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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:83.5
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:17
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1028.20.05%
20-1139.70.62%
19-1251.74.71%
18-1363.314.86%
17-1474.825.57%
16-1587.528.86%
15-16101.517.96%
14-17116.56.08%
13-18133.31.22%
12-19148.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cornell (207.2)IvyH116-81W100%0.0
11-16Tennessee (118.4)SECH69-67W100%0.0
11-19Green Bay (162.5)HorzH107-77W100%0.0
11-22East Tennessee St. (123.5)SCH68-69L0%0.0
11-26Arkansas (88.9)SECN83-73W100%0.0
11-27Villanova (3.7)BEN69-52L0%0.0
12-1Wofford (191.1)SCH77-61W100%0.0
12-5Tulane (241.0)AmerA68-76W100%0.0
12-15VCU (37.0)A10H77-64W100%0.0
12-19Georgia (78.6)SECA75-61L0%0.0
12-21Southeastern Louisiana (332.5)SlndH75-62W100%0.0
12-23Colgate (222.9)PatH76-60W100%0.0
12-29Duquesne (113.9)A10H73-67W100%0.0
1-2North Carolina (10.7)ACCA86-78L0%0.0
1-6Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCA89-84L0%0.0
1-9Virginia (6.1)ACCH68-64W100%0.0
1-13Notre Dame (40.3)ACCA72-64L0%0.0
1-16Virginia Tech (128.4)ACCH77-78L0%0.0
1-23Louisville (15.9)ACCH71-75L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina St. (116.7)ACCA83-90W100%0.0
1-30Syracuse (52.7)ACCA60-57L0%0.0
2-2Duke (20.7)ACCH71-80L0%0.0
2-7Miami FL (14.2)ACCH0-035%-4.1
2-10Wake Forest (126.2)ACCH0-082%9.8
2-13Clemson (100.4)ACCA0-037%-3.7
2-17Florida St. (46.9)ACCA0-032%-5.1
2-20Notre Dame (40.3)ACCH0-050%-0.1
2-23Clemson (100.4)ACCH0-061%2.9
2-27Boston College (234.2)ACCA0-081%9.6
3-1Louisville (15.9)ACCA0-011%-13.6
3-5Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCH0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC26.1226.0548.9448.06-0.56-1.01
PittsburghACC2.673.8175.0067.701.341.35
ClemsonACC0.453.7960.8760.840.100.82
LouisvilleACC2.523.7681.8276.561.602.00
Notre DameACC2.573.7368.1865.190.931.13
SyracuseACC2.682.2665.2261.320.820.51
Florida St.ACC0.402.2569.5764.770.160.67
VirginiaACC2.572.2586.3680.751.871.38
Boston CollegeACC0.402.2330.4326.74-0.16-1.04
North CarolinaACC2.612.2281.8277.981.661.24
DukeACC2.562.2272.7369.061.160.85
Wake ForestACC0.442.2243.4841.36-0.06-0.38
Virginia TechACC2.672.2052.1747.600.12-0.11
Miami FLACC0.242.2080.9575.860.151.14
North Carolina St.ACC2.572.1752.1750.740.110.03
East Tennessee St.SC2.471.7557.1457.990.350.28
WoffordSC2.371.7542.8647.00-0.34-0.10
CornellIvy2.431.7244.4441.75-0.27-0.28
TennesseeSEC2.431.7250.0048.440.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC2.381.7254.5557.800.220.27
GeorgiaSEC2.371.7260.0055.140.470.18
DuquesneA102.381.6966.6758.310.790.28
VCUA102.371.6977.2776.381.290.89
ColgatePat2.381.6747.6247.81-0.11-0.07
VillanovaBE2.371.6786.3685.911.731.20
Green BayHorz2.321.6457.1458.010.330.26
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.271.6415.7928.25-1.56-0.71
TulaneAmer2.321.6434.7833.40-0.71-0.54
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.1928.5731.90-0.11-0.07
MissouriSEC0.260.1934.7830.36-0.08-0.07
DavidsonA100.260.1960.0057.950.050.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1986.3679.150.080.11
AlabamaSEC0.100.1959.0953.030.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1940.9140.64-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.200.1873.9171.570.090.08
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1728.5731.37-0.07-0.06
MercerSC0.200.1672.7370.750.090.07
SamfordSC0.200.1639.1341.32-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.150.1665.2266.080.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1656.5260.000.020.03
Texas A&MSEC0.310.1678.2678.040.170.09
LSUSEC0.150.1665.2260.280.050.03
George WashingtonA100.200.1678.2674.360.110.08
Saint LouisA100.200.1638.1033.40-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.210.1486.3685.030.150.10
VMISC0.200.1415.7917.42-0.14-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1459.0959.640.030.03
George MasonA100.200.1334.7834.21-0.06-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1340.9136.61-0.02-0.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1135.0038.53-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.1121.0527.81-0.03-0.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1147.6245.86-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.1152.1753.310.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1150.0052.340.000.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1133.3331.30-0.03-0.04
BucknellPat0.100.1154.5558.150.010.02
LehighPat0.150.1133.3337.25-0.05-0.03
OaklandHorz0.160.1168.0067.970.060.04
UMass LowellAE0.110.1131.8232.67-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1130.4332.35-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1127.7834.49-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.100.1155.0052.290.010.00
MississippiSEC0.050.1165.2259.020.020.02
NebraskaB100.160.1154.1751.820.010.00
IndianaB100.100.1179.1774.030.060.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1140.9139.32-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.150.1120.0020.47-0.09-0.06
RichmondA100.050.1154.5554.550.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1170.0069.100.060.04
DaytonA100.100.1186.3682.350.070.07
LibertyBSth0.150.1134.7836.50-0.04-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1069.5767.220.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1082.6178.860.100.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.1054.1752.340.010.00
North FloridaASun0.150.1065.2267.130.050.04
ColumbiaIvy0.170.0966.6765.220.060.03
LafayettePat0.110.0922.7324.04-0.06-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.0972.2274.710.000.04
PennIvy0.050.0938.8937.66-0.01-0.02
YaleIvy0.110.0973.6874.620.050.04
MonmouthMAAC0.110.0879.1780.780.060.05
AmericanPat0.150.0830.4331.88-0.06-0.03
ArmyPat0.100.0852.1753.360.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0830.4335.11-0.04-0.02
TCUB120.160.0843.4837.22-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.100.0824.0026.41-0.05-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0814.2917.91-0.00-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0818.7526.45-0.07-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0825.0033.22-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0825.0026.87-0.03-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0823.8126.56-0.05-0.04
IowaB100.050.0881.8280.120.030.05
RutgersB100.000.0821.7420.35-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0850.0049.440.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.150.0881.8280.040.100.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0870.8370.930.060.03
Seton HallBE0.150.0873.9169.840.070.03
SouthernSWAC0.150.0865.0066.790.050.03
StanfordP120.150.0850.0046.610.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.150.0860.8755.860.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0845.4554.10-0.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0834.7834.45-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0845.4546.29-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0891.3084.380.040.05
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0872.7372.450.060.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0883.3383.010.030.05
ProvidenceBE0.100.0875.0070.940.050.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.0820.8320.12-0.08-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0837.5043.36-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0826.0923.73-0.05-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0863.6459.810.010.02
BrownIvy0.060.0631.5831.01-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.77-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.110.0675.0075.870.060.03
BinghamtonAE0.110.0621.7424.68-0.06-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.580.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.0639.1338.32-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.18-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.100.0662.5062.440.030.01
SienaMAAC0.110.0666.6767.270.040.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.24-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.050.0663.6459.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0617.6529.25-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0633.3335.08-0.03-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.030.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0555.0053.160.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.080.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0528.0030.73-0.05-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0520.8323.63-0.06-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.0545.4547.57-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.100.0555.0057.470.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.0560.8758.450.020.01
LamarSlnd0.100.0531.5831.96-0.04-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0570.5975.550.040.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0568.1866.670.040.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0565.2266.160.030.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0565.0063.440.030.01
IllinoisB100.050.0547.8344.55-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0543.4842.63-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0526.0927.82-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.9582.700.030.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0522.7323.25-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0513.6413.63-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0534.7840.92-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.7327.18-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0545.4551.34-0.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.8346.65-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0046.740.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0556.5256.620.000.01
UCLAP120.050.0556.5253.250.010.00
UtahP120.050.0572.7368.540.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.0582.6179.550.060.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.0571.4369.840.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0526.0929.20-0.05-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0559.0958.900.020.01
CreightonBE0.100.0562.5059.780.020.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0521.7423.31-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0545.4542.00-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0536.8441.46-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.100.0552.1750.430.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0582.6181.140.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0526.0926.50-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0572.7368.020.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0521.7423.40-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0560.8760.800.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.0566.6763.430.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.059.0917.11-0.08-0.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0550.0051.290.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0590.4885.570.040.04
TulsaAmer0.090.0563.6459.960.030.01
UCFAmer0.050.0552.3845.670.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3334.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0562.5056.260.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0341.6743.87-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0338.1041.91-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.500.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.260.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0352.6350.230.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0356.2556.100.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0347.6252.67-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.71-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.37-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0375.0071.510.030.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.380.030.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.900.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0363.6460.930.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0368.1865.290.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.750.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.14-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.76-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0361.9059.420.000.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.170.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0314.2915.47-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0338.8945.64-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0035.78-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.650.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0313.0413.54-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1753.070.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.910.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.870.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.070.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.37-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0334.7834.00-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.200.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.72-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.090.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0330.4331.18-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.630.020.01
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.640.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.130.010.00
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.430.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0372.7371.610.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.00-0.00