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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.0
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:20
Current Record:28-6
Expected Record:28-6
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-65.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Temple (60.0)AmerN91-67W100%0.0
11-15Fairfield (142.0)MAACH92-65W100%0.0
11-18Wofford (199.0)SCH78-58W100%0.0
11-21Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA71-67L0%0.0
11-23Northwestern (115.0)B10N80-69W100%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (92.0)B12N80-70W100%0.0
12-1Maryland (14.0)B10H89-81W100%0.0
12-6Davidson (64.0)A10H98-65W100%0.0
12-12Texas (27.0)B12A84-82L0%0.0
12-16Tulane (227.0)AmerH96-72W100%0.0
12-19UCLA (102.0)P12N76-89W100%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH94-70W100%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH96-63W100%0.0
12-30Clemson (131.0)ACCH80-69W100%0.0
1-2Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH86-78W100%0.0
1-4Florida St. (82.0)ACCA90-106W100%0.0
1-9Syracuse (72.0)ACCA73-84W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH67-55W100%0.0
1-20Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH83-68W100%0.0
1-24Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA70-75W100%0.0
1-30Boston College (250.0)ACCH89-62W100%0.0
2-1Louisville (17.0)ACCA71-65L0%0.0
2-6Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA80-76L0%0.0
2-9Boston College (250.0)ACCA65-68W100%0.0
2-14Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH85-64W100%0.0
2-17Duke (20.0)ACCH73-74L0%0.0
2-20Miami FL (9.0)ACCH96-71W100%0.0
2-24North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA68-80W100%0.0
2-27Virginia (3.0)ACCA79-74L0%0.0
2-29Syracuse (72.0)ACCH75-70W100%0.0
3-5Duke (20.0)ACCA72-76W100%0.0
3-10Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCN88-71W100%0.0
3-11Notre Dame (31.0)ACCN78-47W100%0.0
3-12Virginia (3.0)ACCN61-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1026.1084.7284.7218.1318.13
North Carolina St.ACC3.563.5651.6151.610.110.11
DukeACC3.563.5670.9770.971.491.49
PittsburghACC3.563.5668.9768.971.351.35
SyracuseACC3.543.5463.3363.330.940.94
Notre DameACC3.543.5466.6766.671.181.18
VirginiaACC3.523.5280.6580.652.152.15
Boston CollegeACC3.513.5123.3323.33-1.87-1.87
Georgia TechACC2.182.1859.3859.380.410.41
Wake ForestACC2.182.1836.6736.67-0.58-0.58
Virginia TechACC2.142.1459.3859.380.400.40
Florida St.ACC2.132.1361.2961.290.480.48
Miami FLACC2.132.1380.6580.651.311.31
ClemsonACC2.112.1156.6756.670.280.28
LouisvilleACC2.092.0973.3373.330.970.97
UNC GreensboroSC1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
WoffordSC1.571.5744.8344.83-0.16-0.16
NorthwesternB101.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
TulaneAmer1.541.5436.3636.36-0.42-0.42
TexasB121.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
DavidsonA101.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
Kansas St.B121.521.5253.1253.120.090.09
MarylandB101.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
Appalachian St.SB1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
UCLAP121.491.4948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC1.491.4961.2961.290.340.34
TempleAmer1.491.4967.7467.740.530.53
Northern IowaMVC1.471.4762.5062.500.370.37
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
VCUA100.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
IndianaB100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
UCFAmer0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
FurmanSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Ohio St.B100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
KansasB120.140.1487.8887.880.100.10
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VMISC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
ElonCAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
NebraskaB100.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01