Georgia Tech

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	149.0
Current RPI:	149
Expected SOS:	112
Current SOS:	112
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	105
Expected OOC SOS:	314

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	149.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	79-61	W	100%
11-14	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	52-38	W	100%
11-22	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	N	54-36	W	100%
11-23	California (54.0)	P12	N	68-57	L	0%
11-25	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	N	65-56	W	100%
11-28	Illinois (40.0)	B10	A	75-62	L	0%
12-4	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	H	62-54	W	100%
12-8	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	73-66	W	100%
12-17	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	75-41	W	100%
12-22	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	73-41	W	100%
12-29	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	73-48	W	100%
1-2	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	74-58	W	100%
1-5	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	49-62	L	0%
1-9	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	83-70	L	0%
1-12	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	H	65-70	L	0%
1-17	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	73-57	L	0%
1-23	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	79-63	L	0%
1-26	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	H	82-62	W	100%
1-29	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	63-60	L	0%
2-3	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	H	66-60	W	100%
2-5	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	H	54-56	L	0%
2-9	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	54-64	W	100%
2-14	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	H	53-56	L	0%
2-16	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	56-57	W	100%
2-19	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	H	58-70	L	0%
2-24	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	82-54	L	0%
2-27	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	H	78-68	W	100%
3-3	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	H	57-70	L	0%
3-6	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	69-71	W	100%
3-9	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	74-72	L	0%
3-14	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	N	84-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgia Tech	ACC	26.19	26.19	46.72	46.72	-1.72	-1.72
North Carolina St.	ACC	4.05	4.05	68.75	68.75	1.52	1.52
Miami FL	ACC	4.04	4.04	83.87	83.87	2.74	2.74
Boston College	ACC	4.00	4.00	45.16	45.16	-0.39	-0.39
Clemson	ACC	4.00	4.00	37.93	37.93	-0.96	-0.96
North Carolina	ACC	3.97	3.97	67.74	67.74	1.41	1.41
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.95	3.95	40.00	40.00	-0.79	-0.79
Virginia	ACC	3.94	3.94	66.67	66.67	1.31	1.31
Wake Forest	ACC	3.89	3.89	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Maryland	ACC	2.49	2.49	66.67	66.67	0.83	0.83
Florida St.	ACC	2.49	2.49	53.12	53.12	0.16	0.16
Duke	ACC	2.40	2.40	83.87	83.87	1.63	1.63
The Citadel	SC	1.75	1.75	22.22	22.22	-0.97	-0.97
Presbyterian	BSth	1.69	1.69	17.86	17.86	-1.09	-1.09
Chattanooga	SC	1.67	1.67	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Tulane	CUSA	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Rice	CUSA	1.66	1.66	14.29	14.29	-1.19	-1.19
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	30.00	30.00	-0.65	-0.65
California	P12	1.61	1.61	63.33	63.33	0.43	0.43
Fordham	A10	1.61	1.61	23.33	23.33	-0.86	-0.86
Georgia	SEC	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
St. Mary's	WCC	1.61	1.61	83.87	83.87	1.09	1.09
NC Greensboro	SC	0.29	0.29	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
Furman	SC	0.22	0.22	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
Wofford	SC	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	93.75	93.75	0.13	0.13
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01