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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:54.0
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1354.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH91-67W100%0.0
11-13UCF (220.0)AmerA68-80W100%0.0
11-17Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH89-61W100%0.0
11-21VCU (13.0)A10N67-85W100%0.0
11-22Michigan (11.0)B10N80-82L0%0.0
11-24Northeastern (222.0)CAAN62-60W100%0.0
11-29Florida (1.0)SECA67-66L0%0.0
12-3Minnesota (50.0)B10A71-61L0%0.0
12-8Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH77-53W100%0.0
12-17Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH106-62W100%0.0
12-21Massachusetts (23.0)A10N60-55W100%0.0
12-30Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH67-59W100%0.0
1-4Virginia (8.0)ACCH50-62L0%0.0
1-9Clemson (79.0)ACCA41-56W100%0.0
1-12Maryland (78.0)ACCH85-61W100%0.0
1-15Miami FL (110.0)ACCA53-63W100%0.0
1-18Virginia (8.0)ACCA78-66L0%0.0
1-21Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH76-74W100%0.0
1-25Duke (9.0)ACCA78-56L0%0.0
1-29North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA74-70L0%0.0
2-1Clemson (79.0)ACCH49-53L0%0.0
2-5Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH70-50W100%0.0
2-8Maryland (78.0)ACCA83-71L0%0.0
2-10Miami FL (110.0)ACCH73-77L0%0.0
2-15Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA60-67W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina (25.0)ACCH75-81L0%0.0
2-23Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA66-71W100%0.0
3-2Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH81-71W100%0.0
3-4Boston College (207.0)ACCA70-74W100%0.0
3-9Syracuse (16.0)ACCH58-74L0%0.0
3-13Maryland (78.0)ACCN65-67W100%0.0
3-14Virginia (8.0)ACCN64-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.1726.1758.5558.554.484.48
VirginiaACC5.295.2980.6580.653.243.24
MarylandACC5.215.2153.5753.570.370.37
Miami FLACC3.713.7151.6151.610.120.12
ClemsonACC3.703.7063.3363.330.990.99
PittsburghACC2.312.3175.7675.761.191.19
Virginia TechACC2.312.3130.0030.00-0.92-0.92
DukeACC2.282.2875.7675.761.171.17
Georgia TechACC2.242.2450.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC2.232.2360.6160.610.470.47
Wake ForestACC2.212.2153.1253.120.140.14
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1923.3323.33-1.17-1.17
Notre DameACC2.182.1848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC2.182.1883.8783.871.481.48
North CarolinaACC2.142.1470.9770.970.900.90
VCUA101.731.7378.7978.791.001.00
MassachusettsA101.661.6677.4277.420.910.91
MichiganB101.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
UCFAmer1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
JacksonvilleASun1.641.6437.0437.04-0.42-0.42
CharlotteCUSA1.631.6356.6756.670.220.22
MinnesotaB101.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
NortheasternCAA1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
FloridaSEC1.591.5993.9493.941.401.40
Jacksonville St.OVC1.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
Tennessee MartinOVC1.591.5921.4321.43-0.91-0.91
Charleston SouthernBSth1.561.5634.6234.62-0.48-0.48
George WashingtonA100.240.2475.0075.000.120.12
RichmondA100.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
WisconsinB100.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.2026.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Ohio St.B100.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
DavidsonSC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
StetsonASun0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
DelawareCAA0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
VMIBSth0.130.1355.5655.560.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
SMUAmer0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Penn St.B100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
FordhamA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
NavyPat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01