Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Duke   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:3.6
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:6
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-0
Probability of Auto Bid:52.45%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:19


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
30-488.24%1.59.10%
29-585.29%2.221.99%
28-584.85%2.63.14%
27-584.38%3.02.89%
28-682.35%3.120.83%
27-681.82%3.75.92%
26-681.25%4.35.93%
27-779.41%4.311.35%
26-778.79%5.24.41%
25-778.12%5.85.03%
27-877.14%4.00.01%
26-876.47%6.03.53%
25-875.76%7.02.08%
24-875.00%8.01.93%
26-974.29%8.70.11%
25-973.53%8.50.65%
24-972.73%10.20.41%
23-971.88%12.60.37%
25-1071.43%10.30.03%
24-1070.59%13.10.08%
23-1069.70%14.50.12%
22-1068.75%19.30.06%
24-1168.57%16.00.01%
22-1166.67%25.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13NC Greensboro (265.1)SCH96-62W100%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (123.2)BSthH74-49W100%0.0
11-17Charlotte (48.7)A10H101-59W100%0.0
11-21Radford (172.0)BSthH104-67W100%0.0
11-25Arizona St. (69.5)P10N64-53W100%0.0
11-27Connecticut (56.7)BEN68-59W100%0.0
12-2Wisconsin (13.0)B10A69-73L0%0.0
12-5St. John's (105.0)BEH80-71W100%0.0
12-15Gardner Webb (306.0)BSthH113-68W100%0.0
12-19Gonzaga (33.4)WCCN76-41W100%0.0
12-29Long Beach St. (139.6)BWH84-63W100%0.0
12-31Pennsylvania (299.8)IvyH114-55W100%0.0
1-3Clemson (38.7)ACCH74-53W100%0.0
1-6Iowa St. (114.5)B12N86-65W100%0.0
1-9Georgia Tech (27.1)ACCA67-71L0%0.0
1-13Boston College (110.9)ACCH79-59W100%0.0
1-17Wake Forest (28.0)ACCH90-70W100%0.0
1-20North Carolina St. (113.2)ACCA74-88L0%0.0
1-23Clemson (38.7)ACCA60-47W100%0.0
1-27Florida St. (43.0)ACCH70-56W100%0.0
1-30Georgetown (9.9)BEA77-89L0%0.0
2-4Georgia Tech (27.1)ACCH86-67W100%0.0
2-6Boston College (110.9)ACCA66-63W100%0.0
2-10North Carolina (82.0)ACCA0-077%8.0
2-13Maryland (37.9)ACCH0-083%10.3
2-17Miami FL (92.6)ACCA0-078%8.3
2-21Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCH0-092%15.2
2-25Tulsa (62.5)CUSAH0-094%17.2
2-28Virginia (93.1)ACCA0-078%8.4
3-3Maryland (37.9)ACCA0-059%2.4
3-6North Carolina (82.0)ACCH0-093%15.9