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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Butler

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:147.9
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:125
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:3.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:24


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
22-1264.71%86.00.01%
20-1262.50%92.30.03%
21-1361.76%84.60.39%
20-1360.61%105.20.16%
19-1359.38%112.40.42%
20-1458.82%93.11.69%
18-1358.06%123.30.27%
19-1457.58%115.73.04%
18-1456.25%135.03.52%
19-1555.88%104.03.09%
17-1454.84%139.11.58%
18-1554.55%125.58.78%
17-1553.12%147.011.45%
18-1652.94%116.83.39%
16-1551.61%152.86.49%
17-1651.52%138.09.06%
17-1750.00%128.81.87%
16-1650.00%159.012.60%
16-1748.48%151.14.25%
15-1648.39%166.610.87%
16-1847.06%136.10.31%
15-1746.88%171.46.39%
15-1845.45%161.30.66%
14-1745.16%180.36.65%
14-1843.75%179.21.16%
14-1942.42%164.00.07%
13-1841.94%193.41.62%
13-1940.62%188.00.01%
12-1938.71%204.10.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Evansville (160.7)MVCA80-77L0%0.0
11-15Chattanooga (277.7)SCH57-46W100%0.0
11-19Louisville (28.9)BEH53-69L0%0.0
11-21Savannah St. (198.2)MEACH57-42W100%0.0
11-23Gardner Webb (267.4)BSthH68-66W100%0.0
11-27Indiana (23.1)B10A75-59L0%0.0
12-3Valparaiso (104.1)HorzH71-77L0%0.0
12-7Xavier (61.0)A10H61-73L0%0.0
12-10Ball St. (221.1)MACA58-55L0%0.0
12-17Purdue (70.2)B10N67-65W100%0.0
12-20Gonzaga (29.1)WCCA71-55L0%0.0
12-22Stanford (86.0)P12A66-71W100%0.0
12-29Wisconsin Green Bay (189.0)HorzH53-49W100%0.0
12-31Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.1)HorzH54-50W100%0.0
1-6Wright St. (219.7)HorzA62-63W100%0.0
1-8Detroit (179.6)HorzA76-65L0%0.0
1-13Cleveland St. (57.5)HorzH69-76L0%0.0
1-15Youngstown St. (167.2)HorzH71-55W100%0.0
1-19Illinois Chicago (289.4)HorzA49-57W100%0.0
1-21Loyola Chicago (309.5)HorzA57-63W100%0.0
1-26Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.1)HorzA53-42L0%0.0
1-28Wisconsin Green Bay (189.0)HorzA80-68L0%0.0
2-2Wright St. (219.7)HorzH64-53W100%0.0
2-4Detroit (179.6)HorzH61-65L0%0.0
2-9Youngstown St. (167.2)HorzA0-043%-1.9
2-11Cleveland St. (57.5)HorzA0-017%-10.5
2-14Loyola Chicago (309.5)HorzH0-088%12.9
2-18Indiana St. (138.6)MVCH0-058%2.1
2-21Illinois Chicago (289.4)HorzH0-084%10.7
2-24Valparaiso (104.1)HorzA0-035%-4.3