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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:116.4
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:38
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1265.50.06%
18-1378.41.59%
17-1490.39.19%
16-15104.528.61%
15-16119.835.93%
14-17134.920.03%
13-18148.54.35%
12-19159.90.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13William & Mary (40.6)CAAH68-85L0%0.0
11-15South Alabama (256.1)SBH88-70W100%0.0
11-18IUPUI (179.6)SumH79-56W100%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (79.4)P12N79-76L0%0.0
11-24LSU (81.9)SECN83-72W100%0.0
11-27Winthrop (164.9)BSthH87-79W100%0.0
12-1Michigan (47.8)B10H59-66L0%0.0
12-5Bucknell (167.2)PatH99-86W100%0.0
12-13South Florida (244.0)AmerA46-65W100%0.0
12-16High Point (197.9)BSthH76-73W100%0.0
12-19Missouri (218.0)SECA59-73W100%0.0
12-22UNC Greensboro (271.1)SCH58-52W100%0.0
12-29Northeastern (148.7)CAAH72-66W100%0.0
1-2Virginia Tech (129.2)ACCA73-68L0%0.0
1-7Louisville (18.1)ACCH72-77L0%0.0
1-10Wake Forest (125.2)ACCA77-74L0%0.0
1-13Florida St. (46.9)ACCH78-85L0%0.0
1-16North Carolina (10.9)ACCA67-55L0%0.0
1-19Pittsburgh (46.2)ACCA61-78W100%0.0
1-23Duke (18.0)ACCH78-88L0%0.0
1-27Georgia Tech (88.7)ACCH83-90L0%0.0
1-30Miami FL (12.8)ACCH85-69W100%0.0
2-1Florida St. (46.9)ACCA77-73L0%0.0
2-6Duke (18.0)ACCA88-80L0%0.0
2-13Wake Forest (125.2)ACCH0-079%8.8
2-15Virginia (6.3)ACCA0-012%-12.6
2-20Clemson (109.5)ACCH0-058%2.1
2-24North Carolina (10.9)ACCH0-028%-6.4
2-27Syracuse (53.2)ACCA0-029%-5.9
3-2Boston College (233.7)ACCH0-092%15.2
3-5Notre Dame (34.4)ACCA0-023%-7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.2826.0544.6444.05-2.82-3.10
Wake ForestACC2.583.8440.9139.16-0.47-0.83
North CarolinaACC2.403.7881.8278.141.532.13
DukeACC4.393.7872.7369.742.001.49
Florida St.ACC4.403.7366.6762.341.470.92
SyracuseACC0.362.2266.6762.310.120.55
Miami FLACC2.392.2285.7179.401.711.31
Virginia TechACC2.402.2052.1747.540.10-0.11
VirginiaACC0.412.2082.6177.740.271.22
LouisvilleACC2.492.2078.2675.281.411.11
Boston CollegeACC0.362.2030.4327.15-0.14-1.00
ClemsonACC0.542.2058.3358.970.090.39
Notre DameACC0.362.2070.8367.430.150.77
Georgia TechACC2.402.1750.0050.020.000.00
PittsburghACC2.312.1780.0070.641.380.89
UNC GreensboroSC2.231.7528.5732.21-0.95-0.62
High PointBSth2.231.7357.8959.780.350.34
William & MaryCAA2.221.7270.0068.700.890.64
LSUSEC2.181.7268.1862.260.790.42
NortheasternCAA2.231.7047.8348.25-0.10-0.06
WinthropBSth2.141.6768.4265.980.790.54
BucknellPat2.131.6757.1460.320.300.34
South AlabamaSB2.171.6735.0035.41-0.65-0.49
IUPUISum2.131.6441.6741.16-0.36-0.29
MissouriSEC2.081.6436.3631.39-0.57-0.61
Arizona St.P122.081.6152.1750.030.090.00
MichiganB102.081.6168.1865.080.760.49
South FloridaAmer2.081.6120.8320.32-1.22-0.96
ElonCAA0.320.2552.1750.420.010.00
KentuckySEC0.310.2173.9171.560.150.09
GeorgiaSEC0.290.1961.9056.690.070.03
WoffordSC0.180.1943.4846.23-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.180.1852.1755.940.010.02
LibertyBSth0.260.1834.7836.50-0.08-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.1823.8126.57-0.13-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1860.0060.100.030.04
HofstraCAA0.180.1765.2264.210.060.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.240.1763.6460.930.060.04
DelawareCAA0.230.1721.7423.33-0.13-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.140.1659.0953.040.030.01
IndianaB100.180.1679.1774.020.100.08
FloridaSEC0.180.1665.2266.070.060.05
UCLAP120.130.1656.5253.240.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1678.2678.050.080.09
RadfordBSth0.150.1550.0051.290.000.00
DrexelCAA0.100.1413.6418.14-0.07-0.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1440.0039.00-0.04-0.03
IowaB100.140.1382.6180.590.090.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1340.9140.65-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.220.1373.9173.910.110.06
NorthwesternB100.130.1366.6763.440.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1386.3679.140.060.08
TulaneAmer0.170.1333.3332.31-0.06-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.1222.7324.96-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1225.0026.86-0.05-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.1245.4547.56-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.200.1228.5731.26-0.08-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.090.1170.8369.500.040.04
TowsonCAA0.090.1165.2259.750.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1176.1973.410.070.05
SamfordSC0.140.1141.6742.60-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1154.1755.570.010.01
LehighPat0.050.1136.3639.78-0.01-0.02
ColgatePat0.090.1143.4844.80-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1150.0049.850.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.140.1150.0046.710.00-0.01
PurdueB100.140.1179.1776.510.080.06
Appalachian St.SB0.090.1126.0929.19-0.05-0.04
RutgersB100.090.1121.7420.35-0.05-0.06
XavierBE0.140.1191.3084.340.110.07
MarylandB100.090.1187.5083.700.070.07
Michigan St.B100.130.1183.3383.030.090.07
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1156.5260.010.010.02
UtahP120.130.1069.5767.490.050.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1021.7423.39-0.10-0.06
TempleAmer0.090.1063.6459.840.020.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0928.5729.64-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0965.2266.170.030.03
NavyPat0.090.0962.5062.390.020.02
AmericanPat0.140.0830.4331.91-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.0859.0959.350.030.02
VMISC0.090.0815.0016.70-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.090.0870.8368.570.040.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0857.8956.080.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0857.8961.750.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0842.8639.19-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.090.0823.8126.67-0.05-0.04
DenverSum0.130.0854.1751.800.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.1754.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.0864.0064.140.040.02
UCFAmer0.130.0852.3845.690.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.0822.7327.19-0.07-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0826.0927.81-0.02-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0842.1140.18-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0860.0057.950.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0834.7840.93-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.12-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0856.5256.320.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0839.1341.12-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.0815.0026.98-0.10-0.04
BryantNEC0.130.0825.0026.39-0.07-0.04
CaliforniaP120.040.0865.2262.840.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0873.9172.490.020.04
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0845.4551.34-0.010.00
MarquetteBE0.130.0862.5056.200.030.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0860.8760.780.020.02
SMUAmer0.130.0890.9186.160.110.06
TexasB120.090.0866.6762.220.030.02
ArizonaP120.090.0879.1778.350.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0856.0052.770.010.00
HoustonAmer0.130.0869.5766.530.050.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0860.8758.370.020.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0865.2259.020.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0847.8346.89-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.320.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0619.0525.89-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.24-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.090.0654.1754.570.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.690.030.04
FurmanSC0.090.0654.1754.070.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.090.0639.1338.33-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0621.7422.99-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.17-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.090.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0628.5733.37-0.04-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0625.0024.35-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0672.2274.700.040.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0690.4886.880.080.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.36-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0638.8938.50-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.550.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0529.1733.14-0.04-0.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0547.6245.85-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.090.0566.6766.540.030.02
DuquesneA100.090.0563.6456.440.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0529.1733.74-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0569.5767.170.030.02
DePaulBE0.090.0534.7834.54-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0531.8230.47-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.850.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0518.1821.06-0.06-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0563.6462.150.010.01
OhioMAC0.090.0561.9059.450.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0558.3354.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0554.5554.490.000.00
South DakotaSum0.040.0541.6741.24-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0577.2776.870.050.03
Stony BrookAE0.040.0581.8282.630.030.04
UMBCAE0.050.0524.0026.33-0.02-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0527.7829.14-0.04-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.4332.36-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0562.5059.800.020.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0578.2674.430.020.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0535.0038.49-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0550.0049.770.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0545.4554.11-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0534.7835.64-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0586.9686.360.030.04
West VirginiaB120.040.0582.6179.560.030.03
WisconsinB100.000.0560.8755.840.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0524.0025.69-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0540.9136.60-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0559.0958.870.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0570.8370.840.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0543.4842.00-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0565.2267.160.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.1755.070.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0538.1037.70-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0537.5043.36-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.040.0550.0046.620.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0582.6179.410.060.03
USCP120.040.0578.2673.050.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0545.0046.78-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.090.0565.2261.090.030.01
Washington St.P120.090.0536.3631.98-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.090.0573.6874.680.040.03
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.170.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.040.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.790.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.74-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.79-0.03-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.460.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.68-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0363.6459.220.010.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0312.5012.85-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0334.7834.14-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0352.1751.960.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.040.0325.0029.27-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0343.4842.62-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.35-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0359.0959.640.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0339.1337.73-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0379.1780.720.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0325.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.08-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0368.0067.980.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.45-0.03-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.62-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.870.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0333.3335.47-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0376.0076.300.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0366.6767.690.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0313.0413.55-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0336.8441.40-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.260.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.140.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.040.0325.0026.76-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0333.3333.12-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.21-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0340.9143.71-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1453.980.000.00
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.240.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.610.030.02
OregonP120.040.0382.6179.220.030.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0361.9056.420.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0070.940.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0342.1145.70-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0382.6178.890.030.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0330.4331.18-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0373.9169.840.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4368.950.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0325.0023.34-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0372.2275.580.020.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0365.2261.430.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0372.7371.620.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0328.5732.70-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0350.0055.190.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.94-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00