Penn St.

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	161.0
Current RPI:	161
Expected SOS:	34
Current SOS:	34
Current Record:	12-20
Expected Record:	12-20
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	137
Expected OOC SOS:	179

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-20	161.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Hartford (307.0)	AE	H	70-55	W	100%
11-14	Radford (329.0)	BSth	H	62-46	W	100%
11-16	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	H	77-68	W	100%
11-19	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	N	85-47	L	0%
11-20	South Florida (52.0)	BE	N	53-49	W	100%
11-23	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	H	82-71	W	100%
11-26	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	A	65-47	L	0%
11-30	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	A	54-62	W	100%
12-4	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	H	70-72	L	0%
12-7	Lafayette (195.0)	Pat	H	57-61	L	0%
12-10	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	66-59	L	0%
12-18	Mount St. Mary's (292.0)	NEC	H	72-43	W	100%
12-21	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	74-67	W	100%
12-29	Michigan (14.0)	B10	A	71-53	L	0%
1-1	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	A	68-56	L	0%
1-5	Purdue (48.0)	B10	H	65-45	W	100%
1-8	Indiana (17.0)	B10	H	82-88	L	0%
1-11	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	A	70-58	L	0%
1-15	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	H	66-80	L	0%
1-19	Illinois (92.0)	B10	H	54-52	W	100%
1-22	Indiana (17.0)	B10	A	73-54	L	0%
1-25	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	78-54	L	0%
1-31	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	H	46-52	L	0%
2-4	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	77-64	L	0%
2-8	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	A	77-57	L	0%
2-11	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	H	67-51	W	100%
2-16	Iowa (130.0)	B10	H	69-64	W	100%
2-19	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	65-55	L	0%
2-25	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	H	66-67	L	0%
2-29	Purdue (48.0)	B10	A	80-56	L	0%
3-4	Michigan (14.0)	B10	H	65-71	L	0%
3-8	Indiana (17.0)	B10	N	75-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Penn St.	B10	26.22	26.22	31.34	31.34	-9.78	-9.78
Indiana	B10	5.36	5.36	73.33	73.33	2.50	2.50
Purdue	B10	3.88	3.88	64.52	64.52	1.13	1.13
Iowa	B10	3.88	3.88	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Wisconsin	B10	3.83	3.83	70.97	70.97	1.60	1.60
Michigan	B10	3.82	3.82	70.00	70.00	1.53	1.53
Northwestern	B10	3.77	3.77	55.17	55.17	0.39	0.39
Nebraska	B10	3.77	3.77	39.29	39.29	-0.81	-0.81
Minnesota	B10	2.44	2.44	56.25	56.25	0.31	0.31
Ohio St.	B10	2.44	2.44	78.79	78.79	1.40	1.40
Michigan St.	B10	2.43	2.43	78.12	78.12	1.37	1.37
Illinois	B10	2.37	2.37	54.84	54.84	0.23	0.23
Kentucky	SEC	1.68	1.68	93.94	93.94	1.48	1.48
Long Island	NEC	1.67	1.67	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.66	1.66	28.57	28.57	-0.71	-0.71
Radford	BSth	1.61	1.61	13.79	13.79	-1.17	-1.17
Hartford	AE	1.59	1.59	30.00	30.00	-0.64	-0.64
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.59	1.59	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
Cornell	Ivy	1.59	1.59	42.31	42.31	-0.24	-0.24
Duquesne	A10	1.59	1.59	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Mississippi	SEC	1.59	1.59	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
Boston College	ACC	1.56	1.56	30.00	30.00	-0.62	-0.62
South Florida	BE	1.56	1.56	61.29	61.29	0.35	0.35
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.23	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Butler	Horz	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.13	0.13	10.34	10.34	-0.10	-0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	86.21	86.21	0.08	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	6.45	6.45	-0.09	-0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	21.88	21.88	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	65.38	65.38	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00