live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:17
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-814.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH88-67W100%0.0
11-15Iona (89.0)MAACH99-78W100%0.0
11-18Winthrop (70.0)BSthH100-86W100%0.0
11-20Detroit (289.0)HorzH100-71W100%0.0
11-24Temple (137.0)AmerN86-89L0%0.0
11-25Illinois (62.0)B10N61-72W100%0.0
11-28Minnesota (20.0)B10H75-67W100%0.0
12-4George Washington (102.0)A10N48-67W100%0.0
12-6Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH98-49W100%0.0
12-8Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH118-63W100%0.0
12-11Florida (10.0)SECH83-78W100%0.0
12-17Manhattan (263.0)MAACN83-67W100%0.0
12-19Samford (170.0)SCH76-68W100%0.0
12-28Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH88-72W100%0.0
12-31Virginia (18.0)ACCA58-60W100%0.0
1-7Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH93-78W100%0.0
1-10Duke (6.0)ACCH88-72W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina (5.0)ACCA96-83L0%0.0
1-18Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH83-80W100%0.0
1-21Louisville (7.0)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
1-25Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA78-56L0%0.0
1-28Syracuse (84.0)ACCA82-72L0%0.0
2-1Miami FL (41.0)ACCA57-75W100%0.0
2-5Clemson (69.0)ACCH109-61W100%0.0
2-8North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH95-71W100%0.0
2-11Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA84-72L0%0.0
2-18Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA80-66L0%0.0
2-20Boston College (219.0)ACCH104-72W100%0.0
2-25Clemson (69.0)ACCA74-76W100%0.0
2-28Duke (6.0)ACCA75-70L0%0.0
3-4Miami FL (41.0)ACCH66-57W100%0.0
3-9Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCN74-68W100%0.0
3-10Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN73-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.1026.1077.2477.2414.2214.22
Notre DameACC5.085.0874.1974.192.462.46
DukeACC3.733.7378.7978.792.152.15
Miami FLACC3.663.6670.0070.001.461.46
Virginia TechACC3.643.6473.3373.331.701.70
ClemsonACC3.613.6156.6756.670.480.48
Boston CollegeACC2.172.1729.0329.03-0.91-0.91
Wake ForestACC2.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
VirginiaACC2.162.1670.9770.970.910.91
North CarolinaACC2.162.1678.1278.121.221.22
North Carolina St.ACC2.152.1548.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC2.142.1477.4277.421.171.17
PittsburghACC2.102.1046.8846.88-0.13-0.13
SyracuseACC2.102.1054.8454.840.200.20
WinthropBSth1.641.6482.7682.761.081.08
Charleston SouthernBSth1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
ManhattanMAAC1.631.6332.2632.26-0.58-0.58
IllinoisB101.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
FloridaSEC1.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
George WashingtonA101.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
DetroitHorz1.561.5624.1424.14-0.81-0.81
IonaMAAC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Nicholls St.Slnd1.561.5638.4638.46-0.36-0.36
TempleAmer1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC1.541.5454.8454.840.150.15
MinnesotaB101.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
Southern MissCUSA1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
Penn St.B100.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
MichiganB100.170.1768.5768.570.060.06
IowaB100.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
NorthwesternB100.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
RiderMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
VillanovaBE0.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
SienaMAAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MaristMAAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
WisconsinB100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
RiceCUSA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
MaineAE0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
ElonCAA0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
UNLVMWC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00