Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Valparaiso   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Valparaiso

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:185.4
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:141
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:151


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-1741.38%185.4100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Ball St. (218.5)MACA78-88L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina (94.1)ACCA77-88L0%0.0
11-22Michigan St. (29.5)B10A60-90L0%0.0
11-27Georgia Southern (288.0)SCA97-89W100%0.0
11-28Troy (109.6)SBN64-80L0%0.0
12-5Butler (11.9)HorzA67-84L0%0.0
12-9Purdue (12.0)B10A62-86L0%0.0
12-12Toledo (324.5)MACH81-49W100%0.0
12-22IUPU Fort Wayne (225.3)SumA72-75L0%0.0
12-27Akron (84.2)MACA57-77L0%0.0
12-31Wisconsin Milwaukee (130.6)HorzH55-54W100%0.0
1-2Wisconsin Green Bay (107.0)HorzH58-64L0%0.0
1-8Detroit (167.4)HorzA67-77L0%0.0
1-10Wright St. (80.6)HorzA57-59L0%0.0
1-14Youngstown St. (270.5)HorzH70-66W100%0.0
1-16Cleveland St. (166.0)HorzH78-71W100%0.0
1-21Illinois Chicago (291.0)HorzA64-58W100%0.0
1-23Loyola Chicago (213.2)HorzA86-67W100%0.0
1-29Wisconsin Milwaukee (130.6)HorzA82-85L0%0.0
1-31Wisconsin Green Bay (107.0)HorzA84-79W100%0.0
2-4Wright St. (80.6)HorzH71-75L0%0.0
2-6Detroit (167.4)HorzH74-70W100%0.0
2-8Illinois Chicago (291.0)HorzH83-82W100%0.0
2-11Cleveland St. (166.0)HorzA71-80L0%0.0
2-13Youngstown St. (270.5)HorzA77-75W100%0.0
2-17Loyola Chicago (213.2)HorzH84-73W100%0.0
2-20Bowling Green (188.3)MACA70-87L0%0.0
2-26Butler (11.9)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
3-2Detroit (167.4)HorzH82-89L0%0.0