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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Florida St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:110.0
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:63
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16110.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Manhattan (168.0)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
11-18Northeastern (86.0)CAAH73-76L0%0.0
11-22Providence (22.0)BEN80-54L0%0.0
11-23Massachusetts (80.0)A10N75-69L0%0.0
11-25The Citadel (327.0)SCH66-55W100%0.0
11-28Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH58-47W100%0.0
12-1Nebraska (158.0)B10H65-70L0%0.0
12-6UCF (257.0)AmerH96-73W100%0.0
12-13Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA83-63L0%0.0
12-17North Florida (162.0)ASunH93-77W100%0.0
12-20South Florida (273.0)AmerN62-75W100%0.0
12-22Stetson (335.0)ASunH63-59W100%0.0
12-30Florida (72.0)SECH65-63W100%0.0
1-2Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA62-55L0%0.0
1-6Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH86-75W100%0.0
1-11Syracuse (69.0)ACCA70-57L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA73-64L0%0.0
1-17North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH63-72L0%0.0
1-19Clemson (106.0)ACCA55-59W100%0.0
1-24North Carolina (11.0)ACCA78-74L0%0.0
1-28Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH82-76W100%0.0
2-1Miami FL (65.0)ACCH55-54W100%0.0
2-4Clemson (106.0)ACCH56-62L0%0.0
2-7Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA65-73W100%0.0
2-9Duke (6.0)ACCH70-73L0%0.0
2-14Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA53-57W100%0.0
2-18Boston College (165.0)ACCH69-60W100%0.0
2-22Virginia (7.0)ACCA51-41L0%0.0
2-25Miami FL (65.0)ACCA81-77L0%0.0
2-28Louisville (21.0)ACCH59-81L0%0.0
3-7Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH61-52W100%0.0
3-11Clemson (106.0)ACCN73-76W100%0.0
3-12Virginia (7.0)ACCN58-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida St.ACC26.1326.1346.2146.21-1.98-1.98
ClemsonACC5.015.0153.5753.570.360.36
Virginia TechACC3.673.6735.4835.48-1.07-1.07
Miami FLACC3.663.6664.5264.521.061.06
VirginiaACC3.593.5990.0090.002.872.87
PittsburghACC3.573.5756.6756.670.480.48
North Carolina St.ACC2.252.2559.3859.380.420.42
Notre DameACC2.242.2484.8584.851.561.56
North CarolinaACC2.202.2067.6567.650.780.78
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1941.9441.94-0.35-0.35
Wake ForestACC2.152.1541.9441.94-0.35-0.35
LouisvilleACC2.142.1474.1974.191.041.04
Georgia TechACC2.122.1240.0040.00-0.42-0.42
SyracuseACC2.102.1056.6756.670.280.28
DukeACC2.102.1087.5087.501.571.57
FloridaSEC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE1.631.6365.6265.620.510.51
MassachusettsA101.631.6351.6151.610.050.05
StetsonASun1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
ManhattanMAAC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
North FloridaASun1.601.6066.6766.670.530.53
UCFAmer1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
South FloridaAmer1.591.5926.6726.67-0.74-0.74
NortheasternCAA1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
The CitadelSC1.561.5630.7730.77-0.60-0.60
Charleston SouthernBSth1.541.5461.5461.540.350.35
Mississippi St.SEC1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
NebraskaB101.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
USC UpstateASun0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
RutgersB100.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
KentuckySEC0.160.16100.00100.000.160.16
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
TulaneAmer0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
AuburnSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
OaklandHorz0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.120.1274.0774.070.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
BinghamtonAE0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
ElonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00