live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:9.5
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:136
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-01.00.05%
28-11.00.41%
27-21.41.88%
26-31.85.45%
25-42.810.58%
24-54.216.75%
23-66.519.30%
22-79.718.15%
21-814.113.17%
20-919.58.16%
19-1026.13.81%
18-1134.31.45%
17-1243.60.63%
16-1352.50.17%
15-1465.00.01%
14-1585.00.01%
13-16108.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCH86-69W100%0.0
11-15Bucknell (96.6)PatH93-81W100%0.0
11-20Stanford (98.1)P12A0-080%10.3
11-23Portland (268.0)WCCN0-099%26.6
11-29Michigan (60.4)B10H0-083%11.4
12-1Davidson (46.9)A10N0-079%9.8
12-3Tulane (133.8)AmerH0-096%20.4
12-6Western Carolina (294.1)SCH0-0100%35.0
12-17Tennessee (96.3)SECA0-077%8.8
12-20Wofford (238.5)SCH0-099%27.6
12-23Ohio St. (85.4)B10N0-082%10.8
12-30Wake Forest (166.4)ACCH0-094%18.8
1-3Florida St. (40.2)ACCA0-058%2.5
1-6Virginia (15.8)ACCA0-047%-0.8
1-9Boston College (152.8)ACCH0-093%18.0
1-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA0-051%0.2
1-16Clemson (64.3)ACCH0-087%13.4
1-20Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCH0-086%13.1
1-22Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-063%3.9
1-27North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCH0-090%15.3
1-30Clemson (64.3)ACCA0-073%7.4
2-3Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCH0-096%21.1
2-8Duke (6.8)ACCH0-057%2.0
2-10North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCA0-078%9.3
2-12Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH0-070%6.2
2-17Louisville (28.0)ACCA0-057%2.1
2-21Syracuse (45.7)ACCA0-066%5.0
2-27Miami FL (24.3)ACCH0-069%6.1
3-3Duke (6.8)ACCA0-037%-4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC32.2926.10100.0078.8332.2915.05
ClemsonACC0.004.09100.0057.550.000.62
North Carolina St.ACC0.004.07100.0057.540.000.61
Notre DameACC0.004.03100.0076.330.002.12
DukeACC0.004.00100.0085.840.002.87
Georgia TechACC0.002.470.0058.970.000.44
Wake ForestACC0.002.4325.0036.040.00-0.68
Florida St.ACC0.002.40100.0069.110.000.92
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3775.0046.620.00-0.16
Virginia TechACC0.002.3775.0062.770.000.61
PittsburghACC0.002.3733.3335.620.00-0.68
VirginiaACC0.002.37100.0074.910.001.18
SyracuseACC0.002.34100.0063.190.000.62
LouisvilleACC0.002.34100.0067.790.000.83
Miami FLACC0.002.33100.0076.130.001.22
Western CarolinaSC0.001.850.0022.170.00-1.03
Ohio St.B100.001.84100.0061.360.000.42
WoffordSC0.001.810.0041.180.00-0.32
MichiganB100.001.78100.0063.310.000.47
TennesseeSEC0.001.78100.0049.270.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.001.75100.0071.970.000.77
TulaneAmer0.001.75100.0055.860.000.21
BucknellPat25.001.720.0063.51-25.000.47
Northern IowaMVC25.001.72100.0065.7525.000.54
PortlandWCC0.001.720.0030.850.00-0.66
StanfordP120.001.7275.0050.940.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.240.0056.560.000.03
IndianaB100.000.2433.3341.220.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.2133.3327.450.00-0.10
FurmanSC0.000.2150.0059.440.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.2133.3330.460.00-0.08
SamfordSC0.000.1833.3347.970.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1850.0077.820.000.10
Penn St.B100.000.18100.0060.400.000.04
MercerSC0.000.1575.0076.250.000.08
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1575.0058.930.000.03
RichmondA100.000.150.0030.280.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.15100.0080.230.000.09
PurdueB100.000.15100.0085.360.000.10
IowaB100.000.15100.0058.250.000.02
MarylandB103.120.14100.0071.743.120.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0051.900.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6745.880.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.120.0038.990.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1233.3357.840.000.02
FordhamA100.000.1233.3336.170.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.1233.3347.540.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.12100.0071.700.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.120.0064.600.000.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1233.3335.310.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0083.700.000.08
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.0016.000.00-0.08
RutgersB100.000.12100.0046.880.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1275.0071.830.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1275.0055.040.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0050.360.000.00
UCLAP120.000.12100.0064.910.000.03
NavyPat0.000.1250.0052.870.000.01
LehighPat0.000.1166.6751.580.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.1150.0050.310.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.1050.0035.740.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0086.180.000.07
PacificWCC0.000.100.0033.520.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1066.6756.400.000.01
Chicago St.WAC4.170.090.007.67-4.17-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.09100.0059.250.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0048.130.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.090.0028.720.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0054.450.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0036.690.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0966.6749.990.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0033.700.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.090.0044.130.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0966.6740.170.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0966.6766.590.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3345.540.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.09100.0053.240.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.09100.0053.790.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0059.240.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.090.0036.070.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0034.040.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0044.630.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.090.0030.230.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0966.6748.280.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0950.0049.480.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3359.680.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0950.0046.810.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.090.0047.690.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0950.0053.620.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0050.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.080.0038.210.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.320.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0733.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3343.810.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.07100.0057.270.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0750.0034.730.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0766.6763.230.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.070.0031.910.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0088.360.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.07100.0052.950.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.070.0042.340.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC4.170.060.0037.12-4.17-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0030.910.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC3.120.06100.0071.183.120.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
MonmouthMAAC3.120.0666.6759.741.040.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0666.6742.170.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0066.490.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0035.130.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0021.010.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.910.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3338.050.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0065.140.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3350.220.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.030.0047.400.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0325.0054.930.000.00