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Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:124.1
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:87
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1388.61.03%
17-14101.412.41%
16-15118.041.55%
15-16136.745.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Morgan St. (332.0)MEACH61-48W100%0.0
11-16Fordham (232.0)A10H73-54W100%0.0
11-20Charlotte (202.9)CUSAN106-97L0%0.0
11-21Cornell (206.8)IvyN71-72W100%0.0
11-23USC (209.6)P12N63-61W100%0.0
11-25Akron (129.4)MACH78-72W100%0.0
11-28Bucknell (144.0)PatA80-88W100%0.0
12-3Virginia Tech (220.1)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (293.5)CUSAA69-73W100%0.0
12-10Duquesne (237.4)A10H64-62W100%0.0
12-14George Washington (87.9)A10H64-51W100%0.0
12-20Drexel (252.6)CAAN73-68W100%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (219.8)IvyH69-49W100%0.0
12-31Wisconsin (5.7)B10A89-72L0%0.0
1-3Rutgers (166.9)B10A50-46L0%0.0
1-6Michigan (87.2)B10H64-73L0%0.0
1-13Indiana (46.8)B10A76-73L0%0.0
1-17Purdue (59.8)B10H77-84L0%0.0
1-21Michigan St. (32.0)B10A66-60L0%0.0
1-24Rutgers (166.9)B10H79-51W100%0.0
1-28Minnesota (83.8)B10H63-58W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (64.6)B10A60-58L0%0.0
2-4Maryland (12.6)B10A64-58L0%0.0
2-7Nebraska (126.4)B10H56-43W100%0.0
2-11Ohio St. (35.3)B10A75-55L0%0.0
2-14Maryland (12.6)B10H73-76L0%0.0
2-18Wisconsin (5.7)B10H47-55L0%0.0
2-21Northwestern (118.0)B10A60-39L0%0.0
2-28Iowa (50.4)B10H0-032%-4.8
3-4Ohio St. (35.3)B10H0-017%-10.1
3-8Minnesota (83.8)B10A0-021%-8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.1026.0950.8646.980.45-1.58
MarylandB104.053.8180.7780.202.492.30
RutgersB104.083.8033.3332.14-1.36-1.36
WisconsinB103.993.7888.4686.563.072.76
MinnesotaB102.303.7859.2657.950.430.60
Ohio St.B102.233.7570.3770.160.911.51
IowaB100.612.2764.2964.430.170.66
PurdueB102.322.2766.6763.540.770.61
NebraskaB102.332.2748.1546.60-0.09-0.15
IndianaB102.422.2764.2963.350.690.61
MichiganB102.292.2748.0048.21-0.09-0.08
Michigan St.B102.302.2266.6764.750.770.65
NorthwesternB102.332.2248.1546.41-0.09-0.16
IllinoisB102.302.1959.2659.950.430.44
George WashingtonA101.991.7866.6765.620.660.56
FordhamA101.881.7233.3333.54-0.63-0.57
CornellIvy1.851.7048.0048.66-0.07-0.05
CharlotteCUSA1.851.6940.7443.84-0.34-0.21
DuquesneA101.851.6937.5036.03-0.46-0.47
MarshallCUSA1.851.6932.0031.38-0.67-0.63
DartmouthIvy1.821.6745.8346.26-0.15-0.12
USCP121.851.6737.0436.51-0.48-0.45
AkronMAC1.851.6762.9662.880.480.43
DrexelCAA1.851.6738.4637.37-0.43-0.42
BucknellPat1.821.6457.1456.420.260.21
Virginia TechACC1.821.6437.0435.96-0.47-0.46
Morgan St.MEAC1.821.6425.9326.84-0.88-0.76
LouisvilleACC0.160.1978.5776.950.090.10
Miami FLACC0.190.1864.2963.100.060.05
VirginiaACC0.190.1896.3094.650.180.16
UMass LowellAE0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.170.1742.3140.79-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.140.1676.0075.770.070.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1655.1756.100.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1660.0058.420.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.190.1666.6767.410.060.06
MarquetteBE0.160.1640.7441.17-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.130.1640.7440.55-0.02-0.03
DaytonA100.170.1477.7874.890.100.07
La SalleA100.170.1453.5753.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1444.4442.95-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1453.8555.840.010.02
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1450.0050.760.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.170.1472.0070.730.080.06
George MasonA100.140.1426.9226.87-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.160.1439.2939.48-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.130.1364.2960.140.040.03
ColgatePat0.130.1344.8345.47-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1319.2320.46-0.08-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1353.3354.170.010.01
UMBCAE0.100.1314.2914.93-0.07-0.09
OhioMAC0.130.1333.3332.58-0.04-0.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1173.9173.230.070.05
PennIvy0.110.1129.1729.03-0.04-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.1144.0045.65-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.100.1169.2368.770.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.1157.1456.550.010.01
Saint LouisA100.140.1137.0436.55-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.140.1148.0048.61-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1159.2659.110.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1160.0059.190.020.02
RichmondA100.140.1157.1458.580.020.02
VCUA100.140.1175.0074.480.070.05
ColoradoP120.130.1144.4444.97-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1153.5753.780.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1177.7878.480.050.06
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1146.1547.78-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.130.1171.4369.280.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.1142.8641.83-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.1151.8553.170.000.01
CaliforniaP120.130.1157.1454.100.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.1142.3141.61-0.01-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1038.4638.56-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1019.2322.27-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1093.1090.930.080.09
DukeACC0.130.1089.2988.120.100.08
GeorgetownBE0.130.1069.2367.760.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.060.1067.8667.610.020.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1044.8345.59-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.130.1034.6235.81-0.04-0.03
NJITind0.110.0954.1754.130.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0837.9338.96-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0826.6726.81-0.05-0.04
SienaMAAC0.100.0835.7135.19-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0824.0022.68-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.070.0866.6763.990.020.02
FIUCUSA0.100.0842.3140.94-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0825.0026.57-0.03-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.100.0839.2939.90-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0821.4322.47-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.100.0857.6959.090.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0840.0040.28-0.01-0.02
PittsburghACC0.100.0864.2962.960.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0851.8551.130.000.00
VillanovaBE0.100.0892.8691.370.080.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0824.0025.09-0.05-0.04
ArmyPat0.090.0851.8551.090.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0854.1753.530.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0851.8551.810.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0842.8644.45-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0819.0521.40-0.06-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.100.0848.0045.30-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0833.3332.59-0.02-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0843.3343.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0851.7252.130.000.00
NavyPat0.090.0835.7135.96-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.100.0853.5754.190.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0851.7250.700.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0875.0077.310.050.04
ToledoMAC0.090.0864.2963.780.030.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0855.5653.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0842.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0874.0773.060.030.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0859.2660.580.010.02
Notre DameACC0.100.0882.7681.310.060.05
OaklandHorz0.100.0850.0048.920.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0855.5654.640.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0855.5656.260.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0857.6956.860.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0632.1432.11-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0663.3363.390.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.3363.510.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0661.5462.630.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0635.7134.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0629.6331.09-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0659.2658.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.0550.0049.840.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0548.0049.57-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.070.0589.2987.910.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0540.0040.10-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0575.0076.180.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0562.9663.070.020.01
SMUAmer0.070.0581.4880.510.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0570.3772.260.030.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0545.8346.23-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0578.5775.030.040.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0544.4445.40-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0523.0822.71-0.02-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0566.6765.760.010.02
Holy CrossPat0.060.0542.3141.81-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0555.5656.050.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0555.5654.850.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0525.0024.65-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0559.2659.110.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0524.0026.17-0.02-0.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0559.2658.440.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0545.8346.11-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0542.3143.33-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0566.6764.450.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0558.6260.540.010.01
UtahP120.060.0580.7780.910.040.03
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0540.7441.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0533.3334.43-0.01-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0515.3815.97-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.060.0566.6767.380.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0534.6234.47-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0531.0334.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0573.0873.180.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0572.0070.100.030.02
ButlerBE0.060.0571.4370.890.030.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0525.9326.73-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0516.6716.92-0.04-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0578.2676.740.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0567.8667.600.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0522.2224.13-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.050.001.32-0.06-0.05
Green BayHorz0.060.0574.0774.330.030.03
High PointBSth0.030.0573.0872.070.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0566.6764.480.010.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0540.7440.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0517.8620.58-0.04-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0525.9326.67-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0560.7161.360.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0566.6766.670.010.02
OklahomaB120.060.0570.3769.820.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0561.5461.360.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0568.9768.490.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0555.5657.590.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0532.0032.30-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0565.3865.140.020.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0533.3332.94-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0552.0053.550.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0533.3333.99-0.01-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0325.0024.39-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.040.0348.1547.54-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0380.0079.580.020.02
MaineAE0.040.0310.7110.50-0.03-0.02
MercerSC0.040.0350.0050.620.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0351.7252.280.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.040.0324.0023.95-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0314.2916.11-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.0025.41-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0371.4370.870.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.7731.61-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0326.9225.82-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0321.4322.23-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.034.004.82-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0367.8667.390.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0346.4344.29-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0342.3143.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0324.1424.67-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.705.03-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.790.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0365.0063.560.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0320.6920.37-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.950.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.6235.45-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0350.0050.670.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0352.1751.300.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0374.0774.230.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.5460.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0436.29-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0360.0059.760.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0348.0046.53-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0361.5459.990.010.01
WashingtonP120.000.0355.5654.230.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0344.4441.78-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0330.4332.31-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0316.0015.14-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0322.2222.17-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0324.0025.19-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0374.0773.880.020.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.4369.460.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0341.3840.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0372.0072.050.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.8553.120.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0373.9170.390.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.8551.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0335.0034.28-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0317.8618.91-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.4346.69-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0334.4835.30-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0378.5776.450.020.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0348.2846.44-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.28-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0343.4842.11-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0355.5656.450.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.0030.34-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0355.5656.610.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0323.0822.51-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0337.9337.78-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0337.0436.49-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.000.0360.7160.420.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0340.0041.11-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.9326.41-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.0024.45-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0389.2988.690.030.02