live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:85.0
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1585.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Alabama (154.0)SBH71-76L0%0.0
11-12Buffalo (215.0)MACH95-68W100%0.0
11-16Brigham Young (69.0)WCCN88-70W100%0.0
11-17Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10N66-73W100%0.0
11-21North Florida (230.0)ASunH75-67W100%0.0
11-27Minnesota (34.0)B10H68-77L0%0.0
12-2Mercer (137.0)ASunH56-61L0%0.0
12-5Florida (7.0)SECH47-72L0%0.0
12-9Maine (267.0)AEH91-59W100%0.0
12-17Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBH63-48W100%0.0
12-22Charlotte (68.0)A10A76-79W100%0.0
12-29Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH82-63W100%0.0
1-2Auburn (252.0)SECA78-72L0%0.0
1-5Clemson (185.0)ACCA66-71W100%0.0
1-9Maryland (73.0)ACCA62-65W100%0.0
1-12North Carolina (17.0)ACCH72-77L0%0.0
1-19Virginia (76.0)ACCA56-36L0%0.0
1-24Clemson (185.0)ACCH60-57W100%0.0
1-27Miami FL (4.0)ACCA71-47L0%0.0
1-30Maryland (73.0)ACCH73-71W100%0.0
2-2Duke (1.0)ACCH60-79L0%0.0
2-5Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA54-56W100%0.0
2-9Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA71-46L0%0.0
2-13Miami FL (4.0)ACCH68-74L0%0.0
2-16Boston College (113.0)ACCH69-66W100%0.0
2-19North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA84-66L0%0.0
2-24Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA80-70L0%0.0
2-26Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH76-62W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina (17.0)ACCA79-58L0%0.0
3-7Virginia (76.0)ACCH53-51W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH71-67W100%0.0
3-14Clemson (185.0)ACCN73-69W100%0.0
3-15North Carolina (17.0)ACCN83-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.3026.3050.3350.330.170.17
North CarolinaACC5.275.2766.6766.671.761.76
ClemsonACC5.155.1546.4346.43-0.37-0.37
Miami FLACC3.853.8580.6580.652.362.36
North Carolina St.ACC3.833.8371.8871.881.681.68
MarylandACC3.833.8368.7568.751.441.44
VirginiaACC3.753.7566.6766.671.251.25
Wake ForestACC3.703.7041.3841.38-0.64-0.64
Boston CollegeACC2.382.3850.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.342.3438.7138.71-0.53-0.53
Georgia TechACC2.332.3353.3353.330.160.16
DukeACC2.332.3383.8783.871.581.58
MercerASun1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
North FloridaASun1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
CharlotteA101.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
South AlabamaSB1.571.5755.5655.560.170.17
Louisiana MonroeSB1.571.5715.3815.38-1.09-1.09
MinnesotaB101.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
AuburnSEC1.561.5625.8125.81-0.76-0.76
BuffaloMAC1.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Brigham YoungWCC1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
FloridaSEC1.541.5478.1278.120.870.87
Saint Joseph'sA101.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
TulsaCUSA1.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
MaineAE1.521.5235.7135.71-0.43-0.43
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Florida AtlanticSB0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Western KentuckySB0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
North TexasSB0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
ArizonaP120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.140.1453.8553.850.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
GonzagaWCC0.120.1293.7593.750.110.11
Texas El PasoCUSA0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
LipscombASun0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
TempleA100.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
ButlerA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
George MasonCAA0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MemphisCUSA0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
St. Mary'sWCC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0413.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.047.147.14-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00