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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:39.0
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:9
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH93-58W100%0.0
11-17Hofstra (174.0)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH79-43W100%0.0
11-23South Florida (273.0)AmerH68-65W100%0.0
11-26Richmond (56.0)A10H84-72W100%0.0
11-28Boise St. (40.0)MWCH60-54W100%0.0
12-2Purdue (55.0)B10A66-61L0%0.0
12-6Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH78-65W100%0.0
12-12Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH86-50W100%0.0
12-14Wofford (47.0)SCH54-55L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee (96.0)SECH83-72W100%0.0
12-20West Virginia (24.0)B12N69-83L0%0.0
12-23Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH73-65W100%0.0
12-30Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH60-76L0%0.0
1-3Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH68-50W100%0.0
1-7Virginia (7.0)ACCA61-51L0%0.0
1-11Duke (6.0)ACCH87-75W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina (11.0)ACCH79-81L0%0.0
1-17Florida St. (110.0)ACCA63-72W100%0.0
1-22Miami FL (65.0)ACCA65-60L0%0.0
1-25Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH78-81L0%0.0
1-28Clemson (106.0)ACCH57-68L0%0.0
1-31Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA80-81W100%0.0
2-3Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA88-84L0%0.0
2-11Virginia (7.0)ACCH47-51L0%0.0
2-14Louisville (21.0)ACCA65-74W100%0.0
2-21Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH69-53W100%0.0
2-24North Carolina (11.0)ACCA46-58W100%0.0
2-28Boston College (165.0)ACCA79-63L0%0.0
3-3Clemson (106.0)ACCA61-66W100%0.0
3-7Syracuse (69.0)ACCH71-57W100%0.0
3-11Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCN81-70W100%0.0
3-12Duke (6.0)ACCN77-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.0626.0655.0355.032.622.62
North CarolinaACC3.673.6769.7069.701.441.44
DukeACC3.643.6490.3290.322.932.93
Wake ForestACC3.613.6140.0040.00-0.72-0.72
VirginiaACC3.613.6190.0090.002.892.89
PittsburghACC3.553.5560.0060.000.710.71
ClemsonACC3.543.5451.7251.720.120.12
Florida St.ACC2.252.2553.1253.120.140.14
Notre DameACC2.242.2484.8584.851.561.56
Virginia TechACC2.172.1734.3834.38-0.68-0.68
Boston CollegeACC2.172.1738.7138.71-0.49-0.49
LouisvilleACC2.162.1677.4277.421.191.19
Georgia TechACC2.142.1440.0040.00-0.43-0.43
SyracuseACC2.122.1260.0060.000.420.42
Miami FLACC2.102.1062.5062.500.520.52
South FloridaAmer1.631.6326.6726.67-0.76-0.76
WoffordSC1.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
Jackson St.SWAC1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
HofstraCAA1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
JacksonvilleASun1.591.5925.0025.00-0.79-0.79
West VirginiaB121.591.5970.9770.970.660.66
Louisiana TechCUSA1.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
RichmondA101.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Charleston SouthernBSth1.561.5661.5461.540.360.36
CincinnatiAmer1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
PurdueB101.541.5462.5062.500.380.38
Boise St.MWC1.521.5276.6776.670.810.81
TennesseeSEC1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
SamfordSC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2158.8258.820.040.04
FloridaSEC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
ArkansasSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
TulaneAmer0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
VCUA100.170.1774.2974.290.080.08
UABCUSA0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
RutgersB100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
High PointBSth0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
HoustonAmer0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
FurmanSC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.090.000.00-0.09-0.09
MassachusettsA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0927.2727.27-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ElonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0774.0774.070.030.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00