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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:144.1
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:55
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1376.30.06%
17-1491.50.51%
16-15105.84.08%
15-16122.115.47%
14-17138.130.29%
13-18152.631.98%
12-19166.314.62%
11-20180.32.98%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VMI (331.2)SCH62-50W100%0.0
11-17DePaul (165.2)BEH68-62W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (101.8)A10A78-52L0%0.0
11-24Radford (161.5)BSthH74-86L0%0.0
11-28Bucknell (175.1)PatH62-58W100%0.0
12-2Boston College (231.0)ACCA58-67W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Michigan (142.1)MACH81-70W100%0.0
12-8George Washington (52.7)A10A76-66L0%0.0
12-10Canisius (224.8)MAACH81-67W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Monroe (183.2)SBH54-50W100%0.0
12-19Drexel (264.0)CAAA57-63W100%0.0
12-22Colorado (40.5)P12N71-70L0%0.0
12-23Kent St. (105.8)MACN75-69W100%0.0
12-30Maryland (8.2)B10A70-64L0%0.0
1-2Michigan (41.1)B10A79-56L0%0.0
1-5Minnesota (237.8)B10H86-77W100%0.0
1-10Michigan St. (19.2)B10H65-92L0%0.0
1-13Purdue (14.4)B10A74-57L0%0.0
1-16Northwestern (115.6)B10A62-71W100%0.0
1-21Wisconsin (61.5)B10H60-66L0%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (97.6)B10A66-46L0%0.0
1-30Michigan (41.1)B10H72-79L0%0.0
2-3Iowa (7.4)B10A73-49L0%0.0
2-6Indiana (31.6)B10H0-014%-12.0
2-13Nebraska (148.4)B10A0-020%-9.2
2-17Iowa (7.4)B10H0-011%-13.4
2-20Rutgers (278.5)B10A0-069%5.4
2-25Nebraska (148.4)B10H0-041%-2.6
2-28Michigan St. (19.2)B10A0-03%-21.1
3-3Northwestern (115.6)B10H0-039%-3.1
3-6Illinois (158.4)B10H0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.2526.1046.5340.95-1.82-4.73
Michigan St.B102.573.8481.8280.191.642.32
NorthwesternB102.603.8169.5765.751.021.20
IowaB102.553.8080.9578.861.582.20
MichiganB104.543.7870.0065.691.821.19
NebraskaB100.383.7852.1750.310.020.02
Ohio St.B102.522.2856.5252.590.330.12
PurdueB102.512.2781.8277.511.601.25
MinnesotaB102.562.2727.2728.77-1.16-0.97
RutgersB100.432.2722.7320.33-0.24-1.35
IndianaB100.382.2582.6177.060.251.22
MarylandB102.602.2486.3681.141.891.40
WisconsinB102.412.2259.0954.430.440.20
IllinoisB100.382.1947.8344.56-0.02-0.24
Kent St.MAC2.331.7370.0063.810.930.48
George WashingtonA102.281.7276.1970.721.190.71
Eastern MichiganMAC2.271.7241.1844.89-0.40-0.18
Louisiana MonroeSB2.321.6942.1146.56-0.37-0.12
DePaulBE2.271.6938.1036.16-0.54-0.47
CanisiusMAAC2.281.6743.4845.31-0.30-0.16
Boston CollegeACC2.221.6633.3327.50-0.74-0.75
DuquesneA102.221.6665.0057.340.670.24
VMISC2.221.6417.6519.76-1.44-0.99
BucknellPat2.171.6155.0058.870.220.29
ColoradoP122.171.6171.4365.830.930.51
DrexelCAA2.171.6115.0019.32-1.52-0.99
RadfordBSth2.171.6150.0051.900.000.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.1742.8647.27-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.1660.8759.050.010.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1668.1863.720.050.04
ProvidenceBE0.150.1678.2671.960.080.07
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1435.0036.57-0.05-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.160.1457.1457.510.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.160.1452.1747.250.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.200.1466.6767.290.070.05
GeorgetownBE0.250.1456.5253.460.030.01
VCUA100.150.1377.2776.780.080.07
DaytonA100.150.1385.7181.220.110.08
MarquetteBE0.150.1365.2256.530.040.02
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1352.1752.980.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.134.557.91-0.13-0.11
Rhode IslandA100.100.1354.5555.990.010.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1317.3921.76-0.06-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.140.1386.3680.660.100.08
SamfordSC0.060.1240.9143.37-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1185.7184.560.080.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1166.6760.120.040.02
ButlerBE0.210.1168.1866.490.080.04
ElonCAA0.150.1154.5553.020.010.01
LehighPat0.140.1130.0036.08-0.06-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.100.1131.8234.36-0.04-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.1147.8348.69-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1152.1749.340.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.110.1181.8277.490.070.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1179.1780.770.080.07
Wake ForestACC0.050.1145.4542.14-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.200.1190.4885.550.160.08
XavierBE0.200.1190.9184.430.160.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.114.7614.01-0.09-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1172.7372.440.090.05
Florida St.ACC0.150.1168.1863.250.050.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1172.7368.840.040.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1172.7368.630.040.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1127.2724.41-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.1131.8233.75-0.07-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.1163.6462.340.010.03
DavidsonA100.100.1157.8955.400.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1110.0014.87-0.08-0.07
PittsburghACC0.200.1180.0070.290.120.04
VillanovaBE0.000.1186.3685.330.000.07
St. BonaventureA100.100.1170.0069.070.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.090.1033.3332.88-0.03-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.1021.7424.60-0.03-0.05
MercerSC0.110.0971.4370.600.050.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0925.0029.91-0.03-0.04
CampbellBSth0.110.0930.0030.38-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.110.0965.2265.230.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.0961.9058.190.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0950.0050.510.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0957.1457.560.000.01
High PointBSth0.100.0957.8961.480.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.160.0969.5768.670.060.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0963.6465.480.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.0975.0071.280.080.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.0859.0959.470.030.02
AkronMAC0.060.0881.8279.750.040.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0855.0048.870.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0815.7922.51-0.08-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.0828.5728.88-0.05-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.0860.0057.960.020.01
ArmyPat0.150.0854.5556.020.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.100.0852.1754.400.000.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0822.7323.64-0.03-0.04
HofstraCAA0.150.0868.1865.420.050.03
LafayettePat0.100.0823.8125.26-0.05-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0890.0086.120.080.06
OaklandHorz0.110.0866.6767.310.040.03
HowardMEAC0.100.0840.0042.53-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.100.0821.0520.91-0.06-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.0841.6746.85-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0881.8277.440.030.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0865.0068.750.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0865.0064.310.030.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0859.0959.680.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0845.0043.19-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0822.7324.85-0.05-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.150.0847.6249.35-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.150.0852.6347.690.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.100.0830.0034.84-0.04-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.0861.9062.050.030.02
Saint LouisA100.150.0838.1033.38-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0827.7829.23-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.100.0857.8954.300.020.01
George MasonA100.100.0836.3635.33-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.100.0819.0521.40-0.06-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0827.2732.84-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0829.4138.47-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0852.3853.680.000.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0841.6743.51-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0873.9173.090.020.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0868.1867.800.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0880.9575.640.030.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0836.3630.98-0.01-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0838.1041.92-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.100.0866.6762.710.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.140.0881.8276.020.090.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.0657.1457.930.020.01
FurmanSC0.120.0654.5553.780.010.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0635.0031.39-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0630.0033.57-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0638.1043.35-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0626.3227.34-0.05-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.0631.8232.71-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.8957.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0642.8643.53-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0661.9059.930.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9139.70-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0631.8232.92-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0619.0522.35-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.0663.6457.330.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0670.0069.360.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.370.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0668.1869.350.020.02
VermontAE0.110.0656.5258.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.100.0670.5974.500.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0625.0029.52-0.05-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0685.7176.030.070.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0627.2730.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0636.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.300.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0657.8961.920.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0635.0034.93-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0641.1840.28-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0620.0023.76-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.0560.0061.350.020.01
BryantNEC0.100.0526.0927.58-0.05-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0563.6461.810.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0536.3642.19-0.03-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0522.7323.37-0.05-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0555.5650.840.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0530.0032.46-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.100.0581.8278.210.060.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0054.590.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0566.6765.410.020.02
TexasB120.100.0568.1861.780.040.01
UtahP120.050.0572.7368.550.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.190.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.1033.45-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.1979.640.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0542.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.6413.80-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0554.5552.750.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.055.267.22-0.04-0.05
MassachusettsA100.050.0542.8639.84-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0510.0015.28-0.08-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0526.0930.33-0.05-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0547.6252.96-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0539.1339.48-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0561.9058.420.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0533.3333.55-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0522.7326.19-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.030.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0572.7369.920.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0523.8128.31-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0580.9577.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0525.0025.48-0.02-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0538.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.8235.16-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0518.1822.83-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0510.5325.37-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0335.2934.69-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.09-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.02
ArizonaP120.000.0378.2677.230.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0352.1750.240.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0342.8637.19-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0316.6724.27-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0352.3853.820.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0352.1754.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.100.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0337.5036.54-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0376.1976.220.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0375.0073.480.030.01
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.350.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.130.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0347.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0333.3334.18-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0334.7837.55-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0333.3332.01-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0338.1042.99-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.71-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0353.3355.180.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0373.9170.210.000.01
IUPUISum0.050.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0322.7324.28-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.220.020.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0318.7533.17-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0359.0958.550.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0352.3854.240.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0352.6351.510.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.94-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0361.9060.410.000.01
OklahomaB120.050.0390.4884.890.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.950.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.11-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0334.7841.59-0.02-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.020.01
UABCUSA0.000.0381.8278.320.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.670.020.01
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0352.3857.440.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
YaleIvy0.000.0372.2273.760.000.01