live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:25.0
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:21
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-925.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Oakland (181.0)HorzH84-61W100%0.0
11-15Holy Cross (127.0)PatH62-54W100%0.0
11-17Belmont (57.0)OVCH80-83L0%0.0
11-23Richmond (75.0)A10N72-82W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (19.0)AmerN84-93W100%0.0
12-1UAB (152.0)CUSAA63-59L0%0.0
12-4Michigan St. (18.0)B10A65-79W100%0.0
12-7UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH81-50W100%0.0
12-14Kentucky (17.0)SECH82-77W100%0.0
12-18Texas (36.0)B12H83-86L0%0.0
12-21Davidson (126.0)SCH97-85W100%0.0
12-27Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH75-60W100%0.0
12-31UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH84-51W100%0.0
1-5Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
1-8Miami FL (110.0)ACCH57-63L0%0.0
1-11Syracuse (16.0)ACCA57-45L0%0.0
1-18Boston College (207.0)ACCH82-71W100%0.0
1-20Virginia (8.0)ACCA76-61L0%0.0
1-26Clemson (79.0)ACCH80-61W100%0.0
1-29Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA65-78W100%0.0
2-1North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH84-70W100%0.0
2-4Maryland (78.0)ACCH75-63W100%0.0
2-8Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA62-73W100%0.0
2-15Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH75-71W100%0.0
2-17Florida St. (54.0)ACCA75-81W100%0.0
2-20Duke (9.0)ACCH74-66W100%0.0
2-22Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH105-72W100%0.0
2-26North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA84-85W100%0.0
3-1Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA56-60W100%0.0
3-3Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH63-61W100%0.0
3-8Duke (9.0)ACCA93-81L0%0.0
3-14Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN75-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.0126.0170.2970.2910.5510.55
Wake ForestACC3.793.7951.6151.610.120.12
North Carolina St.ACC3.773.7765.6265.621.181.18
DukeACC3.753.7578.1278.122.112.11
PittsburghACC3.723.7275.0075.001.861.86
Notre DameACC3.653.6550.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC2.262.2681.8281.821.441.44
ClemsonACC2.232.2364.5264.520.650.65
Georgia TechACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC2.182.1850.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC2.182.1883.8783.871.481.48
Virginia TechACC2.162.1630.0030.00-0.86-0.86
Boston CollegeACC2.142.1423.3323.33-1.14-1.14
Florida St.ACC2.142.1461.2961.290.480.48
MarylandACC2.132.1353.3353.330.140.14
UNC GreensboroSC1.731.7339.2939.29-0.37-0.37
DavidsonSC1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
Michigan St.B101.661.6678.7978.790.960.96
KentuckySEC1.661.6672.7372.730.750.75
RichmondA101.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
BelmontOVC1.631.6370.9770.970.690.69
Holy CrossPat1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
LouisvilleAmer1.591.5987.8887.881.201.20
Northern KentuckyASun1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
OaklandHorz1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
TexasB121.591.5968.7568.750.590.59
UABCUSA1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.561.5624.1424.14-0.81-0.81
VCUA100.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
StetsonASun0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
East CarolinaCUSA0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
ElonSC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
HofstraCAA0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1319.2319.23-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ColgatePat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
VMIBSth0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CornellIvy0.100.103.703.70-0.09-0.09
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.05-0.05
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01