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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:164.1
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:56
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.39%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14115.90.55%
15-15128.95.53%
14-16142.618.03%
13-17158.030.38%
12-18174.027.96%
11-19189.913.38%
10-20204.63.79%
9-21219.60.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida A&M (329.2)MEACH92-59W100%0.0
11-14Delaware St. (279.9)MEACH70-52W100%0.0
11-17Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10N66-53L0%0.0
11-18Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAN60-73W100%0.0
11-20Louisiana St. (85.2)SECN50-59L0%0.0
11-23Siena (226.0)MAACH72-44W100%0.0
11-29Northwestern (66.2)B10H60-76L0%0.0
12-3Tulane (174.9)CUSAA57-52L0%0.0
12-7Georgia (132.0)SECA56-68W100%0.0
12-10Savannah St. (214.3)MEACA45-65W100%0.0
12-19Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH65-54W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (98.0)ASunH59-65L0%0.0
12-29Fordham (243.2)A10A72-66L0%0.0
1-3Alabama (30.4)SECH48-73L0%0.0
1-7Duke (4.2)ACCH74-81L0%0.0
1-11North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA71-82W100%0.0
1-15Maryland (112.8)ACCA61-50L0%0.0
1-19Virginia (39.5)ACCH38-70L0%0.0
1-21Clemson (148.3)ACCA64-62L0%0.0
1-24Miami FL (64.4)ACCH49-64L0%0.0
1-29North Carolina (4.6)ACCA93-81L0%0.0
2-1Florida St. (21.9)ACCA68-54L0%0.0
2-4Boston College (248.2)ACCH51-47W100%0.0
2-9North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCH0-039%-3.1
2-15Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA0-052%0.5
2-18Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA0-018%-9.9
2-21Clemson (148.3)ACCH0-049%-0.2
2-25Maryland (112.8)ACCH0-064%3.9
2-29Boston College (248.2)ACCA0-067%4.8
3-3Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH0-075%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC26.1626.1236.9439.74-6.83-5.36
North Carolina St.ACC2.533.9273.9166.751.211.31
Wake ForestACC0.383.9147.8344.15-0.02-0.46
Boston CollegeACC2.463.8831.8227.15-0.90-1.77
MarylandACC2.473.8657.1449.590.35-0.03
ClemsonACC2.423.8647.6246.44-0.12-0.27
VirginiaACC2.522.3080.9576.001.561.20
Miami FLACC2.462.3063.1658.590.650.40
Virginia TechACC0.342.2756.5254.310.040.20
North CarolinaACC2.422.2786.3682.601.761.48
DukeACC2.372.2785.7182.531.691.48
Florida St.ACC2.422.2571.4370.731.040.93
AlabamaSEC2.431.8766.6768.030.810.67
Louisiana St.SEC2.321.8157.1455.800.330.21
GeorgiaSEC2.331.7847.6242.62-0.11-0.26
Delaware St.MEAC2.321.7837.5041.44-0.58-0.30
Florida A&MMEAC2.291.7620.0023.20-1.37-0.94
Savannah St.MEAC2.231.7355.0059.930.220.34
Alabama A&MSWAC2.281.7218.7528.23-1.42-0.75
FordhamA102.271.7238.1032.16-0.54-0.61
TulaneCUSA2.241.7060.0057.050.450.24
Saint Joseph'sA102.221.7060.8761.240.480.38
SienaMAAC2.221.7047.6247.17-0.11-0.10
MercerASun2.221.6969.5770.660.870.70
NorthwesternB102.221.6960.0053.600.440.12
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.221.6983.3380.661.481.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2638.8943.93-0.05-0.03
MassachusettsA100.300.2273.9168.580.140.08
North FloridaASun0.250.2045.8346.68-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.200.2056.5248.810.03-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.140.1960.0059.060.030.04
TempleA100.190.1977.2775.060.110.10
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1940.9139.56-0.03-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.1820.0019.96-0.17-0.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.1810.0014.93-0.16-0.12
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1734.7838.77-0.03-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.200.1769.5765.150.080.05
MississippiSEC0.200.1763.6456.710.060.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1720.8320.60-0.06-0.10
RichmondA100.140.1650.0048.490.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1639.1336.10-0.02-0.05
Seton HallBE0.190.1665.2263.740.060.05
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1669.5765.870.060.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1536.3638.48-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1525.0037.58-0.05-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1568.1869.680.040.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.1538.1042.78-0.05-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1533.3337.25-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.210.1472.7366.810.100.05
TulsaCUSA0.190.1460.8759.050.040.03
StetsonASun0.240.1431.8231.31-0.09-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.200.1447.3752.87-0.010.01
IonaMAAC0.190.1479.1780.100.110.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1450.0048.900.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.200.1417.3922.00-0.13-0.08
SyracuseBE0.150.1495.8392.010.130.12
DaytonA100.090.1460.8760.960.020.03
HarvardIvy0.190.1490.4887.910.150.11
FloridaSEC0.150.1482.6177.630.100.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1478.2672.340.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.1452.3852.860.000.01
KentuckySEC0.200.1495.8392.570.180.12
Penn St.B100.140.1441.6738.67-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.150.1445.4544.66-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.170.1345.0046.13-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1218.1822.22-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1230.0037.30-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1250.0058.160.000.02
Notre DameBE0.160.1265.2262.650.050.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1243.4843.31-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.160.1134.7832.08-0.05-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.1159.0957.930.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1177.2773.450.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1126.0928.60-0.07-0.05
PurdueB100.160.1165.2260.580.050.02
St. LouisA100.050.1177.2777.670.030.06
FurmanSC0.140.1147.6248.83-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.1172.7364.430.050.03
IowaB100.050.1154.1749.440.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.150.1134.7834.61-0.05-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1175.0075.780.050.06
NC GreensboroSC0.200.1134.7833.46-0.06-0.04
Michigan St.B100.200.1176.1972.910.100.05
Western KentuckySB0.180.1134.7834.48-0.06-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1016.6723.02-0.08-0.05
GramblingSWAC0.110.0915.0015.73-0.08-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0931.8242.13-0.04-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.0956.5253.100.020.01
UABCUSA0.110.0940.9139.82-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.160.0947.6246.46-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.160.0952.3852.870.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0942.1149.81-0.02-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.100.0947.6244.63-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.150.099.5213.19-0.12-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0968.0069.070.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.0956.5250.270.010.00
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0937.5041.54-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0825.0023.75-0.07-0.04
CharlotteA100.150.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.100.0860.0060.420.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0834.7837.24-0.03-0.02
XavierA100.140.0865.2263.740.040.02
WisconsinB100.150.0875.0073.970.080.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0872.2271.970.040.04
ColoradoP120.100.0866.6762.650.030.02
NebraskaB100.050.0852.3846.680.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.0833.3335.26-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.0866.6768.050.030.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0832.0035.39-0.03-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.100.0828.0028.91-0.04-0.03
BelmontASun0.090.0869.5773.280.040.04
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0848.0051.88-0.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0833.3337.16-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0869.5761.310.020.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0886.9685.460.070.06
George MasonCAA0.050.0876.0072.500.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.4540.70-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.084.005.26-0.09-0.07
DrexelCAA0.140.0879.1778.100.080.05
CampbellBSth0.050.0856.0055.650.010.01
ElonSC0.090.0850.0047.590.00-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.090.0868.1867.640.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.0847.8348.56-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.090.0860.8761.370.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0717.3924.41-0.08-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0719.0525.52-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0735.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0638.1037.86-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.110.0647.8350.65-0.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0671.4366.600.040.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.0619.0524.61-0.06-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0617.3919.81-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.5554.300.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0634.7833.43-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.0637.5038.52-0.02-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0621.7424.58-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.100.0668.1867.910.030.02
South FloridaBE0.100.0654.5548.600.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0627.2735.02-0.04-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0680.9577.380.060.03
RutgersBE0.100.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.100.0635.0039.29-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0659.0956.350.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0643.4840.28-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0666.6768.550.020.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0630.4331.43-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.068.3310.86-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0658.3359.980.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0636.8441.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0640.0041.30-0.00-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0657.1453.120.010.00
High PointBSth0.000.0631.8232.75-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.068.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0643.4843.82-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0635.0038.58-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.068.7013.10-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0644.0045.89-0.01-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.0654.5556.090.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9175.490.050.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0631.8225.98-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.069.5211.44-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.050.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0672.2263.190.000.01
CreightonMVC0.100.0587.5085.410.070.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0572.7368.280.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0566.6769.690.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.040.0560.0058.290.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.090.0554.5556.840.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0512.5013.44-0.07-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0051.730.000.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0382.6184.570.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.010.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0344.4441.71-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0318.1821.13-0.00-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0345.4545.70-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
MissouriB120.050.0391.3087.180.040.02
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.03-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.540.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.030.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0365.2263.790.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.000.0375.0076.000.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0345.4544.02-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0362.5061.500.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0321.7422.76-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00