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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:93.2
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:37
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:1.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1050.00.15%
20-1158.31.85%
19-1269.410.51%
18-1381.924.07%
17-1494.632.19%
16-15106.922.64%
15-16119.57.46%
14-17133.41.07%
13-18145.40.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12East Tennessee St. (190.6)ASunH64-53W100%0.0
11-14Monmouth (275.8)NECH91-46W100%0.0
11-15Florida International (212.8)SBH78-63W100%0.0
11-23Syracuse (2.1)BEN69-58L0%0.0
11-25Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12N57-59W100%0.0
11-27St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H73-64W100%0.0
11-30Minnesota (68.5)B10A58-55L0%0.0
12-4Kansas St. (45.9)B12H61-69L0%0.0
12-7Rhode Island (250.6)A10A67-78W100%0.0
12-11Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACH73-60W100%0.0
12-17Campbell (174.5)BSthH85-60W100%0.0
12-19North Florida (183.0)ASunH84-55W100%0.0
12-22Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACH71-50W100%0.0
12-31Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A61-67W100%0.0
1-7Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA58-55L0%0.0
1-10Florida St. (21.9)ACCH59-63L0%0.0
1-14Boston College (248.2)ACCA61-59L0%0.0
1-19North Carolina (4.6)ACCH68-82L0%0.0
1-22Virginia (39.5)ACCA45-47W100%0.0
1-25Brigham Young (44.9)WCCH68-70L0%0.0
1-28Maryland (112.8)ACCA73-69L0%0.0
2-2Duke (4.2)ACCH60-75L0%0.0
2-4Clemson (148.3)ACCH67-65W100%0.0
2-9Miami FL (64.4)ACCA0-040%-2.7
2-12Boston College (248.2)ACCH0-095%18.1
2-16Florida St. (21.9)ACCA0-021%-8.8
2-18Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH0-082%9.9
2-21Virginia (39.5)ACCH0-047%-0.9
2-25Duke (4.2)ACCA0-015%-11.3
3-1Clemson (148.3)ACCA0-049%-0.4
3-4North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCH0-062%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.2126.1650.4850.770.250.40
ClemsonACC2.473.7952.3849.990.12-0.00
Florida St.ACC2.473.7971.4370.441.061.55
VirginiaACC2.373.7685.7180.381.692.28
DukeACC2.423.7385.7182.451.732.42
Boston CollegeACC2.413.7327.2724.58-1.10-1.90
Oklahoma St.B124.403.2850.0043.610.00-0.42
North Carolina St.ACC0.482.2670.8365.320.200.69
MarylandACC2.422.2357.1449.120.35-0.04
North CarolinaACC2.412.2386.3682.601.751.45
Wake ForestACC2.472.2345.4541.72-0.22-0.37
Miami FLACC0.292.2365.0060.030.090.45
Georgia TechACC0.342.2039.1342.95-0.07-0.31
Kansas St.B122.321.7571.4367.180.990.60
North FloridaASun2.281.7347.8348.29-0.10-0.06
Rhode IslandA102.281.7221.7421.29-1.29-0.99
East Tennessee St.ASun2.271.7255.0054.820.230.17
St. BonaventureA102.221.6963.1661.250.580.38
SyracuseBE2.221.6795.6591.742.031.39
Florida InternationalSB2.221.6435.0038.59-0.67-0.37
CampbellBSth2.171.6458.3357.570.360.25
Eastern MichiganMAC2.221.6442.8639.71-0.32-0.34
MonmouthNEC2.221.6429.1729.87-0.93-0.66
Brigham YoungWCC2.171.6173.9175.151.040.81
MinnesotaB102.171.6168.1860.020.790.32
Norfolk St.MEAC2.171.6171.4372.160.930.71
TexasB120.240.2460.8761.370.050.05
MassachusettsA100.140.2273.9168.580.070.08
KansasB120.100.2178.2678.390.060.12
Michigan St.B100.240.2176.1972.910.130.10
BaylorB120.290.1990.9183.850.240.13
FordhamA100.190.1940.9134.50-0.03-0.06
Texas TechB120.290.1931.8225.98-0.11-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1750.0048.900.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1717.3922.00-0.10-0.09
StetsonASun0.190.1731.8231.31-0.07-0.06
Appalachian St.SC0.240.1635.0039.29-0.07-0.04
BelmontASun0.190.1669.5773.280.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.240.1668.1869.100.090.06
Iowa St.B120.150.1673.9168.430.070.06
MissouriB120.150.1691.3087.180.120.12
OklahomaB120.200.1659.0954.700.040.02
Texas A&MB120.150.1652.3846.150.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1634.7834.61-0.04-0.05
MercerASun0.100.1470.8371.640.040.06
DaytonA100.250.1460.8760.960.050.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1472.2271.970.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1420.0019.96-0.09-0.08
George MasonCAA0.190.1476.0072.500.100.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1355.0060.330.020.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1334.7838.77-0.06-0.03
TempleA100.140.1377.2775.060.080.07
NC GreensboroSC0.100.1334.7833.46-0.03-0.04
HarvardIvy0.140.1390.4887.910.110.10
IowaB100.190.1354.1749.440.02-0.00
MichiganB100.150.1372.7366.810.070.04
ProvidenceBE0.180.1356.5250.270.020.00
TroySB0.160.1228.5730.17-0.07-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.100.1152.3852.870.000.01
CharlotteA100.050.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.118.7011.67-0.12-0.09
LipscombASun0.140.1143.4843.82-0.02-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.150.1154.5556.090.010.01
Longwoodind0.090.1130.0027.84-0.04-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1159.0957.760.030.02
St. LouisA100.100.1177.2777.670.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1135.2939.85-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.190.1134.7832.08-0.06-0.04
IllinoisB100.200.1172.7364.430.090.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1181.8281.030.090.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1182.6177.630.090.06
WisconsinB100.090.1175.0073.970.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.050.1168.1863.990.020.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.130.1168.1867.640.050.04
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1140.9143.66-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1140.9142.96-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.140.1169.5768.290.060.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1026.0928.60-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.1052.3846.680.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.1086.9685.460.070.07
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0936.3639.72-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0830.0037.30-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0817.3924.41-0.10-0.04
DuquesneA100.100.0859.0956.350.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.0868.4266.450.050.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0828.5726.30-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.150.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0862.5062.490.000.02
MarquetteBE0.140.0879.1775.980.080.04
DrexelCAA0.100.0879.1778.100.060.05
OregonP120.090.0869.5764.530.040.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0810.0014.93-0.08-0.06
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.0857.1449.540.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0838.1040.81-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0819.0522.37-0.03-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0852.3857.860.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0821.7422.76-0.08-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.0845.4544.66-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.0865.2260.580.030.02
West VirginiaBE0.090.0865.2265.170.030.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0856.5248.810.01-0.00
DrakeMVC0.100.0852.1750.090.000.00
High PointBSth0.090.0831.8232.75-0.03-0.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0859.0957.280.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0839.1336.10-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.140.088.7013.10-0.12-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0834.7832.06-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0843.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0835.0039.38-0.01-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
RutgersBE0.040.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0856.5255.950.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0848.0051.88-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.090.088.3310.86-0.08-0.06
Central FloridaCUSA0.090.0871.4366.600.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0828.5734.20-0.04-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.140.0860.8758.160.030.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0847.3752.87-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0844.0045.89-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0840.9139.56-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.140.0860.0060.420.030.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0861.9055.140.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0875.0075.780.020.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0683.3384.760.070.04
Western KentuckySB0.100.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0660.8759.760.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.100.0666.6769.690.030.02
CornellIvy0.100.0636.8441.45-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.0677.2773.450.060.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0645.4545.55-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0642.1149.81-0.02-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.490.030.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0636.3638.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0625.0037.58-0.05-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0631.8233.83-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0621.7421.70-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0633.3333.82-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0656.5253.770.010.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.090.0690.9187.740.070.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0581.8280.430.060.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.0540.0040.18-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.8368.820.020.02
XavierA100.050.0565.2263.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0538.1042.78-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0518.1822.22-0.06-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0533.3337.25-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.090.059.5213.19-0.08-0.04
ArizonaP120.050.0566.6768.550.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0555.0057.410.000.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0558.3359.980.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0547.6248.83-0.00-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.050.0557.1453.120.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.090.0525.0028.52-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.040.0527.2727.21-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0554.1757.200.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0535.0038.58-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.055.267.30-0.04-0.05
Seattleind0.050.0523.5333.28-0.03-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0538.1037.86-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0566.6768.050.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0518.1821.13-0.06-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.0557.1460.750.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.059.5211.44-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.054.005.26-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.100.0560.8759.050.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0542.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0530.4329.50-0.04-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0571.4373.350.040.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0538.8943.93-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.090.0565.2262.650.030.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0565.2263.740.030.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0561.9058.590.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0572.2263.190.040.01
BrownIvy0.090.0527.2723.80-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.090.0573.9175.000.040.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0566.6760.800.020.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0576.1976.760.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0550.0042.830.00-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0550.0047.590.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.058.7012.13-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.000.0578.2672.660.000.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0554.5556.840.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0568.0070.030.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0569.5765.870.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0545.4546.08-0.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.040.0582.6184.570.030.04
WashingtonP120.050.0569.5766.540.020.02
DenverSB0.000.0370.8372.230.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
North TexasSB0.000.0350.0050.010.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.000.0369.5771.510.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0317.6527.10-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.040.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
CreightonMVC0.040.0387.5085.410.030.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0344.4441.71-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0381.8277.200.000.01
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.000.0380.0078.060.000.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.040.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0345.4545.70-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0345.4544.02-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.380.000.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0356.5254.220.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.040.02
LafayettePat0.040.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0350.0058.160.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.040.0356.5257.150.010.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0334.7837.24-0.00-0.01