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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:62.9
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:50
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:2.41%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-726.90.07%
23-833.21.94%
22-941.69.06%
21-1051.222.73%
20-1161.831.27%
19-1273.823.24%
18-1387.010.16%
17-1498.81.52%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11NC Asheville (115.4)BSthH84-75W100%0.0
11-13Morehead St. (187.8)OVCH91-61W100%0.0
11-16Princeton (117.6)IvyH60-58W100%0.0
11-19Vanderbilt (31.5)SECN79-86L0%0.0
11-21Texas (58.4)B12N74-77W100%0.0
11-25Elon (223.5)SCH82-67W100%0.0
11-30Indiana (20.6)B10H75-86L0%0.0
12-4Stanford (89.9)P12A76-72L0%0.0
12-11North Carolina Central (240.5)MEACH65-60W100%0.0
12-17Syracuse (2.1)BEH72-88L0%0.0
12-20St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10N65-67W100%0.0
12-22Northeastern (164.6)CAAH88-59W100%0.0
12-29Campbell (174.5)BSthH87-81W100%0.0
12-31Western Carolina (259.9)SCH82-55W100%0.0
1-4Delaware St. (279.9)MEACH78-44W100%0.0
1-8Maryland (112.8)ACCH79-74W100%0.0
1-11Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH71-82L0%0.0
1-14Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA40-76W100%0.0
1-19Boston College (248.2)ACCH76-62W100%0.0
1-22Miami FL (64.4)ACCA73-78W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina (4.6)ACCA74-55L0%0.0
1-28Virginia (39.5)ACCH60-61L0%0.0
2-1Boston College (248.2)ACCA51-56W100%0.0
2-4Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH87-76W100%0.0
2-9Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA0-061%3.1
2-16Duke (4.2)ACCA0-015%-11.4
2-18Florida St. (21.9)ACCH0-042%-2.1
2-21North Carolina (4.6)ACCH0-029%-6.1
2-25Clemson (148.3)ACCA0-048%-0.5
2-29Miami FL (64.4)ACCH0-064%3.9
3-4Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA0-038%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.3326.1263.2158.826.954.61
North CarolinaACC2.553.8286.3682.991.862.52
Georgia TechACC2.433.7936.3640.17-0.66-0.75
Wake ForestACC4.413.7952.3846.780.21-0.24
Boston CollegeACC4.453.7933.3328.33-1.48-1.64
Miami FLACC2.363.7668.4263.140.870.99
Virginia TechACC0.462.2656.5254.960.060.22
MarylandACC2.322.2361.9052.570.550.11
Florida St.ACC0.332.2072.7372.190.150.98
ClemsonACC0.332.2050.0048.250.00-0.08
DukeACC0.232.2086.3683.020.171.45
VirginiaACC2.272.1780.9576.001.411.13
ElonSC2.231.7552.6349.420.12-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth2.261.7571.4370.240.970.71
PrincetonIvy2.231.7350.0054.820.000.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.241.7241.1845.68-0.39-0.15
Western CarolinaSC2.181.7036.3638.57-0.60-0.39
CampbellBSth2.181.7058.3357.570.360.26
Delaware St.MEAC2.191.7037.5041.44-0.55-0.29
SyracuseBE2.131.6795.6591.741.941.39
TexasB122.131.6663.6463.420.580.45
IndianaB102.081.6473.9174.971.000.82
Morehead St.OVC2.141.6447.6248.73-0.10-0.04
NortheasternCAA2.141.6450.0050.290.000.01
St. BonaventureA102.081.6463.1661.250.550.37
StanfordP122.131.6468.1867.200.770.56
VanderbiltSEC2.081.6168.1864.730.760.48
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.2534.7838.77-0.08-0.06
Appalachian St.SC0.240.2535.0039.29-0.07-0.05
NC GreensboroSC0.190.2234.7833.46-0.06-0.07
MassachusettsA100.240.2273.9168.580.110.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.320.2019.0522.37-0.20-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1940.9139.56-0.03-0.04
College of CharlestonSC0.200.1758.3359.980.030.03
High PointBSth0.230.1731.8232.75-0.08-0.06
WinthropBSth0.140.1734.7834.61-0.04-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.190.1620.8320.60-0.11-0.10
Michigan St.B100.090.1676.1972.910.050.07
SamfordSC0.140.1433.3335.26-0.05-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.1452.3857.860.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1427.2735.02-0.08-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.1472.2271.970.040.06
WoffordSC0.180.1459.0957.930.030.02
HarvardIvy0.090.1490.4887.910.070.10
OregonP120.200.1469.5764.530.080.04
PresbyterianBSth0.180.1440.9143.66-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.140.1440.9134.50-0.03-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1445.4541.20-0.01-0.02
PurdueB100.140.1465.2260.580.040.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1439.1336.10-0.05-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1345.4540.70-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.1395.8392.570.080.11
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1238.1042.78-0.04-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.1220.0019.96-0.14-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1233.3337.25-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1210.0014.93-0.04-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1250.0051.730.000.00
HowardMEAC0.160.1218.1822.22-0.10-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1268.1869.680.040.05
CharlotteA100.110.1250.0049.450.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.119.5211.44-0.08-0.09
LibertyBSth0.140.1127.2727.21-0.06-0.05
RadfordBSth0.140.118.7013.10-0.11-0.08
CornellIvy0.150.1136.8441.45-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1160.8759.760.030.02
FurmanSC0.100.1147.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1156.5253.100.020.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.190.1140.0041.30-0.04-0.02
SienaMAAC0.150.1145.4545.55-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.150.1172.2263.190.060.03
DrexelCAA0.190.1179.1778.100.110.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1155.0060.330.010.02
RutgersBE0.110.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.140.1165.2265.170.040.03
Notre DameBE0.200.1165.2262.650.060.03
DavidsonSC0.090.1176.1976.760.050.06
BucknellPat0.190.1173.9175.000.090.05
ConnecticutBE0.050.1168.1863.990.020.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.1145.4544.66-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.090.1177.2775.060.050.05
Boston UniversityAE0.180.1148.0051.88-0.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.130.1166.6768.050.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.1159.0957.280.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1168.1869.100.050.04
IowaB100.090.1154.1749.440.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.180.1141.6738.67-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1156.5250.270.020.00
Texas TechB120.140.1131.8225.98-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.140.1163.6463.160.040.03
FloridaSEC0.090.1082.6177.630.060.06
MichiganB100.130.1072.7366.810.060.04
MonmouthNEC0.090.1028.0028.91-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0936.3638.48-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0925.0037.58-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.170.0982.6184.570.110.06
ColumbiaIvy0.110.0955.0054.800.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0914.2917.17-0.04-0.06
DelawareCAA0.110.0947.8350.65-0.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.140.0945.0044.15-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.160.0934.7832.08-0.05-0.03
UtahP120.090.0818.1815.01-0.06-0.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0854.5556.840.000.01
DaytonA100.140.0860.8760.960.030.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.140.0877.2773.450.080.04
RichmondA100.140.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.140.0877.2777.670.080.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0862.5062.490.010.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0850.0048.900.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.090.084.005.26-0.09-0.07
IllinoisB100.100.0872.7364.430.050.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0863.6456.710.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0845.8346.68-0.00-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0880.0078.060.050.05
Arizona St.P120.140.0830.4331.43-0.05-0.03
ColoradoP120.090.0866.6762.650.030.02
Iowa St.B120.140.0873.9168.430.060.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.130.0852.3846.680.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0861.9055.140.010.01
Seton HallBE0.130.0865.2263.740.040.02
TulaneCUSA0.090.0861.9058.590.020.01
UCLAP120.090.0854.5556.790.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0845.4544.02-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0878.2678.390.030.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0872.7368.280.020.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0878.2672.660.030.04
MinnesotaB100.040.0869.5761.310.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0825.0023.75-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0886.9685.460.060.06
WisconsinB100.090.0875.0073.970.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0642.1149.81-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0633.3335.97-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0627.2723.80-0.02-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.450.040.02
DuquesneA100.050.0659.0956.350.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0633.3334.47-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0634.7838.42-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0626.3229.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0671.4369.050.040.02
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0624.0024.86-0.05-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0636.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0666.6769.690.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0632.0035.39-0.03-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.090.0660.0058.290.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0612.5013.44-0.03-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0581.8280.430.060.03
LafayettePat0.100.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.100.0565.2263.740.030.02
George MasonCAA0.050.0576.0072.500.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.7832.06-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0566.6768.550.020.02
BryantNEC0.090.058.3310.86-0.08-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0575.0074.610.020.03
Holy CrossPat0.090.0540.9142.05-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0525.0028.52-0.04-0.02
New HampshireAE0.090.0535.0038.58-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0581.8281.030.060.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Seattleind0.090.0523.5333.28-0.05-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0542.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0517.6527.10-0.03-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
AlbanyAE0.090.0560.0060.420.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.5248.810.01-0.00
ButlerHorz0.090.0550.0050.800.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0566.6760.800.020.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.000.0552.3852.860.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0533.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.090.0530.0027.84-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.040.0531.8231.31-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0569.5766.540.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0590.9183.850.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0540.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0571.4373.350.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0579.1775.980.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0550.0058.160.000.01
MissouriB120.090.0591.3087.180.070.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0582.6181.440.030.03
OklahomaB120.000.0559.0954.700.000.00
Texas A&MB120.050.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
NavyPat0.050.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0381.8277.200.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.040.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0326.3228.83-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0362.5061.500.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0037.30-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
Chicago St.GWC0.040.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
CreightonMVC0.040.0387.5085.410.030.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.000.0357.1453.120.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0317.3922.00-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0359.0957.760.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
PacificBW0.050.0335.0037.47-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0352.3852.870.000.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.540.01-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.000.0343.4843.31-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
BelmontASun0.000.0369.5773.280.000.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.000.0375.0076.000.000.01
CincinnatiBE0.040.0369.5765.470.020.01
ColgatePat0.040.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.040.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.380.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0356.5254.220.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0368.0069.070.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0359.0959.720.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0313.6416.35-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.340.030.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
PittsburghBE0.040.0360.8758.160.010.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.940.020.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.96-0.00-0.00