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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:130.4
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:180
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:257



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-721.00.01%
23-828.50.02%
22-936.00.08%
21-1049.60.31%
20-1160.01.18%
19-1273.83.40%
18-1386.77.01%
17-14100.612.27%
16-15114.917.00%
15-16130.118.34%
14-17144.616.58%
13-18160.511.72%
12-19176.57.34%
11-20193.73.41%
10-21212.21.10%
9-22231.20.21%
8-23248.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Morgan St. (282.8)MEACH61-48W100%0.0
11-16Fordham (257.3)A10H73-54W100%0.0
11-20Charlotte (75.0)CUSAN106-97L0%0.0
11-21Cornell (244.8)IvyN71-72W100%0.0
11-23USC (227.7)P12N63-61W100%0.0
11-25Akron (99.4)MACH78-72W100%0.0
11-28Bucknell (232.8)PatA0-066%5.0
12-3Virginia Tech (224.2)ACCH0-076%8.6
12-6Marshall (190.7)CUSAA0-052%0.5
12-10Duquesne (146.7)A10H0-065%4.7
12-14George Washington (70.1)A10H0-040%-2.9
12-20Drexel (223.8)CAAN0-071%6.8
12-22Dartmouth (269.9)IvyH0-087%13.3
12-31Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-03%-21.8
1-3Rutgers (231.6)B10A0-064%4.3
1-6Michigan (41.5)B10H0-031%-6.1
1-13Indiana (90.4)B10A0-023%-9.0
1-17Purdue (48.3)B10H0-031%-6.0
1-21Michigan St. (36.2)B10A0-011%-15.0
1-24Rutgers (231.6)B10H0-083%11.5
1-28Minnesota (89.2)B10H0-043%-2.2
1-31Illinois (53.3)B10A0-016%-11.9
2-4Maryland (43.9)B10A0-014%-12.8
2-7Nebraska (80.9)B10H0-045%-1.6
2-11Ohio St. (33.4)B10A0-010%-15.4
2-14Maryland (43.9)B10H0-032%-5.6
2-18Wisconsin (5.6)B10H0-011%-14.7
2-21Northwestern (171.8)B10A0-051%0.4
2-28Iowa (42.3)B10H0-028%-7.0
3-4Ohio St. (33.4)B10H0-025%-8.2
3-8Minnesota (89.2)B10A0-022%-9.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1030.0426.1179.1744.7617.52-2.74
MarylandB101.393.82100.0071.521.391.65
RutgersB100.003.8250.0024.390.00-1.95
MinnesotaB100.003.7950.0054.370.000.33
WisconsinB100.003.79100.0086.000.002.73
Ohio St.B100.003.76100.0074.210.001.82
IowaB100.002.2966.6765.630.000.72
PurdueB100.002.2983.3368.590.000.85
NebraskaB100.002.2875.0053.230.000.15
IndianaB100.002.2880.0056.440.000.29
MichiganB100.002.2875.0066.510.000.75
NorthwesternB100.002.2483.3339.290.00-0.48
Michigan St.B100.002.2375.0071.410.000.95
IllinoisB100.002.21100.0064.460.000.64
George WashingtonA100.001.7875.0069.630.000.70
FordhamA108.331.720.0026.97-8.33-0.79
CornellIvy8.331.7050.0042.400.00-0.26
DuquesneA100.001.70100.0055.070.000.17
CharlotteCUSA8.331.7050.0066.310.000.55
MarshallCUSA0.001.6950.0044.810.00-0.18
USCP129.171.6760.0029.751.83-0.68
DartmouthIvy0.001.670.0036.98-0.00-0.43
AkronMAC9.031.6775.0068.484.510.62
DrexelCAA1.291.6720.0036.97-0.77-0.43
BucknellPat0.001.6433.3335.89-0.00-0.46
Virginia TechACC0.001.6460.0036.410.00-0.45
Morgan St.MEAC8.331.6420.0041.25-5.00-0.29
LouisvilleACC0.000.19100.0079.150.000.11
Miami FLACC2.500.19100.0079.802.500.11
DavidsonA100.000.1766.6761.870.000.04
UMass LowellAE1.390.1760.0042.120.28-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.1720.0038.01-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1775.0064.180.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1614.2931.08-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1625.0041.79-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1640.0026.51-0.00-0.07
DaytonA100.000.1475.0071.150.000.06
La SalleA100.000.14100.0056.620.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.14100.0060.350.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1460.0039.490.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1475.0052.090.000.01
George MasonA100.600.1420.0021.73-0.36-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1475.0064.980.000.04
ElonCAA1.530.1440.0039.53-0.31-0.03
UMBCAE0.830.140.0027.57-0.83-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0027.64-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1350.0052.150.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1350.0037.010.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1380.0068.140.000.05
ColgatePat0.600.1320.0039.02-0.36-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0073.600.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3366.600.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1175.0046.370.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1166.6773.440.000.05
PennIvy0.000.110.0023.29-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1125.0037.52-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1150.0064.050.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1166.6747.140.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1180.0073.080.000.05
YaleIvy0.000.1180.0070.280.000.05
HowardMEAC0.000.1125.0045.71-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1125.0039.50-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1180.0046.930.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1125.0048.57-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.11100.0083.600.000.07
UABCUSA0.000.1125.0040.45-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1180.0070.250.000.04
South CarolinaSEC2.260.1150.0051.520.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1166.6751.600.000.00
OregonP120.000.1160.0063.060.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1180.0074.520.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.1116.6745.77-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1125.0036.44-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1125.0034.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0027.68-0.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.690.10100.0077.900.690.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1075.0067.420.000.04
NJITind0.000.0920.0029.79-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.690.0880.0057.990.420.01
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0058.520.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0053.46-0.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0833.3361.50-0.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0031.85-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0820.0022.02-0.00-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0866.6750.870.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0060.100.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0833.3345.71-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0825.0046.16-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0052.420.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0850.0047.220.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0850.0042.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.080.0038.94-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.600.0840.0031.26-0.12-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0820.0029.93-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0866.6751.430.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0820.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0064.150.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0077.100.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0840.0038.71-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0860.0057.880.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0866.6749.610.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0840.0033.60-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0866.6759.500.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.08100.0069.410.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0840.0060.24-0.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0833.3359.02-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0875.0038.820.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.220.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0816.6726.44-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0833.3330.44-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0860.0050.770.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.08100.0053.810.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0866.6753.510.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.110.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0066.35-0.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0049.260.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0062.480.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0840.0052.52-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.74-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0066.690.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.71-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.61-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0650.0065.840.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0680.0062.960.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.83-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.520.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.26-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.34-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.95-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.41-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0048.44-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0566.6762.950.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0516.6731.72-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0046.840.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.050.0034.83-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.69-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0580.0071.830.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0525.0046.64-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0065.300.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0040.80-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.050.0028.78-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.05100.0072.490.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0533.3329.25-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.05100.0069.720.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.05100.0061.670.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0533.3339.40-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.05100.0066.080.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0575.0066.110.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0560.0060.080.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0520.0042.40-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0525.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0550.0042.760.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0051.96-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0580.0070.970.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0580.0063.410.000.01
UtahP120.000.0575.0073.450.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.05100.0054.940.000.01
LibertyBSth0.690.0520.0029.02-0.42-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0036.41-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0047.310.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0550.0027.510.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0071.480.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.050.0034.56-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.050.0030.79-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0061.350.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0575.0055.980.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0015.65-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0065.430.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0061.400.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0566.6751.210.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.050.0045.08-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0533.3353.30-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0566.6756.860.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.25-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0061.080.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.970.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.800.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4357.180.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.380.000.02
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.27-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0320.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0022.97-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.600.0350.0052.730.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.12-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6726.420.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0058.400.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0040.810.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.690.0325.0033.19-0.35-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3338.74-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.41-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.010.000.00
HoustonAmer0.690.0366.6760.360.230.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3330.11-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.330.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0033.15-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.66-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.690.03100.0056.970.690.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.830.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.0350.0036.120.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.52-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0024.69-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.090.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.210.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3329.54-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.51-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.69-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.900.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0057.50-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.630.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.41-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.570.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.89-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.270.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0052.61-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.63-0.00-0.01