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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:24
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1469.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cornell (244.0)IvyH116-81W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee (143.0)SECH69-67W100%0.0
11-19Green Bay (112.0)HorzH107-77W100%0.0
11-22East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH68-69L0%0.0
11-26Arkansas (133.0)SECN83-73W100%0.0
11-27Villanova (4.0)BEN69-52L0%0.0
12-1Wofford (199.0)SCH77-61W100%0.0
12-5Tulane (227.0)AmerA68-76W100%0.0
12-15VCU (37.0)A10H77-64W100%0.0
12-19Georgia (62.0)SECA75-61L0%0.0
12-21Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH75-62W100%0.0
12-23Colgate (241.0)PatH76-60W100%0.0
12-29Duquesne (162.0)A10H73-67W100%0.0
1-2North Carolina (5.0)ACCA86-78L0%0.0
1-6Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA89-84L0%0.0
1-9Virginia (3.0)ACCH68-64W100%0.0
1-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA72-64L0%0.0
1-16Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH77-78L0%0.0
1-23Louisville (17.0)ACCH71-75L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA83-90W100%0.0
1-30Syracuse (72.0)ACCA60-57L0%0.0
2-2Duke (20.0)ACCH71-80L0%0.0
2-7Miami FL (9.0)ACCH68-75L0%0.0
2-10Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH71-66W100%0.0
2-13Clemson (131.0)ACCA66-52L0%0.0
2-17Florida St. (82.0)ACCA80-86W100%0.0
2-20Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH63-62W100%0.0
2-23Clemson (131.0)ACCH75-73W100%0.0
2-27Boston College (250.0)ACCA71-76W100%0.0
3-1Louisville (17.0)ACCA56-53L0%0.0
3-5Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH63-59W100%0.0
3-9Clemson (131.0)ACCN85-88W100%0.0
3-10Virginia (3.0)ACCN72-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC26.1226.1253.8553.852.012.01
ClemsonACC5.095.0957.1457.140.730.73
VirginiaACC3.703.7080.6580.652.272.27
PittsburghACC3.653.6565.5265.521.131.13
Notre DameACC3.573.5766.6766.671.191.19
LouisvilleACC3.573.5772.4172.411.601.60
North CarolinaACC2.252.2581.8281.821.431.43
Florida St.ACC2.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
SyracuseACC2.192.1958.0658.060.350.35
DukeACC2.182.1868.7568.750.820.82
Miami FLACC2.172.1777.4277.421.191.19
Virginia TechACC2.162.1656.2556.250.270.27
Boston CollegeACC2.162.1622.5822.58-1.18-1.18
Wake ForestACC2.132.1336.6736.67-0.57-0.57
North Carolina St.ACC2.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
GeorgiaSEC1.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
East Tennessee St.SC1.631.6364.5264.520.470.47
CornellIvy1.611.6134.6234.62-0.50-0.50
TennesseeSEC1.611.6145.4545.45-0.15-0.15
ArkansasSEC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
DuquesneA101.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
VCUA101.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
VillanovaBE1.581.5884.8584.851.101.10
ColgatePat1.571.5742.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Green BayHorz1.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
TulaneAmer1.541.5436.3636.36-0.42-0.42
South CarolinaSEC0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
AlabamaSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
DavidsonA100.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
MissouriSEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
LSUSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
George WashingtonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BucknellPat0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
DetroitHorz0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
TulsaAmer0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01