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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:110.0
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:92
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16110.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH62-66L0%0.0
11-11Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH81-80W100%0.0
11-14Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH84-69W100%0.0
11-18College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA54-70W100%0.0
11-21UCF (220.0)AmerH58-63L0%0.0
11-28George Washington (29.0)A10N71-63L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA46-48W100%0.0
12-1Arizona St. (44.0)P12N57-60W100%0.0
12-4Nebraska (48.0)B10A60-49L0%0.0
12-8Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH60-61L0%0.0
12-19Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA51-68W100%0.0
12-22La Salle (98.0)A10H71-58W100%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (274.0)PatH71-48W100%0.0
1-4Syracuse (16.0)ACCA49-44L0%0.0
1-8North Carolina (25.0)ACCA57-63W100%0.0
1-15Florida St. (54.0)ACCH53-63L0%0.0
1-18Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA42-56W100%0.0
1-22Duke (9.0)ACCH46-67L0%0.0
1-25Syracuse (16.0)ACCH52-64L0%0.0
1-29Maryland (78.0)ACCA74-71L0%0.0
2-1Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH64-49W100%0.0
2-5Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH55-59L0%0.0
2-8North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH55-56L0%0.0
2-10Florida St. (54.0)ACCA73-77W100%0.0
2-15Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA52-45L0%0.0
2-19Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH71-64W100%0.0
2-22Boston College (207.0)ACCH69-42W100%0.0
2-26Virginia (8.0)ACCA65-40L0%0.0
3-1North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA70-85W100%0.0
3-4Clemson (79.0)ACCA58-54L0%0.0
3-8Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH69-56W100%0.0
3-12Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCN57-53W100%0.0
3-13North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCN67-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.1626.1649.7049.70-0.16-0.16
North Carolina St.ACC5.085.0861.2961.291.151.15
Virginia TechACC5.015.0125.0025.00-2.51-2.51
SyracuseACC3.613.6183.3383.332.412.41
Florida St.ACC3.593.5960.0060.000.720.72
VirginiaACC2.252.2581.8281.821.431.43
PittsburghACC2.222.2272.7372.731.011.01
MarylandACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC2.192.1975.7675.761.131.13
Boston CollegeACC2.152.1523.3323.33-1.15-1.15
Wake ForestACC2.142.1453.1253.120.130.13
ClemsonACC2.122.1261.2961.290.480.48
North CarolinaACC2.122.1274.1974.191.021.02
Georgia TechACC2.102.1050.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.082.0848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
George WashingtonA101.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
Savannah St.MEAC1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Texas SouthernSWAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Cal St. FullertonBW1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
College of CharlestonCAA1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
La SalleA101.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
UCFAmer1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Arizona St.P121.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
Georgia SouthernSC1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
Loyola MDPat1.521.5235.7135.71-0.43-0.43
NebraskaB101.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
VCUA100.260.2676.4776.470.140.14
UNC GreensboroSC0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.1983.8783.870.130.13
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
MassachusettsA100.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.11-0.11
DavidsonSC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
TempleAmer0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
The CitadelSC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
St. BonaventureA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
VMIBSth0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
IndianaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
LafayettePat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
CornellIvy0.100.103.703.70-0.09-0.09
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00