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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Detroit

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:180.8
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:167
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:162


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1263.64%95.20.06%
19-1261.29%104.30.03%
20-1360.61%106.10.58%
19-1359.38%133.20.28%
18-1358.06%148.40.39%
19-1457.58%118.01.77%
17-1356.67%157.50.21%
18-1456.25%142.92.90%
17-1454.84%166.44.07%
18-1554.55%129.03.04%
16-1453.33%174.31.44%
17-1553.12%154.28.45%
16-1551.61%180.610.31%
17-1651.52%141.23.82%
16-1650.00%170.07.63%
15-1550.00%189.36.38%
16-1748.48%154.51.96%
15-1648.39%193.011.79%
15-1746.88%181.33.63%
14-1646.67%202.310.61%
15-1845.45%165.40.45%
14-1745.16%202.26.00%
14-1843.75%188.30.91%
13-1743.33%214.78.70%
14-1942.42%183.00.01%
13-1841.94%211.21.28%
13-1940.62%201.30.09%
12-1840.00%227.82.85%
12-1938.71%220.50.10%
11-1936.67%240.50.25%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Detroit.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Notre Dame (71.9)BEA59-53L0%0.0
11-21George Washington (201.3)A10N86-73L0%0.0
11-22Bowling Green (155.4)MACA67-61L0%0.0
11-23Austin Peay (197.8)OVCN94-93W100%0.0
11-26Akron (44.8)MACA81-63L0%0.0
12-1Youngstown St. (158.8)HorzH61-64L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzH61-66L0%0.0
12-5St. John's (162.6)BEH69-63W100%0.0
12-8Western Michigan (182.0)MACH92-81W100%0.0
12-11Alabama (29.7)SECA62-54L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi St. (48.3)SECH75-80L0%0.0
12-22Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH80-56W100%0.0
12-29Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzA63-59L0%0.0
12-31Loyola Chicago (312.6)HorzA54-65W100%0.0
1-6Valparaiso (105.3)HorzH71-73L0%0.0
1-8Butler (146.3)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
1-12Wisconsin Green Bay (187.9)HorzA73-80W100%0.0
1-14Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.0)HorzA84-74L0%0.0
1-21Wright St. (220.5)HorzH69-53W100%0.0
1-25Loyola Chicago (312.6)HorzH67-52W100%0.0
1-27Illinois Chicago (292.2)HorzH70-66W100%0.0
2-2Valparaiso (105.3)HorzA78-73L0%0.0
2-4Butler (146.3)HorzA61-65W100%0.0
2-10Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.0)HorzH0-053%0.9
2-12Wisconsin Green Bay (187.9)HorzH0-071%5.9
2-15Wright St. (220.5)HorzA0-056%1.6
2-18James Madison (249.9)CAAH0-079%8.8
2-23Cleveland St. (55.0)HorzA0-016%-10.9
2-25Youngstown St. (158.8)HorzA0-042%-2.1