Miami FL

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	64.4
Current RPI:	54
Expected SOS:	43
Current SOS:	54
Current Record:	13-7
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	4-3
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.97%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	65
Expected OOC SOS:	90

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-7	19.0	0.02%
21-8	25.4	0.56%
20-9	34.1	3.94%
19-10	44.1	13.83%
18-11	55.7	27.54%
17-12	69.0	31.30%
16-13	83.6	17.33%
15-14	97.8	5.02%
14-15	112.1	0.44%
13-16	125.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Tennessee Tech (136.1)	OVC	H	69-58	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Rutgers (141.7)	BE	H	72-57	W	100%	0.0
11-19	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	75-62	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	60-50	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	A	64-61	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Purdue (65.0)	B10	A	76-65	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	H	83-75	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	H	54-71	L	0%	0.0
12-10	West Virginia (31.4)	BE	A	77-66	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	N	93-90	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	A	61-76	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	H	84-54	W	100%	0.0
1-2	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	99-89	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	A	52-51	L	0%	0.0
1-10	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	A	73-56	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	H	76-73	W	100%	0.0
1-22	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	H	73-78	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	A	49-64	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	A	54-76	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	H	90-86	W	100%	0.0
2-5	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	0-0		14%	-11.9
2-9	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	H	0-0		60%	2.7
2-11	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	A	0-0		19%	-9.4
2-15	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	H	0-0		27%	-6.7
2-18	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	H	0-0		89%	13.2
2-21	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	0-0		61%	3.1
2-26	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	H	0-0		40%	-2.7
2-29	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	0-0		36%	-3.9
3-3	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	H	0-0		95%	17.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Miami FL	ACC	26.11	26.12	64.63	58.65	7.64	4.52
North Carolina	ACC	2.78	4.05	86.36	82.93	2.02	2.67
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.83	4.02	69.57	63.21	1.11	1.06
Maryland	ACC	2.72	4.02	61.90	53.05	0.65	0.25
Florida St.	ACC	0.39	4.02	72.73	71.83	0.18	1.75
Boston College	ACC	2.88	4.01	31.82	28.13	-1.05	-1.76
Duke	ACC	0.28	2.41	86.36	82.99	0.20	1.59
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.33	2.38	56.52	55.70	0.04	0.27
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.83	2.38	40.91	43.57	-0.51	-0.31
Virginia	ACC	2.72	2.38	80.95	76.00	1.68	1.24
Wake Forest	ACC	0.33	2.35	47.83	44.77	-0.01	-0.25
Clemson	ACC	2.67	2.32	52.38	50.03	0.13	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	2.63	1.87	36.36	34.66	-0.72	-0.57
Appalachian St.	SC	2.72	1.87	36.84	40.80	-0.72	-0.34
Massachusetts	A10	2.61	1.87	77.27	70.95	1.42	0.78
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.61	1.84	52.38	50.71	0.12	0.03
North Florida	ASun	2.56	1.81	47.83	48.29	-0.11	-0.06
West Virginia	BE	2.66	1.81	63.64	64.01	0.73	0.51
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.62	1.78	63.64	61.97	0.71	0.43
Charlotte	A10	2.61	1.78	52.38	51.21	0.12	0.04
Rutgers	BE	2.61	1.78	52.17	48.38	0.11	-0.06
Memphis	CUSA	2.56	1.75	68.18	70.56	0.93	0.72
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.50	1.72	38.10	41.19	-0.60	-0.30
Mississippi	SEC	2.50	1.72	61.90	55.22	0.60	0.18
Purdue	B10	2.50	1.72	63.64	59.27	0.68	0.32
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.40	0.30	52.38	52.86	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.28	0.26	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.28	0.21	34.78	37.24	-0.08	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.27	0.20	68.18	69.10	0.10	0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.20	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.09
Samford	SC	0.24	0.18	33.33	35.26	-0.08	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.28	0.18	8.70	11.67	-0.23	-0.14
Lipscomb	ASun	0.27	0.18	43.48	43.82	-0.04	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.17	0.18	17.39	22.00	-0.11	-0.10
Stetson	ASun	0.16	0.18	31.82	31.31	-0.06	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.23	0.18	44.44	41.71	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.22	0.17	69.57	73.28	0.08	0.08
Richmond	A10	0.22	0.17	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.17	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.10
Temple	A10	0.17	0.17	77.27	75.06	0.09	0.09
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.17	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.23	0.15	58.33	59.98	0.04	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.23	0.15	76.19	76.76	0.12	0.08
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.15	70.83	71.64	0.09	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.17	0.15	33.33	37.16	-0.06	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.15	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.11
Morehead St.	OVC	0.22	0.15	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.17	0.14	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.14	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.16	0.14	82.61	77.63	0.10	0.08
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.22	0.14	59.09	57.28	0.04	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.14	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.14	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.27	0.14	80.95	77.38	0.17	0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.14	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.17	0.14	72.73	66.81	0.08	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.14	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.12
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.17	0.12	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.12	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.17	0.12	9.52	11.44	-0.13	-0.09
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.12	83.33	84.76	0.11	0.08
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.12	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.12	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.12	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.17	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.12	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.17	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.09	0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.12	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.11	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.17	0.11	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.11	0.11	28.00	28.91	-0.05	-0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.09	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	100.00	94.55	0.11	0.08
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.09	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.17	0.09	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.17	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.09	69.57	61.31	0.05	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.09	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.17	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.17	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.09	70.83	68.82	0.05	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.15	-0.08
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.09	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.09	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.09	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.09	66.67	68.05	0.04	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.08	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.08	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.08	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.17	0.08	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.08	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.08	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.08	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.17	0.08	85.71	82.18	0.12	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.08	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.08	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.06	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.07	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.00	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.06	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.07	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.00	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.00	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.00	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.00	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.00	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.00	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.00	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.00	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.00	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.00	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.00	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.01