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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:156.3
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:139
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1249.00.02%
18-1365.50.11%
17-1480.30.53%
16-1592.51.94%
15-16107.54.61%
14-17121.210.19%
13-18136.416.64%
12-19151.921.02%
11-20168.220.27%
10-21185.314.37%
9-22201.57.34%
8-23219.42.21%
7-24234.00.64%
6-25240.60.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthH80-69W100%0.0
11-17Tulane (152.3)AmerA49-71W100%0.0
11-19Arkansas (42.2)SECA83-53L0%0.0
11-21Iona (79.7)MAACH81-85L0%0.0
11-24Nicholls St. (334.1)SlndH75-48W100%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECH83-49W100%0.0
11-28Delaware St. (247.9)MEACH65-72L0%0.0
12-2Minnesota (52.8)B10H69-84L0%0.0
12-6North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA78-65L0%0.0
12-14Samford (323.7)SCH86-68W100%0.0
12-20Florida (39.0)SECN0-016%-11.5
12-22Bucknell (256.3)PatH0-087%13.4
12-28Richmond (87.3)A10A0-026%-7.6
12-31Princeton (236.6)IvyH0-077%8.8
1-4Louisville (7.1)ACCH0-011%-14.6
1-7Duke (4.6)ACCH0-010%-15.1
1-10Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCH0-056%1.6
1-13Syracuse (71.5)ACCA0-016%-11.5
1-21North Carolina (11.6)ACCH0-016%-11.9
1-24Clemson (159.7)ACCA0-036%-4.3
1-28Florida St. (207.5)ACCA0-044%-1.7
1-31Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCH0-073%7.4
2-3North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCH0-035%-4.5
2-7Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCA0-027%-7.1
2-11Miami FL (23.0)ACCH0-026%-7.7
2-14Virginia (7.3)ACCA0-03%-22.3
2-17Notre Dame (68.4)ACCA0-011%-14.7
2-25Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-012%-13.6
3-1Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCH0-055%1.6
3-4Duke (4.6)ACCA0-02%-23.9
3-7Boston College (153.8)ACCA0-038%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC27.9226.0441.3033.01-4.86-8.85
North Carolina St.ACC5.003.7880.0062.853.000.97
VirginiaACC0.003.75100.0084.810.002.61
DukeACC0.003.73100.0086.670.002.73
Georgia TechACC0.003.7277.7850.830.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.002.2770.0071.200.000.96
Notre DameACC0.312.2590.9171.310.260.96
ClemsonACC0.282.2466.6745.020.09-0.22
LouisvilleACC0.282.22100.0085.190.281.56
PittsburghACC0.212.1966.6752.600.070.11
Virginia TechACC0.002.1955.5638.520.00-0.50
Florida St.ACC0.002.1950.0036.910.00-0.57
Miami FLACC0.002.1990.0075.560.001.12
SyracuseACC0.002.1966.6756.940.000.30
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1666.6741.420.00-0.37
ArkansasSEC5.531.7275.0071.032.760.72
FloridaSEC0.001.7260.0064.300.000.49
IonaMAAC5.531.6762.5071.421.380.71
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.001.6742.8639.31-0.71-0.36
Delaware St.MEAC5.561.6633.3344.82-1.85-0.17
RichmondA100.231.6655.5656.520.030.22
BucknellPat0.311.6440.0037.11-0.06-0.42
MinnesotaB105.001.6475.0063.522.500.44
SamfordSC5.001.6436.3632.67-1.36-0.57
Nicholls St.Slnd5.001.610.0019.73-5.00-0.98
PrincetonIvy0.001.6127.2738.39-0.00-0.37
TulaneAmer5.001.61100.0056.755.000.22
UNC AshevilleBSth5.001.6116.6747.00-3.33-0.10
WoffordSC0.510.1877.7876.240.280.10
PurdueB100.440.1672.7363.730.200.04
WisconsinB100.420.1490.9188.390.340.11
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.1450.0056.340.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.620.1472.7367.750.280.05
CharlotteCUSA0.360.1460.0064.610.070.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.310.1441.6744.33-0.05-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1485.7172.940.000.06
PresbyterianBSth0.210.140.008.63-0.21-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.360.1462.5064.260.090.04
TempleAmer0.000.1463.6455.600.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1350.0057.510.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.230.1344.4444.78-0.03-0.01
RiderMAAC0.280.1350.0052.800.000.01
St. John'sBE0.280.1387.5065.040.210.04
GeorgiaSEC0.280.1362.5059.510.070.03
DaytonA100.280.1377.7870.120.150.05
FurmanSC0.210.1325.0029.59-0.10-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.310.1350.0039.340.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1387.5077.020.000.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1375.0060.400.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1344.4439.74-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1360.0055.630.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0094.790.000.12
TennesseeSEC0.230.1350.0046.150.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.250.1225.0044.59-0.13-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0034.77-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1162.5056.410.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1150.0055.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA1.220.1142.8636.79-0.17-0.03
MichiganB100.420.1155.5642.550.05-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.280.1120.0041.46-0.17-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1128.5741.17-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1120.0029.81-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.1142.8649.98-0.03-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.44-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1177.7869.190.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.1118.1828.02-0.20-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.310.1133.3327.70-0.10-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.250.1162.5073.190.060.05
RutgersB100.000.1160.0035.070.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9153.850.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1125.0025.93-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7868.780.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.1133.3349.71-0.09-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.340.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1157.1453.130.000.01
IowaB100.000.1172.7362.590.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1110.0018.61-0.00-0.07
VCUA100.000.1170.0071.420.000.05
The CitadelSC0.000.1116.6730.84-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1090.0066.940.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.440.1010.0018.58-0.35-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.1080.0064.110.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1072.7373.150.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1072.7353.260.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1022.2237.50-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1070.0052.610.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0975.0074.340.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0911.1144.04-0.24-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0037.73-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0937.5050.40-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0928.5747.31-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.360.0837.5038.60-0.09-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.360.0871.4363.890.150.02
PennIvy0.250.0837.5033.00-0.06-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.0822.2240.44-0.14-0.02
UABCUSA0.360.0830.0037.28-0.14-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0862.5064.770.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0828.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.79-0.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.240.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0840.0050.32-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0855.5634.940.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0872.7367.180.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0860.0065.400.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0875.0069.820.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0011.87-0.00-0.06
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.660.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0860.0040.620.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0830.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.230.0818.1844.62-0.14-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0836.3647.13-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0837.5034.19-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0043.08-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0870.0060.790.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.960.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0820.0021.58-0.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6743.780.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0822.2237.75-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.210.0833.3339.22-0.07-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4436.35-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.630.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0890.0084.680.000.05
SienaMAAC0.000.0837.5051.81-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0860.0059.420.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.58-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0814.2930.74-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0875.0065.410.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7865.390.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1456.750.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.51-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0625.0049.09-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.57-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.420.0672.7357.280.190.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.360.0655.5638.600.04-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.85-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.360.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.54-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0012.36-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.590.050.0033.84-0.59-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.0066.690.000.02
HawaiiBW0.250.0566.6754.830.080.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0518.1835.99-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0544.4470.08-0.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0588.8981.310.000.03
SMUAmer0.280.0570.0071.330.110.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.19-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.900.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0537.5047.71-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0555.5647.870.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0537.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0016.85-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0560.0064.620.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.0520.0028.20-0.12-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.930.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.0536.3633.67-0.06-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0533.3345.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.57-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0053.700.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0082.080.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0555.5649.500.03-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6754.660.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.230.0575.0068.680.110.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0555.5661.390.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0037.13-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.23-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0575.0071.730.000.02
HofstraCAA0.230.0577.7878.540.130.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0540.0050.07-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.280.0544.4456.51-0.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0566.6757.860.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.0078.050.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0544.4449.65-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.050.0036.67-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0057.570.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.12-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.000.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.46-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.310.03100.0080.590.310.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.250.030.007.39-0.25-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.310.0371.4359.920.130.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.0310.0018.01-0.25-0.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.84-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.310.0390.0067.260.250.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.210.0322.2230.99-0.12-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.08-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0032.77-0.14-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5046.50-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
UMBCAE0.280.0310.0020.91-0.22-0.02
UMKCWAC0.210.0322.2241.92-0.12-0.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.0333.3362.92-0.090.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.550.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.460.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.88-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0333.3332.85-0.09-0.01
Iowa St.B120.280.0388.8963.800.220.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.33-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.220.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.91-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.430.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.830.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.31-0.00-0.01