Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  California   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

California

Conference:P10
Expected RPI:24.2
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:11
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:37.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:1


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-875.76%10.26.59%
24-972.73%14.718.11%
23-971.88%16.95.25%
22-970.97%19.22.89%
23-1069.70%20.418.35%
22-1068.75%23.79.35%
21-1067.74%27.05.19%
22-1166.67%27.910.02%
21-1165.62%31.97.27%
20-1164.52%36.34.73%
21-1263.64%35.63.45%
20-1262.50%41.03.41%
19-1261.29%45.32.58%
20-1360.61%44.40.72%
19-1359.38%49.10.79%
20-1458.82%52.00.05%
18-1358.06%55.00.91%
19-1457.58%52.30.06%
18-1456.25%59.00.11%
17-1454.84%64.20.14%
18-1554.55%62.00.01%
16-1551.61%74.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Murray St. (63.2)OVCH75-70W100%0.0
11-11Detroit (159.7)HorzH95-61W100%0.0
11-19Syracuse (3.3)BEN73-95L0%0.0
11-20Ohio St. (37.1)B10N70-76L0%0.0
11-24Jacksonville (134.0)ASunH79-47W100%0.0
11-29Princeton (120.1)IvyH81-60W100%0.0
12-2New Mexico (15.6)MWCA78-86L0%0.0
12-5Iowa St. (114.5)B12H82-63W100%0.0
12-9Pacific (112.7)BWA79-54W100%0.0
12-22Kansas (1.9)B12A69-84L0%0.0
12-28Utah Valley (327.9)GWCH85-51W100%0.0
12-29UC Santa Barbara (143.9)BWH87-66W100%0.0
1-2Stanford (174.5)P10H92-66W100%0.0
1-6UCLA (151.5)P10H75-76L0%0.0
1-9Southern California (82.3)P10H67-59W100%0.0
1-14Washington St. (114.2)P10A93-88W100%0.0
1-16Washington (51.2)P10A69-84L0%0.0
1-21Oregon (155.5)P10H89-57W100%0.0
1-23Oregon St. (206.5)P10H65-61W100%0.0
1-28Arizona St. (69.5)P10A78-70W100%0.0
1-31Arizona (84.6)P10A72-76L0%0.0
2-4Southern California (82.3)P10A63-66L0%0.0
2-6UCLA (151.5)P10A72-58W100%0.0
2-11Washington (51.2)P10H0-073%6.6
2-13Washington St. (114.2)P10H0-090%13.9
2-18Oregon St. (206.5)P10A0-083%10.4
2-20Oregon (155.5)P10A0-076%7.8
2-25Arizona (84.6)P10H0-085%11.5
2-27Arizona St. (69.5)P10H0-072%6.2
3-6Stanford (174.5)P10A0-074%7.0