Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Toledo   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:324.5
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:160
Current Record:3-28
Expected Record:3-28
Current Conf Record:1-16
Expected Conf Record:1-16
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-6
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:137


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
3-289.68%324.5100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Illinois (170.5)OVCH62-72L0%0.0
11-18Cincinnati (61.9)BEA68-92L0%0.0
11-20Michigan St. (29.5)B10A62-75L0%0.0
11-27Cornell (47.6)IvyN60-78L0%0.0
11-28Drexel (147.2)CAAA59-69L0%0.0
11-29Vermont (123.5)AEN49-82L0%0.0
12-5MD Baltimore County (333.0)AEH76-67W100%0.0
12-8Wright St. (80.6)HorzH56-66L0%0.0
12-10IUPU Fort Wayne (225.3)SumH73-72W100%0.0
12-12Valparaiso (185.4)HorzA49-81L0%0.0
12-19Indiana St. (87.5)MVCH54-55L0%0.0
12-29Illinois Chicago (291.0)HorzA52-66L0%0.0
1-4Alabama (100.5)SECH50-67L0%0.0
1-9Central Michigan (195.1)MACH48-59L0%0.0
1-13Eastern Michigan (201.8)MACA59-74L0%0.0
1-17Ball St. (218.5)MACA43-71L0%0.0
1-20Northern Illinois (262.5)MACH54-58L0%0.0
1-23Western Michigan (149.7)MACA41-73L0%0.0
1-26Kent St. (46.7)MACH49-69L0%0.0
1-30Akron (84.2)MACA45-59L0%0.0
2-1Bowling Green (188.3)MACA47-58L0%0.0
2-4Ohio (99.9)MACH58-65L0%0.0
2-6Buffalo (108.3)MACH59-65L0%0.0
2-10Miami OH (145.1)MACA47-55L0%0.0
2-14Central Michigan (195.1)MACA46-63L0%0.0
2-17Eastern Michigan (201.8)MACH42-58L0%0.0
2-20Cleveland St. (166.0)HorzA63-87L0%0.0
2-24Western Michigan (149.7)MACH41-61L0%0.0
2-27Ball St. (218.5)MACH45-42W100%0.0
3-4Northern Illinois (262.5)MACA58-60L0%0.0
3-7Buffalo (108.3)MACA54-72L0%0.0