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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:212.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:299
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1287.00.01%
18-13103.80.09%
17-14121.30.30%
16-15136.61.40%
15-16153.83.91%
14-17172.510.44%
13-18191.617.61%
12-19209.623.07%
11-20227.921.85%
10-21244.613.55%
9-22261.45.68%
8-23273.31.75%
7-24285.10.31%
6-25300.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACH71-46W100%0.0
11-19Liberty (322.3)BSthH73-63W100%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (261.0)SBH63-65L0%0.0
11-25Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCN54-73L0%0.0
11-26Miami OH (274.9)MACN63-78W100%0.0
11-30Morgan St. (303.9)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
12-3Penn St. (101.0)B10A61-58L0%0.0
12-7Radford (196.6)BSthH66-68L0%0.0
12-14Alabama A&M (330.9)SWACH65-55W100%0.0
12-20The Citadel (315.9)SCH0-085%12.2
12-22VMI (270.2)SCH0-079%9.5
12-27Presbyterian (340.7)BSthH0-097%22.6
12-30West Virginia (25.6)B12A0-06%-18.3
1-3Syracuse (71.5)ACCH0-031%-5.7
1-6Florida St. (207.5)ACCA0-034%-4.7
1-13Louisville (7.1)ACCA0-01%-26.4
1-18North Carolina (11.6)ACCA0-02%-23.6
1-22Notre Dame (68.4)ACCH0-022%-8.9
1-25Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-08%-16.5
1-27Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCH0-045%-1.4
1-31Wake Forest (156.3)ACCA0-027%-7.4
2-3Syracuse (71.5)ACCA0-011%-14.5
2-7Florida St. (207.5)ACCH0-063%4.0
2-9Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCH0-045%-1.4
2-14Clemson (159.7)ACCA0-027%-7.3
2-18Miami FL (23.0)ACCA0-05%-19.4
2-21North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA0-08%-16.2
2-25Duke (4.6)ACCH0-06%-18.1
2-28Virginia (7.3)ACCA0-02%-25.3
3-2Boston College (153.8)ACCH0-057%2.2
3-7Miami FL (23.0)ACCH0-018%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC27.8026.0543.5931.27-3.56-9.76
Florida St.ACC0.003.7850.0036.580.00-1.01
Miami FLACC0.003.7590.0074.630.001.85
SyracuseACC0.003.7366.6756.350.000.47
VirginiaACC0.003.72100.0084.600.002.58
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2466.6742.080.00-0.35
Georgia TechACC0.812.2277.7851.240.450.06
DukeACC0.002.22100.0086.920.001.64
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2281.8263.190.000.59
LouisvilleACC0.002.22100.0084.880.001.55
PittsburghACC0.002.2266.6752.270.000.10
Wake ForestACC0.002.1950.0036.820.00-0.58
ClemsonACC0.002.1966.6744.710.00-0.23
Notre DameACC0.002.1790.9171.700.000.94
North CarolinaACC0.002.1670.0070.760.000.90
LibertyBSth6.091.7828.5736.11-2.61-0.50
PresbyterianBSth0.001.760.008.86-0.00-1.45
The CitadelSC0.001.7516.6731.48-0.00-0.65
Morgan St.MEAC6.431.7520.0037.23-3.86-0.45
RadfordBSth5.561.7342.8654.17-0.790.14
VMISC0.001.7333.3339.93-0.00-0.35
West VirginiaB120.001.7090.0066.040.000.54
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.561.6745.4545.81-0.51-0.14
Miami OHMAC5.901.6433.3329.48-1.97-0.67
Alabama A&MSWAC5.561.640.0033.01-5.56-0.56
Appalachian St.SB5.561.6428.5731.84-2.38-0.60
Northern IowaMVC5.811.6488.8977.304.520.90
Penn St.B105.811.6490.0052.314.650.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.2377.7876.240.000.12
FurmanSC0.690.2125.0029.59-0.35-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.280.2020.0026.57-0.17-0.10
WinthropBSth0.000.2028.5747.31-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.2033.3331.58-0.00-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.600.1860.0064.610.120.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1822.2237.75-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1762.5056.410.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1714.2945.19-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.350.1630.0043.91-0.14-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.600.1640.0050.32-0.120.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1672.7353.260.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1660.0064.930.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1525.0044.59-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1557.1470.590.000.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1437.5050.40-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.1490.9167.660.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.1350.0056.340.000.02
RutgersB100.000.1360.0035.070.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1320.0029.81-0.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.250.1360.0056.560.050.02
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.590.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1390.0084.680.000.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1318.1828.02-0.00-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1244.4451.58-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1271.4363.890.000.03
MercerSC0.000.1237.5042.45-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1220.0041.46-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.230.1120.0021.58-0.14-0.06
DaytonA100.740.1177.7870.120.410.04
George WashingtonA100.250.1166.6766.340.080.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1150.0044.900.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1172.7373.150.000.05
North FloridaASun0.620.1144.4456.91-0.070.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1172.7367.750.000.04
RichmondA100.620.1155.5657.090.070.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.110.0036.67-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.250.1155.5648.240.03-0.00
NorthwesternB100.560.1160.0040.620.11-0.02
VCUA100.510.1170.0071.420.200.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0014.79-0.00-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1040.0046.73-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1022.2237.50-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1060.0055.630.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1077.7864.730.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.008.88-0.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0918.1844.62-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.350.0950.0053.700.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.460.0875.0067.580.230.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0820.0034.08-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.350.0870.0060.790.140.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.580.080.0023.15-0.58-0.04
OhioMAC0.350.0842.8638.11-0.05-0.02
TCUB120.350.08100.0066.180.350.03
EvansvilleMVC0.280.0877.7871.110.150.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0885.7172.940.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0887.5077.020.000.04
ElonCAA0.530.0837.5047.87-0.13-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0012.36-0.00-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0850.0032.620.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.0844.4470.08-0.030.03
BucknellPat0.480.0840.0036.29-0.10-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0037.13-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.250.0828.5731.23-0.11-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0857.1453.130.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.930.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.630.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0860.0037.220.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0050.07-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.250.0825.0038.92-0.13-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.550.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0837.5037.96-0.06-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6743.780.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.730.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0844.4444.78-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0887.5065.040.000.02
VillanovaBE0.230.08100.0082.080.230.05
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.390.000.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0028.26-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.01-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.460.0655.5638.600.05-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0662.5066.700.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
HofstraCAA0.350.0577.7878.540.190.03
JacksonvilleASun0.350.0510.0018.58-0.28-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0533.3332.09-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0069.120.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0520.0019.99-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4363.410.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0566.6764.310.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3332.85-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.280.0557.1456.900.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4361.370.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.960.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0571.4359.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0537.5040.20-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.250.0550.0052.800.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0560.0049.500.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0587.5085.320.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.960.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.87-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0520.0028.20-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.280.0525.0025.93-0.14-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0580.0064.110.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0039.44-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0560.0059.420.000.01
USCP120.250.0560.0036.120.05-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.870.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.0066.690.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0043.08-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0057.510.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8655.64-0.000.01
FordhamA100.480.0528.5728.26-0.21-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0575.0078.480.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0588.8963.800.000.01
KansasB120.000.0588.8969.390.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.67-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0094.790.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3327.70-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.340.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0566.6757.860.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.660.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0065.410.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0510.0027.42-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.860.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0588.8955.910.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.940.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.460.0344.4447.53-0.05-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
DelawareCAA0.350.030.007.39-0.35-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.350.0322.2240.44-0.19-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.350.0366.6759.460.120.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5051.81-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.350.0325.0028.68-0.17-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
DenverSum0.280.0350.0054.230.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
HoustonAmer0.250.0371.4348.860.11-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.08-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0032.77-0.14-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.100.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0362.5054.970.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0316.6727.56-0.19-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.0366.6777.690.090.01
TowsonCAA0.250.0366.6751.430.080.00
UC IrvineBW0.250.0337.5046.78-0.06-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.10-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2241.92-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.280.0360.0057.600.060.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.680.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.550.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.230.0344.4448.88-0.03-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.17-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0069.820.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.51-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2930.74-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.830.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0350.0062.270.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
UMBCAE0.230.0310.0020.91-0.19-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00