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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:53
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1489.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH82-85L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH71-62W100%0.0
11-21VMI (316.0)SCH76-52W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH90-60W100%0.0
11-27Iowa St. (23.0)B12N99-77L0%0.0
11-28UAB (88.0)CUSAN77-82W100%0.0
12-1Northwestern (115.0)B10H79-81L0%0.0
12-5Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH80-45W100%0.0
12-9Radford (192.0)BSthA65-74W100%0.0
12-13Lamar (337.0)SlndH88-53W100%0.0
12-19Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH87-52W100%0.0
12-22Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N62-79L0%0.0
12-30West Virginia (10.0)B12H63-88L0%0.0
1-2North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH73-68W100%0.0
1-4Virginia (3.0)ACCH70-68W100%0.0
1-9Duke (20.0)ACCA82-58L0%0.0
1-13Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH93-91W100%0.0
1-16Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA77-78W100%0.0
1-20Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA83-81L0%0.0
1-24North Carolina (5.0)ACCH70-75L0%0.0
1-27Louisville (17.0)ACCH83-91L0%0.0
1-31Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA90-71L0%0.0
2-2Syracuse (72.0)ACCA68-60L0%0.0
2-6Clemson (131.0)ACCH60-57W100%0.0
2-9Virginia (3.0)ACCA67-49L0%0.0
2-17Miami FL (9.0)ACCA65-49L0%0.0
2-20Florida St. (82.0)ACCH83-73W100%0.0
2-23Boston College (250.0)ACCA56-71W100%0.0
2-28Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA74-81W100%0.0
3-2Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH65-61W100%0.0
3-5Miami FL (9.0)ACCH77-62W100%0.0
3-9Florida St. (82.0)ACCN96-85W100%0.0
3-10Miami FL (9.0)ACCN88-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.1326.1353.1053.101.621.62
Miami FLACC5.115.1179.3179.313.003.00
VirginiaACC3.723.7280.6580.652.282.28
Florida St.ACC3.623.6263.3363.330.970.97
PittsburghACC3.573.5765.5265.521.111.11
Wake ForestACC3.553.5537.9337.93-0.86-0.86
North CarolinaACC2.202.2081.8281.821.401.40
North Carolina St.ACC2.182.1850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
Georgia TechACC2.162.1659.3859.380.400.40
SyracuseACC2.162.1658.0658.060.350.35
DukeACC2.132.1368.7568.750.800.80
ClemsonACC2.132.1356.6756.670.280.28
Boston CollegeACC2.112.1122.5822.58-1.15-1.15
LouisvilleACC2.102.1073.3373.330.980.98
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.651.6525.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Grambling St.SWAC1.641.6414.8114.81-1.15-1.15
West VirginiaB121.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Iowa St.B121.581.5864.5264.520.460.46
UABCUSA1.571.5783.3383.331.041.04
Jacksonville St.OVC1.571.5721.4321.43-0.89-0.89
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
NorthwesternB101.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
LamarSlnd1.521.5228.0028.00-0.67-0.67
RadfordBSth1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA101.521.5278.7978.790.870.87
VMISC1.521.5223.0823.08-0.82-0.82
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.2022.8622.86-0.11-0.11
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.2035.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
FloridaSEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
SouthernSWAC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.140.1447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1357.6957.690.020.02
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
KansasB120.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
LibertyBSth0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
DavidsonA100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
BaylorB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01