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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:14.2
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:50
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-42.81.01%
25-55.36.70%
24-68.419.26%
23-712.028.08%
22-816.324.80%
21-921.014.32%
20-1027.84.89%
19-1139.00.82%
18-1252.60.10%
17-1358.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH86-59W100%0.0
11-16Louisiana Lafayette (108.6)SBH93-77W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi St. (176.8)SECN79-105W100%0.0
11-20Utah (27.9)P12N66-90W100%0.0
11-22Butler (54.4)BEN85-75W100%0.0
11-27Northeastern (148.7)CAAH77-78L0%0.0
12-1Nebraska (148.3)B10A72-77W100%0.0
12-5Charlotte (237.6)CUSAH88-60W100%0.0
12-8Florida (24.1)SECH66-55W100%0.0
12-19College of Charleston (95.0)CAAH85-63W100%0.0
12-22La Salle (258.0)A10A49-95W100%0.0
12-29Princeton (53.4)IvyH76-64W100%0.0
1-2Syracuse (52.7)ACCH64-51W100%0.0
1-9Florida St. (46.9)ACCH72-59W100%0.0
1-12Virginia (6.1)ACCA66-58L0%0.0
1-16Clemson (100.4)ACCA76-65L0%0.0
1-20Boston College (234.2)ACCA53-67W100%0.0
1-23Wake Forest (126.2)ACCH77-63W100%0.0
1-25Duke (20.7)ACCH80-69W100%0.0
1-30North Carolina St. (116.7)ACCA85-69L0%0.0
2-3Notre Dame (40.3)ACCH79-70W100%0.0
2-7Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCA0-065%4.1
2-9Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCH0-075%7.3
2-14Florida St. (46.9)ACCA0-058%2.3
2-17Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCH0-092%15.0
2-20North Carolina (10.7)ACCA0-034%-4.6
2-22Virginia (6.1)ACCH0-059%2.5
2-27Louisville (15.9)ACCH0-052%0.5
3-2Notre Dame (40.3)ACCA0-053%0.8
3-5Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCA0-078%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.1226.0681.1875.8916.2913.49
Florida St.ACC2.843.9172.7368.031.291.41
Virginia TechACC0.363.8854.1751.630.030.13
VirginiaACC2.693.8881.8278.591.712.22
Notre DameACC2.693.8572.7368.871.221.45
SyracuseACC2.742.3069.5764.661.070.67
North Carolina St.ACC2.692.3047.8347.40-0.12-0.12
ClemsonACC2.692.3059.0958.840.490.41
Wake ForestACC2.742.2945.4542.00-0.25-0.37
Georgia TechACC0.252.2754.5553.400.020.15
LouisvilleACC0.312.2782.6178.710.201.30
Boston CollegeACC2.692.2731.8227.37-0.98-1.03
DukeACC2.792.2777.2772.401.521.02
PittsburghACC0.362.2776.1969.760.190.90
North CarolinaACC0.362.2482.6179.100.231.30
NortheasternCAA2.481.7543.4844.81-0.32-0.18
FloridaSEC2.491.7568.1868.280.900.64
Mississippi St.SEC2.481.7542.8642.05-0.35-0.28
College of CharlestonCAA2.431.7266.6763.180.810.45
CharlotteCUSA2.431.6936.3642.28-0.66-0.26
UtahP122.431.6976.1970.911.270.71
ButlerBE2.381.6772.7369.541.080.65
La SalleA102.381.6721.0521.23-1.38-0.96
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.381.6761.1164.120.530.47
NebraskaB102.381.6756.5253.540.310.12
PrincetonIvy2.381.6776.4777.591.260.92
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.381.6715.0016.09-1.67-1.13
HofstraCAA0.210.2068.1865.290.080.06
William & MaryCAA0.310.2071.4369.840.130.08
AlabamaSEC0.220.2059.0953.030.040.01
ElonCAA0.310.2052.1750.430.010.00
VillanovaBE0.210.1986.9686.370.160.14
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1782.6178.860.120.10
LSUSEC0.260.1765.2260.280.080.03
IndianaB100.200.1679.1774.030.120.08
DrexelCAA0.170.1413.6418.14-0.12-0.09
TowsonCAA0.220.1465.2259.750.070.03
CornellIvy0.050.1442.1140.20-0.01-0.03
DavidsonA100.110.1460.0057.950.020.02
DelawareCAA0.210.1421.7423.31-0.12-0.08
VCUA100.160.1473.9173.910.080.07
IowaB100.150.1481.8280.120.100.08
PurdueB100.150.1479.1776.550.090.07
ArkansasSEC0.160.1452.1755.930.010.02
GeorgetownBE0.200.1454.1752.340.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1461.9056.690.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.210.1447.8346.87-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1482.6179.550.070.08
KentuckySEC0.160.1473.9171.570.080.06
Michigan St.B100.200.1483.3383.010.140.09
NorthwesternB100.050.1366.6763.430.020.04
UMKCWAC0.110.1228.5732.71-0.05-0.04
HarvardIvy0.170.1235.0038.53-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1226.0929.20-0.08-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.100.1269.5768.500.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1276.1973.380.080.05
Stony BrookAE0.170.1180.9582.700.100.07
UCLAP120.110.1156.5253.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.170.1163.6459.810.050.02
CaliforniaP120.160.1165.2262.900.050.03
DePaulBE0.160.1134.7834.45-0.05-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1122.7327.18-0.08-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1186.3679.150.080.06
RutgersB100.200.1121.7420.35-0.11-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1156.5260.000.010.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1165.2259.020.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1115.0027.27-0.07-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1178.2678.040.090.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1129.1733.14-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.120.0938.8938.51-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.130.0938.8937.66-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0982.6181.140.070.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.0933.3334.94-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0940.0039.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.0933.3334.19-0.04-0.03
YaleIvy0.120.0973.6874.620.060.04
MassachusettsA100.110.0940.9139.32-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.120.0934.7836.50-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.110.0955.0052.290.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.170.0956.5256.620.020.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0931.5831.96-0.02-0.03
BucknellPat0.170.0954.5558.150.020.01
DuquesneA100.060.0963.6456.370.020.01
George MasonA100.050.0934.7834.21-0.02-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0978.2674.360.030.04
MarylandB100.120.0887.5083.690.090.06
RichmondA100.160.0854.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.160.0833.3331.30-0.05-0.03
XavierBE0.100.0891.3084.380.090.06
CreightonBE0.100.0862.5059.780.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0850.0049.850.00-0.00
LehighPat0.100.0833.3337.25-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0845.4551.34-0.010.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0858.3354.170.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.160.0875.0070.940.080.03
St. John'sBE0.150.0826.0923.73-0.07-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.0845.4554.10-0.010.01
WashingtonP120.110.0865.2261.080.030.02
IllinoisB100.100.0847.8344.55-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.0831.8232.67-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0828.5731.90-0.04-0.03
VMISC0.050.0815.7917.42-0.04-0.05
MissouriSEC0.100.0834.7830.36-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0833.3332.33-0.02-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0840.9145.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0820.8323.63-0.03-0.04
MichiganB100.150.0869.5766.200.060.03
Penn St.B100.050.0850.0046.740.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0882.6179.430.030.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0845.4546.29-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0666.6767.680.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0665.2268.610.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0647.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.4886.860.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0631.5831.01-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0631.5831.77-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0657.8956.090.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.0642.8646.34-0.02-0.00
TroySB0.060.0623.8126.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0666.6770.540.020.03
LafayettePat0.130.0622.7324.04-0.07-0.03
RiderMAAC0.130.0641.6743.53-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0645.0046.14-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0647.8350.14-0.000.00
DaytonA100.120.0686.3682.350.090.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0665.2267.130.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.0645.0046.77-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0652.1751.930.000.00
LipscombASun0.120.0625.0029.27-0.06-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.37-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0671.4368.720.050.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0660.0060.080.020.01
CampbellBSth0.110.0628.5729.64-0.05-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0645.4542.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0647.6252.06-0.010.00
NavyPat0.110.0662.5062.440.030.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0638.1033.40-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0670.0069.100.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0669.5765.300.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0639.1337.74-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0620.0026.76-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0614.2917.91-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0625.0033.22-0.05-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0661.9059.420.010.01
OregonP120.050.0681.8278.150.030.03
Oregon St.P120.110.0661.9056.430.030.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0673.9169.840.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0615.0015.36-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.110.0650.0046.610.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.0659.0953.130.020.00
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3632.01-0.01-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0679.1780.780.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0554.1751.650.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0540.9136.61-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0570.8370.930.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.059.5213.53-0.08-0.04
IUPUISum0.100.0540.0039.79-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0526.0927.82-0.05-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.6413.63-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.100.0554.1757.520.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0530.0035.78-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0545.4546.10-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0515.7920.03-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0573.9170.070.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0525.0024.37-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0550.0051.170.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3332.99-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0556.5262.780.010.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0051.290.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0528.5729.71-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0539.1341.32-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0560.8755.860.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0372.7368.020.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0363.6462.150.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0350.0051.910.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0357.1459.450.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.25-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.49-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0356.5257.280.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0338.1041.91-0.02-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0321.0527.81-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0363.6459.380.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0330.4335.11-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0350.0052.340.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0379.1778.310.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.580.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.500.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.570.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0335.0035.99-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.020.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.060.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.50-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.81-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.38-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.54-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.450.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0359.0959.440.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0336.8441.46-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0352.1753.070.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0354.5556.010.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0326.0926.50-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.470.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.8758.450.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0321.7423.40-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0334.7834.00-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.14-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.72-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.160.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0354.1755.090.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.11-0.04-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6767.270.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.12-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.000.0369.5762.640.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.610.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01