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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:71.0
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:156
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:217


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IPFW.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA78-64L0%0.0
11-18Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA77-80W100%0.0
11-21SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH87-67W100%0.0
11-24Miami OH (195.0)MACA53-57W100%0.0
11-27Jacksonville (289.0)ASunN63-71W100%0.0
11-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA58-64W100%0.0
11-29Navy (216.0)PatN53-75L0%0.0
12-3Cal Poly (236.0)BWA73-75W100%0.0
12-5Utah (8.0)P12A96-79L0%0.0
12-9Indiana (24.0)B10A90-65L0%0.0
12-12Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH85-68W100%0.0
12-19Stetson (303.0)ASunH95-89W100%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (202.0)MACA86-89W100%0.0
12-30Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH90-84W100%0.0
1-6South Dakota (197.0)SumH85-65W100%0.0
1-9Denver (188.0)SumA64-65W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA92-76L0%0.0
1-16Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA101-106W100%0.0
1-21North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH79-74W100%0.0
1-23IUPUI (189.0)SumH82-84L0%0.0
1-28Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA63-68W100%0.0
1-31Western Illinois (262.0)SumH88-67W100%0.0
2-4South Dakota (197.0)SumA82-95W100%0.0
2-6North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA62-46L0%0.0
2-13Denver (188.0)SumH88-84W100%0.0
2-18South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH91-79W100%0.0
2-20Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH94-90W100%0.0
2-25Western Illinois (262.0)SumA75-87W100%0.0
2-27IUPUI (189.0)SumA80-77L0%0.0
3-5South Dakota (197.0)SumA70-86W100%0.0
3-7North Dakota St. (120.0)SumN68-69L0%0.0