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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:128.4
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:68
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1168.00.01%
19-1275.10.17%
18-1388.12.29%
17-14101.611.02%
16-15116.927.00%
15-16132.534.51%
14-17148.120.62%
13-18163.54.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama St. (293.4)SWACH82-85L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCH71-62W100%0.0
11-21VMI (333.9)SCH76-52W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina A&T (334.7)MEACH90-60W100%0.0
11-27Iowa St. (17.2)B12N99-77L0%0.0
11-28UAB (87.4)CUSAN77-82W100%0.0
12-1Northwestern (114.5)B10H79-81L0%0.0
12-5Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.7)SWACH80-45W100%0.0
12-9Radford (169.8)BSthA65-74W100%0.0
12-13Lamar (330.8)SlndH88-53W100%0.0
12-19Grambling St. (344.6)SWACH87-52W100%0.0
12-22Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10N62-79L0%0.0
12-30West Virginia (8.6)B12H63-88L0%0.0
1-2North Carolina St. (116.7)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
1-4Virginia (6.1)ACCH70-68W100%0.0
1-9Duke (20.7)ACCA82-58L0%0.0
1-13Wake Forest (126.2)ACCH93-91W100%0.0
1-16Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCA77-78W100%0.0
1-20Notre Dame (40.3)ACCA83-81L0%0.0
1-24North Carolina (10.7)ACCH70-75L0%0.0
1-27Louisville (15.9)ACCH83-91L0%0.0
1-31Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCA90-71L0%0.0
2-2Syracuse (52.7)ACCA68-60L0%0.0
2-6Clemson (100.4)ACCH60-57W100%0.0
2-9Virginia (6.1)ACCA0-07%-15.8
2-17Miami FL (14.2)ACCA0-08%-15.0
2-20Florida St. (46.9)ACCH0-040%-2.7
2-23Boston College (234.2)ACCA0-069%5.4
2-28Wake Forest (126.2)ACCA0-046%-1.0
3-2Pittsburgh (45.4)ACCH0-035%-4.3
3-5Miami FL (14.2)ACCH0-022%-8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.1226.0646.2343.51-1.97-3.38
VirginiaACC2.453.7886.3680.321.782.29
Miami FLACC0.313.7680.9574.840.191.87
Wake ForestACC2.443.7345.4541.58-0.22-0.63
PittsburghACC2.403.7375.0067.151.201.28
LouisvilleACC2.402.2381.8276.981.531.20
Notre DameACC2.402.2368.1864.670.870.65
Georgia TechACC2.452.2057.1454.570.350.20
SyracuseACC2.452.2065.2261.320.750.50
North Carolina St.ACC2.412.2052.1750.740.100.03
ClemsonACC2.402.2063.6462.280.660.54
DukeACC2.402.2072.7369.061.090.84
Florida St.ACC0.412.2069.5765.060.160.66
North CarolinaACC2.442.2081.8277.981.551.23
Boston CollegeACC0.362.1730.4326.34-0.14-1.03
Alabama St.SWAC2.271.7826.3233.40-1.08-0.59
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.241.7621.7424.39-1.26-0.90
Grambling St.SWAC2.221.7516.6720.80-1.48-1.02
West VirginiaB122.171.7281.8278.871.380.99
Iowa St.B122.171.6972.7369.070.990.64
UABCUSA2.181.6786.3682.171.581.07
Jacksonville St.OVC2.181.6726.0925.24-1.04-0.83
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.141.6430.4334.28-0.84-0.52
NorthwesternB102.131.6465.2262.210.650.40
LamarSlnd2.081.6133.3333.24-0.69-0.54
RadfordBSth2.081.6152.3853.190.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA102.081.6181.8278.161.330.91
VMISC2.081.6116.6718.15-1.39-1.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.240.2245.4554.10-0.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.2028.5731.90-0.10-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.209.0917.11-0.16-0.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.2038.8945.64-0.05-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.1916.6720.14-0.16-0.12
Ohio St.B100.200.1758.3354.170.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1736.8438.40-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1747.6252.67-0.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.210.1765.0066.790.060.06
FloridaSEC0.130.1665.2266.080.040.05
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1486.3685.030.140.10
WoffordSC0.190.1440.9145.38-0.04-0.01
WinthropBSth0.190.1465.0063.440.060.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1460.0060.080.040.03
Penn St.B100.150.1450.0046.740.00-0.01
VCUA100.190.1373.9173.910.090.06
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1334.7840.92-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.180.1379.1774.030.100.06
NebraskaB100.090.1354.1751.820.010.00
Kansas St.B120.180.1360.8758.450.040.02
TexasB120.140.1369.5762.640.050.03
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1347.8344.37-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.130.1359.0953.130.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1228.5731.37-0.07-0.04
SamfordSC0.140.1239.1341.32-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.150.1234.7836.50-0.04-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.1150.0052.340.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1115.0027.27-0.10-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.180.114.357.73-0.17-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1130.4335.11-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.090.1179.1776.550.050.06
CornellIvy0.140.1142.1140.20-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.1160.0057.950.020.02
DuquesneA100.100.1163.6456.370.030.01
RutgersB100.090.1121.7420.35-0.05-0.06
IllinoisB100.140.1147.8344.55-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.1181.8280.120.090.06
La SalleA100.050.1120.0020.47-0.03-0.06
RichmondA100.140.1154.5554.550.010.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1186.9686.370.100.08
BuffaloMAC0.180.1059.0958.900.030.02
BaylorB120.090.1072.7366.500.040.03
KansasB120.090.1081.8277.570.060.06
OklahomaB120.140.1086.3682.100.100.07
TCUB120.090.1043.4837.22-0.01-0.03
Michigan St.B100.130.1083.3383.010.090.07
MercerSC0.110.0972.7370.750.050.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.0959.0959.440.030.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0928.5729.64-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0945.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0970.5975.550.040.05
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0925.0026.87-0.07-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0921.0527.81-0.06-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0969.5767.220.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0966.6762.630.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0814.2915.47-0.04-0.06
High PointBSth0.090.0855.0057.470.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0863.6459.380.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0852.0050.260.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.130.0859.0953.030.020.00
ElonCAA0.140.0852.1750.430.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.140.0854.1752.340.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0822.7327.18-0.02-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0840.9140.64-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0820.0026.76-0.03-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0825.0033.22-0.04-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.0822.7323.25-0.07-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0852.1755.930.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0831.8236.12-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0854.5558.150.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0834.7834.21-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0878.2674.360.030.04
LehighPat0.090.0833.3337.25-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0845.4551.34-0.010.00
LSUSEC0.090.0865.2260.280.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0850.0051.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0845.8346.65-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0872.2274.710.020.04
UCLAP120.090.0856.5253.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0872.7368.540.020.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0845.4546.29-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.840.040.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0840.9139.32-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.130.0826.0927.82-0.06-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.090.0831.8232.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0855.0052.290.010.00
MarylandB100.130.0887.5083.690.100.05
St. BonaventureA100.090.0870.0069.100.040.03
MissouriSEC0.130.0834.7830.36-0.04-0.03
FurmanSC0.110.0652.1753.310.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0652.6350.230.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0656.2556.100.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0617.6529.25-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.37-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.069.5213.53-0.08-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0614.2917.91-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.71-0.04-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0665.2266.160.010.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0627.7834.49-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0645.4542.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.02-0.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0638.1040.73-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0666.6766.540.010.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0668.1866.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0569.5768.500.040.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0566.6767.270.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0550.0049.850.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0517.3920.65-0.06-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.5012.85-0.03-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0565.2262.900.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0563.6460.930.000.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0540.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0521.0523.59-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0557.8961.750.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0571.4369.410.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0568.0067.970.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0535.0035.99-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0524.0026.41-0.02-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0513.6413.63-0.07-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0556.5260.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0591.3084.380.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0515.0022.35-0.06-0.03
DePaulBE0.040.0534.7834.45-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0561.9056.690.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0554.1750.940.010.00
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0525.0025.47-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0563.6462.150.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0533.3335.08-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0556.5262.780.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.8320.12-0.05-0.03
OhioMAC0.040.0561.9059.420.010.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0547.6244.99-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0545.4546.10-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0566.6765.220.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0552.1753.070.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0521.7423.40-0.05-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0573.9171.570.040.02
MichiganB100.040.0569.5766.200.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0554.1755.090.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0556.5256.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0538.1033.40-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0563.6459.810.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0578.2678.040.050.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0533.3332.33-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0560.8755.860.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0570.8370.930.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0530.4331.18-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.440.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.650.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.14-0.01-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.45-0.03-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.510.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.66-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.260.010.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.800.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.380.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0350.0051.170.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.71-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.6415.80-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0357.1459.450.010.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0368.1865.290.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.63-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.780.030.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0350.0053.300.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.99-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
ToledoMAC0.040.0359.0960.070.010.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.930.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.650.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0313.0413.54-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.300.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0372.7372.450.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0386.3682.350.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0321.7423.31-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0335.0038.53-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0334.7837.18-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0334.7834.00-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0340.9143.72-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0355.0053.160.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.130.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0070.940.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0334.7837.06-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0326.0923.73-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.87-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0372.7371.610.000.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.620.020.01
ArmyPat0.040.0352.1753.360.000.00
HawaiiBW0.040.0384.2181.680.030.02