The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated North Carolina page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

North Carolina

Conference:		ACC
Expected RPI:		83.6
Current RPI:		78
Expected SOS:		14
Current SOS:		21
Current Record:		13-10
Expected Record:		16-15
Current Conf Record:		2-6
Expected Conf Record:		5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		5-0
Current OOC Record:		11-4
Expected OOC Record:		11-4
Expected OOC RPI:		56
Expected OOC SOS:		87

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	43.3	0.22%
19-12	52.4	2.17%
18-13	62.3	10.59%
17-14	72.7	23.58%
16-15	83.7	31.18%
15-16	96.1	22.77%
14-17	110.5	8.43%
13-18	126.5	1.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-9	Florida International (286.4)	SB	H	88-72	W	100%	0.0
11-11	North Carolina Central (345.5)	ind	H	89-42	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Valparaiso (167.6)	Horz	H	88-77	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Ohio St. (38.1)	B10	N	77-73	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Syracuse (3.0)	BE	N	71-87	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Gardner Webb (308.9)	BSth	H	93-72	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Nevada (64.6)	WAC	H	80-73	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Michigan St. (23.6)	B10	H	89-82	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Kentucky (6.1)	SEC	A	66-68	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Presbyterian (326.0)	BSth	H	103-64	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Texas (15.2)	B12	N	90-103	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Marshall (82.0)	CUSA	H	98-61	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Rutgers (161.8)	BE	H	81-67	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Albany (293.1)	AE	H	87-70	W	100%	0.0
1-4	College of Charleston (90.2)	SC	A	79-82	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	H	78-64	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Clemson (37.6)	ACC	A	64-83	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	H	71-73	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Wake Forest (25.2)	ACC	H	69-82	L	0%	0.0
1-26	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	A	77-63	W	100%	0.0
1-31	Virginia (92.0)	ACC	H	60-75	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	A	70-74	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Maryland (35.5)	ACC	A	71-92	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Duke (3.7)	ACC	H	0-0		22%	-8.3
2-13	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	H	0-0		71%	6.0
2-16	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	A	0-0		24%	-7.6
2-20	Boston College (106.8)	ACC	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-24	Florida St. (41.5)	ACC	H	0-0		52%	0.5
2-27	Wake Forest (25.2)	ACC	A	0-0		28%	-6.5
3-2	Miami FL (90.7)	ACC	H	0-0		64%	4.0
3-6	Duke (3.7)	ACC	A	0-0		7%	-16.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina	ACC	26.21	26.12	49.45	46.09	-0.29	-2.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	4.50	3.77	85.00	74.19	3.15	1.83
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.53	3.81	60.87	57.06	0.55	0.54
Virginia	ACC	2.52	2.24	65.00	55.77	0.75	0.26
Clemson	ACC	2.51	2.26	68.18	65.74	0.91	0.71
Wake Forest	ACC	2.42	3.77	75.00	69.99	1.21	1.51
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.37	3.77	71.43	66.67	1.02	1.26
North Carolina Central	ind	2.36	1.77	5.00	10.17	-2.13	-1.41
Presbyterian	BSth	2.32	1.73	13.04	15.84	-1.72	-1.18
Maryland	ACC	2.32	2.21	70.00	66.70	0.93	0.74
Texas	B12	2.27	1.67	81.82	78.05	1.45	0.94
Michigan St.	B10	2.27	1.69	82.61	79.16	1.48	0.99
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.27	1.74	21.05	24.52	-1.31	-0.89
Syracuse	BE	2.26	1.67	95.65	91.09	2.07	1.37
Florida International	SB	2.23	1.67	25.00	24.55	-1.11	-0.85
College of Charleston	SC	2.22	1.64	65.22	64.43	0.68	0.47
Albany	AE	2.22	1.64	24.00	26.63	-1.15	-0.77
Ohio St.	B10	2.22	1.69	78.26	76.18	1.25	0.89
Rutgers	BE	2.22	1.64	50.00	44.37	0.00	-0.18
Valparaiso	Horz	2.22	1.64	42.86	44.98	-0.32	-0.16
Kentucky	SEC	2.17	1.61	95.45	88.29	1.98	1.24
Marshall	CUSA	2.17	1.61	70.00	67.97	0.87	0.58
Nevada	WAC	2.17	1.61	60.00	62.70	0.43	0.41
Miami FL	ACC	0.46	2.24	68.18	63.69	0.17	0.61
Florida St.	ACC	0.44	2.24	73.91	70.23	0.21	0.91
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.40	0.22	40.00	40.09	-0.08	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.38	0.21	33.33	30.82	-0.13	-0.08
High Point	BSth	0.36	0.26	42.86	44.37	-0.05	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.34	3.78	82.61	82.11	0.22	2.43
NC Greensboro	SC	0.34	0.30	21.74	24.84	-0.19	-0.15
Florida	SEC	0.28	0.24	73.91	67.72	0.13	0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.25	0.17	20.00	21.94	-0.15	-0.10
Penn St.	B10	0.25	0.22	34.78	32.23	-0.08	-0.08
Boston College	ACC	0.25	2.21	52.17	48.47	0.01	-0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.24	0.23	80.95	82.07	0.15	0.14
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.24	0.17	21.05	22.43	-0.14	-0.09
Winthrop	BSth	0.24	0.22	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.23	0.18	78.26	78.92	0.13	0.11
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.17	23.81	29.40	-0.11	-0.07
Troy	SB	0.20	0.14	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.20	0.16	40.91	34.84	-0.04	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.20	0.16	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.11	43.48	39.98	-0.03	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.11	71.43	69.51	0.08	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.19	0.14	45.45	46.81	-0.02	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.19	0.14	42.86	41.51	-0.03	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.19	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.14	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.19	0.13	17.39	20.11	-0.12	-0.08
Illinois	B10	0.18	0.16	66.67	59.01	0.06	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.18	0.16	65.22	66.09	0.06	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.13	63.64	64.66	0.05	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.18	0.13	69.57	67.93	0.07	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.17	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.02
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.15	0.17	29.41	29.63	-0.06	-0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.16	77.27	70.93	0.08	0.07
NC Asheville	BSth	0.15	0.14	33.33	37.71	-0.05	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.19	86.36	81.80	0.11	0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.08	52.00	49.34	0.01	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.13	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.08	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.08	27.27	31.08	-0.07	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	62.18	0.04	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.13	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.11	83.33	83.91	0.09	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.13	42.86	45.66	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.08	56.52	58.43	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.11	8.70	11.46	-0.12	-0.08
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.11	29.17	28.85	-0.06	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.14	0.11	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.14	0.11	42.86	41.05	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.14	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.08	39.13	38.63	-0.03	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.11	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.08	68.00	67.20	0.05	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.14	78.26	71.72	0.06	0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.11	30.43	32.32	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.09	54.17	58.55	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.09	82.61	78.56	0.07	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	73.91	76.66	0.05	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.09	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.09	28.57	27.72	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.08	22.22	27.56	-0.06	-0.04
Stanford	P10	0.10	0.05	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.05	12.00	18.82	-0.08	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.05	23.81	27.31	-0.05	-0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.10	0.05	57.14	58.76	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.05	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.05	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.06	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	62.50	65.32	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.10	0.17	19.05	23.26	-0.06	-0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.06	0.09
Hawaii	WAC	0.10	0.08	36.36	33.80	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.05	69.57	69.99	0.04	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.05	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P10	0.10	0.08	60.87	59.61	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.05	65.22	64.71	0.03	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.08	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	86.96	85.47	0.07	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.05	8.70	10.09	-0.08	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.05	52.17	48.47	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.16	60.87	56.49	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.05	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.10	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.13	59.09	54.41	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.85	0.04	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.08	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.08	35.00	38.23	-0.03	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.08	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.08	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.16	77.27	73.36	0.05	0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.08	73.91	70.80	0.04	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.11	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.08	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.06	0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.05	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.05	70.59	72.98	0.04	0.02
California	P10	0.09	0.05	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.05	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.05	66.67	69.41	0.03	0.02
Samford	SC	0.09	0.05	28.57	31.03	-0.04	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.08	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.08	66.67	67.94	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.08	30.43	32.48	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	SB	0.09	0.08	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.05	0.00	5.15	-0.09	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.09	0.10	63.64	61.86	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.05	66.67	64.02	0.03	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.05	61.90	63.69	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	35.00	30.59	-0.02	-0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.95	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	18.18	19.18	-0.03	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.51	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.98	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.24	-0.02	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	48.32	-0.01	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.65	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.91	0.03	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	61.90	56.37	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.10	0.02	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	61.90	65.68	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	75.00	71.23	0.03	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.09	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.12	0.03	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	16.00	21.62	-0.04	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.43	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.08	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	22.73	22.57	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.08	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	76.19	72.73	0.02	0.02
Colorado	B12	0.05	0.03	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	4.17	4.73	-0.04	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	59.09	51.13	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	69.57	63.55	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	31.82	30.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.10	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	58.33	58.93	0.01	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	47.37	52.55	-0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.03	36.36	40.08	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.19	73.20	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.05	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	40.00	39.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	85.71	85.57	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.08	34.78	33.89	-0.01	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.79	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.08	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.09	31.05	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	45.83	48.87	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	20.58	-0.03	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	30.43	30.27	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.08	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.62	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.04	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.04	0.03	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.06	47.62	45.68	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.58	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.03	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.05	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.05	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
American	Pat	0.04	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.03	39.13	41.19	-0.01	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.05	72.00	70.73	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	70.83	73.80	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.08	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.04	0.05	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.04	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.05	56.52	54.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	36.52	-0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.00	0.03	55.00	60.15	0.00	0.01
Arizona St.	P10	0.00	0.05	66.67	67.74	0.00	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.00	0.00
Bryant	ind	0.00	0.03	0.00	4.18	-0.00	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.03	15.79	17.64	-0.00	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	73.68	75.41	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.00	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	38.10	41.29	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	95.65	91.32	0.00	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	27.27	29.40	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.48	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.00	0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	91.30	88.21	0.00	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.03	27.27	25.31	-0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	86.36	81.50	0.00	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.57	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.00	0.03	18.18	21.04	-0.00	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.00	0.05	14.29	15.65	-0.00	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.00	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.69	0.00	0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina	ACC	26.21	26.12	49.45	46.09	-0.29	-2.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.53	3.81	60.87	57.06	0.55	0.54
Duke	ACC	0.34	3.78	82.61	82.11	0.22	2.43
Virginia Tech	ACC	4.50	3.77	85.00	74.19	3.15	1.83
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.37	3.77	71.43	66.67	1.02	1.26
Wake Forest	ACC	2.42	3.77	75.00	69.99	1.21	1.51
Clemson	ACC	2.51	2.26	68.18	65.74	0.91	0.71
Miami FL	ACC	0.46	2.24	68.18	63.69	0.17	0.61
Virginia	ACC	2.52	2.24	65.00	55.77	0.75	0.26
Florida St.	ACC	0.44	2.24	73.91	70.23	0.21	0.91
Boston College	ACC	0.25	2.21	52.17	48.47	0.01	-0.07
Maryland	ACC	2.32	2.21	70.00	66.70	0.93	0.74
North Carolina Central	ind	2.36	1.77	5.00	10.17	-2.13	-1.41
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.27	1.74	21.05	24.52	-1.31	-0.89
Presbyterian	BSth	2.32	1.73	13.04	15.84	-1.72	-1.18
Michigan St.	B10	2.27	1.69	82.61	79.16	1.48	0.99
Ohio St.	B10	2.22	1.69	78.26	76.18	1.25	0.89
Florida International	SB	2.23	1.67	25.00	24.55	-1.11	-0.85
Texas	B12	2.27	1.67	81.82	78.05	1.45	0.94
Syracuse	BE	2.26	1.67	95.65	91.09	2.07	1.37
College of Charleston	SC	2.22	1.64	65.22	64.43	0.68	0.47
Albany	AE	2.22	1.64	24.00	26.63	-1.15	-0.77
Rutgers	BE	2.22	1.64	50.00	44.37	0.00	-0.18
Valparaiso	Horz	2.22	1.64	42.86	44.98	-0.32	-0.16
Kentucky	SEC	2.17	1.61	95.45	88.29	1.98	1.24
Marshall	CUSA	2.17	1.61	70.00	67.97	0.87	0.58
Nevada	WAC	2.17	1.61	60.00	62.70	0.43	0.41
NC Greensboro	SC	0.34	0.30	21.74	24.84	-0.19	-0.15
High Point	BSth	0.36	0.26	42.86	44.37	-0.05	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.28	0.24	73.91	67.72	0.13	0.08
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.24	0.23	80.95	82.07	0.15	0.14
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.40	0.22	40.00	40.09	-0.08	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.24	0.22	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.25	0.22	34.78	32.23	-0.08	-0.08
Iowa	B10	0.38	0.21	33.33	30.82	-0.13	-0.08
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.19	86.36	81.80	0.11	0.12
Wisconsin	B10	0.23	0.18	78.26	78.92	0.13	0.11
East Carolina	CUSA	0.25	0.17	20.00	21.94	-0.15	-0.10
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.15	0.17	29.41	29.63	-0.06	-0.07
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.17	23.81	29.40	-0.11	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.24	0.17	21.05	22.43	-0.14	-0.09
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.17	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.02
Elon	SC	0.10	0.17	19.05	23.26	-0.06	-0.09
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.16	77.27	70.93	0.08	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.20	0.16	40.91	34.84	-0.04	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.20	0.16	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.18	0.16	65.22	66.09	0.06	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.16	77.27	73.36	0.05	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.18	0.16	66.67	59.01	0.06	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.16	60.87	56.49	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.19	0.14	42.86	41.51	-0.03	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.15	0.14	33.33	37.71	-0.05	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.20	0.14	47.62	50.38	-0.01	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.14	78.26	71.72	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.19	0.14	45.45	46.81	-0.02	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.14	81.82	83.61	0.06	0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.14	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.19	0.13	17.39	20.11	-0.12	-0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.13	59.09	54.41	0.02	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.13	57.14	57.47	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.13	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.13	63.64	64.66	0.05	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.13	42.86	45.66	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.18	0.13	69.57	67.93	0.07	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.11	43.48	39.98	-0.03	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.11	30.43	32.32	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.11	29.17	28.85	-0.06	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.11	71.43	69.51	0.08	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.11	83.33	83.91	0.09	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.14	0.11	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.19	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.14	0.07
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.11	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.02
Furman	SC	0.14	0.11	42.86	41.05	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.11	8.70	11.46	-0.12	-0.08
Providence	BE	0.09	0.11	52.17	46.62	0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.10	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.10	65.22	62.07	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.09	0.10	63.64	61.86	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.09	28.57	27.72	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.09	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.09	54.17	58.55	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.09	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.09	82.61	78.56	0.07	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.09	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.08	27.27	31.08	-0.07	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.08	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.08	56.52	58.43	0.02	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.08	52.38	49.31	0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.08	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.08	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.08	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.10	0.08	36.36	33.80	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.08	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.06	0.05
Southern California	P10	0.10	0.08	60.87	59.61	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.08	22.22	27.56	-0.06	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.08	39.13	38.63	-0.03	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.08	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	62.18	0.04	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.08	52.00	49.34	0.01	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.08	35.00	38.23	-0.03	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.08	34.78	33.89	-0.01	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.08	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.08	66.67	67.94	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.08	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.02
New Orleans	SB	0.09	0.08	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.08	73.91	70.80	0.04	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.08	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.85	0.04	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.08	68.00	67.20	0.05	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.08	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.08	30.43	32.48	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.08	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.05
Savannah St.	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	86.96	85.47	0.07	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	22.73	22.57	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	75.00	71.23	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.06	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	62.50	65.32	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.43	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.06	47.62	45.68	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
Boise St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.95	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.98	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	48.32	-0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	82.61	75.26	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	61.90	56.37	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.14	0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	73.91	76.66	0.05	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.05	69.57	69.99	0.04	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	31.82	30.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.05	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.05	8.70	10.09	-0.08	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.05	65.22	64.71	0.03	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.00	0.05	14.29	15.65	-0.00	-0.04
Stanford	P10	0.10	0.05	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.05	12.00	18.82	-0.08	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.05	23.81	27.31	-0.05	-0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.10	0.05	57.14	58.76	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.05	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.05	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.05	41.67	42.69	-0.02	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.05	61.90	63.69	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.05	28.57	31.03	-0.04	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.05	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.10	0.05	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.05	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.05	56.52	54.14	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.05	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.05	72.00	70.73	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.05	70.59	72.98	0.04	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	47.37	52.55	-0.00	0.00