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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:108.0
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:18-16
Expected Record:18-16
Current Conf Record:6-15
Expected Conf Record:6-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-16108.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH61-48W100%0.0
11-16Fordham (238.0)A10H73-54W100%0.0
11-20Charlotte (211.0)CUSAN106-97L0%0.0
11-21Cornell (227.0)IvyN71-72W100%0.0
11-23USC (207.0)P12N63-61W100%0.0
11-25Akron (115.0)MACH78-72W100%0.0
11-28Bucknell (136.0)PatA80-88W100%0.0
12-3Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (296.0)CUSAA69-73W100%0.0
12-10Duquesne (222.0)A10H64-62W100%0.0
12-14George Washington (84.0)A10H64-51W100%0.0
12-20Drexel (243.0)CAAN73-68W100%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH69-49W100%0.0
12-31Wisconsin (4.0)B10A89-72L0%0.0
1-3Rutgers (178.0)B10A50-46L0%0.0
1-6Michigan (81.0)B10H64-73L0%0.0
1-13Indiana (61.0)B10A76-73L0%0.0
1-17Purdue (55.0)B10H77-84L0%0.0
1-21Michigan St. (23.0)B10A66-60L0%0.0
1-24Rutgers (178.0)B10H79-51W100%0.0
1-28Minnesota (98.0)B10H63-58W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (73.0)B10A60-58L0%0.0
2-4Maryland (13.0)B10A64-58L0%0.0
2-7Nebraska (158.0)B10H56-43W100%0.0
2-11Ohio St. (41.0)B10A75-55L0%0.0
2-14Maryland (13.0)B10H73-76L0%0.0
2-18Wisconsin (4.0)B10H47-55L0%0.0
2-21Northwestern (125.0)B10A60-39L0%0.0
2-28Iowa (43.0)B10H77-81L0%0.0
3-4Ohio St. (41.0)B10H67-77L0%0.0
3-8Minnesota (98.0)B10A76-79W100%0.0
3-11Nebraska (158.0)B10N65-68W100%0.0
3-12Iowa (43.0)B10N58-67W100%0.0
3-13Purdue (55.0)B10N64-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.1526.1550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB103.643.6456.6756.670.490.49
WisconsinB103.633.6390.6290.622.952.95
PurdueB103.603.6061.2961.290.810.81
MarylandB103.583.5880.6580.652.192.19
Ohio St.B103.583.5867.7467.741.271.27
IowaB103.583.5866.6766.671.191.19
RutgersB103.573.5730.0030.00-1.43-1.43
NebraskaB103.573.5744.8344.83-0.37-0.37
Michigan St.B102.192.1966.6766.670.730.73
IndianaB102.192.1959.3859.380.410.41
MichiganB102.172.1746.6746.67-0.14-0.14
IllinoisB102.112.1158.0658.060.340.34
NorthwesternB102.102.1045.1645.16-0.20-0.20
George WashingtonA101.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
DuquesneA101.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
FordhamA101.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
CornellIvy1.551.5542.8642.86-0.22-0.22
CharlotteCUSA1.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
MarshallCUSA1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
DartmouthIvy1.521.5251.8551.850.060.06
DrexelCAA1.521.5239.2939.29-0.33-0.33
AkronMAC1.521.5260.6160.610.320.32
USCP121.521.5238.7138.71-0.34-0.34
BucknellPat1.491.4958.0658.060.240.24
Virginia TechACC1.491.4934.3834.38-0.47-0.47
Morgan St.MEAC1.491.4923.3323.33-0.80-0.80
Miami FLACC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
BuffaloMAC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
VirginiaACC0.160.1690.6290.620.130.13
BrownIvy0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DavidsonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
UMBCAE0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
MarquetteBE0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Saint LouisA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
HarvardIvy0.100.1074.0774.070.050.05
PennIvy0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1027.2727.27-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
NJITind0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ArmyPat0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0471.4371.430.020.02
BYUWCC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0416.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.040.0467.8667.860.020.02
IUPUISum0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0464.7164.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0429.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01