live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:131.2
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:253
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-517.00.02%
23-626.00.05%
22-736.80.24%
21-847.10.94%
20-959.72.54%
19-1073.76.25%
18-1190.411.71%
17-12108.416.40%
16-13127.518.38%
15-14147.418.27%
14-15167.713.01%
13-16187.07.53%
12-17206.23.39%
11-18225.20.96%
10-19245.20.28%
9-20262.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10VMI (319.7)SCH102-67W100%0.0
11-12Charleston Southern (287.3)BSthH78-56W100%0.0
11-14Bryant (305.7)NECH95-72W100%0.0
11-16Presbyterian (343.3)BSthH86-68W100%0.0
11-22Arizona (10.4)P12N0-017%-11.2
11-29Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-059%2.6
12-2South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACH0-098%24.9
12-9UMKC (283.1)WACH0-096%21.0
12-16UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCH0-084%11.8
12-19Robert Morris (288.7)NECH0-096%20.5
12-22Jacksonville (315.7)ASunH0-096%21.6
12-30Clemson (64.3)ACCA0-034%-4.8
1-3Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA0-016%-12.1
1-6Duke (6.8)ACCH0-020%-10.2
1-11Clemson (64.3)ACCH0-054%1.2
1-14Virginia (15.8)ACCA0-014%-13.0
1-18Wake Forest (166.4)ACCH0-071%6.5
1-21Miami FL (24.3)ACCH0-030%-6.2
1-24Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCA0-059%2.9
1-27North Carolina (9.5)ACCA0-010%-15.3
2-3Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH0-031%-6.1
2-7Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-024%-8.4
2-10North Carolina (9.5)ACCH0-022%-9.3
2-14Syracuse (45.7)ACCA0-027%-7.2
2-17Wake Forest (166.4)ACCA0-052%0.6
2-20Boston College (152.8)ACCH0-068%5.7
2-25Florida St. (40.2)ACCH0-038%-3.8
3-1Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-033%-5.2
3-3Louisville (28.0)ACCH0-037%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC33.3326.10100.0047.4133.33-1.35
North CarolinaACC0.004.07100.0077.730.002.26
Wake ForestACC0.004.0325.0034.720.00-1.23
ClemsonACC0.004.03100.0054.890.000.39
Notre DameACC0.004.03100.0073.480.001.89
Georgia TechACC0.002.430.0057.210.000.35
Florida St.ACC0.002.40100.0068.400.000.88
Boston CollegeACC0.002.4075.0045.760.00-0.20
DukeACC0.002.40100.0083.690.001.62
Virginia TechACC0.002.3775.0061.480.000.55
SyracuseACC0.002.37100.0061.890.000.56
PittsburghACC0.002.3733.3334.360.00-0.74
LouisvilleACC0.002.37100.0067.100.000.81
VirginiaACC0.002.36100.0073.710.001.12
Miami FLACC0.002.33100.0074.680.001.15
PresbyterianBSth14.581.910.0016.61-14.58-1.28
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.910.0058.060.000.31
Charleston SouthernBSth12.501.8850.0036.720.00-0.50
VMISC14.581.8550.0028.510.00-0.80
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.850.0035.190.00-0.55
BryantNEC12.501.810.0031.24-12.50-0.68
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.780.0037.120.00-0.46
JacksonvilleASun0.001.750.0030.620.00-0.68
Penn St.B100.001.75100.0061.050.000.39
ArizonaP120.001.72100.0083.740.001.16
UMKCWAC0.001.720.0027.040.00-0.79
Western CarolinaSC0.000.240.0021.380.00-0.14
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.220.0064.600.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.2233.3360.630.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.210.0039.740.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.20100.0059.870.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2025.0047.800.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.190.0043.690.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.190.0017.060.00-0.13
RadfordBSth0.000.1950.0046.150.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.1850.0059.440.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1833.3347.970.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.1833.3330.460.00-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1866.6748.280.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC2.080.18100.0048.352.08-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.170.0030.910.00-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1733.3359.680.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.160.0055.380.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.160.0051.410.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.1633.3347.540.00-0.01
DavidsonA102.080.15100.0070.082.080.06
IndianaB100.000.1533.3341.220.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1425.0040.490.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.140.0044.950.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.140.0037.310.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun2.080.130.0039.01-2.08-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.007.670.00-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0038.990.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1333.3357.840.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1375.0076.250.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.12100.0075.130.000.06
MichiganB100.000.12100.0061.710.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0077.820.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1275.0049.860.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.700.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0022.840.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1125.0045.730.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.1166.6749.940.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.100.0042.670.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1050.0060.430.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0036.690.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.090.0031.380.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0950.0048.680.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.090.0045.640.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0035.450.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0048.070.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.04
DuquesneA102.080.09100.0047.672.08-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.400.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.09100.0080.230.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.09100.0054.140.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0059.240.000.02
RichmondA100.000.090.0030.280.00-0.03
NavyPat2.080.0950.0052.870.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
UCLAP120.000.09100.0064.910.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0925.0054.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.09100.0058.250.000.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0055.040.000.01
RutgersB100.000.09100.0046.880.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.080.0037.060.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0069.320.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3350.150.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0052.380.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.060.0061.460.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
UtahP120.000.06100.0067.160.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.06100.0072.510.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
GeorgiaSEC2.080.06100.0053.242.080.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.630.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0325.0038.080.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.030.0038.210.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3350.220.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01