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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:33.0
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:33
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1033.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Miami OH (258.0)MACH97-59W100%0.0
11-15Penn St. (186.0)B10N55-72W100%0.0
11-16Massachusetts (57.0)A10N76-94W100%0.0
11-18Oklahoma St. (27.0)B12N56-76L0%0.0
11-23NC Asheville (217.0)BSthH82-80W100%0.0
11-27Michigan (20.0)B10A79-72L0%0.0
12-4Connecticut (49.0)BEN65-69W100%0.0
12-8Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH80-63W100%0.0
12-15Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH84-62W100%0.0
12-18Stanford (77.0)P12H88-79W100%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H92-73W100%0.0
12-29Western Michigan (128.0)MACH84-68W100%0.0
12-31NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH89-68W100%0.0
1-5Boston College (113.0)ACCA73-78W100%0.0
1-9Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCH83-70W100%0.0
1-12Duke (1.0)ACCH84-76W100%0.0
1-16Maryland (73.0)ACCA51-50L0%0.0
1-20Clemson (185.0)ACCH66-62W100%0.0
1-22Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA86-84L0%0.0
1-26North Carolina (17.0)ACCH91-83W100%0.0
1-29Virginia (76.0)ACCA58-55L0%0.0
2-2Miami FL (4.0)ACCH78-79L0%0.0
2-7Duke (1.0)ACCA98-85L0%0.0
2-10Clemson (185.0)ACCA57-58W100%0.0
2-16Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH90-86W100%0.0
2-19Florida St. (85.0)ACCH84-66W100%0.0
2-23North Carolina (17.0)ACCA76-65L0%0.0
2-27Boston College (113.0)ACCH82-64W100%0.0
3-3Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA57-70W100%0.0
3-6Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH81-66W100%0.0
3-9Florida St. (85.0)ACCA71-67L0%0.0
3-14Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCN80-63W100%0.0
3-15Virginia (76.0)ACCN56-75W100%0.0
3-16Miami FL (4.0)ACCN81-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.2526.2571.2171.2111.1411.14
Miami FLACC3.813.8180.6580.652.332.33
Boston CollegeACC3.753.7551.6151.610.120.12
North CarolinaACC3.743.7470.9770.971.571.57
Virginia TechACC3.723.7243.3343.33-0.50-0.50
Florida St.ACC3.723.7254.8454.840.360.36
Wake ForestACC3.703.7041.3841.38-0.64-0.64
Georgia TechACC3.693.6955.1755.170.380.38
ClemsonACC3.693.6944.8344.83-0.38-0.38
VirginiaACC3.673.6766.6766.671.221.22
DukeACC3.653.6586.6786.672.672.67
MarylandACC2.392.3963.6463.640.650.65
MichiganB101.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
Penn St.B101.581.5833.3333.33-0.53-0.53
MassachusettsA101.571.5767.7467.740.560.56
NC GreensboroSC1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
Cleveland St.Horz1.521.5239.2939.29-0.33-0.33
St. BonaventureA101.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
ConnecticutBE1.521.5268.9768.970.580.58
Miami OHMAC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
Oklahoma St.B121.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
NC AshevilleBSth1.471.4746.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Norfolk St.MEAC1.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
StanfordP121.471.4758.0658.060.240.24
AkronMAC0.170.1780.6580.650.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
CharlotteA100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
MinnesotaB100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
FurmanSC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
High PointBSth0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
The CitadelSC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
ElonSC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
OhioMAC0.140.1472.7372.730.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
PurdueB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
WisconsinB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Michigan St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
NorthwesternB100.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TempleA100.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
La SalleA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
IowaB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1253.8553.850.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.127.147.14-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
West VirginiaB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TexasB120.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DavidsonSC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Virginia Military InstBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.7593.750.060.06
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
George MasonCAA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0413.3313.33-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.040.0462.0762.070.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0429.6329.63-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameBE0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Long IslandNEC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01