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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:323.5
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:323
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:300


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
11-2134.38%283.80.11%
10-2033.33%299.00.02%
10-2132.26%294.00.32%
10-2231.25%292.40.18%
9-2130.00%306.71.54%
9-2229.03%304.21.85%
9-2328.12%301.40.57%
8-2226.67%315.111.32%
8-2325.81%312.54.56%
8-2425.00%309.50.60%
8-2524.24%319.00.01%
7-2323.33%323.032.52%
7-2422.58%320.74.08%
7-2521.88%314.50.08%
6-2420.00%329.334.81%
6-2519.35%326.40.69%
5-2516.67%333.56.73%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Sacred Heart (237.3)NECN50-70L0%0.0
11-12Penn St. (172.5)B10A70-55L0%0.0
11-16Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECH50-63L0%0.0
11-19Brown (307.6)IvyA59-52L0%0.0
11-23Holy Cross (226.6)PatA80-66L0%0.0
11-26Central Connecticut (227.1)NECA92-58L0%0.0
11-29Yale (124.9)IvyH69-74L0%0.0
12-3Central Florida (77.0)CUSAA67-48L0%0.0
12-6Quinnipiac (165.8)NECH61-70L0%0.0
12-10Niagara (212.9)MAACH76-79L0%0.0
12-21Marist (275.6)MAACA89-86L0%0.0
12-31La Salle (69.7)A10A73-55L0%0.0
1-2Albany (206.4)AEA88-63L0%0.0
1-5New Hampshire (314.7)AEH56-49W100%0.0
1-8Vermont (155.6)AEH59-72L0%0.0
1-15Binghamton (343.4)AEA57-69W100%0.0
1-17MD Baltimore County (335.4)AEH74-57W100%0.0
1-19Maine (262.1)AEA49-63W100%0.0
1-22Boston University (159.1)AEH46-65L0%0.0
1-25Stony Brook (132.5)AEA60-37L0%0.0
1-28Albany (206.4)AEH60-72L0%0.0
2-1New Hampshire (314.7)AEA52-51L0%0.0
2-4Vermont (155.6)AEA82-56L0%0.0
2-7MD Baltimore County (335.4)AEA70-76W100%0.0
2-12Binghamton (343.4)AEH0-080%9.4
2-15Maine (262.1)AEH0-036%-4.0
2-18St. Peter's (280.4)MAACA0-024%-7.6
2-21Stony Brook (132.5)AEH0-013%-12.2
2-25Boston University (159.1)AEA0-08%-15.6