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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:46.5
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:66
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-717.80.52%
22-822.14.26%
21-928.915.63%
20-1039.628.42%
19-1151.829.00%
18-1262.616.17%
17-1373.95.33%
16-1486.30.66%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Nicholls St. (323.6)SlndH109-62W100%0.0
11-17Jacksonville (243.7)ASunH98-79W100%0.0
11-20Hofstra (74.7)CAAN77-82L0%0.0
11-21DePaul (166.6)BEN67-83W100%0.0
11-23Ohio (98.1)MACN90-81W100%0.0
12-2Iowa (7.5)B10A78-75L0%0.0
12-6VCU (37.6)A10N76-71W100%0.0
12-13Southeastern Louisiana (336.7)SlndH75-58W100%0.0
12-16Mississippi St. (162.8)SECH90-66W100%0.0
12-19Florida Atlantic (279.8)CUSAN64-59W100%0.0
12-21Charleston Southern (275.4)BSthH75-64W100%0.0
12-29Florida (24.3)SECA71-73W100%0.0
1-2Clemson (109.8)ACCA84-75L0%0.0
1-4North Carolina (11.3)ACCH90-106L0%0.0
1-9Miami FL (11.4)ACCA72-59L0%0.0
1-13North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCA78-85W100%0.0
1-17Virginia (5.9)ACCH69-62W100%0.0
1-20Louisville (18.3)ACCA84-65L0%0.0
1-23Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCH72-74L0%0.0
1-26Boston College (233.1)ACCA62-72W100%0.0
1-30Clemson (109.8)ACCH76-65W100%0.0
2-1North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCH77-73W100%0.0
2-6Wake Forest (127.3)ACCA71-91W100%0.0
2-11Syracuse (53.3)ACCA0-039%-3.1
2-14Miami FL (11.4)ACCH0-042%-2.2
2-17Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCH0-069%5.3
2-20Virginia Tech (131.8)ACCA0-061%2.9
2-25Duke (18.0)ACCA0-018%-9.8
2-27Notre Dame (34.1)ACCH0-056%1.5
3-5Syracuse (53.3)ACCH0-063%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.2726.0569.9064.2710.467.44
Miami FLACC2.633.9181.8277.411.682.14
SyracuseACC0.373.8566.6763.460.121.04
North Carolina St.ACC4.583.8554.5552.480.420.19
ClemsonACC4.633.8559.0958.900.840.69
Georgia TechACC0.422.3352.1752.180.020.10
Boston CollegeACC2.452.3030.4327.63-0.96-1.03
Notre DameACC0.462.3070.8368.600.190.85
VirginiaACC2.502.3086.9681.181.851.43
DukeACC0.502.2975.0071.480.250.99
North CarolinaACC2.542.2982.6177.671.661.27
Virginia TechACC0.462.2752.0049.170.02-0.04
Wake ForestACC2.542.2745.4541.86-0.23-0.37
PittsburghACC2.542.2671.4366.481.090.75
LouisvilleACC2.592.2478.2675.271.461.13
FloridaSEC2.321.7869.5768.530.910.66
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.171.7515.0025.77-1.52-0.85
Mississippi St.SEC2.271.7545.4545.29-0.21-0.16
Nicholls St.Slnd2.171.7219.0521.90-1.35-0.97
VCUA102.171.7277.2776.431.190.91
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.221.7023.8128.19-1.16-0.74
HofstraCAA2.221.7063.6462.940.610.44
IowaB102.171.6981.8279.881.381.01
JacksonvilleASun2.221.6952.3851.740.110.06
Charleston SouthernBSth2.171.6725.0027.62-1.09-0.75
DePaulBE2.171.6734.7835.19-0.66-0.49
OhioMAC2.171.6766.6763.620.720.45
NortheasternCAA0.230.2045.8346.64-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.230.1986.3679.110.170.11
ArkansasSEC0.240.1750.0053.100.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.1759.0953.250.030.01
Michigan St.B100.280.1680.0081.600.170.10
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1678.2677.860.080.09
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1659.0955.300.020.02
LSUSEC0.230.1665.2260.260.070.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1425.0030.01-0.08-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.1427.2731.05-0.11-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.180.1471.4369.830.080.06
ElonCAA0.090.1452.1750.420.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.140.1471.4368.940.060.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1434.7840.91-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.1479.1774.040.030.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1445.4554.14-0.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.1456.0052.830.010.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1475.0072.610.070.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1245.4547.57-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1225.0026.86-0.07-0.06
LibertyBSth0.150.1234.7836.50-0.05-0.03
High PointBSth0.140.1255.0057.460.010.02
WinthropBSth0.190.1265.0063.410.060.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1247.6252.05-0.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.140.1222.7323.24-0.08-0.06
North FloridaASun0.140.1265.2267.130.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1117.6529.05-0.07-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.050.1127.7834.43-0.02-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1117.6526.57-0.07-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.1163.6460.920.030.02
UTSACUSA0.140.1113.6413.63-0.10-0.08
NebraskaB100.150.1154.1751.880.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.1156.5256.990.010.02
La SalleA100.140.1120.0020.46-0.09-0.07
PurdueB100.190.1180.0077.930.110.06
ButlerBE0.140.1169.5767.150.050.04
RutgersB100.190.1121.7420.37-0.10-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.140.1150.0048.130.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.1187.5086.910.070.08
Penn St.B100.140.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.1142.1140.21-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.1160.0057.940.030.02
George WashingtonA100.140.1178.2674.410.080.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1156.5259.860.010.02
MichiganB100.140.1169.5766.220.050.04
MississippiSEC0.140.1162.5058.930.030.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1164.0062.060.040.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1125.0023.40-0.00-0.06
WoffordSC0.140.1143.4846.22-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.140.1134.7830.33-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.140.1154.5554.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.1160.8755.830.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0960.0060.080.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.0925.0029.30-0.05-0.04
AkronMAC0.100.0982.6181.140.070.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0921.7423.40-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0931.8232.69-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.0926.0929.17-0.07-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0935.0034.80-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.0952.9452.080.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.150.0965.2260.590.050.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0934.7833.09-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0950.0051.300.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.140.0820.0019.68-0.08-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0824.0025.67-0.05-0.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0821.7423.34-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0830.0029.27-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0871.4369.410.040.03
UABCUSA0.050.0882.6179.370.030.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0862.5056.050.020.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0826.0927.79-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0825.0033.22-0.07-0.03
XavierBE0.140.0887.5081.810.100.05
DuquesneA100.100.0860.8756.430.020.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0840.9139.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0875.0070.990.050.03
UMKCWAC0.140.0828.5732.73-0.06-0.03
UtahP120.050.0869.5767.500.020.03
BucknellPat0.140.0854.5558.160.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0833.3333.68-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0836.3639.78-0.01-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0833.3332.36-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.090.050.05
ColgatePat0.000.0843.4844.80-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0882.6178.910.060.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0836.3633.54-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0628.5729.65-0.02-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0665.2266.200.030.02
NJITASun0.050.0654.1755.280.000.01
StetsonASun0.100.0623.8127.67-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.100.0650.0046.540.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0673.9176.720.050.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0625.0025.08-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.420.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.33-0.02-0.03
NavyPat0.090.0662.5062.370.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0660.8757.190.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.6418.15-0.07-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.790.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.200.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.490.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.210.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0633.3333.04-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0660.0057.610.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0645.0049.25-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0676.1972.280.050.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.770.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.420.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.920.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0652.3854.080.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.0661.9065.300.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0681.8282.630.030.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0672.0071.540.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.0043.44-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.790.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0664.0064.140.010.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.24-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.090.030.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.21-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.13-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.740.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0660.0055.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.700.020.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0673.9169.970.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.46-0.03-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0539.1335.43-0.01-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0586.9682.300.030.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9170.050.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.4551.34-0.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0587.5083.700.070.04
UCLAP120.090.0556.5253.270.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0534.7835.65-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0554.1751.690.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0573.9172.480.000.02
FordhamA100.090.0555.0052.190.010.00
IUPUISum0.090.0540.0039.81-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0540.9143.71-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0529.1733.12-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0533.3334.22-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0537.5043.38-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.010.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.550.020.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.19-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.580.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.760.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.820.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.730.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.05-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.110.020.01
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.110.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.34-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.040.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.470.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.910.040.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.90-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.830.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.03-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.21-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0343.4842.66-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0359.0959.630.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0380.0081.160.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.980.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0049.460.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.180.010.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.16-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0330.4332.36-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0328.5733.36-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0026.39-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.55-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.140.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0340.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0315.0018.09-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0354.5556.020.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0325.0026.75-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.300.010.00
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.990.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.020.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.170.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.860.000.00
VMISC0.000.0315.0016.72-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0373.6874.680.000.01