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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:11.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:24-11
Expected Record:24-11
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1111.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
11-16Robert Morris (171.0)NECH103-59W100%0.0
11-22Davidson (35.0)A10A72-90W100%0.0
11-26Butler (31.0)BEN66-74L0%0.0
11-27UCLA (48.0)P12N56-78W100%0.0
11-28Florida (72.0)SECN64-75W100%0.0
12-3Iowa (43.0)B10H55-60L0%0.0
12-7East Carolina (219.0)AmerH108-64W100%0.0
12-13Kentucky (1.0)SECA84-70L0%0.0
12-16UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA56-79W100%0.0
12-20Ohio St. (41.0)B10N82-74W100%0.0
12-27UAB (130.0)CUSAH89-58W100%0.0
12-30William & Mary (93.0)CAAH86-64W100%0.0
1-3Clemson (106.0)ACCA50-74W100%0.0
1-5Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH70-71L0%0.0
1-10Louisville (21.0)ACCH72-71W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA79-81W100%0.0
1-18Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH68-53W100%0.0
1-21Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA71-87W100%0.0
1-24Florida St. (110.0)ACCH78-74W100%0.0
1-26Syracuse (69.0)ACCH93-83W100%0.0
1-31Louisville (21.0)ACCA78-68L0%0.0
2-2Virginia (7.0)ACCH64-75L0%0.0
2-7Boston College (165.0)ACCA68-79W100%0.0
2-14Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA89-76L0%0.0
2-18Duke (6.0)ACCA92-90L0%0.0
2-21Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH89-60W100%0.0
2-24North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH46-58L0%0.0
2-28Miami FL (65.0)ACCA64-73W100%0.0
3-3Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA49-81W100%0.0
3-7Duke (6.0)ACCH77-84L0%0.0
3-11Boston College (165.0)ACCN81-63W100%0.0
3-12Louisville (21.0)ACCN70-60W100%0.0
3-13Virginia (7.0)ACCN71-67W100%0.0
3-14Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN82-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1826.1867.0567.058.938.93
LouisvilleACC4.844.8479.3179.312.842.84
Notre DameACC3.523.5284.3884.382.422.42
VirginiaACC3.503.5093.3393.333.033.03
DukeACC3.473.4787.1087.102.582.58
North Carolina St.ACC3.463.4661.2961.290.780.78
Boston CollegeACC3.453.4543.3343.33-0.46-0.46
Georgia TechACC3.433.4341.3841.38-0.59-0.59
Miami FLACC2.132.1365.6265.620.670.67
Wake ForestACC2.112.1141.9441.94-0.34-0.34
PittsburghACC2.092.0954.8454.840.200.20
ClemsonACC2.092.0953.3353.330.140.14
Florida St.ACC2.072.0753.1253.120.130.13
Virginia TechACC2.052.0534.3834.38-0.64-0.64
SyracuseACC2.052.0560.0060.000.410.41
FloridaSEC1.601.6050.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC1.581.58100.00100.001.581.58
Ohio St.B101.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
IowaB101.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
DavidsonA101.471.4779.3179.310.860.86
UABCUSA1.471.4756.2556.250.180.18
UCLAP121.471.4762.5062.500.370.37
East CarolinaAmer1.451.4540.0040.00-0.29-0.29
Robert MorrisNEC1.451.4559.3859.380.270.27
UNC GreensboroSC1.451.4527.5927.59-0.65-0.65
William & MaryCAA1.451.4562.0762.070.350.35
ButlerBE1.431.4367.7467.740.510.51
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.431.4378.5778.570.820.82
IndianaB100.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
WoffordSC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
MinnesotaB100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
PurdueB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
ElonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
WisconsinB100.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
MarquetteBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
USCP120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0927.2727.27-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
High PointBSth0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
HarvardIvy0.090.0974.0774.070.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0710.0010.00-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
DePaulBE0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0426.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0490.9190.910.040.04
OklahomaB120.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
TexasB120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0491.1891.180.040.04
ArmyPat0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
ColoradoP120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
KansasB120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0417.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00