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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.3
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:1
Current Record:16-4
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-41.20.72%
26-51.74.76%
25-62.614.33%
24-73.825.57%
23-85.226.01%
22-97.217.78%
21-1010.28.01%
20-1114.42.35%
19-1220.10.42%
18-1327.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCH86-69W100%0.0
11-15Bucknell (84.9)PatH93-81W100%0.0
11-20Stanford (89.4)P12A72-96W100%0.0
11-23Portland (257.0)WCCN78-102W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas (41.6)SECN68-87W100%0.0
11-26Michigan St. (21.2)B10N63-45L0%0.0
11-29Michigan (38.7)B10H86-71W100%0.0
12-1Davidson (82.5)A10A75-85W100%0.0
12-3Tulane (107.4)AmerH97-73W100%0.0
12-6Western Carolina (223.5)SCH104-61W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee (23.9)SECA73-78W100%0.0
12-20Wofford (119.5)SCH75-79L0%0.0
12-23Ohio St. (21.0)B10N86-72W100%0.0
12-30Wake Forest (129.1)ACCH73-69W100%0.0
1-3Florida St. (40.6)ACCA81-80L0%0.0
1-6Virginia (4.4)ACCA61-49L0%0.0
1-9Boston College (97.8)ACCH96-66W100%0.0
1-13Notre Dame (57.5)ACCA68-69W100%0.0
1-16Clemson (14.2)ACCH87-79W100%0.0
1-20Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCH80-66W100%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA0-064%4.0
1-27North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCH0-089%13.4
1-30Clemson (14.2)ACCA0-056%1.7
2-3Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCH0-098%23.0
2-8Duke (3.1)ACCH0-049%-0.3
2-10North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCA0-074%7.0
2-12Notre Dame (57.5)ACCH0-075%7.3
2-17Louisville (24.8)ACCA0-054%1.0
2-21Syracuse (43.7)ACCA0-065%4.4
2-27Miami FL (28.3)ACCH0-076%7.8
3-3Duke (3.1)ACCA0-027%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.3426.0479.5575.7515.5613.41
North Carolina St.ACC0.483.8468.4260.460.180.80
ClemsonACC2.763.8188.8976.872.152.05
Notre DameACC2.763.7866.6764.500.921.10
DukeACC0.263.7589.4786.810.212.76
Georgia TechACC2.852.2855.5644.560.32-0.25
Wake ForestACC2.642.2447.0642.57-0.16-0.33
Florida St.ACC2.632.2272.2268.561.170.82
Boston CollegeACC2.772.2072.2256.891.230.30
Virginia TechACC0.202.1968.4258.510.080.37
VirginiaACC2.712.1994.1284.942.391.53
PittsburghACC0.072.1940.0031.84-0.01-0.80
SyracuseACC0.272.1768.4262.150.100.53
LouisvilleACC0.202.1777.7870.120.110.87
Miami FLACC0.202.1776.4770.570.100.89
Ohio St.B102.751.7785.0079.071.931.03
Michigan St.B102.691.7784.2182.611.841.16
TennesseeSEC2.701.7476.4771.301.430.74
Western CarolinaSC2.571.7241.1836.61-0.45-0.46
WoffordSC2.571.6966.6762.270.860.42
MichiganB102.621.6978.9572.701.520.77
ArkansasSEC2.631.6772.2266.341.170.54
Northern IowaMVC2.501.6650.0054.450.000.15
DavidsonA102.571.6462.5063.630.640.45
TulaneAmer2.571.6466.6759.890.860.32
BucknellPat2.571.6465.0070.270.770.66
StanfordP122.561.6457.8952.050.400.07
PortlandWCC2.501.6129.4128.31-1.03-0.70
IndianaB100.190.2657.8950.680.030.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.290.2268.7567.640.110.08
FloridaSEC0.260.2173.6871.550.120.09
VMISC0.220.1925.0024.17-0.11-0.10
SamfordSC0.280.1927.7832.66-0.12-0.07
The CitadelSC0.270.1918.7518.40-0.17-0.12
FurmanSC0.150.1966.6768.500.050.07
MarylandB100.240.1870.0065.320.100.06
Penn St.B100.000.1861.9055.770.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.210.1661.1151.900.050.01
MinnesotaB100.190.1663.6457.640.050.02
LSUSEC0.190.1661.1153.160.040.01
PurdueB100.130.1690.4888.380.110.12
IowaB100.120.1647.6244.03-0.01-0.02
RutgersB100.250.1657.8947.140.04-0.01
MercerSC0.140.1444.4454.89-0.020.01
RichmondA100.270.1331.5834.35-0.10-0.04
IllinoisB100.130.1347.3744.27-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.1373.6867.950.030.05
MississippiSEC0.070.1352.6345.860.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.130.1355.0050.370.010.00
WisconsinB100.130.1350.0046.260.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.1177.7879.160.040.07
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1122.2228.59-0.08-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.1150.0055.650.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1152.6347.360.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.220.1140.0047.86-0.04-0.00
FordhamA100.210.1131.5829.06-0.08-0.05
George WashingtonA100.140.1145.0043.49-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.200.1142.1134.32-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.200.1131.5835.15-0.07-0.03
VCUA100.190.1160.0059.690.040.02
TempleAmer0.130.1152.6351.730.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.130.1158.8263.210.020.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1120.0028.72-0.08-0.05
La SalleA100.130.1140.0042.72-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.200.1178.9572.990.120.05
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1136.8435.55-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.1166.6755.930.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1121.0544.26-0.07-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1052.6347.390.01-0.01
LehighPat0.130.1038.8944.75-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.190.1065.0062.040.060.03
NavyPat0.000.1060.0055.160.000.01
NebraskaB100.190.1066.6759.780.060.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.1029.4127.74-0.03-0.05
ArizonaP120.060.1080.0078.980.040.06
ColgatePat0.130.1050.0051.040.000.00
DrakeMVC0.140.0855.0049.070.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.130.0880.9583.260.080.06
PacificWCC0.130.0845.0044.46-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.0850.0048.740.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0852.6350.250.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.140.080.003.12-0.14-0.08
SMUAmer0.210.0870.0070.630.080.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0883.3381.410.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.200.0833.3337.22-0.07-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.700.020.03
CaliforniaP120.140.0836.8431.12-0.04-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0852.9455.040.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0878.9577.360.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.130.0861.1158.750.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.200.0845.0041.34-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.130.0821.4326.21-0.08-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0865.0058.490.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0842.1144.97-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0855.5656.710.010.01
ArmyPat0.130.0861.1160.530.030.02
AuburnSEC0.140.0889.4777.030.110.04
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0850.0053.160.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0833.3333.80-0.02-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.130.0822.2228.67-0.07-0.03
MissouriSEC0.140.0866.6763.200.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0868.4254.090.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0827.7840.97-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.060.0863.1657.620.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0868.4263.980.030.02
BryantNEC0.000.089.5217.080.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.180.0863.1663.180.050.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0857.1460.400.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0827.7831.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0852.9459.250.000.01
WashingtonP120.060.0870.0061.440.030.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.870.020.01
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.230.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3745.870.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0677.7871.650.040.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0627.7829.11-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.420.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0610.5318.340.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.4888.940.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.140.0663.1657.540.040.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.96-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0650.0051.360.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0660.0062.030.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.0612.5025.47-0.10-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.0627.7838.13-0.07-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
VillanovaBE0.140.0694.7490.310.130.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.140.0552.6346.880.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.0577.7867.900.080.02
Texas TechB120.140.0578.9571.810.080.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0510.5316.75-0.10-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0523.5325.63-0.08-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0589.4785.520.050.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0568.7563.960.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0583.3384.230.050.04
DuquesneA100.000.0570.0058.100.000.01
George MasonA100.070.0545.0041.35-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0550.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.91-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0547.3743.04-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.480.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.470.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0583.3381.350.040.03
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.44-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0535.0026.140.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0541.1838.46-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0533.3335.19-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0555.0053.290.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0568.4258.990.000.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0521.0525.98-0.04-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0510.0019.62-0.05-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.130.0547.0641.45-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.940.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0527.7840.88-0.06-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0527.7834.50-0.06-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0584.2178.170.050.03
AmericanPat0.060.0526.3228.14-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.040.03
ElonCAA0.000.0552.6351.090.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.37-0.06-0.03
KansasB120.060.0584.2179.740.040.03
LafayettePat0.060.0522.2227.51-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.130.0540.0043.34-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0570.5973.140.030.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0561.9065.160.010.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0561.1160.790.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0530.0031.69-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0573.6872.360.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0547.3742.180.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.120.0538.8946.68-0.03-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0521.0524.710.00-0.03
USCP120.060.0571.4368.300.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0566.6766.010.000.02
Washington St.P120.060.0550.0042.180.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0526.3230.43-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.970.040.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.810.010.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.46-0.05-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.280.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.070.050.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0362.5058.700.020.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0341.1843.410.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.530.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0352.9457.320.000.00
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.360.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.270.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0331.5830.00-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0317.6523.89-0.04-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0368.4260.880.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0370.0068.050.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.900.000.01
ButlerBE0.060.0366.6763.070.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.520.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.730.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.05-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.360.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.980.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0338.8946.03-0.01-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0370.0071.230.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0363.1666.880.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.86-0.05-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.700.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0325.0028.020.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.830.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0357.8950.810.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.460.030.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.49-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0067.890.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.690.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0363.1666.000.000.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0370.5969.610.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.02-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.000.0361.1158.950.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0373.6877.120.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.980.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.240.020.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.51-0.01-0.00