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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:59.3
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:46
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-710.40.08%
22-814.20.21%
21-916.90.71%
20-1022.11.97%
19-1127.34.77%
18-1234.510.59%
17-1342.915.66%
16-1453.120.37%
15-1564.717.93%
14-1677.614.17%
13-1791.87.98%
12-18107.03.97%
11-19122.71.22%
10-20140.20.31%
9-21146.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Radford (250.4)BSthH80-59W100%0.0
11-13Bucknell (97.9)PatH94-74W100%0.0
11-17UTEP (255.5)CUSAN81-103W100%0.0
11-18Villanova (7.4)BEN77-96L0%0.0
11-20College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA61-78W100%0.0
11-23Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-28Northwestern (60.3)B10A65-58L0%0.0
12-3Richmond (173.8)A10A0-066%4.9
12-6Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH0-089%14.4
12-9UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-071%6.6
12-17Xavier (11.9)BEA0-019%-10.7
12-22LSU (94.2)SECH0-073%7.2
12-28Florida St. (50.8)ACCA0-031%-6.0
12-31Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-058%2.4
1-3Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-091%16.2
1-8Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-08%-17.2
1-11North Carolina (5.9)ACCH0-020%-9.9
1-18Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-042%-2.4
1-21North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-050%0.0
1-24Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-020%-10.2
1-28Duke (8.6)ACCH0-022%-9.1
1-31Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-080%10.0
2-4Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-078%9.4
2-7Notre Dame (26.0)ACCA0-018%-10.8
2-11North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCH0-070%6.2
2-14Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-038%-3.7
2-18Duke (8.6)ACCA0-010%-15.3
2-22Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCH0-060%3.0
3-1Louisville (6.5)ACCH0-025%-8.2
3-4Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-034%-4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC28.9126.0472.4152.6512.961.38
Boston CollegeACC0.003.8850.0028.120.00-1.70
ClemsonACC0.003.8866.6753.560.000.28
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.8571.4351.290.000.10
DukeACC0.003.8587.5078.330.002.18
North CarolinaACC0.002.3285.7180.020.001.39
Notre DameACC0.512.32100.0074.790.511.15
VirginiaACC0.002.29100.0082.210.001.48
Florida St.ACC0.002.2985.7162.180.000.56
Virginia TechACC0.002.2985.7162.820.000.59
Georgia TechACC0.002.2966.6740.340.00-0.44
Miami FLACC0.002.2971.4366.010.000.73
SyracuseACC0.002.2666.6769.810.000.90
LouisvilleACC0.002.2485.7175.980.001.16
PittsburghACC0.002.2485.7156.060.000.27
VillanovaBE7.591.80100.0082.567.591.17
XavierBE0.001.78100.0074.580.000.87
College of CharlestonCAA8.161.7571.4358.453.500.30
RichmondA100.451.7557.1449.090.06-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.001.7066.6752.560.000.09
UTEPCUSA7.141.7033.3344.86-2.38-0.17
BucknellPat7.141.6985.7169.925.100.68
Coastal CarolinaSB7.591.6933.3340.85-2.53-0.31
LSUSEC0.001.6971.4350.550.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.6966.6759.510.000.32
NorthwesternB107.141.6966.6765.092.380.51
RadfordBSth7.141.6940.0037.66-1.43-0.42
DavidsonA100.000.2083.3368.880.000.07
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1920.0036.00-0.00-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1971.4356.280.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.1750.0051.260.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1766.6765.810.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.170.0033.58-0.00-0.06
ElonCAA0.000.1783.3358.030.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1787.5075.320.000.08
GeorgetownBE0.000.1650.0047.560.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.960.16100.0075.690.960.08
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0076.650.000.09
MercerSC0.600.1450.0053.050.000.01
VMISC0.600.140.0021.15-0.60-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1433.3323.33-0.00-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.600.1450.0045.410.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1483.3377.170.000.08
AlabamaSEC0.510.1466.6756.020.170.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1483.3355.200.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1440.0055.44-0.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1462.5043.960.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1350.0053.530.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1380.0035.960.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1383.3362.080.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.1357.1442.660.00-0.02
PurdueB100.510.1371.4374.450.220.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1328.5733.92-0.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1371.4363.090.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1250.0064.840.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1220.0034.39-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1283.3359.600.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1285.7169.010.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.510.1266.6769.810.170.05
The CitadelSC0.450.1240.0027.05-0.09-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1216.6718.96-0.00-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1125.0038.72-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.110.0028.15-0.00-0.05
MarylandB100.000.1185.7156.490.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.23-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.450.1128.5743.62-0.19-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1166.6754.380.000.01
VCUA100.000.1185.7178.150.000.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0080.780.000.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0041.31-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.520.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1183.3370.360.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0940.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0940.0067.95-0.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0933.3327.13-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0920.0048.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0960.0070.500.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0975.0047.510.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.890.0971.4343.020.38-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.32-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.510.080.0018.22-0.51-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0814.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.450.0825.0039.28-0.22-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0842.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0816.6725.61-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0883.3344.770.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
La SalleA100.000.0860.0051.780.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0816.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
LafayettePat0.510.0833.3331.87-0.17-0.03
LehighPat0.000.0833.3367.01-0.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0833.3340.49-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0840.0057.49-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.0842.8647.69-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.450.0633.3338.20-0.15-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Western MichiganMAC1.400.0616.6736.45-0.94-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0566.6772.440.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0585.7172.660.000.02
PennIvy0.510.0540.0057.97-0.100.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.960.0583.3374.620.640.03
VanderbiltSEC0.450.0557.1448.860.06-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0571.4386.030.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0533.3364.14-0.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0533.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
BryantNEC0.510.0528.5750.20-0.220.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0540.0050.91-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0017.30-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.050.0023.47-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0055.850.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.0566.6751.460.170.00
HartfordAE0.000.0512.5022.55-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.050.0043.04-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0566.6754.420.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0533.3338.19-0.15-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0542.8635.68-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0585.7165.670.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0571.4371.570.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0514.2947.44-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0047.990.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0542.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0516.6733.82-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.600.0383.3369.840.400.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.890.0350.0056.430.000.00
StetsonASun0.600.0328.5728.26-0.26-0.01
BYUWCC0.510.0371.4368.660.220.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.510.030.0023.26-0.51-0.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.450.0350.0058.980.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.510.030.0024.77-0.51-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.450.030.0038.35-0.45-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.450.0316.6740.71-0.30-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
TexasB120.510.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01