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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:101.0
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18101.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Albany (129.0)AEH81-87L0%0.0
11-13Duquesne (267.0)A10H82-74W100%0.0
11-15Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH85-76W100%0.0
11-19Duke (6.0)ACCN78-68L0%0.0
11-20Cincinnati (12.0)AmerN71-50L0%0.0
11-23Colgate (294.0)PatH72-59W100%0.0
11-26George Washington (102.0)A10A68-74W100%0.0
11-29Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH67-60W100%0.0
12-3Wright St. (115.0)HorzH72-50W100%0.0
12-7George Mason (103.0)A10H66-85L0%0.0
12-10Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCN81-73L0%0.0
12-18St. John's (140.0)BEA76-92W100%0.0
12-21Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH96-55W100%0.0
12-27Northwestern (50.0)B10H77-87L0%0.0
1-1Rutgers (177.0)B10A47-60W100%0.0
1-4Michigan (25.0)B10A72-69L0%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (51.0)B10N72-63W100%0.0
1-14Minnesota (20.0)B10H52-50W100%0.0
1-18Indiana (79.0)B10H75-78L0%0.0
1-21Purdue (19.0)B10A77-52L0%0.0
1-24Wisconsin (35.0)B10A82-55L0%0.0
1-28Illinois (62.0)B10H71-67W100%0.0
2-1Indiana (79.0)B10A110-102L0%0.0
2-4Rutgers (177.0)B10H68-70L0%0.0
2-7Maryland (36.0)B10H70-64W100%0.0
2-11Illinois (62.0)B10A70-83W100%0.0
2-14Nebraska (107.0)B10A82-66L0%0.0
2-21Purdue (19.0)B10H70-74L0%0.0
2-25Minnesota (20.0)B10A81-71L0%0.0
2-28Ohio St. (90.0)B10H70-71L0%0.0
3-5Iowa (81.0)B10A90-79L0%0.0
3-8Nebraska (107.0)B10N67-76W100%0.0
3-9Michigan St. (51.0)B10N78-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.1126.1141.9441.94-4.21-4.21
Michigan St.B103.733.7358.0658.060.600.60
MinnesotaB103.663.6674.1974.191.771.77
RutgersB103.623.6243.3343.33-0.48-0.48
IndianaB103.613.6151.6151.610.120.12
PurdueB103.613.6176.6776.671.931.93
NebraskaB103.593.5935.7135.71-1.02-1.02
IllinoisB103.563.5658.6258.620.610.61
MichiganB102.342.3467.6567.650.830.83
NorthwesternB102.302.3066.6766.670.770.77
WisconsinB102.242.2472.7372.731.021.02
IowaB102.232.2354.8454.840.220.22
Ohio St.B102.202.2051.6151.610.070.07
MarylandB102.202.2076.6776.671.171.17
DukeACC1.631.6376.4776.470.870.87
PittsburghACC1.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
DuquesneA101.631.6332.2632.26-0.58-0.58
George WashingtonA101.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
St. John'sBE1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
AlbanyAE1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
George MasonA101.581.5858.0658.060.260.26
Georgia TechACC1.581.5853.3353.330.110.11
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
ColgatePat1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Grand CanyonWAC1.561.5671.4371.430.670.67
CincinnatiAmer1.541.5484.8584.851.071.07
Wright St.Horz1.521.5262.0762.070.370.37
VCUA100.240.2476.4776.470.130.13
LouisvilleACC0.230.2375.0075.000.120.12
Notre DameACC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
Florida St.ACC0.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
North CarolinaACC0.200.2078.7978.790.120.12
FordhamA100.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
DaytonA100.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
ClemsonACC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Saint LouisA100.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Miami FLACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
SMUAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HartfordAE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.040.04
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00