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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:48.0
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:65
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1048.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Maine (322.0)AEH80-67W100%0.0
11-15High Point (236.0)BSthH99-73W100%0.0
11-19VMI (329.0)SCH88-72W100%0.0
11-24New Mexico (86.0)MWCN92-72W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M (92.0)SECN65-68L0%0.0
11-27Nebraska (107.0)B10N53-66W100%0.0
11-30Michigan (25.0)B10A70-73W100%0.0
12-7Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH75-59W100%0.0
12-11Mississippi (77.0)SECH80-75W100%0.0
12-17The Citadel (282.0)SCH113-71W100%0.0
12-20Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH87-59W100%0.0
12-28UMBC (165.0)AEH87-70W100%0.0
12-31Duke (6.0)ACCH89-75W100%0.0
1-4North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA104-78L0%0.0
1-7Florida St. (14.0)ACCA93-78L0%0.0
1-10Syracuse (84.0)ACCH83-73W100%0.0
1-14Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH71-76L0%0.0
1-18Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH62-61W100%0.0
1-22Clemson (69.0)ACCA81-82W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina (5.0)ACCA91-72L0%0.0
1-29Boston College (219.0)ACCH85-79W100%0.0
2-1Virginia (18.0)ACCA71-48L0%0.0
2-8Miami FL (41.0)ACCA74-68L0%0.0
2-12Virginia (18.0)ACCH80-78W100%0.0
2-14Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA63-66W100%0.0
2-18Louisville (7.0)ACCA94-90L0%0.0
2-21Clemson (69.0)ACCH71-70W100%0.0
2-25Boston College (219.0)ACCA75-91W100%0.0
2-27Miami FL (41.0)ACCH66-61W100%0.0
3-4Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH84-89L0%0.0
3-8Wake Forest (38.0)ACCN99-90W100%0.0
3-9Florida St. (14.0)ACCN74-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.0826.0867.6967.699.239.23
ClemsonACC3.783.7856.6756.670.500.50
Florida St.ACC3.753.7574.1974.191.821.82
Wake ForestACC3.753.7560.0060.000.750.75
Boston CollegeACC3.733.7330.0030.00-1.49-1.49
Miami FLACC3.703.7066.6766.671.231.23
VirginiaACC3.683.6870.0070.001.471.47
DukeACC2.342.3479.4179.411.371.37
Notre DameACC2.292.2972.7372.731.041.04
PittsburghACC2.222.2250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC2.222.2245.1645.16-0.21-0.21
North CarolinaACC2.212.2178.1278.121.241.24
SyracuseACC2.192.1958.0658.060.350.35
Georgia TechACC2.162.1653.3353.330.140.14
LouisvilleACC2.162.1674.1974.191.051.05
Charleston SouthernBSth1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
High PointBSth1.671.6744.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UMBCAE1.661.6659.2659.260.310.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
NebraskaB101.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
The CitadelSC1.651.6531.0331.03-0.62-0.62
VMISC1.641.6414.8114.81-1.16-1.16
MaineAE1.641.6420.0020.00-0.98-0.98
MichiganB101.641.6470.5970.590.670.67
MississippiSEC1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
Texas A&MSEC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.2670.9770.970.110.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
WinthropBSth0.190.1980.0080.000.110.11
SamfordSC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
FloridaSEC0.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
CampbellBSth0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1710.7110.71-0.13-0.13
IllinoisB100.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.160.1614.2914.29-0.12-0.12
MercerSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
RichmondA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
IowaB100.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
NorthwesternB100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Penn St.B100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
VermontAE0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
FurmanSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
VillanovaBE0.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
IndianaB100.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
AlbanyAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1037.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01