Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Creighton   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Creighton

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:123.8
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:82
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:4.76%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:146


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1263.64%63.80.05%
20-1360.61%71.80.54%
19-1359.38%79.70.34%
18-1358.06%88.80.48%
19-1457.58%81.72.68%
18-1456.25%90.23.61%
19-1555.88%92.50.06%
17-1454.84%101.84.72%
18-1554.55%93.44.42%
17-1553.12%104.39.89%
18-1652.94%105.40.53%
16-1551.61%118.715.25%
17-1651.52%108.04.02%
17-1750.00%119.20.60%
16-1650.00%121.312.15%
16-1748.48%129.01.97%
15-1648.39%137.616.66%
16-1847.06%131.00.24%
15-1746.88%142.58.11%
15-1845.45%146.80.39%
14-1745.16%158.48.63%
15-1944.12%144.30.03%
14-1843.75%160.62.31%
14-1942.42%161.70.03%
13-1841.94%176.51.95%
13-1940.62%171.10.12%
12-1938.71%192.60.21%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Dayton (32.9)A10A80-90L0%0.0
11-17Florida A&M (327.6)MEACH78-53W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas Little Rock (266.3)SBH80-65W100%0.0
11-26Michigan (144.8)B10N76-83L0%0.0
11-27Xavier (25.4)A10N67-80L0%0.0
11-29Iona (77.3)MAACN55-63L0%0.0
12-6Nebraska (130.3)B12H67-61W100%0.0
12-12George Mason (136.9)CAAA72-75L0%0.0
12-16Savannah St. (321.5)indH77-62W100%0.0
12-19New Mexico (15.6)MWCA61-66L0%0.0
12-22Houston Baptist (342.3)GWCH85-56W100%0.0
12-29Northern Iowa (19.8)MVCH52-60L0%0.0
1-1Indiana St. (94.9)MVCA64-70L0%0.0
1-3Evansville (277.0)MVCA72-64W100%0.0
1-6Drake (181.3)MVCH73-69W100%0.0
1-9Wichita St. (45.9)MVCA58-70L0%0.0
1-13Southern Illinois (133.0)MVCH71-69W100%0.0
1-16Wichita St. (45.9)MVCH57-56W100%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (105.7)MVCA62-71L0%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (85.2)MVCH76-72W100%0.0
1-27Bradley (117.8)MVCA73-68W100%0.0
1-30Drake (181.3)MVCA74-79L0%0.0
2-3Evansville (277.0)MVCH84-71W100%0.0
2-6Missouri St. (85.2)MVCA52-70L0%0.0
2-9Indiana St. (94.9)MVCH0-068%5.2
2-13Illinois St. (105.7)MVCH0-058%2.1
2-16Northern Iowa (19.8)MVCA0-013%-12.1
2-20Loyola Chicago (184.9)HorzH0-081%9.4
2-23Southern Illinois (133.0)MVCA0-034%-4.5
2-27Bradley (117.8)MVCH0-067%4.7