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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:165.8
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:77
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1167.00.01%
19-1277.00.03%
18-1393.50.38%
17-14109.82.05%
16-15125.67.65%
15-16143.018.17%
14-17160.826.76%
13-18178.725.51%
12-19195.514.06%
11-20211.44.70%
10-21226.00.67%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Manhattan (246.1)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
11-18Northeastern (100.9)CAAH73-76L0%0.0
11-22Providence (31.0)BEN80-54L0%0.0
11-23Massachusetts (92.3)A10N75-69L0%0.0
11-25The Citadel (320.5)SCH66-55W100%0.0
11-28Charleston Southern (176.8)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
12-1Nebraska (97.3)B10H65-70L0%0.0
12-6UCF (221.9)AmerH96-73W100%0.0
12-13Notre Dame (31.5)ACCA83-63L0%0.0
12-17North Florida (163.3)ASunH93-77W100%0.0
12-20South Florida (225.9)AmerN62-75W100%0.0
12-22Stetson (339.4)ASunH63-59W100%0.0
12-30Florida (60.7)SECH65-63W100%0.0
1-2Mississippi St. (230.6)SECA62-55L0%0.0
1-6Virginia Tech (221.2)ACCH86-75W100%0.0
1-11Syracuse (71.7)ACCA70-57L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (95.8)ACCA73-64L0%0.0
1-17North Carolina St. (43.6)ACCH63-72L0%0.0
1-19Clemson (127.3)ACCA55-59W100%0.0
1-24North Carolina (9.5)ACCA78-74L0%0.0
1-28Wake Forest (136.7)ACCH0-055%1.4
2-1Miami FL (41.9)ACCH0-030%-5.9
2-4Clemson (127.3)ACCH0-058%2.3
2-7Virginia Tech (221.2)ACCA0-050%0.1
2-9Duke (7.4)ACCH0-010%-14.2
2-14Georgia Tech (113.1)ACCA0-031%-5.6
2-18Boston College (163.6)ACCH0-059%2.6
2-22Virginia (2.3)ACCA0-01%-25.6
2-25Miami FL (41.9)ACCA0-013%-12.7
2-28Louisville (16.3)ACCH0-015%-11.7
3-7Pittsburgh (95.8)ACCH0-050%-0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.3526.0443.9037.51-3.21-6.50
Miami FLACC0.323.8073.6870.040.151.52
Virginia TechACC2.763.7847.0635.28-0.16-1.11
PittsburghACC2.703.7564.7153.780.790.28
ClemsonACC2.693.7261.1150.810.600.06
Boston CollegeACC0.262.2747.0640.33-0.02-0.44
North Carolina St.ACC2.782.2563.1660.410.730.47
Notre DameACC2.762.2589.4782.112.181.44
LouisvilleACC0.202.2283.3376.380.131.17
SyracuseACC2.642.2268.4257.460.970.33
Wake ForestACC0.322.1945.0040.27-0.03-0.43
Georgia TechACC0.262.1950.0044.730.00-0.23
North CarolinaACC2.832.1978.9575.061.641.10
VirginiaACC0.192.19100.0094.310.191.94
DukeACC0.132.1688.8982.350.101.40
MassachusettsA102.751.7550.0051.460.000.05
FloridaSEC2.631.7455.5655.570.290.19
ProvidenceBE2.631.7473.6864.621.240.51
ManhattanMAAC2.691.7247.0646.59-0.16-0.12
StetsonASun2.641.7012.5020.10-1.98-1.02
UCFAmer2.571.7050.0043.250.00-0.23
South FloridaAmer2.561.7035.2933.62-0.75-0.56
North FloridaASun2.571.6755.5662.540.290.42
NortheasternCAA2.641.6765.0065.940.790.53
The CitadelSC2.571.6631.2532.86-0.96-0.57
Charleston SouthernBSth2.561.6460.0057.640.510.25
Mississippi St.SEC2.571.6441.1832.65-0.45-0.57
NebraskaB102.501.6161.1149.770.56-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.410.2221.0521.36-0.24-0.13
USC UpstateASun0.220.2061.1162.930.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.2061.1166.550.060.06
TulaneAmer0.210.1663.1653.870.060.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.1678.9572.060.040.07
LSUSEC0.200.1678.9569.100.110.06
KentuckySEC0.130.16100.0098.440.130.15
VMISC0.220.1531.5837.61-0.08-0.04
WoffordSC0.210.1573.6873.960.100.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1438.8943.45-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1425.0025.62-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.210.1411.7617.50-0.16-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.140.004.40-0.28-0.13
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1417.6518.13-0.10-0.09
SamfordSC0.140.1436.3636.13-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.280.1476.4776.560.150.07
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1472.2272.450.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1435.2931.61-0.04-0.05
TempleAmer0.140.1465.0062.140.040.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1463.1663.590.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.200.1452.9453.130.010.01
RutgersB100.200.1447.6237.42-0.01-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1428.5733.14-0.06-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.210.1358.8260.180.040.03
IowaB100.260.1365.0063.320.080.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.1355.5654.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.190.1368.7568.430.070.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1342.1151.52-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.220.1236.8441.44-0.06-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1222.2232.03-0.12-0.04
LipscombASun0.070.1241.1842.85-0.01-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1252.9455.350.010.01
High PointBSth0.140.1270.5968.470.060.04
RadfordBSth0.070.1161.1161.370.020.03
HoustonAmer0.070.1136.8435.27-0.02-0.03
SMUAmer0.140.1178.9577.540.080.06
Michigan St.B100.200.1165.0063.990.060.03
NavyPat0.260.1131.5832.84-0.10-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.140.1166.6760.550.050.02
PurdueB100.190.1160.0056.940.040.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1131.5831.66-0.05-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.1170.0074.650.030.05
NiagaraMAAC0.210.1116.6723.70-0.14-0.06
ElonCAA0.070.1147.3744.07-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.190.115.2612.12-0.17-0.08
AuburnSEC0.200.1150.0040.150.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.130.1164.2965.330.040.03
IllinoisB100.070.1161.9060.570.020.02
OaklandHorz0.140.1133.3340.27-0.05-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.1160.0056.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.130.1166.6754.630.040.01
HofstraCAA0.190.1066.6770.410.060.04
West VirginiaB120.130.1084.2174.830.090.05
IndianaB100.140.1078.9568.920.080.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1027.7829.52-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.120.1052.6355.870.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.140.1064.7156.740.040.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1070.5961.580.050.02
William & MaryCAA0.190.1058.8262.380.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0923.5328.67-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.0916.6722.12-0.09-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.220.0971.4369.400.090.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0843.7548.25-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0863.1661.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.140.0877.7872.280.080.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0852.6343.260.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.085.2611.93-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.070.0861.9062.350.020.02
DetroitHorz0.200.0842.1145.89-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0857.8962.550.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0844.4440.56-0.01-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0889.4782.920.110.05
MarylandB100.000.0885.0077.540.000.04
FordhamA100.070.0825.0024.65-0.03-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0820.0027.15-0.08-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0884.2179.070.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0872.2265.330.060.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0833.3330.04-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0850.0054.950.000.01
WisconsinB100.070.0890.0087.110.050.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0820.0029.52-0.04-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0844.4441.09-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.190.0845.0039.23-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.140.0863.1657.340.040.01
James MadisonCAA0.120.0857.1458.270.020.01
La SalleA100.070.0852.6352.930.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0852.6346.670.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0875.0076.160.030.04
Penn St.B100.070.0865.0051.740.020.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0872.2262.360.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0872.2263.510.030.02
UABCUSA0.200.0847.3749.76-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.130.0870.0069.080.050.03
DuquesneA100.070.0829.4127.40-0.03-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.0873.6867.990.060.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.0841.1842.95-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0817.6526.23-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.060.0889.4783.810.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0855.5654.920.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0622.2229.76-0.04-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0663.1662.110.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0668.7569.140.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0658.8258.890.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0621.0526.14-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0647.3751.60-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.0642.8642.63-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.060.003.89-0.14-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.0642.1145.74-0.02-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0637.5045.85-0.02-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0635.2937.84-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0643.7540.74-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.0623.5344.31-0.08-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0655.0055.870.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0657.8956.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.0645.0048.04-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.140.0529.4131.61-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0525.0026.14-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0552.6355.510.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0580.0071.470.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0525.0038.14-0.07-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0557.8950.370.010.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0544.4437.39-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.000.0584.2180.710.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0566.6762.710.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0550.0049.170.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0521.0522.35-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0552.3843.130.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0552.9458.930.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0578.9577.960.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0537.5042.74-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0560.0047.800.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0542.1151.89-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.0573.6872.630.060.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0552.3857.180.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0533.3329.95-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0547.3749.78-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0544.4439.74-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0573.6875.840.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0523.5329.50-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0540.0037.69-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0565.0063.100.020.01
YaleIvy0.130.0564.7164.100.040.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0335.2936.78-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0389.4783.130.060.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0344.4444.57-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0350.0062.000.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0343.7552.34-0.010.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0383.3376.420.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0327.7828.23-0.03-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0315.7918.63-0.05-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0344.4443.20-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0375.0071.030.030.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0354.5565.340.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0325.0025.40-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.000.035.268.87-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0323.0839.11-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0310.5315.25-0.05-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0338.8940.90-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0053.010.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0365.0062.970.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0355.0061.960.000.01
OhioMAC0.070.0341.1838.69-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0372.2262.220.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0325.0030.05-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6861.590.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0358.8257.870.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.035.5610.98-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0342.1142.82-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0347.3739.90-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0355.5653.210.010.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0361.1165.030.010.01
ArmyPat0.000.0364.7159.760.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0366.6767.930.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0338.8942.70-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0341.1838.09-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0350.0051.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0365.0067.580.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0350.0050.390.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0028.11-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0355.0045.750.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.035.5611.58-0.06-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0340.0046.22-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.035.5616.72-0.06-0.02
CornellIvy0.060.0347.0648.21-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0347.0649.65-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0333.3334.31-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.030.007.13-0.06-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0342.1141.54-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0355.5655.370.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0335.0031.73-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2175.960.050.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0350.0051.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0336.8433.32-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0316.6723.15-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0315.3818.25-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0370.5977.580.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0343.7538.83-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0343.7542.97-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0378.9574.010.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0347.3741.09-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0373.6869.340.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0357.8965.450.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0342.1156.86-0.010.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0357.8959.450.000.00
UCLAP120.060.0355.0052.130.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0370.5967.460.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0364.7156.920.020.00