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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:114.0
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17114.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Wagner (218.0)NECH74-62W100%0.0
11-13Bucknell (167.0)PatH80-90L0%0.0
11-16Penn (284.0)IvyA71-83W100%0.0
11-19La Salle (98.0)A10H79-72W100%0.0
11-24Longwood (337.0)BSthH93-67W100%0.0
11-26Monmouth (292.0)MAACH84-52W100%0.0
11-29St. John's (67.0)BEN82-89W100%0.0
11-30Mississippi (94.0)SECN79-76L0%0.0
12-3Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA78-69L0%0.0
12-7Marshall (276.0)CUSAH90-77W100%0.0
12-11Duquesne (187.0)A10A59-68W100%0.0
12-14Princeton (122.0)IvyH79-81L0%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH92-82W100%0.0
12-31Michigan St. (18.0)B10H63-79L0%0.0
1-4Illinois (70.0)B10A75-55L0%0.0
1-8Minnesota (50.0)B10H65-68L0%0.0
1-11Indiana (102.0)B10H76-79L0%0.0
1-14Michigan (11.0)B10A80-67L0%0.0
1-18Purdue (145.0)B10A65-64L0%0.0
1-23Nebraska (48.0)B10H58-54W100%0.0
1-29Ohio St. (24.0)B10A70-71W100%0.0
2-2Purdue (145.0)B10H79-68W100%0.0
2-6Michigan St. (18.0)B10A82-67L0%0.0
2-9Illinois (70.0)B10H55-60L0%0.0
2-12Indiana (102.0)B10A65-66W100%0.0
2-15Iowa (56.0)B10H70-82L0%0.0
2-20Nebraska (48.0)B10A80-67L0%0.0
2-27Ohio St. (24.0)B10H65-63W100%0.0
3-2Wisconsin (6.0)B10H66-71L0%0.0
3-6Northwestern (123.0)B10A32-59W100%0.0
3-9Minnesota (50.0)B10A81-63L0%0.0
3-13Minnesota (50.0)B10N63-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.2226.2243.5143.51-3.41-3.41
MinnesotaB105.295.2955.1755.170.550.55
Ohio St.B103.953.9578.1278.122.222.22
IllinoisB103.853.8554.8454.840.370.37
Michigan St.B103.853.8575.0075.001.921.92
PurdueB103.823.8246.6746.67-0.25-0.25
NebraskaB103.823.8262.0762.070.920.92
IndianaB103.803.8053.3353.330.250.25
MichiganB102.452.4575.0075.001.231.23
WisconsinB102.432.4378.1278.121.371.37
NorthwesternB102.382.3843.7543.75-0.30-0.30
IowaB102.332.3360.0060.000.470.47
WagnerNEC1.741.7462.0762.070.420.42
PennIvy1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
St. John'sBE1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
La SalleA101.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy1.641.6469.2369.230.630.63
MonmouthMAAC1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
BucknellPat1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
DuquesneA101.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
PittsburghACC1.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
LongwoodBSth1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
MarshallCUSA1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
MississippiSEC1.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
DartmouthIvy0.210.2138.4638.46-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.190.1984.3884.380.130.13
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.170.1751.8551.850.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
VillanovaBE0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
BryantNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
MaristMAAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01