live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:33
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1355.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH98-77W100%0.0
11-12Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA68-57L0%0.0
11-16Campbell (316.0)BSthH81-66W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH72-82L0%0.0
11-26Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH82-62W100%0.0
11-30Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH75-56W100%0.0
12-4Northwestern (123.0)B10H69-48W100%0.0
12-7Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH76-66W100%0.0
12-14Detroit (230.0)HorzH82-79W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee (42.0)SECA58-65W100%0.0
12-21East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH90-79W100%0.0
12-28Missouri (49.0)SECH64-68L0%0.0
12-30UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA64-68W100%0.0
1-4Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH62-74L0%0.0
1-7Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA70-77W100%0.0
1-11Virginia (8.0)ACCH45-76L0%0.0
1-15Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA70-69L0%0.0
1-18Duke (9.0)ACCA95-60L0%0.0
1-20Maryland (78.0)ACCH65-56W100%0.0
1-26Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH80-78W100%0.0
1-29Florida St. (54.0)ACCH74-70W100%0.0
2-1North Carolina (25.0)ACCA84-70L0%0.0
2-8Miami FL (110.0)ACCA55-56W100%0.0
2-11Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH82-67W100%0.0
2-15Syracuse (16.0)ACCA56-55L0%0.0
2-18Clemson (79.0)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
2-22Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA64-71W100%0.0
2-26North Carolina (25.0)ACCH84-85L0%0.0
3-1Miami FL (110.0)ACCH70-85L0%0.0
3-3Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA67-74W100%0.0
3-9Boston College (207.0)ACCH78-68W100%0.0
3-13Miami FL (110.0)ACCN67-58W100%0.0
3-14Syracuse (16.0)ACCN63-66W100%0.0
3-15Duke (9.0)ACCN75-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.1526.1558.3358.334.364.36
Miami FLACC4.944.9453.3353.330.330.33
DukeACC3.603.6075.0075.001.801.80
PittsburghACC3.603.6075.0075.001.801.80
Wake ForestACC3.603.6051.6151.610.120.12
North CarolinaACC3.553.5570.0070.001.421.42
SyracuseACC3.553.5586.6786.672.602.60
Virginia TechACC2.152.1530.0030.00-0.86-0.86
VirginiaACC2.152.1581.8281.821.371.37
ClemsonACC2.122.1261.2961.290.480.48
Florida St.ACC2.102.1061.2961.290.470.47
Georgia TechACC2.082.0850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.082.0848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MarylandACC2.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
Boston CollegeACC2.062.0623.3323.33-1.10-1.10
UNC GreensboroSC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Appalachian St.SC1.591.5920.0020.00-0.96-0.96
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5981.2581.251.001.00
TennesseeSEC1.581.5864.5264.520.460.46
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.571.5783.3383.331.051.05
CampbellBSth1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
East CarolinaCUSA1.571.5746.4346.43-0.11-0.11
MissouriSEC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Long Beach St.BW1.491.4944.8344.83-0.15-0.15
NorthwesternB101.491.4943.7543.75-0.19-0.19
DetroitHorz1.471.4737.9337.93-0.35-0.35
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.471.4773.3373.330.690.69
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.471.4764.5264.520.430.43
DavidsonSC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.170.1713.7913.79-0.13-0.13
VMIBSth0.170.1755.5655.560.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
UCFAmer0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
High PointBSth0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
StetsonASun0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
SamfordSC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
BelmontOVC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ColgatePat0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01