live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:104.5
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:249
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-617.50.02%
22-711.60.05%
21-818.70.27%
20-924.60.78%
19-1033.22.00%
18-1144.24.50%
17-1256.67.98%
16-1370.612.66%
15-1486.815.09%
14-15105.117.78%
13-16123.715.52%
12-17142.911.19%
11-18161.96.86%
10-19182.73.49%
9-20200.51.29%
8-21217.90.35%
7-22230.60.14%
6-23255.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Morgan St. (265.6)MEACH61-48W100%0.0
11-16Fordham (243.8)A10H73-54W100%0.0
11-20Charlotte (120.7)CUSAN0-056%2.0
11-25Akron (95.8)MACH0-064%4.5
11-28Bucknell (172.7)PatA0-059%2.9
12-3Virginia Tech (173.6)ACCH0-072%7.0
12-6Marshall (208.7)CUSAA0-064%4.2
12-10Duquesne (166.4)A10H0-072%7.1
12-14George Washington (56.5)A10H0-047%-1.0
12-20Drexel (214.3)CAAN0-073%7.2
12-22Dartmouth (297.3)IvyH0-091%16.0
12-31Wisconsin (4.6)B10A0-06%-18.6
1-3Rutgers (191.4)B10A0-055%1.5
1-6Michigan (26.2)B10H0-033%-5.2
1-13Indiana (80.5)B10A0-028%-6.9
1-17Purdue (99.3)B10H0-057%2.0
1-21Michigan St. (30.5)B10A0-016%-12.1
1-24Rutgers (191.4)B10H0-076%8.7
1-28Minnesota (48.9)B10H0-041%-2.7
1-31Illinois (54.6)B10A0-024%-8.6
2-4Maryland (61.6)B10A0-026%-7.9
2-7Nebraska (78.5)B10H0-053%1.0
2-11Ohio St. (22.3)B10A0-013%-13.7
2-14Maryland (61.6)B10H0-048%-0.7
2-18Wisconsin (4.6)B10H0-017%-11.4
2-21Northwestern (144.6)B10A0-045%-1.4
2-28Iowa (30.3)B10H0-036%-4.3
3-4Ohio St. (22.3)B10H0-029%-6.6
3-8Minnesota (48.9)B10A0-020%-9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1043.7526.15100.0045.1543.75-2.54
MarylandB100.004.09100.0063.160.001.08
RutgersB100.004.0950.0034.740.00-1.25
MinnesotaB100.004.0650.0063.770.001.12
WisconsinB100.004.06100.0083.540.002.72
Ohio St.B100.004.03100.0076.070.002.10
IowaB100.002.45100.0068.330.000.90
NebraskaB100.002.45100.0053.670.000.18
IndianaB100.002.45100.0058.310.000.41
PurdueB100.002.45100.0053.250.000.16
MichiganB100.002.45100.0070.480.001.00
NorthwesternB100.002.40100.0046.310.00-0.18
Michigan St.B100.002.3950.0069.370.000.93
IllinoisB100.002.37100.0061.830.000.56
George WashingtonA100.001.90100.0071.240.000.81
FordhamA1025.001.840.0034.70-25.00-0.56
DuquesneA100.001.810.0052.42-0.000.09
MarshallCUSA0.001.81100.0042.580.00-0.27
CharlotteCUSA0.001.81100.0060.410.000.38
BucknellPat0.001.7550.0045.050.00-0.17
AkronMAC0.001.75100.0068.170.000.64
Virginia TechACC0.001.75100.0045.090.00-0.17
Morgan St.MEAC25.001.750.0041.79-25.00-0.29
DartmouthIvy0.001.720.0035.85-0.00-0.49
DrexelCAA0.001.720.0042.05-0.00-0.27
LouisvilleACC0.000.20100.0078.370.000.11
DavidsonA100.000.18100.0049.680.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1850.0046.600.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.16100.0057.220.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1633.3334.65-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1550.0037.260.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1566.6762.860.000.04
DaytonA100.000.15100.0067.960.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.15100.0054.620.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1550.0050.920.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0028.57-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1533.3331.18-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0067.820.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.150.0035.56-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.150.0029.73-0.00-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.1550.0035.040.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.150.0050.40-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.1450.0056.060.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0068.190.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1350.0039.970.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.12100.0062.520.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.12100.0068.650.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6743.800.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.1250.0029.550.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.1250.0061.480.000.03
VCUA100.000.12100.0076.610.000.06
BrownIvy0.000.1233.3340.52-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3339.11-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.12100.0071.150.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.120.0048.02-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.120.0056.37-0.000.02
DukeACC0.000.12100.0086.240.000.09
Wake ForestACC0.000.1266.6746.880.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.120.0058.77-0.000.02
VMISC0.000.1250.0044.590.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.120.0038.80-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0024.20-0.00-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.11100.0068.450.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.11100.0042.320.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1050.0054.380.000.01
TowsonCAA6.250.1050.0044.540.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.09100.0055.760.000.01
NJITind0.000.0933.3329.39-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0950.0060.230.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0051.090.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0037.97-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0055.890.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0950.0063.090.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.090.0039.06-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0057.050.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.090.0048.73-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0033.88-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0054.470.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.090.0017.55-0.00-0.06
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0044.320.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0037.20-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.090.0037.69-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.09100.0047.330.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0950.0029.980.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0057.380.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0036.73-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.090.0048.38-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0066.300.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0950.0054.340.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0072.850.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.09100.0058.110.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0031.94-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0049.720.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0069.80-0.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0046.40-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0066.000.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0035.06-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0055.080.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.090.0051.34-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0950.0050.350.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.090.0058.20-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0042.59-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0750.0061.660.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0750.0048.000.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0064.020.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.060.0049.65-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0666.6745.290.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0066.63-0.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0059.950.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3351.13-0.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.060.0054.42-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3337.15-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.06100.0064.670.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0027.00-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.12-0.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0041.420.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0049.79-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0064.960.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.63-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0058.210.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0066.580.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0054.740.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.06100.0059.680.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0056.19-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.640.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0016.45-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.93-0.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0061.100.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6763.540.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0039.33-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0068.290.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6740.290.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.59-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0038.37-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0053.570.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0048.17-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.000.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0029.08-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0046.05-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0071.330.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.45-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.100.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.32-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0070.240.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0065.510.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0066.640.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0039.95-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0055.300.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0035.160.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.320.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0035.21-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.40-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0051.970.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0042.02-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.06100.0062.960.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.150.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0023.33-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.24-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0059.650.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.390.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0070.250.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.340.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.35-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0072.920.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.80-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.38-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0056.280.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0049.82-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6741.760.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6750.960.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.37-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0023.08-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0051.620.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0036.560.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3337.80-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.590.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.530.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0037.740.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0034.77-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0061.920.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0044.27-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.010.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.320.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0040.670.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0350.0042.940.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0020.22-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0060.150.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.500.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3326.69-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.480.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0042.30-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0050.990.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0068.320.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.90-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0046.500.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0050.780.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.980.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.31-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0051.390.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0037.25-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0039.48-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.18-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0035.500.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0045.30-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0027.02-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0041.170.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0063.940.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0024.69-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0044.410.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6754.700.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0054.330.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.030.0043.54-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0069.850.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0059.850.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0055.680.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.89-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0028.09-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0037.28-0.00-0.01