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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Elon

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:223.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:274
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:113


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1163.33%104.00.02%
17-1160.71%153.00.01%
18-1260.00%132.20.32%
17-1258.62%162.80.26%
16-1257.14%179.60.58%
17-1356.67%149.81.10%
16-1355.17%178.01.48%
17-1454.84%152.00.01%
15-1353.57%196.43.66%
16-1453.33%168.13.13%
15-1451.72%195.04.45%
16-1551.61%170.70.13%
15-1550.00%188.43.82%
14-1450.00%213.813.35%
15-1648.39%195.80.60%
14-1548.28%211.58.83%
14-1646.67%214.02.41%
13-1546.43%230.920.29%
14-1745.16%212.80.58%
13-1644.83%231.09.63%
13-1743.33%234.80.83%
12-1642.86%250.014.16%
13-1841.94%224.50.04%
12-1741.38%247.03.34%
12-1840.00%244.30.18%
11-1739.29%266.65.41%
11-1837.93%262.10.35%
10-1835.71%277.81.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Massachusetts (81.7)A10A85-67L0%0.0
11-15South Carolina (177.4)SECH58-53W100%0.0
11-22Princeton (124.3)IvyA55-56W100%0.0
11-25North Carolina St. (66.6)ACCA82-67L0%0.0
11-30Furman (224.7)SCH77-70W100%0.0
12-3Navy (316.2)PatH51-48W100%0.0
12-5NC Greensboro (257.0)SCA72-80W100%0.0
12-17Dartmouth (321.3)IvyA62-54L0%0.0
12-22San Diego St. (30.7)MWCA81-55L0%0.0
12-29North Carolina (5.7)ACCA100-62L0%0.0
1-5Georgia Southern (224.5)SCH63-69L0%0.0
1-8Columbia (157.1)IvyH60-65L0%0.0
1-12The Citadel (330.9)SCA55-70W100%0.0
1-14College of Charleston (121.4)SCA63-44L0%0.0
1-19Samford (252.5)SCH80-86L0%0.0
1-21Chattanooga (277.7)SCH88-87W100%0.0
1-26Western Carolina (257.8)SCA63-71W100%0.0
1-28Appalachian St. (245.3)SCA81-66L0%0.0
2-2College of Charleston (121.4)SCH99-98W100%0.0
2-4The Citadel (330.9)SCH71-66W100%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (245.3)SCH0-057%1.9
2-9Chattanooga (277.7)SCA0-031%-5.5
2-11Samford (252.5)SCA0-039%-2.9
2-15Wofford (163.4)SCA0-019%-9.4
2-18Western Carolina (257.8)SCH0-063%3.7
2-23Davidson (50.9)SCA0-05%-17.9
2-25NC Greensboro (257.0)SCH0-070%5.7