live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:102
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.00.01%
29-25.00.12%
28-36.80.59%
27-48.92.64%
26-511.87.85%
25-615.016.15%
24-718.621.25%
23-823.220.61%
22-929.016.24%
21-1036.29.43%
20-1144.93.62%
19-1256.11.21%
18-1368.30.23%
17-1484.00.02%
16-15103.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Howard (275.2)MEACH84-49W100%0.0
11-17Florida (39.0)SECA67-69W100%0.0
11-20Drexel (227.4)CAAN66-46W100%0.0
11-21Akron (148.1)MACN79-51W100%0.0
11-23Charlotte (79.6)CUSAN58-77W100%0.0
11-25Charlotte (79.6)CUSAA74-77W100%0.0
11-28South Alabama (256.5)SBH87-75W100%0.0
12-2Illinois (48.8)B10H70-61W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (43.7)HorzH55-68L0%0.0
12-8Savannah St. (320.4)MEACH70-39W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCH0-094%18.6
12-22Providence (80.8)BEN0-074%7.5
12-30College of Charleston (183.9)CAAH0-095%19.8
1-3Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-045%-1.5
1-10Boston College (153.8)ACCH0-093%17.2
1-13Duke (4.6)ACCA0-016%-11.8
1-17Notre Dame (68.4)ACCA0-041%-2.6
1-22North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCH0-074%7.5
1-24Syracuse (71.5)ACCA0-052%0.5
1-28Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCH0-088%13.7
2-1Florida St. (207.5)ACCA0-081%10.3
2-3Louisville (7.1)ACCH0-041%-2.6
2-8Clemson (159.7)ACCH0-092%16.4
2-11Wake Forest (156.3)ACCA0-074%7.7
2-15Boston College (153.8)ACCA0-076%8.5
2-18Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCH0-095%19.4
2-21Louisville (7.1)ACCA0-017%-11.3
2-25Florida St. (207.5)ACCH0-095%19.1
2-28North Carolina (11.6)ACCH0-050%0.1
3-4Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCA0-066%4.9
3-7Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCA0-082%10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC28.2526.0985.4274.2220.0112.64
Florida St.ACC0.003.8050.0039.260.00-0.82
LouisvilleACC0.233.75100.0086.320.232.73
Virginia TechACC0.003.7555.5639.960.00-0.75
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7566.6744.010.00-0.45
CharlotteCUSA10.003.2875.0069.065.001.25
PittsburghACC0.002.2466.6752.960.000.13
Notre DameACC0.002.2290.9172.330.000.99
SyracuseACC0.002.2266.6758.120.000.36
North CarolinaACC0.252.2270.0072.360.100.99
Georgia TechACC0.002.2277.7852.700.000.12
VirginiaACC0.002.21100.0086.350.001.61
Wake ForestACC0.002.1950.0038.410.00-0.51
ClemsonACC0.002.1966.6746.960.00-0.13
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.1781.8265.380.000.67
DukeACC0.002.16100.0087.230.001.61
ProvidenceBE0.001.7472.7354.160.000.15
Savannah St.MEAC5.001.7220.0029.06-3.00-0.72
College of CharlestonCAA0.501.7250.0046.250.00-0.13
FloridaSEC5.001.7266.6767.091.670.59
HowardMEAC5.001.6733.3345.53-1.67-0.15
DrexelCAA5.001.6628.5738.50-2.14-0.38
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.231.6442.8657.56-0.030.25
South AlabamaSB5.001.640.0037.98-5.00-0.39
AkronMAC5.001.6166.6758.511.670.27
Green BayHorz5.001.6171.4377.652.140.89
IllinoisB105.001.6180.0068.123.000.58
MarshallCUSA0.230.2125.0038.92-0.11-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.200.0014.79-0.23-0.14
William & MaryCAA0.500.1957.1456.750.070.03
ElonCAA0.500.1937.5047.87-0.13-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.500.1937.5034.19-0.13-0.06
KentuckySEC0.000.19100.0094.790.000.17
Penn St.B100.750.1990.9153.850.610.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1720.0029.81-0.00-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.1733.3349.71-0.08-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.1666.6757.860.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1650.0053.700.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1690.0066.940.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1660.0055.630.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1655.5649.500.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.1455.5638.600.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.230.1440.0050.32-0.050.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1441.6744.33-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.140.0023.15-0.25-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.1470.0060.790.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1477.7878.540.000.08
LSUSEC0.000.1380.0064.110.000.04
IndianaB100.230.1380.0057.630.140.02
South CarolinaSEC0.750.1362.5064.260.190.04
DavidsonA100.500.1387.5077.020.380.07
GeorgetownBE0.250.1366.6759.460.080.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1316.6730.84-0.00-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.310.1262.5071.290.080.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0012.36-0.00-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1150.0056.340.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1130.0031.57-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.1144.4470.08-0.030.05
DelawareCAA0.000.110.007.39-0.00-0.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1118.1835.99-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1166.6751.430.000.00
USCP120.560.1160.0036.120.11-0.03
RichmondA100.670.1155.5657.090.070.02
Southern MissCUSA0.730.1142.8627.08-0.10-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.670.1144.4445.64-0.07-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1130.0028.50-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.110.0011.87-0.00-0.08
FIUCUSA0.000.1044.4451.04-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1072.7367.750.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1072.7373.150.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1077.7864.730.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1042.8636.79-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1090.0084.680.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1088.8981.310.000.07
PurdueB100.000.1072.7363.730.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1016.6726.28-0.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.1087.5065.040.000.03
UABCUSA0.250.1030.0037.28-0.10-0.03
VillanovaBE0.230.10100.0082.080.230.07
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6743.780.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0918.1846.16-0.20-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0980.0069.620.000.04
DetroitHorz0.420.0944.4448.88-0.05-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0016.85-0.00-0.06
IUPUISum0.250.0920.0026.33-0.15-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0942.8638.26-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.450.0828.5747.31-0.19-0.00
CornellIvy0.310.0855.5648.240.03-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0840.0046.73-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.310.0875.0069.120.160.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0850.0052.710.000.00
WisconsinB100.310.0890.9188.390.260.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.230.0866.6762.620.080.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.0833.3345.28-0.08-0.01
RadfordBSth0.250.0850.0055.810.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0877.7870.120.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0885.7172.940.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0860.0035.070.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0860.0059.420.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.960.000.03
George WashingtonA100.500.0866.6766.340.170.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0860.0040.620.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.400.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0880.0072.550.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0850.0057.510.000.01
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.590.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0050.07-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.550.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.080.008.63-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7865.390.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.500.0814.2945.19-0.36-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0842.8649.98-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0822.2237.50-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0850.0039.340.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0844.4444.78-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.28-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.600.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0636.3640.98-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.670.0675.0058.430.330.01
Austin PeayOVC0.230.0622.2230.99-0.13-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0637.5038.60-0.08-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0675.0071.730.160.02
La SalleA100.310.0650.0049.960.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.500.0610.0020.91-0.40-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
DuquesneA100.250.0528.5731.23-0.11-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6772.340.000.02
Kansas St.B120.230.0560.0037.220.05-0.01
TulaneAmer0.230.0587.5054.790.170.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0575.0067.580.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4361.370.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0542.8638.11-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.980.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0511.1121.08-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0510.0018.61-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1464.620.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0570.0058.600.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0555.5654.360.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0544.4436.35-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.250.0528.5747.24-0.11-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.40-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0562.5059.510.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0590.9167.660.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0032.620.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.190.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0039.44-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.230.0540.0033.79-0.05-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0520.0028.20-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.560.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.110.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.59-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1453.130.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.250.0510.0018.58-0.20-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.67-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0525.0034.77-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0570.0052.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0544.4431.58-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0537.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0021.58-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.0078.050.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3331.58-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.260.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0046.150.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0566.6772.670.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8637.65-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3339.22-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7876.240.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0580.0070.960.000.02
YaleIvy0.250.0572.7367.180.110.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0544.4456.91-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0510.0027.42-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.940.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
DrakeMVC0.310.0320.0019.99-0.19-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3338.99-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.310.0377.7871.110.170.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
ColoradoP120.310.0366.6758.240.100.00
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.0355.5640.500.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0320.0038.24-0.15-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.0355.5656.400.030.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0052.800.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.250.0337.5031.95-0.06-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.89-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.230.0360.0065.400.050.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
BaylorB120.230.0390.0073.870.180.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.680.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.29-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.08-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.17-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.88-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.230.0333.3332.85-0.08-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0318.1844.62-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.250.0388.8969.390.190.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2930.74-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.230.0366.6758.060.080.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.830.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.410.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0311.1144.62-0.19-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01