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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:109.7
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:110
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-828.50.02%
22-933.70.20%
21-1040.20.61%
20-1151.21.73%
19-1262.35.31%
18-1376.111.26%
17-1490.616.75%
16-15105.820.80%
15-16121.618.75%
14-17138.113.65%
13-18154.57.07%
12-19172.02.71%
11-20188.80.93%
10-21208.70.18%
9-22225.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH81-79W100%0.0
11-13St. Francis NY (327.4)NECH86-61W100%0.0
11-18Montana (243.3)BSkyN85-72W100%0.0
11-20Creighton (23.9)BEN112-94L0%0.0
11-21Saint Joseph's (127.9)A10N73-63W100%0.0
11-26Loyola Chicago (143.8)MVCH79-77W100%0.0
11-29Illinois (93.1)B10A88-74L0%0.0
12-3Boston University (178.4)PatH77-73W100%0.0
12-10Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH0-072%6.9
12-15Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH0-090%15.7
12-18Fairfield (144.8)MAACH0-078%9.3
12-22McNeese St. (326.5)SlndH0-098%24.2
12-28Rider (205.6)MAACH0-084%12.2
12-31Miami FL (46.9)ACCA0-016%-12.1
1-4Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCH0-043%-2.0
1-7North Carolina (5.3)ACCA0-04%-20.5
1-11Boston College (233.9)ACCA0-067%5.3
1-15Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCH0-074%7.6
1-17Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH0-055%1.4
1-21Wake Forest (54.7)ACCH0-048%-0.7
1-23Duke (9.9)ACCA0-06%-18.6
1-29Louisville (7.2)ACCA0-08%-17.2
2-1Syracuse (52.7)ACCH0-033%-5.3
2-4Miami FL (46.9)ACCH0-031%-5.8
2-8Florida St. (40.7)ACCA0-019%-10.7
2-11Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA0-028%-6.9
2-15North Carolina (5.3)ACCH0-012%-14.2
2-18Notre Dame (23.3)ACCH0-022%-9.2
2-21Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-054%1.4
2-25Virginia (8.6)ACCH0-014%-13.1
3-1Clemson (70.5)ACCA0-026%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC28.4026.0573.3345.2313.26-2.49
North CarolinaACC0.003.7387.5081.280.002.33
Georgia TechACC0.003.7357.1436.020.00-1.04
Miami FLACC0.003.7375.0065.360.001.15
Wake ForestACC0.003.7375.0053.960.000.30
DukeACC0.002.3188.8977.880.001.29
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2257.1429.680.00-0.90
SyracuseACC0.002.2271.4366.680.000.74
ClemsonACC0.002.2271.4354.200.000.19
Florida St.ACC0.392.2287.5064.710.290.65
VirginiaACC0.452.2287.5078.240.331.25
Virginia TechACC0.002.2085.7163.210.000.58
Notre DameACC0.002.19100.0077.360.001.20
PittsburghACC0.002.1975.0049.310.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.002.1787.5075.030.001.09
Appalachian St.SB0.001.6916.6730.58-0.00-0.66
FairfieldMAAC0.001.6971.4361.240.000.38
Georgia SouthernSB6.251.6750.0045.160.00-0.16
RiderMAAC0.001.6750.0049.920.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA106.701.6450.0046.860.00-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC6.701.6483.3361.024.460.36
St. Francis NYNEC6.251.6416.6727.66-4.17-0.73
Boston UniversityPat6.251.6450.0056.860.000.22
IllinoisB106.251.6457.1449.010.89-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.6485.7171.660.000.71
CreightonBE6.251.61100.0075.836.250.83
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.610.0018.22-0.00-1.03
MontanaBSky6.251.6128.5749.70-2.68-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1937.5044.39-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.450.1957.1450.420.060.00
VillanovaBE0.450.19100.0084.840.450.13
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1975.0070.620.000.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1725.0038.83-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1625.0034.40-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.1666.6746.420.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1466.6766.340.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1412.5023.93-0.00-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.390.1442.8645.94-0.06-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.1471.4363.170.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1440.0041.12-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1387.5070.890.000.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1357.1464.030.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.1344.4434.65-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.450.1328.5734.28-0.19-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1375.0066.170.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.450.1375.0056.590.220.02
WisconsinB100.390.1377.7876.040.220.07
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0043.390.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1271.4363.930.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0058.040.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0060.620.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1125.0027.53-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.450.1142.8650.09-0.060.00
PurdueB100.000.1175.0075.340.000.06
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3333.36-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.1133.3356.57-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.1112.5029.71-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1125.0035.09-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1133.3352.84-0.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1128.5736.95-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1137.5052.01-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1137.5033.74-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3354.47-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.890.00-0.01
VCUA100.390.1175.0073.060.200.05
WoffordSC0.000.110.0034.81-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.1137.5037.74-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC1.230.1175.0048.500.61-0.00
RichmondA100.000.1150.0048.210.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.12-0.00-0.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1187.5075.240.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0020.75-0.00-0.06
IndianaB100.000.1087.5074.490.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.390.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0050.840.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.58-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.970.000.01
TroySB0.000.0942.8636.19-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0871.4351.460.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.12-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0860.0067.760.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0822.2226.33-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0842.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0837.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.130.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0875.0086.710.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.450.080.0034.27-0.45-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.450.0871.4355.820.190.01
MaineAE0.450.0814.2924.15-0.32-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.840.080.0022.31-0.84-0.04
Washington St.P121.230.0842.8628.98-0.18-0.03
WinthropBSth0.390.0850.0071.070.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0842.8642.62-0.06-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1452.030.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.460.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0822.2241.71-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0871.4356.260.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0825.0047.82-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0850.0041.310.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0855.5647.890.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.330.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0871.4358.600.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0812.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5069.130.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0837.5037.03-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.800.000.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.080.0038.27-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0041.540.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.390.0642.8638.63-0.06-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0019.67-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.0657.1471.940.060.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0625.0037.38-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.890.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.840.0571.4368.980.360.02
MercerSC0.450.0542.8647.76-0.06-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.890.050.0018.64-0.89-0.03
ToledoMAC0.450.0537.5047.91-0.11-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0533.3339.61-0.15-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.050.0020.55-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.390.0528.5732.62-0.17-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.440.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.92-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.550.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6735.430.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0516.6730.34-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0542.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.070.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0566.6755.540.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.170.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1148.19-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0583.3371.480.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0540.0058.82-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3339.94-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0520.0035.47-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.390.0585.7183.660.280.04
BuffaloMAC0.390.0533.3352.21-0.130.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0520.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.390.050.0021.22-0.39-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0550.0040.600.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0555.5658.610.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
TempleAmer0.450.0575.0064.920.220.02
YaleIvy0.000.0542.8663.41-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0571.4373.040.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.740.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.58-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.450.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0550.0052.760.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0550.0062.380.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0571.4354.310.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0540.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.050.0022.01-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0516.6749.65-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.01-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.390.0566.6754.050.130.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.65-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.68-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.450.030.0022.58-0.45-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.450.030.0035.95-0.45-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.450.0360.0069.120.090.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.450.0355.5646.970.05-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.390.0357.1453.990.060.00
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.350.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UMKCWAC0.390.0362.5052.330.100.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0322.2221.23-0.25-0.02
VMISC0.000.030.0016.78-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.390.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
USCP120.390.03100.0076.680.390.01