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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Jacksonville

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:282.9
Current RPI:286
Expected SOS:176
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:3-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:98


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-2037.50%197.00.01%
11-2035.48%210.00.02%
10-1934.48%240.00.01%
11-2134.38%205.70.03%
10-2033.33%237.40.22%
10-2132.26%231.50.11%
10-2231.25%231.60.08%
9-2031.03%253.10.71%
9-2130.00%251.82.88%
9-2229.03%249.00.38%
9-2328.12%242.00.04%
8-2127.59%270.110.30%
8-2226.67%267.27.50%
8-2325.81%266.10.15%
7-2224.14%283.136.29%
7-2323.33%280.33.95%
6-2320.69%292.731.94%
5-2417.24%300.15.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jacksonville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida St. (25.0)ACCA79-67L0%0.0
11-16Savannah St. (193.5)MEACA73-70L0%0.0
11-18Samford (249.0)SCH70-57W100%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (257.8)MEACA55-65W100%0.0
11-25Florida (17.2)SECA107-62L0%0.0
11-28Marquette (17.6)BEA88-56L0%0.0
12-3North Florida (177.6)ASunA80-58L0%0.0
12-11Furman (232.7)SCA85-79L0%0.0
12-15Winthrop (265.9)BSthH45-59L0%0.0
12-18Wofford (168.5)SCA63-57L0%0.0
12-22UAB (146.2)CUSAA70-65L0%0.0
12-29Alabama (29.7)SECA72-55L0%0.0
1-2Lipscomb (209.3)ASunH71-77L0%0.0
1-4Belmont (53.1)ASunH63-75L0%0.0
1-7Stetson (263.0)ASunA73-61L0%0.0
1-9Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunA77-66L0%0.0
1-14East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunH58-72L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunH77-74W100%0.0
1-21Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunA50-66W100%0.0
1-23Mercer (103.9)ASunA75-65L0%0.0
1-28Belmont (53.1)ASunA85-71L0%0.0
1-30Lipscomb (209.3)ASunA82-68L0%0.0
2-4Florida Gulf Coast (212.7)ASunH55-65L0%0.0
2-6Stetson (263.0)ASunH74-63W100%0.0
2-11South Carolina Upstate (156.4)ASunA0-019%-9.4
2-13East Tennessee St. (192.3)ASunA0-018%-10.0
2-18Mercer (103.9)ASunH0-020%-9.1
2-20Kennesaw St. (320.2)ASunH0-082%9.9
2-24North Florida (177.6)ASunH0-046%-1.2