Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Click the link at the top for the simulation results that exclude conference tournament forecasts.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

NEW! Click on a team's name to see the RPI Forecast broken down by different end of season records plus Schedules, Results and Probabilities of Winning

Through games of Mar 11, 2010.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
1.0	Kansas	B12	0.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2.6	Duke	ACC	0.9	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	5	6
3.3	Kentucky	SEC	1.1	2	2	2	2	3	4	5	6	6
4.1	West Virginia	BE	1.1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	6	6
4.5	Syracuse	BE	0.8	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
6.5	Kansas St.	B12	1.5	2	3	4	6	6	8	8	9	11
7.6	Baylor	B12	1.5	2	5	6	6	8	9	10	10	12
9.1	Georgetown	BE	1.8	6	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	14
9.3	New Mexico	MWC	1.8	6	6	7	8	9	11	12	13	15
12.9	Butler	Horz	1.5	10	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	19
13.2	Purdue	B10	4.4	7	7	7	9	13	17	19	21	24
13.5	Villanova	BE	1.5	10	11	12	13	13	15	15	17	19
13.8	Texas A&M	B12	2.8	6	7	10	13	14	16	17	18	20
15.1	Wisconsin	B10	5.3	7	7	8	9	17	20	21	23	26
15.4	Tennessee	SEC	5.0	7	7	8	11	15	20	22	23	25
16.3	Temple	A10	4.7	8	9	10	11	18	20	22	23	26
16.5	Pittsburgh	BE	1.5	12	14	15	16	16	17	18	19	22
17.9	Maryland	ACC	4.9	7	8	10	13	20	22	23	24	27
18.6	Xavier	A10	5.7	8	9	10	12	21	23	25	26	28
18.7	Northern Iowa	MVC	1.5	14	16	17	18	19	20	21	21	23
19.4	Brigham Young	MWC	4.2	10	12	14	15	21	23	24	25	27
19.6	California	P10	3.1	11	14	16	17	19	22	24	25	28
21.1	Vanderbilt	SEC	4.5	8	11	13	19	23	24	25	28	32
24.7	Michigan St.	B10	4.2	10	14	19	22	25	28	29	31	33
26.3	Richmond	A10	3.8	16	19	21	24	27	28	31	34	37
26.6	Old Dominion	CAA	1.2	23	24	25	26	27	27	28	29	31
28.3	Utah St.	WAC	4.3	22	24	24	25	26	32	34	38	42
28.4	Ohio St.	B10	5.5	16	19	21	24	29	32	36	39	42
28.8	Texas	B12	1.4	23	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	34
29.7	San Diego St.	MWC	4.5	18	21	24	26	32	34	35	36	38
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
29.8	Oklahoma St.	B12	1.5	24	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
31.5	Siena	MAAC	1.2	27	29	30	31	31	32	33	34	35
34.2	Florida St.	ACC	5.9	20	23	26	29	36	39	41	43	45
34.3	Clemson	ACC	1.2	30	32	33	34	34	35	36	37	39
35.2	Texas El Paso	CUSA	4.8	25	28	30	31	33	40	41	43	46
36.2	St. Mary's	WCC	1.3	31	34	35	35	36	37	38	39	42
36.7	Gonzaga	WCC	1.4	32	34	35	36	37	38	38	39	42
38.3	Louisville	BE	1.2	34	36	37	38	38	39	40	41	43
40.3	Wake Forest	ACC	1.3	34	38	39	39	40	41	42	43	45
40.7	Rhode Island	A10	5.6	23	26	33	39	41	46	47	48	51
41.2	Georgia Tech	ACC	5.2	20	26	32	40	43	44	45	46	50
42.8	Wichita St.	MVC	1.3	40	40	41	42	43	44	45	45	48
44.6	UAB	CUSA	1.4	41	42	43	44	45	45	46	47	49
44.6	Marquette	BE	6.3	30	33	34	40	47	50	51	52	55
45.3	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	7.4	29	32	34	38	50	51	52	53	55
45.7	Missouri	B12	1.5	41	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	51
46.7	Notre Dame	BE	4.7	30	33	41	45	48	50	51	52	55
48.2	Washington	P10	6.0	37	39	40	42	49	54	56	57	60
48.6	Kent St.	MAC	1.8	43	45	46	47	49	50	51	52	54
48.6	Cornell	Ivy	1.7	43	46	47	47	49	50	51	52	54
49.6	Dayton	A10	6.8	26	32	39	47	53	54	55	56	58
50.2	Virginia Tech	ACC	4.9	30	36	46	47	50	55	56	57	59
51.3	Florida	SEC	6.0	31	35	42	50	54	55	57	58	60
52.8	Oakland	Sum	1.2	49	50	51	52	53	54	54	55	57
55.8	Murray St.	OVC	1.1	52	54	54	55	56	56	57	58	60
55.9	Mississippi	SEC	6.5	33	38	46	52	59	60	61	62	64
57.7	William & Mary	CAA	1.1	53	56	56	57	58	58	59	60	62
57.9	Memphis	CUSA	1.3	53	56	56	57	58	59	60	60	62
58.0	Nevada	WAC	5.9	45	48	50	53	58	60	68	69	72
59.7	Seton Hall	BE	1.1	56	58	58	59	60	60	61	62	64
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
61.8	Cincinnati	BE	1.1	57	60	61	61	62	63	63	64	67
62.6	Connecticut	BE	1.0	58	61	61	62	62	63	64	65	67
63.2	Tulsa	CUSA	4.7	51	53	54	64	65	66	67	67	69
63.4	Arizona St.	P10	1.1	59	61	62	63	63	64	65	65	67
64.7	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.9	62	63	64	64	65	65	66	67	68
66.6	Marshall	CUSA	0.8	64	65	66	66	67	67	68	68	70
67.3	Mississippi St.	SEC	7.4	44	50	55	65	71	73	74	75	77
67.6	New Mexico St.	WAC	4.2	49	58	60	67	69	70	71	72	75
68.5	Wofford	SC	1.1	65	67	67	68	68	69	70	71	73
70.0	South Florida	BE	1.4	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	75
71.0	Texas Tech	B12	1.3	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	73	76
72.6	Minnesota	B10	7.9	49	53	61	69	76	79	80	82	85
72.9	Northeastern	CAA	1.0	69	71	72	72	73	74	74	75	77
73.7	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.8	67	68	69	70	71	79	81	82	85
74.4	Illinois St.	MVC	0.9	72	73	73	74	74	75	75	76	78
75.9	Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.0	73	74	75	75	76	77	77	78	79
77.0	Charlotte	A10	1.2	74	75	76	76	77	78	79	80	83
77.8	Illinois	B10	4.6	52	65	73	76	78	82	83	84	86
79.3	Portland	WCC	1.5	75	77	77	78	79	80	81	82	84
79.8	Fairfield	MAAC	1.4	75	77	78	79	80	81	82	82	84
80.4	Wright St.	Horz	1.4	75	78	79	79	80	81	82	83	85
81.0	St. Louis	A10	6.6	54	66	74	76	85	86	87	87	90
82.5	St. John's	BE	0.9	78	81	81	82	82	83	84	84	86
84.2	Morehead St.	OVC	1.0	83	83	83	83	84	85	86	86	89
85.3	Weber St.	BSky	1.4	83	83	84	84	85	86	87	88	92
86.4	IUPUI	Sum	1.2	83	84	85	86	86	87	88	89	91
87.6	Iona	MAAC	1.4	83	85	86	87	88	88	89	90	93
88.0	Indiana St.	MVC	0.9	85	87	87	87	88	89	89	90	92
89.6	Missouri St.	MVC	0.8	85	88	89	89	90	90	91	91	93
89.7	Akron	MAC	6.6	75	78	80	83	91	96	97	98	100
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
91.1	College of Charleston	SC	1.0	88	90	90	90	91	92	92	93	96
92.7	North Carolina	ACC	1.4	89	91	91	92	93	94	95	96	98
93.0	South Carolina	SEC	1.1	90	91	92	92	93	94	94	95	97
94.2	Arizona	P10	1.3	90	92	93	93	94	95	96	97	99
95.8	Montana	BSky	1.1	93	94	94	95	96	96	97	98	100
96.5	Alabama	SEC	5.7	69	78	89	97	98	99	101	102	104
98.7	Harvard	Ivy	1.4	96	96	97	98	99	100	101	102	104
99.3	North Carolina St.	ACC	5.7	72	82	92	99	102	103	104	105	107
99.5	Appalachian St.	SC	1.3	96	97	98	99	99	100	101	102	104
100.0	Georgia	SEC	6.2	65	82	94	99	102	103	105	107	110
101.9	North Texas	SB	1.3	97	99	100	101	102	103	103	104	106
104.0	Bradley	MVC	1.2	100	102	103	103	104	105	105	106	108
104.0	Morgan St.	MEAC	6.7	94	96	97	99	101	111	114	116	119
104.5	Miami FL	ACC	8.0	74	86	96	97	109	111	112	113	116
105.2	UC Santa Barbara	BW	8.9	89	90	91	96	106	114	117	118	122
105.7	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.2	102	103	104	105	106	106	107	108	110
106.4	Ohio	MAC	8.6	92	93	95	97	107	115	116	118	121
107.4	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.3	103	105	106	107	107	108	109	110	112
108.4	Buffalo	MAC	1.6	103	105	106	107	108	109	110	112	115
109.8	Troy	SB	1.3	104	107	108	109	110	111	111	112	115
110.5	Duquesne	A10	1.5	103	107	108	110	111	112	112	113	115
112.0	Southern California	P10	1.4	106	109	110	111	112	113	114	114	117
112.7	Northwestern	B10	5.3	77	95	105	113	114	115	116	117	120
113.8	Creighton	MVC	1.2	109	111	112	113	114	115	115	116	119
116.1	Pacific	BW	11.6	100	102	103	105	115	129	131	132	135
117.4	Northern Colorado	BSky	1.3	113	115	116	117	117	118	119	120	123
118.4	Oklahoma	B12	1.6	112	115	116	117	118	119	120	121	125
119.6	Colorado	B12	1.9	114	116	117	118	119	121	122	124	128
120.5	Long Beach St.	BW	11.2	96	99	101	112	127	129	130	131	134
121.8	Colorado St.	MWC	2.2	113	118	119	120	122	123	125	126	128
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
122.0	Western Carolina	SC	1.5	118	119	120	121	122	123	124	125	128
122.0	East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.0	116	119	120	121	122	123	125	126	128
122.3	Boston College	ACC	2.1	115	118	119	121	122	124	125	126	128
123.3	Vermont	AE	9.0	112	114	115	116	117	134	136	137	139
124.0	Iowa St.	B12	1.9	116	120	121	123	124	125	126	127	131
124.8	Oral Roberts	Sum	1.7	117	121	123	124	125	126	127	127	130
126.2	Virginia	ACC	4.8	83	109	125	126	127	128	129	130	133
129.2	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.4	125	127	127	128	129	130	131	132	134
130.0	Michigan	B10	8.8	85	104	113	131	133	134	136	137	140
130.2	Niagara	MAAC	1.3	126	127	128	129	130	131	132	133	135
130.4	Robert Morris	NEC	1.6	126	127	128	129	131	132	132	133	135
133.1	Princeton	Ivy	1.4	131	131	131	132	133	134	135	136	139
134.2	Western Kentucky	SB	1.2	131	132	133	133	134	135	136	137	140
135.0	Miami OH	MAC	14.3	103	106	108	127	143	145	147	150	154
136.3	Belmont	ASun	1.7	130	133	134	135	136	137	138	140	143
137.1	UCLA	P10	6.5	101	115	134	137	139	140	141	143	147
137.2	Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.4	133	135	136	136	137	138	139	140	144
137.7	Boston University	AE	9.2	118	124	125	126	144	145	146	147	151
139.0	Oregon	P10	1.7	134	136	137	138	139	140	141	142	145
139.0	Houston	CUSA	13.8	109	113	117	133	136	154	156	157	160
139.8	Providence	BE	1.9	134	136	137	139	140	141	142	144	147
141.5	Western Michigan	MAC	13.3	111	114	116	136	150	151	152	153	155
141.6	Rider	MAAC	1.9	135	138	139	140	142	143	144	145	148
142.1	Jacksonville	ASun	1.7	135	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	147
142.3	Stony Brook	AE	1.6	135	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	147
144.0	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	11.0	124	127	128	129	151	152	152	153	155
146.0	Hofstra	CAA	1.5	142	143	144	145	146	147	148	149	152
147.8	Nebraska	B12	2.1	140	144	145	146	148	149	151	151	154
148.1	George Washington	A10	1.9	143	145	146	147	148	150	151	151	153
148.3	Quinnipiac	NEC	1.7	142	145	146	147	148	150	150	151	154
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
148.7	Drexel	CAA	1.8	142	145	146	147	149	150	151	152	153
151.7	Lehigh	Pat	6.8	139	144	145	147	150	152	165	169	175
152.7	Maine	AE	0.8	149	151	152	152	153	153	154	154	156
152.8	St. Bonaventure	A10	8.6	99	119	140	155	156	156	157	157	159
154.1	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.0	151	152	153	153	154	155	155	156	158
154.8	Auburn	SEC	1.1	151	153	153	154	155	156	156	157	159
157.9	Utah	MWC	1.2	153	156	156	157	158	159	159	160	163
158.2	George Mason	CAA	1.1	154	156	157	157	158	159	160	160	162
158.6	Arkansas	SEC	1.6	153	156	157	157	159	160	161	162	166
159.9	Rutgers	BE	1.3	155	157	158	159	160	161	161	162	164
160.7	Winthrop	BSth	0.9	157	159	160	160	161	161	162	162	164
160.8	Stanford	P10	7.9	117	133	151	162	164	165	165	166	168
162.4	Washington St.	P10	0.8	159	161	161	162	162	163	163	164	165
163.8	Austin Peay	OVC	1.3	159	161	162	163	164	165	165	166	169
164.3	Denver	SB	1.0	161	163	163	164	164	165	166	166	168
166.4	Cleveland St.	Horz	1.3	160	164	165	166	166	167	168	170	172
167.7	Detroit	Horz	1.1	163	166	166	167	168	168	169	170	172
167.8	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.6	161	165	166	167	168	169	170	171	173
169.2	Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.1	164	167	168	169	169	170	171	171	173
170.0	Southern Illinois	MVC	1.6	163	167	168	169	170	171	172	172	174
170.3	Radford	BSth	1.3	166	168	169	170	170	171	172	173	174
172.1	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.7	168	170	171	172	172	172	173	173	175
173.0	Idaho	WAC	0.9	168	171	172	173	173	173	174	175	176
173.8	Massachusetts	A10	5.8	112	156	173	175	176	176	176	177	178
174.7	La Salle	A10	0.9	171	173	174	174	175	175	176	176	178
174.8	Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.8	172	173	174	174	175	175	176	176	178
177.2	San Jose St.	WAC	0.6	174	176	177	177	177	177	178	178	181
179.3	St. Peter's	MAAC	1.4	177	177	178	178	179	180	181	182	184
179.7	Davidson	SC	1.1	177	178	178	179	180	180	181	182	185
180.1	Middle Tennessee	SB	2.0	176	177	178	178	180	182	183	184	185
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
181.2	Saint Joseph's	A10	1.9	177	178	179	180	181	183	183	184	186
181.6	Drake	MVC	1.7	177	178	179	180	182	183	183	184	185
181.8	Campbell	ASun	1.1	177	179	181	181	182	183	183	184	185
184.9	Oregon St.	P10	0.8	183	184	184	184	185	185	186	186	187
185.0	Valparaiso	Horz	0.8	183	184	184	185	185	186	186	186	188
186.8	Fresno St.	WAC	4.5	155	175	186	187	188	189	190	191	193
187.2	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.4	184	186	186	186	187	188	189	190	193
188.8	Bowling Green	MAC	1.3	186	187	187	188	189	190	190	191	193
188.8	Texas Christian	MWC	1.1	186	187	187	188	189	190	190	191	192
190.0	Central Florida	CUSA	1.0	186	187	189	190	190	191	191	191	193
190.0	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	6.4	177	180	182	184	192	196	198	200	203
191.7	Seattle	ind	0.6	191	191	191	191	192	192	192	193	194
192.9	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.8	191	192	192	192	193	193	194	195	196
194.0	Penn St.	B10	0.8	191	193	193	193	194	194	195	196	197
194.8	Central Michigan	MAC	0.9	192	193	194	194	195	195	196	196	199
196.8	Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.0	194	195	196	196	197	197	198	199	201
197.1	Jackson St.	SWAC	1.4	192	195	195	196	197	198	199	200	202
199.0	Northern Arizona	BSky	1.1	195	197	198	198	199	200	200	201	203
199.4	The Citadel	SC	1.4	194	196	198	199	199	200	201	202	204
200.8	Montana St.	BSky	1.0	197	199	200	200	201	201	202	203	205
202.1	Arkansas St.	SB	1.0	199	200	201	201	202	203	203	204	206
202.8	Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.0	200	201	202	202	203	203	204	205	207
204.2	Boise St.	WAC	1.1	200	202	203	203	204	205	206	206	208
204.8	Canisius	MAAC	1.0	201	203	204	204	205	205	206	207	209
206.0	Delaware St.	MEAC	9.3	186	187	192	198	212	214	215	216	219
206.9	Lipscomb	ASun	1.3	203	205	205	206	207	208	209	209	211
207.2	San Francisco	WCC	1.5	203	204	205	206	207	208	209	210	212
207.5	Southern Methodist	CUSA	8.4	186	190	195	198	213	213	214	215	216
207.7	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.5	202	205	206	207	208	209	210	210	212
208.2	Lafayette	Pat	6.1	193	195	196	208	211	212	213	215	218
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
208.3	South Alabama	SB	1.3	204	206	206	207	208	209	210	211	212
210.4	Iowa	B10	1.1	204	209	209	210	210	211	212	213	214
211.2	DePaul	BE	1.0	208	209	210	211	211	212	212	213	215
213.1	Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.8	210	212	212	213	213	214	214	214	216
216.0	Florida Atlantic	SB	1.2	212	214	215	215	216	217	218	219	222
217.6	Loyola MD	MAAC	1.6	214	215	215	216	218	219	220	221	223
217.9	NC Asheville	BSth	1.5	214	215	216	217	218	219	220	221	223
218.3	Ball St.	MAC	2.0	212	215	215	217	218	220	221	222	224
219.8	Mercer	ASun	1.6	214	216	218	219	220	221	222	223	224
220.6	South Dakota	GWC	6.5	213	214	215	215	218	227	232	234	237
221.3	Indiana	B10	1.5	214	218	219	220	222	222	223	223	225
221.7	Portland St.	BSky	1.0	218	220	220	221	222	222	223	223	225
223.8	Louisiana St.	SEC	1.0	221	222	223	223	224	224	225	226	227
224.0	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.9	222	222	223	223	224	225	225	226	227
224.0	Texas Southern	SWAC	6.4	212	215	216	218	226	228	230	238	240
225.4	Manhattan	MAAC	0.9	222	224	224	225	225	226	226	227	228
227.4	Wyoming	MWC	1.1	225	225	226	227	227	228	229	229	231
227.6	Binghamton	AE	1.0	225	226	226	227	228	228	229	229	231
229.5	East Carolina	CUSA	1.0	225	228	228	229	229	230	231	231	233
230.3	San Diego	WCC	1.0	225	228	229	230	230	231	232	232	234
231.5	South Carolina St.	MEAC	8.8	209	211	222	226	231	239	240	241	243
231.6	Liberty	BSth	0.9	228	230	230	231	232	232	233	233	235
233.7	South Dakota St.	Sum	1.4	229	231	232	233	234	235	236	236	238
234.0	North Florida	ASun	1.3	229	232	232	233	234	235	236	236	238
234.4	Texas Arlington	Slnd	1.7	228	231	232	233	235	236	236	237	239
235.1	Santa Clara	WCC	2.0	229	232	233	234	235	236	238	239	240
236.9	NC Wilmington	CAA	1.0	232	235	236	236	237	238	238	239	240
237.6	Delaware	CAA	1.6	231	234	236	237	238	239	239	240	241
238.1	Chattanooga	SC	1.0	232	236	237	238	238	239	239	240	240
240.3	UC Davis	BW	8.0	214	220	228	233	245	246	246	246	246
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
240.5	Long Island	NEC	0.9	239	239	240	240	240	241	242	243	245
242.3	New Hampshire	AE	1.5	239	240	241	241	242	243	244	245	246
242.7	James Madison	CAA	1.4	239	240	241	242	243	244	245	245	246
243.3	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.3	241	241	242	242	243	244	245	246	246
243.8	Texas St.	Slnd	2.0	238	240	241	242	244	245	246	246	246
244.6	Air Force	MWC	1.4	239	241	243	244	245	246	246	246	246
248.1	Army	Pat	1.0	247	247	247	247	248	249	250	250	251
248.4	Evansville	MVC	1.1	247	247	247	247	249	249	250	250	250
248.6	Georgia St.	CAA	1.1	247	247	247	248	249	249	250	250	251
249.0	NC Greensboro	SC	1.2	247	247	247	248	249	250	250	251	251
251.2	Columbia	Ivy	0.4	250	251	251	251	251	251	252	252	253
252.0	Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.5	250	251	251	252	252	252	253	253	255
253.1	Hawaii	WAC	0.4	252	252	253	253	253	253	254	254	255
254.6	High Point	BSth	0.9	252	253	254	254	254	255	256	257	259
255.7	Cal Poly	BW	1.2	253	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	260
255.8	UC Riverside	BW	0.9	254	254	255	255	256	256	257	257	259
256.6	Brown	Ivy	1.1	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	258	261
258.7	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.4	253	255	257	258	259	260	260	261	262
258.8	Bucknell	Pat	0.8	255	258	258	258	259	259	260	261	262
259.8	Tennessee St.	OVC	0.8	257	258	259	259	260	260	261	261	262
262.5	Samford	SC	1.1	261	261	261	262	262	263	264	265	267
262.8	Sacred Heart	NEC	1.6	261	261	261	261	263	264	265	266	268
263.6	Towson	CAA	1.6	261	261	261	262	264	265	266	266	268
264.3	Northern Illinois	MAC	1.9	261	261	261	263	265	266	267	268	269
264.7	Navy	Pat	1.2	262	263	263	264	265	265	266	267	268
265.7	Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.5	261	262	263	265	266	267	267	268	269
267.4	Yale	Ivy	0.8	264	266	267	267	267	268	268	269	270
268.3	North Dakota St.	Sum	0.7	266	267	268	268	268	269	269	270	270
269.7	Elon	SC	0.8	269	269	269	269	270	270	271	271	273
270.0	Alabama St.	SWAC	8.3	247	250	255	263	274	275	277	278	279
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
271.1	Youngstown St.	Horz	1.2	269	269	270	270	271	272	273	273	276
271.3	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.1	269	270	270	271	271	272	273	274	276
272.7	Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.1	269	270	271	272	273	273	274	275	276
274.1	Holy Cross	Pat	1.7	269	270	272	273	274	275	276	277	279
274.4	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.4	269	271	273	273	274	275	276	277	279
276.2	UC Irvine	BW	0.9	273	275	275	276	276	277	277	278	279
277.3	Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.3	270	274	275	277	278	278	279	279	281
277.4	Eastern Washington	BSky	1.2	273	274	276	277	278	278	279	279	281
278.9	Hampton	MEAC	9.2	254	258	260	282	283	284	285	286	286
280.2	Furman	SC	1.2	277	279	279	279	280	281	282	283	285
280.5	Tulane	CUSA	1.2	276	279	279	280	280	281	282	283	285
280.6	Western Illinois	Sum	1.0	279	279	279	280	281	281	282	283	284
282.0	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.2	278	279	280	282	282	283	283	284	286
284.6	Longwood	ind	1.6	279	280	282	284	285	286	286	287	288
284.7	Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.2	279	282	283	284	285	286	286	286	286
284.7	Charleston Southern	BSth	1.0	281	283	283	284	285	285	286	286	287
287.2	St. Francis PA	NEC	0.5	285	286	287	287	287	287	288	288	289
288.4	Georgia Southern	SC	0.7	286	287	288	288	289	289	289	289	290
288.4	Monmouth	NEC	0.7	287	287	288	288	288	289	289	290	291
290.3	Colgate	Pat	0.5	289	289	290	290	290	291	291	291	292
290.7	Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.6	288	290	290	290	291	291	291	291	293
292.4	Winston Salem St.	ind	0.5	290	292	292	292	292	293	293	293	294
292.6	Lamar	Slnd	0.6	291	292	292	292	293	293	293	294	295
294.5	St. Francis NY	NEC	0.5	292	294	294	294	294	295	295	295	295
294.5	American	Pat	0.6	292	293	294	294	295	295	295	295	296
296.0	Florida International	SB	0.1	295	296	296	296	296	296	296	296	297
297.2	Sacramento St.	BSky	0.4	296	297	297	297	297	297	298	298	299
297.8	Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.4	297	297	297	298	298	298	298	298	299
299.1	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.3	298	299	299	299	299	299	300	300	301
301.0	Albany	AE	0.9	300	300	300	300	301	302	302	303	305
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
301.1	Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.2	299	299	300	300	301	302	303	304	306
301.8	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.7	297	299	300	301	302	303	304	305	308
303.7	Idaho St.	BSky	1.4	300	301	302	303	304	305	306	306	308
303.8	Hartford	AE	1.3	299	301	302	303	304	305	306	306	308
304.7	Fordham	A10	1.8	299	300	302	304	305	306	307	307	308
305.3	Pepperdine	WCC	1.4	299	302	303	305	306	306	307	308	309
307.2	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.0	302	305	306	307	307	308	308	308	309
307.3	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.9	303	305	306	307	307	308	308	308	310
309.3	Central Connecticut	NEC	0.4	307	309	309	309	309	310	310	310	310
309.7	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.5	305	309	309	309	310	310	310	310	310
311.0	Rice	CUSA	0.0	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	312
312.6	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.8	312	312	312	312	312	313	314	314	315
313.0	Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.8	312	312	312	312	313	314	314	315	315
313.6	Centenary	Sum	0.9	311	312	312	313	314	314	315	315	316
314.8	McNeese St.	Slnd	0.5	312	314	314	315	315	315	315	315	316
316.1	Savannah St.	ind	0.3	314	316	316	316	316	316	317	317	317
316.9	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.3	316	316	316	317	317	317	317	317	318
318.0	Gardner Webb	BSth	0.1	317	318	318	318	318	318	318	318	319
319.4	Florida A&M	MEAC	0.7	317	319	319	319	319	320	320	321	322
320.1	Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.8	319	319	319	320	320	321	321	322	322
320.9	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.8	318	319	320	320	321	321	322	322	322
321.8	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.8	319	320	321	322	322	322	323	323	325
323.4	New Orleans	SB	0.6	322	323	323	323	323	324	324	324	325
323.9	Toledo	MAC	0.7	322	323	323	323	324	324	325	325	327
325.6	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.9	323	324	325	325	325	326	327	327	328
326.0	Stetson	ASun	0.9	323	324	325	325	326	327	327	328	328
326.6	Southern Utah	Sum	0.8	324	325	325	326	327	327	327	328	328
329.0	Presbyterian	BSth	0.7	328	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	331
329.3	Howard	MEAC	0.7	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	330	331
329.9	Houston Baptist	GWC	3.8	319	320	328	328	328	333	334	334	336
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
330.8	Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.5	328	330	330	331	331	331	331	331	332
331.5	Wagner	NEC	0.8	328	330	330	331	332	332	332	333	334
332.7	MD Baltimore County	AE	0.6	332	332	332	332	333	333	333	334	335
334.1	Marist	MAAC	0.5	333	333	334	334	334	334	335	335	336
335.0	Texas Pan American	GWC	2.5	325	328	332	336	336	336	336	337	338
335.2	Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4	335	335	335	335	335	335	336	336	337
337.5	Coppin St.	MEAC	0.6	337	337	337	337	337	338	338	339	340
338.5	Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.6	337	338	338	338	338	339	339	340	341
339.4	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.1	333	334	337	337	341	341	341	341	341
339.5	Grambling	SWAC	1.3	331	337	338	339	339	340	341	341	341
340.0	North Dakota	GWC	0.5	339	339	339	340	340	340	341	341	341
342.2	Utah Valley	GWC	0.4	342	342	342	342	342	342	343	343	343
342.8	Southern	SWAC	0.4	342	342	342	343	343	343	343	343	343
344.4	Chicago St.	GWC	0.6	344	344	344	344	344	345	345	346	346
344.8	Bryant	ind	0.5	344	344	344	344	345	345	345	346	346
345.8	Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.6	344	344	345	346	346	346	346	347	347
347.0	North Carolina Central	ind	0.2	345	346	347	347	347	347	347	347	347