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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:90.2
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:83
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-820.40.05%
21-926.60.25%
20-1033.31.33%
19-1142.13.74%
18-1253.38.25%
17-1365.914.49%
16-1479.319.06%
15-1594.220.44%
14-16109.516.08%
13-17126.59.46%
12-18142.34.62%
11-19159.71.84%
10-20177.20.30%
9-21192.40.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia (56.2)SECH80-73W100%0.0
11-18Alabama A&M (332.2)SWACH66-46W100%0.0
11-21IPFW (191.8)SumH78-69W100%0.0
11-27Marquette (103.6)BEN70-72L0%0.0
11-28Rider (196.1)MAACN61-54W100%0.0
11-30Rhode Island (65.3)A10N64-61W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (143.6)B10A58-66W100%0.0
12-6USC Upstate (181.0)ASunH54-59L0%0.0
12-15Appalachian St. (270.6)SBH70-57W100%0.0
12-20Vanderbilt (85.5)SECH0-055%1.5
12-23Dayton (73.0)A10A0-029%-6.5
12-30Charlotte (72.8)CUSAH0-059%2.6
1-3Notre Dame (71.7)ACCA0-016%-11.9
1-7Syracuse (76.1)ACCH0-051%0.3
1-10Wake Forest (162.0)ACCA0-044%-1.7
1-14Notre Dame (71.7)ACCH0-040%-2.9
1-17Pittsburgh (107.6)ACCA0-032%-5.4
1-22Virginia (7.1)ACCA0-04%-20.6
1-25Boston College (156.7)ACCH0-075%8.1
1-28Miami FL (23.0)ACCA0-012%-14.1
1-31North Carolina St. (45.3)ACCH0-044%-1.7
2-4Duke (4.7)ACCA0-03%-22.0
2-7Wake Forest (162.0)ACCH0-073%7.3
2-9Virginia Tech (216.1)ACCA0-054%1.3
2-14Florida St. (228.9)ACCH0-083%11.3
2-16Clemson (160.0)ACCH0-073%7.2
2-21North Carolina (11.7)ACCA0-06%-18.3
2-23Louisville (6.8)ACCH0-015%-12.2
2-28Clemson (160.0)ACCA0-044%-1.8
3-3North Carolina (11.7)ACCH0-021%-9.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC28.1326.0570.7347.6111.66-1.25
Notre DameACC0.003.8890.9171.200.001.64
ClemsonACC0.003.8766.6746.190.00-0.29
Wake ForestACC0.003.8550.0037.630.00-0.95
North CarolinaACC0.003.8570.0070.640.001.59
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.3280.0063.800.000.64
DukeACC0.002.32100.0087.210.001.72
Virginia TechACC0.862.3055.5638.000.10-0.55
Miami FLACC0.002.2990.0075.430.001.16
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2966.6742.450.00-0.35
Florida St.ACC0.002.2644.4433.68-0.00-0.74
LouisvilleACC0.002.26100.0085.410.001.60
VirginiaACC0.002.26100.0085.740.001.62
PittsburghACC0.002.2462.5053.380.000.15
SyracuseACC0.002.2466.6757.350.000.33
DaytonA100.461.7677.7869.530.260.69
CharlotteCUSA0.001.7555.5666.760.000.59
Alabama A&MSWAC5.561.750.0033.30-5.56-0.58
GeorgiaSEC5.561.7271.4361.422.380.39
VanderbiltSEC0.001.7275.0061.070.000.38
Appalachian St.SB5.561.7250.0034.310.00-0.54
MarquetteBE5.561.7050.0045.400.00-0.16
Rhode IslandA105.561.6971.4375.462.380.86
IPFWSum5.561.6766.6758.371.850.28
NorthwesternB105.561.6775.0046.222.78-0.13
RiderMAAC5.561.6750.0053.430.000.11
USC UpstateASun5.561.6762.5063.811.390.46
FloridaSEC0.000.2460.0064.780.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.350.2272.7352.480.160.01
MassachusettsA100.000.2060.0055.070.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1977.7871.340.000.08
Michigan St.B100.560.1970.0070.960.220.08
La SalleA100.000.1750.0049.920.00-0.00
PurdueB100.400.1772.7363.400.180.04
DavidsonA100.000.1787.5076.910.000.09
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1762.5064.900.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0094.460.000.15
JacksonvilleASun0.790.150.0013.85-0.79-0.11
Saint LouisA100.000.1455.5631.620.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1457.1447.630.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1437.5032.05-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.1450.0056.190.000.02
RutgersB100.000.1460.0035.390.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.310.1457.1445.530.04-0.01
ButlerBE0.310.1480.0072.430.190.06
MinnesotaB100.350.1477.7864.850.190.04
Ohio St.B100.310.1488.8984.020.240.09
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.660.000.03
StetsonASun0.400.1211.1129.36-0.31-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.120.0011.08-0.00-0.09
North FloridaASun0.310.1250.0061.230.000.03
FordhamA100.000.1228.5727.72-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.710.1122.2227.10-0.39-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.1133.3338.84-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.860.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1175.0064.650.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6755.560.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1177.7861.940.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1166.6751.450.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1133.3343.11-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1187.5064.670.000.03
WisconsinB100.310.1190.9188.300.250.08
IonaMAAC0.250.1166.6772.270.080.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1125.0037.01-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5037.71-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0937.5051.76-0.080.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0910.0040.34-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.0910.0018.39-0.25-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.0925.0042.82-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0975.0070.980.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0930.0028.28-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.620.090.0022.93-0.62-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0033.31-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0955.5639.850.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.400.0944.4449.79-0.04-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.310.090.0013.10-0.31-0.06
MarylandB100.310.0990.9167.920.250.03
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.110.000.04
TroySB0.350.0933.3341.99-0.12-0.01
FIUCUSA0.310.0850.0054.480.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.080.0039.43-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.0833.3340.42-0.12-0.02
NebraskaB100.350.0866.6742.930.12-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0850.0056.650.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0888.8964.060.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7866.040.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.740.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0830.0031.51-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0082.270.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0011.93-0.00-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.0810.0018.60-0.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0820.0037.42-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0067.550.000.03
ElonCAA0.310.0837.5048.77-0.08-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4440.58-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.250.0850.0050.920.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0870.0066.410.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.560.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0870.0066.510.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.94-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.720.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0814.2932.16-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0890.9154.340.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.250.0827.2737.98-0.11-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3331.09-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0833.3338.27-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0814.2945.16-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0850.0049.220.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.92-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0611.1130.96-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0644.4455.06-0.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.66-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.150.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.67-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0040.86-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1454.620.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1145.10-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.460.0675.0066.870.230.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.460.0655.5639.260.05-0.01
UCFAmer0.310.0650.0030.140.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.350.0655.5654.360.040.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0671.4372.840.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.850.000.01
BrownIvy0.310.0640.0034.21-0.06-0.02
KansasB120.600.0688.8969.900.470.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.0650.0041.450.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.350.0650.0032.740.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.400.0625.0029.22-0.20-0.02
HofstraCAA0.400.0677.7877.550.220.03
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0642.8656.16-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7173.700.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5055.430.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.46-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.45-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0017.65-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3351.71-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0537.5048.43-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0557.1456.000.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.350.0550.0051.980.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0520.0020.84-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0038.270.00-0.01
PennIvy0.250.0537.5032.38-0.06-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.16-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0550.0061.890.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0550.0046.750.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0011.59-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.540.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.53-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5037.27-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0528.5741.09-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1452.850.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0540.0050.27-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.62-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0021.16-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.050.0019.38-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0544.4469.77-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.73-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0033.140.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0590.0079.360.250.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0587.5080.890.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.050.009.06-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0537.5046.01-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0516.6725.01-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3647.60-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.73-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.250.0537.5051.38-0.060.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0550.0048.280.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0516.6729.59-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.470.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0522.2238.58-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.250.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0575.0077.280.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3332.44-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.400.0344.4447.41-0.04-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0058.490.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.400.030.0023.06-0.40-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.460.0344.4447.24-0.05-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.650.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.0336.3639.31-0.08-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.30-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.310.0355.5653.100.030.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
OhioMAC0.400.0350.0037.020.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.310.0360.0053.940.060.00
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.09-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.350.0344.4450.93-0.040.00
ColoradoP120.350.0366.6757.220.120.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.350.0390.0091.020.280.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6753.260.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.00-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.630.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.510.000.00
NJITind0.310.0336.3641.92-0.08-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.350.0337.5054.91-0.090.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0371.4367.660.130.01
USCP120.000.0360.0037.100.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0322.2245.74-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0370.0064.560.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.480.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7869.100.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.92-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0065.960.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0322.2230.95-0.14-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3363.180.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0375.0065.380.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.53-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0325.0037.29-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.73-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0371.4377.180.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.0320.0039.53-0.19-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.250.0342.8651.80-0.040.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5732.96-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3326.81-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.49-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0375.0061.240.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0054.960.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0377.7875.600.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0371.4361.160.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0054.040.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0340.0058.50-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.150.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8635.74-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.85-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.61-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.950.000.00