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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:123.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13William & Mary (67.0)CAAH68-85L0%0.0
11-15South Alabama (240.0)SBH88-70W100%0.0
11-18IUPUI (189.0)SumH79-56W100%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (99.0)P12N79-76L0%0.0
11-24LSU (94.0)SECN83-72W100%0.0
11-27Winthrop (130.0)BSthH87-79W100%0.0
12-1Michigan (56.0)B10H59-66L0%0.0
12-5Bucknell (183.0)PatH99-86W100%0.0
12-13South Florida (230.0)AmerA46-65W100%0.0
12-16High Point (158.0)BSthH76-73W100%0.0
12-19Missouri (222.0)SECA59-73W100%0.0
12-22UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH58-52W100%0.0
12-29Northeastern (109.0)CAAH72-66W100%0.0
1-2Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA73-68L0%0.0
1-7Louisville (17.0)ACCH72-77L0%0.0
1-10Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA77-74L0%0.0
1-13Florida St. (82.0)ACCH78-85L0%0.0
1-16North Carolina (5.0)ACCA67-55L0%0.0
1-19Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA61-78W100%0.0
1-23Duke (20.0)ACCH78-88L0%0.0
1-27Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH83-90L0%0.0
1-30Miami FL (9.0)ACCH85-69W100%0.0
2-1Florida St. (82.0)ACCA77-73L0%0.0
2-6Duke (20.0)ACCA88-80L0%0.0
2-13Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH99-88W100%0.0
2-15Virginia (3.0)ACCA73-53L0%0.0
2-20Clemson (131.0)ACCH77-74W100%0.0
2-24North Carolina (5.0)ACCH68-80L0%0.0
2-27Syracuse (72.0)ACCA75-66L0%0.0
3-2Boston College (250.0)ACCH73-72W100%0.0
3-5Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA89-75L0%0.0
3-8Wake Forest (159.0)ACCN75-72W100%0.0
3-9Duke (20.0)ACCN92-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.1726.1743.5443.54-3.38-3.38
Wake ForestACC5.135.1335.7135.71-1.47-1.47
DukeACC5.115.1166.6766.671.701.70
North CarolinaACC3.673.6781.2581.252.292.29
Florida St.ACC3.573.5756.6756.670.480.48
Notre DameACC2.222.2264.5264.520.640.64
Virginia TechACC2.182.1856.2556.250.270.27
VirginiaACC2.182.1878.1278.121.221.22
Miami FLACC2.152.1580.6580.651.321.32
SyracuseACC2.132.1358.0658.060.340.34
Boston CollegeACC2.132.1322.5822.58-1.17-1.17
PittsburghACC2.122.1266.6766.670.710.71
Georgia TechACC2.112.1156.2556.250.260.26
ClemsonACC2.102.1056.6756.670.280.28
LouisvilleACC2.102.1073.3373.330.980.98
UNC GreensboroSC1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
LSUSEC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
High PointBSth1.621.6266.6766.670.540.54
William & MaryCAA1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
NortheasternCAA1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
BucknellPat1.591.5957.1457.140.230.23
WinthropBSth1.571.5771.4371.430.670.67
South AlabamaSB1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
IUPUISum1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
MissouriSEC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Arizona St.P121.521.5245.1645.16-0.15-0.15
MichiganB101.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
South FloridaAmer1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
ElonCAA0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
KentuckySEC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
ArkansasSEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1857.6957.690.030.03
HofstraCAA0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
WoffordSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
LibertyBSth0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1522.2222.22-0.09-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
FloridaSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
VCUA100.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
NorthwesternB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
TowsonCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
RutgersB100.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
UtahP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CornellIvy0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01