Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Dayton   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:32.9
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:40
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:15.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:17


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-681.82%10.40.73%
27-779.41%13.00.22%
26-778.79%12.93.66%
25-778.12%17.51.27%
24-777.42%21.10.92%
26-876.47%17.12.76%
25-875.76%17.85.45%
24-875.00%22.45.12%
23-874.19%26.06.21%
25-973.53%23.46.17%
24-972.73%27.06.83%
23-971.88%32.311.53%
22-970.97%35.07.24%
24-1070.59%30.55.73%
23-1069.70%36.06.16%
22-1068.75%42.511.66%
21-1067.74%49.23.12%
23-1167.65%39.32.55%
22-1166.67%44.92.81%
21-1165.62%51.55.20%
22-1264.71%46.90.50%
20-1164.52%58.81.43%
21-1263.64%54.90.63%
20-1262.50%60.21.40%
21-1361.76%58.00.06%
19-1261.29%68.90.27%
20-1360.61%61.30.06%
19-1359.38%67.00.14%
20-1458.82%59.00.01%
18-1358.06%74.90.13%
19-1457.58%72.00.01%
17-1454.84%84.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Creighton (123.8)MVCH90-80W100%0.0
11-19Georgia Tech (27.1)ACCN63-59W100%0.0
11-20Villanova (6.9)BEN65-71L0%0.0
11-22Kansas St. (7.1)B12N75-83L0%0.0
11-28Towson (293.3)CAAH74-69W100%0.0
12-2Miami OH (135.4)MACA65-58W100%0.0
12-5Lehigh (163.0)PatH89-71W100%0.0
12-8George Mason (136.9)CAAA56-55W100%0.0
12-11Old Dominion (34.2)CAAH58-50W100%0.0
12-19Presbyterian (326.6)BSthH71-52W100%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (132.3)SCH65-49W100%0.0
12-29Boston University (147.9)AEH74-60W100%0.0
1-1New Mexico (15.6)MWCA66-68L0%0.0
1-5Ball St. (211.8)MACH59-35W100%0.0
1-9Duquesne (127.1)A10H78-72W100%0.0
1-13Fordham (299.0)A10A74-58W100%0.0
1-16Xavier (25.4)A10A74-78L0%0.0
1-20George Washington (137.2)A10H66-51W100%0.0
1-23Saint Joseph's (183.7)A10A59-60L0%0.0
1-26Rhode Island (22.6)A10H64-65L0%0.0
1-30St. Bonaventure (173.2)A10A75-58W100%0.0
2-6Xavier (25.4)A10H90-65W100%0.0
2-10Charlotte (48.7)A10H0-078%8.6
2-13St. Louis (128.1)A10A0-064%3.9
2-18La Salle (140.3)A10H0-089%13.5
2-21Duquesne (127.1)A10A0-070%5.8
2-24Temple (26.0)A10A0-035%-4.3
2-27Massachusetts (197.2)A10H0-094%16.5
3-4Richmond (39.3)A10A0-041%-2.5
3-6St. Louis (128.1)A10H0-086%11.9