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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:10.8
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:57
Current Record:20-4
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-42.52.36%
26-54.613.43%
25-67.628.53%
24-711.331.32%
23-816.117.37%
22-921.75.93%
21-1029.01.02%
20-1142.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Temple (73.6)AmerN91-67W100%0.0
11-15Fairfield (173.8)MAACH92-65W100%0.0
11-18Wofford (179.1)SCH78-58W100%0.0
11-21Northern Iowa (113.4)MVCA71-67L0%0.0
11-23Northwestern (120.6)B10N80-69W100%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (70.4)B12N80-70W100%0.0
12-1Maryland (5.4)B10H89-81W100%0.0
12-6Davidson (71.5)A10H98-65W100%0.0
12-12Texas (28.7)B12A84-82L0%0.0
12-16Tulane (231.7)AmerH96-72W100%0.0
12-19UCLA (69.9)P12N76-89W100%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (265.6)SBH94-70W100%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCH96-63W100%0.0
12-30Clemson (108.7)ACCH80-69W100%0.0
1-2Georgia Tech (87.9)ACCH86-78W100%0.0
1-4Florida St. (50.5)ACCA90-106W100%0.0
1-9Syracuse (46.3)ACCA73-84W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina St. (118.5)ACCH67-55W100%0.0
1-20Wake Forest (132.6)ACCH83-68W100%0.0
1-24Virginia Tech (130.4)ACCA70-75W100%0.0
1-30Boston College (233.1)ACCH89-62W100%0.0
2-1Louisville (18.1)ACCA71-65L0%0.0
2-6Notre Dame (31.2)ACCA80-76L0%0.0
2-9Boston College (233.1)ACCA65-68W100%0.0
2-14Pittsburgh (45.6)ACCH0-077%7.8
2-17Duke (17.5)ACCH0-062%3.3
2-20Miami FL (10.6)ACCH0-065%4.1
2-24North Carolina St. (118.5)ACCA0-071%6.0
2-27Virginia (5.7)ACCA0-037%-3.5
2-29Syracuse (46.3)ACCH0-081%9.5
3-5Duke (17.5)ACCA0-038%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1326.0387.5080.6019.6015.93
North Carolina St.ACC2.393.7852.1751.340.100.10
SyracuseACC2.433.7670.8367.831.011.34
Boston CollegeACC4.383.7531.8228.52-1.59-1.61
DukeACC0.473.7575.0073.300.241.75
Wake ForestACC2.522.2743.4841.28-0.33-0.40
Georgia TechACC2.432.2256.5253.710.320.17
ClemsonACC2.432.2260.8760.420.530.46
PittsburghACC0.482.2272.7369.180.220.85
Florida St.ACC2.472.2269.5765.510.970.69
Virginia TechACC2.432.2054.1750.540.200.02
LouisvilleACC2.432.1978.2675.201.371.11
Notre DameACC2.472.1969.5766.810.970.74
Miami FLACC0.392.1782.6179.050.251.26
VirginiaACC0.472.1783.3379.000.311.26
UNC GreensboroSC2.211.7527.2729.46-1.01-0.72
WoffordSC2.221.7247.8349.84-0.10-0.01
NorthwesternB102.261.7266.6764.160.750.49
TulaneAmer2.171.6937.5036.00-0.54-0.47
TexasB122.171.6965.2260.940.660.37
Appalachian St.SB2.171.6626.0929.08-1.04-0.70
Kansas St.B122.131.6660.8758.170.460.27
MarylandB102.171.6691.3086.571.791.22
DavidsonA102.081.6465.0060.330.620.34
UCLAP122.131.6456.5254.750.280.16
FairfieldMAAC2.121.6456.5255.970.280.20
TempleAmer2.081.6468.1864.510.760.48
Northern IowaMVC2.081.6154.1753.910.170.13
ConnecticutAmer0.300.2170.8370.130.130.08
MercerSC0.270.1966.6767.110.090.07
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1731.8234.54-0.07-0.05
SamfordSC0.220.1740.0041.68-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.180.1650.0044.640.00-0.02
VCUA100.140.1670.8371.030.060.07
WisconsinB100.170.1662.5056.990.040.02
IndianaB100.130.1680.0075.690.080.08
MichiganB100.130.1670.8366.750.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.170.1620.0019.72-0.10-0.10
Iowa St.B120.170.1670.8367.960.070.06
West VirginiaB120.170.1679.1778.100.100.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1460.8760.240.040.03
FurmanSC0.180.1456.0054.430.020.01
VMISC0.220.1419.0519.67-0.14-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1429.1733.75-0.07-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1337.5042.32-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.090.1350.0050.080.000.00
MinnesotaB100.170.1325.0027.25-0.09-0.06
Ohio St.B100.170.1360.0055.570.030.01
MissouriSEC0.170.1333.3330.27-0.06-0.05
UtahP120.050.1370.8368.530.020.05
GeorgetownBE0.090.1356.0052.860.010.01
Michigan St.B100.220.1380.0081.550.130.08
Penn St.B100.170.1350.0046.760.00-0.01
KansasB120.130.1382.6179.210.080.08
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1183.3383.710.090.08
The CitadelSC0.090.1130.4329.49-0.03-0.05
DuquesneA100.140.1160.8756.270.030.01
George MasonA100.090.1133.3333.62-0.03-0.04
RichmondA100.130.1156.5255.820.020.01
PurdueB100.040.1180.0077.900.030.06
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1168.1865.570.060.03
IowaB100.170.1179.1778.890.100.06
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1180.7781.890.110.07
RutgersB100.130.1121.7420.33-0.07-0.06
CornellIvy0.090.1140.0039.00-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.130.1152.1754.970.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1141.6739.50-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.1170.8367.980.040.04
MemphisAmer0.090.1158.3359.310.010.02
NebraskaB100.090.1152.0050.770.000.00
SienaMAAC0.040.1165.3864.920.010.03
TulsaAmer0.130.1166.6764.730.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.040.1047.8351.93-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.170.1037.5037.68-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1060.0062.260.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.1056.0053.630.010.01
BaylorB120.130.1073.9168.450.060.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.1042.8641.32-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.1075.0072.620.040.05
OklahomaB120.130.1086.9682.620.100.07
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1045.8342.30-0.01-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.1036.3636.29-0.02-0.03
TCUB120.090.1045.8339.36-0.01-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1075.0075.350.060.05
Texas TechB120.130.1060.8755.310.030.01
WashingtonP120.170.1062.5060.140.040.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0875.0071.980.020.04
La SalleA100.090.0819.0520.30-0.06-0.05
CaliforniaP120.050.0866.6764.780.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0847.8348.57-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0883.3381.270.060.05
FordhamA100.090.0852.3850.690.000.00
High PointBSth0.090.0857.1459.870.010.02
Saint LouisA100.140.0834.7832.39-0.04-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0872.7370.390.040.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0858.3359.970.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.0011.95-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0856.0054.080.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0845.8343.78-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.130.0838.4641.36-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.130.0838.1039.12-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0872.0071.570.060.03
DrakeMVC0.120.0820.8323.28-0.07-0.04
IllinoisB100.040.0845.8344.06-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0843.4843.76-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0887.5086.850.030.06
DelawareCAA0.130.0825.0024.91-0.07-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.130.0859.0955.160.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0839.1342.83-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.130.0834.7836.54-0.04-0.02
LSUSEC0.090.0862.5059.070.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0848.0048.59-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.090.0886.9682.930.060.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0872.2275.710.060.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0845.4554.18-0.010.01
Washington St.P120.130.0834.7831.64-0.04-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.040.0868.1867.120.020.03
YaleIvy0.040.0875.0075.100.020.04
ColgatePat0.090.0843.4844.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.0840.0043.49-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0868.1871.340.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0654.5555.550.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0652.1753.440.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0660.8758.910.010.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0643.4842.42-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0656.0055.750.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0529.1733.08-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0557.1457.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0523.8125.48-0.05-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0560.8755.980.020.01
ButlerBE0.050.0570.8368.990.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0542.3144.49-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0572.0073.080.020.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0566.6766.320.010.02
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0550.0049.490.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0560.8760.730.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0545.4543.17-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0521.7424.25-0.02-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0537.5037.41-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0523.0823.85-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.040.0573.6875.880.020.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0534.7834.94-0.01-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0543.4844.24-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0573.0872.610.040.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0552.1751.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0573.9176.700.020.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0550.0052.940.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0554.5552.530.010.00
DePaulBE0.090.0533.3334.02-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0566.6766.780.030.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0533.3335.19-0.03-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0545.0048.15-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0533.3336.30-0.03-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0514.2924.87-0.06-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0513.0412.96-0.06-0.04
ArizonaP120.090.0580.0078.730.050.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0586.3684.240.030.04
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0540.9138.83-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0524.0024.92-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0554.1754.420.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0512.5013.26-0.07-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.040.0555.0053.660.000.00
IUPUISum0.040.0538.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0545.4549.06-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.090.0532.0031.17-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0543.4844.81-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0559.0956.880.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0526.3232.42-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.040.0579.1777.220.030.03
Oregon St.P120.040.0563.6458.770.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0572.0069.130.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0533.3332.04-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.040.0525.0023.43-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.040.0547.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0540.0038.87-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.040.0522.7324.37-0.02-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0569.5770.020.030.02
USCP120.090.0575.0071.140.040.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0547.6249.27-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0566.6763.790.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0387.5083.730.040.02
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.650.020.01
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.470.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0323.8129.52-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0345.4543.88-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0365.2260.710.000.01
BYUWCC0.040.0368.0070.260.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0327.2727.81-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.78-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0330.0031.18-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.1753.740.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0385.0083.450.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.150.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0360.8762.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0319.0525.89-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0365.3865.500.000.01
OhioMAC0.040.0365.2263.630.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0386.9680.430.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.040.0382.6183.030.030.02
UMBCAE0.040.0323.0825.89-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0321.7422.42-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0314.2915.47-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0360.8762.520.010.01
XavierBE0.040.0387.5081.840.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.24-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.71-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0370.8365.570.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0340.0043.21-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0383.3382.090.030.02
Green BayHorz0.040.0356.5257.690.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.290.010.01
HartfordAE0.040.0324.0024.55-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0322.2231.13-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.940.010.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.24-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0362.5064.110.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0358.3360.910.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.039.0917.13-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0352.1754.090.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.140.000.00
South DakotaSum0.040.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0361.9065.340.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0376.1972.410.020.01
UABCUSA0.040.0383.3379.820.030.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.080.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.95-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00