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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Georgia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:84.5
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:70
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-58.00.02%
22-611.60.10%
21-712.70.35%
20-819.81.01%
19-928.33.02%
18-1037.66.43%
17-1149.211.24%
16-1262.815.69%
15-1378.318.28%
14-1495.416.82%
13-15113.912.91%
12-16132.87.90%
11-17152.44.02%
10-18172.81.58%
9-19187.10.47%
8-20212.10.12%
7-21222.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Georgia (67.0)SECH80-73W100%0.0
11-18Alabama A&M (301.6)SWACH66-46W100%0.0
11-21IPFW (150.5)SumH78-69W100%0.0
11-27Marquette (171.2)BEN0-064%4.5
12-3Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-060%3.0
12-6USC Upstate (247.6)ASunH0-090%15.5
12-15Appalachian St. (313.9)SBH0-097%22.9
12-20Vanderbilt (143.7)SECH0-071%6.7
12-23Dayton (42.8)A10A0-028%-6.8
12-30Charlotte (61.7)CUSAH0-061%3.2
1-3Notre Dame (36.7)ACCA0-017%-11.5
1-7Syracuse (34.2)ACCH0-040%-3.1
1-10Wake Forest (143.5)ACCA0-050%0.1
1-14Notre Dame (36.7)ACCH0-036%-4.3
1-17Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCA0-039%-3.4
1-22Virginia (14.7)ACCA0-014%-13.2
1-25Boston College (154.6)ACCH0-074%7.6
1-28Miami FL (18.9)ACCA0-018%-11.2
1-31North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCH0-052%0.7
2-4Duke (2.5)ACCA0-05%-19.6
2-7Wake Forest (143.5)ACCH0-073%7.3
2-9Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCA0-068%5.7
2-14Florida St. (130.3)ACCH0-067%5.2
2-16Clemson (110.8)ACCH0-059%2.7
2-21North Carolina (11.8)ACCA0-013%-13.8
2-23Louisville (11.1)ACCH0-026%-7.6
2-28Clemson (110.8)ACCA0-035%-4.5
3-3North Carolina (11.8)ACCH0-029%-6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia TechACC36.1126.09100.0049.4336.11-0.30
Notre DameACC0.004.17100.0074.700.002.06
ClemsonACC0.004.1650.0050.990.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.004.1450.0041.850.00-0.67
North CarolinaACC0.004.13100.0072.860.001.89
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.50100.0059.580.000.48
DukeACC0.002.50100.0085.830.001.79
Virginia TechACC0.002.4766.6733.220.00-0.83
LouisvilleACC0.002.44100.0078.800.001.41
Florida St.ACC0.002.4433.3347.25-0.00-0.13
Miami FLACC0.002.44100.0073.220.001.13
Boston CollegeACC0.002.4450.0042.020.00-0.39
VirginiaACC0.002.43100.0075.340.001.23
SyracuseACC0.002.4175.0068.430.000.89
PittsburghACC0.002.4166.6750.430.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC16.671.880.0043.25-16.67-0.25
GeorgiaSEC16.671.85100.0060.2716.670.38
VanderbiltSEC0.001.85100.0048.510.00-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.001.85100.0071.090.000.78
Appalachian St.SB0.001.8533.3322.41-0.00-1.02
DaytonA104.171.8266.6769.571.390.71
MarquetteBE0.001.8233.3341.11-0.00-0.32
IPFWSum16.671.79100.0066.2716.670.58
NorthwesternB100.001.79100.0042.180.00-0.28
USC UpstateASun0.001.79100.0052.630.000.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.21100.0073.660.000.10
ProvidenceBE0.000.21100.0069.670.000.08
FloridaSEC0.000.2166.6767.200.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1850.0054.290.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.18100.0085.630.000.13
PurdueB100.000.18100.0060.550.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.160.0025.03-0.00-0.08
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0061.850.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.15100.0045.350.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1566.6740.400.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1550.0053.040.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.15100.0071.340.000.06
IowaB100.000.1550.0065.570.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1575.0060.410.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1566.6771.600.000.06
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.07-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0025.50-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0047.13-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0058.780.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1266.6755.980.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0041.91-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1250.0037.560.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.540.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0042.680.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.12100.0084.890.000.08
RichmondA100.000.1266.6767.450.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1266.6761.350.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3336.55-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1066.6746.620.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0018.48-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3336.99-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.10100.0072.860.000.04
LipscombASun0.000.100.0042.80-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.17-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3340.99-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.89-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0966.6734.100.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.27-0.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0064.500.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0062.070.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0925.0051.56-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0065.270.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0052.610.000.00
La SalleA100.000.09100.0053.840.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3345.85-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0032.48-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0065.140.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6752.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6765.320.000.03
TroySB2.780.090.0045.18-2.78-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0043.160.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6776.510.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0039.36-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.090.0043.18-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0067.570.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0067.100.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0047.170.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0034.71-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0925.0031.88-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
MichiganB100.000.09100.0064.370.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0933.3341.77-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0975.0071.100.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3345.63-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.44-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.97-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0044.810.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.15-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0042.57-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3349.33-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0037.22-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3332.78-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0031.810.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0061.500.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.850.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0042.47-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6768.980.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0675.0060.550.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3346.76-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.850.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0057.060.000.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.360.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3357.45-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0056.39-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0045.790.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0080.090.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.11-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.320.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0035.71-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.68-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0038.370.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0046.040.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.040.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0075.140.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0035.64-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.170.030.0033.98-4.17-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0069.300.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0087.190.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0018.23-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0034.55-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.97-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.07-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0056.270.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.60-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE2.780.0333.3364.76-0.930.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0325.0037.31-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.49-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0035.51-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.100.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6748.790.00-0.00