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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:92.9
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:122
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:158



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-712.50.02%
23-820.20.08%
22-926.10.41%
21-1033.11.18%
20-1142.93.16%
19-1253.17.08%
18-1364.912.00%
17-1477.915.73%
16-1591.718.97%
15-16105.517.40%
14-17120.112.44%
13-18135.77.09%
12-19150.33.07%
11-20167.51.11%
10-21181.30.23%
9-22191.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNC Asheville (181.9)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
11-17Tulane (232.8)AmerA49-71W100%0.0
11-19Arkansas (23.2)SECA83-53L0%0.0
11-21Iona (44.8)MAACH81-85L0%0.0
11-24Nicholls St. (290.3)SlndH75-48W100%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (281.1)NECH83-49W100%0.0
11-28Delaware St. (276.9)MEACH0-095%20.1
12-2Minnesota (89.2)B10H0-058%2.5
12-6North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCA0-026%-7.8
12-14Samford (303.4)SCH0-096%21.6
12-20Florida (40.2)SECN0-033%-5.4
12-22Bucknell (232.8)PatH0-092%16.9
12-28Richmond (62.2)A10A0-036%-4.2
12-31Princeton (250.6)IvyH0-091%16.1
1-4Louisville (13.1)ACCH0-027%-7.3
1-7Duke (3.6)ACCH0-020%-10.1
1-10Georgia Tech (105.4)ACCH0-069%5.8
1-13Syracuse (33.7)ACCA0-020%-10.0
1-21North Carolina (19.4)ACCH0-035%-4.6
1-24Clemson (126.8)ACCA0-042%-2.4
1-28Florida St. (165.5)ACCA0-055%1.6
1-31Virginia Tech (224.2)ACCH0-087%13.2
2-3North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCH0-048%-0.6
2-7Georgia Tech (105.4)ACCA0-046%-1.4
2-11Miami FL (10.6)ACCH0-032%-5.5
2-14Virginia (15.6)ACCA0-016%-12.1
2-17Notre Dame (62.1)ACCA0-023%-9.0
2-25Virginia (15.6)ACCH0-034%-4.9
3-1Pittsburgh (75.6)ACCH0-055%1.6
3-4Duke (3.6)ACCA0-07%-17.3
3-7Boston College (157.1)ACCA0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC31.7426.0661.5447.467.32-1.33
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.79100.0065.590.001.18
VirginiaACC0.003.76100.0073.500.001.76
DukeACC0.003.73100.0083.410.002.50
Georgia TechACC0.003.73100.0049.750.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.002.2683.3368.950.000.86
ClemsonACC0.002.2560.0050.520.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.002.2575.0067.510.000.79
LouisvilleACC0.002.23100.0079.360.001.31
Virginia TechACC0.002.2060.0036.750.00-0.58
Florida St.ACC0.002.2040.0038.52-0.00-0.51
Miami FLACC0.002.20100.0080.200.001.33
PittsburghACC0.002.2060.0058.320.000.37
SyracuseACC0.002.2080.0067.760.000.78
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1740.0037.87-0.00-0.53
ArkansasSEC8.331.72100.0079.088.331.00
FloridaSEC0.001.6950.0064.830.000.50
IonaMAAC8.331.6775.0078.694.170.96
Mount St. Mary'sNEC8.331.6733.3337.97-2.78-0.40
Delaware St.MEAC1.881.6625.0040.92-0.94-0.30
RichmondA100.001.6650.0064.060.000.47
BucknellPat1.041.6433.3336.78-0.35-0.43
MinnesotaB100.001.6450.0055.780.000.19
SamfordSC0.001.6433.3336.09-0.00-0.46
Nicholls St.Slnd8.331.610.0033.18-8.33-0.54
PrincetonIvy0.001.6125.0038.61-0.00-0.37
TulaneAmer8.331.61100.0041.278.33-0.28
UNC AshevilleBSth8.331.6133.3354.72-2.780.15
WoffordSC0.830.1880.0077.430.500.10
PurdueB100.000.1683.3368.600.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1466.6773.440.000.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1425.0048.11-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1460.0067.390.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.14100.0086.460.000.10
VanderbiltSEC0.000.14100.0053.810.000.01
South CarolinaSEC1.040.1450.0051.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1480.0071.830.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1475.0071.150.000.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.040.1414.2931.08-0.74-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.0022.89-0.00-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1475.0069.010.000.05
DavidsonA100.000.1466.6761.870.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.14100.0089.070.000.11
TempleAmer0.000.1460.0050.320.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0045.580.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1375.0055.330.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0058.520.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.1325.0027.83-0.00-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1350.0044.110.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1340.0032.41-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1383.3366.600.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1220.0029.02-0.00-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0034.56-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1175.0055.980.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1125.0046.64-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.610.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1140.0048.44-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA2.220.1175.0038.821.11-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1133.3339.40-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1160.0056.970.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0035.63-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1120.0038.27-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.1166.6765.830.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1166.6753.550.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1160.0055.990.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1183.3348.410.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.1120.0021.73-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0061.080.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.830.1125.0049.12-0.42-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1175.0069.280.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0052.920.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1140.0033.60-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1180.0073.080.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1140.0031.26-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.58-0.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1175.0072.040.000.05
ArmyPat0.000.11100.0069.410.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.11100.0066.080.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1120.0033.15-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0028.78-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0069.720.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.10100.0066.690.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1025.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0052.660.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0920.0034.64-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0048.64-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0940.0057.50-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0933.3353.30-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.090.0023.29-0.00-0.05
YaleIvy0.000.0980.0070.280.000.04
East CarolinaAmer1.040.0925.0035.38-0.52-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0975.0064.980.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3339.590.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC1.040.0866.6758.830.350.01
LafayettePat0.000.0860.0060.080.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0032.51-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0850.0027.510.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.08100.0071.860.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0051.96-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0046.840.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0820.0041.72-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0833.3346.61-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.64-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0816.6745.77-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0880.0046.930.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.08100.0056.620.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0875.0053.300.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0074.750.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0875.0068.260.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0866.6740.010.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0875.0056.120.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0866.6759.500.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.080.0028.63-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0860.0037.550.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0022.97-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0825.0045.71-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.110.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0820.0043.55-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0036.41-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0039.02-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0820.0029.93-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0825.0036.44-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0833.3361.50-0.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0840.0060.24-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0833.3330.18-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0875.0052.090.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0046.27-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.91-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0650.0073.640.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.02-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.01-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0625.0040.45-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.950.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.71-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0680.0070.250.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.79-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.360.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0049.14-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0066.35-0.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0034.11-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC1.390.060.0035.41-1.39-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0046.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.37-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.460.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.08-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0018.42-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0533.3357.92-0.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0550.0024.520.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0580.0058.430.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0571.4357.180.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0065.110.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6739.87-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0580.0074.520.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.05100.0060.350.000.01
SMUAmer1.040.0550.0065.300.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0566.6747.140.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0525.0041.79-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0525.0047.86-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0520.0042.40-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0533.3354.15-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0533.3338.74-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3330.11-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0516.6726.44-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0077.100.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0580.0062.960.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0550.0052.730.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.68-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0054.340.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0540.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0580.0071.650.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0560.0068.220.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0525.0051.07-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0052.150.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0580.0066.690.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.05100.0077.900.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0550.0055.700.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.050.0039.18-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0580.0070.970.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.41-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.310.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.030.0043.61-0.00-0.00
UCLAP121.390.0380.0063.410.830.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0045.69-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.490.000.01
ArizonaP121.040.03100.0075.691.040.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0071.480.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6759.280.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.390.030.0015.65-1.39-0.02
NJITind0.000.0320.0029.79-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.34-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.95-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0036.120.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0040.80-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.57-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.210.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.27-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3345.71-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.120.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0042.29-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.190.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC1.040.030.0062.99-1.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.95-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.46-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.01-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.520.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.800.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0062.480.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.630.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.26-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0052.52-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.570.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.370.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.530.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0044.18-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0030.90-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00