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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:289.8
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:328
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:344


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
18-1358.06%169.00.01%
17-1454.84%210.30.03%
16-1453.33%239.00.16%
15-1451.72%260.50.22%
16-1551.61%226.60.24%
15-1550.00%254.71.83%
15-1648.39%236.80.71%
14-1548.28%274.32.38%
14-1646.67%265.25.89%
14-1745.16%246.40.87%
13-1644.83%284.411.50%
13-1743.33%271.97.86%
13-1841.94%258.30.57%
12-1741.38%293.224.63%
12-1840.00%282.85.19%
12-1938.71%270.80.16%
11-1837.93%301.223.91%
11-1936.67%292.41.54%
11-2035.48%284.00.06%
10-1934.48%309.610.48%
10-2033.33%303.40.22%
9-2031.03%317.91.53%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Air Force (182.5)MWCA87-71L0%0.0
11-12The Citadel (330.9)SCN72-83L0%0.0
11-19Central Connecticut (228.0)NECA67-51L0%0.0
11-22Bryant (334.9)NECH69-65W100%0.0
11-26Yale (125.1)IvyH75-84L0%0.0
11-30NJ Inst of Technology (291.1)GWCH53-54L0%0.0
12-3Binghamton (343.4)AEA50-70W100%0.0
12-7Marist (277.4)MAACA59-56L0%0.0
12-10La Salle (70.5)A10A76-64L0%0.0
12-18Texas Pan American (307.0)GWCH61-59W100%0.0
12-21Dartmouth (321.3)IvyH67-64W100%0.0
12-28Presbyterian (251.0)BSthA71-64L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis NY (188.3)NECH79-70W100%0.0
1-3Longwood (312.8)indH96-77W100%0.0
1-7Bucknell (81.4)PatH59-75L0%0.0
1-11Lafayette (210.4)PatA75-63L0%0.0
1-14Navy (316.2)PatA62-75W100%0.0
1-18Colgate (294.4)PatH91-75W100%0.0
1-21American (152.6)PatA67-55L0%0.0
1-25Holy Cross (225.7)PatH74-68W100%0.0
1-29Lehigh (108.1)PatA83-64L0%0.0
2-4Bucknell (81.4)PatA81-68L0%0.0
2-8Lafayette (210.4)PatH0-052%0.5
2-11Navy (316.2)PatH0-074%7.2
2-15Colgate (294.4)PatA0-053%0.8
2-18American (152.6)PatH0-039%-2.9
2-22Holy Cross (225.7)PatA0-034%-4.6
2-25Lehigh (108.1)PatH0-016%-10.9