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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Cincinnati

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:91.3
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:107
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:2.34%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:319


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-779.41%28.00.01%
26-876.47%31.50.28%
25-875.76%49.00.11%
24-875.00%64.00.24%
26-974.29%28.60.08%
25-973.53%41.90.84%
24-972.73%58.31.14%
23-971.88%73.31.91%
25-1071.43%38.00.57%
24-1070.59%52.11.79%
23-1069.70%67.94.07%
22-1068.75%84.16.53%
24-1168.57%48.81.67%
23-1167.65%64.63.52%
24-1266.67%45.60.05%
22-1166.67%80.49.83%
23-1265.71%58.21.61%
21-1165.62%96.810.81%
22-1264.71%75.63.74%
23-1363.89%57.20.17%
21-1263.64%91.512.12%
22-1362.86%72.30.76%
20-1262.50%108.611.17%
21-1361.76%88.73.10%
22-1461.11%67.30.26%
20-1360.61%103.57.78%
21-1460.00%85.70.48%
19-1359.38%121.06.83%
20-1458.82%102.31.82%
21-1558.33%82.00.04%
19-1457.58%119.22.64%
20-1557.14%95.70.20%
18-1456.25%135.32.28%
19-1555.88%114.90.32%
18-1554.55%132.20.56%
17-1553.12%149.30.54%
17-1651.52%146.80.06%
16-1650.00%161.00.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH65-40W100%0.0
11-15Jacksonville St. (247.7)OVCH73-59W100%0.0
11-19Presbyterian (251.9)BSthH54-56L0%0.0
11-21Northwestern St. (179.3)SlndH71-43W100%0.0
11-25Marshall (62.5)CUSAH69-73L0%0.0
11-29Miami OH (208.4)MACH56-47W100%0.0
12-2Georgia (139.9)SECA51-57W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (62.4)A10A76-53L0%0.0
12-14Wright St. (220.5)HorzA58-78W100%0.0
12-17Radford (335.2)BSthH101-70W100%0.0
12-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (322.7)SWACH101-53W100%0.0
12-23Chicago St. (335.1)GWCH95-60W100%0.0
12-29Oklahoma (99.1)B12H56-55W100%0.0
1-1Pittsburgh (74.0)BEA63-66W100%0.0
1-4Notre Dame (71.9)BEH71-55W100%0.0
1-7St. John's (162.6)BEH55-57L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (15.3)BEA64-68W100%0.0
1-14Villanova (105.3)BEH82-78W100%0.0
1-18Connecticut (36.1)BEA67-70W100%0.0
1-21West Virginia (33.4)BEA77-74L0%0.0
1-23Syracuse (3.4)BEH53-60L0%0.0
1-28Rutgers (147.8)BEA61-54L0%0.0
2-4DePaul (195.3)BEH74-66W100%0.0
2-8St. John's (162.6)BEA0-065%4.2
2-11Marquette (17.6)BEA0-022%-8.3
2-15Providence (160.2)BEH0-079%8.9
2-18Seton Hall (60.2)BEH0-065%4.1
2-23Louisville (24.8)BEH0-048%-0.7
2-26South Florida (103.2)BEA0-057%1.9
2-29Marquette (17.6)BEH0-044%-1.7
3-3Villanova (105.3)BEA0-046%-1.0