Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  American   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

American

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:294.1
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:302
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-12
Current OOC Record:3-12
Expected OOC Record:3-12
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:341


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
11-2035.48%294.1100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. Francis PA (286.7)NECA61-65L0%0.0
11-16Albany (301.3)AEH50-51L0%0.0
11-18Mount St. Mary's (171.3)NECH62-73L0%0.0
11-21Florida Atlantic (216.4)SBH69-81L0%0.0
11-23Fairfield (81.0)MAACH56-72L0%0.0
11-25Manhattan (226.2)MAACH62-69L0%0.0
11-28Maryland Eastern Shore (307.8)MEACA58-65L0%0.0
12-1Howard (329.6)MEACH59-53W100%0.0
12-5Georgetown (7.4)BEA46-73L0%0.0
12-16DePaul (212.2)BEA62-57W100%0.0
12-20MD Baltimore County (333.0)AEH57-59L0%0.0
12-21Penn St. (194.0)B10A57-76L0%0.0
12-28Florida (54.2)SECA60-76L0%0.0
1-2Brown (256.6)IvyA76-68W100%0.0
1-4Columbia (251.3)IvyA51-56L0%0.0
1-9Lehigh (151.8)PatA67-78L0%0.0
1-13Bucknell (258.5)PatA68-72L0%0.0
1-17Colgate (290.0)PatH73-63W100%0.0
1-20Army (247.3)PatA48-68L0%0.0
1-23Holy Cross (272.4)PatH71-64W100%0.0
1-27Navy (264.0)PatH69-59W100%0.0
1-30Lafayette (209.5)PatA76-66W100%0.0
2-6Lehigh (151.8)PatH65-77L0%0.0
2-11Bucknell (258.5)PatH59-73L0%0.0
2-13Colgate (290.0)PatA74-75L0%0.0
2-17Army (247.3)PatH57-54W100%0.0
2-21Holy Cross (272.4)PatA51-64L0%0.0
2-24Navy (264.0)PatA80-77W100%0.0
2-27Lafayette (209.5)PatH78-60W100%0.0
3-3Navy (264.0)PatH62-60W100%0.0
3-7Lehigh (151.8)PatA57-79L0%0.0