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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:36
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:168


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Samford (252.0)SCH86-45W100%0.0
11-17Hartford (292.0)AEH87-52W100%0.0
11-21North Florida (161.0)ASunH89-61W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH85-41W100%0.0
11-28Saint Louis (206.0)A10N77-57W100%0.0
12-2Michigan St. (12.0)B10A71-67L0%0.0
12-5Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH111-63W100%0.0
12-12Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH86-53W100%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH94-57W100%0.0
12-19Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH78-56W100%0.0
12-22UMKC (286.0)WACH75-47W100%0.0
12-23Utah Valley (272.0)WACH98-68W100%0.0
12-26Kentucky (11.0)SECA75-73L0%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH65-57W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA72-77W100%0.0
1-10Clemson (131.0)ACCA66-62L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH59-41W100%0.0
1-20Florida St. (82.0)ACCH84-65W100%0.0
1-23Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA71-75W100%0.0
1-27Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA83-91W100%0.0
1-30Virginia (3.0)ACCH47-63L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina (5.0)ACCH71-65W100%0.0
2-6Boston College (250.0)ACCH79-47W100%0.0
2-8Duke (20.0)ACCA72-65L0%0.0
2-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA71-66L0%0.0
2-17Syracuse (72.0)ACCH72-58W100%0.0
2-20Duke (20.0)ACCH71-64W100%0.0
2-24Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA60-67W100%0.0
2-27Miami FL (9.0)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
3-1Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH56-53W100%0.0
3-5Virginia (3.0)ACCA68-46L0%0.0