live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:4.6
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:30
Current Record:20-3
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:37.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-31.46.05%
27-42.322.40%
26-53.932.45%
25-65.825.06%
24-78.411.12%
23-812.42.59%
22-919.30.30%
21-1026.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan St. (8.2)B10N67-55W100%0.0
11-13NC Asheville (115.4)BSthA75-91W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH101-75W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee St. (155.4)OVCH102-69W100%0.0
11-25South Carolina (172.1)SECN87-62W100%0.0
11-26Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCA90-80L0%0.0
11-30Wisconsin (21.8)B10H60-57W100%0.0
12-3Kentucky (4.3)SECA73-72L0%0.0
12-6Evansville (156.6)MVCH97-48W100%0.0
12-10Long Beach St. (39.1)BWH84-78W100%0.0
12-17Appalachian St. (249.5)SCH97-82W100%0.0
12-19Nicholls St. (314.5)SlndH99-49W100%0.0
12-21Texas (58.4)B12H82-63W100%0.0
12-29Elon (223.5)SCH100-62W100%0.0
1-1Monmouth (275.8)NECH102-65W100%0.0
1-7Boston College (248.2)ACCH83-60W100%0.0
1-10Miami FL (64.4)ACCH73-56W100%0.0
1-14Florida St. (21.9)ACCA90-57L0%0.0
1-19Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA68-82W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCH74-55W100%0.0
1-29Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH93-81W100%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA53-68W100%0.0
2-4Maryland (112.8)ACCA74-83W100%0.0
2-8Duke (4.2)ACCH0-067%4.8
2-11Virginia (39.5)ACCH0-078%8.5
2-15Miami FL (64.4)ACCA0-073%6.7
2-18Clemson (148.3)ACCH0-093%15.8
2-21North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA0-071%6.1
2-25Virginia (39.5)ACCA0-056%1.7
2-29Maryland (112.8)ACCH0-097%19.8
3-3Duke (4.2)ACCA0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1326.1189.8985.4120.8418.49
North Carolina St.ACC2.663.8273.9167.871.271.37
MarylandACC2.463.7961.9054.320.590.33
Miami FLACC2.423.7968.4263.470.891.02
DukeACC0.293.7686.3685.730.212.69
VirginiaACC0.293.7381.8279.940.192.24
Florida St.ACC2.422.2571.4370.731.040.93
Virginia TechACC2.412.2359.0957.040.440.31
Boston CollegeACC2.462.2031.8227.35-0.89-1.00
ClemsonACC0.342.2050.0049.780.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC2.422.2040.9143.57-0.44-0.28
Wake ForestACC2.462.2050.0045.160.00-0.21
South CarolinaSEC2.421.7842.8640.93-0.35-0.32
ElonSC2.321.7552.6349.420.12-0.02
Michigan St.B102.271.7480.0075.431.360.89
Appalachian St.SC2.281.7336.8440.80-0.60-0.32
WisconsinB102.321.7278.2676.441.310.91
TexasB122.271.6963.6463.420.620.45
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.321.6952.3860.160.110.34
KentuckySEC2.271.6795.6592.322.081.41
Tennessee St.OVC2.271.6759.0955.070.410.17
NC AshevilleBSth2.221.6671.4370.240.950.67
MonmouthNEC2.221.6429.1729.87-0.93-0.66
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.221.6481.8280.801.411.01
Nicholls St.Slnd2.221.6426.3224.67-1.05-0.83
EvansvilleMVC2.171.6147.6245.65-0.10-0.14
Long Beach St.BW2.171.6175.0076.061.090.84
NC GreensboroSC0.270.2534.7833.46-0.08-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2334.7837.24-0.08-0.06
SamfordSC0.260.2033.3335.26-0.09-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1945.4544.66-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.240.1975.0075.780.120.10
MichiganB100.100.1972.7366.810.040.06
Ohio St.B100.090.1886.9685.460.070.13
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1869.5765.870.050.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.1760.8759.760.040.03
WinthropBSth0.050.1734.7834.61-0.02-0.05
WoffordSC0.200.1759.0957.930.040.03
CampbellBSth0.250.1756.0055.650.030.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.150.1659.0957.280.030.02
MinnesotaB100.150.1669.5761.310.060.04
FloridaSEC0.200.1682.6177.630.130.09
IllinoisB100.190.1672.7364.430.090.05
KansasB120.140.1678.2678.390.080.09
College of CharlestonSC0.210.1558.3359.980.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1527.2735.02-0.07-0.04
RadfordBSth0.140.148.7013.10-0.12-0.10
MassachusettsA100.210.1473.9168.580.100.05
AuburnSEC0.250.1456.5248.810.03-0.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1457.1449.540.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.150.1463.6456.710.040.02
PurdueB100.150.1465.2260.580.050.03
AlabamaSEC0.190.1368.1869.100.070.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1345.4541.20-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.190.1352.3846.680.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.140.1341.6738.67-0.02-0.03
TempleA100.100.1377.2775.060.050.07
FurmanSC0.110.1247.6248.83-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.110.129.5211.44-0.09-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1134.7838.77-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.160.1152.3852.860.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1185.7178.050.110.06
DavidsonSC0.050.1176.1976.760.030.06
Cal PolyBW0.200.1150.0056.760.000.02
DrakeMVC0.050.1152.1750.090.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1117.6527.10-0.09-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1130.0037.30-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1150.0048.900.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1140.9143.66-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.150.1147.3752.87-0.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1135.2939.85-0.04-0.02
Kansas St.B120.150.1172.7368.280.070.04
NorthwesternB100.190.1161.9055.140.050.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.1166.6760.800.020.02
IowaB100.100.1154.1749.440.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.1126.0928.60-0.04-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1045.4540.70-0.01-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0965.0066.700.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0927.7829.87-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0972.2271.970.020.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.0940.0041.30-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.150.0931.8232.75-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.098.708.99-0.13-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0927.7829.58-0.05-0.04
CreightonMVC0.000.0987.5085.410.000.06
LamarSlnd0.100.0961.9067.230.020.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0834.7832.06-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0842.8639.66-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0855.5658.010.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.150.0882.6180.420.100.05
BradleyMVC0.140.0824.0024.86-0.07-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.100.0842.8641.13-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.100.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
BelmontASun0.050.0869.5773.280.020.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0845.4546.99-0.01-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0839.1336.10-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0881.8281.030.060.05
Notre DameBE0.100.0865.2262.650.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0810.0014.93-0.04-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0831.8242.13-0.04-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0860.0060.420.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0869.5765.150.040.02
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0833.3337.16-0.03-0.02
George MasonCAA0.040.0876.0072.500.020.04
HarvardIvy0.140.0890.4887.910.110.06
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0835.0039.38-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0873.9168.430.070.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0838.8943.93-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.0820.8320.60-0.08-0.05
Texas TechB120.090.0831.8225.98-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0860.0059.060.020.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
SyracuseBE0.090.0895.8392.010.080.07
LibertyBSth0.100.0627.2727.21-0.04-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0641.1842.61-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0655.0054.480.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0633.3335.97-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0621.0522.46-0.06-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0650.0051.730.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.060.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0656.5254.220.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0634.7838.42-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0630.0034.15-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0654.1757.200.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.06100.0094.550.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0662.5061.500.010.01
PacificBW0.050.0635.0037.47-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.064.359.66-0.09-0.05
UC DavisBW0.050.060.005.37-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0655.0060.330.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.100.0668.1863.990.040.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0654.5556.090.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.100.0661.9058.590.020.01
NavyPat0.100.069.5213.19-0.08-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0626.3229.79-0.05-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.0676.1975.940.050.03
Texas St.Slnd0.100.0622.2227.62-0.06-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0625.0037.58-0.05-0.01
St. LouisA100.090.0677.2777.670.050.03
CharlotteA100.050.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0636.3639.72-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0665.2265.170.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.100.0578.2672.660.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6723.02-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0517.3924.41-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0566.6762.650.020.01
CornellIvy0.050.0536.8441.45-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0579.1778.100.000.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.0515.0015.73-0.03-0.04
HawaiiWAC0.050.0557.1453.120.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0579.1780.100.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0519.0525.52-0.03-0.03
Longwoodind0.000.0530.0027.84-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0520.0019.96-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0569.5764.530.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.0040.78-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0556.5250.270.010.00
Seattleind0.000.0523.5333.28-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.0046.13-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0525.0025.13-0.05-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.054.005.26-0.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.050.0576.1970.730.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0543.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.090.058.3310.86-0.08-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0545.4545.70-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0540.9138.38-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.090.0540.9134.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.090.0577.2773.450.050.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0578.2672.340.000.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.0534.7835.20-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0552.3857.860.000.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0556.5257.720.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0590.9183.850.040.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0575.0076.000.050.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.058.7012.13-0.00-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.040.0570.8371.050.020.02
MissouriB120.090.0591.3087.180.080.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0559.0954.700.000.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.000.0554.5556.840.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0568.0070.030.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0556.5255.950.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0521.7422.76-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0582.6184.570.030.04
WashingtonP120.000.0569.5766.540.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0540.9142.96-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.03-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0334.7835.50-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0381.8277.200.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0360.8758.160.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
ArizonaP120.000.0366.6768.550.000.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.03-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
BrownIvy0.040.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
LafayettePat0.040.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.040.0356.5257.150.010.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00