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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:24.3
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:246
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-12.20.11%
26-23.80.65%
25-35.12.28%
24-47.86.43%
23-511.211.84%
22-615.617.31%
21-721.018.92%
20-827.417.63%
19-935.212.57%
18-1044.87.11%
17-1155.83.46%
16-1268.91.16%
15-1385.00.42%
14-14100.10.07%
13-15123.00.02%
12-16141.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH77-45W100%0.0
11-12Navy (215.1)PatH89-55W100%0.0
11-16Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH90-59W100%0.0
11-22La Salle (107.5)A10N0-087%13.5
11-25North Florida (249.2)ASunH0-098%25.5
11-29Minnesota (39.3)B10A0-048%-0.5
12-2Princeton (162.6)IvyN0-090%15.1
12-5Boston University (212.1)PatH0-097%23.1
12-16George Washington (163.9)A10A0-086%13.2
12-22Hawaii (214.5)BWA0-092%17.1
12-30Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCA0-084%12.1
1-3Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-063%4.0
1-7Florida St. (40.2)ACCH0-067%5.4
1-13Clemson (64.3)ACCA0-064%4.3
1-15Duke (6.8)ACCH0-047%-1.0
1-21North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCA0-070%6.2
1-24Louisville (28.0)ACCH0-066%5.1
1-27Florida St. (40.2)ACCA0-048%-0.6
1-31Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCH0-093%18.1
2-3Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-053%0.8
2-7Wake Forest (166.4)ACCH0-091%15.7
2-10Boston College (152.8)ACCA0-077%8.9
2-13Virginia (15.8)ACCH0-057%2.1
2-17Syracuse (45.7)ACCH0-075%8.0
2-19Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA0-040%-2.9
2-24Boston College (152.8)ACCH0-089%14.9
2-27North Carolina (9.5)ACCA0-031%-6.1
3-3Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCH0-072%6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC31.9426.09100.0075.2031.9413.15
Florida St.ACC0.004.20100.0070.050.001.68
Boston CollegeACC0.004.1775.0047.330.00-0.22
PittsburghACC2.084.1733.3336.23-0.69-1.15
Virginia TechACC0.004.1475.0063.600.001.13
LouisvilleACC0.002.50100.0068.100.000.91
SyracuseACC0.002.48100.0063.470.000.67
DukeACC0.002.47100.0084.650.001.71
Georgia TechACC0.002.450.0058.200.000.40
ClemsonACC0.002.44100.0055.650.000.28
Notre DameACC0.002.44100.0074.250.001.18
VirginiaACC0.002.44100.0075.260.001.23
North CarolinaACC0.002.42100.0078.470.001.38
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.42100.0055.560.000.27
Wake ForestACC0.002.4125.0035.910.00-0.68
George WashingtonA100.001.9166.6746.990.00-0.11
NavyPat16.671.9166.6754.695.560.18
Florida A&MMEAC16.671.850.0019.01-16.67-1.14
Boston UniversityPat0.001.850.0049.350.00-0.02
La SalleA100.001.8275.0052.570.000.09
PrincetonIvy0.001.820.0052.640.000.10
North FloridaASun0.001.810.0037.980.00-0.44
Gardner WebbBSth16.671.790.0045.31-16.67-0.17
HawaiiBW0.001.79100.0055.370.000.19
MinnesotaB100.001.79100.0072.370.000.80
LehighPat0.000.2566.6751.580.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.2150.0050.310.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.180.0061.460.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.180.0038.210.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.180.0030.280.00-0.07
FordhamA100.000.1833.3336.170.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.160.0033.700.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1633.3354.200.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1633.3350.350.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.160.0021.970.00-0.09
ArmyPat0.000.1550.0053.620.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1533.3335.310.00-0.05
FloridaSEC2.780.15100.0080.232.780.09
VCUA100.000.1566.6766.590.000.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.150.0016.000.00-0.10
DavidsonA100.000.15100.0070.080.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.15100.0047.670.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1533.3341.220.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1566.6753.390.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.15100.0060.400.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1333.3350.220.000.00
PennIvy2.080.1333.3349.35-0.69-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.130.0029.620.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1366.6759.540.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.120.0039.010.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0077.820.000.07
AmericanPat0.000.120.0030.350.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1233.3347.540.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0048.790.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.120.0031.380.00-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1225.0047.800.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0046.080.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1250.0046.150.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.120.0048.070.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1250.0042.160.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.1275.0048.930.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0034.040.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.120.0035.450.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1266.6748.280.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.1275.0055.040.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.120.0021.590.00-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1233.3335.150.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6740.070.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1233.3330.460.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.12100.0058.250.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1133.3338.050.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.1033.3334.680.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.1025.0054.930.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0933.3360.630.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.090.0064.600.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0966.6773.200.000.04
LipscombASun0.000.0933.3349.220.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3345.540.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0056.560.000.01
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.090.0039.740.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.090.0013.450.00-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.000.0950.0073.230.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.09100.0048.350.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.090.0021.380.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0066.710.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.09100.0054.140.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0966.6771.200.000.04
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
BryantNEC2.080.090.0030.23-2.08-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0054.450.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0975.0064.570.000.03
RutgersB100.000.09100.0046.880.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0028.770.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.09100.0085.360.000.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0035.130.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.070.0040.830.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0750.0051.070.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0766.6757.400.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3353.300.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0733.3331.840.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.07100.0039.270.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0060.430.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0766.6759.740.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0051.410.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0030.910.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.06100.0072.510.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC2.080.06100.0051.082.080.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0675.0076.250.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0050.360.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6766.970.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0666.6742.170.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.060.0037.310.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC2.080.06100.0075.132.080.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.610.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.040.0023.910.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.04100.0078.910.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0466.6746.830.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.040.0033.850.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0433.3346.410.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.04100.0067.160.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
UCFAmer2.780.03100.0061.782.780.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.030.0029.710.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.960.000.02
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
UNLVMWC2.080.03100.0064.722.080.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01