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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:38.0
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:18
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Radford (227.0)BSthH80-59W100%0.0
11-13Bucknell (63.0)PatH94-74W100%0.0
11-17UTEP (222.0)CUSAN81-103W100%0.0
11-18Villanova (1.0)BEN77-96L0%0.0
11-20College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA61-78W100%0.0
11-23Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH86-74W100%0.0
11-28Northwestern (50.0)B10A65-58L0%0.0
12-3Richmond (80.0)A10A67-75W100%0.0
12-6Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH91-74W100%0.0
12-9UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA75-78W100%0.0
12-17Xavier (37.0)BEA69-65L0%0.0
12-22LSU (193.0)SECH110-76W100%0.0
12-28Florida St. (14.0)ACCA88-72L0%0.0
12-31Clemson (69.0)ACCH68-73L0%0.0
1-3Boston College (219.0)ACCH79-66W100%0.0
1-8Virginia (18.0)ACCA79-62L0%0.0
1-11North Carolina (5.0)ACCH87-93L0%0.0
1-18Miami FL (41.0)ACCH96-79W100%0.0
1-21North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA88-93W100%0.0
1-24Syracuse (84.0)ACCA81-76L0%0.0
1-28Duke (6.0)ACCH83-85L0%0.0
1-31Boston College (219.0)ACCA80-85W100%0.0
2-4Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH81-69W100%0.0
2-7Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA88-81L0%0.0
2-11North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH88-58W100%0.0
2-14Clemson (69.0)ACCA95-83L0%0.0
2-18Duke (6.0)ACCA99-94L0%0.0
2-22Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH63-59W100%0.0
3-1Louisville (7.0)ACCH88-81W100%0.0
3-4Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA84-89W100%0.0
3-7Boston College (219.0)ACCN92-78W100%0.0
3-8Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCN99-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.1126.1160.7160.715.605.60
Boston CollegeACC5.225.2231.0331.03-1.98-1.98
ClemsonACC3.773.7750.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC3.753.7575.7675.761.931.93
Virginia TechACC3.753.7570.0070.001.501.50
North Carolina St.ACC3.683.6850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.312.3172.7372.731.051.05
North CarolinaACC2.262.2678.1278.121.271.27
VirginiaACC2.232.2367.7467.740.790.79
Miami FLACC2.232.2367.7467.740.790.79
Florida St.ACC2.232.2375.0075.001.121.12
SyracuseACC2.192.1954.8454.840.210.21
Georgia TechACC2.192.1953.3353.330.150.15
PittsburghACC2.172.1750.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC2.162.1677.4277.421.181.18
VillanovaBE1.681.6890.9190.911.371.37
RichmondA101.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
XavierBE1.661.6660.6160.610.350.35
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
UTEPCUSA1.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5942.8642.86-0.23-0.23
BucknellPat1.591.5978.7978.790.910.91
UNC GreensboroSC1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
Coastal CarolinaSB1.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
LSUSEC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
RadfordBSth1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
NorthwesternB101.591.5966.6766.670.530.53
ProvidenceBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
CreightonBE0.190.1972.7372.730.080.08
WoffordSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
ButlerBE0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
AuburnSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
TowsonCAA0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
MercerSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
MaineAE0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
MaristMAAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01