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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:113.0
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:76
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16113.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Colgate (256.0)PatH89-78W100%0.0
11-12VMI (211.0)BSthH98-71W100%0.0
11-15Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH90-83W100%0.0
11-21The Citadel (345.0)SCH82-54W100%0.0
11-28Kansas (3.0)B12N78-87L0%0.0
11-29USC (176.0)P12N63-77W100%0.0
11-30Tennessee (42.0)SECN63-82L0%0.0
12-4Tulane (223.0)CUSAH72-57W100%0.0
12-7Richmond (75.0)A10H76-66W100%0.0
12-17St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H77-62W100%0.0
12-21UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH59-51W100%0.0
12-28Xavier (47.0)BEA68-53L0%0.0
1-5North Carolina (25.0)ACCH73-67W100%0.0
1-8Virginia (8.0)ACCA74-51L0%0.0
1-11Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA80-65L0%0.0
1-15North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH70-69W100%0.0
1-18Clemson (79.0)ACCA61-53L0%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA77-83W100%0.0
1-25Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH65-58W100%0.0
1-29Syracuse (16.0)ACCH57-67L0%0.0
2-1Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH70-79L0%0.0
2-4Duke (9.0)ACCA83-63L0%0.0
2-11North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA82-67L0%0.0
2-15Florida St. (54.0)ACCH60-67L0%0.0
2-18Maryland (78.0)ACCA71-60L0%0.0
2-22North Carolina (25.0)ACCA105-72L0%0.0
2-25Clemson (79.0)ACCH62-57W100%0.0
3-1Boston College (207.0)ACCH72-80L0%0.0
3-5Duke (9.0)ACCH82-72W100%0.0
3-8Miami FL (110.0)ACCA69-56L0%0.0
3-12Notre Dame (136.0)ACCN81-69W100%0.0
3-13Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN84-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.0626.0645.7445.74-2.22-2.22
North Carolina St.ACC3.713.7162.5062.500.930.93
DukeACC3.683.6878.1278.122.072.07
North CarolinaACC3.683.6873.3373.331.721.72
PittsburghACC3.663.6671.8871.881.601.60
ClemsonACC3.633.6363.3363.330.970.97
Notre DameACC3.563.5650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC2.222.2246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
VirginiaACC2.212.2181.8281.821.411.41
SyracuseACC2.162.1683.8783.871.461.46
Florida St.ACC2.152.1558.0658.060.350.35
Miami FLACC2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.132.1330.0030.00-0.85-0.85
Boston CollegeACC2.122.1220.0020.00-1.27-1.27
MarylandACC2.092.0950.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC1.711.7139.2939.29-0.37-0.37
TennesseeSEC1.661.6661.2961.290.370.37
The CitadelSC1.641.6414.2914.29-1.17-1.17
VMIBSth1.641.6457.6957.690.250.25
PresbyterianBSth1.621.6213.7913.79-1.17-1.17
RichmondA101.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
XavierBE1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
USCP121.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
ColgatePat1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
St. BonaventureA101.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
KansasB121.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
TulaneCUSA1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
JacksonvilleASun1.541.5437.0437.04-0.40-0.40
DavidsonSC0.270.2761.2961.290.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
FurmanSC0.180.1825.9325.93-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.170.1722.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Appalachian St.SC0.170.1719.2319.23-0.11-0.11
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
East CarolinaCUSA0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
RadfordBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
CampbellBSth0.130.1332.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.120.123.703.70-0.11-0.11
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
La SalleA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
SamfordSC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01