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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:39.7
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:68
Current Record:9-2
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:19



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-57.90.12%
25-610.60.62%
24-713.82.87%
23-817.56.67%
22-922.312.15%
21-1028.518.58%
20-1136.620.53%
19-1247.017.92%
18-1359.111.22%
17-1473.06.26%
16-1588.52.24%
15-16103.80.62%
14-17121.20.14%
13-18133.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jackson St. (286.1)SWACH93-58W100%0.0
11-17Hofstra (64.4)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville (336.9)ASunH79-43W100%0.0
11-23South Florida (168.9)AmerH68-65W100%0.0
11-26Richmond (86.4)A10H84-72W100%0.0
11-28Boise St. (60.0)MWCH60-54W100%0.0
12-2Purdue (59.1)B10A66-61L0%0.0
12-6Wake Forest (154.0)ACCH78-65W100%0.0
12-12Charleston Southern (205.8)BSthH86-50W100%0.0
12-14Wofford (62.8)SCH54-55L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee (133.3)SECH83-72W100%0.0
12-20West Virginia (23.4)B12N0-042%-2.3
12-23Louisiana Tech (116.8)CUSAH0-083%11.2
12-30Cincinnati (50.9)AmerH0-076%8.2
1-3Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCH0-082%10.6
1-7Virginia (7.3)ACCA0-013%-13.4
1-11Duke (4.5)ACCH0-029%-6.3
1-14North Carolina (11.4)ACCH0-040%-3.0
1-17Florida St. (208.6)ACCA0-073%7.2
1-22Miami FL (43.8)ACCA0-038%-3.5
1-25Notre Dame (66.8)ACCH0-060%3.0
1-28Clemson (170.0)ACCH0-089%14.2
1-31Georgia Tech (89.2)ACCA0-056%1.8
2-3Wake Forest (154.0)ACCA0-065%4.5
2-11Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-035%-4.7
2-14Louisville (7.3)ACCA0-011%-14.5
2-21Virginia Tech (213.1)ACCH0-092%16.3
2-24North Carolina (11.4)ACCA0-016%-11.7
2-28Boston College (154.7)ACCA0-068%5.4
3-3Clemson (170.0)ACCA0-068%5.5
3-7Syracuse (69.8)ACCH0-070%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC27.7226.0472.9759.8612.745.14
Wake ForestACC4.553.7855.5639.970.51-0.76
VirginiaACC0.003.75100.0086.440.002.73
North CarolinaACC0.003.7370.0072.100.001.65
ClemsonACC0.003.7260.0045.730.00-0.32
Florida St.ACC0.322.2550.0038.600.00-0.51
DukeACC0.002.24100.0088.120.001.71
Georgia TechACC0.002.2477.7852.100.000.09
Notre DameACC0.002.2290.9173.510.001.04
LouisvilleACC0.002.22100.0085.860.001.59
Virginia TechACC0.002.2255.5639.630.00-0.46
SyracuseACC0.002.1966.6759.270.000.41
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1966.6743.120.00-0.30
Miami FLACC0.002.1781.8266.470.000.71
PittsburghACC0.002.1766.6754.000.000.17
South FloridaAmer5.211.7550.0046.410.00-0.13
Jackson St.SWAC5.281.7218.1846.06-3.36-0.14
WoffordSC4.871.7075.0074.932.440.85
HofstraCAA5.211.6987.5081.493.911.07
West VirginiaB120.001.6990.0067.770.000.60
JacksonvilleASun5.241.6911.1118.89-4.08-1.05
Charleston SouthernBSth4.801.6750.0051.880.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.191.6672.7369.150.090.64
RichmondA104.551.6662.5059.181.140.31
CincinnatiAmer0.001.6477.7870.470.000.67
PurdueB104.551.6470.0062.561.820.41
Boise St.MWC4.551.6185.7171.733.250.70
TennesseeSEC4.551.6162.5047.191.14-0.09
SamfordSC0.660.2233.3331.23-0.22-0.08
FloridaSEC0.230.2160.0064.140.050.06
TulaneAmer0.420.1888.8955.090.320.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.1737.5050.60-0.060.00
PresbyterianBSth0.250.170.008.14-0.25-0.14
ArkansasSEC0.230.1677.7871.770.130.07
RutgersB100.000.1660.0034.920.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.1663.6455.560.000.02
UABCUSA0.440.1630.0036.94-0.18-0.04
VCUA100.250.1670.0071.450.100.07
William & MaryCAA0.510.1657.1456.650.070.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1650.0057.700.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1687.5076.810.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1637.5038.43-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.250.1462.5056.220.060.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1371.4347.640.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1380.0064.030.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.250.1370.0060.840.100.03
UCFAmer0.000.1355.5634.700.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.460.1360.0037.150.09-0.03
MinnesotaB100.230.1380.0066.580.140.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1390.0084.460.000.09
RadfordBSth0.250.1155.5659.230.030.02
North FloridaASun0.210.1150.0057.210.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1170.0073.030.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1150.0039.610.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.480.1137.5034.46-0.12-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.1116.6730.30-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1122.2237.12-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.1133.3338.93-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1166.6766.120.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.210.1175.0060.310.100.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1160.0063.510.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.380.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.58-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1170.0071.300.000.05
La SalleA100.000.1150.0049.930.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1060.0055.280.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0028.67-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0095.110.000.09
ProvidenceBE0.000.1072.7353.500.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1050.0045.370.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.100.009.00-0.21-0.09
IndianaB100.000.1080.0057.340.000.02
IowaB100.000.1072.7362.430.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1044.4469.77-0.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1066.6757.890.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.190.1075.0065.210.090.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0078.490.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0035.06-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.320.0920.0041.08-0.19-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0825.0044.57-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0870.0058.740.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0860.0064.800.000.03
MississippiSEC0.320.0870.0052.530.130.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0877.7869.590.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0836.3633.52-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0833.3343.01-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0810.0027.15-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.0814.2945.11-0.16-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0012.00-0.00-0.06
NevadaMWC0.000.0811.1125.05-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0871.4364.140.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0844.4444.53-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.430.0857.1456.380.060.01
FurmanSC0.000.0822.2231.52-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.280.0890.9188.540.230.06
AuburnSEC0.000.0844.4435.91-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0885.7172.890.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0015.18-0.00-0.06
IonaMAAC0.480.0866.6772.800.160.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3349.72-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0877.7869.970.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.370.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0850.0047.740.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.0854.5559.120.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0830.0031.32-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.190.0842.8626.94-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0056.900.000.01
ButlerBE0.250.0880.0072.370.150.04
KansasB120.250.0888.8969.210.200.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.65-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0855.5660.240.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.080.0018.32-0.23-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0034.05-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0811.1144.75-0.20-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0036.23-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0837.5047.90-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0825.0026.38-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.120.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0872.7373.190.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0837.5038.31-0.06-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6744.280.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0850.0053.800.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.56-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.410.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.51-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.580.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.59-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.12-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.81-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0049.970.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0052.190.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.110.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.77-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.250.0544.4440.07-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.250.0575.0057.490.130.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.0566.6754.650.080.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0562.5059.500.000.01
MarquetteBE0.250.0560.0049.590.05-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0520.0029.91-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0560.0071.320.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8637.71-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.87-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0544.4450.85-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.0542.8652.90-0.030.00
MissouriSEC0.210.0544.4431.92-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6737.98-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.370.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.250.0590.0081.790.200.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.430.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0555.5649.770.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0533.3363.11-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1838.45-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.800.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.30-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.050.0014.67-0.25-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.230.0540.0046.66-0.05-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.22-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1453.100.000.00
HowardMEAC0.250.0530.0043.48-0.10-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0588.8963.400.000.01
IUPUISum0.210.0520.0027.11-0.12-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0540.0050.17-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2237.84-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.460.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0510.0018.50-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.250.0590.0078.440.200.03
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.320.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.880.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0590.9153.570.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.69-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0533.3340.96-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.79-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.250.050.0035.39-0.25-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8964.830.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.250.0533.3355.14-0.080.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0066.920.000.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.650.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0590.0055.490.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.230.000.01
WagnerNEC0.250.0514.2933.57-0.18-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.43-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0566.6751.280.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.320.030.0017.19-0.32-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.320.0360.0057.640.060.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.31-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.0318.1831.71-0.14-0.01
IdahoBSky0.280.0337.5050.55-0.070.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.09-0.14-0.02
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0051.83-0.140.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.0362.5057.080.070.00
San DiegoWCC0.280.0354.5557.650.030.00
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0314.2929.35-0.20-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.540.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0350.0073.610.000.01
South DakotaSum0.250.0327.2738.75-0.11-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0064.750.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.160.000.01
DetroitHorz0.250.0344.4448.82-0.03-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0366.6762.500.080.01
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.27-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.65-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.570.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.250.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.250.0390.0067.320.200.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.0344.4449.69-0.03-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.880.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.330.000.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.070.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.210.0333.3345.98-0.07-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.880.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.99-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.210.0366.6768.290.070.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0027.89-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9168.690.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.49-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.34-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.07-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.770.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.170.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.190.0320.0020.26-0.11-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.29-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.680.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.46-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.06-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.200.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4550.81-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.810.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.760.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.60-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.0375.0059.930.090.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.57-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.31-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.56-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.59-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1836.00-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.61-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.32-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.87-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0057.990.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.900.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0058.890.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0081.870.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01