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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:136.8
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:74
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1036.00.02%
20-1146.40.19%
19-1261.00.74%
18-1372.22.18%
17-1485.54.93%
16-1598.99.55%
15-16113.114.84%
14-17129.318.73%
13-18145.318.75%
12-19161.714.65%
11-20179.39.35%
10-21197.64.26%
9-22213.71.48%
8-23231.60.28%
7-24237.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Albany (156.7)AEH81-87L0%0.0
11-13Duquesne (255.5)A10H82-74W100%0.0
11-15Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH85-76W100%0.0
11-19Duke (8.6)ACCN78-68L0%0.0
11-20Cincinnati (21.0)AmerN71-50L0%0.0
11-23Colgate (231.7)PatH72-59W100%0.0
11-26George Washington (176.1)A10A68-74W100%0.0
11-29Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH67-60W100%0.0
12-3Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-074%7.8
12-7George Mason (200.3)A10H0-078%9.3
12-10Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCN0-031%-5.9
12-18St. John's (167.9)BEA0-040%-3.1
12-21Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-095%19.8
12-27Northwestern (60.3)B10H0-032%-5.7
1-1Rutgers (182.4)B10A0-049%-0.3
1-4Michigan (45.6)B10A0-014%-13.2
1-7Michigan St. (41.5)B10H0-028%-6.8
1-14Minnesota (46.1)B10H0-036%-4.3
1-18Indiana (20.3)B10H0-018%-10.8
1-21Purdue (28.6)B10A0-08%-16.9
1-24Wisconsin (29.2)B10A0-08%-17.0
1-28Illinois (134.7)B10H0-057%2.1
2-1Indiana (20.3)B10A0-08%-17.0
2-4Rutgers (182.4)B10H0-069%5.9
2-7Maryland (99.7)B10H0-052%0.5
2-11Illinois (134.7)B10A0-037%-4.0
2-14Nebraska (94.1)B10A0-031%-6.0
2-21Purdue (28.6)B10H0-019%-10.7
2-25Minnesota (46.1)B10A0-019%-10.5
2-28Ohio St. (30.8)B10H0-025%-8.0
3-5Iowa (164.3)B10A0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1028.8626.0952.7839.151.60-5.66
RutgersB100.003.7883.3345.040.00-0.38
MinnesotaB100.003.7885.7165.210.001.15
IndianaB100.003.7883.3374.250.001.83
PurdueB100.003.7871.4373.610.001.78
IllinoisB100.003.7557.1441.920.00-0.61
NorthwesternB100.002.3071.4366.150.000.74
MarylandB100.002.3085.7156.770.000.31
Michigan St.B100.392.3050.0061.260.000.52
IowaB100.002.2842.8643.66-0.00-0.29
WisconsinB100.002.2775.0073.230.001.06
MichiganB100.002.2571.4365.860.000.71
Ohio St.B100.002.2285.7172.590.001.00
NebraskaB100.002.1950.0042.700.00-0.32
DuquesneA106.251.7442.8635.81-0.89-0.50
DukeACC6.771.7285.7177.974.840.96
George WashingtonA106.251.7266.6745.632.08-0.15
PittsburghACC0.001.7285.7155.110.000.18
AlbanyAE7.221.6940.0059.01-1.440.31
George MasonA100.001.6957.1443.660.00-0.21
St. John'sBE0.001.6928.5733.04-0.00-0.57
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.6716.6738.28-0.00-0.39
ColgatePat6.251.6725.0042.74-3.12-0.24
Grand CanyonWAC7.161.6760.0058.271.430.28
Georgia TechACC6.251.6680.0041.093.75-0.30
CincinnatiAmer6.771.6483.3380.324.510.99
Wright St.Horz0.001.6171.4356.820.000.22
VCUA100.000.2485.7178.150.000.13
LouisvilleACC0.000.2485.7175.950.000.12
Florida St.ACC0.000.2485.7162.410.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.24100.0075.010.000.12
SyracuseACC0.620.2166.6770.140.210.08
North CarolinaACC0.000.2185.7180.010.000.13
Miami FLACC0.000.1871.4365.740.000.06
FordhamA100.000.1857.1443.680.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1616.6736.35-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1671.4350.570.000.00
DaytonA100.000.1666.6772.440.000.07
RichmondA100.000.1657.1448.600.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0082.550.000.10
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0075.690.000.08
Stony BrookAE0.000.1316.6733.82-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.390.1316.6730.27-0.26-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1366.6753.460.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0024.77-0.00-0.07
DePaulBE0.000.1380.0035.960.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1333.3326.75-0.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.1371.4354.520.000.01
NJITASun0.620.1342.8650.32-0.090.00
Rhode IslandA100.840.1371.4370.330.360.05
SMUAmer0.000.1357.1469.300.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1371.4352.370.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1371.4363.090.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.110.0019.51-0.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1150.0052.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1183.3376.370.000.06
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0017.30-0.00-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8637.60-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.1112.5022.55-0.00-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.1142.8640.94-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.390.1185.7176.170.280.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1150.0038.430.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1125.0040.81-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1128.5747.72-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1083.3368.880.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1050.0047.560.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1012.5048.98-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6770.740.000.04
TulaneAmer0.520.1014.2926.81-0.37-0.05
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0083.120.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.520.090.0018.22-0.52-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0024.19-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0850.0059.670.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0850.0050.290.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0054.490.000.01
BrownIvy0.970.0850.0042.420.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0833.3348.71-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0883.3378.430.000.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0825.0024.28-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.080.0034.23-0.45-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.35-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.910.0842.8635.68-0.13-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0816.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.520.0842.8647.69-0.07-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0860.0067.410.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.520.0857.1440.590.07-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.08100.0083.550.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.390.0833.3340.49-0.13-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0816.6725.61-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.000.0828.5743.62-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.390.0880.0055.340.230.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.0860.0051.780.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.51-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0883.3357.990.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0883.3359.600.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0820.0041.93-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0871.4356.280.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0871.4363.570.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0883.3374.620.000.04
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0516.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0533.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0516.6743.29-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0566.6775.370.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.520.0525.0056.92-0.260.01
ArizonaP120.000.0585.7170.990.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.450.050.0024.25-0.45-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0520.0048.38-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3353.29-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0533.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.530.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0571.4368.660.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6756.360.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.620.0542.8642.47-0.09-0.01
CornellIvy0.620.0528.5730.63-0.27-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0542.8636.82-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0533.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.630.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0560.0070.500.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.390.0533.3341.52-0.13-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.450.0566.6754.380.150.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0516.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.970.0528.5750.51-0.410.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.520.0514.2928.66-0.37-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0533.3364.14-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0540.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0514.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0566.6770.930.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0550.0045.410.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.450.0571.4368.970.190.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.390.05100.0086.250.390.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0540.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0566.6761.340.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0557.1448.860.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0022.69-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
OhioMAC0.520.0380.0068.320.310.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.520.0350.0058.600.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.390.0320.0036.00-0.23-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.450.030.0043.04-0.45-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.450.0314.2933.07-0.32-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.450.0357.1455.810.060.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.390.0340.0043.86-0.08-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.390.0375.0054.320.200.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UABCUSA0.450.0357.1461.940.060.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.390.0340.0055.44-0.080.00