live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:246.0
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:83
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22246.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH63-64L0%0.0
11-12West Virginia (88.0)B12H87-82W100%0.0
11-15Western Carolina (221.0)SCH79-61W100%0.0
11-18VMI (211.0)BSthH105-92W100%0.0
11-22Michigan St. (18.0)B10N96-77L0%0.0
11-23Seton Hall (128.0)BEN68-67L0%0.0
11-26Furman (339.0)SCH75-54W100%0.0
11-29Radford (240.0)BSthH81-56W100%0.0
12-3Winthrop (168.0)BSthH81-63W100%0.0
12-8Miami FL (110.0)ACCA60-61W100%0.0
12-21VCU (13.0)A10N82-52L0%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH52-55L0%0.0
12-31Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH82-66W100%0.0
1-7Syracuse (16.0)ACCH52-72L0%0.0
1-11Boston College (207.0)ACCH59-62L0%0.0
1-15Clemson (79.0)ACCH49-56L0%0.0
1-19Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA70-63L0%0.0
1-22Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH77-83L0%0.0
1-25Virginia (8.0)ACCA65-45L0%0.0
1-29Boston College (207.0)ACCA76-52L0%0.0
2-1Maryland (78.0)ACCH60-80L0%0.0
2-5Florida St. (54.0)ACCA70-50L0%0.0
2-8Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA62-57L0%0.0
2-15Miami FL (110.0)ACCH52-45W100%0.0
2-18Virginia (8.0)ACCH53-57L0%0.0
2-22North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH64-71L0%0.0
2-25Duke (9.0)ACCA66-48L0%0.0
3-1North Carolina (25.0)ACCH56-60L0%0.0
3-4Maryland (78.0)ACCA64-47L0%0.0
3-8Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA62-51L0%0.0
3-12Miami FL (110.0)ACCN57-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.0926.0921.3821.38-14.93-14.93
Miami FLACC5.335.3353.3353.330.360.36
VirginiaACC3.853.8581.2581.252.412.41
Boston CollegeACC3.773.7717.2417.24-2.47-2.47
MarylandACC3.773.7748.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Florida St.ACC2.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
North Carolina St.ACC2.362.3660.6160.610.500.50
PittsburghACC2.282.2872.7372.731.041.04
ClemsonACC2.262.2661.2961.290.510.51
Wake ForestACC2.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC2.262.2646.8846.88-0.14-0.14
DukeACC2.262.2675.7675.761.161.16
SyracuseACC2.262.2683.8783.871.531.53
Notre DameACC2.232.2345.1645.16-0.22-0.22
North CarolinaACC2.232.2370.9770.970.940.94
UNC GreensboroSC1.771.7735.7135.71-0.51-0.51
VCUA101.761.7675.7675.760.910.91
VMIBSth1.741.7457.6957.690.270.27
Western CarolinaSC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
WinthropBSth1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
RadfordBSth1.701.7062.0762.070.410.41
FurmanSC1.691.6926.9226.92-0.78-0.78
USC UpstateASun1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Michigan St.B101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
Seton HallBE1.611.6148.4848.48-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB121.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
DavidsonSC0.290.2961.2961.290.070.07
LibertyBSth0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
Georgia SouthernSC0.270.2738.7138.71-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.270.2713.3313.33-0.20-0.20
The CitadelSC0.250.2513.7913.79-0.18-0.18
UNC AshevilleBSth0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
High PointBSth0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
ElonSC0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.190.1919.2319.23-0.12-0.12
ProvidenceBE0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
CampbellBSth0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
StetsonASun0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
TexasB120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00