Virginia Tech

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	177.0
Current RPI:	177
Expected SOS:	83
Current SOS:	83
Current Record:	13-19
Expected Record:	13-19
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	143
Expected OOC SOS:	256

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-19	177.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	80-62	W	100%
11-12	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	H	69-50	W	100%
11-15	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	95-80	W	100%
11-19	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	87-96	W	100%
11-23	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	87-76	W	100%
11-27	Iowa (79.0)	B10	H	95-79	W	100%
12-1	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	81-71	W	100%
12-8	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	68-67	L	0%
12-10	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	70-49	W	100%
12-15	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	73-78	L	0%
12-22	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	N	66-65	W	100%
12-23	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	N	88-52	L	0%
12-29	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	97-71	L	0%
1-5	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	94-71	L	0%
1-9	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	H	75-86	L	0%
1-12	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	A	65-70	W	100%
1-19	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	H	66-65	W	100%
1-24	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	H	58-74	L	0%
1-27	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	77-70	L	0%
1-30	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	64-73	L	0%
2-2	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	72-60	L	0%
2-7	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	H	55-60	L	0%
2-9	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	H	54-64	L	0%
2-12	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	73-55	L	0%
2-16	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	90-86	L	0%
2-21	Duke (1.0)	ACC	H	56-88	L	0%
2-24	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	H	80-70	W	100%
2-27	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	76-58	L	0%
3-2	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	H	69-61	W	100%
3-5	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	85-57	L	0%
3-10	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	90-79	L	0%
3-14	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	N	80-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Virginia Tech	ACC	26.18	26.18	35.51	35.51	-7.59	-7.59
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.96	3.96	68.75	68.75	1.48	1.48
Maryland	ACC	3.91	3.91	62.50	62.50	0.98	0.98
Miami FL	ACC	3.85	3.85	80.65	80.65	2.36	2.36
Wake Forest	ACC	3.85	3.85	41.38	41.38	-0.66	-0.66
Virginia	ACC	3.83	3.83	63.33	63.33	1.02	1.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	3.82	3.82	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Duke	ACC	3.82	3.82	83.33	83.33	2.55	2.55
Clemson	ACC	3.80	3.80	41.38	41.38	-0.65	-0.65
North Carolina	ACC	2.45	2.45	68.75	68.75	0.92	0.92
Boston College	ACC	2.43	2.43	46.88	46.88	-0.15	-0.15
Florida St.	ACC	2.41	2.41	56.25	56.25	0.30	0.30
Georgia Southern	SC	1.74	1.74	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
NC Greensboro	SC	1.74	1.74	25.00	25.00	-0.87	-0.87
Appalachian St.	SC	1.67	1.67	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	18.52	18.52	-1.05	-1.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
West Virginia	B12	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Bradley	MVC	1.62	1.62	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.59	1.59	40.74	40.74	-0.29	-0.29
Brigham Young	WCC	1.59	1.59	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.59	1.59	30.00	30.00	-0.63	-0.63
Colorado St.	MWC	1.56	1.56	73.33	73.33	0.73	0.73
Iowa	B10	1.56	1.56	65.62	65.62	0.49	0.49
Rhode Island	A10	1.56	1.56	28.57	28.57	-0.67	-0.67
Furman	SC	0.26	0.26	17.24	17.24	-0.17	-0.17
Davidson	SC	0.26	0.26	78.12	78.12	0.14	0.14
Elon	SC	0.24	0.24	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.23	0.23	21.43	21.43	-0.13	-0.13
Chattanooga	SC	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wofford	SC	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	93.75	93.75	0.13	0.13
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00