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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Dayton

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:49
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:9


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
25-778.12%21.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dayton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH84-53W100%0.0
11-17Alabama (73.0)SECH80-48W100%0.0
11-21William & Mary (67.0)CAAH69-66W100%0.0
11-26Iowa (28.0)B10N82-77W100%0.0
11-27Monmouth (52.0)MAACN73-70W100%0.0
11-29Xavier (7.0)BEN61-90L0%0.0
12-5North Florida (161.0)ASunH86-71W100%0.0
12-9Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA67-72W100%0.0
12-12Chattanooga (50.0)SCH59-61L0%0.0
12-19Furman (167.0)SCH70-50W100%0.0
12-22Miami OH (195.0)MACH64-63W100%0.0
12-30Arkansas (133.0)SECH85-81W100%0.0
1-2Duquesne (162.0)A10A58-66W100%0.0
1-6Massachusetts (171.0)A10H93-63W100%0.0
1-9La Salle (232.0)A10A61-57L0%0.0
1-12Davidson (64.0)A10H80-74W100%0.0
1-15George Washington (68.0)A10H77-70W100%0.0
1-19St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A79-85W100%0.0
1-24Fordham (176.0)A10A50-64W100%0.0
1-27Saint Louis (206.0)A10H73-37W100%0.0
1-30La Salle (232.0)A10H59-44W100%0.0
2-6George Mason (201.0)A10A64-98W100%0.0
2-9Duquesne (162.0)A10H76-74W100%0.0
2-12Rhode Island (119.0)A10A66-68W100%0.0
2-17Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A79-70L0%0.0
2-20St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H72-79L0%0.0
2-23Saint Louis (206.0)A10A49-52W100%0.0
2-27Rhode Island (119.0)A10H66-75L0%0.0
3-1Richmond (121.0)A10A84-85W100%0.0
3-5VCU (37.0)A10H68-67W100%0.0
3-11Richmond (121.0)A10N69-54W100%0.0
3-12Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N79-82L0%0.0