41-77-55-8286306305-25.4-1.1
188189.0HarvardIvy0.48930.50361467-1112-160-21-21-23-57-56-8169131202-13.0-0.6
295294.7PennIvy0.42540.46742445-119-180-10-20-41-57-55-8303323309-14.3-0.6
6060.8PrincetonIvy0.57020.503014711-520-70-20-21-25-114-09-4418864-3.2-0.2
6363.9YaleIvy0.56770.492217112-520-70-30-11-16-212-18-58117579-15.1-0.9
213215.4CanisiusMAAC0.47270.476722210-1314-170-01-10-44-510-65-62012312132.40.1
177176.3FairfieldMAAC0.49700.485519112-1016-140-10-20-33-312-56-4107114177-0.7-0.0
144140.8IonaMAAC0.51830.490717512-917-120-00-31-43-313-23-622197167-26.2-1.2
218221.3ManhattanMAAC0.46970.48581889-1112-160-01-21-13-77-63-62301602201.30.1
322319.1MaristMAAC0.40730.47172334-176-230-00-20-31-75-113-6281280326-6.9-0.6
4242.9MonmouthMAAC0.58460.495516318-525-61-21-04-06-114-38-317482814.91.4
304301.6NiagaraMAAC0.42110.47812176-178-230-00-30-31-77-102-93242482992.60.2
268266.0QuinnipiacMAAC0.44370.46932428-1311-180-00-20-32-59-83-6298293278-12.0-0.6
222225.8RiderMAAC0.46670.47722209-1413-180-10-20-32-510-74-7225235249-23.2-1.2
224226.3Saint Peter'sMAAC0.46640.47702218-1212-160-00-31-32-49-72-7328254237-10.7-0.5
8689.9SienaMAAC0.54870.494416615-821-100-11-22-16-313-37-4365490-0.1-0.0
3439.3AkronMAC0.58830.508813317-424-60-10-03-112-48-010-25724957-17.7-1.3
163162.6Ball St.MAC0.50500.485718913-817-130-01-10-38-79-28-4193322166-3.4-0.1
186186.8Bowling GreenMAC0.49060.489018111-914-150-00-21-34-79-27-4203342212-25.2-1.3
9193.2BuffaloMAC0.54630.53299412-917-130-30-31-29-57-16-613387885.20.2
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
116120.6Central MichiganMAC0.53000.53419310-915-130-01-21-37-95-04-619584129-8.4-0.3
145141.2Eastern MichiganMAC0.51810.5414807-1112-150-20-12-27-103-14-59842147-5.8-0.2
103104.7Kent St.MAC0.53920.509413214-719-110-10-21-28-69-08-41082279311.70.5
237238.7Miami OHMAC0.45930.5378886-159-210-20-10-56-112-35-7211932380.70.0
135130.8Northern IllinoisMAC0.52400.493816712-616-110-00-11-29-56-27-2151345132-1.2-0.0
112117.9OhioMAC0.53160.521711412-817-120-00-21-48-58-18-3871811107.90.3
162161.8ToledoMAC0.50570.483120012-917-130-01-01-36-710-28-4187328173-11.2-0.5
197196.9Western MichiganMAC0.48470.5326957-1311-180-00-11-66-104-14-7198791960.90.0
312308.3Bethune CookmanMEAC0.41550.42413406-1510-190-10-10-10-410-121-12316229315-6.7-0.4
324322.1Coppin St.MEAC0.40360.45112943-166-200-20-10-20-46-100-112952731111.10.8
349346.9Delaware St.MEAC0.36090.43413252-184-250-10-10-20-64-150-13346197347-0.1-0.0
350348.4Florida A&MMEAC0.35420.40153504-156-190-00-00-10-36-152-9337303349-0.6-0.2
196196.1HamptonMEAC0.48480.426933612-817-100-10-20-21-216-44-71781461897.10.4
283278.4HowardMEAC0.43600.43783218-1212-160-11-00-11-610-84-9256195297-18.6-0.8
282278.2Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.43610.45612796-1610-190-20-20-20-59-92-12243672771.20.1
325321.9Morgan St.MEAC0.40340.43683234-158-200-10-10-00-68-121-11308155338-16.1-1.0
219222.1Norfolk St.MEAC0.46890.45052988-1314-150-00-10-41-513-42-1123375226-3.9-0.2
344340.4North Carolina A&TMEAC0.37880.41453476-179-210-20-00-10-59-123-11329257343-2.6-0.4
315309.6North Carolina CentralMEAC0.41460.42373415-1410-160-00-00-20-610-92-9296186325-15.4-0.9
341337.3Savannah St.MEAC0.38330.41223496-139-170-20-10-00-29-123-72822283370.30.0
217218.5South Carolina St.MEAC0.47110.425933810-1115-130-00-10-31-314-53-92181452108.50.4
318314.0BradleyMVC0.41240.52001182-213-270-20-20-41-112-71-113117830113.01.5
299298.2DrakeMVC0.42380.49071765-177-220-20-10-32-115-64-7276270308-9.8-0.6
7374.5EvansvilleMVC0.55920.488718217-623-70-10-22-17-313-110-26022385-10.5-0.8
151148.0Illinois St.MVC0.51390.527710312-1114-160-20-30-45-59-15-7145201426.00.4
136132.3Indiana St.MVC0.52300.509913012-1016-130-10-22-36-48-35-61649912210.30.5
261258.1Loyola ChicagoMVC0.44850.48032119-1311-180-10-21-34-87-46-5248305264-5.9-0.3
230230.2Missouri St.MVC0.46390.49791549-1311-180-10-30-45-85-33-82992342273.20.2
118120.4Northern IowaMVC0.52970.521111712-1116-142-10-22-35-57-37-56735127-6.6-0.3
126125.9Southern IllinoisMVC0.52650.464125718-623-80-10-11-28-214-211-213233811510.90.6
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
2830.3Wichita St.MVC0.59660.524011116-522-61-20-13-29-19-05-59112273.30.4
243247.5Air ForceMWC0.45450.49951529-1210-190-00-11-53-106-37-411319622225.51.4
7679.2Boise St.MWC0.55610.521211614-719-101-20-22-37-39-07-48610184-4.8-0.3
189188.6Colorado St.MWC0.48920.497715510-1014-150-00-21-55-58-26-5205250190-1.4-0.1
141138.4Fresno St.MWC0.51940.505014012-817-120-10-11-47-39-27-41311981371.40.1
133129.6NevadaMWC0.52440.504514411-816-120-00-11-56-49-26-412425111217.60.7
8589.8New MexicoMWC0.54870.522311314-820-110-20-13-210-56-27-6163122108-18.2-1.0
5754.9San Diego St.MWC0.57470.53888615-621-80-30-14-311-15-15-614328531.90.1
300299.0San Jose St.MWC0.42320.50081505-156-210-00-10-53-92-62-7333298302-3.0-0.2
106110.4UNLVMWC0.53570.524011011-1017-121-11-22-45-48-17-497117125-14.6-0.7
154154.3Utah St.MWC0.51040.51851209-1013-140-10-20-65-48-16-3781121486.30.3
192190.8WyomingMWC0.48780.52401099-1312-170-00-12-46-84-35-6156631819.80.5
319313.1BryantNEC0.41220.45412836-178-220-10-20-31-38-132-10279147318-4.9-0.4
351350.3Central ConnecticutNEC0.34480.41683453-194-250-00-10-10-34-201-10351344351-0.7-0.6
212213.9Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.47360.440731611-1015-130-10-00-12-213-83-72422072049.90.5
274273.2LIU BrooklynNEC0.43950.413834811-1115-140-00-00-02-313-116-5228339288-14.8-0.8
223225.9Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.46660.452528810-1415-160-10-10-31-413-83-10275168251-25.1-1.2
309305.0Robert MorrisNEC0.41870.45202906-189-220-00-10-21-69-122-11305183319-14.0-0.9
287283.9Sacred HeartNEC0.43330.44253137-1510-190-00-10-21-49-121-10332238284-0.1-0.0
291289.8St. Francis NYNEC0.42910.43033348-1512-180-10-00-10-512-113-9301300295-5.2-0.3
238239.4St. Francis PANEC0.45880.447530810-1114-140-10-10-21-313-73-72321412327.40.3
199198.0WagnerNEC0.48360.422334213-818-100-00-10-11-117-76-4153295215-17.0-1.0
252252.7Austin PeayOVC0.45150.47032398-1511-180-00-10-41-710-55-81791382475.70.3
6668.0BelmontOVC0.56440.493217016-720-90-01-11-46-213-17-68011382-14.0-1.0
251251.4Eastern IllinoisOVC0.45170.45932708-1312-150-00-10-23-79-52-932522424011.40.5
216216.8Eastern KentuckyOVC0.47200.475022712-1214-160-20-10-33-710-48-6160252235-18.2-1.0
303300.4Jacksonville St.OVC0.42230.48052106-177-220-00-10-52-86-82-11341269321-20.6-1.5
155155.4Morehead St.OVC0.50960.487618411-1015-120-10-11-34-510-35-6166167175-19.6-0.9
170170.9Murray St.OVC0.50050.489418010-1114-130-00-01-43-610-34-7149111637.90.4
313309.5SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.41520.48381954-186-220-10-10-42-85-93-9226573009.50.6
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
332329.8Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.39610.46692473-184-230-10-00-30-84-111-103192033245.80.6
246248.6Tennessee MartinOVC0.45350.432732810-1214-150-00-01-23-59-86-723532923612.60.6
178176.4Tennessee St.OVC0.49680.450329913-716-110-00-01-42-514-27-4185341180-3.6-0.2
105107.6Tennessee TechOVC0.53750.481420514-718-90-10-11-24-312-36-5136193109-1.4-0.1
2628.7ArizonaP120.59960.54517118-524-71-33-29-25-06-012-14023735-6.3-0.6
8283.1Arizona St.P120.55320.58251512-1116-151-51-45-56-12-110-32422803.10.2
4749.2CaliforniaP120.58010.57422514-819-122-43-35-45-14-010-366110436.20.3
3640.5ColoradoP120.58760.56334516-620-101-52-25-26-05-010-2511542218.51.3
35.8OregonP120.64350.5917618-423-73-15-28-35-13-010-292332.80.6
6465.1Oregon St.P120.56700.58231612-815-133-42-43-44-14-08-2451035510.10.6
7780.5StanfordP120.55540.5988210-913-151-72-54-33-13-06-4101266614.50.7
6868.7UCLAP120.56380.5896813-1017-142-63-35-34-23-09-4592170-1.3-0.1
1920.0USCP120.61260.57522418-523-82-34-27-34-05-011-22762164.00.4
2427.5UtahP120.60150.57692116-621-92-44-28-33-04-010-220531710.50.9
5959.4WashingtonP120.57130.56953415-719-112-42-45-24-25-08-4141139527.40.5
181177.2Washington St.P120.49620.5734278-1310-190-60-53-61-25-17-41421371698.20.4
258256.6AmericanPat0.44900.47892137-159-200-00-10-23-67-112-923710624511.60.6
209210.4ArmyPat0.47590.441731512-1016-130-01-00-11-514-68-3121308219-8.6-0.5
201198.8Boston UniversityPat0.48310.452828712-1116-140-10-01-02-613-66-6188275199-0.2-0.0
172175.2BucknellPat0.49780.470024011-1016-120-00-00-23-613-42-8260166186-10.8-0.6
234233.8ColgatePat0.46210.45772739-1212-160-00-10-24-69-73-72392562330.80.0
288285.4Holy CrossPat0.43220.44823069-1312-170-10-00-13-59-105-62382992823.40.2
316311.2LafayettePat0.41380.46602485-167-210-10-10-11-66-123-8269232313-1.8-0.1
225226.7LehighPat0.46630.50011516-1410-170-20-10-21-69-71-925724242-15.3-0.7
242244.7Loyola MDPat0.45560.48991797-1510-190-10-10-21-99-61-1025850262-17.3-0.8
174175.0NavyPat0.49780.449030215-820-100-20-01-13-316-58-41572811741.00.1
255253.8Appalachian St.SB0.45060.50231486-169-220-10-10-42-78-72-926276255-1.2-0.1
5654.5Arkansas Little RockSB0.57510.467024618-225-40-00-03-17-115-18-15328762-7.5-0.6
228228.3Arkansas St.SB0.46550.47892149-1112-170-20-11-23-47-92-73272742244.30.2
260256.4Georgia SouthernSB0.44880.47112347-1210-180-10-10-32-78-72-632031524313.40.6
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
139137.7Georgia St.SB0.52020.491217411-716-110-00-11-35-410-45-2265811423.70.9
102104.2Louisiana LafayetteSB0.53950.493316911-817-100-10-11-34-312-22-522089124-19.8-0.9
184182.5Louisiana MonroeSB0.49300.49741578-1213-160-11-11-32-59-62-722392194-11.5-0.4
250251.0South AlabamaSB0.45230.48361967-1310-190-00-10-52-67-73-623121923912.00.6
270268.9Texas St.SB0.44150.45092967-1011-160-00-10-31-710-54-3249351281-12.1-0.5
310305.3TroySB0.41840.47792184-167-220-00-10-41-76-103-62612663032.30.1
107112.0UT ArlingtonSB0.53470.469824113-721-90-00-11-25-314-38-270277120-8.0-0.4
4546.9ChattanoogaSC0.58130.478621518-324-41-10-02-08-214-19-23318547-0.1-0.0
134130.2East Tennessee St.SC0.52420.493516812-917-120-10-11-24-511-35-6117661282.20.1
160161.5FurmanSC0.50620.484019412-1016-130-11-11-13-512-54-7196152171-9.5-0.5
122122.8MercerSC0.52830.451729115-620-90-00-11-25-415-28-31183181175.80.3
241244.7SamfordSC0.45590.45252899-1313-160-10-20-12-611-67-4162320254-9.3-0.5
306302.9The CitadelSC0.42030.44793077-139-190-00-20-21-67-94-627834628913.90.9
253252.6UNC GreensboroSC0.45130.49131736-149-190-10-10-32-97-41-9315120268-15.4-0.6
335330.9VMISC0.39420.46502523-155-200-00-10-20-104-72-6267245332-1.1-0.1
245247.0Western CarolinaSC0.45430.50771355-158-200-00-30-33-85-52-820615265-18.0-0.7
203200.6WoffordSC0.48200.48341988-1313-160-10-20-32-610-42-92721871973.60.2
8385.6AlabamaSEC0.55160.56763812-916-141-62-23-35-35-09-322135629.61.7
8891.4ArkansasSEC0.54790.56264711-1117-141-31-24-57-44-07-61283194-2.6-0.1
156156.2AuburnSEC0.50900.5666399-1211-191-31-33-74-62-16-61031811343.22.0
2122.4FloridaSEC0.60870.58321415-721-102-52-25-29-14-09-4233211.40.2
7981.1GeorgiaSEC0.55500.56813712-816-130-31-34-48-33-07-47276516.10.8
2226.2KentuckySEC0.60340.56843616-622-93-32-16-38-24-010-32129242.20.2
8082.1LSUSEC0.55410.55265814-818-131-41-14-36-46-07-6204176748.10.4
130128.6MississippiSEC0.52500.511112614-817-140-30-23-47-47-010-31042909533.61.6
171172.1Mississippi St.SEC0.49940.5435749-1213-170-40-32-64-37-17-5184218179-6.9-0.3
215216.6MissouriSEC0.47210.5509638-1410-210-50-31-74-74-07-618614220313.60.8
5856.1South CarolinaSEC0.57380.510712818-323-71-21-05-38-27-012-0312833224.11.3
108113.4TennesseeSEC0.53420.56135011-1115-161-21-32-67-43-07-6123609815.40.7
1616.4Texas A&MSEC0.61840.55345618-425-63-03-26-38-15-011-21445142.40.3
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
4343.7VanderbiltSEC0.58450.57112913-919-122-62-23-28-15-08-5743854-10.3-0.7
326321.8Abilene ChristianSlnd0.40330.43203306-129-180-00-00-11-98-81-8349326330-8.2-0.5
337332.4Central ArkansasSlnd0.39120.43753223-157-210-10-10-30-56-111-929210531616.41.4
202199.0Houston BaptistSlnd0.48280.465025310-814-130-00-10-32-611-32-7287157221-22.0-0.9
173175.3Incarnate WordSlnd0.49780.45702758-714-110-20-10-22-212-52-514691193-17.7-0.7
333329.4LamarSlnd0.39570.41663466-128-180-00-00-21-78-94-4284349342-12.6-1.1
320312.2McNeese St.Slnd0.41090.43623243-138-170-10-10-32-37-80-727063120.20.0
297296.2New OrleansSlnd0.42440.41943435-1210-160-00-00-20-810-61-7307264304-7.8-0.3
340335.2Nicholls St.Slnd0.38730.46342592-184-250-10-10-41-64-121-10215432312.21.2
338333.7Northwestern St.Slnd0.38940.43793203-136-180-10-10-20-76-70-631451339-5.3-0.5
185185.7Sam Houston St.Slnd0.49110.46702459-1014-130-10-10-42-311-52-720069206-20.3-0.9
339334.5Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.38730.43073332-177-220-10-10-20-77-100-11343170340-5.5-0.5
9597.1Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.54390.458827211-519-70-10-00-26-213-13-5189151144-46.9-2.5
117120.8Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.52990.454528214-520-80-10-10-24-315-17-369210151-30.2-1.4
211213.3DenverSum0.47390.476622312-1114-150-00-10-34-79-48-5224331214-0.7-0.0
7477.3IPFWSum0.55760.496316017-620-90-10-31-18-312-19-483242770.30.0
180177.0IUPUISum0.49650.510912710-1412-180-11-12-34-96-43-1126821216512.00.6
119121.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.52940.497415813-917-110-00-21-27-48-36-6177255140-19.0-1.0
128127.6North Dakota St.Sum0.52580.481920413-817-110-11-11-24-611-28-4129312136-8.4-0.4
147143.7Oral RobertsSum0.51650.5319969-1312-160-10-22-54-56-36-6633912122.71.2
200198.6South DakotaSum0.48310.50451439-1411-180-00-20-44-108-27-613520418810.60.6
4142.5South Dakota St.Sum0.58500.504614116-521-70-00-03-211-48-19-338174411.50.1
263259.0Western IllinoisSum0.44770.49581625-137-170-10-11-32-84-44-4183307271-12.0-0.5
301298.6Alabama A&MSWAC0.42260.40013516-1112-140-00-00-11-711-63-5217309327-28.4-1.4
305301.8Alabama St.SWAC0.42050.43363265-149-190-00-10-21-88-83-715482314-12.2-0.6
311307.9Alcorn St.SWAC0.41590.43143326-129-180-00-10-10-79-90-933411529215.90.9
321317.5Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.40840.44483115-188-240-20-10-20-98-102-1224511129819.51.4
346344.2Grambling St.SWAC0.36920.43153313-156-210-00-00-10-105-100-9335124346-1.8-0.3
204206.1Jackson St.SWAC0.47890.426733710-1016-130-20-00-11-616-43-8229179217-10.9-0.5
328324.4Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.40140.44893034-197-250-00-00-40-97-120-14331102328-3.6-0.3
ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
347345.4Prairie View A&MSWAC0.36590.44063171-204-260-10-10-21-83-140-12336125350-4.6-1.0
176176.1SouthernSWAC0.49720.419034412-719-90-00-00-23-516-35-5114184183-6.9-0.4
183179.3Texas SouthernSWAC0.49520.439231910-1117-130-10-10-42-515-21-11302129201-21.7-1.2
146143.4Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.51660.449430113-718-80-00-10-22-416-17-5152279153-9.6-0.5
345343.1Chicago St.WAC0.37440.47832161-212-260-10-10-20-122-101-13338190345-1.9-0.5
98100.0Grand CanyonWAC0.54170.455228118-423-50-10-02-06-215-212-265222101-1.0-0.1
123123.7New Mexico St.WAC0.52780.471923114-819-90-10-11-34-214-27-7181171126-2.3-0.1
281278.3SeattleWAC0.43640.45112939-1111-150-00-11-31-69-64-8326297291-12.7-0.7
262259.1UMKCWAC0.44770.47622246-149-170-21-00-21-77-64-8207149274-14.9-0.6
342339.9UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.38070.46482543-174-220-10-00-20-84-111-11348263344-4.1-0.7
256255.1Utah ValleyWAC0.45000.47382287-139-170-10-20-31-68-63-9252180260-4.9-0.3
5352.5BYUWCC0.57660.513912516-722-80-12-23-15-212-28-46270502.50.2
5050.2GonzagaWCC0.57870.524610717-522-70-22-32-25-014-07-4581968-17.8-1.6
229228.8Loyola MarymountWCC0.46460.48122079-1311-170-00-40-50-211-56-416831120820.81.1
265262.7PacificWCC0.44530.51851214-156-200-10-40-40-56-70-833098270-7.3-0.3
121122.2PepperdineWCC0.52880.504114513-916-120-01-22-24-29-56-41021501166.20.3
248249.8PortlandWCC0.45300.49541649-1511-190-01-41-32-38-95-7255243259-9.2-0.5
3539.1Saint Mary'sWCC0.58800.489917817-323-40-01-13-13-116-08-14323346-6.9-0.7
293290.5San DiegoWCC0.42900.48122067-148-200-10-41-20-37-104-6300327294-3.5-0.2
233232.4San FranciscoWCC0.46300.464525611-1014-140-00-40-30-513-36-42893482257.40.4
257255.4Santa ClaraWCC0.44970.49941537-159-200-10-40-41-38-73-8306236256-0.6-0.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: rpiforecast@gmail.com