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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1017.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Gardner Webb (194.0)BSthH76-59W100%0.0
11-11Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBH80-56W100%0.0
11-16Long Beach St. (115.0)BWA63-78W100%0.0
11-19Mississippi St. (232.0)SECN95-49W100%0.0
11-20Butler (22.0)A10N71-82L0%0.0
11-27Indiana (8.0)B10A83-59L0%0.0
12-1UAB (144.0)CUSAH102-84W100%0.0
12-8East Tennessee St. (275.0)ASunH78-55W100%0.0
12-15East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH93-87W100%0.0
12-19Texas (116.0)B12A85-67L0%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (246.0)SlndH97-63W100%0.0
12-29Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)MWCH79-73W100%0.0
1-6Virginia (76.0)ACCA61-52L0%0.0
1-10Miami FL (4.0)ACCH59-68L0%0.0
1-12Florida St. (85.0)ACCA72-77W100%0.0
1-19Maryland (73.0)ACCH62-52W100%0.0
1-23Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCH79-63W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA91-83L0%0.0
1-29Boston College (113.0)ACCA70-82W100%0.0
2-2Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH72-60W100%0.0
2-5Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH87-62W100%0.0
2-9Miami FL (4.0)ACCA87-61L0%0.0
2-13Duke (1.0)ACCA73-68L0%0.0
2-16Virginia (76.0)ACCH93-81W100%0.0
2-19Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA58-70W100%0.0
2-23North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH76-65W100%0.0
2-28Clemson (185.0)ACCA59-68W100%0.0
3-3Florida St. (85.0)ACCH79-58W100%0.0
3-6Maryland (73.0)ACCA68-79W100%0.0
3-9Duke (1.0)ACCH53-69L0%0.0
3-15Florida St. (85.0)ACCN83-62W100%0.0
3-16Maryland (73.0)ACCN79-76W100%0.0
3-17Miami FL (4.0)ACCN87-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.3826.3870.2170.2110.6610.66
MarylandACC5.275.2770.9770.972.212.21
Miami FLACC5.275.2780.0080.003.163.16
Florida St.ACC5.275.2760.0060.001.051.05
North Carolina St.ACC3.853.8571.8871.881.681.68
DukeACC3.793.7983.3383.332.532.53
VirginiaACC3.773.7766.6766.671.261.26
Georgia TechACC3.733.7355.1755.170.390.39
Boston CollegeACC2.422.4250.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.382.3841.9441.94-0.38-0.38
ClemsonACC2.372.3743.3343.33-0.32-0.32
Wake ForestACC2.372.3743.3343.33-0.32-0.32
East CarolinaCUSA1.591.5956.0056.000.190.19
UABCUSA1.571.5748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
IndianaB101.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
Florida AtlanticSB1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Gardner WebbBSth1.541.5462.0762.070.370.37
East Tennessee St.ASun1.541.5430.0030.00-0.62-0.62
TexasB121.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
ButlerA101.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
Long Beach St.BW1.521.5258.6258.620.260.26
McNeese St.Slnd1.521.5240.7440.74-0.28-0.28
Nevada Las VegasMWC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
StetsonASun0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Central FloridaCUSA0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
HawaiiBW0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
MinnesotaB100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
IllinoisB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
MercerASun0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1414.8114.81-0.10-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
KentuckySEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Southern MississippiCUSA0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
RiceCUSA0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
NC GreensboroSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
North FloridaASun0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.110.1170.0070.000.050.05
George MasonCAA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North TexasSB0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
IUPUISum0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
CaliforniaP120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00