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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:41.0
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1141.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Western Carolina (271.0)SCH92-43W100%0.0
11-16North Florida (217.0)ASunA56-94W100%0.0
11-19Penn (203.0)IvyH74-62W100%0.0
11-24Stanford (100.0)P12N67-53W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (21.0)B12N56-73L0%0.0
11-27Florida (10.0)SECN65-56L0%0.0
11-30Rutgers (177.0)B10H73-61W100%0.0
12-3Wofford (190.0)SCN74-57W100%0.0
12-6South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH82-46W100%0.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH76-56W100%0.0
12-22George Washington (102.0)A10H72-64W100%0.0
12-28Columbia (262.0)IvyH78-67W100%0.0
12-31North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH81-63W100%0.0
1-4Syracuse (84.0)ACCA70-55L0%0.0
1-12Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH62-67L0%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA46-72W100%0.0
1-18Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA96-79L0%0.0
1-21Duke (6.0)ACCA70-58L0%0.0
1-25Boston College (219.0)ACCH78-77W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina (5.0)ACCH77-62W100%0.0
2-1Florida St. (14.0)ACCH57-75L0%0.0
2-4North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA79-84W100%0.0
2-8Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH74-68W100%0.0
2-11Louisville (7.0)ACCA71-66L0%0.0
2-15Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH70-61W100%0.0
2-18Clemson (69.0)ACCH71-65W100%0.0
2-20Virginia (18.0)ACCA48-54W100%0.0
2-25Duke (6.0)ACCH55-50W100%0.0
2-27Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA66-61L0%0.0
3-4Florida St. (14.0)ACCA66-57L0%0.0
3-8Syracuse (84.0)ACCN57-62W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina (5.0)ACCN78-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.0826.0864.3964.397.517.51
DukeACC3.823.8278.7978.792.202.20
Florida St.ACC3.773.7774.1974.191.821.82
North CarolinaACC3.743.7480.6580.652.292.29
SyracuseACC3.713.7156.6756.670.490.49
Virginia TechACC3.703.7070.0070.001.481.48
North Carolina St.ACC3.683.6850.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC2.282.2854.8454.840.220.22
Notre DameACC2.262.2672.7372.731.031.03
Wake ForestACC2.232.2358.0658.060.360.36
PittsburghACC2.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC2.212.2153.3353.330.150.15
VirginiaACC2.212.2170.9770.970.930.93
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1929.0329.03-0.92-0.92
LouisvilleACC2.182.1874.1974.191.061.06
FloridaSEC1.681.6874.1974.190.810.81
WoffordSC1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
North FloridaASun1.641.6437.9337.93-0.39-0.39
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.58-0.58
PennIvy1.621.6248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy1.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.84-0.84
George WashingtonA101.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.561.5629.6329.63-0.64-0.64
Iowa St.B121.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
RutgersB101.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
StanfordP121.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
The CitadelSC0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.190.1961.5461.540.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.160.1660.7160.710.040.04
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
SamfordSC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
WisconsinB100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
FurmanSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Ohio St.B100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
BrownIvy0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
ElonCAA0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01