live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Colorado

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:78.1
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:77
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:6.21%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:91


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-777.42%17.00.02%
23-874.19%20.90.45%
22-873.33%39.10.16%
21-872.41%50.70.22%
22-970.97%30.91.89%
21-970.00%48.41.48%
20-968.97%61.52.14%
22-1068.75%32.00.17%
21-1067.74%40.64.01%
20-1066.67%58.15.19%
21-1165.62%41.61.37%
19-1065.52%72.28.05%
20-1164.52%54.14.58%
19-1163.33%70.59.88%
20-1262.50%55.42.56%
18-1162.07%85.214.26%
19-1261.29%71.35.14%
18-1260.00%88.412.50%
19-1359.38%66.91.20%
17-1258.62%101.58.37%
18-1358.06%83.72.84%
17-1356.67%102.17.05%
18-1456.25%78.60.27%
16-1355.17%118.72.80%
17-1454.84%95.50.56%
16-1453.33%112.91.72%
15-1451.72%131.70.91%
16-1551.61%107.00.01%
15-1550.00%126.20.13%
14-1548.28%148.50.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wichita St. (15.9)MVCN58-67L0%0.0
11-18Maryland (111.0)ACCN71-78L0%0.0
11-20Western Michigan (182.0)MACN81-76W100%0.0
11-23Air Force (181.8)MWCA73-76W100%0.0
11-28Georgia (139.9)SECH70-68W100%0.0
11-30Colorado St. (42.4)MWCA65-64L0%0.0
12-7Fresno St. (181.1)WACH71-64W100%0.0
12-9Wyoming (58.0)MWCH54-65L0%0.0
12-19Cal St. Bakersfield (215.3)indH70-64W100%0.0
12-22Texas Southern (228.4)SWACH56-51W100%0.0
12-31Utah (275.1)P12H73-33W100%0.0
1-5Washington (71.3)P12H87-69W100%0.0
1-7Washington St. (168.5)P12H71-60W100%0.0
1-12California (40.2)P12A57-50L0%0.0
1-14Stanford (85.8)P12A84-64L0%0.0
1-19Arizona St. (245.1)P12H69-54W100%0.0
1-21Arizona (75.5)P12H64-63W100%0.0
1-26Southern California (237.1)P12A50-74W100%0.0
1-28UCLA (106.8)P12A77-60L0%0.0
2-2Oregon St. (108.9)P12H82-60W100%0.0
2-4Oregon (92.4)P12H72-71W100%0.0
2-9Arizona (75.5)P12A0-025%-7.2
2-11Arizona St. (245.1)P12A0-071%6.1
2-18Utah (275.1)P12A0-092%15.0
2-23Stanford (85.8)P12H0-052%0.5
2-26California (40.2)P12H0-038%-3.2
3-1Oregon (92.4)P12A0-044%-1.6
3-3Oregon St. (108.9)P12A0-033%-4.8