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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:191.7
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:222
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1271.00.01%
17-1380.20.05%
16-1497.10.34%
15-15114.21.76%
14-16132.24.28%
13-17150.610.25%
12-18169.916.51%
11-19189.123.04%
10-20207.621.08%
9-21225.414.60%
8-22242.66.33%
7-23258.71.48%
6-24273.10.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH70-55W100%0.0
11-14Southern (234.3)SWACH77-62W100%0.0
11-18Ohio (87.4)MACH61-67L0%0.0
11-22Sam Houston St. (166.4)SlndH81-73W100%0.0
11-26Tulane (283.2)AmerH82-68W100%0.0
11-29Penn St. (121.4)B10A67-60L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee (130.0)SECA81-58L0%0.0
12-7VCU (41.9)A10A0-016%-11.9
12-18Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACH0-094%18.4
12-20Georgia (71.7)SECH0-036%-4.2
12-22Wofford (243.9)SCH0-076%8.6
12-28North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACH0-096%21.7
12-31North Carolina (5.3)ACCH0-06%-18.7
1-4Duke (9.9)ACCA0-03%-23.1
1-7Louisville (7.2)ACCH0-010%-15.4
1-12Clemson (70.5)ACCH0-031%-5.9
1-15North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCA0-026%-7.6
1-18Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCA0-014%-12.8
1-21Virginia (8.6)ACCA0-02%-23.9
1-25Florida St. (40.7)ACCH0-023%-8.9
1-28Notre Dame (23.3)ACCH0-013%-13.7
2-1Clemson (70.5)ACCA0-016%-12.2
2-4Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA0-017%-11.4
2-11Boston College (233.9)ACCH0-072%7.1
2-15Miami FL (46.9)ACCA0-08%-16.6
2-19Syracuse (52.7)ACCH0-021%-9.8
2-21North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCH0-046%-1.4
2-26Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA0-05%-20.0
2-28Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH0-040%-3.1
3-4Syracuse (52.7)ACCA0-09%-16.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC28.9126.0548.0028.93-1.16-10.98
Notre DameACC0.003.88100.0076.420.002.05
ClemsonACC0.003.8871.4353.300.000.26
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.8575.0050.130.000.01
SyracuseACC0.003.8571.4365.420.001.19
North CarolinaACC0.452.3287.5081.560.331.46
Miami FLACC0.002.2975.0065.220.000.70
Florida St.ACC0.002.2987.5064.850.000.68
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2957.1429.850.00-0.92
LouisvilleACC0.002.2987.5075.110.001.15
PittsburghACC0.002.2975.0048.810.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.002.2975.0053.510.000.16
Virginia TechACC0.002.2785.7162.210.000.55
DukeACC0.402.2788.8977.770.311.26
VirginiaACC0.002.2487.5077.850.001.25
SouthernSWAC8.781.8550.0060.990.000.41
Tennessee TechOVC9.051.7828.5728.52-3.88-0.77
OhioMAC8.901.7680.0070.425.340.72
Sam Houston St.Slnd8.901.7560.0060.271.780.36
TennesseeSEC7.141.7525.0039.09-3.57-0.38
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7557.1451.640.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.730.0035.39-0.00-0.50
TulaneAmer7.141.7214.2924.76-5.10-0.87
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.720.0021.36-0.00-0.99
Penn St.B107.141.7262.5044.641.79-0.18
WoffordSC0.001.690.0035.22-0.00-0.50
VCUA100.001.6775.0072.690.000.76
South CarolinaSEC0.000.22100.0078.850.000.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.890.180.0013.46-0.89-0.13
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1825.0031.41-0.00-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.170.0027.12-0.00-0.08
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.240.000.08
KentuckySEC0.000.1687.5082.800.000.11
George WashingtonA100.400.1655.5641.690.04-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.1662.5050.710.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1550.0066.300.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1471.4356.260.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0017.61-0.00-0.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1450.0056.740.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.1471.4349.170.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.1457.1444.890.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1457.1451.790.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1485.7170.060.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1471.4363.170.000.04
St. John'sBE0.450.1437.5037.03-0.11-0.04
WisconsinB100.710.1477.7876.040.400.07
ColgatePat0.400.1312.5029.71-0.30-0.05
PurdueB100.000.1375.0075.340.000.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.69-0.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1214.2943.58-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0025.23-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1214.2931.28-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.1233.3356.24-0.000.01
MercerSC0.000.1242.8647.76-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.600.11100.0076.590.600.06
ChattanoogaSC0.710.1171.4373.040.310.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.400.1142.8658.58-0.060.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.47-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1177.7849.900.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.1185.7157.450.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0084.840.000.08
Appalachian St.SB0.710.1116.6729.80-0.48-0.04
IowaB100.000.1137.5037.74-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.04
RichmondA100.000.1150.0048.210.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1142.8654.90-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.490.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.360.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.0942.8650.12-0.060.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0942.8630.92-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.850.000.05
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.350.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.090.0016.78-0.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.12-0.00-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0985.7166.190.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3352.21-0.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0962.5056.520.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0971.4358.920.000.02
LipscombASun0.450.0912.5033.04-0.33-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.840.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0816.6738.58-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0017.13-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.600.0825.0047.82-0.30-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0062.620.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0842.8646.48-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0875.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.450.0857.1442.530.06-0.01
OklahomaB120.450.0871.4348.350.19-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0850.0046.240.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.890.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0048.810.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0037.65-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.400.0887.5082.360.300.05
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0875.0064.920.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0812.5034.79-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0814.2926.74-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.400.0844.4442.03-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0871.4359.880.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0862.5046.900.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0875.0070.620.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0041.540.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.33-0.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.450.0640.0041.93-0.09-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.450.0671.4356.250.190.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.710.060.0022.58-0.71-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.600.0671.4354.860.260.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3352.11-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0587.5059.310.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0514.2924.15-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0575.0066.410.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0575.0066.460.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0056.590.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0528.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0525.0020.78-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0542.8663.41-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.75-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5729.95-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.630.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0571.4370.210.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0555.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0542.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0537.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0542.8645.94-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.330.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0571.4368.050.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5069.130.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.420.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0516.6739.49-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.560.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.600.0350.0052.760.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.320.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Arizona St.P120.450.0362.5040.460.11-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.02
OregonP120.710.0375.0072.250.360.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.06-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
AlbanyAE0.400.0342.8661.11-0.060.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.310.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.400.0362.5051.790.100.00