live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:28.3
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:47
Current Record:13-4
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-45.20.08%
25-57.30.54%
24-69.83.14%
23-713.68.83%
22-818.418.48%
21-924.524.16%
20-1032.122.45%
19-1140.913.94%
18-1249.96.04%
17-1360.21.89%
16-1472.20.38%
15-1588.60.05%
14-16104.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Gardner Webb (214.6)BSthH77-45W100%0.0
11-12Navy (220.8)PatH89-55W100%0.0
11-16Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH90-59W100%0.0
11-22La Salle (181.9)A10N46-57W100%0.0
11-25North Florida (243.4)ASunH86-65W100%0.0
11-29Minnesota (98.6)B10A81-86W100%0.0
12-2Princeton (141.3)IvyN80-52W100%0.0
12-5Boston University (202.6)PatH69-54W100%0.0
12-16George Washington (201.7)A10A50-59W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (162.9)BWA57-75W100%0.0
12-23New Mexico St. (43.2)WACN54-63L0%0.0
12-25Middle Tennessee (32.9)CUSAN84-81W100%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCA53-67W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA64-54L0%0.0
1-7Florida St. (40.6)ACCH80-74W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (14.2)ACCA72-63L0%0.0
1-15Duke (3.1)ACCH75-83L0%0.0
1-21North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCA0-058%2.4
1-24Louisville (24.8)ACCH0-060%2.8
1-27Florida St. (40.6)ACCA0-036%-3.9
1-31Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCH0-095%18.3
2-3Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA0-048%-0.7
2-7Wake Forest (129.1)ACCH0-082%10.3
2-10Boston College (97.8)ACCA0-065%4.4
2-13Virginia (4.4)ACCH0-041%-2.6
2-17Syracuse (43.7)ACCH0-071%6.1
2-19Notre Dame (57.5)ACCA0-037%-3.7
2-24Boston College (97.8)ACCH0-083%10.8
2-27North Carolina (5.3)ACCA0-024%-7.8
3-3Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCH0-070%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.3326.0577.2269.4114.3310.11
Boston CollegeACC0.313.9168.4257.080.110.55
Florida St.ACC3.093.9077.7872.301.721.74
PittsburghACC3.253.8842.1132.83-0.51-1.33
Virginia TechACC0.153.8568.4258.920.060.69
LouisvilleACC0.232.3277.7870.330.130.94
SyracuseACC0.152.2968.4262.340.060.57
DukeACC3.172.2988.8984.702.461.59
Georgia TechACC3.092.2750.0041.220.00-0.40
ClemsonACC2.942.2683.3372.281.961.01
Notre DameACC0.232.2663.1660.980.060.50
VirginiaACC0.082.2694.4486.350.071.64
North Carolina St.ACC0.232.2468.4258.310.090.37
North CarolinaACC0.232.2480.0075.020.141.12
Wake ForestACC0.082.2444.4441.96-0.01-0.36
NavyPat3.101.7863.1657.070.810.25
George WashingtonA103.111.7847.3744.94-0.16-0.18
PrincetonIvy3.191.7556.2562.510.400.44
La SalleA102.941.7542.1144.15-0.46-0.20
Florida A&MMEAC3.101.7210.5320.28-2.44-1.02
Boston UniversityPat3.011.7252.9455.130.180.18
HawaiiBW3.031.7073.3366.421.410.56
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.031.7076.4777.371.600.93
North FloridaASun3.011.6933.3336.46-1.00-0.46
Gardner WebbBSth2.941.6743.7545.02-0.37-0.17
MinnesotaB102.941.6766.6759.560.980.32
New Mexico St.WAC2.941.6782.3583.631.901.12
LehighPat0.320.2338.8944.75-0.07-0.02
DavidsonA100.250.2058.8261.440.040.05
ColgatePat0.160.2050.0051.040.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.230.1722.2228.67-0.13-0.07
FloridaSEC0.400.1773.6871.550.190.07
BucknellPat0.160.1761.9068.010.040.06
FordhamA100.220.1631.5829.06-0.08-0.07
RichmondA100.150.1631.5834.35-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.160.1422.2227.51-0.09-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.1457.8966.250.040.05
HarvardIvy0.220.1437.5046.63-0.06-0.01
ArmyPat0.160.1461.1160.530.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.1420.0028.72-0.05-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.230.1426.3230.43-0.11-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1420.0032.26-0.10-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.1421.4326.210.00-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.090.1429.4127.74-0.04-0.06
Michigan St.B100.150.1485.0083.180.110.09
VCUA100.220.1460.0059.690.040.03
IndianaB100.140.1457.8950.680.020.00
DuquesneA100.220.1370.0058.100.090.02
Penn St.B100.210.1361.9055.770.050.02
Saint LouisA100.070.1347.3746.91-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.1266.6766.010.080.04
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1233.3333.80-0.05-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.230.1211.1117.96-0.18-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1270.0071.230.060.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1270.5969.610.070.05
AmericanPat0.160.1226.3228.14-0.07-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1216.6724.91-0.10-0.06
PennIvy0.230.1164.7162.780.070.03
High PointBSth0.160.1140.0047.86-0.03-0.00
RadfordBSth0.090.1161.1160.790.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1141.1838.46-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.240.1110.5327.31-0.19-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1142.1144.97-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.160.1120.0041.76-0.10-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.1150.0052.440.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1150.0051.650.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1168.4254.090.060.01
The CitadelSC0.080.1118.7518.40-0.05-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.1129.4139.62-0.09-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.1155.5656.710.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.150.1183.3381.410.100.07
TennesseeSEC0.080.1172.2268.920.030.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.110.009.15-0.15-0.09
George MasonA100.070.1145.0041.35-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.000.1147.6244.030.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1150.0046.780.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.1166.6759.780.020.02
NorthwesternB100.220.1155.0050.370.020.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1127.7831.670.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0930.0039.93-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.180.0923.5328.21-0.09-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.160.0933.3334.11-0.05-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.090.003.12-0.08-0.08
USCP120.250.0971.4368.300.110.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0921.0524.710.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0945.0045.02-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0952.9457.320.010.01
LipscombASun0.150.0952.9459.360.010.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0950.0055.650.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.160.0945.0041.34-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0933.3333.36-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0941.1847.51-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.150.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.150.0861.1158.750.030.01
MaineAE0.080.0810.5314.86-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.150.0870.0065.320.060.03
MichiganB100.080.0875.0070.270.040.03
WoffordSC0.150.0868.7563.620.060.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
RutgersB100.140.0857.8947.140.02-0.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0863.1657.900.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0868.7567.640.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.089.5217.94-0.18-0.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0884.2178.170.050.05
BryantNEC0.070.089.5217.08-0.06-0.05
Ohio St.B100.140.0880.9576.520.090.04
TempleAmer0.220.0852.6351.730.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0838.8935.35-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0873.6867.950.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0815.7920.920.00-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0870.0060.460.030.02
PurdueB100.070.0890.4888.380.050.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.0866.6768.700.000.03
TowsonCAA0.150.0863.1666.000.040.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0656.2556.810.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0617.6519.33-0.06-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0640.0043.34-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.0645.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.0621.0539.47-0.10-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0658.8262.450.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0617.6523.890.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0657.8954.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0643.7545.34-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0617.6517.23-0.06-0.04
NJITASun0.080.0638.8942.60-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.920.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0646.6758.78-0.010.01
AuburnSEC0.170.0689.4777.030.130.03
FIUCUSA0.160.0635.2935.57-0.05-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.160.020.00
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0627.7840.88-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.640.030.02
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0668.4270.810.030.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0670.0068.050.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.160.0652.6351.090.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.0672.2258.940.070.01
New HampshireAE0.160.0629.4138.15-0.06-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.160.0668.4269.240.060.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0623.5325.630.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.0637.5037.68-0.04-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.160.0670.5975.930.060.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0647.3743.04-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0555.0049.070.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0527.7834.500.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0521.0544.26-0.04-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0550.0046.260.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0568.4264.200.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0552.3848.520.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0547.3750.950.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0521.0525.980.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0552.6346.880.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.055.8819.370.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0528.5731.27-0.03-0.02
MercerSC0.150.0544.4454.89-0.020.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0570.5973.140.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0523.5328.700.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0547.0652.510.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0530.0033.490.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.0527.7840.97-0.07-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0552.9459.250.000.01
TexasB120.150.0563.1657.620.040.01
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.810.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0061.440.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0330.0036.48-0.04-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0385.7182.070.070.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0329.4134.76-0.04-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0390.4888.940.070.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0363.1657.540.020.00
TroySB0.090.0335.2942.76-0.03-0.00
UtahP120.090.0361.1158.950.020.01
AkronMAC0.090.0347.0644.91-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.090.0366.6763.070.030.01
BYUWCC0.090.0380.9576.230.050.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0338.8944.14-0.02-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0323.5332.62-0.05-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0363.1663.180.020.01
UCFAmer0.090.0368.4260.880.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0329.4130.67-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.040.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.690.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4445.980.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.130.00-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1134.320.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.360.000.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.350.050.02
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0331.5830.000.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0361.1151.900.020.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.040.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.360.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.990.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.980.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.900.000.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.500.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0366.6755.930.030.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0363.1666.880.000.01
KansasB120.000.0384.2179.740.000.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.490.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0325.0028.020.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.220.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0361.9065.160.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0327.7827.300.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0358.8263.210.010.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.370.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0357.1460.400.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0344.4448.91-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0067.890.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0330.0031.690.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.360.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0352.6350.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.180.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.690.000.01
UCLAP120.080.0365.0062.040.020.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.280.030.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.070.02
VMISC0.000.0325.0024.170.00-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02