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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:160.0
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20160.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Georgia Southern (140.0)SBH83-85L0%0.0
11-14Liberty (211.0)BSthH66-79L0%0.0
11-17Drake (166.0)MVCN74-77L0%0.0
11-18Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACN72-55W100%0.0
11-19Houston (18.0)AmerN73-78L0%0.0
11-24UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH81-75W100%0.0
11-28Illinois (181.0)B10H80-73W100%0.0
12-2Richmond (176.0)A10H82-53W100%0.0
12-5Charlotte (323.0)CUSAA57-80W100%0.0
12-8Army (280.0)PatH109-80W100%0.0
12-18Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBA80-84W100%0.0
12-23Tennessee (8.0)SECH60-79L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina (4.0)ACCA73-69L0%0.0
1-3Syracuse (45.0)ACCH73-67W100%0.0
1-6Boston College (96.0)ACCA77-71L0%0.0
1-10Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH75-83L0%0.0
1-13Duke (7.0)ACCA89-71L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA72-63L0%0.0
1-21Virginia (1.0)ACCH49-59L0%0.0
1-23Duke (7.0)ACCH70-84L0%0.0
1-27Louisville (38.0)ACCA96-77L0%0.0
1-31Florida St. (54.0)ACCH76-72W100%0.0
2-3Clemson (11.0)ACCH67-75L0%0.0
2-7Miami FL (28.0)ACCA87-81L0%0.0
2-11Syracuse (45.0)ACCA78-70L0%0.0
2-14Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH79-62W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH84-90L0%0.0
2-21Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA57-63W100%0.0
2-24Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH71-76L0%0.0
3-3Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA64-56L0%0.0
3-6Syracuse (45.0)ACCN73-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.0826.0831.5431.54-9.63-9.63
SyracuseACC5.335.3360.0060.001.071.07
North Carolina St.ACC3.793.7963.3363.331.011.01
DukeACC3.773.7777.4277.422.072.07
Georgia TechACC3.773.7740.0040.00-0.75-0.75
North CarolinaACC2.412.4170.5970.590.990.99
Boston CollegeACC2.362.3654.5554.550.210.21
VirginiaACC2.332.3393.7593.752.042.04
Notre DameACC2.312.3156.2556.250.290.29
ClemsonACC2.262.2670.9770.970.950.95
PittsburghACC2.262.2625.8125.81-1.09-1.09
LouisvilleACC2.212.2159.3859.380.410.41
Virginia TechACC2.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
Florida St.ACC2.182.1866.6766.670.730.73
Miami FLACC2.182.1870.0070.000.870.87
TennesseeSEC1.741.7475.0075.000.870.87
UNC GreensboroSC1.711.7180.0080.001.031.03
LibertyBSth1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Georgia SouthernSB1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Coastal CarolinaSB1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
HoustonAmer1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
QuinnipiacMAAC1.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
RichmondA101.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
ArmyPat1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
CharlotteCUSA1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
DrakeMVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
IllinoisB101.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
PresbyterianBSth0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
WoffordSC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
ColgatePat0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
IndianaB100.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Texas St.SB0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
High PointBSth0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
NavyPat0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
MercerSC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
South DakotaSum0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00