live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:125.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:77
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VMI (316.0)SCH62-50W100%0.0
11-17DePaul (198.0)BEH68-62W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (162.0)A10A78-52L0%0.0
11-24Radford (192.0)BSthH74-86L0%0.0
11-28Bucknell (183.0)PatH62-58W100%0.0
12-2Boston College (250.0)ACCA58-67W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH81-70W100%0.0
12-8George Washington (68.0)A10A76-66L0%0.0
12-10Canisius (220.0)MAACH81-67W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH54-50W100%0.0
12-19Drexel (247.0)CAAA57-63W100%0.0
12-22Colorado (35.0)P12N71-70L0%0.0
12-23Kent St. (124.0)MACN75-69W100%0.0
12-30Maryland (14.0)B10A70-64L0%0.0
1-2Michigan (56.0)B10A79-56L0%0.0
1-5Minnesota (257.0)B10H86-77W100%0.0
1-10Michigan St. (12.0)B10H65-92L0%0.0
1-13Purdue (15.0)B10A74-57L0%0.0
1-16Northwestern (115.0)B10A62-71W100%0.0
1-21Wisconsin (43.0)B10H60-66L0%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (74.0)B10A66-46L0%0.0
1-30Michigan (56.0)B10H72-79L0%0.0
2-3Iowa (28.0)B10A73-49L0%0.0
2-6Indiana (24.0)B10H68-63W100%0.0
2-13Nebraska (165.0)B10A70-54L0%0.0
2-17Iowa (28.0)B10H79-75W100%0.0
2-20Rutgers (294.0)B10A58-70W100%0.0
2-25Nebraska (165.0)B10H56-55W100%0.0
2-28Michigan St. (12.0)B10A88-57L0%0.0
3-3Northwestern (115.0)B10H61-71L0%0.0
3-6Illinois (149.0)B10H86-79W100%0.0
3-10Ohio St. (74.0)B10N79-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.0726.0747.8347.83-1.13-1.13
Michigan St.B103.833.8384.3884.382.632.63
Ohio St.B103.783.7858.0658.060.610.61
MichiganB103.753.7561.2961.290.850.85
NorthwesternB103.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
NebraskaB103.733.7346.8846.88-0.23-0.23
IowaB103.693.6968.9768.971.401.40
PurdueB102.302.3075.7675.761.191.19
MarylandB102.282.2874.1974.191.101.10
RutgersB102.252.2520.0020.00-1.35-1.35
IllinoisB102.242.2445.4545.45-0.20-0.20
IndianaB102.212.2180.6580.651.351.35
MinnesotaB102.212.2126.6726.67-1.03-1.03
WisconsinB102.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
Kent St.MAC1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
George WashingtonA101.661.6668.7568.750.620.62
Eastern MichiganMAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
DePaulBE1.641.6430.0030.00-0.65-0.65
CanisiusMAAC1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
DuquesneA101.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
VMISC1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
BucknellPat1.561.5657.1457.140.220.22
ColoradoP121.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
DrexelCAA1.561.5620.6920.69-0.92-0.92
RadfordBSth1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
ElonCAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
ClemsonACC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
ArmyPat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0729.1729.17-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01