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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Monmouth

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:274.9
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:202
Current Record:7-18
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:151


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
14-1942.42%194.00.01%
14-2041.18%196.50.02%
13-1940.62%232.00.01%
13-2039.39%205.30.03%
13-2138.24%204.60.08%
12-2037.50%236.00.67%
12-2136.36%225.70.22%
12-2235.29%214.30.12%
11-2134.38%249.85.77%
11-2233.33%235.61.03%
11-2332.35%224.70.12%
10-2132.26%267.00.47%
10-2231.25%262.719.76%
10-2330.30%249.51.01%
10-2429.41%247.00.03%
9-2229.03%278.210.84%
9-2328.12%274.625.93%
9-2427.27%262.20.23%
8-2325.81%288.621.07%
8-2425.00%285.15.62%
7-2422.58%296.76.90%
7-2521.88%291.80.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Villanova (105.3)BEA106-70L0%0.0
11-14Virginia Tech (95.1)ACCA91-46L0%0.0
11-15George Mason (90.6)CAAN71-39L0%0.0
11-21Albany (206.4)AEN85-49L0%0.0
11-22Brown (307.6)IvyN79-71L0%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (35.8)SECA95-73L0%0.0
12-1St. Francis PA (304.6)NECA71-49L0%0.0
12-3Robert Morris (106.1)NECA69-51L0%0.0
12-6Navy (316.2)PatA67-69W100%0.0
12-10Fordham (248.5)A10H80-65W100%0.0
12-12Rutgers (147.8)BEA81-66L0%0.0
12-22Rider (209.8)MAACH62-74L0%0.0
12-28Lafayette (210.0)PatA69-54L0%0.0
1-1North Carolina (5.2)ACCA102-65L0%0.0
1-5Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECH73-59W100%0.0
1-7Wagner (86.8)NECH79-89L0%0.0
1-10Harvard (45.6)IvyH61-70L0%0.0
1-12St. Francis NY (187.8)NECA81-64L0%0.0
1-14Long Island (116.2)NECA106-86L0%0.0
1-19St. Francis PA (304.6)NECH68-50W100%0.0
1-21Robert Morris (106.1)NECH73-81L0%0.0
1-26Central Connecticut (227.1)NECA56-58W100%0.0
1-28Bryant (335.4)NECA68-78W100%0.0
2-2Sacred Heart (237.3)NECH63-56W100%0.0
2-4Quinnipiac (165.8)NECH48-71L0%0.0
2-8Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECA0-045%-1.4
2-11Fairleigh Dickinson (324.2)NECH0-068%5.2
2-16Mount St. Mary's (290.0)NECA0-030%-5.6
2-18Wagner (86.8)NECA0-02%-22.7
2-23St. Francis NY (187.8)NECH0-030%-5.8
2-25Long Island (116.2)NECH0-020%-9.2