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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Wake Forest

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:126.2
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:10
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:1-10
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1472.80.17%
15-1586.21.66%
14-1699.28.18%
13-17113.825.61%
12-18129.539.10%
11-19143.822.01%
10-20156.83.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wake Forest.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMBC (318.8)AEH78-73W100%0.0
11-15Bucknell (167.5)PatA82-90W100%0.0
11-18Richmond (108.9)A10H82-91L0%0.0
11-23Indiana (39.6)B10N78-82W100%0.0
11-24Vanderbilt (53.3)SECN64-86L0%0.0
11-25UCLA (70.9)P12N77-80W100%0.0
11-30Rutgers (281.5)B10A68-69W100%0.0
12-4Arkansas (88.9)SECH88-85W100%0.0
12-15UNC Greensboro (265.4)SCH81-71W100%0.0
12-18Coastal Carolina (155.6)BSthH83-77W100%0.0
12-22Xavier (7.8)BEH70-78L0%0.0
12-29LSU (81.4)SECA71-77W100%0.0
1-3Louisville (15.9)ACCA65-57L0%0.0
1-6Duke (20.7)ACCH75-91L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina St. (116.7)ACCH77-74W100%0.0
1-13Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCA93-91L0%0.0
1-16Syracuse (52.7)ACCH55-83L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina (10.7)ACCA83-68L0%0.0
1-23Miami FL (14.2)ACCA77-63L0%0.0
1-26Virginia (6.1)ACCH71-72L0%0.0
1-31Notre Dame (40.3)ACCA85-62L0%0.0
2-2Clemson (100.4)ACCH62-76L0%0.0
2-6Florida St. (46.9)ACCH71-91L0%0.0
2-10Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCA0-018%-9.8
2-13North Carolina St. (116.7)ACCA0-021%-8.8
2-16Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCA0-011%-13.2
2-21Boston College (234.2)ACCH0-081%9.7
2-24Notre Dame (40.3)ACCH0-027%-6.6
2-28Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCH0-054%1.0
3-1Duke (20.7)ACCA0-05%-17.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wake Forest's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wake Forest's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wake Forest.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wake ForestACC26.1026.0540.0038.10-5.22-6.20
North Carolina St.ACC2.703.9752.1749.760.12-0.02
DukeACC2.553.9172.7368.171.161.42
Notre DameACC2.503.8868.1864.390.911.12
Virginia TechACC2.553.8552.1747.640.11-0.18
North CarolinaACC2.602.3581.8277.981.651.31
Georgia TechACC0.422.3054.5551.850.040.09
Miami FLACC2.502.2980.0074.651.501.13
LouisvilleACC2.452.2781.8276.981.561.22
Boston CollegeACC0.432.2730.4326.75-0.17-1.05
ClemsonACC2.652.2759.0958.840.480.40
Florida St.ACC2.552.2768.1863.670.930.62
VirginiaACC2.512.2781.8277.301.591.24
PittsburghACC0.372.2676.1967.480.190.79
SyracuseACC2.512.2465.2261.320.760.51
IndianaB102.321.8082.6176.501.510.96
LSUSEC2.311.8068.1862.290.840.44
ArkansasSEC2.271.7754.5557.800.210.28
UNC GreensboroSC2.271.7530.0033.08-0.91-0.59
RutgersB102.271.7222.7321.05-1.24-1.00
BucknellPat2.221.7257.1460.310.320.35
VanderbiltSEC2.271.7254.5558.670.210.30
UCLAP122.221.6959.0955.020.400.17
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.171.6763.1662.580.570.42
RichmondA102.171.6752.3852.980.100.10
UMBCAE2.171.6725.0027.29-1.09-0.76
XavierBE2.171.6790.9183.841.781.13
KentuckySEC0.280.2473.9171.570.140.10
AlabamaSEC0.240.2259.0953.030.040.01
FloridaSEC0.290.2265.2266.080.090.07
WoffordSC0.250.2040.9145.38-0.05-0.02
St. John'sBE0.320.1926.0923.73-0.15-0.10
MissouriSEC0.140.1934.7830.36-0.04-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.230.1978.2678.040.130.11
AuburnSEC0.200.1740.9136.61-0.04-0.05
IllinoisB100.140.1647.8344.55-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.140.1681.8280.120.090.10
UMass LowellAE0.140.1631.8232.67-0.05-0.06
VCUA100.140.1673.9173.910.070.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1640.9140.64-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.1647.8346.87-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.150.1555.0057.470.020.02
ColgatePat0.140.1445.4546.10-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1426.0927.82-0.07-0.06
NebraskaB100.190.1454.1751.820.020.00
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.1752.340.010.01
MichiganB100.190.1469.5766.200.070.04
Michigan St.B100.090.1483.3383.010.060.09
Stony BrookAE0.140.1480.9582.700.090.09
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1461.9056.690.030.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1466.6763.430.050.04
PresbyterianBSth0.210.1225.0026.87-0.10-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1223.8126.56-0.08-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1245.4547.57-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1250.0051.290.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.1265.0063.440.030.03
NavyPat0.140.1262.5062.440.040.03
LehighPat0.140.1133.3337.25-0.05-0.03
VMISC0.100.1115.7917.42-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.090.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.1160.0057.950.020.02
George WashingtonA100.140.1178.2674.360.080.05
ElonCAA0.140.1152.1750.430.010.00
DuquesneA100.040.1163.6456.370.010.01
PurdueB100.090.1179.1776.550.060.06
CreightonBE0.090.1162.5059.780.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1179.1780.780.080.07
Ohio St.B100.140.1158.3354.170.020.01
VillanovaBE0.090.1186.9686.370.070.08
DaytonA100.140.1186.3682.350.100.07
West VirginiaB120.140.1182.6179.550.090.06
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1145.4551.34-0.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1186.3679.150.070.06
UtahP120.100.1172.7368.540.050.04
WisconsinB100.180.1160.8755.860.040.01
Arizona St.P120.090.1154.1751.650.010.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0934.7836.50-0.03-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0928.5731.37-0.04-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0963.6460.930.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.150.0922.7324.97-0.08-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0930.0035.78-0.04-0.02
AmericanPat0.150.0930.4331.88-0.06-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0959.0959.440.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0934.7837.18-0.03-0.02
MercerSC0.100.0972.7370.750.050.04
SamfordSC0.100.0939.1341.32-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0829.1733.14-0.04-0.03
SienaMAAC0.100.0866.6767.270.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.0869.5767.220.040.03
DePaulBE0.140.0834.7834.45-0.04-0.03
George MasonA100.100.0834.7834.21-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0873.9169.840.050.03
CornellIvy0.050.0842.1140.20-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0865.2262.900.030.02
FordhamA100.050.0855.0052.290.000.00
MarquetteBE0.140.0862.5056.260.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0875.0070.940.020.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.0845.8346.65-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0882.6178.860.060.05
USCP120.140.0878.2673.060.080.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.840.040.03
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.690.070.05
HartfordAE0.090.0826.0926.50-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0821.7423.40-0.08-0.04
MaineAE0.090.0834.7834.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.0817.6529.25-0.09-0.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0865.2259.020.030.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0855.0053.160.000.01
North FloridaASun0.140.0865.2267.130.040.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0833.3334.19-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.110.0728.5729.64-0.05-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0765.2266.160.020.02
ArmyPat0.100.0652.1753.360.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.580.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.3685.030.040.04
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.100.0639.1338.32-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0622.7324.04-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.100.0672.2274.710.040.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0652.1753.070.000.00
IPFWSum0.100.0670.8368.570.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.51-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0621.0527.81-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.340.000.00
La SalleA100.100.0620.0020.47-0.06-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.32-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.0413.54-0.03-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0534.7840.92-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0538.1040.73-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0557.8961.750.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0554.1755.090.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0538.1033.40-0.01-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0515.0027.27-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0570.0069.100.040.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0545.4554.10-0.010.00
Texas TechB120.100.0559.0953.130.020.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0545.4546.29-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.090.0575.0075.870.040.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.1778.310.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0537.5040.51-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0521.7424.68-0.02-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0525.0026.38-0.02-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.900.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.090.0530.0034.56-0.04-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0540.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.7920.03-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9170.070.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0525.0024.37-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.090.0581.8277.570.060.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0531.5831.96-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8278.150.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0561.9056.430.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.8320.12-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
TexasB120.090.0569.5762.640.040.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0533.3332.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0582.6179.430.030.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0550.0055.190.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0545.0046.77-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.040.0554.1757.520.000.01
WashingtonP120.090.0565.2261.080.030.01
Washington St.P120.090.0536.3632.01-0.03-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.620.020.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.680.040.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.21-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0352.3854.010.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0363.6459.380.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.930.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.910.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.290.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.500.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.76-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.91-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.08-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.420.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.620.010.00
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.47-0.04-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.040.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0336.8438.40-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.500.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0352.3847.050.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.55-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.300.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.450.020.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0321.7423.31-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.870.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0354.5556.010.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0335.0038.53-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.020.020.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.450.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.72-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.260.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.45-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0330.4331.18-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0365.2259.750.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0372.7371.610.000.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01