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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:40.1
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:89
Current Record:18-6
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:31.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:85


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
28-682.35%14.03.11%
27-779.41%18.110.50%
26-778.79%32.12.36%
25-778.12%42.22.54%
27-877.14%18.50.02%
26-876.47%23.915.89%
25-875.76%39.06.34%
24-875.00%50.48.04%
26-974.29%22.40.53%
25-973.53%31.711.98%
24-972.73%47.87.85%
23-971.88%58.99.70%
25-1071.43%31.11.50%
24-1070.59%42.94.02%
23-1069.70%57.24.98%
22-1068.75%69.55.35%
24-1168.57%42.60.79%
23-1167.65%56.81.19%
22-1166.67%72.21.79%
23-1265.71%54.70.16%
21-1165.62%82.90.65%
22-1264.71%68.70.20%
21-1263.64%83.30.33%
22-1362.86%71.00.01%
20-1262.50%102.20.09%
21-1361.76%85.00.01%
20-1360.61%103.00.01%
19-1359.38%112.60.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Irvine (259.9)BWH77-56W100%0.0
11-13George Washington (201.7)A10H81-54W100%0.0
11-15Austin Peay (194.0)OVCH72-55W100%0.0
11-21Georgia (139.5)SECN46-70W100%0.0
11-22Missouri (13.3)B12N92-53L0%0.0
11-26Denver (81.4)SBH80-59W100%0.0
11-28McNeese St. (220.0)SlndH73-57W100%0.0
12-4San Diego St. (30.7)MWCA64-63L0%0.0
12-7San Jose St. (278.9)WACH81-36W100%0.0
12-11Jackson St. (306.8)SWACH73-46W100%0.0
12-16Weber St. (78.6)BSkyH77-57W100%0.0
12-19UC Santa Barbara (137.8)BWH70-50W100%0.0
12-23Nevada Las Vegas (14.5)MWCA85-68L0%0.0
12-29Southern California (236.9)P12H53-49W100%0.0
12-31UCLA (106.2)P12H85-69W100%0.0
1-5Oregon St. (109.7)P12A92-85L0%0.0
1-8Oregon (90.8)P12A60-77W100%0.0
1-12Colorado (78.7)P12H57-50W100%0.0
1-14Utah (276.1)P12H81-45W100%0.0
1-19Washington (70.3)P12A66-69W100%0.0
1-21Washington St. (167.4)P12A77-75L0%0.0
1-29Stanford (86.0)P12H69-59W100%0.0
2-2Arizona (74.3)P12H74-78L0%0.0
2-4Arizona St. (245.5)P12H68-47W100%0.0
2-9Southern California (236.9)P12A0-084%10.9
2-11UCLA (106.2)P12A0-055%1.3
2-16Oregon (90.8)P12H0-086%11.6
2-18Oregon St. (109.7)P12H0-078%8.4
2-23Utah (276.1)P12A0-098%21.4
2-26Colorado (78.7)P12A0-062%3.2
3-4Stanford (86.0)P12A0-052%0.4