live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.

Houston

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:235.4
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:172
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:299


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
21-1165.62%80.00.01%
18-1260.00%146.00.02%
19-1359.38%112.50.02%
18-1358.06%137.60.05%
17-1356.67%161.70.19%
18-1456.25%125.80.14%
16-1355.17%186.50.34%
17-1454.84%152.50.19%
16-1453.33%180.51.25%
17-1553.12%142.40.15%
15-1451.72%206.22.16%
16-1551.61%172.80.65%
16-1650.00%160.90.40%
15-1550.00%196.44.80%
15-1648.39%189.51.10%
14-1548.28%222.48.81%
15-1746.88%181.80.29%
14-1646.67%212.69.52%
14-1745.16%207.11.49%
13-1644.83%238.618.21%
14-1843.75%201.00.16%
13-1743.33%230.79.41%
13-1841.94%225.20.94%
12-1741.38%254.120.28%
13-1940.62%218.00.06%
12-1840.00%247.14.49%
12-1938.71%236.70.17%
11-1837.93%267.211.68%
11-1936.67%261.50.70%
10-1934.48%278.62.31%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Grambling (341.9)SWACH88-42W100%0.0
11-14Utah Valley (206.6)GWCH84-71W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas (71.4)SECN78-87W100%0.0
11-22Oakland (140.4)SumH74-76L0%0.0
11-26Texas Christian (133.2)MWCH80-81L0%0.0
11-29Louisiana St. (91.6)SECH58-59L0%0.0
12-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (316.1)SlndH87-66W100%0.0
12-6Texas St. (317.6)SlndA81-78L0%0.0
12-17Oklahoma (99.1)B12N79-74L0%0.0
12-20Texas San Antonio (159.9)SlndH77-75W100%0.0
12-28North Carolina A&T (269.1)MEACH71-67W100%0.0
12-30Texas St. (317.6)SlndH94-71W100%0.0
1-4Tulsa (106.2)CUSAH70-69W100%0.0
1-7Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAA70-50L0%0.0
1-11Central Florida (77.0)CUSAA74-63L0%0.0
1-14Memphis (33.8)CUSAH55-89L0%0.0
1-18Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAA70-54L0%0.0
1-21East Carolina (158.6)CUSAH82-76W100%0.0
1-28Texas El Paso (180.1)CUSAH81-76W100%0.0
2-1UAB (146.2)CUSAA80-69L0%0.0
2-4Tulane (171.0)CUSAA75-54L0%0.0
2-8Rice (180.2)CUSAH0-054%1.1
2-11Tulsa (106.2)CUSAA0-017%-10.2
2-18Southern Mississippi (18.2)CUSAH0-024%-7.8
2-22Marshall (62.5)CUSAA0-013%-12.2
2-25Southern Methodist (217.6)CUSAH0-064%3.9
2-29Tulane (171.0)CUSAH0-045%-1.2
3-3Rice (180.2)CUSAA0-031%-5.5