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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:21.9
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:10
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:16.72%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-69.33.68%
23-712.717.15%
22-817.830.94%
21-924.328.16%
20-1032.314.72%
19-1142.04.58%
18-1253.40.72%
17-1368.50.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH79-67W100%0.0
11-14Central Florida (72.7)CUSAH73-50W100%0.0
11-16Stetson (255.4)ASunH79-66W100%0.0
11-20South Alabama (196.0)SBH80-39W100%0.0
11-24Massachusetts (76.4)A10N53-73W100%0.0
11-25Harvard (36.7)IvyN41-46L0%0.0
11-26Connecticut (27.1)BEN78-76L0%0.0
11-30Michigan St. (8.2)B10A65-49L0%0.0
12-5Charleston Southern (151.0)BSthH76-51W100%0.0
12-11NC Greensboro (256.3)SCH75-60W100%0.0
12-18Loyola Marymount (107.0)WCCH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Florida (14.9)SECA82-64L0%0.0
12-30Princeton (117.6)IvyH73-75L0%0.0
1-4Auburn (147.6)SECH85-56W100%0.0
1-7Clemson (148.3)ACCA79-59L0%0.0
1-10Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA59-63W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina (4.6)ACCH90-57W100%0.0
1-17Maryland (112.8)ACCH84-70W100%0.0
1-21Duke (4.2)ACCA73-76W100%0.0
1-25Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA52-75W100%0.0
2-1Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH68-54W100%0.0
2-4Virginia (39.5)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
2-8Boston College (248.2)ACCA0-094%16.8
2-11Miami FL (64.4)ACCH0-081%9.4
2-16Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCH0-079%8.8
2-18North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA0-058%2.1
2-23Duke (4.2)ACCH0-053%0.8
2-26Miami FL (64.4)ACCA0-060%2.7
3-1Virginia (39.5)ACCA0-042%-2.3
3-4Clemson (148.3)ACCH0-086%11.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.1426.1270.4570.2610.6910.59
DukeACC2.683.9190.4887.202.172.91
Virginia TechACC2.583.9159.0958.280.470.65
ClemsonACC2.523.8847.6247.75-0.12-0.18
VirginiaACC2.473.8885.7180.211.772.35
Miami FLACC0.353.8865.0062.250.110.95
Boston CollegeACC0.402.3330.4327.13-0.16-1.07
North CarolinaACC2.532.3390.9185.932.071.67
MarylandACC2.522.3061.9052.570.600.12
North Carolina St.ACC0.362.2870.8365.160.150.69
Wake ForestACC2.532.2750.0045.160.00-0.22
Georgia TechACC2.532.2540.9143.57-0.46-0.29
StetsonASun2.541.8433.3332.47-0.85-0.65
HarvardIvy2.431.8490.0087.471.941.38
NC GreensboroSC2.321.7836.3634.66-0.63-0.55
JacksonvilleASun2.371.7518.1822.78-1.51-0.95
Central FloridaCUSA2.431.7575.0069.071.220.67
FloridaSEC2.371.7581.8276.891.510.94
MassachusettsA102.271.7577.2770.951.240.73
PrincetonIvy2.271.7544.4451.12-0.250.04
Michigan St.B102.371.7575.0071.981.190.77
Charleston SouthernBSth2.381.7357.8962.740.380.44
ConnecticutBE2.381.7366.6762.750.790.44
Loyola MarymountWCC2.331.7061.9059.900.550.34
AuburnSEC2.271.6959.0950.490.410.02
South AlabamaSB2.271.6755.0054.990.230.17
North FloridaASun0.300.2845.8346.68-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.200.2352.3852.860.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.260.2058.3359.980.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2050.0048.900.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.250.2059.0957.280.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.250.1945.4544.66-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.220.1755.0054.800.020.02
WinthropBSth0.210.1734.7834.61-0.06-0.05
YaleIvy0.210.1772.2263.190.090.05
BelmontASun0.200.1769.5773.280.080.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.1754.5556.840.010.02
ElonSC0.210.1750.0047.590.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.150.1720.8320.60-0.09-0.10
AlabamaSEC0.150.1768.1869.100.050.06
MichiganB100.160.1672.7366.810.070.06
South CarolinaSEC0.250.1640.9139.56-0.05-0.03
SyracuseBE0.100.1695.8392.010.090.14
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1536.3639.72-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1534.7838.77-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.210.1540.9139.82-0.04-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.160.1533.3337.16-0.05-0.04
The CitadelSC0.210.159.5211.44-0.17-0.11
CornellIvy0.170.1436.8441.45-0.04-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.148.7011.67-0.17-0.11
MercerASun0.200.1470.8371.640.080.06
CampbellBSth0.160.1456.0055.650.020.02
RutgersBE0.160.1450.0046.810.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.150.1435.0039.29-0.04-0.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1463.6456.710.030.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1486.9685.460.070.10
Middle TennesseeSB0.210.1283.3384.760.140.09
High PointBSth0.160.1231.8232.75-0.06-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.170.1272.2271.970.070.05
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1240.9143.66-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.100.1259.0957.930.020.02
BrownIvy0.110.1227.2723.80-0.05-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.110.1214.2917.17-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.150.1243.4843.82-0.02-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.1269.5771.510.020.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1254.5556.090.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.150.1240.0041.30-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1238.1042.78-0.05-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1244.4441.71-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1219.0522.37-0.13-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1178.2672.340.090.05
SamfordSC0.150.1133.3335.26-0.05-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.160.1168.1867.640.060.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.150.1175.0076.000.080.06
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1143.4843.31-0.01-0.02
FurmanSC0.150.1147.6248.83-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.050.1165.2260.580.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1175.0075.780.050.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1162.5062.490.040.03
TowsonCAA0.150.114.005.26-0.14-0.10
Seton HallBE0.200.1165.2263.740.060.03
DavidsonSC0.150.1176.1976.760.080.06
ArkansasSEC0.100.1169.5765.150.040.03
MonmouthNEC0.150.1128.0028.91-0.07-0.05
TempleA100.100.1177.2775.060.060.05
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1145.4541.20-0.01-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1169.5761.310.040.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1195.8392.570.090.09
St. BonaventureA100.050.1160.0059.060.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1169.5765.870.040.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
RadfordBSth0.110.098.7013.10-0.09-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.110.0933.3333.82-0.04-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.0985.7182.180.080.06
GonzagaWCC0.110.0981.8281.490.070.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0952.3857.860.010.01
Kansas St.B120.110.0972.7368.280.050.03
DrexelCAA0.110.0979.1778.100.070.05
SienaMAAC0.160.0945.4545.55-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.100.0977.2777.670.060.05
CharlotteA100.050.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0965.2265.170.020.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.0847.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0834.7837.24-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.150.0840.9134.50-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.150.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.110.0840.9142.05-0.02-0.01
Seattleind0.110.0823.5333.28-0.06-0.03
HawaiiWAC0.100.0857.1453.120.010.01
IowaB100.110.0854.1749.440.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.0852.3846.680.00-0.01
Notre DameBE0.150.0865.2262.650.050.02
ArizonaP120.100.0866.6768.550.030.03
WisconsinB100.100.0875.0073.970.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0840.9138.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.2727.21-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.110.0628.5730.17-0.05-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0634.7834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0654.1754.750.010.01
North TexasSB0.110.0650.0050.010.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0617.6527.10-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0633.3333.88-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0659.0959.720.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.0631.8233.83-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0621.7421.70-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0656.5253.770.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0633.3337.25-0.03-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.100.0661.9058.590.020.01
WagnerNEC0.110.0682.6184.570.070.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0627.2735.02-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0660.8759.760.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0645.4546.99-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.110.0637.5038.52-0.03-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0648.0051.88-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.100.0634.7832.08-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0680.9577.380.060.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0679.1775.980.030.03
UtahP120.100.0618.1815.01-0.07-0.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0680.0078.060.060.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0645.4545.70-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0660.8760.960.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0652.1750.090.000.00
George MasonCAA0.050.0676.0072.500.030.03
IllinoisB100.110.0672.7364.430.050.02
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0639.1336.10-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0661.9055.140.020.01
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.000.0641.6738.67-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0656.5250.270.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0610.0014.93-0.04-0.04
South FloridaBE0.100.0654.5548.600.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.38-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0535.2939.85-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0571.4373.350.040.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0525.0023.75-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0538.8943.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0566.6760.800.020.01
KansasB120.050.0578.2678.390.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0550.0058.160.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0568.1869.680.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.8761.370.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0569.5766.540.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0540.9142.96-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0316.6723.02-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.038.708.99-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0382.6180.420.040.02
BucknellPat0.060.0373.9175.000.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0368.4266.450.020.01
HartfordAE0.050.0317.3920.97-0.04-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0365.2263.610.000.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.038.3310.86-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.030.01
LouisvilleBE0.000.0378.2672.660.000.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
MaineAE0.050.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0335.0038.58-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0381.8281.030.000.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
PittsburghBE0.000.0360.8758.160.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.0045.89-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0366.6768.050.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8639.66-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
XavierA100.000.0365.2263.740.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0345.4544.02-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
StanfordP120.000.0369.5768.290.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
Texas A&MB120.050.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01