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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:53.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:86
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:234


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-970.97%53.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACH75-38W100%0.0
11-15Winthrop (272.0)BSthH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Texas Christian (114.0)MWCN55-57L0%0.0
11-19Drexel (64.0)CAAN49-35W100%0.0
11-21Drake (133.0)MVCN52-60W100%0.0
11-25Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)HorzH68-42W100%0.0
11-29Michigan (14.0)B10H70-58W100%0.0
12-3Longwood (332.0)indH86-53W100%0.0
12-6George Mason (82.0)CAAH68-48W100%0.0
12-18Oregon (67.0)P12A54-67W100%0.0
12-21Seattle (277.0)indA77-83W100%0.0
12-27Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)MEACH69-42W100%0.0
12-30Towson (311.0)CAAH57-50W100%0.0
1-2Louisiana St. (84.0)SECA52-57W100%0.0
1-7Miami FL (60.0)ACCH52-51W100%0.0
1-12Duke (5.0)ACCA61-58L0%0.0
1-19Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCA38-70W100%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCH45-47L0%0.0
1-26Boston College (244.0)ACCH66-49W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCA60-61W100%0.0
1-31Clemson (151.0)ACCH65-61W100%0.0
2-4Florida St. (11.0)ACCA58-55L0%0.0
2-8Wake Forest (183.0)ACCH68-44W100%0.0
2-11North Carolina (3.0)ACCA70-52L0%0.0
2-14Clemson (151.0)ACCA60-48L0%0.0
2-18Maryland (105.0)ACCH71-44W100%0.0
2-21Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCA59-61W100%0.0
2-25North Carolina (3.0)ACCH51-54L0%0.0
3-1Florida St. (11.0)ACCH60-63L0%0.0
3-4Maryland (105.0)ACCA72-75W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCN64-67L0%0.0