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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:11.6
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:11
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-31.00.02%
27-42.00.47%
26-52.92.05%
25-64.36.02%
24-76.213.60%
23-88.721.75%
22-911.321.32%
21-1014.417.73%
20-1118.210.45%
19-1222.54.62%
18-1328.71.43%
17-1435.50.43%
16-1548.90.07%
15-1656.00.02%
14-1761.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
11-16Robert Morris (272.3)NECH103-59W100%0.0
11-22Davidson (32.7)A10N90-72W100%0.0
11-26Butler (25.9)BEN66-74L0%0.0
11-27UCLA (69.3)P12N56-78W100%0.0
11-28Florida (39.0)SECN64-75W100%0.0
12-3Iowa (50.4)B10H55-60L0%0.0
12-7East Carolina (216.3)AmerH108-64W100%0.0
12-13Kentucky (1.6)SECA84-70L0%0.0
12-16UNC Greensboro (282.7)SCA56-79W100%0.0
12-20Ohio St. (10.6)B10N0-042%-2.3
12-27UAB (224.5)CUSAH0-099%25.9
12-30William & Mary (104.3)CAAH0-095%19.6
1-3Clemson (159.7)ACCA0-084%11.9
1-5Notre Dame (68.4)ACCH0-081%10.3
1-10Louisville (7.1)ACCH0-056%1.6
1-14North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA0-060%3.0
1-18Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCH0-098%23.6
1-21Wake Forest (156.3)ACCA0-084%11.9
1-24Florida St. (207.5)ACCH0-098%23.3
1-26Syracuse (71.5)ACCH0-087%13.5
1-31Louisville (7.1)ACCA0-027%-7.1
2-2Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-059%2.7
2-7Boston College (153.8)ACCA0-086%12.7
2-14Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCA0-078%9.1
2-18Duke (4.6)ACCA0-026%-7.6
2-21Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCH0-094%17.9
2-24North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCH0-084%11.7
2-28Miami FL (23.0)ACCA0-050%-0.1
3-3Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCA0-078%9.2
3-7Duke (4.6)ACCH0-054%1.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC27.6126.0467.3970.829.6010.84
LouisvilleACC0.003.78100.0087.170.002.81
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.7381.8266.610.001.24
DukeACC0.003.72100.0089.000.002.91
Georgia TechACC0.003.7277.7854.010.000.30
Wake ForestACC0.002.2750.0038.740.00-0.51
VirginiaACC0.002.24100.0086.840.001.65
ClemsonACC0.002.2466.6746.710.00-0.15
Notre DameACC0.002.2290.9173.660.001.05
SyracuseACC0.232.2266.6759.310.080.41
Miami FLACC0.252.2290.0076.360.201.17
Florida St.ACC0.002.1950.0038.690.00-0.50
PittsburghACC0.002.1966.6753.360.000.15
Virginia TechACC0.002.1655.5639.330.00-0.46
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1666.6743.070.00-0.30
FloridaSEC5.001.8066.6767.091.670.62
KentuckySEC5.001.74100.0094.625.001.56
Ohio St.B100.001.7290.0085.580.001.22
IowaB105.001.6970.0061.342.000.38
UCLAP125.001.6780.0059.193.000.31
UABCUSA0.481.6630.0038.51-0.19-0.38
East CarolinaAmer5.001.6442.8639.98-0.71-0.33
UNC GreensboroSC5.001.6425.0039.15-2.50-0.36
DavidsonA105.001.64100.0079.875.000.98
Robert MorrisNEC5.001.6433.3340.80-1.67-0.30
William & MaryCAA0.251.6457.1458.750.040.29
ButlerBE5.001.6177.7871.642.780.70
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.001.6150.0072.770.000.73
IndianaB100.280.2180.0057.630.170.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.590.2050.0053.700.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.1977.7876.240.000.10
ProvidenceBE0.230.1872.7353.260.100.01
RichmondA100.000.1755.5657.090.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.310.1660.0064.610.060.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1644.4444.78-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.250.1660.0040.620.05-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1690.9188.390.000.12
MinnesotaB100.000.1677.7864.730.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1672.7363.730.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1437.5047.87-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.310.1470.0060.790.120.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1418.1828.02-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.280.1477.7869.190.150.05
ChattanoogaSC0.500.1444.4451.58-0.060.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1350.0057.510.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1362.5059.510.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1372.7367.750.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1380.0064.110.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1355.5647.870.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1375.0060.400.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.750.1366.6759.460.250.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1372.7373.150.000.06
St. John'sBE0.000.1387.5065.040.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.250.1350.0046.150.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1150.0044.900.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0012.36-0.00-0.09
HofstraCAA0.000.1177.7878.540.000.06
High PointBSth0.280.1162.5056.410.070.01
DuquesneA100.250.1128.5731.23-0.11-0.04
UCFAmer0.310.1155.5634.940.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1125.0029.59-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3331.58-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.1116.6730.84-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1177.7870.120.000.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1118.1844.62-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.280.1190.9167.660.230.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1160.0055.630.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6455.600.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.280.110.008.63-0.28-0.09
FIUCUSA0.000.1144.4451.04-0.000.00
RutgersB100.000.1160.0035.070.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5037.96-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1062.5064.260.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1090.0066.940.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.1077.7871.960.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6754.660.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.230.1040.0050.07-0.050.00
MichiganB100.000.1055.5642.550.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6743.780.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1090.9153.850.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1075.0057.570.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.0971.4363.890.120.02
DelawareCAA0.000.090.007.39-0.00-0.07
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.280.0930.0043.91-0.11-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.15-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.0966.6757.860.000.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0955.5659.990.030.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.340.000.03
VCUA100.000.0870.0071.420.000.04
VMISC0.000.0833.3339.22-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5073.190.000.04
CreightonBE0.280.0872.7351.560.130.00
HamptonMEAC0.230.0840.0050.32-0.050.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.0822.2230.85-0.17-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0850.0052.710.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.0814.2945.19-0.22-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0837.5034.19-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0828.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0828.5741.17-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.500.0833.3345.28-0.17-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0850.0058.360.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3349.71-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.92-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.250.0860.0059.420.050.01
USCP120.000.0860.0036.120.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0855.5649.500.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0066.690.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0842.8649.98-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.930.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.250.0810.0018.58-0.20-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0850.0039.340.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.58-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7865.390.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0082.080.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.81-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0641.6744.33-0.05-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0618.1835.99-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.960.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.530.0645.4544.07-0.05-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
CampbellBSth0.310.0525.0044.59-0.16-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.510.0520.0026.57-0.30-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.310.0514.2930.74-0.22-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0065.410.000.02
StetsonASun0.310.0510.0027.42-0.25-0.02
Green BayHorz0.310.0575.0078.480.160.03
HawaiiBW0.310.0566.6754.830.100.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.790.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.940.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.900.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0533.3344.71-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0544.4445.64-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0052.800.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8627.08-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0522.2240.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0062.270.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0560.0064.620.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0514.2933.54-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.87-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.480.0575.0069.120.240.02
MaineAE0.250.0511.1121.08-0.19-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0518.1846.16-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.57-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0555.5654.360.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0577.7868.780.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0575.0068.680.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0520.0028.20-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0043.08-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0566.6758.240.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.110.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0542.8655.64-0.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0544.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1453.130.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0555.5638.600.00-0.01
KansasB120.480.0588.8969.390.370.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.0536.3633.67-0.07-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.250.0533.3327.70-0.08-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2237.50-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.50-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.450.0522.2228.69-0.25-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.050.0018.94-0.23-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0544.4456.91-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.0550.0032.620.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.0078.050.000.03
OklahomaB120.480.0577.7867.290.270.02
OregonP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0577.7855.460.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.260.000.02
TexasB120.450.0590.0081.860.360.03
UtahP120.000.0577.7879.480.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0580.0070.960.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.0333.3338.99-0.09-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.33-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.01-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0340.0050.78-0.060.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.95-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0371.4363.410.120.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.310.0325.0052.09-0.160.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.80-0.12-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.330.000.01
BradleyMVC0.250.0333.3332.09-0.08-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
LafayettePat0.250.0375.0069.820.130.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.61-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.030.0028.26-0.23-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.230.0333.3342.19-0.08-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.29-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0336.3638.88-0.06-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.230.0357.1470.590.030.01
ColumbiaIvy0.230.0362.5064.770.060.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.0390.0090.940.180.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.88-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.0336.3644.53-0.06-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.250.0333.3332.85-0.08-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Iowa St.B120.230.0388.8963.800.180.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.220.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.58-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.0355.5656.400.030.00
PepperdineWCC0.230.0375.0058.430.110.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0055.810.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.230.0354.5557.300.020.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.830.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0311.1144.62-0.19-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.230.0342.8643.10-0.03-0.00
UMBCAE0.230.0310.0020.91-0.18-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.0355.5654.950.030.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00
YaleIvy0.250.0372.7367.180.110.01