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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:213.9
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:158
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:1.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:139


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1652.94%124.70.03%
17-1651.52%147.50.04%
17-1750.00%134.70.10%
16-1650.00%165.00.11%
16-1748.48%155.50.36%
16-1847.06%148.50.73%
15-1746.88%177.91.15%
16-1945.71%151.70.03%
15-1845.45%170.92.23%
15-1944.12%164.31.15%
14-1843.75%193.16.30%
15-2042.86%173.00.21%
14-1942.42%186.45.13%
14-2041.18%182.51.83%
13-1940.62%207.515.02%
14-2140.00%187.60.39%
13-2039.39%202.57.88%
13-2138.24%201.41.70%
12-2037.50%220.921.24%
13-2237.14%203.10.40%
12-2136.36%220.97.62%
12-2235.29%220.40.81%
11-2134.38%234.314.77%
12-2334.29%215.50.04%
11-2233.33%237.55.08%
11-2332.35%237.60.18%
10-2231.25%251.64.24%
10-2330.30%250.50.86%
9-2328.12%269.50.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Robert Morris (106.7)NECA83-57L0%0.0
11-13Pittsburgh (79.7)BEA86-78L0%0.0
11-15Drexel (69.6)CAAH62-80L0%0.0
11-17Pennsylvania (120.6)IvyH72-78L0%0.0
11-21Howard (312.9)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
11-25James Madison (250.0)CAAN69-86L0%0.0
11-26La Salle (70.5)A10A82-70L0%0.0
12-2Manhattan (106.7)MAACH55-71L0%0.0
12-4Marist (277.4)MAACA95-75L0%0.0
12-9Florida (15.6)SECN90-69L0%0.0
12-14Princeton (124.3)IvyH71-72L0%0.0
12-17MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEA66-73W100%0.0
12-22Monmouth (275.7)NECA62-74W100%0.0
12-30Stony Brook (136.9)AEA79-62L0%0.0
1-2Manhattan (106.7)MAACA77-88W100%0.0
1-6Marist (277.4)MAACH99-86W100%0.0
1-8St. Peter's (279.4)MAACA58-72W100%0.0
1-12Siena (224.5)MAACA83-79L0%0.0
1-16Fairfield (133.9)MAACA61-52L0%0.0
1-20Iona (38.8)MAACA91-71L0%0.0
1-22Canisius (322.3)MAACH89-65W100%0.0
1-26St. Peter's (279.4)MAACH90-55W100%0.0
1-29Siena (224.5)MAACH83-72W100%0.0
2-3Loyola MD (80.3)MAACA63-46L0%0.0
2-5Niagara (208.6)MAACH0-062%3.3
2-9Canisius (322.3)MAACA0-068%5.0
2-11Niagara (208.6)MAACA0-038%-3.5
2-15Iona (38.8)MAACH0-017%-10.4
2-18Albany (197.6)AEA0-033%-4.8
2-24Loyola MD (80.3)MAACH0-037%-3.5
2-26Fairfield (133.9)MAACH0-039%-3.0