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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:275.2
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:294
Current Record:8-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:305


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1457.58%196.00.01%
17-1454.84%227.40.05%
18-1554.55%190.20.12%
16-1453.33%235.80.05%
17-1553.12%215.50.10%
16-1551.61%237.80.77%
17-1651.52%203.40.21%
16-1650.00%227.20.37%
15-1550.00%250.70.49%
16-1748.48%209.90.22%
15-1648.39%246.93.27%
15-1746.88%231.80.85%
14-1646.67%261.53.73%
15-1845.45%222.90.31%
14-1745.16%254.47.10%
14-1843.75%242.31.03%
13-1743.33%271.712.31%
14-1942.42%233.90.16%
13-1841.94%262.58.38%
13-1940.62%253.20.97%
12-1840.00%281.420.81%
13-2039.39%247.90.08%
12-1938.71%273.76.11%
12-2037.50%268.70.44%
11-1936.67%289.917.96%
12-2136.36%274.00.01%
11-2035.48%284.12.82%
11-2134.38%276.30.10%
10-2033.33%297.48.56%
10-2132.26%292.80.43%
10-2231.25%290.00.01%
9-2130.00%304.61.94%
9-2229.03%297.80.04%
8-2226.67%312.00.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Texas St. (317.1)SlndN91-94L0%0.0
11-19South Carolina Upstate (158.8)ASunN70-75W100%0.0
11-20Texas Pan American (307.0)GWCA54-64W100%0.0
11-26Illinois Chicago (289.4)HorzH82-67W100%0.0
11-30NC Wilmington (210.2)CAAH75-73W100%0.0
12-3Chicago St. (337.0)GWCA61-73W100%0.0
12-7Temple (28.2)A10H58-77L0%0.0
12-10Loyola Chicago (309.5)HorzH55-57L0%0.0
12-17Youngstown St. (167.2)HorzH86-77W100%0.0
12-20Norfolk St. (125.3)MEACH70-72L0%0.0
12-22Florida Gulf Coast (205.9)ASunA83-80L0%0.0
12-28Cleveland St. (57.5)HorzH64-72L0%0.0
1-7Central Michigan (271.3)MACA85-69L0%0.0
1-10Ball St. (221.1)MACH68-70L0%0.0
1-14Western Michigan (181.2)MACA74-52L0%0.0
1-18Northern Illinois (337.4)MACH71-41W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Michigan (254.0)MACA41-38L0%0.0
1-25Miami OH (209.7)MACA61-63W100%0.0
1-28Kent St. (82.5)MACH61-77L0%0.0
2-1Akron (45.6)MACA86-72L0%0.0
2-4Buffalo (65.4)MACH65-72L0%0.0
2-8Ohio (60.3)MACH0-024%-7.8
2-11Bowling Green (156.2)MACA0-016%-10.6
2-15Ball St. (221.1)MACA0-023%-7.9
2-18Sam Houston St. (285.4)SlndA0-052%0.6
2-22Central Michigan (271.3)MACH0-065%4.1
2-25Western Michigan (181.2)MACH0-051%0.3
2-29Northern Illinois (337.4)MACA0-079%8.7
3-3Eastern Michigan (254.0)MACH0-073%6.6