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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.3
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:92
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.39%
29-21.12.81%
28-31.38.14%
27-41.816.85%
26-53.022.17%
25-65.020.59%
24-77.915.02%
23-811.48.55%
22-915.13.71%
21-1019.71.27%
20-1126.50.41%
19-1232.00.07%
18-1341.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tulane (283.2)AmerA75-95W100%0.0
11-13Chattanooga (86.7)SCH97-57W100%0.0
11-15Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH93-67W100%0.0
11-18Hawaii (273.6)BWA68-83W100%0.0
11-22Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12N107-75W100%0.0
11-23Wisconsin (22.2)B10N71-56W100%0.0
11-30Indiana (20.4)B10A76-67L0%0.0
12-4Radford (263.5)BSthH95-50W100%0.0
12-7Davidson (68.7)A10H0-094%18.8
12-11Tennessee (130.0)SECH0-096%21.4
12-17Kentucky (9.3)SECN0-054%1.2
12-21Northern Iowa (117.4)MVCH0-096%20.6
12-28Monmouth (68.0)MAACH0-096%21.2
12-31Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-094%18.7
1-3Clemson (70.5)ACCA0-079%9.7
1-7North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCH0-096%20.5
1-11Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA0-081%10.4
1-14Florida St. (40.7)ACCH0-086%12.9
1-16Syracuse (52.7)ACCH0-084%12.0
1-21Boston College (233.9)ACCA0-097%22.6
1-26Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCH0-090%15.3
1-28Miami FL (46.9)ACCA0-067%5.2
1-31Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH0-094%18.8
2-4Notre Dame (23.3)ACCH0-075%8.1
2-9Duke (9.9)ACCA0-046%-1.3
2-15North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCA0-088%14.2
2-18Virginia (8.6)ACCH0-064%4.2
2-22Louisville (7.2)ACCH0-070%6.4
2-25Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCA0-085%12.5
2-27Virginia (8.6)ACCA0-043%-2.0
3-4Duke (9.9)ACCH0-066%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC28.3426.0491.6782.0923.6116.71
PittsburghACC0.003.7575.0051.850.000.14
VirginiaACC0.003.7587.5080.800.002.31
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.7375.0054.000.000.30
DukeACC0.003.7388.8980.760.002.29
LouisvilleACC0.352.3087.5077.130.261.25
Wake ForestACC0.452.2575.0055.710.220.26
Georgia TechACC0.392.2557.1437.040.06-0.58
SyracuseACC0.352.2471.4368.390.150.83
Miami FLACC0.002.2275.0067.240.000.76
ClemsonACC0.002.1971.4356.020.000.26
Virginia TechACC0.002.1985.7164.810.000.65
Florida St.ACC0.002.1987.5066.950.000.74
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1757.1430.680.00-0.84
Notre DameACC0.002.17100.0079.120.001.26
TennesseeSEC0.791.7540.0042.41-0.16-0.27
WisconsinB106.251.7287.5078.574.690.98
Long Beach St.BW6.251.700.0039.59-6.25-0.35
KentuckySEC0.001.6987.5084.030.001.15
IndianaB106.251.6985.7173.644.460.80
HawaiiBW6.251.6760.0052.471.250.08
ChattanoogaSC6.251.6483.3375.744.170.84
DavidsonA100.001.6471.4365.210.000.50
RadfordBSth6.251.6433.3335.55-2.08-0.47
TulaneAmer6.251.6414.2924.76-4.46-0.83
MonmouthMAAC0.001.6475.0072.850.000.75
Northern IowaMVC0.001.6133.3354.64-0.000.15
Oklahoma St.B126.251.6183.3356.194.170.20
KansasB120.740.2187.5075.860.550.11
Penn St.B100.000.2166.6746.420.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1887.5075.240.000.09
OklahomaB120.740.1671.4348.350.32-0.01
IowaB100.000.1637.5037.74-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1616.6729.80-0.00-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.16100.0078.850.000.09
MercerSC0.450.1442.8647.76-0.06-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1471.4356.260.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.350.1475.0086.710.170.10
West VirginiaB120.000.1485.7183.660.000.09
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1350.0046.240.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1357.1452.030.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.1387.5068.610.000.05
MarylandB100.450.1387.5059.330.330.02
MichiganB100.000.1375.0066.460.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1375.0066.170.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1371.4359.880.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.1362.5050.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1355.5658.610.000.02
PurdueB100.000.1375.0075.340.000.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1242.8641.51-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1228.5733.77-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1228.5742.90-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1250.0045.970.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0054.070.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0032.52-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0033.85-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.450.110.0016.78-0.45-0.08
High PointBSth0.000.1142.8646.48-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.110.0034.81-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1120.0037.65-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1133.3352.11-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1171.4358.920.000.02
Arizona St.P120.390.1162.5040.460.10-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.1150.0048.210.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1162.5069.130.000.04
MissouriSEC0.390.1157.1442.530.06-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1177.7849.900.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1187.5059.310.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0084.840.000.07
DuquesneA100.000.1144.4442.03-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.890.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6766.860.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.12-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1114.2926.74-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.180.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1142.8663.41-0.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1050.0056.740.000.01
RutgersB100.000.1085.7145.370.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1044.4434.65-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1087.5068.020.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1050.0048.810.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1085.7170.060.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0067.760.000.03
CampbellBSth0.450.0842.8639.20-0.06-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0883.3379.850.000.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0833.3327.06-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0850.0030.350.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.12-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.390.0833.3348.07-0.13-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0862.5056.520.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.130.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0071.070.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0842.8644.71-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0875.0073.060.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd1.240.0812.5030.39-0.93-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0871.4359.470.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.450.0842.8643.60-0.06-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.070.000.03
TexasB120.000.0857.1438.680.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0850.0038.050.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.30-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0885.7166.190.000.03
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0833.3339.61-0.15-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.170.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0875.0055.500.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0875.0048.030.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0875.0056.590.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0875.0064.920.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.450.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.790.0855.5647.890.09-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0814.2924.15-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0017.61-0.00-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0842.8654.90-0.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0837.5044.39-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.350.08100.0076.630.350.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.58-0.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0857.1464.030.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0825.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.420.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0833.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.520.060.0023.69-0.52-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.520.0616.6730.34-0.35-0.02
Texas St.SB0.520.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0019.67-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.27-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.910.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.450.0625.0038.83-0.22-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.550.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.33-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.220.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.360.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7178.280.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.840.0540.0041.93-0.17-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0522.2241.71-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.230.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0540.0058.82-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0525.0027.53-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5062.040.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.47-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0020.75-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0512.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0525.0020.78-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.390.0537.5037.03-0.10-0.01
UCLAP120.350.05100.0086.690.350.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.21-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.350.0520.0022.75-0.21-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5029.71-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5729.95-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.390.0571.4370.210.170.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0537.5047.37-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0542.8655.09-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.34-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5736.95-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0575.0071.470.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0562.5043.800.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
TroySB0.520.0342.8636.19-0.07-0.01
AkronMAC0.450.0371.4368.980.190.01
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0375.0066.370.220.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.0325.0030.23-0.22-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.450.0316.6729.81-0.30-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.450.0328.5728.24-0.19-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.350.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.350.0357.1471.940.050.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.0375.0070.180.170.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.390.0342.8650.12-0.060.00
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.350.0357.1452.370.050.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.94-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.390.030.0025.23-0.39-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.350.0314.2931.28-0.25-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.390.0342.8638.63-0.06-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.390.0322.2238.49-0.22-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00