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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:65.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:71
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1265.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Howard (255.0)MEACH84-49W100%0.0
11-17Florida (72.0)SECA67-69W100%0.0
11-20Drexel (243.0)CAAN66-46W100%0.0
11-21Akron (115.0)MACN79-51W100%0.0
11-23Charlotte (211.0)CUSAN58-77W100%0.0
11-25Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA74-77W100%0.0
11-28South Alabama (275.0)SBH87-75W100%0.0
12-2Illinois (73.0)B10H70-61W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (54.0)HorzH55-68L0%0.0
12-8Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH70-39W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH44-72L0%0.0
12-22Providence (22.0)BEN76-62L0%0.0
12-30College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH67-40W100%0.0
1-3Virginia (7.0)ACCH80-89L0%0.0
1-10Boston College (165.0)ACCH60-56W100%0.0
1-13Duke (6.0)ACCA74-90W100%0.0
1-17Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA75-70L0%0.0
1-22North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH65-60W100%0.0
1-24Syracuse (69.0)ACCA62-66W100%0.0
1-28Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH50-70L0%0.0
2-1Florida St. (110.0)ACCA55-54L0%0.0
2-3Louisville (21.0)ACCH55-63L0%0.0
2-8Clemson (106.0)ACCH56-45W100%0.0
2-11Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA72-70L0%0.0
2-16Boston College (165.0)ACCA86-89W100%0.0
2-18Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH76-52W100%0.0
2-21Louisville (21.0)ACCA55-53L0%0.0
2-25Florida St. (110.0)ACCH81-77W100%0.0
2-28North Carolina (11.0)ACCH64-73L0%0.0
3-4Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA63-67W100%0.0
3-7Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA61-82W100%0.0
3-11Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCN59-49W100%0.0
3-12Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN70-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.1526.1560.7460.745.625.62
Virginia TechACC5.065.0636.6736.67-1.35-1.35
Florida St.ACC3.663.6651.6151.610.120.12
Notre DameACC3.643.6484.3884.382.502.50
Boston CollegeACC3.613.6143.3343.33-0.48-0.48
LouisvilleACC3.573.5773.3373.331.661.66
CharlotteCUSA3.083.0846.6746.67-0.21-0.21
North CarolinaACC2.262.2667.6567.650.800.80
VirginiaACC2.192.1990.3290.321.761.76
Georgia TechACC2.172.1736.6736.67-0.58-0.58
PittsburghACC2.152.1558.0658.060.350.35
Wake ForestACC2.142.1438.7138.71-0.48-0.48
ClemsonACC2.142.1453.3353.330.140.14
DukeACC2.142.1490.6290.621.741.74
SyracuseACC2.122.1260.0060.000.420.42
North Carolina St.ACC2.102.1062.5062.500.520.52
ProvidenceBE1.651.6565.6265.620.520.52
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6428.1228.12-0.72-0.72
Savannah St.MEAC1.621.6225.0025.00-0.81-0.81
FloridaSEC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA1.581.5839.2939.29-0.34-0.34
HowardMEAC1.571.5746.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.541.5459.2659.260.290.29
South AlabamaSB1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
AkronMAC1.521.5260.6160.610.320.32
Green BayHorz1.521.5272.4172.410.680.68
IllinoisB101.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.2023.3323.33-0.10-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SB0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.190.1952.9452.940.010.01
KentuckySEC0.190.19100.00100.000.190.19
William & MaryCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
ElonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MassachusettsA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1452.9452.940.010.01
The CitadelSC0.140.1429.6329.63-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.110.1116.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
RiceCUSA0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01