live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:96.3
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:80
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-724.40.05%
23-832.50.21%
22-942.01.00%
21-1052.24.38%
20-1163.510.88%
19-1276.718.84%
18-1392.323.75%
17-14110.021.66%
16-15129.612.78%
15-16149.25.24%
14-17167.51.09%
13-18184.20.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10VMI (313.6)SCH102-67W100%0.0
11-12Charleston Southern (313.1)BSthH78-56W100%0.0
11-14Bryant (330.8)NECH95-72W100%0.0
11-16Presbyterian (324.6)BSthH86-68W100%0.0
11-22Arizona (15.5)P12N90-84W100%0.0
11-23Northern Iowa (107.2)MVCN64-60L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee (23.9)SECN58-67L0%0.0
11-29Penn St. (113.7)B10H85-78W100%0.0
12-2South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACH103-71W100%0.0
12-9UMKC (264.1)WACH88-69W100%0.0
12-16UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCH76-81L0%0.0
12-19Robert Morris (151.7)NECH81-69W100%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (300.2)ASunH116-64W100%0.0
12-30Clemson (14.2)ACCA78-62L0%0.0
1-3Notre Dame (57.5)ACCA88-58L0%0.0
1-6Duke (3.1)ACCH96-85W100%0.0
1-11Clemson (14.2)ACCH78-77W100%0.0
1-14Virginia (4.4)ACCA68-51L0%0.0
1-18Wake Forest (129.1)ACCH72-63W100%0.0
1-21Miami FL (28.3)ACCH0-042%-2.4
1-24Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCA0-072%6.4
1-27North Carolina (5.3)ACCA0-011%-13.4
2-3Notre Dame (57.5)ACCH0-040%-2.9
2-7Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA0-029%-6.2
2-10North Carolina (5.3)ACCH0-026%-7.0
2-14Syracuse (43.7)ACCA0-030%-5.8
2-17Wake Forest (129.1)ACCA0-044%-1.7
2-20Boston College (97.8)ACCH0-068%5.2
2-25Florida St. (40.6)ACCH0-039%-3.1
3-1Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA0-051%0.1
3-3Louisville (24.8)ACCH0-040%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.5126.0561.1951.625.940.84
North CarolinaACC0.503.8480.0074.630.301.89
Wake ForestACC2.863.7847.0642.09-0.17-0.60
ClemsonACC5.333.7588.2474.874.081.87
Notre DameACC2.773.7561.1159.690.620.73
Georgia TechACC0.282.2852.6342.910.01-0.32
Florida St.ACC0.162.2373.6869.910.070.89
Boston CollegeACC0.432.2268.4255.830.160.26
DukeACC2.702.2294.4488.032.401.69
Virginia TechACC0.222.2068.4257.330.080.32
SyracuseACC0.222.2068.4260.970.080.48
VirginiaACC2.712.1994.1284.942.391.53
LouisvilleACC0.272.1977.7869.670.150.86
PittsburghACC0.202.1940.0030.96-0.04-0.84
Miami FLACC0.212.1776.4769.380.110.84
PresbyterianBSth2.941.8131.2528.77-1.10-0.77
UNC GreensboroSC2.941.7866.6766.440.980.59
TennesseeSEC2.781.7770.5967.851.150.63
Charleston SouthernBSth2.791.7621.4329.87-1.59-0.71
VMISC2.881.7326.6725.10-1.34-0.86
South Carolina St.MEAC2.871.7329.4132.80-1.18-0.59
BryantNEC2.691.6910.0017.65-2.16-1.09
Northern IowaMVC2.631.6643.7550.75-0.330.02
Robert MorrisNEC2.691.6660.0062.410.540.41
JacksonvilleASun2.701.6435.2935.10-0.80-0.49
Penn St.B102.631.6465.0057.630.790.25
ArizonaP122.631.6184.2181.611.801.02
UMKCWAC2.631.6122.2225.62-1.46-0.79
Western CarolinaSC0.300.2238.8935.35-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.320.2052.9457.320.020.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.390.2050.0055.650.000.02
FurmanSC0.300.2066.6768.500.100.07
WoffordSC0.160.2068.7563.620.060.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1842.1144.97-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.200.1880.9576.520.120.10
LongwoodBSth0.330.1817.6517.23-0.21-0.12
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1841.1843.41-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.250.1861.1160.790.050.04
High PointBSth0.240.1740.0047.86-0.05-0.01
SamfordSC0.140.1727.7832.66-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.160.1718.7518.40-0.10-0.11
Chicago St.WAC0.220.170.003.12-0.22-0.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.290.1755.5656.710.030.02
Michigan St.B100.140.1685.0083.180.100.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1633.3335.19-0.06-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1652.9459.250.010.03
WinthropBSth0.160.1546.6758.78-0.010.03
CampbellBSth0.230.1543.7545.34-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.240.1444.4454.89-0.030.01
DavidsonA100.240.1458.8261.440.040.03
FloridaSEC0.210.1373.6871.550.100.06
IndianaB100.200.1357.8950.680.030.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1352.3848.520.01-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1323.5332.62-0.07-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1330.0033.49-0.05-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.230.1211.1117.96-0.18-0.08
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1222.2228.590.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1277.7879.160.090.07
DrakeMVC0.150.1155.0049.070.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1170.0071.230.050.05
MichiganB100.070.1175.0070.270.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.119.5217.94-0.05-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.210.1161.1151.900.050.00
DartmouthIvy0.130.1121.4326.21-0.08-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.060.1166.6755.930.020.01
KentuckySEC0.070.1173.6867.950.030.04
PurdueB100.140.1090.4888.380.110.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1040.0042.57-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.070.1055.0050.370.010.00
WagnerNEC0.130.1064.7164.540.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0947.3745.87-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0916.6724.91-0.05-0.04
LipscombASun0.150.0952.9459.360.010.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0931.5835.15-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0977.7871.650.080.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0883.3384.230.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.0850.0052.440.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0829.4133.22-0.06-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0852.6347.360.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0852.6350.250.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0845.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.0866.6766.010.050.03
CharlotteCUSA0.150.0823.5325.63-0.08-0.04
DelawareCAA0.150.0847.3743.04-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0866.6765.360.050.03
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0878.9577.360.080.05
HamptonMEAC0.070.0820.0041.76-0.04-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0827.7834.50-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.140.0870.0058.100.060.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0818.7536.76-0.08-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0810.0019.620.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.210.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.160.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.150.0836.8435.55-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0865.0062.040.020.02
YaleIvy0.140.0841.1847.51-0.02-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0847.3744.27-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0831.5834.35-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0821.0544.26-0.08-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0868.4264.200.030.02
NavyPat0.060.0860.0055.160.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0857.8947.140.01-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.200.0868.4263.980.070.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0863.1657.900.000.01
IowaB100.060.0847.6244.03-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.320.030.02
NebraskaB100.060.0866.6759.780.020.02
NorthwesternB100.130.0855.0050.370.010.00
SienaMAAC0.130.0830.0031.69-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.0631.5832.72-0.06-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.250.000.02
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.60-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.920.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.870.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0670.0068.420.030.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0650.0051.360.000.00
VCUA100.160.0660.0059.690.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0611.1115.30-0.11-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.240.030.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
VillanovaBE0.150.0694.7490.310.130.04
ElonCAA0.150.0552.6351.090.010.00
SMUAmer0.140.0570.0070.630.060.02
South DakotaSum0.140.0573.6872.360.070.02
UNLVMWC0.140.0573.6865.280.070.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.15-0.07-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.92-0.05-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0561.1160.530.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0561.1158.750.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0527.7838.13-0.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1134.32-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.140.0557.8959.470.020.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0583.3381.350.090.03
OhioMAC0.140.0547.0648.44-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0531.5830.00-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0552.9455.040.000.01
TempleAmer0.140.0552.6351.730.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0568.4258.990.020.01
La SalleA100.000.0540.0042.720.00-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0538.8944.75-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0563.6457.640.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0568.4254.090.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0584.2178.170.050.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0570.0068.050.030.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0578.9576.130.040.03
BucknellPat0.000.0561.9068.010.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0572.2274.900.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0550.0051.040.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0560.0053.730.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0520.0032.26-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
George MasonA100.060.0545.0041.35-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0552.6346.880.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0565.0058.490.020.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0570.5973.140.030.02
OregonP120.070.0565.0063.830.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0557.8950.810.010.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0527.7827.300.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.130.0565.0065.370.040.02
UtahP120.070.0561.1158.950.010.01
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0061.440.000.01
AmericanPat0.080.0326.3228.14-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.14-0.02-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0312.5025.47-0.06-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.700.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.480.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.780.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.060.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.160.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.340.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.960.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0322.2228.670.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.270.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.410.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.460.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0344.4442.74-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0360.0060.340.010.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.360.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.980.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.980.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.120.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.370.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0363.1666.880.000.01
KansasB120.000.0384.2179.740.000.02
Little RockSB0.060.0322.2225.26-0.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0310.5314.860.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.700.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0325.0028.020.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.640.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0361.9065.160.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.460.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.910.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0363.1657.540.020.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0067.890.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.180.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.620.020.00
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.690.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0363.1666.000.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0370.5969.610.000.01
UMBCAE0.070.0358.8258.360.010.00
USCP120.000.0371.4368.300.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01