live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:141.0
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:62
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17141.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH81-79W100%0.0
11-13St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH86-61W100%0.0
11-18Montana (221.0)BSkyN85-72W100%0.0
11-20Creighton (26.0)BEN112-94L0%0.0
11-21Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10N73-63W100%0.0
11-26Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH79-77W100%0.0
11-29Illinois (62.0)B10A88-74L0%0.0
12-3Boston University (187.0)PatH77-73W100%0.0
12-10Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH67-55W100%0.0
12-15Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH97-64W100%0.0
12-18Fairfield (180.0)MAACH99-78W100%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH89-57W100%0.0
12-28Rider (198.0)MAACH99-71W100%0.0
12-31Miami FL (41.0)ACCA81-63L0%0.0
1-4Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH104-78W100%0.0
1-8North Carolina (5.0)ACCA107-56L0%0.0
1-11Boston College (219.0)ACCA74-66L0%0.0
1-15Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH76-86L0%0.0
1-17Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH79-74W100%0.0
1-21Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH88-93L0%0.0
1-23Duke (6.0)ACCA82-84W100%0.0
1-29Louisville (7.0)ACCA85-60L0%0.0
2-1Syracuse (84.0)ACCH93-100L0%0.0
2-4Miami FL (41.0)ACCH79-84L0%0.0
2-8Florida St. (14.0)ACCA95-71L0%0.0
2-11Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA88-58L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina (5.0)ACCH73-97L0%0.0
2-18Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH72-81L0%0.0
2-21Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA69-71W100%0.0
2-25Virginia (18.0)ACCH55-70L0%0.0
3-1Clemson (69.0)ACCA78-74L0%0.0
3-7Clemson (69.0)ACCN75-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.0426.0440.7140.71-4.84-4.84
ClemsonACC3.703.7050.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC3.683.6856.6756.670.490.49
North CarolinaACC3.683.6877.4277.422.022.02
Miami FLACC3.683.6863.3363.330.980.98
Georgia TechACC3.653.6551.7251.720.130.13
DukeACC2.372.3779.4179.411.391.39
Virginia TechACC2.222.2270.9770.970.930.93
Florida St.ACC2.212.2175.0075.001.111.11
SyracuseACC2.192.1954.8454.840.210.21
PittsburghACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1925.8125.81-1.06-1.06
Notre DameACC2.192.1972.7372.731.001.00
VirginiaACC2.192.1967.7467.740.780.78
LouisvilleACC2.112.1174.1974.191.021.02
Appalachian St.SB1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
FairfieldMAAC1.631.6355.1755.170.170.17
Georgia SouthernSB1.621.6255.1755.170.170.17
RiderMAAC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Saint Joseph'sA101.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
St. Francis NYNEC1.591.5910.3410.34-1.26-1.26
IllinoisB101.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
Tennessee St.OVC1.581.5855.5655.560.180.18
CreightonBE1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
McNeese St.Slnd1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
MontanaBSky1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
VillanovaBE0.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
TroySB0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
TulaneAmer0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
RadfordBSth0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
NebraskaB100.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Texas St.SB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01