Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Utah   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Utah

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:163.1
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:88
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:170


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1359.38%92.00.01%
19-1457.58%78.00.01%
18-1456.25%99.10.14%
17-1454.84%114.60.35%
18-1554.55%99.60.10%
17-1553.12%109.50.75%
16-1551.61%126.82.39%
17-1651.52%110.20.54%
16-1650.00%123.92.32%
16-1748.48%123.60.51%
15-1648.39%142.89.69%
15-1746.88%138.64.41%
15-1845.45%135.10.65%
14-1745.16%156.921.63%
15-1944.12%152.50.04%
14-1843.75%152.44.37%
14-1942.42%152.80.40%
13-1841.94%170.625.71%
14-2041.18%164.00.04%
13-1940.62%170.02.81%
13-2039.39%178.70.23%
12-1938.71%185.016.50%
12-2037.50%193.22.44%
12-2136.36%195.30.06%
11-2035.48%202.23.35%
11-2134.38%209.40.35%
10-2132.26%229.40.19%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Idaho (148.3)WACH87-94L0%0.0
11-18Utah St. (31.5)WACH68-67W100%0.0
11-21Southern (342.4)SWACH88-48W100%0.0
11-24Seattle (233.7)indH74-77L0%0.0
11-27Illinois (78.6)B10N60-58W100%0.0
11-28Oklahoma St. (50.6)B12N55-77L0%0.0
12-2Weber St. (77.6)BSkyA76-83L0%0.0
12-5Idaho St. (276.8)BSkyH68-56W100%0.0
12-9Michigan (144.8)B10H68-52W100%0.0
12-12Oklahoma (84.2)B12H73-78L0%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (105.7)MVCH63-73L0%0.0
12-23Pepperdine (285.5)WCCA64-76L0%0.0
12-29Texas San Antonio (177.3)SlndH69-47W100%0.0
1-2Louisiana St. (221.4)SECA61-59W100%0.0
1-9Texas Christian (173.6)MWCH65-45W100%0.0
1-13New Mexico (15.6)MWCA57-74L0%0.0
1-16Nevada Las Vegas (32.1)MWCA73-69W100%0.0
1-19San Diego St. (43.5)MWCH68-70L0%0.0
1-23Air Force (240.7)MWCH71-54W100%0.0
1-27Wyoming (208.6)MWCA69-75L0%0.0
1-30Brigham Young (14.8)MWCA69-82L0%0.0
2-3Colorado St. (116.4)MWCH50-65L0%0.0
2-10Texas Christian (173.6)MWCA0-047%-0.9
2-13New Mexico (15.6)MWCH0-030%-5.6
2-17Nevada Las Vegas (32.1)MWCH0-031%-5.4
2-20San Diego St. (43.5)MWCA0-015%-11.2
2-24Air Force (240.7)MWCA0-066%4.6
2-27Wyoming (208.6)MWCH0-083%10.3
3-3Brigham Young (14.8)MWCH0-018%-10.1
3-6Colorado St. (116.4)MWCA0-039%-3.0