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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

IPFW

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:71.0
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:156
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:217


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-971.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IPFW.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA78-64L0%0.0
11-18Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA77-80W100%0.0
11-21SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH87-67W100%0.0
11-24Miami OH (195.0)MACA53-57W100%0.0
11-27Jacksonville (289.0)ASunN63-71W100%0.0
11-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA58-64W100%0.0
11-29Navy (216.0)PatN53-75L0%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (236.0)BWA73-75W100%0.0
12-5Utah (8.0)P12A96-79L0%0.0
12-9Indiana (24.0)B10A90-65L0%0.0
12-12Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH85-68W100%0.0
12-19Stetson (303.0)ASunH95-89W100%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (202.0)MACA86-89W100%0.0
12-30Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH90-84W100%0.0
1-6South Dakota (197.0)SumH85-65W100%0.0
1-9Denver (188.0)SumA64-65W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA92-76L0%0.0
1-16Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA101-106W100%0.0
1-21North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH79-74W100%0.0
1-23IUPUI (189.0)SumH82-84L0%0.0
1-28Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA63-68W100%0.0
1-31Western Illinois (262.0)SumH88-67W100%0.0
2-4South Dakota (197.0)SumA82-95W100%0.0
2-6North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA62-46L0%0.0
2-13Denver (188.0)SumH88-84W100%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH91-79W100%0.0
2-20Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH94-90W100%0.0
2-25Western Illinois (262.0)SumA75-87W100%0.0
2-27IUPUI (189.0)SumA80-77L0%0.0
3-5South Dakota (197.0)SumA70-86W100%0.0
3-7North Dakota St. (120.0)SumN68-69L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IPFW's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IPFW's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IPFW.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IPFWSum26.5426.5476.1976.1913.9013.90
North Dakota St.Sum5.775.7757.1457.140.820.82
South DakotaSum5.665.6644.4444.44-0.63-0.63
South Dakota St.Sum4.294.2979.3179.312.522.52
DenverSum4.224.2255.1755.170.440.44
IUPUISum4.214.2134.4834.48-1.31-1.31
Nebraska OmahaSum4.154.1559.2659.260.770.77
Oral RobertsSum4.154.1544.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Western IllinoisSum4.084.0831.8231.82-1.48-1.48
Austin PeayOVC3.343.3451.6151.610.110.11
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.711.7122.2222.22-0.95-0.95
Miami OHMAC1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
StetsonASun1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
NavyPat1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
UNC GreensboroSC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Western MichiganMAC1.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Cal PolyBW1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
IndianaB101.661.6677.4277.420.910.91
UtahP121.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6179.3179.310.950.95
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.370.3739.2939.29-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.290.2932.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.260.2654.8454.840.030.03
MinnesotaB100.240.2425.8125.81-0.12-0.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2258.0658.060.030.03
IllinoisB100.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
BelmontOVC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1864.2964.290.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1611.1111.11-0.12-0.12
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
OregonP120.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01