live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:183.0
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18183.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Loyola MD (77.0)MAACH75-63W100%0.0
11-16Georgia Southern (203.0)SCH81-72W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina Central (233.0)MEACH93-79W100%0.0
11-24Dayton (81.0)A10N76-80L0%0.0
11-25Arizona St. (252.0)P12N84-56L0%0.0
11-27Texas Tech (241.0)B12N61-70W100%0.0
11-30Nebraska (154.0)B10A53-55W100%0.0
12-3Richmond (127.0)A10H62-70L0%0.0
12-7High Point (268.0)BSthA83-87W100%0.0
12-10Seton Hall (68.0)BEA68-54L0%0.0
12-18Gardner Webb (293.0)BSthH67-59W100%0.0
12-21NC Wilmington (214.0)CAAH87-78W100%0.0
12-29Yale (102.0)IvyH72-71W100%0.0
1-2Wofford (178.0)SCH52-56L0%0.0
1-7Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCH58-55W100%0.0
1-11Maryland (105.0)ACCA70-64L0%0.0
1-14North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCH40-76L0%0.0
1-19Duke (5.0)ACCA91-73L0%0.0
1-21Boston College (244.0)ACCA56-71W100%0.0
1-25Florida St. (11.0)ACCH52-75L0%0.0
1-28Clemson (151.0)ACCA71-60L0%0.0
1-31North Carolina (3.0)ACCH53-68L0%0.0
2-4North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCA87-76L0%0.0
2-8Virginia (53.0)ACCA68-44L0%0.0
2-11Clemson (151.0)ACCH58-78L0%0.0
2-15Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCH59-50W100%0.0
2-18Miami FL (60.0)ACCA74-56L0%0.0
2-25Boston College (244.0)ACCH85-56W100%0.0
2-28Duke (5.0)ACCH71-79L0%0.0
3-3Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCA69-62L0%0.0
3-8Maryland (105.0)ACCN82-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.1126.1137.5937.59-6.48-6.48
North Carolina St.ACC3.893.8962.5062.500.970.97
MarylandACC3.833.8350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC3.833.8334.4834.48-1.19-1.19
Boston CollegeACC3.803.8031.0331.03-1.44-1.44
ClemsonACC3.783.7848.2848.28-0.13-0.13
DukeACC3.783.7880.6580.652.312.31
North CarolinaACC2.342.3484.8584.851.631.63
Virginia TechACC2.322.3250.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC2.292.2971.8871.881.001.00
Miami FLACC2.292.2960.0060.000.460.46
VirginiaACC2.242.2470.0070.000.890.89
Gardner WebbBSth1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
High PointBSth1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
WoffordSC1.701.7055.1755.170.180.18
DaytonA101.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
NC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Seton HallBE1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
Georgia SouthernSC1.671.6748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.661.6648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
RichmondA101.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy1.641.6468.0068.000.590.59
Arizona St.P121.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Loyola MDMAAC1.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
NebraskaB101.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Texas TechB121.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
DavidsonSC0.210.2177.4277.420.120.12
NC AshevilleBSth0.210.2170.0070.000.080.08
CampbellBSth0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.190.1914.2914.29-0.14-0.14
FurmanSC0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
NC GreensboroSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonSC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1657.6957.690.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
RadfordBSth0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
MassachusettsA100.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Michigan St.B100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
TempleA100.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.140.1486.2186.210.100.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
SamfordSC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
IllinoisB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
SienaMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CornellIvy0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
LibertyBSth0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DePaulBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
RutgersBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
WashingtonP120.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
XavierA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Florida InternationalSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SyracuseBE0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Texas ChristianMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
George MasonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MissouriB120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Texas A&MB120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Longwoodind0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
ButlerHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
North TexasSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Seattleind0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0396.4396.430.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00