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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:157.0
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:116
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17157.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH88-57W100%0.0
11-11Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH68-50W100%0.0
11-15Georgia (74.0)SECA71-80W100%0.0
11-20Dayton (43.0)A10H72-82L0%0.0
11-24North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH78-71W100%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH76-59W100%0.0
11-29Mississippi (94.0)SECN67-77L0%0.0
11-30St. John's (67.0)BEN69-58L0%0.0
12-3Illinois (70.0)B10H67-64W100%0.0
12-7East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH87-57W100%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH74-57W100%0.0
12-21Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA76-63L0%0.0
12-29Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA55-58W100%0.0
1-4Maryland (78.0)ACCA77-61L0%0.0
1-7Duke (9.0)ACCA79-57L0%0.0
1-11Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH74-69W100%0.0
1-14Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH74-81L0%0.0
1-18Miami FL (110.0)ACCH42-56L0%0.0
1-21Boston College (207.0)ACCA60-68W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA80-78L0%0.0
1-29North Carolina (25.0)ACCH65-78L0%0.0
2-1Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA70-79W100%0.0
2-4Clemson (79.0)ACCA45-41L0%0.0
2-8Virginia (8.0)ACCH45-64L0%0.0
2-13Boston College (207.0)ACCH74-71W100%0.0
2-18Duke (9.0)ACCH51-68L0%0.0
2-22Clemson (79.0)ACCH55-63L0%0.0
2-26Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA65-62L0%0.0
3-2Florida St. (54.0)ACCA81-71L0%0.0
3-4Syracuse (16.0)ACCA62-67W100%0.0
3-8Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH62-51W100%0.0
3-12Boston College (207.0)ACCN73-70W100%0.0
3-13Clemson (79.0)ACCN69-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC26.1726.1745.1645.16-2.53-2.53
ClemsonACC5.085.0858.6258.620.880.88
Boston CollegeACC5.045.0425.0025.00-2.52-2.52
DukeACC3.643.6475.0075.001.821.82
Notre DameACC3.593.5946.6746.67-0.24-0.24
Wake ForestACC2.222.2253.1253.120.140.14
Florida St.ACC2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
VirginiaACC2.172.1781.8281.821.381.38
PittsburghACC2.172.1772.7372.730.990.99
SyracuseACC2.172.1787.1087.101.611.61
North Carolina St.ACC2.142.1460.6160.610.450.45
Virginia TechACC2.132.1330.0030.00-0.85-0.85
North CarolinaACC2.122.1270.9770.970.890.89
Miami FLACC2.102.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC2.082.0850.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC1.681.6856.2556.250.210.21
Delaware St.MEAC1.631.6325.9325.93-0.79-0.79
East Tennessee St.ASun1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.591.5926.6726.67-0.74-0.74
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
GeorgiaSEC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
VanderbiltSEC1.581.5846.6746.67-0.11-0.11
DaytonA101.571.5768.7568.750.590.59
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5614.2914.29-1.12-1.12
St. John'sBE1.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
PresbyterianBSth1.541.5413.7913.79-1.11-1.11
IllinoisB101.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
AuburnSEC0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
MassachusettsA100.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1941.1841.18-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
IndianaB100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
MissouriSEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
VMIBSth0.140.1455.5655.560.020.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
FurmanSC0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
FordhamA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
UCLAP120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
VermontAE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0293.1093.100.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00