live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:6.1
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:3
Current Record:19-3
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:27.74%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:3


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
31-391.18%1.21.52%
30-488.24%1.77.36%
29-487.88%3.61.25%
28-487.50%5.40.74%
29-585.29%2.614.69%
28-584.85%4.76.20%
27-584.38%6.83.48%
28-682.35%3.715.10%
27-681.82%6.311.78%
26-681.25%9.36.45%
28-780.00%4.00.04%
27-779.41%5.48.10%
26-778.79%8.88.31%
25-778.12%12.55.56%
27-877.14%6.10.17%
26-876.47%7.92.36%
25-875.76%11.93.07%
24-875.00%16.71.86%
26-974.29%8.30.15%
25-973.53%10.50.48%
24-972.73%16.30.58%
23-971.88%20.00.33%
25-1071.43%12.80.05%
24-1070.59%15.00.11%
23-1069.70%22.30.13%
22-1068.75%31.20.08%
24-1168.57%16.00.01%
23-1167.65%19.00.01%
22-1166.67%25.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Belmont (54.3)ASunH77-76W100%0.0
11-12Presbyterian (251.0)BSthH96-55W100%0.0
11-15Michigan St. (10.3)B10N74-69W100%0.0
11-18Davidson (50.9)SCH82-69W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee (138.5)SECN77-67W100%0.0
11-22Michigan (32.6)B10N82-75W100%0.0
11-23Kansas (9.4)B12N68-61W100%0.0
11-29Ohio St. (4.0)B10A85-63L0%0.0
12-7Colorado St. (42.2)MWCH87-64W100%0.0
12-10Washington (70.3)P12N86-80W100%0.0
12-19NC Greensboro (257.0)SCH90-63W100%0.0
12-30Western Michigan (181.2)MACH110-70W100%0.0
1-1Pennsylvania (120.6)IvyH85-55W100%0.0
1-4Temple (28.2)A10A78-73L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Tech (174.6)ACCA74-81W100%0.0
1-12Virginia (40.5)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
1-15Clemson (149.7)ACCA66-73W100%0.0
1-19Wake Forest (180.8)ACCH91-73W100%0.0
1-21Florida St. (24.3)ACCH73-76L0%0.0
1-25Maryland (122.6)ACCA61-74W100%0.0
1-28St. John's (160.1)BEH83-76W100%0.0
2-2Virginia Tech (95.2)ACCA60-75W100%0.0
2-5Miami FL (68.7)ACCH0-086%11.9
2-8North Carolina (5.7)ACCA0-033%-4.8
2-11Maryland (122.6)ACCH0-095%18.4
2-16North Carolina St. (66.6)ACCH0-085%11.4
2-19Boston College (253.7)ACCA0-096%19.3
2-23Florida St. (24.3)ACCA0-047%-0.8
2-25Virginia Tech (95.2)ACCH0-085%11.3
2-28Wake Forest (180.8)ACCA0-091%15.0
3-3North Carolina (5.7)ACCH0-057%1.9