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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:2
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:18


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH86-48W100%0.0
11-16George Washington (68.0)A10A73-68L0%0.0
11-19Bradley (306.0)MVCN57-82W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN87-52W100%0.0
11-22George Mason (201.0)A10N83-66W100%0.0
11-25Lehigh (168.0)PatH80-54W100%0.0
12-1Ohio St. (74.0)B10A58-64W100%0.0
12-5William & Mary (67.0)CAAH67-52W100%0.0
12-8West Virginia (10.0)B12N70-54W100%0.0
12-19Villanova (4.0)BEH86-75W100%0.0
12-22California (16.0)P12H63-62W100%0.0
12-30Oakland (116.0)HorzH71-58W100%0.0
1-2Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH77-66W100%0.0
1-4Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA70-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA68-64L0%0.0
1-12Miami FL (9.0)ACCH66-58W100%0.0
1-17Florida St. (82.0)ACCA69-62L0%0.0
1-19Clemson (131.0)ACCH69-62W100%0.0
1-24Syracuse (72.0)ACCH73-65W100%0.0
1-26Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA71-72W100%0.0
1-30Louisville (17.0)ACCA47-63W100%0.0
2-3Boston College (250.0)ACCH61-47W100%0.0
2-6Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA50-64W100%0.0
2-9Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH67-49W100%0.0
2-13Duke (20.0)ACCA63-62L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH73-53W100%0.0
2-22Miami FL (9.0)ACCA64-61L0%0.0
2-27North Carolina (5.0)ACCH79-74W100%0.0
3-1Clemson (131.0)ACCA57-64W100%0.0
3-5Louisville (17.0)ACCH68-46W100%0.0
3-10Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCN72-52W100%0.0
3-11Miami FL (9.0)ACCN73-68W100%0.0
3-12North Carolina (5.0)ACCN61-57L0%0.0