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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:87.4
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:282
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-0
Probability of Auto Bid:50.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:172


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
28-487.50%75.530.26%
27-584.38%83.124.33%
26-583.87%94.818.46%
25-583.33%99.02.81%
26-681.25%90.57.48%
25-680.65%102.510.97%
24-680.00%106.42.44%
25-778.12%94.21.07%
24-777.42%110.81.62%
23-776.67%116.60.40%
24-875.00%91.70.03%
23-874.19%118.00.08%
22-873.33%129.70.03%
23-971.88%110.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Princeton (124.3)IvyA57-73W100%0.0
11-14Connecticut (31.9)BEA78-66L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina Central (222.3)MEACH87-83W100%0.0
11-19Lafayette (210.4)PatA70-76W100%0.0
11-22Pennsylvania (120.6)IvyA65-71W100%0.0
11-26Delaware St. (271.9)MEACH85-62W100%0.0
12-1Long Island (116.6)NECA78-73L0%0.0
12-3St. Francis NY (188.3)NECH90-50W100%0.0
12-6Hofstra (237.2)CAAH58-43W100%0.0
12-10Lehigh (108.1)PatH69-70L0%0.0
12-23Pittsburgh (79.7)BEA54-59W100%0.0
12-29Air Force (182.5)MWCN61-72W100%0.0
12-30Santa Clara (275.6)WCCA62-64W100%0.0
1-5Fairleigh Dickinson (324.0)NECA64-88W100%0.0
1-7Monmouth (275.7)NECA79-89W100%0.0
1-12Bryant (334.9)NECH78-61W100%0.0
1-14Central Connecticut (228.0)NECH67-58W100%0.0
1-19St. Francis NY (188.3)NECA61-73W100%0.0
1-21Long Island (116.6)NECH66-73L0%0.0
1-26Sacred Heart (238.3)NECA54-73W100%0.0
1-28Quinnipiac (166.4)NECA50-51W100%0.0
2-2Robert Morris (106.7)NECH80-69W100%0.0
2-4St. Francis PA (305.3)NECH72-54W100%0.0
2-8Mount St. Mary's (291.7)NECA0-090%13.8
2-11Mount St. Mary's (291.7)NECH0-097%20.5
2-16Fairleigh Dickinson (324.0)NECH0-099%24.7
2-18Monmouth (275.7)NECH0-098%22.8
2-23Bryant (334.9)NECA0-095%18.0
2-25Central Connecticut (228.0)NECA0-074%7.0