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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:150.0
Current RPI:150
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:33
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19150.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
11-17Tulane (214.0)AmerA49-71W100%0.0
11-19Arkansas (19.0)SECA83-53L0%0.0
11-21Iona (51.0)MAACH81-85L0%0.0
11-24Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH75-48W100%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH83-49W100%0.0
11-28Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH65-72L0%0.0
12-2Minnesota (98.0)B10H69-84L0%0.0
12-6North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA78-65L0%0.0
12-14Samford (305.0)SCH86-68W100%0.0
12-20Florida (72.0)SECN63-50L0%0.0
12-22Bucknell (136.0)PatH60-53W100%0.0
12-28Richmond (56.0)A10A63-65W100%0.0
12-31Princeton (191.0)IvyH80-66W100%0.0
1-4Louisville (21.0)ACCH76-85L0%0.0
1-7Duke (6.0)ACCH65-73L0%0.0
1-10Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH76-69W100%0.0
1-13Syracuse (69.0)ACCA86-83L0%0.0
1-21North Carolina (11.0)ACCH71-87L0%0.0
1-24Clemson (106.0)ACCA59-57L0%0.0
1-28Florida St. (110.0)ACCA82-76L0%0.0
1-31Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH73-70W100%0.0
2-3North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH88-84W100%0.0
2-7Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA73-59L0%0.0
2-11Miami FL (65.0)ACCH72-70W100%0.0
2-14Virginia (7.0)ACCA61-60L0%0.0
2-17Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA88-75L0%0.0
2-25Virginia (7.0)ACCH34-70L0%0.0
3-1Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH69-66W100%0.0
3-4Duke (6.0)ACCA94-51L0%0.0
3-7Boston College (165.0)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
3-10Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCN80-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.0326.0334.5634.56-8.04-8.04
North Carolina St.ACC3.733.7361.2961.290.840.84
VirginiaACC3.703.7090.0090.002.962.96
Virginia TechACC3.683.6832.2632.26-1.31-1.31
DukeACC3.683.6887.1087.102.732.73
Georgia TechACC3.633.6337.9337.93-0.88-0.88
North CarolinaACC2.312.3167.6567.650.820.82
Notre DameACC2.262.2684.8584.851.581.58
Florida St.ACC2.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC2.212.2165.6265.620.690.69
ClemsonACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
Boston CollegeACC2.162.1638.7138.71-0.49-0.49
LouisvilleACC2.162.1674.1974.191.051.05
SyracuseACC2.142.1456.6756.670.290.29
ArkansasSEC1.661.6675.7675.760.850.85
FloridaSEC1.661.6646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
RichmondA101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
IonaMAAC1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Delaware St.MEAC1.611.6146.8846.88-0.10-0.10
BucknellPat1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
MinnesotaB101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
SamfordSC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Nicholls St.Slnd1.561.5628.0028.00-0.69-0.69
PrincetonIvy1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
TulaneAmer1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
WoffordSC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
KentuckySEC0.160.16100.00100.000.160.16
LibertyBSth0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
HarvardIvy0.130.1374.0774.070.060.06
WisconsinB100.130.1391.1891.180.100.10
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
FurmanSC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
High PointBSth0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
CampbellBSth0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
IowaB100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
LSUSEC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
SienaMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
BryantNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01