- Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:309
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:291


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (55.0)SECH41-59L0%0.0
11-16College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH58-72L0%0.0
11-19USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA55-67W100%0.0
11-25UMBC (335.0)AEA54-75W100%0.0
11-27UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA66-70W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville (289.0)ASunN71-65W100%0.0
11-29IPFW (71.0)SumN53-75W100%0.0
12-2Penn (283.0)IvyA59-65W100%0.0
12-7Oregon (2.0)P12N47-67L0%0.0
12-12VMI (316.0)SCA62-68W100%0.0
12-14USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH57-66L0%0.0
12-22Furman (167.0)SCH62-49W100%0.0
12-30Bucknell (183.0)PatA88-58L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (248.0)PatH65-60W100%0.0
1-6Boston University (196.0)PatA67-83W100%0.0
1-9Colgate (241.0)PatA68-71W100%0.0
1-13Loyola MD (255.0)PatH60-52W100%0.0
1-16Lafayette (329.0)PatH87-61W100%0.0
1-20Lehigh (168.0)PatA64-69W100%0.0
1-27American (231.0)PatH58-63L0%0.0
1-30Holy Cross (248.0)PatA87-80L0%0.0
2-1Army (214.0)PatA50-64W100%0.0
2-3Boston University (196.0)PatH72-83L0%0.0
2-6Colgate (241.0)PatH55-58L0%0.0
2-10Loyola MD (255.0)PatA51-71W100%0.0
2-13Lafayette (329.0)PatA68-74W100%0.0
2-17Lehigh (168.0)PatH74-77L0%0.0
2-20Army (214.0)PatH78-80L0%0.0
2-24American (231.0)PatA72-65L0%0.0
2-27Bucknell (183.0)PatH73-77L0%0.0
3-1Lafayette (329.0)PatH78-70W100%0.0
3-3Lehigh (168.0)PatA65-63L0%0.0