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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Virginia

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:118
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:304


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1165.62%76.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9George Mason (162.0)CAAA63-59L0%0.0
11-12Fairfield (173.0)MAACH54-45W100%0.0
11-13Delaware (141.0)CAAH53-59L0%0.0
11-17Seattle (303.0)WACH83-43W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (335.0)SlndH63-44W100%0.0
11-20North Texas (247.0)SBH80-64W100%0.0
11-28Wisconsin (32.0)B10A54-60W100%0.0
12-1Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH67-51W100%0.0
12-5Tennessee (59.0)SECH46-38W100%0.0
12-8Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACH67-39W100%0.0
12-19Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH75-57W100%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (318.0)CAAN63-61L0%0.0
12-30Wofford (250.0)SCH74-39W100%0.0
1-6North Carolina (17.0)ACCH61-52W100%0.0
1-9Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA55-52L0%0.0
1-12Clemson (185.0)ACCA59-44L0%0.0
1-19Florida St. (85.0)ACCH56-36W100%0.0
1-24Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA58-74W100%0.0
1-26Boston College (113.0)ACCH65-51W100%0.0
1-29North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
2-3Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA66-60L0%0.0
2-7Clemson (185.0)ACCH78-41W100%0.0
2-10Maryland (73.0)ACCA69-80W100%0.0
2-12Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH73-55W100%0.0
2-16North Carolina (17.0)ACCA93-81L0%0.0
2-19Miami FL (4.0)ACCA54-50L0%0.0
2-24Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCH82-54W100%0.0
2-28Duke (1.0)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
3-3Boston College (113.0)ACCA53-52L0%0.0
3-7Florida St. (85.0)ACCA53-51L0%0.0
3-10Maryland (73.0)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
3-15North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCN56-75L0%0.0