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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:133.8
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:29
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1256.30.03%
17-1364.90.14%
16-1474.21.28%
15-1587.74.50%
14-16102.711.85%
13-17119.221.76%
12-18136.426.40%
11-19153.421.15%
10-20168.910.07%
9-21184.02.53%
8-22200.40.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Georgia Southern (119.1)SBH83-85L0%0.0
11-14Liberty (235.9)BSthH66-79L0%0.0
11-17Drake (160.6)MVCN74-77L0%0.0
11-18Quinnipiac (303.0)MAACN72-55W100%0.0
11-19Houston (42.5)AmerN73-78L0%0.0
11-24UNC Greensboro (117.6)SCH81-75W100%0.0
11-28Illinois (161.2)B10H80-73W100%0.0
12-2Richmond (201.6)A10H82-53W100%0.0
12-5Charlotte (301.7)CUSAA57-80W100%0.0
12-8Army (190.1)PatH109-80W100%0.0
12-18Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBA80-84W100%0.0
12-23Tennessee (24.1)SECH60-79L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina (5.5)ACCA73-69L0%0.0
1-3Syracuse (44.3)ACCH73-67W100%0.0
1-6Boston College (99.6)ACCA77-71L0%0.0
1-10Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCH75-83L0%0.0
1-13Duke (3.1)ACCA89-71L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCA72-63L0%0.0
1-21Virginia (4.0)ACCH49-59L0%0.0
1-23Duke (3.1)ACCH0-014%-12.1
1-27Louisville (23.4)ACCA0-017%-10.7
1-31Florida St. (39.9)ACCH0-034%-4.7
2-3Clemson (14.0)ACCH0-037%-3.7
2-7Miami FL (25.8)ACCA0-017%-10.4
2-11Syracuse (44.3)ACCA0-025%-7.4
2-14Georgia Tech (145.8)ACCH0-067%5.0
2-17North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCH0-056%1.7
2-21Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA0-067%4.8
2-24Notre Dame (57.8)ACCH0-035%-4.4
3-3Georgia Tech (145.8)ACCA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.3426.0537.3636.70-6.66-6.93
North Carolina St.ACC2.933.9163.1655.260.770.41
Georgia TechACC0.213.8852.6343.060.01-0.54
SyracuseACC2.773.8572.2262.881.230.99
DukeACC2.763.8588.8984.672.152.67
North CarolinaACC2.842.3278.9574.231.641.12
VirginiaACC3.052.3294.4485.662.711.65
Boston CollegeACC2.912.2963.1653.160.760.14
PittsburghACC0.282.2940.0030.79-0.06-0.88
ClemsonACC0.262.2984.2173.590.181.08
Notre DameACC0.202.2963.1660.870.050.50
Virginia TechACC2.772.2666.6756.330.920.29
LouisvilleACC0.142.2478.9569.340.080.87
Florida St.ACC0.342.2473.6869.750.160.88
Miami FLACC0.142.2477.7870.070.080.90
TennesseeSEC2.761.8070.5967.861.140.64
UNC GreensboroSC2.841.7873.3370.111.330.72
LibertyBSth2.851.7547.0652.49-0.170.09
Georgia SouthernSB2.701.7064.7164.130.800.48
HoustonAmer2.701.7077.7872.061.500.75
QuinnipiacMAAC2.701.7036.8432.93-0.71-0.58
Coastal CarolinaSB2.701.7029.4139.56-1.11-0.35
RichmondA102.701.6933.3335.55-0.90-0.49
ArmyPat2.631.6764.7162.680.770.42
CharlotteCUSA2.631.6725.0026.59-1.32-0.78
DrakeMVC2.631.6752.6347.220.14-0.09
IllinoisB102.631.6750.0045.800.00-0.14
PresbyterianBSth0.440.2327.7827.10-0.20-0.10
WoffordSC0.220.1768.7563.690.080.05
IndianaB100.070.1657.8950.710.010.00
Michigan St.B100.140.1685.0083.200.090.11
High PointBSth0.220.1443.7549.23-0.03-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1425.0031.45-0.07-0.05
FurmanSC0.140.1466.6768.540.050.05
ColgatePat0.140.1450.0051.030.000.00
DavidsonA100.280.1458.8261.450.050.03
FloridaSEC0.070.1473.6871.560.030.06
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1444.4450.08-0.020.00
LongwoodBSth0.220.1216.6716.16-0.15-0.08
MercerSC0.230.1244.4454.86-0.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1252.6358.590.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.1227.7831.11-0.03-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.220.1266.6765.520.070.04
Little RockSB0.070.1222.2225.25-0.04-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.150.1250.0045.870.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.1257.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.150.1235.2942.76-0.04-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.1260.0062.030.010.03
MaristMAAC0.210.1221.0522.02-0.12-0.06
The CitadelSC0.150.1118.7518.36-0.09-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1138.8935.37-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.210.1161.9068.020.050.04
LehighPat0.140.1138.8944.75-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.070.1160.0055.160.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1183.3381.370.090.07
VMISC0.150.1125.0024.15-0.07-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1161.1151.910.030.00
IonaMAAC0.140.1160.0064.110.030.03
George MasonA100.070.1145.0041.30-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.1145.0043.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.210.1147.3746.92-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.140.1163.1657.890.040.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1152.6347.520.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1166.6755.940.000.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1173.6867.970.070.04
Penn St.B100.070.1161.9055.760.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0922.2228.59-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0933.3337.23-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.0977.7879.150.090.05
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0950.0053.260.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0938.8940.78-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.140.0922.2227.47-0.08-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0922.2228.66-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.0968.4263.650.050.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0978.9576.750.080.05
SamfordSC0.000.0927.7832.660.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.140.0957.8958.850.020.02
DelawareCAA0.150.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.150.0942.1132.47-0.02-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0957.1453.050.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.150.0935.0026.12-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.210.0975.0077.850.100.05
ColumbiaIvy0.200.0820.0032.25-0.12-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.0815.7920.91-0.14-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0868.4254.090.030.01
BradleyMVC0.140.0865.0057.880.040.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0870.0068.300.060.03
ElonCAA0.150.0852.6351.080.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.4446.65-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0889.4785.550.050.06
DrexelCAA0.200.0830.0030.99-0.08-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0838.8944.08-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.170.020.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0863.6457.630.040.01
RutgersB100.000.0855.0046.690.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0852.6351.740.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0836.8435.57-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.140.0860.0059.700.030.02
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0878.9577.380.080.05
WisconsinB100.140.0850.0046.300.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0821.0524.75-0.08-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.210.0868.4264.200.080.02
DartmouthIvy0.130.0821.4326.35-0.08-0.04
IowaB100.200.0847.6244.02-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.140.0840.0042.69-0.03-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.140.0866.6759.820.050.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.0825.0028.01-0.07-0.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0880.9576.520.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0890.4888.370.060.06
SienaMAAC0.130.0828.5729.94-0.06-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0855.0052.470.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0852.6347.390.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0810.0019.630.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.140.0868.4254.070.050.01
MarylandB100.140.0870.0065.250.060.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0855.0050.330.010.00
South DakotaSum0.140.0873.6872.380.060.04
SouthernSWAC0.140.0827.7840.97-0.06-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.730.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.089.5217.12-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0827.7831.71-0.06-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0852.9459.250.000.01
AmericanPat0.070.0626.3228.11-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0647.0647.410.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0666.6765.640.050.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0626.3230.49-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.150.0650.0054.890.000.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0668.4270.810.030.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0650.0059.450.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.0620.0041.73-0.09-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.0625.0028.24-0.07-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0672.2274.710.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0641.1838.470.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.21-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.130.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0627.7834.50-0.06-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.970.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0644.4446.00-0.02-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.140.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.07-0.07-0.05
ColoradoP120.130.0660.0053.720.030.00
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.31-0.01-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0678.9574.190.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0650.0050.860.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.140.0666.6763.200.050.01
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0627.7841.03-0.06-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.240.050.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0683.3381.430.050.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.570.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0570.0058.090.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0570.0071.230.030.02
HartfordAE0.130.0550.0045.930.00-0.00
MaineAE0.130.0510.5314.83-0.10-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0528.5731.26-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0565.0058.540.000.01
MichiganB100.140.0576.1970.740.070.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0542.1144.960.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0555.5656.740.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.0570.0060.470.050.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0584.2178.170.050.03
ArizonaP120.070.0580.0078.940.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.460.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.930.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.059.5217.900.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.0533.3333.23-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.97-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0536.8444.110.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0533.3333.77-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0584.2179.750.050.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0558.8263.210.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0557.1460.410.010.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0547.3742.160.00-0.01
TexasB120.070.0563.1657.630.020.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.700.020.02
UCLAP120.000.0565.0062.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0545.0045.030.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0566.6766.020.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0568.4269.250.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0541.1847.560.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.26-0.05-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.06-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.290.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0355.5655.540.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.000.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.700.000.00
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.330.00-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.990.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0361.1147.220.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.340.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0343.7554.11-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.410.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.220.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.980.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.030.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.960.030.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.320.010.00
UCFAmer0.000.0368.4260.860.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.070.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.010.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0371.4370.240.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.090.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.35-0.06-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.150.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.69-0.04-0.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0067.890.000.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0370.5969.630.000.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01