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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20159.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMBC (335.0)AEH78-73W100%0.0
11-15Bucknell (183.0)PatA82-90W100%0.0
11-18Richmond (121.0)A10H82-91L0%0.0
11-23Indiana (24.0)B10N78-82W100%0.0
11-24Vanderbilt (63.0)SECN64-86L0%0.0
11-25UCLA (102.0)P12N77-80W100%0.0
11-30Rutgers (294.0)B10A68-69W100%0.0
12-4Arkansas (133.0)SECH88-85W100%0.0
12-15UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH81-71W100%0.0
12-18Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH83-77W100%0.0
12-22Xavier (7.0)BEH70-78L0%0.0
12-29LSU (94.0)SECA71-77W100%0.0
1-3Louisville (17.0)ACCA65-57L0%0.0
1-6Duke (20.0)ACCH75-91L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH77-74W100%0.0
1-13Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA93-91L0%0.0
1-16Syracuse (72.0)ACCH55-83L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina (5.0)ACCA83-68L0%0.0
1-23Miami FL (9.0)ACCA77-63L0%0.0
1-26Virginia (3.0)ACCH71-72L0%0.0
1-31Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA85-62L0%0.0
2-2Clemson (131.0)ACCH62-76L0%0.0
2-6Florida St. (82.0)ACCH71-91L0%0.0
2-10Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA71-66L0%0.0
2-13North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA99-88L0%0.0
2-16Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA101-96L0%0.0
2-21Boston College (250.0)ACCH74-48W100%0.0
2-24Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH58-69L0%0.0
2-28Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH74-81L0%0.0
3-1Duke (20.0)ACCA79-71L0%0.0
3-8North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCN75-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.0826.0832.8932.89-8.93-8.93
North Carolina St.ACC5.475.4746.6746.67-0.36-0.36
DukeACC3.923.9267.7467.741.391.39
Notre DameACC3.823.8263.3363.331.021.02
Virginia TechACC3.783.7854.8454.840.370.37
North CarolinaACC2.392.3981.8281.821.521.52
Florida St.ACC2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
Miami FLACC2.282.2877.4277.421.251.25
Georgia TechACC2.272.2756.2556.250.280.28
VirginiaACC2.262.2678.1278.121.271.27
PittsburghACC2.232.2363.3363.330.600.60
Boston CollegeACC2.212.2122.5822.58-1.21-1.21
ClemsonACC2.212.2153.3353.330.150.15
SyracuseACC2.192.1958.0658.060.350.35
LouisvilleACC2.182.1873.3373.331.021.02
LSUSEC1.761.7659.3859.380.330.33
IndianaB101.741.7480.6580.651.071.07
ArkansasSEC1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC1.711.7139.2939.29-0.37-0.37
BucknellPat1.691.6957.1457.140.240.24
RutgersB101.661.6620.0020.00-1.00-1.00
VanderbiltSEC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
UCLAP121.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
RichmondA101.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
XavierBE1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
FloridaSEC0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
KentuckySEC0.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
AlabamaSEC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.200.2044.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
MissouriSEC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
MichiganB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
High PointBSth0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
AuburnSEC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.150.1547.0647.06-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
ColgatePat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
MinnesotaB100.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
LafayettePat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01