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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:31
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:152


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21186.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9St. Francis PA (322.0)NECH65-58W100%0.0
11-15North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCN55-72L0%0.0
11-16Providence (91.0)BEN52-55W100%0.0
11-18Akron (43.0)MACN60-85L0%0.0
11-23Bucknell (51.0)PatH60-57W100%0.0
11-28Boston College (113.0)ACCH61-73L0%0.0
12-1Pennsylvania (280.0)IvyH58-47W100%0.0
12-5La Salle (46.0)A10A82-57L0%0.0
12-8Army (205.0)PatH78-70W100%0.0
12-15Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH80-76W100%0.0
12-23New Hampshire (293.0)AEH72-45W100%0.0
12-29Duquesne (229.0)A10H84-74W100%0.0
1-3Wisconsin (32.0)B10A60-51L0%0.0
1-7Indiana (8.0)B10H51-74L0%0.0
1-10Northwestern (168.0)B10H54-70L0%0.0
1-13Purdue (136.0)B10A60-42L0%0.0
1-16Michigan St. (9.0)B10H72-81L0%0.0
1-19Nebraska (104.0)B10H64-68L0%0.0
1-23Indiana (8.0)B10A72-49L0%0.0
1-26Ohio St. (10.0)B10H51-65L0%0.0
1-31Iowa (79.0)B10A76-67L0%0.0
2-5Purdue (136.0)B10H49-58L0%0.0
2-9Nebraska (104.0)B10A67-53L0%0.0
2-14Iowa (79.0)B10H72-74L0%0.0
2-17Michigan (20.0)B10A79-71L0%0.0
2-21Illinois (40.0)B10A64-59L0%0.0
2-27Michigan (20.0)B10H84-78W100%0.0
3-2Minnesota (34.0)B10A73-44L0%0.0
3-7Northwestern (168.0)B10A59-66W100%0.0
3-10Wisconsin (32.0)B10H60-63L0%0.0
3-14Michigan (20.0)B10N83-66L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.2326.2325.5325.53-12.84-12.84
MichiganB105.535.5379.3179.313.243.24
WisconsinB103.993.9965.6265.621.251.25
IowaB103.993.9961.2961.290.900.90
PurdueB103.993.9943.3343.33-0.53-0.53
NorthwesternB103.973.9740.0040.00-0.79-0.79
IndianaB103.973.9780.6580.652.432.43
NebraskaB103.923.9241.9441.94-0.63-0.63
Ohio St.B102.502.5078.1278.121.411.41
IllinoisB102.452.4562.5062.500.610.61
Michigan St.B102.452.4574.1974.191.191.19
MinnesotaB102.382.3861.2961.290.540.54
BucknellPat1.801.8087.1087.101.331.33
North Carolina St.ACC1.741.7469.7069.700.680.68
Boston CollegeACC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
La SalleA101.691.6968.9768.970.640.64
ArmyPat1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
DuquesneA101.641.6427.5927.59-0.74-0.74
PennsylvaniaIvy1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
St. Francis PANEC1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
New HampshireAE1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
ProvidenceBE1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
AkronMAC1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
ButlerA100.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
ColgatePat0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
LafayettePat0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.190.196.906.90-0.16-0.16
AmericanPat0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Miami FLACC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
DartmouthIvy0.160.1629.6329.63-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
PittsburghBE0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
West VirginiaB120.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
MarylandACC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
ClemsonACC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Wake ForestACC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutBE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
HowardMEAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1148.0048.00-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
TempleA100.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01