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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:82.0
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1382.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH109-62W100%0.0
11-17Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH98-79W100%0.0
11-20Hofstra (54.0)CAAN77-82L0%0.0
11-21DePaul (198.0)BEN67-83W100%0.0
11-23Ohio (81.0)MACN90-81W100%0.0
12-2Iowa (28.0)B10A78-75L0%0.0
12-6VCU (37.0)A10N76-71W100%0.0
12-13Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH75-58W100%0.0
12-16Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH90-66W100%0.0
12-19Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAN64-59W100%0.0
12-21Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH75-64W100%0.0
12-29Florida (55.0)SECA71-73W100%0.0
1-2Clemson (131.0)ACCA84-75L0%0.0
1-4North Carolina (5.0)ACCH90-106L0%0.0
1-9Miami FL (9.0)ACCA72-59L0%0.0
1-13North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA78-85W100%0.0
1-17Virginia (3.0)ACCH69-62W100%0.0
1-20Louisville (17.0)ACCA84-65L0%0.0
1-23Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH72-74L0%0.0
1-26Boston College (250.0)ACCA62-72W100%0.0
1-30Clemson (131.0)ACCH76-65W100%0.0
2-1North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH77-73W100%0.0
2-6Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA71-91W100%0.0
2-11Syracuse (72.0)ACCA85-72L0%0.0
2-14Miami FL (9.0)ACCH65-67L0%0.0
2-17Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH80-86L0%0.0
2-20Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA83-73L0%0.0
2-25Duke (20.0)ACCA80-65L0%0.0
2-27Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH77-56W100%0.0
3-5Syracuse (72.0)ACCH78-73W100%0.0
3-8Boston College (250.0)ACCN88-66W100%0.0
3-9Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCN96-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.0826.0858.4558.454.414.41
Miami FLACC3.783.7876.6776.672.012.01
Virginia TechACC3.733.7354.8454.840.360.36
Boston CollegeACC3.713.7123.3323.33-1.98-1.98
North Carolina St.ACC3.683.6851.6151.610.120.12
SyracuseACC3.683.6860.0060.000.740.74
ClemsonACC3.683.6855.1755.170.380.38
VirginiaACC2.292.2981.2581.251.431.43
Georgia TechACC2.272.2756.2556.250.280.28
North CarolinaACC2.272.2781.8281.821.441.44
Notre DameACC2.242.2467.7467.740.800.80
DukeACC2.242.2468.7568.750.840.84
PittsburghACC2.242.2463.3363.330.600.60
Wake ForestACC2.212.2136.6736.67-0.59-0.59
LouisvilleACC2.122.1273.3373.330.990.99
FloridaSEC1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Nicholls St.Slnd1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
VCUA101.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
HofstraCAA1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
IowaB101.591.5966.6766.670.530.53
JacksonvilleASun1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Charleston SouthernBSth1.561.5623.0823.08-0.84-0.84
DePaulBE1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
OhioMAC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
ArkansasSEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Michigan St.B100.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
IndianaB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
ElonCAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
DavidsonA100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1020.8320.83-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
CornellIvy0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01