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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:189
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:311


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA78-100W100%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA69-62L0%0.0
11-25San Jose St. (301.0)MWCN89-74W100%0.0
11-27Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCN74-82W100%0.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN78-70L0%0.0
12-2Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (112.0)HorzA69-71W100%0.0
12-9Detroit (204.0)HorzA75-72L0%0.0
12-12Oakland (116.0)HorzH64-76L0%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH102-68W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH95-62W100%0.0
12-30Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH90-73W100%0.0
1-6Ball St. (179.0)MACA87-69L0%0.0
1-9Miami OH (195.0)MACA76-84W100%0.0
1-12Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH66-71L0%0.0
1-15Akron (34.0)MACH78-64W100%0.0
1-19Bowling Green (200.0)MACA74-81W100%0.0
1-22Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA58-49L0%0.0
1-26Ohio (81.0)MACH79-81L0%0.0
1-30Buffalo (90.0)MACH68-73L0%0.0
2-2Western Michigan (202.0)MACH89-62W100%0.0
2-6Kent St. (124.0)MACA67-82W100%0.0
2-9Buffalo (90.0)MACA69-71W100%0.0
2-13Miami OH (195.0)MACH93-48W100%0.0
2-16Central Michigan (156.0)MACA77-69L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA91-85L0%0.0
2-23Ball St. (179.0)MACH77-67W100%0.0
2-27Central Michigan (156.0)MACH74-76L0%0.0
3-1Western Michigan (202.0)MACA70-64L0%0.0
3-4Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH75-79L0%0.0
3-7Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA69-60L0%0.0