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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:179.4
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:82
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-948.00.02%
20-1047.90.10%
19-1163.60.35%
18-1281.60.96%
17-1398.02.82%
16-14118.86.74%
15-15138.911.05%
14-16159.616.15%
13-17179.619.19%
12-18199.018.51%
11-19217.313.23%
10-20235.36.99%
9-21250.82.93%
8-22266.60.84%
7-23281.70.10%
6-24287.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland Eastern Shore (323.2)MEACH71-46W100%0.0
11-19Liberty (265.9)BSthH73-63W100%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (332.1)SBH0-094%18.8
11-25Northern Iowa (66.2)MVCN0-032%-5.5
11-30Morgan St. (272.8)MEACH0-083%11.3
12-3Penn St. (113.3)B10A0-026%-7.6
12-7Radford (239.6)BSthH0-080%10.2
12-14Alabama A&M (303.8)SWACH0-089%14.7
12-20The Citadel (323.8)SCH0-091%16.2
12-22VMI (250.6)SCH0-082%11.0
12-27Presbyterian (276.7)BSthH0-088%14.1
12-30West Virginia (32.7)B12A0-012%-13.9
1-3Syracuse (22.7)ACCH0-020%-10.0
1-6Florida St. (79.9)ACCA0-018%-11.0
1-13Louisville (13.8)ACCA0-05%-19.2
1-18North Carolina (19.2)ACCA0-08%-16.7
1-22Notre Dame (55.5)ACCH0-026%-7.5
1-25Virginia (28.8)ACCH0-026%-7.8
1-27Pittsburgh (71.9)ACCH0-039%-3.3
1-31Wake Forest (108.4)ACCA0-027%-7.3
2-3Syracuse (22.7)ACCA0-08%-17.2
2-7Florida St. (79.9)ACCH0-038%-3.8
2-9Georgia Tech (98.1)ACCH0-046%-1.1
2-14Clemson (133.6)ACCA0-026%-7.8
2-18Miami FL (29.5)ACCA0-012%-14.4
2-21North Carolina St. (53.0)ACCA0-016%-12.2
2-25Duke (3.1)ACCH0-08%-17.0
2-28Virginia (28.8)ACCA0-011%-15.0
3-2Boston College (158.7)ACCH0-059%2.8
3-7Miami FL (29.5)ACCH0-027%-7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC34.3826.09100.0036.5234.38-7.03
Florida St.ACC0.003.9350.0055.900.000.46
Miami FLACC0.003.89100.0067.400.001.36
SyracuseACC0.003.8766.6769.520.001.51
VirginiaACC0.003.86100.0065.760.001.22
LouisvilleACC0.002.32100.0077.040.001.25
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.32100.0060.350.000.48
Georgia TechACC0.002.32100.0049.880.00-0.01
DukeACC0.002.31100.0084.820.001.61
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3166.6741.250.00-0.40
PittsburghACC0.002.31100.0057.220.000.33
Wake ForestACC0.002.2966.6747.120.00-0.13
ClemsonACC0.002.2850.0045.540.00-0.20
Notre DameACC0.002.26100.0070.070.000.91
North CarolinaACC0.002.26100.0066.790.000.76
PresbyterianBSth0.001.820.0033.56-0.00-0.60
The CitadelSC0.001.810.0028.57-0.00-0.78
RadfordBSth0.001.7933.3344.52-0.00-0.20
VMISC0.001.7950.0045.060.00-0.18
LibertyBSth25.001.79100.0045.7525.00-0.15
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.780.0039.09-0.00-0.39
West VirginiaB120.001.72100.0066.320.000.56
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC25.001.7233.3331.30-8.33-0.64
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.700.0039.65-0.00-0.35
Appalachian St.SB0.001.700.0015.82-0.00-1.16
Northern IowaMVC0.001.70100.0067.290.000.59
Penn St.B100.001.7066.6745.580.00-0.15
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.27100.0059.250.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.2450.0065.490.000.07
WinthropBSth0.000.2250.0056.020.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.2150.0024.870.00-0.11
SamfordSC0.000.2133.3333.83-0.00-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.000.190.0017.64-0.00-0.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.190.0036.86-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.19100.0057.950.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1850.0052.100.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.170.0032.81-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.170.0063.68-0.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.17100.0062.990.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.160.0030.64-0.00-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.160.0063.86-0.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1550.0061.050.000.03
MarylandB100.000.15100.0067.780.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.14100.0066.730.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0044.49-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0028.74-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1433.3334.10-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1450.0068.630.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0055.69-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.130.0048.48-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.1350.0053.990.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0045.35-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1233.3357.17-0.000.02
NavyPat0.000.120.0030.65-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.12100.0071.490.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0066.390.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.110.0039.05-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.110.0048.49-0.00-0.00
VCUA103.120.11100.0076.233.120.06
RichmondA100.000.1150.0061.220.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1150.0067.190.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.11100.0073.880.000.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0029.01-0.00-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.110.0057.31-0.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0062.330.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1150.0043.510.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.11100.0063.480.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0021.31-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.35-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0054.560.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0950.0039.830.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0047.13-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6743.460.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.380.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.25-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0950.0067.810.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0950.0034.150.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0950.0040.820.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0019.35-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.000.09100.0049.500.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0038.06-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0060.930.000.02
IowaB100.000.0966.6773.790.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.090.0051.69-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0069.58-0.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.830.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0850.0051.650.000.00
IndianaB100.000.08100.0064.540.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.08100.0041.770.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.08100.0061.790.000.02
MichiganB100.000.08100.0067.240.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0053.570.000.01
VillanovaBE3.120.08100.0068.633.120.03
NebraskaB100.000.08100.0051.780.000.00
PurdueB100.000.08100.0061.020.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.080.0046.51-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.120.080.0032.90-3.12-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.08100.0044.020.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.68-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3334.62-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0016.22-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.38-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.86-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.06100.0072.390.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0027.60-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3350.49-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0058.890.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0035.660.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0044.320.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3337.88-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0050.29-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.27-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.330.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0025.25-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0062.600.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.340.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0633.3324.67-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0044.88-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.43-0.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.060.0051.35-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.180.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.340.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.06100.0051.730.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0034.17-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0056.370.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0049.980.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0060.330.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.350.000.04
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0045.040.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.62-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6755.190.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.320.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.610.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0038.23-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0038.380.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0036.83-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3347.64-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.67-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.280.000.04
CaliforniaP120.000.06100.0078.150.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.29-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6739.300.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0036.790.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.05100.0068.990.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.050.0031.63-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.05100.0045.740.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0044.770.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.880.000.01
DelawareCAA6.250.030.0042.76-6.25-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0034.320.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.690.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.47-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0055.09-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.500.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0065.390.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.54-0.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0037.190.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0350.0054.530.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.03100.0063.800.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0022.72-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0039.66-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6761.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3331.05-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0333.3326.65-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.460.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.650.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0056.850.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0051.350.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0057.160.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.87-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.850.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.86-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6764.300.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.030.0051.39-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0029.100.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.430.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0066.74-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0045.250.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0064.340.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0046.350.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0070.520.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0053.31-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.88-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0070.930.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0048.12-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0057.150.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0063.260.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.57-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0026.57-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0065.830.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0035.120.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.790.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.100.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.44-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0046.120.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.860.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0046.460.00-0.00