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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:231.0
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:219
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:130


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rhode Island (119.0)A10A65-42L0%0.0
11-17Hampton (155.0)MEACH48-61L0%0.0
11-21St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA68-48L0%0.0
11-25VCU (37.0)A10A72-44L0%0.0
11-28New Hampshire (177.0)AEA50-68W100%0.0
12-1Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA81-56L0%0.0
12-4Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA56-60W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (185.0)NECA55-48L0%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (59.0)AEH68-86L0%0.0
12-20Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH64-79L0%0.0
12-22LSU (94.0)SECA79-51L0%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (255.0)PatA75-67L0%0.0
1-3Colgate (241.0)PatH37-56L0%0.0
1-6Bucknell (183.0)PatA72-54L0%0.0
1-9Lehigh (168.0)PatH50-65L0%0.0
1-13Boston University (196.0)PatH50-61L0%0.0
1-17Army (214.0)PatA65-45L0%0.0
1-20Lafayette (329.0)PatA73-81W100%0.0
1-27Navy (216.0)PatA58-63W100%0.0
1-30Colgate (241.0)PatA49-54W100%0.0
2-1Holy Cross (248.0)PatH58-45W100%0.0
2-3Bucknell (183.0)PatH69-55W100%0.0
2-6Lehigh (168.0)PatA72-49L0%0.0
2-10Boston University (196.0)PatA71-51L0%0.0
2-13Army (214.0)PatH59-65L0%0.0
2-17Lafayette (329.0)PatH60-59W100%0.0
2-21Holy Cross (248.0)PatA70-71W100%0.0
2-24Navy (216.0)PatH72-65W100%0.0
2-27Loyola MD (255.0)PatH67-66W100%0.0
3-3Boston University (196.0)PatA64-69W100%0.0
3-6Lehigh (168.0)PatA78-62L0%0.0