The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated North Carolina page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 13, 2010.

North Carolina

Conference:		ACC
Expected RPI:		91.9
Current RPI:		91
Expected SOS:		18
Current SOS:		16
Current Record:		16-16
Expected Record:		16-16
Current Conf Record:		5-12
Expected Conf Record:		5-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		5-0
Current OOC Record:		11-4
Expected OOC Record:		11-4
Expected OOC RPI:		61
Expected OOC SOS:		99

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record		Expected RPI		Probability
16-16		91.9		100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-9	Florida International (296.0)	SB	H	88-72	W	100%	0.0
11-11	North Carolina Central (347.0)	ind	H	89-42	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Valparaiso (186.0)	Horz	H	88-77	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Ohio St. (24.4)	B10	N	77-73	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Syracuse (5.0)	BE	N	71-87	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Gardner Webb (318.0)	BSth	H	93-72	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Nevada (73.0)	WAC	H	80-73	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Michigan St. (28.1)	B10	H	89-82	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Kentucky (2.4)	SEC	A	66-68	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Presbyterian (329.0)	BSth	H	103-64	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Texas (29.2)	B12	N	90-103	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Marshall (67.0)	CUSA	H	98-61	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Rutgers (161.0)	BE	H	81-67	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Albany (301.5)	AE	H	87-70	W	100%	0.0
1-4	College of Charleston (91.1)	SC	A	79-82	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Virginia Tech (54.9)	ACC	H	78-64	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Clemson (34.0)	ACC	A	64-83	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Georgia Tech (32.1)	ACC	H	71-73	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Wake Forest (39.5)	ACC	H	69-82	L	0%	0.0
1-26	North Carolina St. (97.7)	ACC	A	77-63	W	100%	0.0
1-31	Virginia (127.3)	ACC	H	60-75	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Virginia Tech (54.9)	ACC	A	70-74	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Maryland (24.0)	ACC	A	71-92	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Duke (2.9)	ACC	H	54-64	L	0%	0.0
2-13	North Carolina St. (97.7)	ACC	H	74-61	W	100%	0.0
2-16	Georgia Tech (32.1)	ACC	A	51-68	L	0%	0.0
2-20	Boston College (125.0)	ACC	A	67-71	L	0%	0.0
2-24	Florida St. (42.0)	ACC	H	67-77	L	0%	0.0
2-27	Wake Forest (39.5)	ACC	A	77-68	W	100%	0.0
3-2	Miami FL (99.0)	ACC	H	69-62	W	100%	0.0
3-6	Duke (2.9)	ACC	A	50-82	L	0%	0.0
3-11	Georgia Tech (32.1)	ACC	N	58-62	L	0%	0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina	ACC	26.15	26.14	43.94	43.94	-3.17	-3.17
Georgia Tech	ACC	5.26	5.30	62.07	60.44	1.27	1.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.81	3.81	59.38	59.38	0.71	0.71
Duke	ACC	3.73	3.80	83.87	83.97	2.53	2.58
Wake Forest	ACC	3.69	3.68	66.67	66.67	1.23	1.23
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.67	3.67	75.86	75.86	1.90	1.90
Miami FL	ACC	2.32	2.32	61.29	61.29	0.52	0.52
Clemson	ACC	2.25	2.25	66.67	66.67	0.75	0.75
Virginia	ACC	2.23	2.23	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Florida St.	ACC	2.23	2.22	70.00	70.00	0.89	0.89
Maryland	ACC	2.20	2.19	72.41	72.41	0.99	0.98
Boston College	ACC	2.16	2.15	46.67	46.67	-0.14	-0.14
North Carolina Central	ind	1.71	1.71	12.50	12.50	-1.28	-1.28
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.69	1.68	20.00	20.00	-1.01	-1.01
Presbyterian	BSth	1.67	1.67	13.79	13.79	-1.21	-1.21
Ohio St.	B10	1.64	1.64	81.25	80.55	1.02	1.00
Michigan St.	B10	1.64	1.64	77.42	77.42	0.90	0.90
Florida International	SB	1.62	1.62	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
Texas	B12	1.62	1.62	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Syracuse	BE	1.61	1.61	87.10	87.10	1.20	1.20
College of Charleston	SC	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Albany	AE	1.59	1.59	22.58	22.58	-0.87	-0.87
Rutgers	BE	1.59	1.59	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Valparaiso	Horz	1.59	1.59	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Kentucky	SEC	1.56	1.56	93.75	93.22	1.37	1.35
Marshall	CUSA	1.56	1.56	71.43	71.43	0.67	0.67
Nevada	WAC	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
NC Greensboro	SC	0.27	0.27	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
High Point	BSth	0.26	0.26	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.22	0.22	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.22	0.21	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.21	34.62	34.62	-0.07	-0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.21	0.21	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.20	0.20	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	84.38	84.38	0.12	0.12
Illinois	B10	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.16	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.16	24.00	24.00	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.17	63.64	63.00	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.10	87.50	87.50	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P10	0.10	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	SB	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	ind	0.06	0.06	31.82	31.82	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	87.50	87.50	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	78.79	77.55	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.22	0.04	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	18.52	18.52	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	6.45	6.45	-0.04	-0.04
California	P10	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.78	34.78	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Bryant	ind	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.07	74.07	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	87.50	87.50	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	7.41	7.41	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.02	0.02	46.15	46.15	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	B12	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.05	69.70	68.35	0.01	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina	ACC	26.15	26.14	43.94	43.94	-3.17	-3.17
Georgia Tech	ACC	5.26	5.30	62.07	60.44	1.27	1.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.81	3.81	59.38	59.38	0.71	0.71
Duke	ACC	3.73	3.80	83.87	83.97	2.53	2.58
Wake Forest	ACC	3.69	3.68	66.67	66.67	1.23	1.23
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.67	3.67	75.86	75.86	1.90	1.90
Miami FL	ACC	2.32	2.32	61.29	61.29	0.52	0.52
Clemson	ACC	2.25	2.25	66.67	66.67	0.75	0.75
Virginia	ACC	2.23	2.23	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Florida St.	ACC	2.23	2.22	70.00	70.00	0.89	0.89
Maryland	ACC	2.20	2.19	72.41	72.41	0.99	0.98
Boston College	ACC	2.16	2.15	46.67	46.67	-0.14	-0.14
North Carolina Central	ind	1.71	1.71	12.50	12.50	-1.28	-1.28
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.69	1.68	20.00	20.00	-1.01	-1.01
Presbyterian	BSth	1.67	1.67	13.79	13.79	-1.21	-1.21
Ohio St.	B10	1.64	1.64	81.25	80.55	1.02	1.00
Michigan St.	B10	1.64	1.64	77.42	77.42	0.90	0.90
Florida International	SB	1.62	1.62	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
Texas	B12	1.62	1.62	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Syracuse	BE	1.61	1.61	87.10	87.10	1.20	1.20
College of Charleston	SC	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Albany	AE	1.59	1.59	22.58	22.58	-0.87	-0.87
Rutgers	BE	1.59	1.59	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Valparaiso	Horz	1.59	1.59	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Kentucky	SEC	1.56	1.56	93.75	93.22	1.37	1.35
Marshall	CUSA	1.56	1.56	71.43	71.43	0.67	0.67
Nevada	WAC	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
NC Greensboro	SC	0.27	0.27	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
High Point	BSth	0.26	0.26	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.22	0.22	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.22	0.21	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.21	34.62	34.62	-0.07	-0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.21	0.21	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.20	0.20	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	84.38	84.38	0.12	0.12
Georgetown	BE	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.17	63.64	63.00	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.16	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.16	24.00	24.00	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.10	87.50	87.50	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Southern California	P10	0.10	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	SB	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	ind	0.06	0.06	31.82	31.82	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	87.50	87.50	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	78.79	77.55	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.22	0.04	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	18.52	18.52	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01