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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:50.8
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:44
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-47.00.01%
26-57.30.07%
25-611.40.42%
24-714.71.32%
23-819.73.94%
22-925.18.03%
21-1032.014.11%
20-1140.818.01%
19-1251.219.49%
18-1363.116.34%
17-1476.110.13%
16-1590.85.41%
15-16105.02.17%
14-17121.60.46%
13-18145.70.06%
12-19141.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthH88-67W100%0.0
11-15Iona (82.5)MAACH99-78W100%0.0
11-18Winthrop (119.7)BSthH100-86W100%0.0
11-20Detroit (301.2)HorzH100-71W100%0.0
11-24Temple (58.9)AmerN86-89L0%0.0
11-25Illinois (134.7)B10N61-72W100%0.0
11-28Minnesota (46.1)B10H75-67W100%0.0
12-4George Washington (176.1)A10N0-084%12.0
12-6Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAH0-099%28.1
12-8Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndH0-099%26.4
12-11Florida (9.6)SECH0-043%-2.0
12-17Manhattan (234.2)MAACN0-094%18.9
12-19Samford (178.5)SCH0-092%16.9
12-28Wake Forest (59.3)ACCH0-069%6.0
12-31Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-012%-14.2
1-7Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCH0-064%4.2
1-10Duke (8.6)ACCH0-030%-6.2
1-14North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-014%-13.2
1-18Notre Dame (26.0)ACCH0-044%-1.7
1-21Louisville (6.5)ACCH0-033%-5.2
1-25Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA0-070%6.2
1-28Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-027%-7.3
2-1Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-032%-5.7
2-5Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-067%5.4
2-8North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCH0-078%9.1
2-11Notre Dame (26.0)ACCA0-026%-7.9
2-18Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-049%-0.2
2-20Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-094%19.1
2-25Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-047%-0.8
2-28Duke (8.6)ACCA0-015%-12.4
3-4Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC29.4526.0580.0057.8717.674.10
Miami FLACC0.003.8071.4366.280.001.24
DukeACC0.003.7887.5078.780.002.18
ClemsonACC0.003.7366.6754.240.000.32
Notre DameACC0.003.73100.0075.700.001.92
Virginia TechACC0.002.2585.7163.840.000.62
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2250.0027.970.00-0.98
North Carolina St.ACC0.512.2271.4351.510.220.07
Georgia TechACC0.002.2266.6740.040.00-0.44
Wake ForestACC0.002.2271.4353.120.000.14
LouisvilleACC0.002.1985.7176.260.001.15
North CarolinaACC0.002.1985.7179.800.001.31
SyracuseACC0.002.1766.6770.060.000.87
PittsburghACC0.002.1785.7155.710.000.25
VirginiaACC0.002.17100.0082.350.001.40
ManhattanMAAC1.821.7533.3339.27-0.61-0.38
WinthropBSth7.651.7375.0073.213.830.80
IllinoisB108.451.7266.6744.132.82-0.20
FloridaSEC0.001.7287.5075.940.000.89
Charleston SouthernBSth7.141.7033.3340.27-2.38-0.33
George WashingtonA100.001.6957.1445.100.00-0.17
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.6742.8638.63-0.00-0.38
DetroitHorz7.651.670.0020.20-7.65-0.99
IonaMAAC7.141.6675.0072.483.570.75
TempleAmer7.141.6666.6762.362.380.41
SamfordSC0.001.6457.1457.520.000.25
MinnesotaB107.141.64100.0067.867.140.59
Southern MissCUSA0.001.6133.3324.23-0.00-0.83
Penn St.B100.000.2462.5043.960.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.2050.0051.260.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1966.6754.380.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1733.3336.31-0.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.1642.8644.33-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1671.4366.220.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.1642.8635.68-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1671.4371.570.000.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1660.0052.760.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1683.3362.080.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.1525.0033.54-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1520.0048.38-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.140.0033.58-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1414.2926.81-0.00-0.06
MercerSC0.000.1450.0053.050.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1350.0043.610.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.130.0027.77-0.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0083.120.000.09
DavidsonA100.000.1383.3368.880.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1385.7156.490.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.13100.0080.780.000.08
Michigan St.B100.000.1350.0061.590.000.03
PurdueB100.000.1371.4374.450.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.1375.0073.840.000.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0047.990.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1328.5750.51-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1225.0024.66-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1233.3327.13-0.00-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1250.0064.840.000.04
VMISC0.000.110.0021.15-0.00-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.890.1166.6756.020.300.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1166.6758.420.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1116.6718.96-0.00-0.07
UCFAmer0.000.1183.3374.620.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1171.4366.530.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.1185.7172.660.000.05
VCUA100.000.1185.7178.150.000.06
West VirginiaB121.020.1183.3380.550.680.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1114.2931.71-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.1057.1448.600.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.1083.3375.060.000.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1033.3341.52-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0086.250.000.08
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1016.6727.03-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1016.6734.31-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.890.0925.0053.29-0.450.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0985.7169.010.000.03
FurmanSC0.710.0920.0049.38-0.43-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0820.0034.39-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0866.6751.090.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
New HampshireAE1.820.0850.0057.480.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.600.0883.3380.700.400.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.510.0850.0052.140.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0840.0027.05-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0850.0045.410.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0885.7180.960.000.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.600.0850.0055.850.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0866.6770.930.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0883.3351.920.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0840.0057.97-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0875.0047.510.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0816.6725.61-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.32-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0833.3364.14-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0820.0036.00-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.510.0883.3362.840.340.02
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0041.31-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0842.8650.32-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0857.1469.300.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0883.3370.360.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.0666.6761.340.170.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0542.8642.47-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.170.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0571.4346.010.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0580.0068.320.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0566.6766.100.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.530.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5750.20-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0017.30-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.050.0043.04-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
La SalleA100.510.0560.0051.780.100.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.510.0583.3358.080.340.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
NevadaMWC1.430.0575.0070.470.710.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0520.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.510.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6770.740.000.02
St. John'sBE0.510.0528.5733.92-0.22-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.890.0333.3338.20-0.30-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.510.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.710.030.0021.30-0.71-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0312.5048.98-0.38-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.510.0357.1464.940.070.01
Weber St.BSky0.710.0320.0054.94-0.430.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02