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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:144
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:306


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Davidson (64.0)A10A90-85L0%0.0
11-18UC Irvine (75.0)BWH60-61L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH65-54W100%0.0
11-28Miami OH (195.0)MACA64-63L0%0.0
12-2Stetson (303.0)ASunA85-94W100%0.0
12-5Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH88-58W100%0.0
12-8Massachusetts (171.0)A10H67-63W100%0.0
12-12Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH75-61W100%0.0
12-19Detroit (204.0)HorzA95-89L0%0.0
12-22Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH101-96W100%0.0
12-29George Washington (68.0)A10H50-67L0%0.0
1-2East Carolina (217.0)AmerA68-71W100%0.0
1-6South Florida (230.0)AmerH75-64W100%0.0
1-10SMU (13.0)AmerA88-73L0%0.0
1-16East Carolina (217.0)AmerH89-69W100%0.0
1-20South Florida (230.0)AmerA54-64W100%0.0
1-24Tulsa (58.0)AmerA75-60L0%0.0
1-26Memphis (139.0)AmerH86-97L0%0.0
1-31Connecticut (32.0)AmerH41-67L0%0.0
2-4Tulane (227.0)AmerA62-70W100%0.0
2-6Temple (60.0)AmerH60-62L0%0.0
2-9Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH51-69L0%0.0
2-13Houston (87.0)AmerA82-58L0%0.0
2-17Memphis (139.0)AmerA73-56L0%0.0
2-21Tulsa (58.0)AmerH67-75L0%0.0
2-24Houston (87.0)AmerH61-88L0%0.0
2-27Temple (60.0)AmerA63-61L0%0.0
3-2Tulane (227.0)AmerH73-65W100%0.0
3-6Connecticut (32.0)AmerA67-46L0%0.0
3-10Tulane (227.0)AmerH63-65L0%0.0