Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Virginia   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:52
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:242


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1652.94%91.00.31%
17-1750.00%103.11.14%
16-1748.48%111.52.59%
15-1746.88%126.795.96%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Longwood (285.8)indH85-72W100%0.0
11-16South Florida (70.5)BEA49-66L0%0.0
11-19Rider (140.8)MAACH79-46W100%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (124.3)SumH76-55W100%0.0
11-24Stanford (165.1)P10N52-57L0%0.0
11-25Cleveland St. (166.0)HorzN76-65W100%0.0
11-30Penn St. (194.0)B10H66-69L0%0.0
12-7Auburn (156.5)SECA67-68L0%0.0
12-21NJ Inst of Technology (341.0)GWCH68-37W100%0.0
12-23Hampton (283.5)MEACH80-54W100%0.0
12-30UAB (45.3)CUSAH72-63W100%0.0
1-5Texas Pan American (336.0)GWCH72-53W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina St. (92.6)ACCA70-62W100%0.0
1-13Georgia Tech (36.8)ACCH82-75W100%0.0
1-16Miami FL (95.7)ACCH75-57W100%0.0
1-18NC Wilmington (237.0)CAAH69-67W100%0.0
1-23Wake Forest (40.6)ACCA57-69L0%0.0
1-28Virginia Tech (56.6)ACCH71-76L0%0.0
1-31North Carolina (94.1)ACCA75-60W100%0.0
2-3North Carolina St. (92.6)ACCH59-47W100%0.0
2-6Wake Forest (40.6)ACCH61-64L0%0.0
2-13Virginia Tech (56.6)ACCA55-61L0%0.0
2-15Maryland (22.1)ACCA66-85L0%0.0
2-17Florida St. (41.5)ACCH50-69L0%0.0
2-20Clemson (34.3)ACCA49-72L0%0.0
2-23Miami FL (95.7)ACCA62-74L0%0.0
2-28Duke (2.8)ACCH49-67L0%0.0
3-3Boston College (124.9)ACCA55-68L0%0.0
3-6Maryland (22.1)ACCH68-74L0%0.0
3-11Boston College (124.9)ACCN68-62W100%0.0
3-12Duke (2.8)ACCN46-57L0%0.0