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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.0
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:11
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-75.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tulane (296.0)AmerN75-95W100%0.0
11-13Chattanooga (139.0)SCH97-57W100%0.0
11-15Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH93-67W100%0.0
11-18Hawaii (300.0)BWA68-83W100%0.0
11-22Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12N107-75W100%0.0
11-23Wisconsin (35.0)B10N71-56W100%0.0
11-30Indiana (79.0)B10A76-67L0%0.0
12-4Radford (227.0)BSthH95-50W100%0.0
12-7Davidson (93.0)A10H83-74W100%0.0
12-11Tennessee (82.0)SECH73-71W100%0.0
12-17Kentucky (3.0)SECN100-103L0%0.0
12-21Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH85-42W100%0.0
12-28Monmouth (49.0)MAACH102-74W100%0.0
12-31Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA75-63L0%0.0
1-3Clemson (69.0)ACCA86-89W100%0.0
1-8North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH107-56W100%0.0
1-11Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA87-93W100%0.0
1-14Florida St. (14.0)ACCH96-83W100%0.0
1-16Syracuse (84.0)ACCH85-68W100%0.0
1-21Boston College (219.0)ACCA82-90W100%0.0
1-26Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH91-72W100%0.0
1-28Miami FL (41.0)ACCA77-62L0%0.0
1-31Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH80-78W100%0.0
2-5Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN83-76W100%0.0
2-9Duke (6.0)ACCA86-78L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA73-97W100%0.0
2-18Virginia (18.0)ACCH65-41W100%0.0
2-22Louisville (7.0)ACCH74-63W100%0.0
2-25Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA67-85W100%0.0
2-27Virginia (18.0)ACCA53-43L0%0.0
3-4Duke (6.0)ACCH90-83W100%0.0
3-9Miami FL (41.0)ACCN78-53W100%0.0
3-10Duke (6.0)ACCN83-93L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1026.1081.7581.7516.5716.57
DukeACC5.115.1178.1278.122.872.87
Miami FLACC3.633.6366.6766.671.211.21
PittsburghACC3.623.6251.6151.610.120.12
VirginiaACC3.613.6170.0070.001.441.44
North Carolina St.ACC3.573.5750.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC2.232.2377.4277.421.221.22
Wake ForestACC2.192.1961.2961.290.490.49
Notre DameACC2.192.1975.7675.761.131.13
ClemsonACC2.192.1954.8454.840.210.21
Georgia TechACC2.172.1750.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
Florida St.ACC2.162.1678.1278.121.221.22
Virginia TechACC2.142.1470.9770.970.900.90
Boston CollegeACC2.072.0729.0329.03-0.87-0.87
TennesseeSEC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB101.631.6375.7675.760.840.84
Long Beach St.BW1.621.6241.9441.94-0.26-0.26
IndianaB101.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
KentuckySEC1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
HawaiiBW1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
ChattanoogaSC1.541.5460.7160.710.330.33
TulaneAmer1.541.5420.0020.00-0.92-0.92
DavidsonA101.541.5454.8454.840.150.15
MonmouthMAAC1.541.5484.3884.381.061.06
RadfordBSth1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Northern IowaMVC1.521.5246.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Oklahoma St.B121.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
KansasB120.210.2187.5087.500.150.15
FloridaSEC0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Penn St.B100.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
MichiganB100.140.1468.5768.570.050.05
NorthwesternB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Arizona St.P120.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
ElonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
MaineAE0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01