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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:64.9
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:145
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-514.90.11%
24-619.90.58%
23-724.52.06%
22-830.75.21%
21-939.011.30%
20-1049.317.70%
19-1161.220.71%
18-1274.018.98%
17-1387.813.01%
16-14102.96.90%
15-15118.42.58%
14-16136.50.65%
13-17154.70.18%
12-18176.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maine (310.8)AEH80-67W100%0.0
11-15High Point (211.4)BSthH99-73W100%0.0
11-19VMI (316.6)SCH88-72W100%0.0
11-24New Mexico (84.5)MWCN92-72W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M (42.0)SECN65-68L0%0.0
11-27Nebraska (94.1)B10N53-66W100%0.0
11-30Michigan (45.6)B10A70-73W100%0.0
12-7Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACH0-098%24.7
12-11Mississippi (134.5)SECH0-083%11.4
12-17The Citadel (312.2)SCH0-099%27.6
12-20Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthH0-097%23.3
12-28UMBC (212.5)AEH0-095%19.5
12-31Duke (8.6)ACCH0-027%-7.3
1-4North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-056%1.8
1-7Florida St. (50.8)ACCA0-036%-4.2
1-10Syracuse (39.6)ACCH0-043%-2.2
1-14Notre Dame (26.0)ACCH0-041%-2.9
1-18Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-082%11.2
1-22Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-044%-1.9
1-26North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-012%-14.3
1-29Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-093%18.0
2-1Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-010%-15.4
2-8Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-028%-6.8
2-12Virginia (4.7)ACCH0-022%-9.2
2-14Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-045%-1.4
2-18Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-015%-12.5
2-21Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-064%4.2
2-25Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-084%11.8
2-27Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-048%-0.6
3-4Wake Forest (59.3)ACCH0-066%4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC29.1226.0683.8759.4519.724.93
ClemsonACC1.193.9166.6753.980.400.31
Boston CollegeACC0.003.8850.0028.340.00-1.68
Miami FLACC0.003.8571.4366.020.001.23
VirginiaACC0.003.85100.0082.450.002.50
Florida St.ACC0.002.3385.7162.360.000.58
DukeACC0.002.3087.5078.870.001.33
Wake ForestACC0.002.2971.4353.000.000.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2771.4350.790.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.002.2785.7175.650.001.16
North CarolinaACC0.002.2785.7179.730.001.35
PittsburghACC0.002.2785.7155.580.000.25
Georgia TechACC0.002.2766.6740.490.00-0.43
Notre DameACC0.002.27100.0075.530.001.16
SyracuseACC0.002.2766.6770.570.000.93
High PointBSth7.141.7960.0053.151.430.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.001.7825.0040.17-0.00-0.35
UMBCAE0.001.7880.0057.270.000.26
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.780.0035.43-0.00-0.52
NebraskaB107.141.7860.0045.171.43-0.17
The CitadelSC0.001.7640.0028.01-0.00-0.77
VMISC7.141.760.0021.96-7.14-0.99
MaineAE7.141.7620.0026.49-4.29-0.83
MichiganB107.141.7583.3368.744.760.66
MississippiSEC0.001.6971.4346.970.00-0.10
Texas A&MSEC7.141.6960.0064.931.430.51
New MexicoMWC7.141.6783.3360.694.760.36
UNC GreensboroSC0.600.2366.6758.420.200.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2120.0048.38-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.710.2133.3336.31-0.24-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2116.6718.96-0.00-0.13
WoffordSC0.000.200.0033.58-0.00-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.200.0027.77-0.00-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.510.19100.0080.780.510.12
CampbellBSth0.710.1825.0033.54-0.36-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.710.1833.3327.13-0.24-0.08
MercerSC0.000.1850.0053.050.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.1712.5022.55-0.00-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.000.1716.6733.82-0.00-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1766.6754.380.000.01
IowaB100.000.1742.8644.33-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
LongwoodBSth0.600.1525.0024.66-0.30-0.08
WinthropBSth0.000.1560.0070.500.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1566.6769.810.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.1520.0049.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.1557.1455.810.000.02
RichmondA100.710.1457.1448.600.10-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.1466.6756.020.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1485.7172.660.000.06
NorthwesternB100.000.1471.4366.220.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1450.0061.590.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1462.5043.960.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1471.4356.280.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.1457.1442.660.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1483.3375.060.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.1475.0073.840.000.06
KentuckySEC0.000.14100.0086.250.000.10
TennesseeSEC0.000.1425.0034.47-0.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1483.3355.200.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1250.0064.840.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
AlbanyAE0.000.1250.0060.380.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.1242.8640.94-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.1250.0057.480.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1225.0040.81-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.1262.5071.630.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0024.32-0.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.1171.4374.450.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.510.0925.0053.29-0.260.01
DaytonA101.110.0966.6772.440.370.04
HowardMEAC0.510.090.0038.26-0.51-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0983.3361.490.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0054.490.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0041.31-0.00-0.01
UCLAP121.190.08100.0083.551.190.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8642.47-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0076.650.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0885.7156.490.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0885.7165.670.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0814.2931.71-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0871.4349.590.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0833.3364.14-0.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.600.0850.0053.530.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0023.47-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0883.3362.080.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.600.0628.5743.62-0.26-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.600.0616.6737.09-0.40-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0640.0067.95-0.120.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0612.5048.98-0.38-0.00
AmericanPat0.600.0616.6735.65-0.40-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.110.0616.6743.29-0.74-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.0671.4368.100.220.02
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0640.0057.97-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0540.0050.91-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0542.8647.69-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0055.850.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0056.260.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.050.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.510.0571.4363.090.220.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0571.4371.570.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0514.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0542.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.510.0557.1469.300.070.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0540.0055.44-0.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.600.0350.0061.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.030.0021.30-0.60-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.600.0340.0037.65-0.12-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.510.030.0038.51-0.51-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.510.0314.2929.81-0.36-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.600.0383.3357.990.400.00
NortheasternCAA0.600.0357.1448.240.09-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.600.030.0034.01-0.60-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
USCP120.600.03100.0075.380.600.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
IUPUISum0.510.0328.5747.72-0.22-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01