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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:24.8
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:215
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-21.00.01%
26-31.90.10%
25-42.50.37%
24-53.71.73%
23-65.53.68%
22-77.97.74%
21-811.513.32%
20-916.117.09%
19-1022.117.57%
18-1129.815.85%
17-1238.910.70%
16-1350.66.99%
15-1462.73.27%
14-1575.61.14%
13-1690.70.38%
12-17113.70.03%
11-18146.00.01%
10-19134.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina Central (171.3)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
11-16Robert Morris (278.5)NECH103-59W100%0.0
11-22Davidson (135.8)A10N0-083%11.5
11-26Butler (106.7)BEN0-075%8.1
12-3Iowa (29.3)B10H0-060%3.0
12-7East Carolina (227.2)AmerH0-096%20.5
12-13Kentucky (4.2)SECA0-020%-10.2
12-16UNC Greensboro (326.3)SCA0-096%21.4
12-20Ohio St. (32.4)B10N0-049%-0.3
12-27UAB (197.0)CUSAH0-094%18.5
12-30William & Mary (181.5)CAAH0-095%19.7
1-3Clemson (139.2)ACCA0-064%4.4
1-5Notre Dame (56.9)ACCH0-066%5.0
1-10Louisville (10.5)ACCH0-047%-0.8
1-14North Carolina St. (59.1)ACCA0-053%0.9
1-18Virginia Tech (184.3)ACCH0-092%16.9
1-21Wake Forest (136.6)ACCA0-072%7.0
1-24Florida St. (86.5)ACCH0-077%9.0
1-26Syracuse (24.9)ACCH0-060%3.0
1-31Louisville (10.5)ACCA0-025%-7.9
2-2Virginia (12.4)ACCH0-053%0.9
2-7Boston College (151.3)ACCA0-073%7.4
2-14Pittsburgh (98.3)ACCA0-061%3.4
2-18Duke (2.7)ACCA0-015%-12.5
2-21Georgia Tech (88.1)ACCH0-082%10.9
2-24North Carolina St. (59.1)ACCH0-075%8.1
2-28Miami FL (18.8)ACCA0-037%-3.9
3-3Georgia Tech (88.1)ACCA0-062%3.7
3-7Duke (2.7)ACCH0-033%-5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC41.6726.08100.0064.7241.677.68
LouisvilleACC0.004.06100.0080.460.002.47
North Carolina St.ACC0.004.00100.0060.730.000.86
DukeACC0.003.99100.0087.110.002.96
Georgia TechACC0.003.99100.0054.580.000.37
Wake ForestACC0.002.4250.0041.950.00-0.39
ClemsonACC0.002.4133.3345.27-0.00-0.23
VirginiaACC0.002.41100.0077.300.001.32
Notre DameACC0.002.39100.0070.620.000.99
SyracuseACC0.002.3975.0071.210.001.01
Miami FLACC0.002.36100.0073.560.001.11
PittsburghACC0.002.3566.6751.690.000.08
Florida St.ACC0.002.3350.0057.420.000.35
Virginia TechACC0.002.33100.0042.530.00-0.35
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3350.0042.220.00-0.36
Ohio St.B100.001.84100.0074.340.000.89
IowaB100.001.8150.0068.760.000.68
KentuckySEC0.001.78100.0086.270.001.29
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.760.0029.89-0.00-0.71
East CarolinaAmer0.001.750.0035.85-0.00-0.50
Robert MorrisNEC25.001.7550.0039.810.00-0.36
DavidsonA100.001.75100.0049.550.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.001.72100.0055.230.000.18
North Carolina CentralMEAC25.001.720.0072.18-25.000.76
UABCUSA0.001.720.0044.78-0.00-0.18
William & MaryCAA0.001.7250.0047.170.00-0.10
IndianaB100.000.23100.0063.850.000.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2150.0040.180.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.2166.6774.980.000.10
ProvidenceBE0.000.20100.0062.680.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.18100.0044.620.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.1850.0062.660.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.17100.0043.710.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1766.6766.600.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.17100.0081.110.000.11
MinnesotaB100.000.1750.0063.730.000.05
PurdueB100.000.17100.0060.570.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0064.850.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1566.6747.240.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1533.3336.04-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1550.0040.300.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.15100.0070.040.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.150.0054.47-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1550.0054.250.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1566.6768.330.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.14100.0052.280.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6771.300.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0016.72-0.00-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1225.0057.21-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.12100.0045.610.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0075.400.000.06
TempleAmer0.000.1266.6760.730.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.12100.0058.330.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.120.0051.78-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1233.3335.37-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.12100.0063.680.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1266.6763.800.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1233.3332.57-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.1250.0025.820.00-0.06
The CitadelSC0.000.120.0027.74-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.12100.0043.610.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6757.590.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.0033.43-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.12100.0063.880.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.86-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0068.580.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1150.0044.000.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1175.0045.210.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.11100.0066.870.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.11100.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0023.20-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.100.0048.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0034.15-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0055.810.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0033.61-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0034.26-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0034.27-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.310.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0069.720.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0035.33-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
VCUA100.000.09100.0074.770.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0950.0049.490.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.090.0015.68-0.00-0.06
VMISC0.000.0950.0043.730.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0933.3359.35-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.390.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0950.0054.540.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0036.810.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0950.0036.850.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0067.360.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3363.82-0.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0074.210.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0950.0036.270.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0055.220.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0950.0043.330.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0950.0054.170.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0065.630.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.08100.0058.280.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0833.3352.91-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.070.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.91-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.68-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0065.390.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0050.220.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.03-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0055.910.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0028.860.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.390.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.82-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0016.80-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.90-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.14-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.16-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0060.630.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6738.520.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3331.34-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0068.990.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.850.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.43-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3330.78-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0034.57-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
BradleyMVC4.170.030.0025.34-4.17-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.730.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.690.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00
LafayettePat4.170.0366.6762.891.390.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0043.44-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.70-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.880.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0041.040.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3344.86-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3357.87-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3346.82-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.630.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.640.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.22-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0051.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.60-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00