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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:49.0
Current RPI:49
Expected SOS:161
Current Record:24-6
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:48


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Valparaiso.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13IPFW (71.0)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-15Iona (77.0)MAACH83-58W100%0.0
11-17Rhode Island (119.0)A10A55-58W100%0.0
11-22Oregon (2.0)P12A73-67L0%0.0
11-24Oregon St. (33.0)P12A57-63W100%0.0
11-28Ball St. (179.0)MACA69-66L0%0.0
12-3Belmont (98.0)OVCH61-57W100%0.0
12-9Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA63-69W100%0.0
12-11Chicago St. (348.0)WACA53-71W100%0.0
12-19Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH74-45W100%0.0
12-28Belmont (98.0)OVCA85-81L0%0.0
1-2Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH75-47W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (116.0)HorzA67-84W100%0.0
1-10Detroit (204.0)HorzA74-92W100%0.0
1-14Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH68-56W100%0.0
1-16Green Bay (112.0)HorzH85-70W100%0.0
1-18Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA65-96W100%0.0
1-22Wright St. (146.0)HorzA73-62L0%0.0
1-24Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA46-71W100%0.0
1-28Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH77-52W100%0.0
1-30Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH97-68W100%0.0
2-6Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA55-73W100%0.0
2-11Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH64-52W100%0.0
2-13Wright St. (146.0)HorzH59-61L0%0.0
2-16Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA43-66W100%0.0
2-19Oakland (116.0)HorzH86-84W100%0.0
2-21Detroit (204.0)HorzH90-74W100%0.0
2-26Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA76-80W100%0.0
2-28Green Bay (112.0)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
3-7Green Bay (112.0)HorzN92-99L0%0.0