Florida St.

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	21.9
Current RPI:	18
Expected SOS:	15
Current SOS:	10
Current Record:	16-6
Expected Record:	22-8
Current Conf Record:	7-1
Expected Conf Record:	13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	16.72%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC RPI:	75
Expected OOC SOS:	30

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-6	9.3	3.68%
23-7	12.7	17.15%
22-8	17.8	30.94%
21-9	24.3	28.16%
20-10	32.3	14.72%
19-11	42.0	4.58%
18-12	53.4	0.72%
17-13	68.5	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	79-67	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	73-50	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	79-66	W	100%	0.0
11-20	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	H	80-39	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	N	53-73	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	N	41-46	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	N	78-76	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	65-49	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	76-51	W	100%	0.0
12-11	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	75-60	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	H	77-61	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Florida (14.9)	SEC	A	82-64	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	73-75	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Auburn (147.6)	SEC	H	85-56	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	A	79-59	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	A	59-63	W	100%	0.0
1-14	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	H	90-57	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	H	84-70	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	73-76	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	A	52-75	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	H	68-54	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	H	58-55	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	A	0-0		94%	16.8
2-11	Miami FL (64.4)	ACC	H	0-0		81%	9.4
2-16	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	H	0-0		79%	8.8
2-18	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	0-0		58%	2.1
2-23	Duke (4.2)	ACC	H	0-0		53%	0.8
2-26	Miami FL (64.4)	ACC	A	0-0		60%	2.7
3-1	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	A	0-0		42%	-2.3
3-4	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	H	0-0		86%	11.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida St.	ACC	26.14	26.12	70.45	70.26	10.69	10.59
Duke	ACC	2.68	3.91	90.48	87.20	2.17	2.91
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.58	3.91	59.09	58.28	0.47	0.65
Clemson	ACC	2.52	3.88	47.62	47.75	-0.12	-0.18
Virginia	ACC	2.47	3.88	85.71	80.21	1.77	2.35
Miami FL	ACC	0.35	3.88	65.00	62.25	0.11	0.95
Boston College	ACC	0.40	2.33	30.43	27.13	-0.16	-1.07
North Carolina	ACC	2.53	2.33	90.91	85.93	2.07	1.67
Maryland	ACC	2.52	2.30	61.90	52.57	0.60	0.12
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.36	2.28	70.83	65.16	0.15	0.69
Wake Forest	ACC	2.53	2.27	50.00	45.16	0.00	-0.22
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.53	2.25	40.91	43.57	-0.46	-0.29
Stetson	ASun	2.54	1.84	33.33	32.47	-0.85	-0.65
Harvard	Ivy	2.43	1.84	90.00	87.47	1.94	1.38
NC Greensboro	SC	2.32	1.78	36.36	34.66	-0.63	-0.55
Jacksonville	ASun	2.37	1.75	18.18	22.78	-1.51	-0.95
Central Florida	CUSA	2.43	1.75	75.00	69.07	1.22	0.67
Florida	SEC	2.37	1.75	81.82	76.89	1.51	0.94
Massachusetts	A10	2.27	1.75	77.27	70.95	1.24	0.73
Princeton	Ivy	2.27	1.75	44.44	51.12	-0.25	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	2.37	1.75	75.00	71.98	1.19	0.77
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.38	1.73	57.89	62.74	0.38	0.44
Connecticut	BE	2.38	1.73	66.67	62.75	0.79	0.44
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.33	1.70	61.90	59.90	0.55	0.34
Auburn	SEC	2.27	1.69	59.09	50.49	0.41	0.02
South Alabama	SB	2.27	1.67	55.00	54.99	0.23	0.17
North Florida	ASun	0.30	0.28	45.83	46.68	-0.03	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.20	0.23	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.26	0.20	58.33	59.98	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.20	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.25	0.20	59.09	57.28	0.05	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.25	0.19	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.22	0.17	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.21	0.17	34.78	34.61	-0.06	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.21	0.17	72.22	63.19	0.09	0.05
Belmont	ASun	0.20	0.17	69.57	73.28	0.08	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.17	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.02
Elon	SC	0.21	0.17	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.17	20.83	20.60	-0.09	-0.10
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.17	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.16	0.16	72.73	66.81	0.07	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.25	0.16	40.91	39.56	-0.05	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.16	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.14
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.15	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.15	34.78	38.77	-0.05	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.21	0.15	40.91	39.82	-0.04	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.16	0.15	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.21	0.15	9.52	11.44	-0.17	-0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.14	36.84	41.45	-0.04	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.20	0.14	8.70	11.67	-0.17	-0.11
Mercer	ASun	0.20	0.14	70.83	71.64	0.08	0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.14	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.16	0.14	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.14	35.00	39.29	-0.04	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.14	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.14	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.10
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.21	0.12	83.33	84.76	0.14	0.09
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.12	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.17	0.12	72.22	71.97	0.07	0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.17	0.12	40.91	43.66	-0.03	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.12	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.12	27.27	23.80	-0.05	-0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.12	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.12	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.12	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.12	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.12	40.00	41.30	-0.03	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.20	0.12	38.10	42.78	-0.05	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.12	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.21	0.12	19.05	22.37	-0.13	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.11	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.05
Samford	SC	0.15	0.11	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.16	0.11	68.18	67.64	0.06	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.15	0.11	75.00	76.00	0.08	0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.11	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.15	0.11	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.11	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.15	0.11	4.00	5.26	-0.14	-0.10
Seton Hall	BE	0.20	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.06	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.11	76.19	76.76	0.08	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.11	28.00	28.91	-0.07	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.10	0.11	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.11	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.11	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.09	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.08	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.09	81.82	81.49	0.07	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.07	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.09	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.08	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.08	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.08	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.08	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.11	0.08	23.53	33.28	-0.06	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.10	0.08	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.08	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.15	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.08	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.08	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.03	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.06	82.61	84.57	0.07	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.00	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.03	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.10	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.00	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.00	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.00	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.05	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.05	25.00	23.75	-0.05	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.05	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.00	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.00	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.03	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.00	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.00	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.00	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.00	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.00	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.00	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.00	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01