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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:114.6
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:137
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-949.10.07%
21-1058.50.71%
20-1170.14.61%
19-1284.313.95%
18-13100.624.43%
17-14118.927.45%
16-15138.118.76%
15-16156.88.01%
14-17174.01.86%
13-18190.40.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Campbell (266.4)BSthH86-75W100%0.0
11-12Fairleigh Dickinson (280.5)NECH81-57W100%0.0
11-15Montana (98.3)BSkyH70-57W100%0.0
11-17Columbia (278.6)IvyH79-65W100%0.0
11-20Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCN54-85W100%0.0
11-21Texas A&M (29.6)SECN87-98L0%0.0
11-24Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH86-48W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCA85-78L0%0.0
12-2Iowa (156.8)B10A73-77W100%0.0
12-4Wisconsin (128.8)B10H63-64L0%0.0
12-9George Washington (200.4)A10H74-54W100%0.0
12-17George Mason (224.7)A10A54-72W100%0.0
12-19Binghamton (281.9)AEH80-65W100%0.0
12-22Rider (105.4)MAACH70-71L0%0.0
12-30Coppin St. (342.5)MEACH88-43W100%0.0
1-2Maryland (45.2)B10A75-69L0%0.0
1-5Northwestern (127.8)B10H78-63W100%0.0
1-9Indiana (115.7)B10A74-70L0%0.0
1-12Nebraska (100.5)B10H76-74W100%0.0
1-15Minnesota (98.1)B10H84-95L0%0.0
1-20Northwestern (127.8)B10A70-61L0%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (21.1)B10A0-024%-8.0
1-27Rutgers (187.9)B10H0-079%9.1
1-31Michigan St. (21.5)B10A0-010%-14.3
2-3Iowa (156.8)B10H0-071%6.1
2-7Maryland (45.2)B10H0-050%-0.1
2-11Illinois (161.2)B10A0-049%-0.1
2-15Ohio St. (21.1)B10H0-044%-1.6
2-18Purdue (6.5)B10A0-07%-16.3
2-21Michigan (37.6)B10H0-045%-1.3
2-25Nebraska (100.5)B10A0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.4226.1056.3251.473.340.77
MarylandB102.563.8168.4264.550.941.11
Ohio St.B100.353.7880.9577.250.222.06
IowaB102.503.7850.0046.060.00-0.30
NorthwesternB104.943.7855.5650.350.550.03
NebraskaB102.613.7570.0062.161.050.91
MinnesotaB102.742.3061.9056.220.650.29
RutgersB100.302.3055.0047.590.03-0.11
MichiganB100.242.3076.1971.300.120.98
WisconsinB102.502.2547.3744.51-0.13-0.25
IndianaB102.672.2455.5649.010.30-0.04
Michigan St.B100.182.2285.0082.970.131.47
PurdueB100.412.2290.4888.220.331.70
IllinoisB100.412.2247.3744.06-0.02-0.26
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.441.6925.0033.82-1.22-0.55
George MasonA102.501.6947.3742.68-0.13-0.25
George WashingtonA102.501.6947.3744.93-0.13-0.17
MontanaBSky2.501.6775.0075.861.250.86
Oral RobertsSum2.511.6731.5833.77-0.92-0.54
PittsburghACC2.451.6742.1131.90-0.39-0.60
Coppin St.MEAC2.381.6410.0018.50-1.90-1.03
BinghamtonAE2.441.6444.4441.36-0.27-0.28
North Carolina St.ACC2.381.6463.1654.880.630.16
RiderMAAC2.441.6463.1664.120.640.46
CampbellBSth2.381.6150.0049.230.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy2.381.6121.4333.54-1.36-0.53
Texas A&MSEC2.381.6166.6762.760.790.41
Stony BrookAE0.200.1936.8445.21-0.05-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1880.0075.060.000.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1657.1460.410.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.240.160.003.07-0.24-0.15
LouisvilleACC0.180.1678.9569.790.110.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.1430.0033.47-0.10-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.1442.1146.09-0.04-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1437.5033.78-0.03-0.04
UMBCAE0.120.1455.5655.540.010.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1465.0054.670.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.130.009.09-0.18-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.240.1329.4139.63-0.10-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.1366.6763.070.020.03
Georgia TechACC0.240.1352.6343.110.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.180.1320.0041.73-0.11-0.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1368.4261.230.040.03
DukeACC0.240.1389.4785.210.190.09
Notre DameACC0.120.1363.1661.020.030.03
VCUA100.060.1360.0059.700.010.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1384.2173.240.080.06
Miami FLACC0.230.1377.7870.480.130.05
PrincetonIvy0.210.1252.9460.220.010.02
LongwoodBSth0.150.1216.6716.16-0.10-0.08
BrownIvy0.120.1250.0045.140.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1137.5046.69-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1138.8940.78-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.119.5217.12-0.05-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.1152.3848.530.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1142.1144.96-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.1157.8958.850.010.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1172.2272.980.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.130.1129.4134.76-0.05-0.03
HartfordAE0.120.1150.0045.930.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.1168.4264.200.040.03
DePaulBE0.120.1142.1134.31-0.02-0.03
CreightonBE0.180.1175.0070.700.090.04
La SalleA100.120.1140.0042.69-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.120.1121.0522.02-0.07-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.060.1166.6768.730.020.04
Wake ForestACC0.060.1042.1140.46-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.1073.6869.640.030.04
DuquesneA100.180.1070.0058.090.070.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1050.0046.810.00-0.01
RichmondA100.060.1031.5834.36-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1027.7831.71-0.05-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1068.4257.740.040.02
CornellIvy0.140.0933.3333.23-0.05-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0941.1847.56-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.0940.0042.52-0.04-0.01
AlbanyAE0.140.0971.4370.240.060.04
MaineAE0.140.0910.5314.83-0.11-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.120.0952.6351.690.010.00
WagnerNEC0.130.0964.7164.570.040.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0925.0031.45-0.06-0.03
High PointBSth0.130.0943.7549.23-0.02-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0927.7827.10-0.06-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.130.0950.0047.660.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0835.0031.83-0.04-0.03
Seton HallBE0.130.0875.0067.890.070.03
IonaMAAC0.130.0860.0064.110.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
NavyPat0.200.0860.0055.160.040.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0842.1132.47-0.02-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.0817.6519.30-0.12-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.180.0868.4254.090.070.01
Saint LouisA100.130.0847.3746.92-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.130.0833.3336.93-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0818.7518.36-0.04-0.05
New HampshireAE0.120.0833.3340.08-0.04-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.120.0833.3333.87-0.04-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.180.0822.2228.66-0.10-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0855.0050.370.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.0870.5969.630.080.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0838.8944.08-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0815.7920.91-0.04-0.05
OhioMAC0.120.0847.0648.41-0.01-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.120.0847.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0820.0023.34-0.03-0.04
FordhamA100.000.0831.5829.060.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.120.0810.5327.29-0.10-0.04
LSUSEC0.060.0861.1153.170.010.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0866.6763.200.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0843.7554.11-0.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0827.7840.97-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.180.0885.7180.080.130.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.0868.4258.980.040.01
ArizonaP120.120.0880.0078.940.070.05
DavidsonA100.120.0858.8261.450.020.02
DrakeMVC0.110.0855.0048.980.01-0.00
KansasB120.060.0884.2179.750.040.05
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0840.0043.35-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0850.0051.640.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.0827.7834.50-0.05-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.120.0872.2268.930.050.03
VirginiaACC0.120.0894.7486.140.110.06
West VirginiaB120.180.0884.2178.170.120.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0864.7159.990.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
PennIvy0.080.0664.7162.720.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0054.190.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0625.0028.01-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.6872.380.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0652.9459.250.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0652.6358.590.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0650.0059.450.000.01
ArmyPat0.140.0661.1160.440.030.01
ColgatePat0.140.0650.0051.030.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.29-0.05-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0658.8263.210.010.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0616.6724.45-0.05-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0673.6865.260.030.02
Kansas St.B120.120.0673.6862.720.060.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0661.9065.160.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.120.0610.5318.34-0.10-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.120.0611.1118.00-0.10-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.130.0630.0039.93-0.05-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0617.6523.86-0.05-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.850.000.03
BucknellPat0.060.0561.9068.020.010.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0561.9063.140.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0550.0050.860.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0527.7841.030.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.120.0577.7867.910.070.02
Texas TechB120.120.0578.9571.810.070.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0510.5316.75-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0533.3333.77-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.110.0557.1453.050.020.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0531.5835.150.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.0570.0060.470.050.01
UCLAP120.060.0565.0062.050.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0516.6724.26-0.04-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0533.3337.230.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0589.4777.000.050.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.460.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0560.0053.720.010.00
DaytonA100.000.0547.3750.940.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0529.4133.93-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0580.9583.260.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0536.8444.11-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0561.1147.220.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0573.6867.970.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0583.3381.370.040.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0568.4260.550.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0547.0641.410.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0544.4446.65-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0563.1663.220.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0541.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.120.0583.3381.430.080.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.120.0552.6351.740.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0521.0544.260.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0561.1164.130.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0568.4260.860.020.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0541.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0568.4270.810.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.650.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0357.8966.260.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0322.2225.25-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0370.0068.300.020.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0355.0053.320.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.050.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.520.020.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0343.7540.930.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.400.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.690.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.970.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.99-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0370.0071.230.000.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0357.8959.490.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0344.4446.02-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.650.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.240.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5729.940.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.470.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.500.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0357.8953.190.010.00
TexasB120.000.0363.1657.630.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.51-0.04-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0361.1156.090.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0372.2274.930.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.040.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0373.6871.560.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0310.0019.63-0.05-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0366.6763.420.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0368.4254.070.020.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.940.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0366.6765.370.020.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.350.00-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.000.0327.7829.830.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0325.0028.24-0.03-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0322.2227.47-0.03-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0338.8944.75-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0352.9459.340.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0352.6355.290.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0318.7536.82-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0355.5656.740.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0366.6773.210.020.01
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.850.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.760.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1665.970.020.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0321.0524.75-0.03-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0368.7567.600.020.01
USCP120.060.0371.4368.280.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.570.00-0.01
VMISC0.060.0325.0024.15-0.03-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0338.8935.37-0.01-0.01