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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:85
Current Record:11-22
Expected Record:11-22
Current Conf Record:3-17
Expected Conf Record:3-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-22228.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH71-46W100%0.0
11-19Liberty (347.0)BSthH73-63W100%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH63-65L0%0.0
11-25Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN54-73L0%0.0
11-26Miami OH (229.0)MACN63-78W100%0.0
11-30Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
12-3Penn St. (108.0)B10A61-58L0%0.0
12-7Radford (154.0)BSthH66-68L0%0.0
12-14Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH65-55W100%0.0
12-20The Citadel (327.0)SCH64-61W100%0.0
12-22VMI (286.0)SCH87-74W100%0.0
12-27Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH87-65W100%0.0
12-30West Virginia (24.0)B12A82-51L0%0.0
1-3Syracuse (69.0)ACCH66-68L0%0.0
1-6Florida St. (110.0)ACCA86-75L0%0.0
1-13Louisville (21.0)ACCA78-63L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina (11.0)ACCA68-53L0%0.0
1-22Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH60-85L0%0.0
1-25Virginia (7.0)ACCH47-50L0%0.0
1-27Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH70-67W100%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA73-70L0%0.0
2-3Syracuse (69.0)ACCA72-70L0%0.0
2-7Florida St. (110.0)ACCH65-73L0%0.0
2-9Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH65-63W100%0.0
2-14Clemson (106.0)ACCA75-54L0%0.0
2-18Miami FL (65.0)ACCA76-52L0%0.0
2-21North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA69-53L0%0.0
2-25Duke (6.0)ACCH86-91L0%0.0
2-28Virginia (7.0)ACCA69-57L0%0.0
3-2Boston College (165.0)ACCH59-66L0%0.0
3-7Miami FL (65.0)ACCH61-82L0%0.0
3-10Wake Forest (150.0)ACCN80-81W100%0.0
3-11Miami FL (65.0)ACCN59-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.1326.1325.8725.87-12.61-12.61
Miami FLACC5.065.0660.0060.001.011.01
Florida St.ACC3.673.6748.3948.39-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC3.613.6190.0090.002.892.89
Wake ForestACC3.573.5740.0040.00-0.71-0.71
SyracuseACC3.523.5255.1755.170.360.36
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1938.7138.71-0.50-0.50
DukeACC2.172.1787.5087.501.631.63
North CarolinaACC2.172.1767.6567.650.770.77
North Carolina St.ACC2.172.1759.3859.380.410.41
Notre DameACC2.172.1784.8584.851.511.51
Georgia TechACC2.152.1540.0040.00-0.43-0.43
LouisvilleACC2.142.1474.1974.191.041.04
PittsburghACC2.122.1258.0658.060.340.34
ClemsonACC2.122.1250.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth1.671.6714.8114.81-1.18-1.18
PresbyterianBSth1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
The CitadelSC1.641.6430.7730.77-0.63-0.63
Morgan St.MEAC1.631.6323.3323.33-0.87-0.87
RadfordBSth1.621.6260.7160.710.350.35
VMISC1.621.6233.3333.33-0.54-0.54
West VirginiaB121.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Miami OHMAC1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Alabama A&MSWAC1.541.5429.6329.63-0.63-0.63
Appalachian St.SB1.541.5439.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Northern IowaMVC1.541.5490.6290.621.251.25
Penn St.B101.541.5451.5251.520.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2359.2659.260.040.04
FurmanSC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
LongwoodBSth0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
WinthropBSth0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.210.2181.2581.250.130.13
HamptonMEAC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
IowaB100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
MercerSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
CampbellBSth0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
RichmondA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
CornellIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
BucknellPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00