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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:45.8
Current RPI:44
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:38
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-47.00.04%
25-511.00.30%
24-615.51.47%
23-719.74.88%
22-824.910.75%
21-931.916.61%
20-1040.220.65%
19-1150.118.81%
18-1262.114.60%
17-1375.27.60%
16-1490.13.13%
15-15106.20.96%
14-16122.50.14%
13-17142.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Western Carolina (291.4)SCH92-43W100%0.0
11-16North Florida (270.2)ASunA56-94W100%0.0
11-19Penn (138.5)IvyH74-62W100%0.0
11-24Stanford (54.1)P12N67-53W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (31.7)B12N56-73L0%0.0
11-27Florida (9.6)SECN65-56L0%0.0
11-30Rutgers (182.4)B10H73-61W100%0.0
12-3Wofford (257.2)SCN0-095%20.0
12-6South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-0100%33.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAH0-098%23.7
12-22George Washington (176.1)A10H0-093%17.6
12-28Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-097%22.9
12-31North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCH0-084%11.7
1-4Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-035%-4.7
1-12Notre Dame (26.0)ACCH0-053%0.9
1-14Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-058%2.3
1-18Wake Forest (59.3)ACCA0-058%2.4
1-21Duke (8.6)ACCA0-021%-9.8
1-25Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-096%21.7
1-28North Carolina (5.9)ACCH0-036%-4.4
2-1Florida St. (50.8)ACCH0-068%5.7
2-4North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-068%5.5
2-8Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCH0-072%6.8
2-11Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-023%-8.8
2-15Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-089%14.9
2-18Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-075%8.0
2-20Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-017%-11.7
2-25Duke (8.6)ACCH0-038%-3.6
2-27Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-052%0.6
3-4Florida St. (50.8)ACCA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC28.8226.0667.7463.6310.237.10
Florida St.ACC0.003.9385.7163.840.001.09
DukeACC0.003.9087.5079.240.002.28
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.8571.4352.380.000.18
Virginia TechACC0.003.8585.7164.680.001.13
ClemsonACC0.002.3266.6754.430.000.21
SyracuseACC0.002.3066.6770.310.000.93
Georgia TechACC0.002.2966.6740.720.00-0.43
North CarolinaACC0.002.2985.7180.530.001.40
Wake ForestACC0.002.2971.4352.730.000.13
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2750.0028.040.00-1.00
Notre DameACC0.002.26100.0075.940.001.17
VirginiaACC0.002.26100.0082.520.001.47
LouisvilleACC0.002.2485.7175.920.001.16
PittsburghACC0.002.2485.7155.990.000.27
FloridaSEC7.651.8185.7174.505.470.88
WoffordSC0.001.750.0034.65-0.00-0.54
PennIvy7.141.7350.0060.200.000.35
ColumbiaIvy0.001.7342.8644.06-0.00-0.21
Western CarolinaSC7.141.7320.0019.64-4.29-1.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.720.0028.82-0.00-0.73
George WashingtonA100.001.7257.1445.390.00-0.16
North FloridaASun7.591.7216.6732.93-5.06-0.59
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.6720.0035.62-0.00-0.48
Iowa St.B127.141.6766.6767.902.380.60
RutgersB107.141.67100.0046.317.14-0.12
StanfordP127.141.6785.7161.215.100.37
HarvardIvy0.450.210.0043.04-0.45-0.03
The CitadelSC0.510.2040.0027.05-0.10-0.09
Penn St.B100.000.1962.5043.960.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.1833.3364.14-0.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1766.6758.420.000.03
VMISC0.000.170.0021.15-0.00-0.10
MercerSC0.450.1750.0053.050.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1757.1455.810.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1528.5730.63-0.00-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.150.0023.47-0.00-0.08
FurmanSC0.000.1520.0049.38-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1466.6769.810.000.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1450.0046.780.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1416.6725.61-0.00-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.140.0034.23-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.14100.0080.780.000.09
KansasB120.000.1485.7176.170.000.07
IowaB100.000.1442.8644.33-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1420.0036.00-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1466.6754.380.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.1457.1442.660.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.1350.0042.420.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1325.0063.95-0.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.1250.0071.330.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
Seton HallBE0.890.1271.4354.520.380.01
LSUSEC0.510.1271.4349.770.22-0.00
Ohio St.B100.600.1285.7172.660.430.05
ColoradoP120.000.1171.4359.850.000.02
VillanovaBE0.710.11100.0083.120.710.08
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.100.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
High PointBSth0.000.1150.0051.260.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1183.3362.080.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1150.0043.610.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1171.4366.220.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1183.3351.920.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1125.0038.72-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1175.0073.840.000.05
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
RichmondA100.000.1157.1448.600.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1183.3370.360.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.090.0024.19-0.51-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0957.1461.940.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.600.0983.3359.600.400.02
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0041.31-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.09100.0059.480.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0983.3363.610.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0871.4371.570.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
AuburnSEC0.510.0883.3355.200.340.01
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0833.3323.33-0.00-0.05
MichiganB100.000.0871.4366.530.000.03
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0885.7155.890.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0885.7156.490.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0885.7165.670.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.05
IndianaB100.000.0883.3375.060.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0871.4374.450.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0850.0053.530.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
NavyPat0.710.0628.5743.62-0.31-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.600.0666.6775.370.200.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.06100.0089.040.450.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.710.0640.0037.65-0.14-0.01
DrexelCAA0.600.0642.8636.82-0.09-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.600.0640.0030.80-0.12-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.710.0625.0039.28-0.36-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.960.0633.3346.81-0.32-0.00
MarquetteBE0.600.0671.4363.090.260.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.960.05100.0091.060.960.04
HartfordAE0.600.0512.5022.55-0.45-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0533.3336.31-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.650.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0055.850.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0550.0045.410.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0070.140.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0566.6754.420.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0533.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0542.8635.68-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0514.2947.44-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0047.990.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.450.0566.6770.740.150.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0560.0070.500.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.510.0350.0059.670.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.510.0333.3353.29-0.170.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.510.0371.4355.750.220.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.450.0316.6743.29-0.30-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.450.0383.3361.490.300.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.600.030.0042.55-0.60-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.450.0320.0054.94-0.270.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.510.0385.7180.960.360.02
DePaulBE0.600.0380.0035.960.36-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0312.5048.98-0.38-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.600.0316.6727.03-0.40-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.450.0340.0061.37-0.090.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00