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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Tulsa

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:108
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:5.88%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:101


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-972.73%42.40.10%
23-1069.70%50.40.69%
22-1068.75%68.10.21%
21-1067.74%86.00.24%
22-1166.67%59.62.23%
21-1165.62%79.72.43%
22-1264.71%72.00.01%
20-1164.52%95.42.03%
21-1263.64%69.44.59%
20-1262.50%88.87.95%
21-1361.76%65.80.04%
19-1261.29%106.56.67%
20-1360.61%80.95.56%
19-1359.38%99.412.68%
20-1458.82%79.40.42%
18-1358.06%117.412.29%
19-1457.58%93.94.30%
18-1456.25%111.410.79%
19-1555.88%92.60.74%
17-1454.84%129.210.93%
18-1554.55%109.02.45%
17-1553.12%126.34.98%
18-1652.94%105.30.27%
16-1551.61%144.04.65%
17-1651.52%124.10.62%
17-1750.00%110.00.02%
16-1650.00%140.50.94%
16-1748.48%136.00.04%
15-1648.39%159.90.89%
15-1746.88%151.40.09%
14-1745.16%173.90.14%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas Little Rock (188.4)SBH65-49W100%0.0
11-13Southeastern Louisiana (326.7)SlndH67-52W100%0.0
11-17Western Kentucky (242.0)SBN49-65W100%0.0
11-18Northwestern (75.3)B10N69-65L0%0.0
11-20Saint Joseph's (55.3)A10N79-75L0%0.0
11-22Jackson St. (306.8)SWACA51-57W100%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (82.5)MVCA69-64L0%0.0
11-30Oklahoma St. (127.8)B12A59-56L0%0.0
12-3Arizona St. (245.5)P12H64-67L0%0.0
12-7Wichita St. (16.5)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-17Texas Arlington (84.9)SlndH80-75W100%0.0
12-19Creighton (20.8)MVCH64-83L0%0.0
12-28Mercer (105.1)ASunH68-62W100%0.0
12-31Texas Christian (132.7)MWCA66-74W100%0.0
1-4Houston (234.8)CUSAA70-69L0%0.0
1-7Southern Methodist (218.7)CUSAH55-57L0%0.0
1-11Texas El Paso (179.7)CUSAH59-48W100%0.0
1-14East Carolina (158.1)CUSAA67-70W100%0.0
1-18Tulane (171.5)CUSAH60-56W100%0.0
1-21Rice (181.0)CUSAA46-70W100%0.0
1-25Central Florida (74.9)CUSAH66-61W100%0.0
1-28Southern Methodist (218.7)CUSAA60-66W100%0.0
2-4Marshall (62.5)CUSAH79-70W100%0.0
2-8Texas El Paso (179.7)CUSAA0-051%0.1
2-11Houston (234.8)CUSAH0-083%10.3
2-15Southern Mississippi (18.6)CUSAA0-025%-7.4
2-18Rice (181.0)CUSAH0-077%8.2
2-25Tulane (171.5)CUSAA0-047%-0.9
2-29UAB (145.3)CUSAA0-053%0.7
3-3Memphis (33.9)CUSAH0-037%-3.7