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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Creighton

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:20.8
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:96
Current Record:21-3
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:11-2
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:33.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:138


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
30-390.91%7.46.69%
29-487.88%11.018.67%
28-487.50%19.04.50%
27-487.10%25.12.59%
28-584.85%15.320.68%
27-584.38%24.79.65%
26-583.87%32.25.15%
27-681.82%20.611.99%
26-681.25%31.76.61%
25-680.65%39.63.97%
26-778.79%26.33.98%
25-778.12%38.82.52%
24-777.42%48.01.46%
25-875.76%34.50.64%
24-875.00%46.80.42%
23-874.19%57.10.27%
24-972.73%40.10.09%
23-971.88%49.20.05%
22-970.97%62.40.05%
23-1069.70%40.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Creighton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina A&T (262.0)MEACH97-65W100%0.0
11-13Chicago St. (337.0)GWCH95-61W100%0.0
11-16UAB (145.3)CUSAA60-70W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (147.8)B10N82-59W100%0.0
11-25Campbell (166.2)BSthH104-81W100%0.0
11-30San Diego St. (30.7)MWCA83-85W100%0.0
12-4Nebraska (128.3)B10H76-66W100%0.0
12-10Saint Joseph's (55.3)A10A80-71L0%0.0
12-17Houston Baptist (313.0)GWCH97-62W100%0.0
12-19Tulsa (106.0)CUSAA64-83W100%0.0
12-22Northwestern (75.3)B10H87-79W100%0.0
12-28Missouri St. (82.5)MVCH65-77L0%0.0
12-31Wichita St. (16.5)MVCA61-68W100%0.0
1-3Drake (142.8)MVCH76-59W100%0.0
1-7Bradley (253.9)MVCA83-92W100%0.0
1-10Northern Iowa (65.5)MVCH63-60W100%0.0
1-13Illinois St. (109.3)MVCA78-87W100%0.0
1-15Southern Illinois (231.8)MVCH90-71W100%0.0
1-18Missouri St. (82.5)MVCA65-66W100%0.0
1-21Indiana St. (138.6)MVCH75-49W100%0.0
1-25Drake (142.8)MVCA69-77W100%0.0
1-28Bradley (253.9)MVCH73-59W100%0.0
2-1Illinois St. (109.3)MVCH102-74W100%0.0
2-4Northern Iowa (65.5)MVCA65-62L0%0.0
2-7Evansville (160.7)MVCA0-075%7.4
2-11Wichita St. (16.5)MVCH0-057%1.9
2-14Southern Illinois (231.8)MVCA0-089%13.2
2-18Long Beach St. (34.1)BWH0-074%7.2
2-21Evansville (160.7)MVCH0-090%14.2
2-25Indiana St. (138.6)MVCA0-077%8.1