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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:316.2
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:203
Current Record:2-19
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:0-8
Expected Conf Record:2-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:245


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
8-2226.67%257.80.04%
7-2125.00%287.40.09%
7-2224.14%280.50.13%
7-2323.33%265.70.09%
6-2221.43%296.01.61%
6-2320.69%291.10.51%
6-2420.00%283.40.21%
5-2317.86%305.312.35%
5-2417.24%301.60.95%
5-2516.67%293.50.33%
4-2414.29%314.034.74%
4-2513.79%310.60.96%
4-2613.33%303.30.13%
3-2510.71%321.335.87%
3-2610.34%317.80.38%
2-267.14%327.311.60%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Longwood (312.8)indA70-78W100%0.0
11-16Siena (224.5)MAACA65-56L0%0.0
11-19Quinnipiac (166.4)NECA78-54L0%0.0
11-22Tulane (171.5)CUSAH55-57L0%0.0
11-25Albany (197.6)AEA69-62L0%0.0
11-27Mount St. Mary's (291.7)NECH64-56W100%0.0
11-30Maryland Eastern Shore (319.0)MEACA59-46L0%0.0
12-3Elon (223.0)SCA51-48L0%0.0
12-6Monmouth (275.7)NECH67-69L0%0.0
12-10Missouri (13.3)B12A84-59L0%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (251.0)BSthA58-42L0%0.0
12-30Mercer (105.1)ASunH56-65L0%0.0
1-1Norfolk St. (125.3)MEACH65-71L0%0.0
1-7Lafayette (210.4)PatH63-65L0%0.0
1-11Holy Cross (225.7)PatA73-69L0%0.0
1-14Army (289.8)PatH62-75L0%0.0
1-18American (152.6)PatH60-67L0%0.0
1-21Colgate (294.4)PatA65-54L0%0.0
1-26Lehigh (108.1)PatA71-60L0%0.0
1-28Bucknell (81.4)PatH51-66L0%0.0
2-4Lafayette (210.4)PatA62-41L0%0.0
2-8Holy Cross (225.7)PatH0-044%-1.6
2-11Army (289.8)PatA0-026%-7.2
2-15American (152.6)PatA0-011%-13.4
2-18Colgate (294.4)PatH0-063%3.8
2-22Lehigh (108.1)PatH0-09%-14.7
2-25Bucknell (81.4)PatA0-03%-20.3