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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:54.0
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1154.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14George Washington (195.0)A10H87-67W100%0.0
11-17Fordham (290.0)A10N43-67W100%0.0
11-19Colorado St. (234.0)MWCN90-73W100%0.0
11-22Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH98-79W100%0.0
11-24The Citadel (281.0)SCH113-78W100%0.0
11-28Rutgers (203.0)B10A73-78W100%0.0
12-4Florida (46.0)SECA66-83W100%0.0
12-6Loyola MD (322.0)PatH96-71W100%0.0
12-10Tulane (175.0)AmerN72-53W100%0.0
12-16Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12N70-71L0%0.0
12-18Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthH69-58W100%0.0
12-21Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAH98-45W100%0.0
12-30Duke (7.0)ACCA100-93L0%0.0
1-3North Carolina (4.0)ACCH81-80W100%0.0
1-7Miami FL (28.0)ACCA80-74L0%0.0
1-10Louisville (38.0)ACCH69-73L0%0.0
1-13Syracuse (45.0)ACCH101-90W100%0.0
1-15Boston College (96.0)ACCA81-75L0%0.0
1-20Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA82-91W100%0.0
1-24Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH88-77W100%0.0
1-27Miami FL (28.0)ACCH103-94W100%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA76-72L0%0.0
2-3Louisville (38.0)ACCA76-80W100%0.0
2-7Virginia (1.0)ACCH55-59L0%0.0
2-10Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA84-69L0%0.0
2-14Clemson (11.0)ACCH81-79W100%0.0
2-18Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH88-75W100%0.0
2-25North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA92-72L0%0.0
2-28Clemson (11.0)ACCA76-63L0%0.0
3-3Boston College (96.0)ACCH85-76W100%0.0
3-7Louisville (38.0)ACCN74-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.0826.0864.5764.577.607.60
LouisvilleACC5.345.3460.0060.001.071.07
Boston CollegeACC3.853.8556.2556.250.480.48
ClemsonACC3.823.8273.3373.331.781.78
Miami FLACC3.793.7972.4172.411.701.70
VirginiaACC2.352.3593.7593.752.062.06
North CarolinaACC2.342.3473.5373.531.101.10
Virginia TechACC2.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
PittsburghACC2.282.2825.8125.81-1.10-1.10
North Carolina St.ACC2.262.2664.5264.520.660.66
Notre DameACC2.252.2556.2556.250.280.28
SyracuseACC2.232.2362.5062.500.560.56
DukeACC2.232.2378.1278.121.261.26
Georgia TechACC2.232.2341.9441.94-0.36-0.36
Wake ForestACC2.182.1833.3333.33-0.73-0.73
George WashingtonA101.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
FordhamA101.711.7130.0030.00-0.68-0.68
TulaneAmer1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
FloridaSEC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Colorado St.MWC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
RutgersB101.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Charleston SouthernBSth1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Oklahoma St.B121.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
The CitadelSC1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
Kennesaw St.ASun1.611.6129.6329.63-0.66-0.66
Loyola MDPat1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
DavidsonA100.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
La SalleA100.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
TempleAmer0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
MemphisAmer0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
Ohio St.B100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
RichmondA100.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.150.1582.3582.350.090.09
VMISC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
NavyPat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
West VirginiaB120.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
BryantNEC0.120.129.689.68-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B100.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
BucknellPat0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01