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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:9.0
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:16
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-79.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH86-59W100%0.0
11-16Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH93-77W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi St. (154.0)SECN79-105W100%0.0
11-20Utah (8.0)P12N66-90W100%0.0
11-22Butler (57.0)BEN85-75W100%0.0
11-27Northeastern (109.0)CAAH77-78L0%0.0
12-1Nebraska (165.0)B10A72-77W100%0.0
12-5Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH88-60W100%0.0
12-8Florida (55.0)SECH66-55W100%0.0
12-19College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH85-63W100%0.0
12-22La Salle (232.0)A10A49-95W100%0.0
12-29Princeton (39.0)IvyH76-64W100%0.0
1-2Syracuse (72.0)ACCH64-51W100%0.0
1-9Florida St. (82.0)ACCH72-59W100%0.0
1-12Virginia (3.0)ACCA66-58L0%0.0
1-16Clemson (131.0)ACCA76-65L0%0.0
1-20Boston College (250.0)ACCA53-67W100%0.0
1-23Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH77-63W100%0.0
1-25Duke (20.0)ACCH80-69W100%0.0
1-30North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA85-69L0%0.0
2-3Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH79-70W100%0.0
2-7Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA68-75W100%0.0
2-9Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH65-63W100%0.0
2-14Florida St. (82.0)ACCA65-67W100%0.0
2-17Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH65-49W100%0.0
2-20North Carolina (5.0)ACCA96-71L0%0.0
2-22Virginia (3.0)ACCH64-61W100%0.0
2-27Louisville (17.0)ACCH73-65W100%0.0
3-2Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA50-68W100%0.0
3-5Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA77-62L0%0.0
3-10Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCN88-82W100%0.0
3-11Virginia (3.0)ACCN73-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.1726.1779.8579.8515.6215.62
Virginia TechACC5.275.2760.0060.001.051.05
VirginiaACC5.275.2780.0080.003.163.16
Florida St.ACC3.783.7863.3363.331.011.01
Notre DameACC3.683.6870.0070.001.471.47
North CarolinaACC2.262.2681.8281.821.441.44
Georgia TechACC2.242.2459.3859.380.420.42
North Carolina St.ACC2.222.2246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
DukeACC2.222.2271.8871.880.970.97
PittsburghACC2.212.2166.6766.670.740.74
ClemsonACC2.212.2153.3353.330.150.15
Wake ForestACC2.212.2136.6736.67-0.59-0.59
SyracuseACC2.192.1961.2961.290.490.49
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1922.5822.58-1.20-1.20
LouisvilleACC2.162.1676.6776.671.151.15
NortheasternCAA1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
FloridaSEC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5943.7543.75-0.20-0.20
UtahP121.591.5978.1278.120.890.89
ButlerBE1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
La SalleA101.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
NebraskaB101.561.5648.4848.48-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy1.561.5680.7780.770.960.96
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.561.5619.2319.23-0.96-0.96
William & MaryCAA0.200.2062.0762.070.050.05
VillanovaBE0.190.1985.2985.290.140.14
HofstraCAA0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1879.4179.410.100.10
AlabamaSEC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
ElonCAA0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
DelawareCAA0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
DavidsonA100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
LSUSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
IndianaB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
NorthwesternB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
CornellIvy0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
KentuckySEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
RutgersB100.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01